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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. April 2021.

Nuricumbo + Partners is specialized on subjects such as financial due diligence for M&A, special audits, independent process assessments, debt/equity solutions, on-demand financial talent, anti-corruption initiatives, enterprise risk management, and corporate governance. We have become trusted business advisors for companies of all sizes, providing direct support to CEOs and CFOs in special or confidential projects.

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Our Newsletter. Mexico & Latin America. April 2021.

  1. 1. LATIN AMERICA UPDATE April 2021 www.nuricumbo.com
  2. 2. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall -4.0% -4.4% -5.0% 2021 Economic Growth 6.0% 5.6% 4.7% Total Vaccinations (Estimated 2021) 3,400 Million 2,800 Million 2,200 Million % of population vaccinated (Estimated 2021) 44% 36% 30% Reinfections New COVID variants do not generate massive reinfections. There are some reinfections with new variants but they are not massive. New COVID variants prove to be highly infectious. Available vaccines are not effective. Oil Price (2021) $50 $60 $80 USA - China Despite the natural conflicts between an emerging power and a hegemonic power, cooperation prevails. "New Cold War" develops but with different levels and nuances. Conflict leads to important military clashes in the South China Sea and fast escalation of cyberwar. 20% Estimated Scenario 1 Optimistic 65% Estimated Scenario 2 Neutral 15% Estimated Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  3. 3. LATIN AMERICA PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall -6.5% -7.7% -9.0% 2021 Economic Growth 5.2% 4.9% 3.0% Unemployment 9.5% 10.6% 12.5% PIB per Capita (USD per annum) 10,000 9,000 7,000 Inequality (Gini) 0.45 0.47 0.51 Herd Immunity Late 2022 Mid 2023 Late 2024 15% Estimated Scenario 1 Optimistic 60% Estimated Scenario 2 Neutral 25% Estimated Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  4. 4. NORTH AMERICA PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall Mexico: -7.5% USA: -4.0% Canada: -6.5% Mexico: -8.5% USA: -4.3% Canada: -7.1% Mexico: -10.0% USA: -5.0% Canada: -7.5% 2021 Economic Growth México: 6.7% Estados Unidos: 6.5% Canadá: 6.4% México: 5.0% Estados Unidos: 5.5% Canadá: 6.0% México: 3.0% Estados Unidos: 3.5% Canadá: 3.1% Time to Herd Immunity México: 400 days Estados Unidos: 80 days Canadá: 200 days México: 520 days Estados Unidos: 100 days Canadá: 250 days México: 700 days Estados Unidos: 120 days Canadá: 350 days USMCA Alignment reached in policies, interests and visions between the three trading partners. There are controversies. Some investments are canceled but many others go ahead. Labor, environmental and regulatory disputes prove disruptive for most investments. Cooperation The three governments agree on a pragmatic agenda that seeks to create regional prosperity. Little progress at the regional level. USA too busy with domestic priorities. Elections in Mexico and Canada produce totally divergent views. Canada and the USA align and forget Mexico. Energy Policy Mexico’s mid-term elections produce a more diverse political balance that stops major policy changes. Mexico rectifies some of the recent policy changes and prevents major disputes, although confidence is badly damaged. Mexico’s recent changes in energy policies results in major legal disputes under USMCA rules. 20% Estimated Scenario 1 Optimistic 50% Estimated Scenario 2 Neutral 30% Estimated Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  5. 5. MEXICO PERSPECTIVE Issues Optimistic Neutral Pesimistic 2020 Economic Fall -7.5% -8.5% -11.0% 2021 Economic Growth 6.7% 5.0% 3.0% Interest Rate 3.25% 4.0% 5.0% Inflation 2.8% 3.8% 4.2% Exchange Rate (USD/MXN) 19.0 22.0 25.0 Mid-Term Elections Peaceful and plural elections. Diverse Congress. More power sharing. Institutional order prevails. Clean elections. Morena with no clear majority in congress. Other political parties win some states. Controversial elections. Presidential intervention. Consolidation of Party of State. Power concentration produces a more radical agenda. Pemex Pemex without crisis. Sovereign credit rating remains stable. Pemex without crisis but financial bomb keeps ticking. Sovereign credit rating deteriorates slightly. Pemex becomes a major issue and there is significant impact on sovereign credit rating. 15% Estimated Scenario 1 Optimistic 50% Estimated Scenario 2 Neutral 35% Estimated Scenario 3 Pesimistic
  6. 6. $5.46 $5.60 $5.63 $0.00 $2.50 $5.00 $7.50 January February March Brazil Exchange Rates $3,569.07 $3,620.72 $3,731.91 $0.00 $1,500.00 $3,000.00 $4,500.00 January February March Colombia $20.58 $20.86 $20.44 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 January February March Mexico $3.63 $3.65 $3.76 $0.00 $1.50 $3.00 $4.50 January February March Peru Source: Exchange Rates UK, 2021. *USD / PEN *USD / MXN *USD / CLP *USD / BRL *USD / COP $734.81 $723.89 $720.54 $0.00 $300.00 $600.00 $900.00 January February March Chile *USD / CLP $87.30 $89.85 $91.98 $0.00 $30.00 $60.00 $90.00 $120.00 January February March Argentina *USD / ARS
  7. 7. Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021. 36.10% 38.50% 40.70% 0.00% 15.00% 30.00% 45.00% December January February Argentina Inflation Rate 4.52% 4.56% 5.20% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% 6.00% November December January Brazil 2.68% 2.40% 2.60% 0.00% 0.90% 1.80% 2.70% 3.60% January February March Peru 1.61% 1.60% 1.56% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% December January February Colombia 3.00% 3.10% 2.80% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% December January February Chile 3.15% 3.54% 3.76% 0.00% 1.50% 3.00% 4.50% December January February Mexico
  8. 8. $39,473 $39,718 $39,520 $0 $15,000 $30,000 $45,000 $60,000 January February March Argentina International Reserves $356,004 $355,620 $355,416 $0 $120,000 $240,000 $360,000 $480,000 December January February Brazil $59,031 $59,001 $58,975 $0 $18,000 $36,000 $54,000 $72,000 December January February Colombia $38,999 $39,562 $40,723 $0 $13,000 $26,000 $39,000 $52,000 January February March Chile $195,946 $195,270 $194,934 $0 $60,000 $120,000 $180,000 $240,000 January February March Mexico $76,474 $76,029 $80,930 $0 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 January February March Peru *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars *Million U.S. Dollars Source: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru Central Banks, 2021.
  9. 9. 48,257.14 48,432.27 47,982.39 0 16,000 32,000 48,000 64,000 January February March Argentina Capital Markets 115,067.54 110,035.17 116,633.72 0 35,000 70,000 105,000 140,000 January February March Brazil 1,348.12 1,359.48 1,316.81 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 January February March Colombia 42,985.73 44,592.91 47,246.26 0 12,000 24,000 36,000 48,000 January February March Mexico 4,288.65 4,573.37 4,898.09 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 January February March Chile *IPSA:IND *MEXBOL:IND *SPBLPGPT:IND *MERVAL:IND *IBOV:IND *COLCAP:IND Source: Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, 2021. 21,110.22 22,530.22 21,372.03 0 7,000 14,000 21,000 28,000 January February March Peru *SPBLPGPT:IND
  10. 10. Foreign Direct Investmet $11,517 $11,873 $6,663.00 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Argentina $68,885 $78,162 $69,174 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 2017 2018 2019 Brazil $13,836 $11,535 $14,314 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 2017 2018 2019 Colombia $6,128 $7,323 $11,928 $0 $4,000 $8,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Chile $33,030 $37,682 $29,354 $0 $12,000 $24,000 $36,000 $48,000 2017 2018 2019 Mexico $6,860 $6,488 $8,892 $0 $3,000 $6,000 $9,000 $12,000 2017 2018 2019 Peru Source: The World Bank, 2021. *BoP, Million U.S. Dollars at Current Prices
  11. 11. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC (March 9, 2021) Source: Fitch Ratings, 2021. Brazil BB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (November 18, 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (November 6, 2020) Chile A- With STABLE Outlook (March 24, 2021) Mexico BBB- With STABLE Outlook (November 11, 2020) Peru BBB+ With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 15, 2020)
  12. 12. Credit Ratings Argentina Ca With STABLE Outlook (September 28, 2020) Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2021. Brazil Ba2 With STABLE Outlook (May 15, 2020) Colombia Baa2 With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 3, 2020) Chile A1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (August 25, 2020) Mexico Baa1 With NEGATIVE Outlook (April 17, 2020) Peru A3 With STABLE Outlook (June 25, 2019)
  13. 13. Credit Ratings Argentina CCC+ With STABLE Outlook (September 7, 2020) Source: Standard & Poor’s, 2021. Brazil BB- With STABLE Outlook (December 10, 2020) Colombia BBB- With NEGATIVE Outlook (October 28, 2020) Chile A With STABLE Outlook (March 24, 2021) Mexico BBB With NEGATIVE Outlook (December 3, 2020) Peru BBB+ With STABLE Outlook (November 23, 2020)
  14. 14. Country Presidents Argentina President: Alberto Fernandez Birth: April 2, 1959 In Office Since: December 10, 2019 Political Party: Frente de Todos Brazil President: Jair Bolsonaro Birth: March 21, 1955 In Office Since: January 1, 2019 Political Party: PSL Colombia President: Ivan Duque Marquez Birth: August 1, 1976 In Office Since: August 7, 2018 Political Party: Centro Democratico Chile President: Sebastian Piñera E. Birth: December 1, 1949 In Office Since: March 11, 2018 Political Party: Independent Mexico President: Andres Manuel Lopez O. Birth: November 13, 1953 In Office Since: December 1, 2018 Political Party: Morena Peru President: Francisco Sagasti Birth: October 10, 1944 In Office Since: November 17, 2020 Political Party: Partido Morado
  15. 15. Chile will delay midterm elections due to new spike of Coronavirus cases
  16. 16. Mexico June midterm elections will be a referendum on President Lopez Obrador
  17. 17. Countries have taken different views in terms of school re-openings
  18. 18. Colombia has issued rules to allow private sector participation in the national vaccination program
  19. 19. Uruguay is suffering the worst Covid outbreak since the start of the lockdown
  20. 20. Peru will elect a new president this month
  21. 21. El Salvador’s populist President Nayib Bukele will have control of Congress as of May
  22. 22. 57 Brazilians and 13 Mexicans made it to the Forbes wealthiest list
  23. 23. WE ARE NURICUMBO + PARTNERS
  24. 24. COMPANY PROFIT Our Firm at a glance Key Facts Industries • 50+ CONSULTANTS • MULTIDISCIPLINARY • BIG 4 BACKGROUND • INTERNATIONAL EXPOSURE • ACTIVE ACROSS MEXICO • ABLE TO TRAVEL • FLEXIBILITY • BILINGUAL / BICULTURAL Professional Organizations Our Service Portfolio • MANUFACTURING • FINANCIAL SERVICES • PROFESSIONAL SERVICES • TRADING • RETAIL • ADVERTISING • EDUCATION • PRIVATE EQUITY • FAMILY BUSINESS • MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS • MEXICO CITY ACCOUNTANCY BOARD • MEXICAN INSTITUTE OF FINANCIAL EXECUTIVES • ILLINOIS ACCOUNTANCY BOARD • AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE • EXTERNAL AUDIT • INTERNAL AUDIT • PART TIME CFO’S • INTERIM MANAGEMENT • FORENSIC • TAX • TRANSFORMATIONS • ADVISORY BOARD For more information: www.nuricumbo.com BANAMEX FONATUR Y&R ZIMAT NOKIA CIT PFIZER METLIFE LESAFFRE PWC DELOITTE IPG BOMBARDIER BANORTE +GF+ MERLIN KANDEO SGS 1985 1990 2000 2003 2010 2013 2014 2017 2020 Professional Careers History Experience as Independent Consultant Experience as Consulting Group
  25. 25. WE SUPPORT SENIOR MANAGEMENT IN THE RESOLUTION OF SPECIAL OR CONFIDENTIAL PROJECTS.  Ideal to tackle those projects that are crucial but sometimes difficult to deliver internally.  Teams of highly experienced consultants.  Our consultants have on average 20/25 years of professional experience.  Reduced learning curve / More productivity.  High degree of flexibility.  Solid specialization in Finance, Audit, Tax and Accounting.  Big Four / Big Consulting background. Who are we?
  26. 26.  Internal and External Audit.  Special reviews (financial, process, operational, compliance, forensic, etc.)  Financial Due Diligence for M&A.  Tax Compliance.  Comisarios. Board Members. Advisory Board.  Interim C-Level Executives (CEOs, CFOs, etc.)  Interim Project Teams.  Specialized Training Programs.  Debt/Equity Solutions.  Fintech Trusts (Fideicomisos). How do we help some of our clients?
  27. 27. WHAT WE THINK Book Review: Freakonomics The Biden Adminstration and Mexico Trade The Strategy in Times of Covid 2021: Year of Healing and Recovery Winning an election does not resolve our problems The reinvention of big global cities Will we avoid another lost decade? Wirecard, external audit and the public interest OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL Book Review: Why Nations Fail ¿Cómo regular el outsourcing? How to choose the right partner? La Voz del CFO: Importancia de la tecnología La Voz del CFO: Rompiendo paradigmas Oportunidades Financieras para Exportadores Vestiga Consultores: Información y pandemia Historic Lessons of the 1918 Pandemic Oscar Becerril: Cómo superar COVID-19 OTHER Riesgo Global: Relación Estados Unidos - China Ranking Empresas Zombies Mexico: Q2 2020 Mexico’s Top 25 CFO’s of 2017 ¿Por qué medir la confianza económica? Nuricumbo + Partners in the Media
  28. 28. LATIN AMERICA OVERVIEW
  29. 29. Land Area Source: The World Bank, 2018. 2,736,690 8,358,140 1,109,500 743,532 1,943,950 1,280,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kilometers
  30. 30. Ease of Doing Business Index 126 124 67 59 60 76 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: 1 = Most Business-friendly Regulations
  31. 31. Population Growth 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  32. 32. Total Population 44,938.7 211,049.5 50,339.4 18,952.0 127,575.5 32,510.5 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Thousands; (ii) Total Inhabitants
  33. 33. Urban Population 92% 87% 81% 88% 80% 78% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Population
  34. 34. Poverty Headcount Ratio 1.5% 4.6% 4.9% 0.3% 1.7% 2.2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: (i) At US$1.90 / Day; (ii) Percentage of Population
  35. 35. Exports of Goods and Services 17.4% 14.3% 15.8% 28.2% 38.8% 24.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  36. 36. Foreign Direct Investment - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 6,663 69,174 14,313 11,928 29,353 8,891 Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Net Inflows; (ii) BoP, Current Million US$
  37. 37. Gross Domestic Product $445,445.2 $1,839,758.0 $323,615.9 $282,318.2 $1,268,870.5 $226,848.1 $0 $300,000 $600,000 $900,000 $1,200,000 $1,500,000 $1,800,000 $2,100,000 $2,400,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Millions, Current US$
  38. 38. GDP Per Capita $23,040.3 $15,300.0 $16,012.4 $27,002.3 $20,994.0 $13,416.4 $0.0 $5,000.0 $10,000.0 $15,000.0 $20,000.0 $25,000.0 $30,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) PPP; (ii) Current International $
  39. 39. GDP Growth -2.1% 1.1% 3.3% 1.1% -0.1% 2.2% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Annual Percentage
  40. 40. Gross Savings 15.8% 12.2% 15.7% 18.9% 23.7% 19.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  41. 41. Personal Remittances $0.0 $10,000.0 $20,000.0 $30,000.0 $40,000.0 $528.3 $3,213.6 $6,761.9 $70.0 $39,021.8 $3,326.0 Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Received; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  42. 42. Total Reserves $44,880.6 $356,886.4 $52,652.7 $40,655.5 $183,056.1 $67,711.5 $0.0 $50,000.0 $100,000.0 $150,000.0 $200,000.0 $250,000.0 $300,000.0 $350,000.0 $400,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Includes Gold; (ii) Millions, Current US$
  43. 43. Revenue 18.8% 29.7% 24.2% 21.4% 18.6% 19.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Excluding Grants; (ii) Percentage of GDP
  44. 44. Government Expenditure on Education 5.5% 6.3% 4.5% 5.4% 4.5% 3.8% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2017 - 2019. Note: Percentage of GDP
  45. 45. Labor Force Source: The World Bank, 2020. 19,180.3 99,843.0 24,802.3 8,859.8 53,978.6 16,182.3 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Thousands
  46. 46. Labor Force (Female) 43.3% 43.9% 42.7% 42.4% 38.5% 45.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of Total Labor Force
  47. 47. Unemployment 11.7% 13.7% 15.4% 11.5% 4.7% 6.2% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2020. Note: (i) Percentage of Total Labor Force; (ii) Modeled ILO Estimate
  48. 48. Energy Use Source: The World Bank, 2014 - 2015. 2,030 1,496 724 2,006 1,537 790 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Kg of Oil Equivalent per Capita
  49. 49. Renewable Electricity Output 28.1% 74.0% 68.2% 43.6% 15.4% 52.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2015. Note: Percentage of Total Electricity Output
  50. 50. Population Living in Slums 14.7% 16.3% 27.8% 8.8% 16.0% 33.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018. Note: Percentage of Urban Population
  51. 51. External Debt Stocks 65.3% 31.8% 44.2% 38.1% 29.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of GNI
  52. 52. Bank Capital to Assets Ratio 13.5% 10.2% 17.0% 7.5% 11.0% 12.9% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  53. 53. Bank Nonperforming Loans to Total Gross Loans 5.7% 3.1% 4.2% 2.1% 2.1% 3.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  54. 54. Deposit Interest Rate 47.3% 5.4% 4.5% 2.5% 3.5% 3.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage
  55. 55. Lending Interest Rate 67.3% 37.5% 11.8% 4.2% 8.4% 14.4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2018 - 2019. Note: Percentage
  56. 56. Listed Domestic Companies Source: The World Bank, 2019. 91 324 66 203 139 196 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: Total
  57. 57. Market Capitalization of Listed Domestic Companies $39,393.54 $1,187,361.69 $132,040.28 $203,791.65 $413,618.82 $98,964.96 $0.0 $200,000.0 $400,000.0 $600,000.0 $800,000.0 $1,000,000.0 $1,200,000.0 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: (i) Millions; (ii) Current US$
  58. 58. Strength of Legal Rights Index Source: The World Bank, 2019. 2 2 11 4 10 7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Note: 0 = Weak to 12 = Strong
  59. 59. Military Expenditure 1.9% 3.9% 11.0% 7.2% 2.0% 5.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Argentina Brazil Colombia Chile Mexico Peru Source: The World Bank, 2019. Note: Percentage of General Government Expenditure
  60. 60. We care about your business priorities. Let’s talk! E-mail: contacto@nuricumbo.com Mobile/Whatsapp: + 52 (155) 5453 6309 Skype: nuricua Twitter: @a_nuricumbo Office: Montes Urales 424 Lomas de Chapultepec, CDMX Please visit our website

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