This document summarizes trends in the Scottish labor market from 2007-2015. It finds that while employment has increased, workers are more likely to be in insecure forms of work like part-time, temporary, or self-employed positions. Median wages have also collapsed over this period. The document outlines diverging approaches between the UK coalition government, which promotes labor market flexibility, and the Scottish government, which advocates for social partnership, fair work policies like living wages, and empowering workers. It acknowledges barriers to reforming Scotland's labor market due to entrenched asymmetries of power and a lack of social partnership traditions.

1. Labour market trends and policy,
Scotland 2015
Stephen Boyd, STUC
Oxfam Decent Work Seminar
25 March 2015

2. THE EMPLOYMENT BOOM?
PART 1

3. Scottish Labour Market 2015
• Relatively high employment (though yet to
achieve pre-recession rate), falling
unemployment (though still 50k above pre-
recession level)
• Workers less likely to be full-time/employees
• More likely to be part-time, temporary, self-
employed, under-employed
• Rapid increase in insecure forms of work (but
poor information!)
• Unprecedented sustained collapse in median
wage

4. Employees, self-employed (000s),
Scotland, 2007-2014
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
2,080
2,100
2,120
2,140
2,160
2,180
2,200
2,220
2,240
2,260
2,280
Employees (LH axis) self-employed (RH axis)

5. Full-time, part-time jobs (000s),
Scotland, 2007-2014
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
1,650
1,700
1,750
1,800
1,850
1,900
1,950
Full-time (LH axis) Part-time (RH axis)

6. Underemployment, Scotland, 2004-2013
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

7. Change in employment rate (%) by age
group, Scotland, 2004-2014
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
16-24 25 - 34 35 - 49 50 - 64 65+

8. Real median wage (gross weekly earnings adjusted by both CPI
and RPI inflation) by gender and job type, Scotland, 2009-2014

9. In employment on a zero-hour
contract, UK, 2000-2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (1) 2014 (2)

10. Percentage of people in employment
on a zero-hour contract
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
UK2 England N East N West Y & H E Mid W Mid East London South East South
West
Wales Scotland

11. Employees feeling tense, worried, uneasy ‘all’, ‘most’ or
‘some’ of the time by usual weekly working hours (%),
WERS 2011

12. Spend (% of GDP) on active labour
market programmes, 2001-2011
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
EU (28 countries)
Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
Austria
Finland
Sweden
United Kingdom

13. REMARKABLE SURGE IN WOMEN’S
EMPLOYMENT

14. Change in 16-64yrs employment rate
(%), Nov-Jan 2013 to Nov-Jan 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
NE NW Y&H EM WM East London SE SW Wales Scot
Men Women

15. 16-64 years employment rate by
gender, Scotland, 1992-2015
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
Men Women
76.5%,
1992
80.3%,
2007 76.0%,
2015
61.5%,
1992
70.2%,
2008
72.2%
2015

16. LABOUR MARKET POLICY
PART 2

17. Diverging approaches
Coalition
• Promote and extend flexibility of UK model
• Widen asymmetries of economic power; anti
workplace democracy
Scottish Government
• Social partnership
• Fair Work
• Living Wage
• Working Together Review
• Cabinet Secretary for Fair Work, Skills and Training

18. Programme for Government
“We [also] need to make sure that those in
work get fairly rewarded…A thriving economy
depends on well-motivated, better paid
workers. Our strong support for business and
our measures to reduce inequality go hand in
hand. Our society will be all the fairer and more
successful when we end the blight of low pay”.
Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister, November 2014

19. Programme for Government
Commitments
• Range of measures to ‘expand the living
wage’
• Publish statutory guidance by end 2015 on
how workforce-related matters should be
taken into account in public contracts
• Gender balance on boards
• Business Pledge

20. Fair Work Convention
• “will be a powerful advocate of the
partnership approach which characterises
industrial relations in Scotland at their best”
• “will prioritise the role of the Living Wage and
develop a Fair Work Framework for Scotland”

21. Scotland’s Economic Strategy
• “Promote Fair Work and build a labour market
that provides sustainable and well-paid jobs”
• “Develop with key partners, such as business
organisations and trade unions, innovative
approaches to developing progressive workplace
practices”
• “Bringing more people into the labour market is
key to tackling poverty, inequality and social
deprivation and improving health and wellbeing”

23. Barriers
• Starting from a bad place: deeply entrenched asymmetries
of economic power (relatively low TU membership and
collective bargaining coverage)
• UK’s distinct model of shareholder capitalism (uniquely
febrile market for corporate control; poor corporate
governance etc)
• Lack of capacity in key institutions: social partners,
academia
• No tradition of social partnership
• Employer organisations: atomised, unrepresentative,
ideological, poorly resourced (no analytical capability
between them)
• Ownership and control too often beyond Scotland’s borders