16th Lok Sabha Election

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The wind of change has started blowing rapidly. With the general elections 2014 getting closer by day, Indian political scenario is currently buzzing with deep anticipation.

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16th Lok Sabha Election

  1. 1. A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 27th January 2014 | 1
  2. 2. Monday Mood of India Executive Summary The wind of change has started blowing rapidly. With the general elections 2014 getting closer by day, Indian political scenario is currently buzzing with deep anticipation. Now it is time for all the parties to sharpen up their best weapons and find out the weak points of the opponents. It is the time for them to flood the voters with barrage of promises. On the other hand common citizens of India are craving for a strong and decisive leader at the helm. The most important question facing the Indian politics now is, who will lead India after the current UPA regime is over? Will the leadership emerge from established parties like BJP led NDA, or will it spin some element of surprise at the last moment? The answer will be known in the days to come, but one thing for sure is that the Indian electorate is keeping a very close tab on the activities of the leaders and parties. Any sign of weakness or deviation from promises on the part of the leaders might cost them heavily and it might even turn the table for the parties as well. The results revealed in the current Monday Mood of India – 3 reflect that unforgiving and uncompromising mood of Indian voters. It also suggests that the Indian electorate would prefer to have a stable and strong government rather taking chance with any fleeting element of surprise. So according to the survey results, what was once a close fight between NDA and AAP has once again virtually become a bland and lopsided victory march for Narendra Modi and his coalition. The third edition of Monday Mood of India hints at sharply declining popularity of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the newbie in Indian politics. AAP led by Arvind Kejriwal rose like a meteor and keeping the essence of a meteor, is fast losing its relevance in the psyche of the voters. The waning support for Kejriwal’s AAP was sensed in the results of the last week’s Monday Mood - 2 itself. This week the gap is wide apart with Narendra Modi shining all the way. The results of Monday Mood of India -3 reveal clearly that the vox populi has chosen Narendra Modi as the undisputed and uncontested leader of the country. A mammoth 80% of Indian citizens have selected Narendra Modi as their next Prime Minister. It is a straight set win for Modi and his coalition as another strong 76% have opted to have BJP led NDA as the next government. The results do not give much scope to speculate as all the oppositions including the ruling UPA have become almost non-existent in the face of Modi storm. It seems that A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 27th January 2014 | 2
  3. 3. Executive Summary the present Chief Minister of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal has lost his golden touch. Just one month in power, a sense of negativity has already shrouded the shine of AAP. That Kejriwal is losing his credibility fast is evident from the fact that only 7% of the participants have chosen him as the next prime minister and that is 2% down from last week and 15% down from last to last. If he wants to retain his party’s relevance then he needs to act fast. Rahul Gandhi was never in picture and his abysmally bad performance continues as he loses yet another 2% vote compared to last week. Foreseegame.com is a unique portal of consumer engagement, which provides a platform for two way communication and engagement between the brand and the consumers through games of foresights. Microsec research is the research wing of Microsec Capital having experienced analysts across the sectors. We used the online feedback from the users of www.foreseegame.com. The users have been registered only on the basis of unique mobile numbers and hence, it provides authenticity and genuineness of the participants. The participation is being monitored by Google. About 36,000 participants have contributed from all parts of India; however the limitation of this sample is that it is from the group of people who are users of internet. The Take Away Points: 1. Talk about the upcoming general elections and it is Narendra Modi all the way. Indian electorates have voiced their choice loud and clear eliminating all scopes of doubt and speculation. This unanimity in choosing the Prime Minister suggests that the people of India favour a strong and accountable government that could take the country forward. Neither are they leaving much scope to the element of surprise. Going by this week’s report, it is Narendra Modi shining brightly whereas Arvind Kejriwal’s popularity is declining fast. Only 7% of the participants have chosen him as the next prime minister which is 2% down from last week and 15% down from last to last. Modi has won 80% of the total vote as he has been able to woo voters successfully by upholding his track record as the Gujarat CM and with his promise of replicating the same in India. Rahul Gandhi was never in picture and this time too his popularity has further decreased by another 2%, thus bringing the tally to a dismal 6%. A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 27th January 2014 | 3
  4. 4. Executive Summary Last week Mamata Banerjee threw a spin of surprise by gaining 15% vote and successfully jeopardized Kejriwal’s fortune. This week, however, she is back to square one with just 2% vote. All these minuses added to Modi’s plus ensuring his vote bank get the lion’s share. 2. The vote swing this week remains somewhat unchanged compared to last week. The BJP led NDA is continuing with its victory march with 76% of vote. Thus for NDA it is 18% increase compared to last week’s 58%. AAP has received just 13% vote and it is a 15% swing from AAP to NDA. Similarly, UPA has gone down by yet another 2% and other political parties too lost 1% of their vote to the NDA storm. 3. The state-wise break up is almost a replica of last week in terms of its essence as it shows that the people of India wants Narendra Modi as their future Prime Minister. BJP led NDA too is much ahead of all the other parties in almost all the states except Haryana. Arvind Kejriwal has successfully retained his domination over Haryana and most of AAP’s vote has come from that region. 4. Going by this report it can be said that Congress and its UPA coalition is going to suffer a major setback and BJP led NDA will emerge as the future government of the country after the General Elections 2014. Let us wait for the next Monday Mood result to know the further change / swing. A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 27th January 2014 | 4
  5. 5. The Comparison Zone The Next Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi is shining brightly whereas Arvind Kejriwal’s popularity is declining fast. Only 7% of the participants have chosen him as the next prime minister which is 2% down from last week and 15% down from last to last. Modi has won 80% of the total vote as he has been able to woo voters successfully by upholding his track record as the Gujarat CM and with his promise of replicating the same in India. Rahul Gandhi was never in picture and this time his popularity has further decreased by another 2%, thus bringing the tally to a dismal 6%. Mamata Banerjee has lost her last week’s gain to Modi and this week managed to get only 2% vote. The choice of Prime Minister suggests that the people of India want a strong and accountable government at the helm and not some element of surprise. Thus Modi wins hands down eliminating all scopes of speculation. Graph 1: Survey Results as on 27th January, 2014 1% 2% 2% Narendra Modi 2% Rahul Gandhi 7% Mamata Banerjee 6% Nitish Kumar Arvind Kejriwal Mulayam Singh Yadav 80% None of the above Graph 1: Survey Results as on 20th January, 2014 2% 2% 2% Narendra Modi 9% Rahul Gandhi Mamata Banerjee 15% Nitish Kumar 8% 62% Arvind Kejriwal Mulayam Singh Yadav None of the above A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 27th January 2014 | 5
  6. 6. The Share of Vote: NDA, UPA & AAP The vote swing this week remains somewhat unchanged compared to last week. The BJP led NDA is continuing with its victory march with 76% of vote. Thus for NDA it is 18% increase compared to last week’s 58%. AAP has received just 13% vote and it is a 15% swing from AAP to NDA. Similarly, UPA has gone down by yet another 2% and other political parties too lost 1% of their vote to the NDA storm. Graph 3: Survey Results as on 27th January, 2014 3% 13% BJP Led NDA 8% Congress Led UPA Aam Admi Party 76% Any other Graph 4: Survey Results as on 20th January, 2014 4% 10% Congress Led UPA BJP Led NDA 28% Aam Aadmi Party Any other 58% A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 27th January 2014 | 6
  7. 7. The Comparison Zone as on 27th January, 2014 The Next Prime Minister: State-wise choice State Andaman Nicobar Andhra Pradesh Arunanchal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Dadar & Nagar Haveli Daman & Diu Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu and Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Lakshwdeep Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland NCR Orissa Pondicherry Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal Narendra Modi (%) 68 77 46 76 88 85 85 79 75 79 36 74 99 76 80 69 80 78 69 79 86 100 69 80 48 100 84 79 92 79 89 79 92 83 Rahul Gandhi (%) Arvind Kejriwal (%) 5 8 1 5 4 7 0 3 12 5 1 14 0 6 9 16 10 15 9 14 0 0 19 5 11 0 2 5 8 5 3 4 3 6 24 8 51 15 2 4 10 11 5 7 61 6 0 9 5 3 0 3 10 0 0 0 6 10 12 0 7 6 0 6 3 7 3 5 Others (%) 3 7 2 5 6 5 6 8 8 9 2 6 0 9 7 12 10 4 12 7 14 0 6 6 29 0 7 9 0 10 5 9 2 6 A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 27th January 2014 | 7
  8. 8. The Comparison Zone as on 20th January, 2014 The Next Prime Minister: State-wise choice State Andaman Nicobar Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Daman & Diu Dadra & Nagar Haveli Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Lakshwadweep Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland NCR Orissa Pondicherry Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal Narendra Modi (%) Rahul Gandhi (%) Arvind Kejriwal (%) Others (%) 44 67 38 66 2 10 2 7 20 11 40 15 34 13 21 12 78 5 6 57 44 53 50 69 33 62 97 66 71 40 57 65 62 64 38 75 57 66 46 9 47 73 56 75 70 74 71 61 7 1 0 15 9 1 10 0 8 13 21 0 15 10 18 0 25 21 4 11 0 6 7 19 8 8 5 2 9 25 41 29 26 13 65 18 2 14 9 17 14 12 14 0 13 0 7 9 14 0 34 9 13 7 15 12 16 6 11 11 13 18 10 9 1 10 0 12 7 22 29 8 14 18 50 0 14 21 28 91 13 11 13 10 8 9 11 24 A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 27th January 2014 | 8
  9. 9. The Comparison Zone as on 27th January, 2014 Vote for the Party: State-wise choice State Andaman Nicobar Andhra Pradesh Arunanchal Pradesh Assam Bihar Chhattisgarh Dadar & Nagar Haveli Daman & Diu Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu and Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Lakshwdeep Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland NCR Orissa Pondicherry Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttarakhand West Bengal BJP Led NDA (%) Congress Led UPA (%) AAP (%) Others (%) 68 73 5 11 27 13 0 3 46 75 90 84 3 6 4 10 51 18 5 5 0 2 1 1 85 87 85 78 37 0 5 8 10 2 14 8 6 10 60 1 0 2 2 1 77 13 6 3 99 76 65 71 100 74 64 57 100 100 79 74 49 83 38 77 92 73 81 73 89 79 1 9 12 12 0 18 12 21 0 0 21 5 18 17 3 7 0 10 6 7 4 8 0 12 21 16 0 7 20 21 0 0 0 18 19 0 56 13 8 13 9 15 7 10 0 3 3 1 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 3 14 0 3 3 0 4 3 5 0 3 A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 27th January 2014 | 9
  10. 10. The Comparison Zone as on 20th January, 2014 Vote for the Party: State-wise choice State BJP Led NDA (%) 42 Andaman Nicobar 57 Andhra Pradesh 39 Arunachal Pradesh 61 Assam 80 Bihar 56 Chhattisgarh Dadra & Nagar 45 Haveli 59 Daman & Diu 51 Goa 68 Gujarat 25 Haryana 49 Himachal Pradesh 93 Jammu & Kashmir 58 Jharkhand 56 Karnataka 37 Kerala 67 Lakshwadweep 62 Madhya Pradesh 57 Maharashtra 70 Manipur 63 Meghalaya 100 Mizoram 58 Nagaland 54 NCR 45 Orissa 7 Pondicherry 47 Punjab 72 Rajasthan 50 Sikkim 62 Tamil Nadu 48 Tripura 70 Uttar Pradesh 69 Uttarakhand 57 West Bengal Congress Led UPA Others (%) AAP (%) (%) 3 11 2 8 4 7 54 24 58 29 15 36 1 9 0 2 1 1 1 51 3 0 12 12 3 19 1 11 15 14 0 14 12 20 0 0 17 5 18 0 6 10 7 9 8 6 2 10 41 36 17 72 26 6 27 27 46 33 22 25 10 25 0 25 40 24 93 43 14 43 23 40 20 29 28 0 2 4 1 6 0 4 2 3 0 2 6 0 13 0 0 2 13 0 4 4 0 5 4 4 0 5 A report by foreseegame.com & Microsec Research 27th January 2014 | 10

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