The Share of Vote: NDA, UPA & AAP

1. A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research
13th January 2014 | 1

2. A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research
13th January 2014 | 2
Monday Mood of India
The upcoming 2014 Lok Sabha elections are going to be very different than its
previous counterparts. What was a simple UPA vs. NDA, simply put Congress vs. BJP,
equation has now taken a new and dramatic angle. The third faction, the newborn Aam
Aadmi Party led by Arvind Kejriwal is giving the veteran parties a tough run. Having
gained 28 seats in the just concluded Delhi Assembly elections and after winning the
Vote of Confidence in the Assembly floor, the next target of AAP would be to replicate
its success in the Lok Sabha elections. Granted that it would be a herculean task for the
broom to make a clean sweep in the Lok Sabha, it is evident that AAP will grab a
considerable chunk of what could have been the NDA vote bank giving all the
permutations and combinations a new shape.
So what is India, the greatest democracy of the world going to witness in two months’
time: A moral win of its common men and a victory over corruption? Or would it be
that the mass of India would rather go for a government run by experienced political
leaders with a promise to give them a stable and accountable government? Our latest
survey, The Monday Mood of India, wanted to gauge the pulse of the Indian electorate
on this issue and the results confirmed that even though Narendra Modi is still far
ahead in the race of the throne, a portion of the electorate is indeed giving the AAP a
serious thought. On questioning who according to them should be the next Prime
Minister of India, 56% of the participants chose Modi, but a sizable chunk of 22%
opted for Arvind Kejriwal as well. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi remained a distant
third with just 10% vote. And which party are they going to choose as the next
government? While 47% chose BJP led NDA , 37% chose Aam Aadmi Party. Congress
led UPA got just 10% vote.
An important point has to be taken into consideration here. A few months ago
Foreseegame.com ran an Opinion Survey with an aim to measure people’s mood
towards the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Even then Narendra Modi was clearly the
choice of Indian electorate. However, in two months time: Arvind Kejriwal with his
new emerging force has managed to grab common people’s attention. The AAP factor
has been able to create further rift in the tattering UPA camp. Though NDA has not
managed to escape unhurt, still their loss is considerably less than UPA. Despite the
AAP factor NDA has lost only 2% of its votebank while UPA’s loss is 11% and other
parties have lost 24% vote bank as compared to the last survey result. The results show
that the emerging AAP factor has worst hit first, the other political parties and then
UPA than it has affected NDA.
Executive Summary

3. A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research
13th January 2014 | 3
The picture will be certainly getting more interesting as 2014 Lok Sabha poll draws
closer.
Foreseegame.com is a unique portal of consumer engagement, which provides a
platform for two way communication and engagement between the brand and the
consumers through games of foresights. Microsec research is the research wing of
Microsec Capital having experienced analysts across the sectors. We used the online
feedback from the users of www.foreseegame.com. The users have been registered
only on the basis of unique mobile numbers and hence, it provides authenticity and
genuineness of the participants. The participation is being monitored by Google.
About 30,000 participants have contributed from all parts of India; however the
limitation of this sample is that it is from the group of people who are users of internet.
The Take Away Points:
1. Though the upswing of Aam Aadmi Party has struck the Indian political equilibrium
with a surprise, Narendra Modi is still No. 1 when it comes to the choice of India’s
next Prime Minister. 56% of the respondents chose Modi as their preferred P.M.
However, a sizable chunk of 22% opted for Arvind Kejriwal as well. On the other
hand, Rahul Gandhi remained a distant third with just 10% vote. Leaders like
Mamata Banerjee, Nitish Kumar and Mulayam Singh Yadav got 3% vote each,
while 4% chose other leaders. It indicates that as of now the fight to the Prime
Minister’s throne is not between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, but between
Modi and Arvind Kejriwal.
2. Which party are the Indian electorates going to vote for? The verdict left winning
gap between the Giant and Goliath. While 47% of the respondents chose BJP led
NDA, 37% opted for Aam Aadmi Party. Congress led UPA again lagged behind with
just 10% vote. 6%, however, remained loyal to other parties.
Executive Summary

4. A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research
13th January 2014 | 4
3. Compared to our earlier report Satyamev Jayate 2, published on 3rd September,
2013, the swing between the choice of the Prime Minister and the choice of voting
suggests that it is sizeable gain for AAP. But the gain is more at the cost of the Third
Front and Congress and less for BJP. Though it is early, but the pattern of swing
suggests that the anti-BJP vote will be further divided, while the pro-BJP vote will
remain with BJP. The prima facie indicates that it will help BJP in increasing the
number of seats.
4. AAP is gaining strong ground in the states where BJP don’t have significant
presence of its own. There is strong swing in favour of AAP in the state of Haryana
and from the current picture it looks that AAP might be able to get a majority in the
assembly election in Haryana and gain significant seats in the Loksabha election from
Haryana.
Let us wait for the next Monday Mood result to know the further change / swing.
Executive Summary

5. A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research
13th January 2014 | 5
The Next Prime Minister of India
56%
10%3%
3%
22%
2%
4%
Graph 1: Survey Results as on 14th January, 2014
Narendra Modi
Rahul Gandhi
Mamata Banerjee
Nitish Kumar
Arvind Kejriwal
Mulayam Singh
Yadav
None of the above
As on 3rd September,
Narendra Modi was clearly
the majority’s choice with a
mammoth 60% vote. On 14th
January, he is still the best
future PM even though his
margin of vote is down by
4%. Arvind Kejriwal is up by
21% and Rahul Gandhi has
further gone down
by 1%. Mulayam Singh
Yadav has gained by 1%.
The swing between the choice
of the Prime Minister and the
choice of voting suggests that
it is sizeable gain for AAP.
But the gain is more at the
cost of the Third Front and
Congress and less for BJP.
Though it is early, but the
pattern of swing suggests that
the anti-BJP vote will be
further divided, while the
pro-BJP vote will remain with
BJP. The prima facie
indicates that it will help BJP
in increasing the number of
seats.
The Comparison Zone
Graph 2: Survey Results as on 3rd September, 2013
60%
11%
3%
2%
1%
1%
22%
Narendra
Modi
Rahul Gandhi
Mamata
Banerjee
Nitish Kumar
Arvind
Kejriwal
Mulayam
Singh Yadav
None of the
above

6. A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research
13th January 2014 | 6
The Share of Vote: NDA, UPA & AAP
The vote swing from the camps of
NDA, UPA and other political
parties towards AAP is evident in the
two graphs. The survey results as in
September, 2013 had got 21% voter
in UPA’s favour while NDA got 49%
vote. 30% remaining vote went to
other parties. However the January,
2014 report shows that AAP and
other parties have jointly got 43%
vote and AAP independently got
37% vote. Therefore, it is just 2%
swing from NDA, whereas 11% from
UPA and 24% from other parties’
house. It shows that the emerging
AAP factor has worst hit the other
political parties and then UPA than
it has affected NDA.
47%
37%
10%
6%
BJP Led NDA
Aam Aadmi Party
Congress Led UPA
Any other
Graph 3: Survey Results as on 14th January, 2014
Graph 4: Survey Results as on 3rd September, 2013
49%
21%
30%
NDA
UPA
Others

7. A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research
13th January 2014 | 7
The Comparison Zone
The Next Prime Minister: State-wise choice
State Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi Arvind Kejriwal Others
Andaman Nicobar 11% 2% 86% 1%
Andhra Pradesh 54% 10% 28% 8%
Arunachal Pradesh 14% 2% 83% 1%
Assam 52% 4% 35% 8%
Bihar 71% 6% 12% 11%
Chandigarh 59% 4% 32% 5%
Chhattisgarh 70% 5% 19% 6%
Daman & Diu 69% 3% 25% 3%
Dadra & Nagar
Haveli 60% 4% 31% 5%
Goa 59% 15% 18% 8%
Gujarat 67% 10% 15% 8%
Haryana 31% 1% 66% 2%
Himachal Pradesh 53% 10% 24% 13%
Jammu & Kashmir 78% 0% 21% 1%
Jharkhand 59% 8% 18% 15%
Karnataka 65% 8% 15% 12%
Kerala 42% 13% 33% 12%
Lakshwadweep 27% 0% 55% 18%
Madhya Pradesh 67% 13% 12% 8%
Maharashtra 60% 12% 13% 15%
Manipur 50% 17% 25% 8%
Meghalaya 17% 17% 50% 16%
Mizoram 17% 0% 83% 0%
Nagaland 20% 10% 70% 0%
NCR 50% 8% 36% 6%
Orissa 41% 14% 13% 32%
Pondicherry 29% 38% 4% 29%
Punjab 51% 7% 26% 16%
Rajasthan 69% 8% 7% 16%
Sikkim 40% 13% 33% 14%
Tamil Nadu 61% 9% 14% 16%
Tripura 46% 17% 21% 16%
Uttar Pradesh 63% 9% 16% 12%
Uttarakhand 77% 1% 20% 2%
West Bengal 57% 11% 20% 12%

8. A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research
13th January 2014 | 8
State BJP Led NDA Congress Led UPA AAP Others
Andaman Nicobar 8.00% 1.00% 91% 0%
Andhra Pradesh 40% 10% 41% 9%
Arunachal Pradesh 10% 3% 86% 1%
Assam 46% 5% 46% 3%
Bihar 58% 3% 26% 13%
Chandigarh 48% 4% 44% 4%
Chhattisgarh 51% 6% 27% 16%
Dadra & Nagar
Haveli 42% 5% 33% 20%
Daman & Diu 39% 0% 36% 25%
Goa 52% 7% 35% 6%
Gujarat 57% 13% 26% 4%
Haryana 23% 1% 75% 1%
Himachal Pradesh 38% 12% 43% 7%
Jammu & Kashmir 80% 1% 18% 1%
Jharkhand 51% 9% 33% 7%
Karnataka 43% 14% 39% 4%
Kerala 23% 17% 59% 1%
Lakshwadweep 20% 0% 80% 0%
Madhya Pradesh 52% 9% 36% 3%
Maharashtra 48% 13% 33% 6%
Manipur 55% 0% 45% 0%
Meghalaya 40% 0% 60% 0%
Mizoram 17% 0% 83% 0%
Nagaland 18% 9% 64% 9%
NCR 38% 4% 57% 1%
Orissa 38% 17% 30% 15%
Pondicherry 30% 37% 33% 0%
Punjab 24% 5% 68% 3%
Rajasthan 63% 10% 21% 6%
Sikkim 20% 0% 80% 0%
Tamil Nadu 49% 12% 31% 8%
Tripura 35% 13% 48% 4%
Uttar Pradesh 65% 7% 23% 5%
Uttarakhand 67% 3% 29% 1%
West Bengal 48% 11% 34% 7%
Vote for the Party: State-wise choice
The Comparison Zone