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Antifragility in New Product Development: How Enhancing Optionality Improves Development Experience

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In the book Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shared insights on optionality that can be expanded to include new product development environments.

This presentation provides an introduction to the non-linear gains associated with antifragile systems that may be realized by designing new product development environments that help individuals improve their capability to synthesize many new options continuously and enhance their proficiency to exercise options that are attractive. This presentation includes a comparison to concepts represented in Boyd's OODA Loop sketch.

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Antifragility in New Product Development: How Enhancing Optionality Improves Development Experience

  1. 1. Mark A Hart, NPDP 1 Antifragility in New Product Development: How Enhancing Optionality Improves Development Experience
  2. 2. Outline • Characterizing development environments • Iatrogenesis • Typical Options • Development Options • Comparing Development Options to Concepts Represented in Boyd’s OODA Loop Sketch • Enhancing Optionality throughout Development • Antifragility and Development Experience 2
  3. 3. Characterizations of development environments • Fragile • Robust • Resilient • Antifragile 3
  4. 4. Fragile development environments • Do not welcome disorder • When uncertainty is injected, the typical results are unpleasant 4
  5. 5. 5 One obstacle can prevent the realization of value
  6. 6. Examples of harmful conditions: • Incorrect, incomplete, or misleading information • Problematic handoffs • Disagreements among functional groups 6
  7. 7. Examples of unpleasant results: • Delays • Cost overruns • Insufficient adoption of the product • Frustration 7
  8. 8. 8 The more fragile the development environment, the less likely it is to thrive
  9. 9. From project-to-project • Robust development environments tend to survive unchanged • Resilient development environments survive changes from external factors 9
  10. 10. Antifragile • An adjective created by Taleb • The exact opposite of fragile 10
  11. 11. 11 Antifragile is beyond resilience or robustness
  12. 12. Antifragile An antifragile system thrives and grows when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and it welcomes adventure, risk, and uncertainty 12
  13. 13. 13 Iatrogenics: Damage from treatment in excess of the benefits
  14. 14. 14 Preventable harm resulting from the treatment or advice of a healer Iatrogenics:
  15. 15. Sources of potentially harmful inputs • Specialists that insist that the development problem relates to their area of expertise • Innovation pundits, consultants, and vendors • Interventionalists • Status quo 15
  16. 16. 16 Recognizing harmfulness is more difficult in development environments that isolate individuals of different functional specialties
  17. 17. 17 Iatrogenesis New product development efforts can suffer from
  18. 18. Reduce harmful inputs by: • Requisite Variety • Disintermediation • Pair Development 18
  19. 19. 19 Formulated by W Ross Ashby = variety of potential responses = variety of disturbances (problems) = variety of outcomes tolerable by the essential variables Requisite Variety
  20. 20. 20 Requisite variety requires a large repertoire of possible responses
  21. 21. 21 Achieving Requisite Variety • Mobilize network of contributors with diverse specialties and multiple perspectives • Additional training • Access to expertise • Cooperation
  22. 22. 22 Without requisite variety, familiar patterns may not be recognized as insufficient responses
  23. 23. 23 Without a variety of potential responses at the appropriate times, a development environment may be
  24. 24. 24 Excessive variety may reduce agility
  25. 25. To ensure the adaptability of the development network • Amplify appropriately • Attenuate appropriately 25
  26. 26. Disintermediation • Remove layers between individual contributors and data • Remove barriers between decision makers 26
  27. 27. 27 Facilitate Disintermediation • Experience interactions of customers with prototypes • Direct observations that promote full- fidelity interactions
  28. 28. Pair Development • Interaction of disciplines • Synthesis of options • Develop self-correcting focus and direction 28
  29. 29. 29 Reducing iatrogenesis is a prerequisite to synthesizing more attractive options
  30. 30. Typical Options • Provides the buyer the potential to take action • No obligation to buy or sell 30
  31. 31. 31 A quality of state where choice or discretion is allowed
  32. 32. 32 An option is a substitute for knowledge
  33. 33. 33 Antifragility supersedes intelligence
  34. 34. Typical Options • Initially depends on factors such as negotiation skills • Eventually depends on the type of control individuals have over their decisions 34
  35. 35. Development Options • Associated with current capabilities • Within project constraints 35
  36. 36. 36 Synthesis: a process of connection to generate something new and different
  37. 37. 37 A synthesis approach enables one to imagine how several capabilities may work together to produce the desired result
  38. 38. 38 Analyze situations and synthesize new options continuously
  39. 39. 39 Interaction with the environment that enables individuals to comprehend, shape, and adapt
  40. 40. 40 Enables faster tempos and rhythms and compression of cycle times
  41. 41. 41 Non-linear gains by synthesizing many options and exercising attractive development options
  42. 42. 42 Comparing Development Options to Concepts Represented in Boyd’s OODA Loop Sketch © Illustration by Mark A Hart 2014. Lower graphic is based on “The Essence of Winning and Losing,” John R Boyd, June 1995.
  43. 43. Enhancing Optionality throughout Development Change the environment to improve the capability to synthesize many development options and exercise attractive development options 43
  44. 44. Enhancing Optionality throughout Development • Design the development environment to embrace optionality • Produce new repertoire • Develop capabilities for rapid observation, orientation, decision, and action • Improve the capability to shift rapidly between options • Improve the capability to synthesize options that are cohesive across the network and cohesive over the duration of the project • Improve the proficiency to exercise attractive options 44
  45. 45. “skin in the game” Development Experience 45
  46. 46. 46 Development Experience may improve incrementally by reducing fragility, increasing robustness, or increasing resilience
  47. 47. 47 Development Experience may improve dramatically by designing the environment to improve antifragility
  48. 48. 48 The option is an agent of antifragility
  49. 49. 49 Development options are agents of development experience
  50. 50. Developing Winners: Assimilating the Insights Encapsulated in Boyd's OODA Loop 50 www.Developing-Winners.com
  51. 51. Mark A Hart 51 www.OpLaunch.com Twitter: Antifragility in New Product Development: How Enhancing Optionality Improves Development Experience 18 June 2014 Development Experience @OpLaunch

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