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‘BUNKERING’ SOCIAL & ECONOMIC CHANGE
Political Economy of Nigeria’s Reform
‘Bunkering’ is a local practice in Nigeria employed to steal oil from established pipelines by
tapping it along its course in Niger delta. Chatham House estimates that about 10% of
Nigeria’s annual oil production is lost to bunkering.
The information here is based on Nigeria The Political Economy of Reform: Strengthening the
incentives for economic growth by Pat Utomi, Alex Duncan and Gareth Williams, The Policy
Practice, UK
170 Million people
50% Urban
7.2% growth (2012)
Giant of Africa
Capital: Abuja ; Largest City: Lagos

Former British colony
Independence – 1960
Oil discovered – 1956
Federal structure
36 States
746 LGAs
Nigeria today

- civil war for oil revenues
- environmental degradation by
- oil industry
- political assertion by ethnic
groups

- completely oil dependent (with no
refining capacity)
- all other sectors of economy in
crisis – fall out effects like piracy &
financial fraud
Resource curse?
Indonesia vs Nigera – both strike oil around the same time but
stand wide apart today – Policy choices & Institutional performance
Nigeria’s dependence on trade (oil?)
Nigera vs India – on Trade as a % of GDP
REFORMS

Analyze factors
that drove reform

How to sustain
these reforms and
improve

1. Greater fiscal discipline and transparency
FRA (2007); NEITI (2007)
2. Privatization
3. Lower fuel subsidies
4. Banking consolidation
5. Anticorruption
EFCC; ICP Commissions
1.
2.
3.
4.

Obasanjo’s election
7 years of continuous growth
High oil prices
Business interests of political elite – dismantled
public enterprises & patronage networks
5. External factors – OECD, Multilateral agencies
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Accelerated speed in passing legislations
Strengthening accountability systems
Generating wider benefits from reforms
Extending reforms from Fed to State & LGA
Strengthening technical capabilities
Political Economy Context
Ethnic groups – Oil dominated industry – Nollywood 2nd largest
employer
Akintunde Akinleye/REUTERS

A man carries refined oil in buckets at an illegal oil refinery site near river Nun in Nigeria's oil
state of Bayelsa.
Features of Nigerian Political Economy

INCENTIVES
WEAK STATE – SOCIETY
RELATIONSHIP
VALUE SYSTEM
EASY EXIT OPTIONS
(for businesses & elites)
PERSONALIZED POLICY PROCESS

Striking feature –
“recursive” nature of Nigeria’s political economy
Discussion

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On Political Economy of Nigeria

  • 1. Image: VOA News ‘BUNKERING’ SOCIAL & ECONOMIC CHANGE Political Economy of Nigeria’s Reform
  • 2. ‘Bunkering’ is a local practice in Nigeria employed to steal oil from established pipelines by tapping it along its course in Niger delta. Chatham House estimates that about 10% of Nigeria’s annual oil production is lost to bunkering. The information here is based on Nigeria The Political Economy of Reform: Strengthening the incentives for economic growth by Pat Utomi, Alex Duncan and Gareth Williams, The Policy Practice, UK
  • 3.
  • 4. 170 Million people 50% Urban 7.2% growth (2012)
  • 5. Giant of Africa Capital: Abuja ; Largest City: Lagos Former British colony Independence – 1960 Oil discovered – 1956 Federal structure 36 States 746 LGAs
  • 6. Nigeria today - civil war for oil revenues - environmental degradation by - oil industry - political assertion by ethnic groups - completely oil dependent (with no refining capacity) - all other sectors of economy in crisis – fall out effects like piracy & financial fraud
  • 7. Resource curse? Indonesia vs Nigera – both strike oil around the same time but stand wide apart today – Policy choices & Institutional performance
  • 8. Nigeria’s dependence on trade (oil?) Nigera vs India – on Trade as a % of GDP
  • 9. REFORMS Analyze factors that drove reform How to sustain these reforms and improve 1. Greater fiscal discipline and transparency FRA (2007); NEITI (2007) 2. Privatization 3. Lower fuel subsidies 4. Banking consolidation 5. Anticorruption EFCC; ICP Commissions 1. 2. 3. 4. Obasanjo’s election 7 years of continuous growth High oil prices Business interests of political elite – dismantled public enterprises & patronage networks 5. External factors – OECD, Multilateral agencies 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Accelerated speed in passing legislations Strengthening accountability systems Generating wider benefits from reforms Extending reforms from Fed to State & LGA Strengthening technical capabilities
  • 10. Political Economy Context Ethnic groups – Oil dominated industry – Nollywood 2nd largest employer
  • 11. Akintunde Akinleye/REUTERS A man carries refined oil in buckets at an illegal oil refinery site near river Nun in Nigeria's oil state of Bayelsa.
  • 12. Features of Nigerian Political Economy INCENTIVES WEAK STATE – SOCIETY RELATIONSHIP VALUE SYSTEM EASY EXIT OPTIONS (for businesses & elites) PERSONALIZED POLICY PROCESS Striking feature – “recursive” nature of Nigeria’s political economy