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Mark A Hart, NPDP
1
Antifragility in New Product
Development:
How Enhancing Optionality Improves
Development Experience
Outline
• Characterizing development environments
• Iatrogenesis
• Typical Options
• Development Options
• Comparing Devel...
Characterizations of
development environments
• Fragile
• Robust
• Resilient
• Antifragile
3
Fragile development
environments
• Do not welcome disorder
• When uncertainty is injected,
the typical results are
unpleas...
5
One obstacle
can prevent the
realization of
value
Examples of harmful
conditions:
• Incorrect, incomplete, or
misleading information
• Problematic handoffs
• Disagreements ...
Examples of
unpleasant results:
• Delays
• Cost overruns
• Insufficient adoption of the
product
• Frustration
7
8
The more fragile the
development
environment, the less
likely it is to thrive
From project-to-project
• Robust development
environments tend to survive
unchanged
• Resilient development
environments s...
Antifragile
• An adjective created by Taleb
• The exact opposite of fragile
10
11
Antifragile is
beyond
resilience or
robustness
Antifragile
An antifragile system thrives and grows
when exposed to volatility,
randomness, disorder, and stressors
and it...
13
Iatrogenics:
Damage from
treatment in
excess of the
benefits
14
Preventable harm
resulting from the
treatment or
advice of a healer
Iatrogenics:
Sources of potentially
harmful inputs
• Specialists that insist that the
development problem relates to their
area of expe...
16
Recognizing harmfulness is
more difficult in
development environments
that isolate individuals of
different functional
...
17
Iatrogenesis
New product
development
efforts can
suffer from
Reduce harmful inputs by:
• Requisite Variety
• Disintermediation
• Pair Development
18
19
Formulated by W Ross Ashby
= variety of potential responses
= variety of disturbances (problems)
= variety of outcomes ...
20
Requisite variety
requires a large
repertoire of
possible responses
21
Achieving Requisite Variety
• Mobilize network of contributors
with diverse specialties and
multiple perspectives
• Add...
22
Without requisite
variety, familiar
patterns may not be
recognized as
insufficient responses
23
Without a variety of potential
responses at the appropriate
times, a development
environment may be
24
Excessive
variety may
reduce agility
To ensure the
adaptability of the
development network
• Amplify appropriately
• Attenuate appropriately
25
Disintermediation
• Remove layers between
individual contributors
and data
• Remove barriers between
decision makers
26
27
Facilitate Disintermediation
• Experience
interactions of
customers with
prototypes
• Direct observations
that promote ...
Pair Development
• Interaction of disciplines
• Synthesis of options
• Develop self-correcting focus and direction
28
29
Reducing
iatrogenesis is
a prerequisite
to synthesizing
more attractive
options
Typical Options
• Provides the buyer the potential to
take action
• No obligation to buy or sell
30
31
A quality of state
where choice or
discretion is allowed
32
An option is a
substitute for
knowledge
33
Antifragility
supersedes
intelligence
Typical Options
• Initially depends on factors
such as negotiation skills
• Eventually depends on the
type of control indi...
Development Options
• Associated with current
capabilities
• Within project constraints
35
36
Synthesis: a process of connection to
generate something new and different
37
A synthesis approach
enables one to imagine
how several capabilities
may work together to
produce the desired result
38
Analyze situations and synthesize new
options continuously
39
Interaction with the environment that enables
individuals to comprehend, shape, and adapt
40
Enables faster tempos and rhythms and
compression of cycle times
41
Non-linear gains by synthesizing many options and
exercising attractive development options
42
Comparing Development Options to Concepts
Represented in Boyd’s OODA Loop Sketch
© Illustration by Mark A Hart 2014. Lo...
Enhancing Optionality throughout Development
Change the environment to
improve the capability to
synthesize many developme...
Enhancing Optionality throughout Development
• Design the development environment to embrace
optionality
• Produce new rep...
“skin in the game”
Development Experience
45
46
Development Experience
may improve
incrementally by
reducing fragility,
increasing robustness, or
increasing resilience
47
Development Experience
may improve dramatically
by designing the
environment to improve
antifragility
48
The option is
an agent of
antifragility
49
Development options are
agents of development
experience
Developing Winners:
Assimilating the Insights
Encapsulated in Boyd's
OODA Loop
50
www.Developing-Winners.com
Mark A Hart
51
www.OpLaunch.com
Twitter:
Antifragility in
New Product
Development:
How Enhancing
Optionality Improves
Deve...
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Antifragility in New Product Development: How Enhancing Optionality Improves Development Experience

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In the book Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shared insights on optionality that can be expanded to include new product development environments.

This presentation provides an introduction to the non-linear gains associated with antifragile systems that may be realized by designing new product development environments that help individuals improve their capability to synthesize many new options continuously and enhance their proficiency to exercise options that are attractive. This presentation includes a comparison to concepts represented in Boyd's OODA Loop sketch.

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance
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Antifragility in New Product Development: How Enhancing Optionality Improves Development Experience

  1. 1. Mark A Hart, NPDP 1 Antifragility in New Product Development: How Enhancing Optionality Improves Development Experience
  2. 2. Outline • Characterizing development environments • Iatrogenesis • Typical Options • Development Options • Comparing Development Options to Concepts Represented in Boyd’s OODA Loop Sketch • Enhancing Optionality throughout Development • Antifragility and Development Experience 2
  3. 3. Characterizations of development environments • Fragile • Robust • Resilient • Antifragile 3
  4. 4. Fragile development environments • Do not welcome disorder • When uncertainty is injected, the typical results are unpleasant 4
  5. 5. 5 One obstacle can prevent the realization of value
  6. 6. Examples of harmful conditions: • Incorrect, incomplete, or misleading information • Problematic handoffs • Disagreements among functional groups 6
  7. 7. Examples of unpleasant results: • Delays • Cost overruns • Insufficient adoption of the product • Frustration 7
  8. 8. 8 The more fragile the development environment, the less likely it is to thrive
  9. 9. From project-to-project • Robust development environments tend to survive unchanged • Resilient development environments survive changes from external factors 9
  10. 10. Antifragile • An adjective created by Taleb • The exact opposite of fragile 10
  11. 11. 11 Antifragile is beyond resilience or robustness
  12. 12. Antifragile An antifragile system thrives and grows when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and it welcomes adventure, risk, and uncertainty 12
  13. 13. 13 Iatrogenics: Damage from treatment in excess of the benefits
  14. 14. 14 Preventable harm resulting from the treatment or advice of a healer Iatrogenics:
  15. 15. Sources of potentially harmful inputs • Specialists that insist that the development problem relates to their area of expertise • Innovation pundits, consultants, and vendors • Interventionalists • Status quo 15
  16. 16. 16 Recognizing harmfulness is more difficult in development environments that isolate individuals of different functional specialties
  17. 17. 17 Iatrogenesis New product development efforts can suffer from
  18. 18. Reduce harmful inputs by: • Requisite Variety • Disintermediation • Pair Development 18
  19. 19. 19 Formulated by W Ross Ashby = variety of potential responses = variety of disturbances (problems) = variety of outcomes tolerable by the essential variables Requisite Variety
  20. 20. 20 Requisite variety requires a large repertoire of possible responses
  21. 21. 21 Achieving Requisite Variety • Mobilize network of contributors with diverse specialties and multiple perspectives • Additional training • Access to expertise • Cooperation
  22. 22. 22 Without requisite variety, familiar patterns may not be recognized as insufficient responses
  23. 23. 23 Without a variety of potential responses at the appropriate times, a development environment may be
  24. 24. 24 Excessive variety may reduce agility
  25. 25. To ensure the adaptability of the development network • Amplify appropriately • Attenuate appropriately 25
  26. 26. Disintermediation • Remove layers between individual contributors and data • Remove barriers between decision makers 26
  27. 27. 27 Facilitate Disintermediation • Experience interactions of customers with prototypes • Direct observations that promote full- fidelity interactions
  28. 28. Pair Development • Interaction of disciplines • Synthesis of options • Develop self-correcting focus and direction 28
  29. 29. 29 Reducing iatrogenesis is a prerequisite to synthesizing more attractive options
  30. 30. Typical Options • Provides the buyer the potential to take action • No obligation to buy or sell 30
  31. 31. 31 A quality of state where choice or discretion is allowed
  32. 32. 32 An option is a substitute for knowledge
  33. 33. 33 Antifragility supersedes intelligence
  34. 34. Typical Options • Initially depends on factors such as negotiation skills • Eventually depends on the type of control individuals have over their decisions 34
  35. 35. Development Options • Associated with current capabilities • Within project constraints 35
  36. 36. 36 Synthesis: a process of connection to generate something new and different
  37. 37. 37 A synthesis approach enables one to imagine how several capabilities may work together to produce the desired result
  38. 38. 38 Analyze situations and synthesize new options continuously
  39. 39. 39 Interaction with the environment that enables individuals to comprehend, shape, and adapt
  40. 40. 40 Enables faster tempos and rhythms and compression of cycle times
  41. 41. 41 Non-linear gains by synthesizing many options and exercising attractive development options
  42. 42. 42 Comparing Development Options to Concepts Represented in Boyd’s OODA Loop Sketch © Illustration by Mark A Hart 2014. Lower graphic is based on “The Essence of Winning and Losing,” John R Boyd, June 1995.
  43. 43. Enhancing Optionality throughout Development Change the environment to improve the capability to synthesize many development options and exercise attractive development options 43
  44. 44. Enhancing Optionality throughout Development • Design the development environment to embrace optionality • Produce new repertoire • Develop capabilities for rapid observation, orientation, decision, and action • Improve the capability to shift rapidly between options • Improve the capability to synthesize options that are cohesive across the network and cohesive over the duration of the project • Improve the proficiency to exercise attractive options 44
  45. 45. “skin in the game” Development Experience 45
  46. 46. 46 Development Experience may improve incrementally by reducing fragility, increasing robustness, or increasing resilience
  47. 47. 47 Development Experience may improve dramatically by designing the environment to improve antifragility
  48. 48. 48 The option is an agent of antifragility
  49. 49. 49 Development options are agents of development experience
  50. 50. Developing Winners: Assimilating the Insights Encapsulated in Boyd's OODA Loop 50 www.Developing-Winners.com
  51. 51. Mark A Hart 51 www.OpLaunch.com Twitter: Antifragility in New Product Development: How Enhancing Optionality Improves Development Experience 18 June 2014 Development Experience @OpLaunch

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