Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. May 2021.

LATIN
AMERICA
UPDATE
May 2021
www.nuricumbo.com

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic
2020 Economic Fall -4.0% -4.4% -5.0%
2021 Economic Growth 6.5% 6.0% 5.3%
Total Vaccinations
(Estimated 2021)
5,863 Million 5,330 Million 4,264 Million
% of population vaccinated
(Estimated 2021)
73% 67% 53%
Oil Price (2021) $55 $60 $80
USA - China
Despite the natural conflicts
between an emerging power and
a hegemonic power, cooperation
prevails.
"New Cold War" develops but
with different levels and
nuances.
Conflict leads to important
military clashes in the South
China Sea and fast escalation of
cyberwar.
K-Shaped Recovery
The recovery of the economy
across the world, driven by the
United States, turns out to be
stronger than expected.
K-Shaped recovery continues.
Hard hit sectors suchas tourism,
travel and entertainment
gradually recover.
Recovery is strong but certain
sectors fall behind and new
inequalities are created in the
world economy.
20%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 65%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 15%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic

LATIN AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
2020 Economic Fall -6.5% -7.7% -9.0%
Unemployment 9.5% 10.6% 12.5%
PIB per Capita
(USD per annum)
10,000 9,000 7,000
Inequality
(Gini)
0.45 0.47 0.51
Herd Immunity Mid 2022 Early 2023 Mid 2024
15%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 60%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 25%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic

NORTH AMERICA PERSPECTIVE
2020 Economic Fall
Mexico: -7.5%
USA: -4.0%
Canada: -6.5%
Mexico: -8.5%
USA: -4.3%
Canada: -7.1%
Mexico: -10.0%
USA: -5.0%
Canada: -7.5%
2021 Economic Growth
México: 6.7%
Estados Unidos: 7.0%
Canadá: 6.1%
México: 5.0%
Canadá: 5.0%
México: 3.2%
Canadá: 3.0%
Time to Herd Immunity
México: 300 days
Estados Unidos: 75 days
Canadá: 200 days
México: 375 days
Canadá: 120 days
México: 500 days
Canadá: 150 days
USMCA
Alignment reached in policies,
interests and visions between
the three trading partners.
There are controversies. Some
investments are canceled. Labor
disputes bring noise to the
relationship.
Labor, environmental and
regulatory disputes prove
disruptive for most
investments.
Cooperation
The three governments agree on
a pragmatic agenda that seeks
to create regional prosperity.
Little progress at the regional
level. USA too busy with
domestic priorities.
Elections in Mexico and Canada
produce totally divergent views.
Canada and the USA align and
forget Mexico.
Energy Policy
Mexico’s mid-term elections
produce a more diverse political
balance that stops major policy
changes.
Confidence in the Mexican
economy is badly damaged,
impacting foreign direct
investments.
Mexico’s recent changes in
energy policies results in major
legal disputes under USMCA
rules.
20%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 30%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic

MEXICO PERSPECTIVE
2020 Economic Fall -7.5% -8.5% -11.0%
Interest Rate 3.25% 4.0% 5.0%
Inflation 3.2% 4.5% 4.9%
Exchange Rate
(USD/MXN)
19.0 22.0 25.0
Mid-Term Elections
Peaceful and plural elections.
Diverse Congress. More power
sharing. Institutional order
prevails.
Clean elections. Morena with no
clear majority in congress. Other
political parties win some states.
Controversial elections.
Presidential intervention.
Consolidation of Party of State.
Power concentration produces
a more radical agenda.
Pemex
Pemex without crisis. Sovereign
credit rating remains stable.
Pemex without crisis but
financial bomb keeps ticking.
Sovereign credit rating
deteriorates slightly.
Pemex becomes a major issue
and there is significant impact
on sovereign credit rating.
15%
Estimated
Scenario 1
Optimistic 50%
Estimated
Scenario 2
Neutral 35%
Estimated
Scenario 3
Pesimistic

$5.60 $5.63 $5.44
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
February March April
Brazil
Exchange Rates
$3,620.72 $3,731.91 $3,733.55
$0.00
$1,500.00
$3,000.00
$4,500.00
Colombia
$20.86 $20.44 $20.24
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
Mexico
$3.65 $3.76 $3.79
$0.00
$1.50
$3.00
$4.50
Peru
Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2021.
*USD / PEN
*USD / MXN
*USD / CLP
*USD / BRL
*USD / COP
$723.89 $720.54 $710.67
$0.00
$300.00
$600.00
$900.00
Chile
*USD / CLP
$89.85 $91.98 $93.48
$0.00
$30.00
$60.00
$90.00
$120.00
Argentina
*USD / ARS

Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
38.50% 40.70% 42.60%
0.00%
15.00%
30.00%
45.00%
January February March
Argentina
Inflation Rate
4.56% 5.20%
6.10%
0.00%
2.50%
5.00%
7.50%
December January February
Brazil
2.40% 2.60% 2.38%
0.00%
0.90%
1.80%
2.70%
3.60%
Peru
1.60% 1.56% 1.51%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
Colombia
3.10% 2.80% 2.90%
0.00%
1.50%
3.00%
4.50%
Chile
3.54% 3.76%
4.67%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
Mexico

$39,718 $39,520 $40,360
$0
$15,000
$30,000
$45,000
$60,000
Argentina
International Reserves
$355,620 $355,416 $356,070
$0
$120,000
$240,000
$360,000
$480,000
Brazil
$59,001 $58,975 $58,901
$0
$18,000
$36,000
$54,000
$72,000
Colombia
$39,562 $40,220 $42,282
$0
$13,000
$26,000
$39,000
$52,000
Chile
$195,270 $194,934 $195,268
$0
$60,000
$120,000
$180,000
$240,000
Mexico
$76,029 $80,930 $80,343
$0
$25,000
$50,000
$75,000
$100,000
Peru
*Million U.S. Dollars
Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.

48,432.27 47,982.39 49,056.10
0
16,000
32,000
48,000
64,000
Argentina
Capital Markets
110,035.17 116,633.72 118,893.84
0
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
Brazil
1,359.48 1,316.81 1,250.65
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Colombia
44,592.91 47,246.26 48,009.72
0
12,000
24,000
36,000
48,000
Mexico
4,573.37 4,898.09 4,511.48
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
Chile
*IPSA:IND
*MEXBOL:IND
*SPBLPGPT:IND
*MERVAL:IND
*IBOV:IND
*COLCAP:IND
Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2021.
22,530.22 21,372.03 19,562.77
0
7,000
14,000
21,000
28,000
Peru
*SPBLPGPT:IND

Foreign Direct Investmet
$11,517 $11,873
$6,663.00
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Argentina
$68,885
$78,162
$69,174
$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
2017 2018 2019
Brazil
$13,836
$11,535
$14,314
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
2017 2018 2019
Colombia
$6,128 $7,323
$11,928
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Chile
$33,030 $37,682
$29,354
$0
$12,000
$24,000
$36,000
$48,000
2017 2018 2019
Mexico
$6,860 $6,488
$8,892
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
2017 2018 2019
Peru
Source: The World Bank, 2021. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices

Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC
(March 9, 2021)
Source: Fitch Ratings, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With NEGATIVE Outlook
(November 18, 2020)
Colombia
BBB-
(November 6, 2020)
Chile
A-
With STABLE Outlook
(March 24, 2021)
Mexico
BBB-
With STABLE Outlook
(November 11, 2020)
Peru
BBB+
(December 15, 2020)

Credit Ratings
Argentina
Ca
With STABLE Outlook
(September 28, 2020)
Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2021.
Brazil
Ba2
With STABLE Outlook
(May 15, 2020)
Colombia
Baa2
(December 3, 2020)
Chile
A1
(August 25, 2020)
Mexico
Baa1
(April 29, 2021)
Peru
A3
With STABLE Outlook
(June 25, 2019)

Credit Ratings
Argentina
CCC+
With STABLE Outlook
(September 7, 2020)
Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2021.
Brazil
BB-
With STABLE Outlook
(December 10, 2020)
Colombia
BBB-
(April 22, 2021)
Chile
A
With STABLE Outlook
(March 24, 2021)
Mexico
BBB
(December 3, 2020)
Peru
BBB+
With STABLE Outlook
(November 23, 2020)

Country Presidents
Argentina
President: Alberto Fernandez
Birth: April 2, 1959
In Office Since: December 10, 2019
Political Party: Frente de Todos
Brazil
President: Jair Bolsonaro
Birth: March 21, 1955
In Office Since: January 1, 2019
Political Party: PSL
Colombia
President: Ivan Duque Marquez
Birth: August 1, 1976
In Office Since: August 7, 2018
Political Party: Centro Democratico
Chile
President: Sebastian Piñera E.
Birth: December 1, 1949
In Office Since: March 11, 2018
Political Party: Independent
Mexico
President: Andres Manuel Lopez O.
Birth: November 13, 1953
In Office Since: December 1, 2018
Political Party: Morena
Peru
President: Francisco Sagasti
Birth: October 10, 1944
In Office Since: November 17, 2020
Political Party: Partido Morado

Mid-term elections in Mexico will be a referendum
on the Lopez Obrador administration

Political impact of Mexico City subway accident
still difficult to predict

Democracy is under pressure
across the region

An effort to push tax reforms created
violent clashes in Colombia

Except for Argentina and Venezuela, inflation is
mostly under control in Latam

The region continues to face high
COVID-19 mortality rates

Emerging markets will continue to benefit from
demographic advantages

COMPANY
PROFIT
Our Firm at a glance
Key Facts Industries
• 50+ CONSULTANTS
• MULTIDISCIPLINARY
• BIG 4 BACKGROUND
• INTERNATIONAL
EXPOSURE
• ACTIVE ACROSS MEXICO
• ABLE TO TRAVEL
• FLEXIBILITY
• BILINGUAL / BICULTURAL
Professional
Organizations
Our Service
Portfolio
• MANUFACTURING
• FINANCIAL SERVICES
• PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
• TRADING
• RETAIL
• ADVERTISING
• EDUCATION
• PRIVATE EQUITY
• FAMILY BUSINESS
• MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF
PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS
• MEXICO CITY ACCOUNTANCY
BOARD
• MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF
FINANCIAL EXECUTIVES
• ILLINOIS ACCOUNTANCY
BOARD
• AMERICAN CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE
• EXTERNAL AUDIT
• INTERNAL AUDIT
• PART TIME CFO’S
• INTERIM
MANAGEMENT
• FORENSIC
• TAX
• TRANSFORMATIONS
• ADVISORY BOARD
For more information: www.nuricumbo.com
BANAMEX FONATUR Y&R ZIMAT NOKIA CIT PFIZER METLIFE
LESAFFRE
PWC DELOITTE IPG BOMBARDIER BANORTE +GF+ MERLIN
KANDEO SGS
1985 1990 2000 2003 2010 2013 2014 2017 2020
Professional Careers
History
Experience as Independent Consultant Experience as Consulting Group

WE SUPPORT SENIOR MANAGEMENT IN THE
RESOLUTION OF SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL
PROJECTS.
 Ideal to tackle those projects that are crucial
but sometimes difficult to deliver internally.
 Teams of highly experienced consultants.
 Our consultants have on average 20/25
years of professional experience.
 Reduced learning curve / More productivity.
 High degree of flexibility.
 Solid specialization in Finance, Audit, Tax and
Accounting.
 Big Four / Big Consulting background.
Who are we?

 Internal and External Audit.
 Special reviews (financial, process,
operational, compliance, forensic, etc.)
 Financial Due Diligence for M&A.
 Tax Compliance.
 Comisarios. Board Members. Advisory Board.
 Interim C-Level Executives (CEOs, CFOs, etc.)
 Interim Project Teams.
 Specialized Training Programs.
 Debt/Equity Solutions.
 Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos).
How do we help some of our clients?

CONSULTANT PROFILE
JOSE
TREVIÑO

José Treviño
Academic Background
• El Colegio de México. International Relations. 1975.
• IPADE. Business Management. 1989.
Work History
 Nuricumbo + Partners. Consultant. 2016 – Present.
 AmeriCompass, S.C. Managing Partner. 2001 – Present.
 Investment Board. Managing Director. Vice President. 1999 – 2001
 NAFTA Office, DC. Economic Counselor Mexico. 1991 - 1999.
Summary
José has wide public and private sector professional experience. He has advised
the Mexican Government and U.S. and Canadian investors –particularly mining
companies- to achieve their trade and investment goals in the NAFTA region.
Calling upon a wealth of public and private sector contacts, José specializes in
advising foreign investors to establish or expand their presence in Mexico and in
acting as interim or permanent Country Manager.
He is currently President of the Mexico-Canada Business Committee at the
Mexican Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (COMCE), a
Mexican private sector organization dedicated to promoting Mexican exports
and attracting foreign direct investment to Mexico. COMCE interacts with
leading business associations across the globe. José has also had important
leadership roles in public and private projects in sectors such as brokerage,
mining, transportation, and nuclear energy.
Languages
Spanish - Native
English – Fluent
French – Fluent
Systems Experience
Microsoft Office
Industry Experience
Government
International Organizations
Investments
Trade
Functional Experience
Consultant
Director
Vice President

WHAT WE THINK
Biden Administration and Mexico
The Strategy in Times of Covid
What to Expect from 2021
Winning an election does not resolve our problems
The reinvention of big global cities
North America: From shared prosperity to failed state
Who will win the U.S. elections?
Will we avoid another lost decade?
Inequality is not a good business
The Lebanese mirror
Wirecard, external audit and the public interest
OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL
Book Review: Why Nations Fail
Book Review: The Value of Everything
To be a leader, but for the right reasons
Vestiga Consultores: Información y pandemia
Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic
Willingness to Pay & Value Stick
James Francum – Perspective from Germany
Toshiyuki Yasui: Chief Happiness Officer
Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19
OTHER
Riesgo Global: Relación Estados Unidos - China
Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017
¿Por qué medir la confianza económica?
Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media

Land Area
Source: The World Bank, 2018.
2,736,690
8,358,140
1,109,500
743,532
1,943,950
1,280,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru
Note: Kilometers

Ease of Doing Business Index
126 124
67
59 60
76
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations

Population Growth
1.0%
0.8%
1.4%
1.2%
1.1%
1.6%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
Note: Annual Percentage

Total Population
44,938.7
211,049.5
50,339.4
18,952.0
127,575.5
32,510.5
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants

Urban Population
92%
87%
81%
88%
80% 78%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Note: Percentage of Total Population

Poverty Headcount Ratio
1.5%
4.6%
4.9%
0.3%
1.7%
2.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019.
Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population

Exports of Goods and Services
17.4%
14.3%
15.8%
28.2%
38.8%
24.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Note: Percentage of GDP

Gross Domestic Product
$445,445.2
$1,839,758.0
$323,615.9 $282,318.2
$1,268,870.5
$226,848.1
$0
$300,000
$600,000
$900,000
$1,200,000
$1,500,000
$1,800,000
$2,100,000
$2,400,000
Note: Millions, Current US$

GDP Per Capita
$23,040.3
$15,300.0 $16,012.4
$27,002.3
$20,994.0
$13,416.4
$0.0
$5,000.0
$10,000.0
$15,000.0
$20,000.0
$25,000.0
$30,000.0
Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $

GDP Growth
-2.1%
1.1%
3.3%
1.1%
-0.1%
2.2%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Note: Annual Percentage

Gross Savings
15.8%
12.2%
15.7%
18.9%
23.7%
19.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%

Personal Remittances
$0.0
$10,000.0
$20,000.0
$30,000.0
$40,000.0
$528.3 $3,213.6
$6,761.9
$70.0
$39,021.8
$3,326.0
Note: (i) Received; (ii) Millions, Current US$

Total Reserves
$44,880.6
$356,886.4
$52,652.7
$40,655.5
$183,056.1
$67,711.5
$0.0
$50,000.0
$100,000.0
$150,000.0
$200,000.0
$250,000.0
$300,000.0
$350,000.0
$400,000.0
Note: (i) Includes Gold; (ii) Millions, Current US$

Revenue
18.8%
29.7%
24.2%
21.4%
18.6%
19.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP

Government Expenditure on Education
5.5%
6.3%
4.5%
5.4%
4.5%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%

Labor Force
19,180.3
99,843.0
24,802.3
8,859.8
53,978.6
16,182.3
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Note: Thousands

Labor Force (Female)
43.3% 43.9% 42.7% 42.4%
38.5%
45.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force

Unemployment
11.7%
13.7%
15.4%
11.5%
4.7%
6.2%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate

Energy Use
2,030
1,496
724
2,006
1,537
790
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita

Renewable Electricity Output
28.1%
74.0%
68.2%
43.6%
15.4%
52.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output

Population Living in Slums
14.7%
16.3%
27.8%
8.8%
16.0%
33.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Note: Percentage of Urban Population

External Debt Stocks
65.3%
31.8%
44.2%
38.1%
29.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Note: Percentage of GNI

Bank Capital to Assets Ratio
13.5%
10.2%
17.0%
7.5%
11.0%
12.9%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Note: Percentage

Bank Nonperforming Loans
to Total Gross Loans
5.7%
3.1%
4.2%
2.1% 2.1%
3.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Note: Percentage

Deposit Interest Rate
47.3%
5.4% 4.5%
2.5% 3.5% 3.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Note: Percentage

Lending Interest Rate
67.3%
37.5%
11.8%
4.2%
8.4%
14.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Note: Percentage

Listed Domestic Companies
91
324
66
203
139
196
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Note: Total

Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic
Companies
$39,393.54
$1,187,361.69
$132,040.28
$203,791.65
$413,618.82
$98,964.96
$0.0
$200,000.0
$400,000.0
$600,000.0
$800,000.0
$1,000,000.0
$1,200,000.0
Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$

Strength of Legal Rights Index
2 2
11
4
10
7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong

Military Expenditure
1.9%
3.9%
11.0%
7.2%
2.0%
5.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure

We care about your business priorities.
Let’s talk!
E-mail: contacto@nuricumbo.com
Mobile/Whatsapp: + 52 (155) 5453 6309
Skype: nuricua
Twitter: @a_nuricumbo
Office: Montes Urales 424
Lomas de Chapultepec, CDMX
Please visit our website

Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. May 2021.

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