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GCCSI Annual Meeting
Seoul, S. Korea
October 8-10,2013

Recent
Developments and
Opportunities for
CCS
A Look at California

Elizabeth Burton
Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory and
WESTCARB
eburton@lbl.gov
(925)899-6397
Why Look at California?




7th largest global economy
17-18th largest carbon emitter globally
In top 5 globally for carbon efficiency:







lowest carbon emissions per capita
highest economic output per ton of
emissions

Climate and CO2 emissions reductions
policies in place
Studies of energy future show clear
need for CCS to meet goals

2
Substantial CCUS/ CO2EOR opportunity
Type of Oil
Reservoir

# Potential
Fields

Estimated Capacity
(MMT CO2)

Miscible

121

3,186

Immiscible

18

178

CO2 must come from captured
anthropogenic sources
Price point estimated $40/tonne
3
BUT—CCS Projects Are Not
Happening--WHY NOT?

4
California’s Climate Policies


2005 Governor’s Executive Order, S-3-05,
established target GHG reduction levels
 2020:

roll back to 1990 levels (~436 million
metric tons) (became law as Assembly Bill
32—Global Warming Solutions Act)
 2050: 80% below 1990 levels—not ―law‖


Many policies enacted to meet 2020 goals
include CCS only nominally:
 Emissions

Performance Standards (EPS)
 Renewable portfolio standards (33%) (RPS)
 Low carbon fuel standard (LCFS)
 Cap-and-trade
5
Should CCS ―wait‖ until after 2020?

~ 12MMT CO2/yr

6
CCS Must Adapt to Changes in Point
Sources
Today:




In-state: natural gas baseload
power, refineries and cement
plants
Imported power from coal plants

Tomorrow:







Divesture of all coal-fired
power contracts by 2030
Retirement of all natural gas
plants with once-through
cooling by 2020
More rapid response fossil
power, not baseload
Geographic shifts in
demand inland
Sea level rise impacts on
coastal infrastructure?

7
RPS means large fractions of intermittent energy
sources: fossil fuels must provide load balancing
Tehachapi Wind Generation, April 2009
Source:

Solar PV output
on partly
cloudy day

10-second sampling
Source: NERC Report - Accommodating High Levels of Variable Generation –
March 2009

Courtesy of M. Brown, CIEE
8
Meeting 2050 goals requires CCS on electricity
to create net negative emissions

Scenarios from California’s Energy Future: The View to 2050
9
So what has happened?


Projects—




two cancelled, one remains

Policy—





Interest in reports
Attempts at legislation
R&D funding declining
Inclusion of CCS very limited
in 2020 planning documents

Hydrogen Energy California
(HECA)

10
What must happen?









Write CCS methodologies for
compliance
Eliminate short-term (2020) focus
Fully integrate CCS in future
energy policy and infrastructure
planning
Define regulatory agency roles
and jurisdictions
Include CCS in carbon reduction
technologies that qualify for
incentives, loading orders,
subsidies, etc. to ―force‖ a
business case

External
Advocacy
and
Technical
Input

11
Conclusions
California is a good test case for studying challenges
to CCS deployment
California needs expertise and advocacy NOW to
assure CCS for 2050
Thank you
감사합니다
Contact information:
eburton@lbl.gov

12

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Panel 4. CCS technology - Dr Elizabeth Burton

  • 1. GCCSI Annual Meeting Seoul, S. Korea October 8-10,2013 Recent Developments and Opportunities for CCS A Look at California Elizabeth Burton Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and WESTCARB eburton@lbl.gov (925)899-6397
  • 2. Why Look at California?    7th largest global economy 17-18th largest carbon emitter globally In top 5 globally for carbon efficiency:     lowest carbon emissions per capita highest economic output per ton of emissions Climate and CO2 emissions reductions policies in place Studies of energy future show clear need for CCS to meet goals 2
  • 3. Substantial CCUS/ CO2EOR opportunity Type of Oil Reservoir # Potential Fields Estimated Capacity (MMT CO2) Miscible 121 3,186 Immiscible 18 178 CO2 must come from captured anthropogenic sources Price point estimated $40/tonne 3
  • 4. BUT—CCS Projects Are Not Happening--WHY NOT? 4
  • 5. California’s Climate Policies  2005 Governor’s Executive Order, S-3-05, established target GHG reduction levels  2020: roll back to 1990 levels (~436 million metric tons) (became law as Assembly Bill 32—Global Warming Solutions Act)  2050: 80% below 1990 levels—not ―law‖  Many policies enacted to meet 2020 goals include CCS only nominally:  Emissions Performance Standards (EPS)  Renewable portfolio standards (33%) (RPS)  Low carbon fuel standard (LCFS)  Cap-and-trade 5
  • 6. Should CCS ―wait‖ until after 2020? ~ 12MMT CO2/yr 6
  • 7. CCS Must Adapt to Changes in Point Sources Today:   In-state: natural gas baseload power, refineries and cement plants Imported power from coal plants Tomorrow:      Divesture of all coal-fired power contracts by 2030 Retirement of all natural gas plants with once-through cooling by 2020 More rapid response fossil power, not baseload Geographic shifts in demand inland Sea level rise impacts on coastal infrastructure? 7
  • 8. RPS means large fractions of intermittent energy sources: fossil fuels must provide load balancing Tehachapi Wind Generation, April 2009 Source: Solar PV output on partly cloudy day 10-second sampling Source: NERC Report - Accommodating High Levels of Variable Generation – March 2009 Courtesy of M. Brown, CIEE 8
  • 9. Meeting 2050 goals requires CCS on electricity to create net negative emissions Scenarios from California’s Energy Future: The View to 2050 9
  • 10. So what has happened?  Projects—   two cancelled, one remains Policy—     Interest in reports Attempts at legislation R&D funding declining Inclusion of CCS very limited in 2020 planning documents Hydrogen Energy California (HECA) 10
  • 11. What must happen?      Write CCS methodologies for compliance Eliminate short-term (2020) focus Fully integrate CCS in future energy policy and infrastructure planning Define regulatory agency roles and jurisdictions Include CCS in carbon reduction technologies that qualify for incentives, loading orders, subsidies, etc. to ―force‖ a business case External Advocacy and Technical Input 11
  • 12. Conclusions California is a good test case for studying challenges to CCS deployment California needs expertise and advocacy NOW to assure CCS for 2050 Thank you 감사합니다 Contact information: eburton@lbl.gov 12