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Overcoming	Duck	Curve	&	
Peak	shaving	using	Energy	Storage
All	Energy	2016,	
Melbourne	Convention	&	Exhibition	Centre
Melbourne,	Oct	5,	2016
Dr Ravinder	Soin
Midnight	Energy	Pty	Ltd
1
1. Solar	PV	– Disruptive	Technology
2. Consequences	of	disruption	– Duck	
Curve?
3. Overcoming	Duck	Curve	with	Energy	
Storage	
4. Other	opportunities	for	peak	shaving
5. Q	&	A
2
Outline
Solar	PV	– Disruptive	Technology
FRV	Moore	56MWp Solar	Farm,	NSW,	
Australia
MW	Scale	PV	Projects	– increased	penetration	2003+
3
Q-Cells,	91	MW	Germany Existing:		338MWp
Planned:	20	plants,	740MWp
AGL	102MWp Solar	Farm,	Nyngan,	NSW,	Australia
Distributed	Power	Systems	– Residential	and	Commercial	Roof	Top
Solar	PV	– Disruptive	Technology
4
Source:	GTM	Research
Solar	PV	– Disruptive	Technology
Global	700GW	by	2020
5
Solar	PV	– Disruptive	Technology
Australia	Snapshot	Q3-2016	
Total	installed	5.4	GW
National	Avg 18%	with	PV,	Max	40%
Density: 30%
Capacity: 1586MW
29%
683MW
23%
623MW
Australian	PV	Institute	(APVI)	Solar	Map,	funded	by	the	Australian	Renewable	Energy	Agency,	accessed	
from	pv-map.apvi.org.au	on	26	September	2016.
6
15%
1301MW
Solar	PV	– Disruptive	Technology
Australia	forecast	– AEMO	2016	to	2036
Source:		AEMO	– NATIONAL	ELECTRICITY	FORECASTING	REPORT,	JUNE	2016
7
Source:	http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/wind-and-solar-become-new-base-load-power-for-south-australia-99364	
8
(1)	After	Northern	brown	coal	generator	shutdown;		(2)	PV	substantial	contribution	~680MW		
Australia	– South	Australia	– The	Champion	State	~45%	RE
Solar	PV	– Disruptive	Technology
Consequences	of	disruption	– Duck	Curve
Consequences	of	Disruption	- California
Source:	California	ISO
9
Consequences	of	Disruption	– California	à Camel	to	Duck
Challenge:	Manage	the	Duck	prior	to	2020	Targets
Source:	http://www.vox.com/2016/2/10/10960848/solar-energy-duck-curve
10
Consequences	of	disruption	– Duck	Curve
Source:	https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2016/05/02/the-duck-has-landed/
11
The	Duck	has	landed	in	2016	– 4	years	early
Consequences	of	disruption	– Duck	Curve
Germany	– overgeneration and	maintaining	stability
Consequences	of	Disruption	– High	RE
Load	~	45	GW	daytime	– Wind	>20GW,	Solar	~10GWà Conventional	power	~10GW	
for	15	hours	at	“half	must	run”	level	for	stability
Source:	www.energy-charts.de
12
Consequences	of	Disruption	– PV	
South	Australia	– will	achieve	Duck	Curve	by	2018	(estimate)
13Source:	http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/rooftop-solar-reshapes-energy-market-in-south-australia-18272
305MW
Consequences	of	Disruption	– PV
South	Australia	– Duck	Curve	by	2024-25	– PV		
14Source:	http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/rooftop-solar-to-cut-total-grid-demand-to-zero-in-south-australia-32943
Rooftop	PV	contribution	à AEMO	medium	growth	forecast
overgeneration
Consequences	of	Disruption
South	Australia	– Yin	&	Yang	of	Wind	Power	&	Solar	PV	- Prices
15Source:	http://www.wattclarity.com.au/2015/09/yin-and-yang-of-wind-in-the-south-australian-region-of-the-national-electricity-market/
Consequences	of	Disruption	– PV	
16Source:
Queensland	– already	showing	Duck’s	belly	in	2014
1800MW	ramp	up	to	meet	evening	peak	load
Consequences	of	Disruption
17Source: Energex Distribution	Annual Planning	Report	2015/16	- 2019/20,	Volume	1
Queensland	– Energex	2015	– Currimundi
Consequences	of	Disruption
18Source: Energex Distribution	Annual Planning	Report	2015/16	- 2019/20,	Volume	1
Queensland	– Energex	2015	and	2025	(forecast)
Consequences	of	Disruption	– PV	
Ø Higher	penetration	of	renewables	in	the	electrical	
network	require	solutions	to	minimise	variability,	
stabilise the	grid	&	price	and	ensure	reliability
across	the	network	(generation	to	customer’s	
end).
Ø Duck	Curve	(mainly	due	to	PV)	tend	to	cause:
q Overgeneration
q Significant	ramp-up	need	towards	evening	peak
q Price	spikes	and	volatility	– South	Australia	– especially	
as	RE	ramps	down	and	gas	ramps	up.
Ø Major	changes	in	the	energy	markets	requires	new	
business	model and	solutions
19
Flattening	the	Duck	– Long	and	Short	term	solutions
Overcoming	Duck	Curve
Targeted	efficiency Manage	water	pumping
Control	electric	water	
heaters
Ice	storage	for	
Commercial	AC
Tariff	design
Peak	oriented	
renewables
Demand	response
Inter-regional	power	exchange
Source:	Lazar,	J.	(2016).	Teaching	the	“Duck”	to	Fly,	Second	Edition.	Montpelier,	VT:	The	Regulatory	Assistance	Project;	
http://www.raponline.org/document/download/id/7956 20
Australia	– Interconnectors	in	NEM	(WA	&	NT	excluded)
Overcoming	Duck	Curve
21
Terranora	(Qld-NSW)	
107/210	MW
Heywood	(SA-Vic)	460	MW
Murraylink (SA-Vic)	
200/220	MW
Capacity	limitations
Thermal	constraints
Expensive	upgrades
QNI	(Qld-NSW)	
600/1078	MW
Vic-NSW
1600/1350	MW
Bass	Link
594/478	MW
Short	Term	&	Immediate	Solutions
Ø Energy	Storage
Ø Others:
q Energy	efficiency:	LED	lights	to	reduce	evening	peak
q West	facing	rooftop	PV	or	1-axis	EW	tracking
q Peak-hour	Water	heater	management	– Heat	pumps
q Water	and	Waste	water	pumps	operation	during	off	
peak	or	high	PV	output
q Demand	Response	Management
22
Overcoming	Duck	Curve
Fixed,	West		and	1-axis	EW	tracking	Solar	PV	system
23
UOQ	630	kW
Overcoming	Duck	Curve
Evening	load	peak	shaving
Peak-hour	Water	heater	management	– Heat	pumps	/	Ice	
Storage	– Cost	effective	solutions	cheaper	than	battery
24
Overcoming	Duck	Curve
Peak-hour	Water	heater	management	– Heat	pumps	/	Ice	
Storage	– Cost	effective	solutions	cheaper	than	battery
25
Overcoming	Duck	Curve
Rooftop	PV	+	Battery	Storage	– 2025
26
Overcoming	Duck	Curve
Demand	Response	Mechanism
27
Overcoming	Duck	Curve
Source: www.transpower.co.nz/projects/demandresponse
The	duck	is	flying	– Solar	Impulse!
Q/A?
28

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