Optionality: Synthesizing and exercising attractive options during your next project
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This presentation examines insights on winning from John Boyd and insights on optionality from Nicholas Taleb to synthesize an optionality approach to development. Boyd had a lot to say about winning. His final brief was titled “The Essence of Winning and Losing.” Much of Nicholas Taleb’s career was spent as an options trader on Wall Street. His first best selling book was “The Black Swan.” Black Swan theory refers to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence. Typically, black swan events are unpredicted. They are rationalized in hindsight. Another best seller was “Antifragility.” This presentation summarizes a few highlights from that book. This presentation expands several concepts from Taleb and combines those with insights from Boyd. The capability to synthesize many options and exercise attractive development options rapidly throughout a project enables a properly prepared network of individual contributors to realize non-linear gains that are not possible by alternate development approaches such as ones that focus on managing mandates. Some of the insights to facilitate wins: - The synthesis of many options is facilitated by mobilizing a network with a diversity of specialties (requisite variety) and practicing pair development. - Rapidity is facilitated by designing for disintermediation and enhancing the capability of the network to detect mismatches. - The determination of attractiveness can be improved by designing for recursive approaches.
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Optionality: Synthesizing and exercising attractive options during your next project
- 1. Optionality: Synthesizing and Exercising Attractive Options for Non-linear Gains during your Next Project Mark A Hart #BoydAndBeyond 4 October 2014 1
- 2. Objective Analyze insights on winning from John Boyd and insights on optionality from Nicholas Taleb to synthesize an optionality approach to development 2 John Boyd Nicholas Taleb
- 3. Outline • Common approaches to development projects • Optionality • Antifragility • Using the OODA Loop sketch to represent situations • Analyses, synthesis, and winning • Synthesizing and exercising options • How to improve development experience during your current project and ensure that you win at the end of your next project 3
- 4. The Gnomes of Product Development 4 Section 1
- 5. Development Experience • Autonomy • Mastery • Purpose 5
- 6. Section 2 Optionality: A quality of state where choice or discretion is allowed. * * generic 6
- 7. Financial Options • Provide the buyer the potential to take action • No obligation to buy or sell 7
- 8. Preferred Payoff Function • Asymmetric • Convexity Based on Taleb, Understanding is a Poor Substitute for Convexity, 2014 8
- 9. An option is a substitute for knowledge 9
- 10. Options Example 10 It is advantageous to possess a variety of responses that can be applied rapidly to gain sustenance, avoid danger, and diminish adversary’s capacity for independent action (Boyd, Patterns of Conflict, #12)
- 11. Antifragile •An adjective created by Taleb •The exact opposite of fragile •Beyond resilience or robustness 11 Section 3
- 12. Characterizations of development environments • Fragile • Robust • Resilient • Antifragile 12
- 13. From project-to-project • Robust development environments tend to survive unchanged • Resilient development environments survive changes from external factors 13
- 14. Antifragile Systems An antifragile system thrives and grows when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and it welcomes adventure, risk, and uncertainty 14
- 15. The option is an agent of antifragility 15
- 16. Antifragile Example 1 16 Netflix strives to be antifragile. They attack their solutions to make themselves a stronger company and improve their development environment. They stress their system to build up their ability to withstand attacks. “Chaos Monkey is a service which identifies groups of systems and randomly terminates one of the systems in a group.” https://github.com/Netflix/SimianArmy/wiki/Chaos-Monkey
- 17. Antifragile Example 2 17 In the late 1950s and the first half of 1960, Boyd and his students at Nellis Air Force Base incorporated activities to improve their antifragility. In the time between the classroom and the debrief: “They played grabass. They went rat-racing. They got into furballs. Boyd gave them their chance and one by one he hosed them, and then he nursed them along, teaching, demonstrating how to control the Hun” Ronald E. Catton at Nellis Air Force Base (Coram #96-97) Image from http://www.nellis.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123310303
- 18. Section 4 OODA Loop sketch Based on the OODA Loop sketch from “The Essence of Winning and Losing” by John Boyd 1995 18
- 19. Representing loops of various durations 19
- 20. Representing a series of maneuvers of various durations 20
- 21. Detecting the duration of a loop 21
- 22. Representing a series of maneuvers 22
- 23. Representing operating inside an adversary’s OODA loops 23
- 24. Representing a competitive encounter 24
- 25. Representation of the impact on OODA Loop duration when there is a dependency 25
- 26. Representation of a single effort that is transformed to parallel efforts 26
- 27. Representing harmonious efforts 27 Boyd’s definition of harmony was the “Interaction of apparently disconnected events or entities in a connected way” (Boyd, 1986. Patterns # 125).
- 28. Items not included explicitly in Boyd’s OODA Loop Sketch 28 • Faster tempo or rhythm • Agility • Fast transients • Negative factors and noble counterweights Fear : Courage Anxiety : Confidence Alienation : Esprit Mistrust : Harmony Uncertainty : Adaptability Menace : Initiative
- 29. Stacked Representation of an OODA Loop Sketch 29
- 30. How will you recognize a win? • Experience • Problem to be solved • Job to be done 30 Section 5 http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Snowmobile_race.jpg. Trevor MacInnis.
- 31. Preparation to recognize a win In freshly fallen snow, my friends and I want to experience the exhilaration associated with being a fighter pilot 31
- 32. Analyses and Synthesis 32 Boyd’s thought experiment Boyd, The Strategic Game, 1987
- 33. Preparing for an informed analyses https://www.flickr.com/photos/hutchike/4549229178/ People engaged in activities that are enabled by technologies 33 https://www.flickr.com/photos/mt_hood_territory/8407904161/. https://www.flickr.com/photos/91591049@N00/14714584344/
- 34. Analyses Skis Handlebars Treads Motor Select one potentially valuable item from each activity then discard and forget the rest of each image 34
- 35. Synthesis Transformation and combination 35
- 36. In most cases, one analyses and synthesis effort is not enough for a win. In most cases, one OODA cycle is not enough for a win. 36
- 37. A synthesis approach enables one to imagine how several capabilities may work together to produce the desired result 37
- 38. “A loser is someone — individual or group — who cannot build snowmobiles when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change; Whereas, A winner is someone — individual or group — who can build snowmobiles, and employ them in an appropriate fashion, when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change.” 38 Boyd, Revelation, 1987
- 39. 39 To win, the emphasis is on the capability to build and employ products in an appropriate fashion when there are unknowns
- 40. A winner is not required to be the inventor of a product or the first to market it 40 In 1917, Virgil D. White received a patent for "an attachment designed to convert a Model T into a 'Snowmobile,' a name coined and copyrighted by White" in 1913. Snowmobile on display at the National Postal Museum. Images from http://www.postalmuseum.si.edu/museum/1d_Snowbird.html
- 41. Validation In freshly fallen snow, my friends and I want to experience the exhilaration associated with being a fighter pilot 41
- 42. Preparing for more analyses People engaged in activities that are enabled by technologies and enhanced through play 42 https://www.flickr.com/photos/mustafakhayat/10213753235/
- 43. More analyses Select one potentially valuable item from each activity then discard and forget the rest of each image 43
- 44. Synthesis Transformation and combination 44
- 46. How to improve development experience during this project and ensure that you win at the end of the next project 46 Section 6
- 47. Development Options • More than a negotiated agreement based on speculation • Multiple options can be explored simultaneously • Associated with current capabilities • Within project constraints 47
- 48. Requisite Variety 48 = variety of potential responses = variety of disturbances (problems) = variety of outcomes tolerable by the essential variables Formulated by W Ross Ashby
- 49. Achieving Requisite Variety • Mobilize network of contributors with diverse specialties and multiple perspectives • Additional training • Access to expertise • Cooperation 49
- 50. Without requisite variety, familiar patterns may not be recognized as insufficient responses 50
- 51. Without a variety of potential responses at the appropriate times, a development environment may be fragile 51
- 52. Excessive variety may reduce agility 52
- 53. To ensure the adaptability of the development network 53 • Amplify appropriately • Attenuate appropriately
- 54. Disintermediation • Remove layers between individual contributors and data • Remove barriers between decision makers 54
- 55. Facilitate Disintermediation • Experience interactions of customers with prototypes • Direct observations that promote full-fidelity interactions 55
- 56. Pair Development • Interaction of disciplines • Synthesis of options • Develop self-correcting focus and direction informed by the analyses of multiple perspective 56
- 58. Recursion Recursion: any solution or technique in which large problems are solved by reducing them to smaller problems of the same form. 58
- 59. 59 Ilya Prigogine is known for his definition of dissipative structures and their role in thermodynamic systems far-from-equilibrium. He won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1977.
- 60. Fragility in a development environment tends to promote procrustean rules, mediocrity, and apathy 60 In a fragile environment, one problem or one failure or one inadequacy can impede success
- 61. An antifragile development environment benefits from a moderate amount of stress 61 Antifragility in a development environment tends to promote autonomy, mastery, and purpose
- 62. How Pixar Wins • Successfully searching rather than avoiding failure • A successful project is comprised of millions of ideas and decisions. Show incomplete work (Dailies and notes from Brain Trust) • Relatively few projects • Training that promotes interaction 62 “Showing work in an incomplete state reduces the potential for one group to perfect the wrong thing”
- 63. Summary Optionality 63 Synthesizing and Exercising Attractive Options for Non-linear Gains during your Next Project • Development options • Requisite Variety • Amplify and attenuate • Disintermediation • Pair development • Detect mismatches • Recursion • Far-from-equilibrium • Antifragile
- 64. Optionality: Synthesizing and Exercising Attractive Options for Non-linear Gains during your Next Project www.Developing-Winners.com mark.hart@OpLaunch.com Twitter: @OpLaunch LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahart 64
Editor's Notes
- Optionality: Synthesizing and Exercising Attractive Options for Non-linear Gains during your Next Project. Mark A Hart, OpLaunch Presented at Boyd and Beyond, Quantico Virginia 4 October 2014
- During this presentation, I will analyze insights on winning from John Boyd and insights on optionality from Nicholas Taleb to synthesize an optionality approach to development. Boyd had a lot to say about winning. His final brief was titled “The Essence of Winning and Losing.” It is sometimes referred to as “The Big Squeeze” because he was experiencing some health problems and was urged to condense some of his insights. Much of Nicholas Taleb’s career was spent as an options trader on Wall Street. His first best selling book was “The Black Swan.” Black Swan theory refers to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence. Typically, black swan events are unpredicted. They are rationalized in hindsight. Another best seller was “Antifragility” and I will summarize a few highlights from that book. Then I will expand several concepts and combine those with insights from Boyd. My goal will be to share insights on how you can win at product development.
- During this presentation, I will review a few common approaches to new product development projects. I will summarize the topics of optionality and antifragility as they are described in Taleb’s book. I will summarize how to use the OODA Loop sketch to represent several situations that occur during new product development. I will integrate Boyd’s ideas on analyses, synthesis and winning then relate that to new product development. I introduce development options. With that background, I will provide recommendations on designing to improve development experience during your current project and to ensure that you win at the end of your next project.
- Section 1 - The Gnomes of Product Development There is a myth that successful product development begins with a flash of insight and that insight somehow transforms into a win. The lingering question is “What is Phase 2?” This question inspired the title of the section, The Gnomes of Product Development. Some of you will recognize that this phrase is a spoof of an episode of South Park, Season 2. Most projects start with a product idea that may or may not evolve. The typical goal for a project is a win. There are many opinions associated with the efforts between the initial product idea and a win. The question may be expressed as “What is Phase 2?” Individuals with specific backgrounds (MBA, design, …) tend to favor certain perspectives. Here are a few examples: Metrics (financial, influence,…) Enhanced processes Enhanced tools Best practices Enhanced approaches (such as Design Thinking) Incremental innovation or disruptive innovation What is not a myth is that too many projects fail. Sometimes, projects fail because of beliefs in the accuracy of forecasts. Success may rely too much on a big design effort that is supposed to be followed by a flawless execution. Sometimes, Phase 2 takes a very long time. Consider the following: Phase 1: Electric Car Phase 2: ? Phase 3: Tesla Model S is rated the best performing car ever tested by Consumer Reports The first practical electric cars were developed in late in the 19th century. Tesla Motors was founded in 2003. The Model S was announced in mid-2008. The Model S earned the top score in 2013. For the Tesla Model S, success required more than a product idea. Other entrepreneurs had the same idea and they were not successful. Sometimes, the scope of a product development project is too incremental. Too many developers are not challenged. Too many developers are disengaged.
- I am a product developer. I like the trio of Autonomy, Mastery, and Purpose (for the current project, and the next projects) expressed by Dan Pink in his book, Drive. As a product developer, I desire a great project experience that contributes to my motivation. During this presentation, I share insights and stories about designing to improve development experiences that improve optionality to win.
- Section 2 - Optionality A generic definition of optionality is a quality of state where choice or discretion is allowed.
- Financial Options A typical financial option provides a buyer with the potential to take action by a specified date without an associated obligation to buy or sell. Typically, an individual decides to exercise an option based on their perception of value at a specific time. According to Taleb, optionality is the property of asymmetric upside (preferably unlimited) with correspondingly limited downside (preferably small).
- Payoff Function For a financial option, the preferred payoff functions are asymmetric. The size of the potential gain is larger than the size of the potential loss. Convexity relates to the curvature of the line. According to Taleb, convex payoffs benefit from uncertainty and disorder. Convexity can be increased by lowering costs per trial.
- In Chapter 12 Taleb explained that "an option is a substitute for knowledge.” If you develop appropriate options, you have an alternative to dependence on the accuracy of detailed forecasts and plans. The gain from a few appropriate winning options can offset many small losses.
- There is overlap between Taleb’s insights on options and Boyd’s insights on repertoire, which includes a variety of responses. If someone detects a pattern, they can apply a solution. Repertoire CAN be applied rapidly. Novices tend to have a small repertoire.
- Section 3 - Antifragile The word ‘antifragile' is an adjective created by Taleb. It can be defined as the exact opposite of fragile. According to Taleb, "Antifragile is beyond resilience or robustness."
- Every development environment can be characterized in terms of its fragility, robustness, resilience, and antifragility. These are not mutually exclusive. Many organizations convey their development environment with a diagram of their process. Typically, this does not provide enough of the information to characterize the environment. However, a sequential process with decision points tends to separate individuals into functional groups with handoffs between groups that may be fragile transitions.
- From project-to-project, a robust development environment tends to survive unchanged. Processes tend to be preserved. Individual contributors tend to retain their employment status. From project-to-project, a resilient development environment survives changes from external factors. After a project is complete, there may be changes such as a re-arrangement of the organizational chart. New tools may be incorporated. The organization survives to serve the needs of the next project. A resilient environment is like an electrical circuit with a circuit breaker - when something bad occurs, the breaker protects the components and the system is reset.
- Antifragile Systems An antifragile system thrives and grows when exposed to a moderate amount of volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors. An antifragile system benefits from a moderate amount of adventure, risk, and uncertainty.
- According to Taleb, "The option is an agent of antifragility.” Options enable vitality and growth. Developing appropriate options facilitate the opportunity for independent action.
- Antifragile Example 1 Netflix strives to be antifragile. They attack their solutions to make themselves a stronger company and improve their development environment. Their chaos monkey randomly terminate various services. They stress their system to build up their ability to withstand attacks.
- Antifragile Example 2 In the late 1950s and the first half of 1960, Boyd and his students at Nellis Air Force Base incorporated activities to improve their antifragility. In the time between the classroom and the debrief: “They played grabass. They went rat-racing. They got into furballs. Boyd gave them their chance and one by one he hosed them, and then he nursed them along, teaching, demonstrating how to control the Hun” (Coram) Image from http://www.nellis.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123310303
- Section 5 - OODA Loop sketch This section begins with a illustration that closely resembles the sketch from the draft version of “The Essence of Winning and Losing” of 1995. Boyd’s sketch is shown is the upper right.
- As I described in my presentation last year, I developed a visualization to represent the duration of an OODA loop by the width a the box. Longer durations are represented by wider boxes.
- Representing a series of maneuvers With a way to represent duration, you can represent a series of maneuvers (or other actions) of various durations.
- This enables something wonderful. The duration of a loop can be observed. For an outside observer, the duration of a loop can be estimated by the duration between the start of two successive actions.
- In this illustration, a series of maneuvers is represented by four sequential OODA loops.
- This approach can be extended to represent the efforts of two competitors. In this example, the durations of loops 1 and 2 are the same for both competitors. To the outside observer, it may appear that they are evaluating each other. During this time, each individual evolves a plan. During this time, each individual seeks an opportunity. In this simplified representation, BLUE has determined a way to beat RED before the the completion of loop 2. The duration of loops 3 and 4 occur within RED’s loop 3. RED is defeated and wondering “what just happened?’
- This approach can be used to represent an encounter with Forty Second Boyd, (illustrated in the bottom series in BLUE). During these contests, action began at an altitude of 30,000 feet with the opposing pilot 500 feet behind Boyd. Boyd, as defender, set the initial speed and selected the first maneuver. After a few maneuvers, Boyd was in position for a kill shot. He defeated most contenders in less than half the allotted time. No one defeated him. A win could be confirmed by “sixteen frames of gun-camera film, the equivalent of about a half-second burst of gunfire, to have a (simulated) kill.“ (Coram, P. 86) If Boyd would have been defeated, he would have paid the winning pilot $40, a significant amount of money for a US Air Force Captain that was married with four children. For comparison, Boyd’s payment for his small, three-bedroom house in 1961 was $105.67. A gallon of gasoline was approximately $0.30. The federal minimum wage was $1.00/hour.
- This illustration shows the interaction between two group. The bottom series represents the efforts of a harmonious group. They interact with another individual during loop 3. While waiting for permission, the progress of the group represented by the lower series of OODA loops is ‘blocked.’ This delay may be occur because of a missing deliverable or some other input or output. Perhaps this individual has to provide input to continue or abort an effort. This individual may be in the role of ‘decision maker.’
- This illustration represents the transformation of a single effort to parallel efforts. This example could represent work on two versions of a prototype. After several OODA cycles, one effort was discontinued. Hopefully, the cost for the discontinued effort was minimal. Because of the parallel effort, the time loss was minimal.
- Representing harmonious efforts Harmony derives from a Greek word that means “to fit together.” In a musical context, harmony is the sound of multiple notes heard simultaneously that may be augmented with momentary tension to produce pleasing qualities. Typically, harmony is represented in the structure of a group of notes in a vertical arrangement. Often, harmony is associated with chords. Typically, melody and rhythm are represented in the structure of a group of notes in a horizontal arrangement. Melody occurs as a succession of notes over time. Boyd’s definition of harmony was the “Interaction of apparently disconnected events or entities in a connected way” (Boyd, 1986. Patterns # 125). The lower illustration represents harmonious efforts within an hierarchical organization using OODA Loop sketches.
- There are many items that are not included explicitly in Boyd’s OODA Loop sketch. These items include: Faster tempo or rhythm Agility Fast transients Negative factor : Noble counterweight Fear : Courage Anxiety : Confidence Alienation : Esprit Mistrust : Harmony Uncertainty : Adaptability Menace : Initiative
- Last year, I introduced the stacked representation of an OODA loop sketch. This representation emphasizes that items can occur simultaneously. In addition, this illustration emphasizes that feed forward is shaping of another item, not an information transfer in the time domain. This version of the OODA Loop sketch presents some items on a cloud-filled sky. The items are external to the individual. This distinction emphasizes that actions result from interaction with the environment and this impacts the current and future OODA loops.
- Section 5 - Analyses, Synthesis, and Winning How will you recognize a win? Common confirmations include: Experience (user experience, development experience,…) Problem to be solved Job to be done Let’s start with a winter scene to establish a context. This is a boundary condition. I prefer the concept of boundary conditions over requirements.
- Preparation to recognize a win Consider the following proposition: “In freshly fallen snow, my friends and I want to experience the exhilaration associated with being a fighter pilot.” This statement does not specify a specific solution or technology. Some context has been specified. The solution can be experienced by a group of individuals. The cost to achieve this experience is low enough so that friends can participate. The cost is less than that of obtaining aircraft. The pre-qualification time needs to be a few hours or so and that is less than then that required to earn pilot certification. Extreme physical fitness is not required.
- Analyses and Synthesis To prepare for winning, it is helpful to understand Boyd’s explanation of analyses and synthesis. The Orientation component of the OODA Loop sketch contains an Analyses and Synthesis item. During his briefings, Boyd used a thought experiment to convey his concept of analyses and synthesis. (Boyd, The Strategic Game of ? and ?, 1987)
- Preparing for an Informed Analyses To prepare for an informed analyses: Imagine that you are on a ski slope with other skiers and snowboarders — retain this image. Imagine that you are in an outboard motorboat — maybe even towing water-skiers—retain this image. Imagine that you are riding a bicycle on a nice spring day — retain this image. Imagine that you are a parent with your child observing some excavation. You notice that your child is fascinated by the tractors or tanks with rubber treads on the excavator — retain this image People Skiing and Snowboarding - 172 at https://www.flickr.com/photos/mt_hood_territory/8407904161/ from MtHoodTerritory.com. Creative Commons 2. Some rights reserved. 1958 Evinrude Lark Outboard Motor Advertisement Readers Digest June 1958 from SenseiAlan https://www.flickr.com/photos/91591049@N00/14714584344/ Creative Commons 2. Some rights reserved. Mountain bikers riding up a hill at https://www.flickr.com/photos/hutchike/4549229178/ from Kevin Hutchinson. Creative Commons 2. Some rights reserved.
- To simulate analyses (pulling things apart), Boyd asked attendees to imagine: Pull skis off ski slope; discard and forget the rest of the image. Pull outboard motor out of motorboat; discard and forget rest of image Pull handlebars off bicycle; discard and forget the rest of the image. Pull rubber treads off toy tractors or tanks; discard and forget the rest of the image. People Skiing and Snowboarding - 172 at https://www.flickr.com/photos/mt_hood_territory/8407904161/ from MtHoodTerritory.com. Creative Commons 2. Some rights reserved. 1958 Evinrude Lark Outboard Motor Advertisement Readers Digest June 1958 from SenseiAlan https://www.flickr.com/photos/91591049@N00/14714584344/ Creative Commons 2. Some rights reserved. Ride Sally Ride at https://www.flickr.com/photos/small_realm/14316774715/ from Bob Mical. Creative Commons 2. Some rights reserved.
- To simulate synthesis, the selected items are transformed and combined. This should be a cohesive effort that requires design and engineering expertise. This synthesis may be a mental process, a virtual effort, or a low fidelity prototype. Boyd, The Strategic Game of ? and ?, 1987 Snowmobile sketch based on Polaris RMK.
- In most cases, one instance of an analyses and synthesis effort is not enough for a win. The OODA Loop sketch includes decision and action components. Likewise, one OODA cycle is not enough for a win.
- A synthesis approach enables one to imagine how several capabilities may work together to produce the desired result.
- Boyd’s revelation summarized his insights about winners and losers. “A loser is someone — individual or group — who cannot build snowmobiles when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change; Whereas, A winner is someone — individual or group — who can build snowmobiles, and employ them in an appropriate fashion, when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change.” (Boyd, Revelation, 1987) Boyd's distinction that winners "build snowmobiles, and employ them in an appropriate fashion" acknowledges that winners are capable of synthesizing options and they are persistent in evaluating the interaction of people with products. The phrase 'appropriate fashion' includes characteristics such as the product's features and the product's reliability. The word 'can' emphasizing timing factors (such as was there snow to test a snowmobile, technology readiness, and the current alternatives offered by competitors).
- Winning requires more than defining the problem or analyses and synthesis. It requires is building and employing products in an appropriate fashion when there are unknowns. Image from http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Snowmobile_race.jpg. Trevor MacInnis. Creative Commons.
- A winner is not required to be the inventor of a product or the first to market it. In 1917, Virgil D. White received a patent for "an attachment designed to convert a Model T into a 'Snowmobile,' a name coined and copyrighted by White" in 1913. http://www.postalmuseum.si.edu/museum/1d_Snowbird.html
- To validate that this is a winning solution, review the original proposition. In freshly fallen snow, my friends and I want to experience the exhilaration associated with being a fighter pilot. This is a classic racing experience. Is there a way to increase the exhilaration?
- To increase the exhilaration, prepare for additional analysis. Consider other activities. Consider your experience at a paintball tournament with friends. Retain that image. Consider the game mechanics associated with the offer from Forty second Boyd. Boyd had a standing offer that he could defeat any opposing pilot in simulated air-to-air combat in less than forty seconds. Action began at an altitude of 30,000 feet with the opposing pilot 500 feet behind Boyd. Boyd, as defender, set the initial speed and selected the first maneuver. After a few maneuvers, Boyd was in position for a kill shot. He defeated most contenders in less than half the allotted time. Blue Paintball 18 by Mustafa Khayat at https://www.flickr.com/photos/mustafakhayat/10213753235/
- To simulate analyses (pulling things apart): Retain the snowmobile from the previous synthesis. Take the paintball gun from the image from the tournament; discard and forget the rest of the image. Use the guidelines of one contented starting in an defensive position with the attractor in the rear just out of range of the paintball gun. Retain the 40 second time limit. Blue Paintball 18 by Mustafa Khayat at https://www.flickr.com/photos/mustafakhayat/10213753235/
- To simulate synthesis, the selected items are transformed and combined. In this case, the goal is to improve the previous effort. The fixed mount paintball rifle is activated by a control on the bar. Boyd, The Strategic Game of ? and ?, 1987) Snowmobile sketch based on Polaris RMK.
- Validate the original proposition. When employing the snowmobiles with the addition of non-lethal weapons and gameplay in freshly fallen snow is the exhilaration sufficient? Is there a need for another round of analysis and synthesis? Does the original proposition need to be revised? This illustration represents three snapshots of the development network over time. There is an embedded series of OODA loops that represent individual contributors interacting harmoniously. The images to the left of the arrow represent the analyses and synthesis. The images could represent thought experiments, engineering drawings, and prototypes.
- Section 6: How to improve development experience during this project and ensure that you win at the end of the next project. This illustration contains representation of: Four snapshots of the development network over time. The diversity of colors represents individuals with different roles. An embedded series of OODA loops that represent individual contributors interacting harmoniously Synthesizing attractive options and exercising options A validated user experience. Bigger gains than losses This section explore how these concepts contribute to development experience and how this increases the potential to win.
- Development Options To improve the potential for success in new product development environments, an option must be more than a negotiated agreement based on a speculation. Development options can go beyond a yes or no choice to adopt a particular course of action. The illustration at the bottom represents several options being explored simultaneously. This illustration represents development being done with a group of three individuals. After three OODA Loop cycles, two options are explored at the same time. These options could be two prototypes. In this case, one option is discontinued after two OODA Loop cycles. Hopefully, the cost and effort were minimal. The synthesize options and exercise options illustration complements the OODA Loop sketch. The synthesize portion includes four items that are ideas described in documents. The exercise portion includes three items represented as prototypes. Development options are the most valuable when associated with current capabilities or capabilities that may be acquired within an appropriate amount of time for an appropriate cost within the project constraints.
- Requisite Variety The concept of requisite variety can be used to explain the importance of having a diversity of individuals to synthesize and exercise attractive responses in a development environment Requisite Variety: For a system to be viable, only a variety in responses can force down the variety due to disturbances. For a development environment to be successful, only a large repertoire of possible responses can address the variety presented by a complex set of development problems that emerge throughout projects. The Law of Requisite Variety was formulated by W. Ross Ashby
- Achieving Requisite Variety In a new product development environment, requisite variety may be achieved by mobilizing a network of contributors with diverse specialties and multiple perspectives. To be successful, individuals may require additional training, access to individuals with unique expertise, and cooperation.
- Without requisite variety, previously successful responses to familiar patterns may not be recognized as insufficient responses.
- Without a variety of potential responses at the appropriate times, a development environment may be fragile. It is beneficial to have more than one way to accomplish a task.
- If there is excessive variety, the agility of the development environment may be reduced. It is beneficial to develop the capability to recognize inferior solutions. Avoid situation where there is ‘analysis paralysis’ - where action is blocked because of an excess of choices.
- To ensure appropriate adaptability, the network determines that certain responses should be amplified. Other responses are attenuated. Strive to develop efforts that embrace a holistic perspective and contribute to a system win.
- Disintermediation removes layers between individual contributors and data. It removes barriers between decision makers. Disintermediation enables faster OODA Loop times.
- Facilitate Disintermediation One way to facilitate disintermediation in new product development environments involves individual contributors experiencing the interactions of customers with prototypes (or other experiments related to the product being developed). Direct observations that promote full-fidelity interactions are preferable to mediation approaches such as presenting individuals with reports that summarize activities.
- Pair Development Pair Development is implemented by facilitating the interaction of individuals of different disciplines (such as a coder and a marketer). Pair development provides an opportunity for interaction through activities such as dialog and sketching. The result of pair development should be the synthesis of options, not a summary of previous activities. Typically, no slides sets are used during these interactions. The duration of a session may be approximately one hour per week. The purpose of pair development is not cross-training. The purpose is to develop a self-correcting focus and direction informed by the analyses of multiple perspectives.
- Mismatches Mismatch can refer to the difference between the phenomena that is observed and the conceptual description of that situation. Mismatches tend to occur where the opinions expressed during a meeting or from a report are not validated with interactions with potential customer. Design your product development network for requisite variety to help plan experiments and evaluate results. Strive to rapidly develop prototypes and validate solutions. This will enable the network to improve its capability to detect mismatches.
- Recursion With a requisite variety of perspectives required to win, evaluate solutions or techniques by solving problems by reducing them to smaller problems of the same form. Ensure that your validation goes beyond survey results. Evaluate prototypes beyond their functionality. Evaluate how you communicate the solution. Evaluate the user’s experience. Evaluate how one user describes the solution to another user.
- The last item in “The Essence of Winning and Losing” includes the phrase ‘far-from-equilibrium’ which suggests that Boyd was building on the work of Ilya Prigogine. Prigogine’s work explored what happens when an abundant amount of energy is added to a system. He showed that new entities can form. Entities that did not exist at equilibrium. Entities that were different than the components from which they formed. Prigogine won the Nobel Prize for chemistry (thermodynamics) in 1977 for this work. This concept has been extended to teams and societies. In terms of development networks, Boyd advocates an evolving, open-ended, far-from-equilibrium process seems to move beyond the status quo (which is analogous to equilibrium) to the novel. Winning may require adding energy in the form of new people or new ideas. This produces novelty and this is a driver of innovation.
- In a fragile environment, one problem or one failure or one inadequacy can impede success. An example of fragility in a development environment can be imagined as a problematic handoff in a sequential process. Inadequacies in a deliverable from one group misguide the efforts of the next group. If the group responsible for the scoping of requirements transfers an inadequate deliverable to a group responsible for producing an initial design, the probability of success is impeded. Instead of autonomy, mastery, and purpose, fragility in a development environment may tend to promote procrustean rules, mediocrity, and apathy.
- An antifragile development environment benefits from a moderate amount of stress. This illustration represents the results of pair development. New insights improve the network’s capability to synthesize options. The interaction improves communication and the potential for implicit coordination. The network is designed to make sense of emerging situations and to correct mismatches from factors such as accumulated learning, evolving market conditions, and new boundary conditions. The development environment its continuously self-correcting, network-informed focus and direction to adapt the product concept. Antifragility tends to promote autonomy, mastery, and purpose.
- How Pixar Wins Pixar has produced an amazing series of commercially successful movies. Ed Catmull, a co-founder of Pixar, believes that “the goal of development is not to find good ideas. It is to put together teams of people that function well together.” Pixar’s in-house training program is called Pixar University. It provides opportunities for individuals to improve their skills. The training sessions promote interactions among all individuals within Pixar. The layout of the Pixar building is designed to promote interactions among employees. The search for success occurs within relatively few projects. Groups show work in an incomplete state to reduce the potential for one group to perfect the wrong thing. More information at http://oplaunch.com/documents/From_mediocre_concepts_to_successful_launch_Insights_from_Pixar_on_developing_great_products.pdf
- Optionality Summary The capability to synthesize many options and exercise attractive development options rapidly throughout a project enables a properly prepared network of individual contributors to realize non-linear gains that are not possible by alternate development approaches such as ones that focus on managing mandates. Some of the insights to facilitate wins: The synthesis of many options is facilitated by mobilizing a network with a diversity of specialities (requisite variety) and practicing pair development. Rapidity is facilitated by designing for disintermediation and enhancing the capability of the network to detect mismatches. The determination of attractiveness can be improved by designing for recursive approaches.