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THE NEXT FORTY YEARS:the challenge of climate change                               Robert Zougmoré                        ...
Outline• Challenges due to climate change• The CGIAR research program: CCAFS• Climate Smart Agriculture: the  solution
Challenge 1:Food security
Greater demand for food due   to population & income growthIn order to meetglobal demands,  we will need  60-70%      food...
The yield gap and its’ limitations                                Biophysical limitations   Potential                    -...
“Unchecked climate change will result in a      20% increase in malnourished children by      2050,” relative to the full ...
Challenge 2: Adaptation to CC
Signs of Hope:Rehabilitation, Prevention
440                        400                                                                                    now     ...
The concentration of  GHGs is rising                       Long-term implications                        for the climate a...
IPCC PROJECTIONS FOR AFRICA•   CO2 enrichment•   Temperature increase of 1.5 to 4 ⁰C in this century•   Fewer colder days ...
Crop suitability will fall in many areas% change  -95 to -31  -30 to -11       50 crops, to 2050  -10 to -1  0  1 to 29  3...
Length of growing season is         likely to decline..                                    Length of growing              ...
• Greater frequency of extreme events• More severe extreme events
Climate change will add                             greatly to price increases…% price increase 2010-2050                 ...
Challenge 3: Reducingthe agricultural footprint
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE     ON AGRICULTURE                             CROPS  SEA LEVEL RISE                            ...
CCAFS:working inpartnershipRegional organizations(e.g. CORAF, FARA, ASARECA)Continental initiatives (e.g.CAADP)Meteorologi...
The CGIAR Research CentersWhere is the research being done?   >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices  Lead cente...
CCAFSobjectives             1.Identify and develop pro-              poor adaptation and              mitigation practices...
Place-based field work                                                            Indo-                                   ...
A “new” climatesmart agriculture    is needed
To makeclimate-smart         1.Tools to makeagriculture     investment choices              2.Incentives to improvea reali...
Creative thinking & wild bets                  Forcing by target environment                                  Intelligent ...
Farmers efforts need to be supported by  policies, incentives and knowledge
VISION• Agriculture becomes the  centre-piece of UNFCCC COP• Empower farmers and  institutions through regional  knowledge...
1. Climate change has arrived                                Thank you2. We need planned,  accelerated and  transformative...
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The next forty years icrisat 40th anniversary robert [compatibility mode]

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On ICRISAT 40 years anniversary ceremony at the Regional office for West and Central Africa in Bamako (Mali), Dr Robert ZOUGMORE made an acclaimed presentation that gave prospective scenarios and challenges for agriculture and food security in the coming 40 years and suggested ways and strategies for climate smart agriculture.

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The next forty years icrisat 40th anniversary robert [compatibility mode]

  1. THE NEXT FORTY YEARS:the challenge of climate change Robert Zougmoré Regional Program Leader CCAFS West Africa
  2. Outline• Challenges due to climate change• The CGIAR research program: CCAFS• Climate Smart Agriculture: the solution
  3. Challenge 1:Food security
  4. Greater demand for food due to population & income growthIn order to meetglobal demands, we will need 60-70% food by 2050.
  5. The yield gap and its’ limitations Biophysical limitations Potential - Soil fertility yield - Water(Experimentation) - Germplasm -etc Which inputs are lacking? Yield gap Socio economic and policy limitations - Knowledge - Credit Availability - Input/output Market access Actual - Policy, e.t.c yield Why inputs are not used?
  6. “Unchecked climate change will result in a 20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario.-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS
  7. Challenge 2: Adaptation to CC
  8. Signs of Hope:Rehabilitation, Prevention
  9. 440 400 now 360 For 650,000 years, CO2 has never been above this line, …..until nowCO2 parts per million 320 280 240 200 160 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Years before today NASA
  10. The concentration of GHGs is rising Long-term implications for the climate and for crop suitability
  11. IPCC PROJECTIONS FOR AFRICA• CO2 enrichment• Temperature increase of 1.5 to 4 ⁰C in this century• Fewer colder days and nights• Frequent hot days and nights• Arid areas will become drier and humid areas wetter• Increase in droughts and floods• Sea level rise• High levels of desertification and soil salinization in some countries
  12. Crop suitability will fall in many areas% change -95 to -31 -30 to -11 50 crops, to 2050 -10 to -1 0 1 to 29 30 to 47 48 to 98 Andrew Jarvis, CIAT/CCAFS
  13. Length of growing season is likely to decline.. Length of growing period (%) >20% loss To 2090, taking 18 5-20% loss climate models No change 5-20% gain >20% gain Four degree worldThornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS
  14. • Greater frequency of extreme events• More severe extreme events
  15. Climate change will add greatly to price increases…% price increase 2010-2050 Maize Rice WheatNelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS
  16. Challenge 3: Reducingthe agricultural footprint
  17. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE CROPS SEA LEVEL RISE LIVESTOCK IMPACTS FISHERIESPEST & DISEASES NATURAL BIODIVERSITY RESOURCES
  18. CCAFS:working inpartnershipRegional organizations(e.g. CORAF, FARA, ASARECA)Continental initiatives (e.g.CAADP)Meteorological, development,capacity organizations(e.g. AGRHYMET, WMO,START)National research & extensionState sectoral institutionsNGOs, Private sector, FOs
  19. The CGIAR Research CentersWhere is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices Lead center - CIAT
  20. CCAFSobjectives 1.Identify and develop pro- poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. 2.Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels.
  21. Place-based field work Indo- Gangetic Plains: There is risk of heatWest stress, meltingAfrica: East glaciers, and sea levelExtreme rainfall variability Africa: rise; the intensity andimpedes precipitation Climate change will likely probability of extremepredictions, but the Sahel intensify surface and events will likelywill likely experience groundwater stress. increase.shorter growing periods. Regional Program Leader Regional Leader:Regional Program Leader: : Pramod AggarwalRobert Zougmoré James Kinyangi
  22. A “new” climatesmart agriculture is needed
  23. To makeclimate-smart 1.Tools to makeagriculture investment choices 2.Incentives to improvea reality: uptake 3.Research to reduce GHG emissions and increase productivity under climate change
  24. Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment Intelligent CHANGEStrategic choices choice of population Knowledg s TPE Ideotype analysis e& Intelligent concept Future intuition systems phenotypinMethodology g designs Gene/allel Function, Modeling ediscovery regulation,Search Biparental phénotype CCAFS (CRP7) Diversity Pops Panels Marker Marker validation, activity 1.2: developmt Integration . , Breeding strategies GxExM & ideotypes for Molecula Con- r ventional 2030 horizonApplication breeding breeding
  25. Farmers efforts need to be supported by policies, incentives and knowledge
  26. VISION• Agriculture becomes the centre-piece of UNFCCC COP• Empower farmers and institutions through regional knowledge networks (“From satellite to cell phone”)
  27. 1. Climate change has arrived Thank you2. We need planned, accelerated and transformative adaptation3. There are some emerging opportunities4. A “new” climate-smart agriculture is needed5. A major push is needed on climate risk management6.Farmers efforts need to be supported by policies, incentives and knowledge

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