Downloaded 20 times
More Related Content
Our uncertain future
- 1. www.advisian.com Jamie Silk |March 2018 Our uncertain energy future How technology is changing the face of downstream
- 2. • A convergenceof technologies • Technologies impacting the real world • Converging technologies: The X-Factor • Delivering value for consumers Overview Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 2
- 3. A convergence oftechnologies
- 4. The fourth industrialage Computers People Automation Physical Automation New Assets Mental Augmentation The Internet of Things (IOT) Distributed LedgerTechnolo gy (DLT)
- 5. = Artificial Intelligence(AI), machine learning, robotic process automation, augmented and virtual reality (AR & VR) Driving: • Automated analysis and execution with codified knowledge and rich data • Simple delivery and use of knowledge with voice AI and AR • Cognitive jobs being redefined Mental Augmentation Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 5
- 6. Dramatic impacts happeningnow 6 $8-10bn Investment in AI (2016, McKinsey) 60% Of artificial intelligence is machine learning, mostly supervised. Before intelligence can exist, learning must take place $60bn Investment in AR by 2020 95% Reduction in new ship inspection times with AR (US Navy) Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian
- 7. = Drones, robotics,autonomous vehicles, energy storage, electric vehicles Driving: • Flexible, autonomous and distributed resources Enabled by: • Dynamic edge processing • Autonomous data collection and execution Physical Automation 7 Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian
- 8. Dramatic impacts happeningnow 8 40% Of all computing could happen at the edge in the next couple of years (IDC) $36 /MWh LCOE PV + storage (Colarado) indicating potential $2.5bn Annual payment by Australian networks to consumers to use DERs in 2050 (ENA/ CSIRO) Autonomous drones and intelligent data processing has taken off. Watch for swarm robots! Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian
- 9. = Low costsensors, connected and dynamically responsive devices; Low power, low cost communications Enabling: • Mental augmentation (data) • Physical automation • Edge processing Internet of things Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian9
- 10. Scaling now 10 35% Of energyand utilities sector using IOT, 20% growth (Vodafone IOT Barometer) 84% Of energy and utilities adopters increased IOT use in 2017 (Vodafone IOT Barometer) 8.4 Billions of connected devices, 30% growth (Gartner) 31 Connected devices in an average Australian home by 2021 Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian
- 11. = aka Blockchain:an immutable, permanent, trusted ledger of “transactions or events”; authorised to be accessible to anyone over time Creates opportunity for: • Massive shift in collaborative working • Eliminating high cost “trust” intermediaries • New services and automation through smart contracts • Value is (currently) in enabling a new business model (as high costs and latency) Distributed Ledger Technology Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 11
- 12. Great focus andpotential but how long to take off? 12 2nd Is blockchain’s ranking as a search on Gartner (Feb 17) 6 Minutes taken for centrality to raise US$80m in its January ICO X Explosion of use cases $3.1trn Business value add from blockchain (Gartner, 2030) Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian
- 13.
- 14. Technology opportunities willchange: • Assets. How they’re owned and managed. • Operations. Networks, distributed resources, how work is executed. • Consumers. What they do, want (services), will pay for?
- 15. • Predictive andcollaborative lifecycle management with rich data shared across asset owners, operators and manufacturers • Flexible, fast to deploy assets • Drives efficient optimised asset service and renewals Asset Management Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 15 Low Cost Sensors Mental Augmentation IIOT/ Big Data Energy Storage AI/ Machine Learning DLT (Blockchain)
- 16. Real-time operating andasset data to test failure hypothesis with a machine learning platform Asset failure analysis Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian16 Algorithm and recommended asset/operational measures to advise control room
- 17. Flexible Resources World’s biggestbattery built in <100 days • 60% bigger than the previous one • 129 MWh of capacity 17
- 18. • Automated, predictivefield interventions facilitated by augmented reality • Dynamic network operations with real time ratings and integrated Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) • Sweeping back office tasks through automation Network Operations Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 18 Low Costs Sensors IIOT/ Edge Processing Physical Automation (i.e. drones) Augmented Reality AI/ Machine Learning Robotic Process Automation
- 19. • Smart meterdata triggering loop automation (FLISR) • Energy storage, industrial/commercial and residential demand response (DERs) reducing network constraints • Connecting FLISR to DERs with localised grid management Automation in action Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 19 Grid edge data processing of 3 billion data points daily
- 20. Drones used for: •Fugitive gas emissions • Pre/post storm AR visualisation Enhancing physical automation Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 20 Drone streams to data centre where AI-enabled algorithm runs 4 million calcs/sec
- 21. AI determines conspiringfactor for acute risk; alerts field supervision Enhancing field safety Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 21
- 22. • Intelligently servecost, comfort and social needs • Engage dynamic customers and their connected assets • Cut cost to serve, whilst delivering new value to consumers For the consumer we can: Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 22 Robotic Process Automation IIOT/ Edge Processing AI/Machine Learning DLT (Blockchain) Energy Storage, PV & EV Physical Automation
- 23. • “Alexa pleasehave the house just cosy, cut some carbon, and grab me some rush hour rewards”. • Peer-to-peer and transactive grid enhancing consumer value and engagement in NZ • EV management and V2G pilots • Energy communities and microgrids Consumer in action Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 23 Solar Buddies™
- 24.
- 25. Multiple technologies =compounding benefits Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 25 Drone inspection Machine Learning - Exceptions AI – Patterns, Defects Auto generate work orders, schedule resource AR enhances field operations Blockchain executes multi-party fulfilment
- 26. Optimising DERS acrossmicrogrids, network and markets Connecting across domains compounds opportunity Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 26 Optimising a single process chain adds immediate value Bringing in external data can enhance your opportunity We can reach out beyond our own resources Optimising DERS across microgrids, network and markets Increasingly that will tap in to other industries Smart cities are a natural extension of this
- 27. Security is thetop consideration when choosing IOT devices Connectivity may bring risks Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian Source: Vodafone IOT Barometer 2017 75% Security/ privacy 74% Network coverage 65% Data throughout 62% Fixed/per connection costs 58% Battery life 57% Transmission delay 56% Prices of devices 27
- 28. Delivering value forconsumers
- 29. • Automating intelligentnetworks • Automating and enhancing field operations • Using big data to optimise assets • Enhancing automated, collaborative working • New services intelligently helping consumers • Cutting cost to serve with automated processing What will drive efficiency and enhance service? Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 29
- 30. Whilst once morereshaping the grid Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian Whilst once more reshaping the grid The Sharing Economy The Internet of Energy Big Data and Analytics Consumer Energy Assets • 1910-55: Engineering and changing consumer needs drove connecting the distributed generation to a national grid • 1990s: Data processing and economic change enabled market reforms • Today: Industry 4.0 and changing consumer needs are driving the Transactive Grid 30
- 32. www.advisian.com DISCLAIMER This presentation hasbeen prepared by a representative of Advisian. The presentation contains the professional and personal opinions of the presenter, which are given in good faith. As such, opinions presented herein may not always necessarily reflect the position of Advisian as a whole, its officers or executive. Any forward-looking statements included in this presentation will involve subjective judgment and analysis and are subject to uncertainties, risks and contingencies—many of which are outside the control of, and may be unknown to, Advisian. Advisian and all associated entities and representatives make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information in this document and do not take responsibility for updating any information or correcting any error or omission that may become apparent after this document has been issued. To the extent permitted by law, Advisian and its officers, employees, related bodies and agents disclaim all liability—direct, indirect or consequential (and whether or not arising out of the negligence, default or lack of care of Advisian and/or any of its agents)—for any loss or damage suffered by a recipient or other persons arising out of, or in connection with, any use or reliance on this presentation or information.
Editor's Notes
- #3 Today’s conference has a packed agenda of real world experience in deploying, piloting and product development utilising these new techs. So we start here with a helicopter overview – experts will follow with deep dives ….
- #20 Mercury 1MW/ 2MWh Tesla Powerpack 2 South Australia 100MW/129MWh
- #22 Data science and machine learning good at identify cluster of causalities'. Cause chain Rarely linear but multivariable and conspiring factors
- #24 TXU Energy: voice AI temperature control AND billing P2s Solar Share 5m cups of tea shared with peer to peer shared solar? Solar City’s IOT enabled app connects through to 50,000 appliances; 10% of consumers taking up ESS option Trustpower – showing big retailers take this seriously A number of EV parties in NZ are looking to deliver new EV charge management options and pilots this year Look to be on the cusp of energy community and microgrid thinking creating real projects – Blueskin Energy Network, Energy Democracy site approval in Carterton and commercial behind the meter ESS with PV (i.e. Dominion Salt)
- #28 Mirel from Honeywell will lead us through these before lunch