4. P. 4
Situation in Belgium
• On 10 March the governement advised to cancel indoor
events (<1.000 people) for the month of March.
• As from Saterday 14 March the decission was made to
close all schools and horeca and to cancel all public
gatherings (sports, cultural, festive…). There was no further
requirement to stay home.
• On 18 March the Belgian went in lockdown. Every non-
essential store had to close, gatherings of all kinds were
banned, non-essential travels were prohibited… until at
least 5 April.
• The decission was made to extend the measures until at
least 19 April.
• On Wednesday 15 April the governement decided to extend
the measures once more until 3 May.
Governement decisions
5. P. 5
Impact on trips
Key figures
Sources: Belga / De Lijn / MIVB / TEC / NMBS
90% of
passenger
flights cancelled
De Lijn: -92% travelers /
10-15% less vehicles
MIVB: -75% travelers /
33% less vehicles
TEC: 10% less vehicles
10% occupation in trains
No more departures after
8pm
<50% less car
traffic
Restriction on
trips with more
than 2 persons
6. P. 6
Footfall decrease
Footfall is at the heart of (D)OOH. Over the years we spend up
to 25% more of our time outside of our homes. The recent
events however forces everyone to stay inside for their own
good.
On 29 March Google shared their data on the exact impact this
had on our mobility. The numbers do not lie: compared to
baseline (1 month basis) there has been a significant drop in all
kind of trips and in all regions.
Biggest loss is of course for the recreation and hospitality
undustry, being the first ones that had to close their doors to the
public, we see a drop of 84% compared to baseline on a
national level.
The category grocery and pharmacies is the less impacted as
they remain open to public yet with restrictions. An uplift has
occured at the beginning of the lockdown in Belgium, at the
beginning of phase 2 there’s a decrease as the new measures
restrict trips and encourage to go to the store alone.
Full report can be found here
Source: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report / Posterscope
Recreation and
hospitality industry
Grocery & pharmacie
7. P. 7
Respons from advertisers
Some sectors suffer more than others. As currently almost all
planes are cancelled and everyone is encouraged to stay
home, travel agencies stopped advertising for the moment.
Movie theaters are closed so advertising the new blockbuster
has been put on hold for now… These are obvious ones, but
almost every advertiser reconsidered its media spends and
strategy during this crisis leading to an enormous amount of
cancellation or postpones in the whole media sector. In Out of
home, known for its hard cancellation policy, campaigns were
rescheduled without charge.
Experts say it will take a while before the campaigns will come
back, as they will need to be reconsidered or completely
rebuild. Some brands are already rethinking their
communication, not giving in to the current cancellation trend,
by adapting the message to the COVID 19 lockdown situation.
Telling everyone to stay home, thanking healthcare workers,
stressing the importance of social distancing and respect,
helping out the hospitality industry… These brands have
sensed the mood of their stakeholders and are communicating
according to it but have also understood the importance
keeping the advertising up even in harder times.
Source: UBA / De Tijd
9. P. 9
IPA Study -Advertising in a downturn
IPA study revealed that cutting advertising spend in a downturn can
1) Impact Brand Health
2) Impact Business Performance
Key Findings:
• Cutting budget will only help defend profits in the very short-term
• Ultimately the brand will emerge from the downturn weaker & less profitable
• Better to maintain Share of Voice (SOV) at or above Share of Market (SOM) as the longer-
term improvement in profitability is likely to greatly outweigh the short-term reduction
• If other brands are cutting budgets the longer-term benefit of maintaining SOV at or above
SOM will be even greater
10. P. 10
Impact on business performance – The time lag effect
Need to consider the long-
term payback of advertising
Budget cuts lead to longer
sales recovery periods
Benefits of promotional
activity will be short-lived
• Long-term payback from advertising
can be 4x greater than the short term
• After a budget cut, the long-term
business harm will be considerable
(although not noticed at 1st)
Cashflow for companies, D2D Modelling
• Modelling demonstrates that a 1 year
budget cut can lead to lost profitability
over time
• It can take up to 5 years to fully recover
from an annual cut in marketing spend
D2D Modelling
• The diversion of communications
expenditure into price promotions is
a common response to a downturn
• Widespread promotional activity means
consumers expect “incentives” so they
lose their efficiency generating incremental
sales … resulting in a loss of profitability
Source: D2D
Budget
saved
Profit
Lost
Bottom
Line Impact
Time to
recover
Zero budget
(Year 1)
£1.8m £3.5m £1.7m 5 years
Half budget
(Year 1)
£0.9m £1.7m £0.8m 3 years
Budget maintained all years
Zero budget (year 1)
Half budget (year 1)
Time
Sales
Sales
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
tShort Term
Long Term
Promotional activity
(Incentivise spend)
Promotional efficiency
(Incentive efficiency)
Spend/efficiency
Time
US Automative Example, D2D
11. P. 11
Impact on business performance – Focus on the long-term
When SOV exceeds SOM
brands can expect to see
gains in market share
Severe budget cuts
generate short-term gains
but long-term losses
Maintaining budget or
moderate cuts are far more
profitable long-term
• Estimated “rule of thumb” that for every
10 points that SOV exceeds SOM
then a brand can expect to
gain one point of market share per annum
• Use this rule of thumb as forecasting tool
for expenditure strategies in a recession
IPA DataMINE (127 cases)
• As marketing has a lagged effect on sales,
in the 1st year of a budget cut operating
profit can have a short term improvement
• However, operating profit is severely
affected in subsequent years
IPAdataMINE
• Maintaining budgets or moderate cuts
(e.g. 20%) may reduce operating profit in
year 1, but in the long term will generate
higher operating profit overall
Source: IPA Datamine 880 Case Studies Peter Field
Year 2007 2008 2009 2010
Brand X
Sales
£317m £314m £282m £269m
Marketing
Spend
£7.9m £0m £0m £7.9m
Total
Costs
£278m £270m £251m £253m
Operating
Profit
£39m £44m £31m £16m
Market share growth vs “excess” of share of voice
SOV - SOM
Market share gain
(% points)
Year
Operating Profit
2007 2008 2009 2010 08-10
Severe marketing
budget cut (-100%
in 2008 / 2009)
£39m £44m £31m £16m £91m
Moderate marketing
budget cut (-20%
in 2008 / 2009)
£39m £38m £33m £32m £103m
Maintain marketing
spend (-0% in 2008
/ 2009)
£38m £36m £34m £38m £108m
IPAdataMINE
12. P. 12
Impact on brand health with advertising budget cuts
P. 12
Share of voice
needs to be maintained
2 key brand metrics
affected by budget cuts
Word-of-mouth accentuates
the effects of budget cuts
Source: Millward Brown
• Strong relationship between share of
voice and share of market
• Brands that cut their ad budget relative
to competitors are at greater risk of
share loss
354 brands grouped on basis of relative ad spend
• Brand usage and brand image both suffer
when brands “went dark” i.e. cease to
spend on communications for 6 months +
• 60% of brands “going dark” decline on at
least one key brand metric
85+ brands with no TV spend for 6+ months
• A brand judged to be on the way down,
because it has fallen silent, will very
rapidly see this manifested in word-of-
mouth, which will accelerate the
perception of failure
%LosingShare
Media Pressure
(Share of voice – Share of Market)
0% 30%-30%
0%
50%
100%
R2 = 0.74
Increase
Decrease
NET change
Brand Usage Brand Image
+11
-24
+22
-28
-13
-6
13. P. 13
Opportunities from continued advertising during a downturn
Source: Forbes
Project Image of Corporate Stability
Re-Position Brand
when competitors cut back on spend
Good Value Media
as cost of advertising may drop
Improved SOV amongst competitors will
increase SOM in both the short & long-term
14. P. 14
Advertising during a downturn has helped many brands over time
Source: Forbes
Kellogg’s Rice Krispies launched in
the 1920s great depression
Pizza Hut & Taco Bell advertising in
1991 recession stole McDonald’s share
Amazon’s continued innovation in the
2009 recession increased sales
• Post was category leader but cut advertising budget
significantly, whilst rival Kellogg’s doubled its advertising
spend and introduced a new cereal called Rice Krispies,
featuring “Snap,” “Crackle” and “Pop.”
• Kellogg’s profits grew by 30% and became the category
leader, a position it has maintained for decades.
• In the 1990-1991 recession Pizza Hut and Taco Bell took
advantage of McDonald’s decision to drop its advertising
and promotion budget.
• Pizza Hut increased sales by 61%, Taco Bell sales grew
by 40% and McDonald’s sales declined by 28%.
• Amazon sales grew by 28% during the 2009 recession
as it continued to innovate with new products. Most
notably with the new Kindle products which helped to
grow market share.
• In the minds of consumers, Amazon cemented its
reputation as a provider of quality, low-cost products as it
introduced lower cost alternatives consumers needed.
16. P. 16
OOH during a lockdown
Less traffic = less impact?
We cannot deny that the main driver for the success of an OOH campain is the
mass being out of their houses. Once everyone is asked to stay inside, what good
can come out of an OOH campaign?
The mass might be missing, the impact remains. Several brands have adapted
their message during this crisis to encourage (and even force) people to stay safe
and thus stay home.
Sales house have also decided to share the same message and be united during
these exceptional times. The blue posters encouraging everyone to #stayhome
and flatten the curve cover the whole country since mid-March.
Following slides are a deepdive into some campaigns that have successfully
adapted their messaging comprehending 100% the one of OOH’s key elements for
a succesfull campaign: the right message at the right time and at the right place.
17. P. 17
OOH during a lockdown
Examples worldwide
Respect social distancing,
that’s the message Coca-Cola
is giving using a large
billboard format in Times
Square, a major commercial
intersection in Midtown
Manhattan in New York City.
The few people walking
arount will notice that the
name has received more
spaces as to create some
distance as well within the
message.
Two students of the Miami
Ad School have created an
OOH campaign to
encourage (force) people to
stay at home. To do so,
they’ve created some
posters as if it were a Netflix
campaign containing some
spoilers of some of Netflix’s
most popular shows.
The campaign quickly got
viral and even got a respons
from Netflix.
18. P. 18
OOH during a lockdown
Examples Belgium
ABInbev decided not to
advertise as planned but
instead gave away their
booked locations to the
governement so they can
provide the most appropriate
message during these difficult
times.
The message is displayed at
Dansaert in Brussels and at
the Frankrijklei in Antwerp
until end of april.
Douwe Egberts decided to
adapt their message to the
currect situation.
The campaign on the digital
screens of Carrefour
(JCDecaux) showed
different simplistic messages
that implied that grocery
shopping should be done
with respect.
19. P. 19
OOH during a lockdown
Examples sales houses
The OOH is hit hard by the currect
situation. We’ve seen the impact on
traffic of all kinds due to travel
restrictions, the prohibition of public
gathering, of indoor social activities…
Advertisers have reconsidered their
OOH spending because of the
reduced traffic.
But that does not mean the OOH sales
houses are doing nothing. Across the
world messages of support and thank
you’s are displayed on the most
impactfull inventory.
They help spreading a positive but
also helpfull messages in times were
we need it the most.
In Belgium the same trend is seen. As of
week 13, Clear Channel and JCDecaux
have decided to dedicated the majority of
their inventory to the good cause of
spreading the right messages:
Stay home, flatten the curve, stay safe.
This will be maintained as long as
needed to make sure we can go back to
normal in the near future and enjoy the
wonderfull world of out of home as we
know it.
21. P. 21
After lockdown
The end of an era
The future is yet unclear. When the lockdown will come to an
end and how the measures will be lifted are still unknown
factors. What we know are the strenghts of an OOH campaign
and that the missing key element will return, meaning we’ll be
back outside and we’ll be able to enjoy it once again.
If we do want to make some assumptions on how life will be
after the lockdown we could look at how China is behaving.
Recently the security measures have been lifted and even
Wuhan, where it all started, is set free again. How do the
people there react?
By rediscovering the country, by going back to work, by doing
some offline shopping and by staying in the country… by giving
OOH it’s audience and so it’s strenghts back.
We know about the importance of keeping the communication
up if possible even in difficult times – so how can OOH help?
Source: CNN / Profacts
A recent study showed that
only 21% of the Belgians is
planning on going on vacation
this year.
We do not know what the
weather will be in the summer,
but we know OOH budgets to
be slightly more attractive
during this period
When the mass is back out in
the streets: OOH knows not
only how to reach them but
also knows where and when.
22. P. 22 Source: IPA TouchPoints 2019 – Weekly reach and mean hours/day of commercial media channels
#IPATouchPoints
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Commercial BVoD
Commercial Live Radio
Magazine (Print)
Magazine (Online)
Commercial Podcasts
Cinema
Commercial Streamed Music
Commercial RoD / Radio Podcasts
Commercial Online News
Other Online Video
Newspaper (Print)
Newspaper (Online)
Functional Internet
Social Media
Commercial Live /
Recorded TV
Mail
OOH
%WeeklyReachAllAdults
Mean hours / day
OOH generates broadcast reach, vital in a recession
23. P. 23
Reach is the key driver of business effects
Brand awareness over the short and long termOOH’s high reach generates +20% business effectiveness
“OOH ALSO AMPLIFIES OTHER MEDIA
Press (+7%), Radio (+17%), TV (+17%),
Social (+20%), Search (+54%)
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
25 %
30 %
£ 0
£ 50,000
£ 100,000
£ 150,000
£ 200,000
£ 250,000
£ 300,000
£ 350,000
31-Dec-2018
7-Jan-2019
14-Jan-2019
21-Jan-2019
28-Jan-2019
4-Feb-2019
11-Feb-2019
18-Feb-2019
25-Feb-2019
4-Mar-2019
11-Mar-2019
18-Mar-2019
25-Mar-2019
1-Apr-2019
8-Apr-2019
15-Apr-2019
22-Apr-2019
29-Apr-2019
6-May-2019
13-May-2019
20-May-2019
27-May-2019
3-Jun-2019
10-Jun-2019
17-Jun-2019
24-Jun-2019
1-Jul-2019
8-Jul-2019
15-Jul-2019
%AdAwareness
Budget
Week Commencing
Traditional 2 week burst Lighter For Longer
Heavy burst comms awareness Light weight comms awareness
Weekly Reach
Source: IPA Marketing Effectiveness in the Digital Era & IPA OOH Database Analysis 2017
Source: Dentsu Aegis Channel Planner
OOH can be planned, i.e. lighter weights for longer, to maximise OOH advertising awareness and influence ROI
Lighter weights for longer can not only make OOH more effective, but also provides more weeks to amplify other media
24. P. 24
OOH boosts both short-term sales and branding
Important as largest effects of recessionary advertising are in the long-term
Source: IPA OOH Database Analysis 2017
OOH Power Users: OOH 15% of Media Budget (55 cases) vs Non OOH (92 cases)
Campaigns with a High OOH budget
BOOST BRAND VALUES / METRICS
Sales Activation Effects
+ 47%
Long Term Business Effects
+15% Customer Acquisition
+26% Profit
+30% Market Share
MORE EFFECTIVE
+41% Brand Esteem
+32% Fame
25. P. 25
Brand Trust is especially important in a recession
COMPETENCE
EMOTION
• Financial Performance
• Product Concerns
• Functionality
• Innovation
• Reliability
• Quality
• Customer Concerns
• Societal Concerns
• Heritage
• Sincerity
• Ethics
• Care
In a recession, consumers focus on the 2 key drivers on brand trust
2019 Edelman Trust Barometer Special Report: In Brands We Trust?
Brands and Consumer Trust summary report
1) Core Product Benefits 2) Family / Community Values
26. P. 26
OOH builds brand trust
1/2
Feel as OOH is in the public
space / familiar environment
makes it more trustworthy
Over
OOH is in a familiar community
and public domain
OOH delivers relevant messages, proven
to be more effective & trustworthy
OOH is a high frequency channel on a
large canvas driving brand fame & trust
Source: OCS, Sample size: 2,897 GB Based Consumers (4 statements on familiar environment / public domain)
Source: Moments of Truth, 2020 – Combined Neuroscience, Ad Recall and Sales Effect
+17%
Increase in effectiveness
from contextually
relevant messages
Increase in honest /
transparent metric amongst
consumers with multiple
OOH exposures
Source: On Device Research Studies Average Equity Score for 3 Broadband / Energy Provider Campaigns
+8%
27. P. 27
OOH advertising is trusted
Source: OCS Belgium 2.045 respondents / Nielsen
110affinity index / adults
More likely to trust
brands that are
advertised in (D)OOH
144affinity index / students
108affinity index / actives
Panels blend seamlessly into the environment. They’re
strategically placed to be non-instrusive yet with a high
capability of engaging with customers when they are
open to brand interaction.
About 56% of the population trusts messages
displayed on billboards and other OOH formats. 58% of
the customers who have seen the OOH ad are likely to
take action.
Advertisers dedicating budget in OOH saw an increase
of more than 20% in brand trust.
28. P. 28
“Innovative”
as a trust driver
73%
Innovative Audience - Very Important
Now thinking about brands and companies in particular ...
Which of the following characteristics are most important in helping you trust them?
Source: OCS
The OOH audience is often more receptive to trust drivers
Somewhat Important
Notice DOOH in National Rail Stations
Very Important
51% 22%
Index 108
75%agree
Notice ad in restaurant/bars
Index 106
69%Agree
Notice ad at supermarket
Index 152
29%strongly agree
Notice DOOH in street
Index 105
72%Strongly agree
Notice (D)OOH Billboard
Index 146
41%Strongly agree
29. 01
02
03
04
Recessions provide opportunities and advertising
should focus on core brand values and consumer
Brands advertising in a downturn benefit in both
the short term but especially the long-run
Numerous reports / case studies prove that brands should
continue to advertise in a recession
OOH’s broadcast reach and key attributes demonstrate it is
perfectly suited to help brands through a recession
Summary
