Solar Photovoltaics is disruptive leading to death spiral, which need new business models and solutions. Showed consequences of disruption, especially in Australia, leading to Duck Curves. Proposed solutions with energy storage and other options.

1. Overcoming Duck Curve &
Peak shaving using Energy Storage
All Energy 2016,
Melbourne Convention & Exhibition Centre
Melbourne, Oct 5, 2016
Dr Ravinder Soin
Midnight Energy Pty Ltd
1

2. 1. Solar PV – Disruptive Technology
2. Consequences of disruption – Duck
Curve?
3. Overcoming Duck Curve with Energy
Storage
4. Other opportunities for peak shaving
5. Q & A
2
Outline

3. Solar PV – Disruptive Technology
FRV Moore 56MWp Solar Farm, NSW,
Australia
MW Scale PV Projects – increased penetration 2003+
3
Q-Cells, 91 MW Germany Existing: 338MWp
Planned: 20 plants, 740MWp
AGL 102MWp Solar Farm, Nyngan, NSW, Australia

4. Distributed Power Systems – Residential and Commercial Roof Top
Solar PV – Disruptive Technology
4

5. Source: GTM Research
Solar PV – Disruptive Technology
Global 700GW by 2020
5

6. Solar PV – Disruptive Technology
Australia Snapshot Q3-2016
Total installed 5.4 GW
National Avg 18% with PV, Max 40%
Density: 30%
Capacity: 1586MW
29%
683MW
23%
623MW
Australian PV Institute (APVI) Solar Map, funded by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, accessed
from pv-map.apvi.org.au on 26 September 2016.
6
15%
1301MW

7. Solar PV – Disruptive Technology
Australia forecast – AEMO 2016 to 2036
Source: AEMO – NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT, JUNE 2016
7

8. Source: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/wind-and-solar-become-new-base-load-power-for-south-australia-99364
8
(1) After Northern brown coal generator shutdown; (2) PV substantial contribution ~680MW
Australia – South Australia – The Champion State ~45% RE
Solar PV – Disruptive Technology

9. Consequences of disruption – Duck Curve
Consequences of Disruption - California
Source: California ISO
9

10. Consequences of Disruption – California à Camel to Duck
Challenge: Manage the Duck prior to 2020 Targets
Source: http://www.vox.com/2016/2/10/10960848/solar-energy-duck-curve
10
Consequences of disruption – Duck Curve

11. Source: https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2016/05/02/the-duck-has-landed/
11
The Duck has landed in 2016 – 4 years early
Consequences of disruption – Duck Curve

12. Germany – overgeneration and maintaining stability
Consequences of Disruption – High RE
Load ~ 45 GW daytime – Wind >20GW, Solar ~10GWà Conventional power ~10GW
for 15 hours at “half must run” level for stability
Source: www.energy-charts.de
12

13. Consequences of Disruption – PV
South Australia – will achieve Duck Curve by 2018 (estimate)
13Source: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/rooftop-solar-reshapes-energy-market-in-south-australia-18272
305MW

14. Consequences of Disruption – PV
South Australia – Duck Curve by 2024-25 – PV
14Source: http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/rooftop-solar-to-cut-total-grid-demand-to-zero-in-south-australia-32943
Rooftop PV contribution à AEMO medium growth forecast
overgeneration

15. Consequences of Disruption
South Australia – Yin & Yang of Wind Power & Solar PV - Prices
15Source: http://www.wattclarity.com.au/2015/09/yin-and-yang-of-wind-in-the-south-australian-region-of-the-national-electricity-market/

16. Consequences of Disruption – PV
16Source:
Queensland – already showing Duck’s belly in 2014
1800MW ramp up to meet evening peak load

17. Consequences of Disruption
17Source: Energex Distribution Annual Planning Report 2015/16 - 2019/20, Volume 1
Queensland – Energex 2015 – Currimundi

18. Consequences of Disruption
18Source: Energex Distribution Annual Planning Report 2015/16 - 2019/20, Volume 1
Queensland – Energex 2015 and 2025 (forecast)

19. Consequences of Disruption – PV
Ø Higher penetration of renewables in the electrical
network require solutions to minimise variability,
stabilise the grid & price and ensure reliability
across the network (generation to customer’s
end).
Ø Duck Curve (mainly due to PV) tend to cause:
q Overgeneration
q Significant ramp-up need towards evening peak
q Price spikes and volatility – South Australia – especially
as RE ramps down and gas ramps up.
Ø Major changes in the energy markets requires new
business model and solutions
19

20. Flattening the Duck – Long and Short term solutions
Overcoming Duck Curve
Targeted efficiency Manage water pumping
Control electric water
heaters
Ice storage for
Commercial AC
Tariff design
Peak oriented
renewables
Demand response
Inter-regional power exchange
Source: Lazar, J. (2016). Teaching the “Duck” to Fly, Second Edition. Montpelier, VT: The Regulatory Assistance Project;
http://www.raponline.org/document/download/id/7956 20

21. Australia – Interconnectors in NEM (WA & NT excluded)
Overcoming Duck Curve
21
Terranora (Qld-NSW)
107/210 MW
Heywood (SA-Vic) 460 MW
Murraylink (SA-Vic)
200/220 MW
Capacity limitations
Thermal constraints
Expensive upgrades
QNI (Qld-NSW)
600/1078 MW
Vic-NSW
1600/1350 MW
Bass Link
594/478 MW

22. Short Term & Immediate Solutions
Ø Energy Storage
Ø Others:
q Energy efficiency: LED lights to reduce evening peak
q West facing rooftop PV or 1-axis EW tracking
q Peak-hour Water heater management – Heat pumps
q Water and Waste water pumps operation during off
peak or high PV output
q Demand Response Management
22
Overcoming Duck Curve

23. Fixed, West and 1-axis EW tracking Solar PV system
23
UOQ 630 kW
Overcoming Duck Curve
Evening load peak shaving

24. Peak-hour Water heater management – Heat pumps / Ice
Storage – Cost effective solutions cheaper than battery
24
Overcoming Duck Curve

25. Peak-hour Water heater management – Heat pumps / Ice
Storage – Cost effective solutions cheaper than battery
25
Overcoming Duck Curve

26. Rooftop PV + Battery Storage – 2025
26
Overcoming Duck Curve

27. Demand Response Mechanism
27
Overcoming Duck Curve
Source: www.transpower.co.nz/projects/demandresponse

28. The duck is flying – Solar Impulse!
Q/A?
28