This is a comprehensive presentation on the state of the oil markets that I had done.a few years ago. While 2009 might sound rusty, it is important to understand that trends in commodities dont change ona dime especially oil markets. This ppt clearly shows that oil demand supply gap is growing at 5% or 4 mn bpd every year. Put otherwise we would have to discover 1 Saudi Arabia of oil every alternate year just to maintain the gap at where it is. It is like running in a running train.
Oil prices even now are quite cheap and should be priced at the marginal cost of the next most expensive barrel of oil. Without Iran tensions oil shoul dprobably be $200 in about a year
this is presentation is about crude oil, I have made it for you guys, please like and share, I hope you learn something new, and I hope you guys enjoy it, thank you for watching.
this is presentation is about crude oil, I have made it for you guys, please like and share, I hope you learn something new, and I hope you guys enjoy it, thank you for watching.
The environmental impact of paper is significant, which has led to changes in industry and behavior at both business and personal levels. With the use of modern technology such as the printing press and the highly mechanized harvesting of wood, disposable paper has become a cheap commodity. This has led to a high level of consumption and waste. With the rise in environmental awareness due to the lobbying by environmental organizations and with increased government regulation there is now a trend towards sustainability in the pulp and paper industry.
Burger King represents a unique opportunity to own equity of the second largest QSR branded franchise in the world's fastest going market India.
Learn how Burger King is ramping up to emerge as the fastest-growing food chain. given its fiery pace, global brand, and strong execution we believe that it presents an opportunity for multi-bagger value creation.
In this webinar, we explore how any business should be analyzed to evaluate its true value. And this is the exact process taught in the Mastercourse in Equity Research and Valuation https://wa.me/message/6ALEXA634QLGK1
For the webinar replay https://youtu.be/_WX7t5fRdrM
The Mastercourse is conducted bu Vinit Bolinjkar who has 29 years of experience investing and trading
This presentation was done by Yash Bhansali & Varun Bisen both students of the School of Market Studies' Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation. It is a realtime demonstration of the skills that you will acquire once you finish the course.
The Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation has enabled both Yash and Varun to prepare and present a financial model on Varun Beverages Ltd with forecasting and calculation of intrinsic value using DCF Valuation methodology absolutely independently.
Normally a research analyst takes two years to "officially" be termed as a sector specialist. However, under the able guidance of Vinit Bolinjkar who has 28 years of market experience your process of learning the ropes of equity research, financial modeling, and forecasting goes much faster.
In fact, he virtually guarantees that after 4 months of the internship (following the two months of online learning) you will be able t easily forecast 80% of the market and be as good as any analyst on Dalal Street with two years of work experience.
This presentation was done by Stuti Dang & Kirti Gumber both students of the School of Market Studies' Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation.
The Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation has enabled both Stuti and Kirti to prepare and present a financial model on Voltas Ltd with forecasting and calculation of intrinsic value using DCF Valuation methodology absolutely independently.
Normally a research analyst takes two years to "officially" be termed as a sector specialist. However, under the able guidance of Vinit Bolinjkar who has 28 years of market experience your process of learning the ropes of equity research, financial modeling, and forecasting goes much faster.
In fact, he virtually guarantees that after 4 months of the internship (following the two months of online learning) you will be able t easily forecast 80% of the market and be as good as any analyst on Dalal Street with two years of work experience.
So what are you waiting for? JOIN NOW https://wa.me/919730836363
This is the outcome of what a student learns in the Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation that is organized by the School of Market Studies.
After two months of intense training, we have a 4-month internship. During the first month of internship Varsha Bezzam, a student made this absolutely detailed presentation on HUL.
This include
leadership analysis,
industry study
MOATS for HUL
Business outlook & strategy
Financial modeling
Equity Valuation using price earning method and DCF valuation
Peer comparison
Get LinkedIn₹ : LinkedIn Mastery for Job Search, Lead Gen & Sales, and Personal Branding online course is set to be launched on June 8.
Helping you master LinkedIn for your job search, personal branding & zero cost leads 4 B2B sales
Get Linkedin Podcast: Srinivasan Iyengar, COO Nippon Life on using LinkedIn for Job Search, Sales & Personal Branding https://bit.ly/3cn1e2a
#CoronaVirus update:
#AskVinit
The only solution for preventing its spread is ISOLATION.
Work from home should be encouraged.
All public places of congregation for social & cultural activities must be stopped
Infected areas must be locked down
Government & corporate leaders should act decisively to promote best practices for the same
For every death, there are potential 800 people infected.
The fatality is higher than that of H1N1, SARS & MERS
We should adopt the Taiwan model which despite being so close to China is not impacted.
The environmental impact of paper is significant, which has led to changes in industry and behavior at both business and personal levels. With the use of modern technology such as the printing press and the highly mechanized harvesting of wood, disposable paper has become a cheap commodity. This has led to a high level of consumption and waste. With the rise in environmental awareness due to the lobbying by environmental organizations and with increased government regulation there is now a trend towards sustainability in the pulp and paper industry.
Burger King represents a unique opportunity to own equity of the second largest QSR branded franchise in the world's fastest going market India.
Learn how Burger King is ramping up to emerge as the fastest-growing food chain. given its fiery pace, global brand, and strong execution we believe that it presents an opportunity for multi-bagger value creation.
In this webinar, we explore how any business should be analyzed to evaluate its true value. And this is the exact process taught in the Mastercourse in Equity Research and Valuation https://wa.me/message/6ALEXA634QLGK1
For the webinar replay https://youtu.be/_WX7t5fRdrM
The Mastercourse is conducted bu Vinit Bolinjkar who has 29 years of experience investing and trading
This presentation was done by Yash Bhansali & Varun Bisen both students of the School of Market Studies' Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation. It is a realtime demonstration of the skills that you will acquire once you finish the course.
The Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation has enabled both Yash and Varun to prepare and present a financial model on Varun Beverages Ltd with forecasting and calculation of intrinsic value using DCF Valuation methodology absolutely independently.
Normally a research analyst takes two years to "officially" be termed as a sector specialist. However, under the able guidance of Vinit Bolinjkar who has 28 years of market experience your process of learning the ropes of equity research, financial modeling, and forecasting goes much faster.
In fact, he virtually guarantees that after 4 months of the internship (following the two months of online learning) you will be able t easily forecast 80% of the market and be as good as any analyst on Dalal Street with two years of work experience.
This presentation was done by Stuti Dang & Kirti Gumber both students of the School of Market Studies' Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation.
The Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation has enabled both Stuti and Kirti to prepare and present a financial model on Voltas Ltd with forecasting and calculation of intrinsic value using DCF Valuation methodology absolutely independently.
Normally a research analyst takes two years to "officially" be termed as a sector specialist. However, under the able guidance of Vinit Bolinjkar who has 28 years of market experience your process of learning the ropes of equity research, financial modeling, and forecasting goes much faster.
In fact, he virtually guarantees that after 4 months of the internship (following the two months of online learning) you will be able t easily forecast 80% of the market and be as good as any analyst on Dalal Street with two years of work experience.
So what are you waiting for? JOIN NOW https://wa.me/919730836363
This is the outcome of what a student learns in the Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation that is organized by the School of Market Studies.
After two months of intense training, we have a 4-month internship. During the first month of internship Varsha Bezzam, a student made this absolutely detailed presentation on HUL.
This include
leadership analysis,
industry study
MOATS for HUL
Business outlook & strategy
Financial modeling
Equity Valuation using price earning method and DCF valuation
Peer comparison
Get LinkedIn₹ : LinkedIn Mastery for Job Search, Lead Gen & Sales, and Personal Branding online course is set to be launched on June 8.
Helping you master LinkedIn for your job search, personal branding & zero cost leads 4 B2B sales
Get Linkedin Podcast: Srinivasan Iyengar, COO Nippon Life on using LinkedIn for Job Search, Sales & Personal Branding https://bit.ly/3cn1e2a
#CoronaVirus update:
#AskVinit
The only solution for preventing its spread is ISOLATION.
Work from home should be encouraged.
All public places of congregation for social & cultural activities must be stopped
Infected areas must be locked down
Government & corporate leaders should act decisively to promote best practices for the same
For every death, there are potential 800 people infected.
The fatality is higher than that of H1N1, SARS & MERS
We should adopt the Taiwan model which despite being so close to China is not impacted.
The concept of economic moats was first made popular by Warren Buffett. In actuality, a moat is a water body around a wonderful castle that helps prevent being raided by enemies. The attractiveness of the castle would have lured enemies to attack. In a similar way, the superior returns of a business venture would invariably attract competition.
To protect your business you would have to build significant competitive advantages that would help secure it.
Branding
Superior product offering
Great distribution
Size of operation
Scalability
Management quality
Technology adoption
IPR / patents / copyrights
are some of the factors which help to build a moat. And several of these together help to broaden and deepen the moat.
Businesses without moats are waiting to get raided. And we must watch the economic moats with a hawks eye to ensure that they are not being eroded. Especially in today’s times, when disruptive forces erode competitive advantages, we must ensure that it is enduring.
However, it is not easy to understand whether the moat is eroding or not. Cause the effect of no moat or an eroding moat will show up much later in the deteriorating financial performance of the business. Hence the time to engage in a “moat checkup and review” is when the business is at its peak.
Quick & easy system for finding stocks with multibagger potential
If you were asked to find a multibagger from the listed universe of stocks you would obviously get bogged down. The sheer effort of having to go through each of the 5000 stocks and deciding on its multibagger potential would be, to put it mildly, overwhelming! And I guarantee that you would reach nowhere!
Yet there has to be a better way of doing this. So why not invert the whole process and de-select stocks that that do meet the requirements of being investment grade. What you are left with is purely stocks that you would invest in. Next, we apply the proprietary tools to understand whether a stock can be a multibagger. At India Investors Club we refer to this process as the Criteria of Elimination in Stock Picking
Please find attached, the Initiating Coverage Report on OCL India Ltd.
OCL India Ltd (OCL) is well poised to benefit from the focused emphasis of the newly elected government on infrastructural development in East India. In line with this emphasis, OCLs timing of hiking cement grinding capacity to 6.7 MTPA in March 2014 could not have been better. With the expanded capacity, we expect OCL to report healthy revenue 2 year CAGR of 26% to Rs.3067 crore and PAT growth of 65% to Rs.292 crore by FY16E.
We initiate coverage on OCL as a BUY with a Price Objective of Rs.536 representing a potential upside of ~91% over a period of 18 months. At the CMP of Rs.280, the stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.7x FY16E and at an EV/Tonne of cement sold in FY16 of $60 ($42 EV/Tonne of capacity). The replacement cost currently is in the range of US$120-140 per tonne.
At the CMP of Rs 33, the stock is trading at an Adj P/BV of 1.3x and 1.1x for FY15E and FY16E, respectively. With the new government stepping-up reforms and making efforts to remove the bottlenecks in the economy, we expect the economic growth to pick up going forward. Consequently, we expect the strong growth momentum seen in SIB over past few years to continue. We expect advances and deposits to grow at a CAGR of ~19% each over the forecasted period of FY14-16E.
With business further expected to grow at CAGR of 19.5% over FY14-16E; NIMs remaining stable at ~3.0% and cost-to-income ratio improving to ~45% (currently ~50%), we expect a robust PAT growth of 22.6% CAGR over FY14-16E to Rs 763 crore.
Asset quality of SIB has improved in FY14 with GNPA and Net NPA standing at 1.2% and 0.8% in FY14 against 1.4% and 0.8% in FY13, respectively (which compares favourably with peers).
On the capital adequacy front, SIB is comfortably placed to support the future business needs of the bank over the period FY14-16E. The management has stated that it does not require any Tier-I capital funding during the current year. However, it plans to raise Tier-II capital of Rs 200 crore in FY15 to fund future growth.
In comparison to the less than ordinary and unimaginative budgetary proposals of yester years, Modi’s maiden budget comes as a welcome change from the norm. The proposals and reforms suggested in the Union Budget 2014-15 are ground breaking, specific with a good measure of thought & common sense and vastly catered for holistic growth of the economy.
The challenging circumstances of a slowing economy, soaring energy prices, inflation, fiscal and current account deficits do not provide adequate leeway to maneuver and hit the path of high growth. Yet the Budget provides a comprehensive plan and directional footprint towards overcoming these hurdles to sustainable growth of 7-8% over the next few years along with providing macro economic stability, lowered inflation, realistic fiscal health targeting and a manageable current account deficit.
The Finance Minister while presenting the budget takes cognizance of the fact that decisive action to fuel growth without populism is the need of the hour. And that resources for developmental expenditure cannot be raised at the cost of burdening the future generations with the legacy of debt. He goes on to emphasize the need to mobilize resources through both tax and non-tax revenues to feed the aspirational developmental expenditure.
In order to achieve this objective the Modi Government has taken head on the various issues plaguing the Indian economy and come out with imaginative and yet very practical and implementable reforms and measures.
Most commodities futures have been in a narrow trading range for quite a while now. However with volatility returning many have started to show signs of movement In this blog post we look at the commodities which hold promise. Corn, copper and soyabean are clear shorts while silver is on the verge of a break down. Gold though in a sideways consolidation could be a short term sell. Meanwhile crude oil and natural gas are hitting strong overhead resistances and could over the next few days put in some pullback. Platinum is still undecisive, sugar is a stock to watch for a buying opportunity and palladium is one lone metal which seems headed higher.
The Indian Pharmaceutical sector has been on a roll ever since the global economy picked itself up post the 2007 mayhem. Given the strong fundamentals of the Indian Pharmaceutical industry and the global opportunity due to the patent cliff in the western world, listed pharmaceutical stocks have responded well and rallied substantially. While the international opportunities have been good for the bottom line, pharmaceutical stocks with a larger or significant share of the domestic pharma market have come in for a rude shock as the implementation of the new pricing policy outline of the NPPA can sharply erode profitability. As the policy elements are still not clear, it would be premature to judge how individual companies would be affected.
With a view to having a mid journey outlook on expected price performance of pharmaceutical stocks, we decided to conduct a study of the major pharmaceutical stocks using technical analysis and analyse which stocks offer the best opportunity both from a long and short point of view. The exhaustive analysis was done on 29 of the major stocks, the details of which one can obtained from the slideshow.
The analysis was done using weekly chart data to get a more longer term picture and some of the results we found were quite contrary to general market expectation; yet others were quite revealing of exciting investment opportunities. We could have easily summed up our analysis and provided an instant listing of our analysis and recommendations for the benefit of our blog readers, but we thought it more appropriate that the reader “visualize” our analysis as “one picture is worth more than a thousand words.”
Technical analysis is a great science for stock price forecasting, but the overall investment decision can be more solid if backed by hard core fundamental study. In part 2 of the Indian Pharmaceutical Outlook, we would be providing extremely high quality fundamental evaluation on the fortunes of these very 29 stocks so that our faithful blog readers can make investment decisions based on comprehensive analysis.
As with all the content on this blog, the report will be provided FREE. However in order to make a point of the exclusivity of the content, we request blog readers to send us an email so that we could deliver it directly in your email inbox. This we request so that we could obtain your feedback on the same report so that we can improve on the content. We would also like to solicit your opinion on the type of content that readers find interesting so that future blog posts could be based more on reader interest rather than just what we think you should read.
We initiate coverage on Petronet LNG Limited(Petronet) as a BUY with a Price Objective of Rs 151 (target PE of 11x
FY2013) over a period of 15-18 months. At CMP of Rs 132.1, the stock is trading at 13.6x and 9.6x its estimated earnings
for FY2012E & FY2013E representing a potential upside of ~13.6%. Petronet LNG is majorly engaged in the business of
LNG procurement, transportation and regasification. Burgeoning natural gas demand supply mismatch in the country
makes it inevitable that the additional demand would be met by imported LNG. Petronet LNG, with its Kochi terminal set
to commission in Q4FY12 and expansion at its Dahej terminal, is all set to benefit from the current scenario. In addition,
diversification plans into the power segment add further value to the company. We expect revenue & earnings growth of
26.1% & 36.5% CAGR respectively over the next three years.
Favourable natural gas demand and supply to augur well for PLNG
On the back of growing consumption, demand for natural gas is expected to
grow at a faster rate of 16.3% (5 year CAGR) to 381 mmscmd compared to
supply which is expected to grow at a 5 year CAGR of 6.8% to 202.9 mmscmd.
This burgeoning demand supply gap is expected to be met through LNG
imports and Petronet LNG with its expanded capacity is well placed to garner a
major portion of this incremental demand. We expect the revenues of Petronet
LNG to grow at a CAGR of 26.1% to Rs 21343.7 crore over the forecast
period.
Kochi terminal & Dahej expansion to drive volume growth
The USD 850 mn Kochi LNG terminal of 2.5 MMTPA capacity is expected to
commission in Q4FY12 which would be later expanded to 5.0 MMTPA by the
end of FY13. Kochi terminal can help serve the Southern market where the
landed cost of domestic gas is higher. The Dahej expansion to 12.5 MMTPA is
expected to commence by FY13 with an additional jetty at Dahej at a cost of
~USD 980 million. Both these projects are to funded in a 70:30 Debt to Equity
ratio. We expect the LNG volumes to grow from the 7.6 MMTPA in FY10 to
10.4 MMTPA in FY13.
LNG pricing not a major concern
Although the LNG pricing is linked to JCC, over the forecast period we do not
expect significant cost increases as there is a fixed formula for pricing the
sourced LNG. Also, with the company having back to back off-take
agreements, we do not foresee any risk in passing on any of the increased
costs. While the recent nuclear
More from Vinit Bolinjkar LION bolinjkar.vinit@gmail.com (20)
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and TemplatesAurelien Domont, MBA
This Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit was created by ex-McKinsey, Deloitte and BCG Management Consultants, after more than 5,000 hours of work. It is considered the world's best & most comprehensive Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit. It includes all the Frameworks, Best Practices & Templates required to successfully undertake the Digital Transformation of your organization and define a robust IT Strategy.
Editable Toolkit to help you reuse our content: 700 Powerpoint slides | 35 Excel sheets | 84 minutes of Video training
This PowerPoint presentation is only a small preview of our Toolkits. For more details, visit www.domontconsulting.com
LA HUG - Video Testimonials with Chynna Morgan - June 2024Lital Barkan
Have you ever heard that user-generated content or video testimonials can take your brand to the next level? We will explore how you can effectively use video testimonials to leverage and boost your sales, content strategy, and increase your CRM data.🤯
We will dig deeper into:
1. How to capture video testimonials that convert from your audience 🎥
2. How to leverage your testimonials to boost your sales 💲
3. How you can capture more CRM data to understand your audience better through video testimonials. 📊
Cracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptxWorkforce Group
Cultivating and maintaining discipline within teams is a critical differentiator for successful organisations.
Forward-thinking leaders and business managers understand the impact that discipline has on organisational success. A disciplined workforce operates with clarity, focus, and a shared understanding of expectations, ultimately driving better results, optimising productivity, and facilitating seamless collaboration.
Although discipline is not a one-size-fits-all approach, it can help create a work environment that encourages personal growth and accountability rather than solely relying on punitive measures.
In this deck, you will learn the significance of workplace discipline for organisational success. You’ll also learn
• Four (4) workplace discipline methods you should consider
• The best and most practical approach to implementing workplace discipline.
• Three (3) key tips to maintain a disciplined workplace.
Attending a job Interview for B1 and B2 Englsih learnersErika906060
It is a sample of an interview for a business english class for pre-intermediate and intermediate english students with emphasis on the speking ability.
Tata Group Dials Taiwan for Its Chipmaking Ambition in Gujarat’s DholeraAvirahi City Dholera
The Tata Group, a titan of Indian industry, is making waves with its advanced talks with Taiwanese chipmakers Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC) and UMC Group. The goal? Establishing a cutting-edge semiconductor fabrication unit (fab) in Dholera, Gujarat. This isn’t just any project; it’s a potential game changer for India’s chipmaking aspirations and a boon for investors seeking promising residential projects in dholera sir.
Visit : https://www.avirahi.com/blog/tata-group-dials-taiwan-for-its-chipmaking-ambition-in-gujarats-dholera/
Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfKaiNexus
Enterprise excellence and inclusive excellence are closely linked, and real-world challenges have shown that both are essential to the success of any organization. To achieve enterprise excellence, organizations must focus on improving their operations and processes while creating an inclusive environment that engages everyone. In this interactive session, the facilitator will highlight commonly established business practices and how they limit our ability to engage everyone every day. More importantly, though, participants will likely gain increased awareness of what we can do differently to maximize enterprise excellence through deliberate inclusion.
What is Enterprise Excellence?
Enterprise Excellence is a holistic approach that's aimed at achieving world-class performance across all aspects of the organization.
What might I learn?
A way to engage all in creating Inclusive Excellence. Lessons from the US military and their parallels to the story of Harry Potter. How belt systems and CI teams can destroy inclusive practices. How leadership language invites people to the party. There are three things leaders can do to engage everyone every day: maximizing psychological safety to create environments where folks learn, contribute, and challenge the status quo.
Who might benefit? Anyone and everyone leading folks from the shop floor to top floor.
Dr. William Harvey is a seasoned Operations Leader with extensive experience in chemical processing, manufacturing, and operations management. At Michelman, he currently oversees multiple sites, leading teams in strategic planning and coaching/practicing continuous improvement. William is set to start his eighth year of teaching at the University of Cincinnati where he teaches marketing, finance, and management. William holds various certifications in change management, quality, leadership, operational excellence, team building, and DiSC, among others.
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...dylandmeas
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey through Full Sail University. Below, you’ll find a collection of my work showcasing my skills and expertise in digital marketing, event planning, and media production.
The world of search engine optimization (SEO) is buzzing with discussions after Google confirmed that around 2,500 leaked internal documents related to its Search feature are indeed authentic. The revelation has sparked significant concerns within the SEO community. The leaked documents were initially reported by SEO experts Rand Fishkin and Mike King, igniting widespread analysis and discourse. For More Info:- https://news.arihantwebtech.com/search-disrupted-googles-leaked-documents-rock-the-seo-world/
What is the TDS Return Filing Due Date for FY 2024-25.pdfseoforlegalpillers
It is crucial for the taxpayers to understand about the TDS Return Filing Due Date, so that they can fulfill your TDS obligations efficiently. Taxpayers can avoid penalties by sticking to the deadlines and by accurate filing of TDS. Timely filing of TDS will make sure about the availability of tax credits. You can also seek the professional guidance of experts like Legal Pillers for timely filing of the TDS Return.
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern BusinessesSynapseIndia
Stay ahead of the curve with our premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions. Our expert developers utilize MongoDB, Express.js, AngularJS, and Node.js to create modern and responsive web applications. Trust us for cutting-edge solutions that drive your business growth and success.
Know more: https://www.synapseindia.com/technology/mean-stack-development-company.html
2. i
I t -,. -
[VENTURA:
- .
V E N T U R A SEe U R I TIE S LTD.
World Oil Discoveries
World Oil Discovery vs. Oil Consumption
0
"-
III .Q
ell
"-
Q)
C
70
40 I
30
20
.Q
o
60 j~DU
10
50
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
years
Oil Discovery-Oil Discovery,5yr tvNA -Oil Consurrption,5yr tvNA
Source: www.energiekrise.de/e/aspo _news/aspo/Newsletter091
~ World Oil discoveries peaked in early 80's since then there has not been
significant oil finds.
~ 1990 marked the point in time, when world oil consumption first exceeded
the oil find and since then we have been eating into the reserves.
~ Today the annual consumption of oil is 30 billion barrels.
3. I VENTURA
V E N T U R A SEe U R I TI E S LTD.
World Oil Reserves
Oil Reserves Depletion Not Factoring Peak Oil
~
~
.a
•..
:B
1200.0
400.0
800.0
600.0 I Reserves at 950 bbl
Reserves at 630 bbl
Ul
1000.0
200.0 Vs
BP Reserves at 1250 bbl
0.0
~ &@~~~&~h~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~- ~ 0/ # # # # ~~~y
Source: Collin Cambel peak oil study
o Base Case Reserves De·pletion 0 Base Case Estimate 1 _J
Oil reserves actually peaked in 1980
As per our estimates the reserves of oil stand at 630 bbl, the British Petroluem Statistical
Energy Review (BPSER) estimates reserves at 1258 bbl. BPSER keeps increasing annual
reserves about stated discoveries. These figures are not audited by BP and taken at face
value as reported by the oil producing countries.
This large discrepancy in data is due to the overstating of oil reserves by OPEC countries in
the 80s.
4. I VENTURA
V E N T U R A SEe U R I TIE S LTD.
Spurious Reserves
Dhabi 25
41.00?
90.00?
92.85164.6
92.21?169
47.88165
57.5168.8
55.31
1.3517.87
93Venezuela
92.85?
30.40
30.6
48.5
48.8
5889.77
1.40
Kuwait
Dubai
29.7
1.44
314166
2864.23
29100
920
65.4
51162.4
65.9
417.95
63.9
11.3
1163.35
4.00?
Iran
4320.3
1.44
64.48
44.11
47.1
300
91.92
095
26.1
Amount
358.08
166.57
56.30?
169.97
166.98
30.51 59
92.21
258.00??
30.5
88.3
1.27
91.92
100.00?
5721.5
192.11
44.5
24.85
25.85
Arabia*
091.92
25.59
1 Saudi
Iraq Spurious -
Selected Reported Reserves (billion bbl) with Suspect Increases
Abu
Source: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm
• The spurious reserves are so defined as the countries' upgraded oil reserves without any supporting evidence of
new finds or upgradation to the proven category.
• In the 1980's, OPEC embarked on oil production quotas which were based on the oil reserves of the producing
country. The OPEC countries in order to garner a larger production quota fudged their reserves.
• The extent of overstating the reserves corresponds to 10 years of oil supplies at the present rate of consumption
(approx 30 bb p.a.)
5. VENTURA
V E N T U R A SEe U R I TI E S LTD.
Typical Production Profile of an Oil well
6 0
(U a
>.
~ 400
L
:: 3 0
o
(I"j
-0 200
(U
en
::J 1 0
..c
.•....
a
a o 1 20 30
Y ars of production
~ The point of maximum production, after which there is a decline is
known as Peak Oil.
.
6. I VENTURA
V E N T U R A SEe U R I TI E S LTD.
Depletion Profile of major Oil fields
Prudhoe Bay Production Profile Samotlor production Forecast to 2011
700 since 1969
250 mn bbll year
.•.. 200
1 250 mln bbll year 150
~ 600
100
50
:8 500 o
c: 1000
1999 2003 2007 2011
,9
400
'E
750
g 300
'n
1980 • max, production '.189 bin bbl
-5 200 500
e
0.
100
(5 250
o
1975 1980 1985 1990 2005 2010 2015
o .•
Alaska's Prudhoe Bay Field displays the profile of constrained production: 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
buildup, followed by plateau, followed by irreversible decline.
7. I VENTURA
V E N T U R A SEe U R I TIE S LTD.
Peak Oil
Peak Oil
600
900
t
c::
500 "
400
300 35.0
.0 ~ Of, '
:0 800
200
700
100 World Oil Forecast
:a 30.0
25.0
:a
20.0 .0
c::
15.0 ~
:0
l 10.0
5.0
_ Base Case Reserves -5.6% Depletion -7% Depletion Rate -9% Depletion Rate
---- - ---
Source: BP Yearly Statistical Analysis 2008 & Zorbaquants estimates
• World Oil production plateaud in 2004-5 as the oil producing countries used EaR (e hanced oil recovery) techniques
to extract oil before the depletion profile sets in.
• The peak of oil production, we believe, should occur no latter than 2010-11. It may have already set in, but cannot be
pinpointed accurately due to lack of credible data. Recently Dr. Fatih Sirol, Chief Economist at lEA, remarked in an
interview that the Peak Oil would be hit in year 2010.
• We have assumed 5.6% as the base case of depletion of World Oil Production, keeping in mind the present
economic recession. Incase of moderate growth the depletion should happen at an accelerated rate of 7% and a full
blown recovery in economic conditions would lead to a 9% depletion rate.
8. I ,VENTURA
V E NT U R A SEe U R IT I E S LTD.
World Production Profile
World Oil Production
35
2.0%
4.0%
10.0% Cl
0
•..
0
~3:
-
0.0%
.s::.
30 8.0%
6.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
•.• 25
III
Gl
~ 20
:c
.c
c: 15
.2
:c 10
5
o
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
year
-World Production, 5 yr MVA, LHS -% Growth, 5 year MVA, RHS
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2009
• Oil production growth crashed since the early 1970s during the economic recession until the
mid 80s. After 1985, the production rate picked up until it peaked at 2% in 1991 (marked by
arrow)
• This point in time (1991-92) coincides with the peaking of oil discoveries. It is clearly noticeable
that despite increased production since then, the production rate was unable to ramp up above
2%. This flat rate of growth, we believe, is due to the EaR techniques used by producing
nations to sustain the oil production.
9. ,
VENTURA
V E N T U R A SEe U R I TIE S LTD.
Crude Supply
World Oil Supply
30.0
~ 20.0
"-
co
.0
c:
o
.0 10.0-0 • ~
0.0 ~ r
(:..::) (:..~ (:..1:>.(:..X:J (:..fQ ~::) ~~ ~I:>. ~X:J ~fQ R,::) R,~ R,I:>. R,X:J R,fQ ~::) ~~ ~I:>. ~X:J ~fQ
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
- Peak Oil Countries, 5 yr rvrv A - World Production, 5 yr rvrv A
- Non Peak Oil Countries, 5 yr rvrv A
-, ~~~ ===---
Source : BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2009
• The major oil producing countries peaked as early as 2001-02. However the Middle east countries were yet to peak.
• Infact the production in these countries was ramped up to replace the diminishing supply from the "peaked" countries.
Saudi Arabia with its prolific reserves emerged as the "swing producer."
10. I I VENTURA
V E N T U R A SEe U R I TIE S LTD.
Peak Oil Countries
..
0.1
Country Year 1993
Peak6.09% 2004 (billion bbl) 14.0
Decline1.2
0.29%
4.34%
4.38% 2001
0.89%
0.10%
5.54% 0.3
0.2
0.1
4.1
0.9
1.4
1.1
0.4
1.15% 2000
1.46% 1991
1.45% 1999
1970
0.6
1.2
1.07% 1998
4.99%
5.02%
0.53% 2005
0.76%
0.56% Rate 2008 Production
0.9
0.6
1.2
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.3
1995
1978
2.5
0.3
0.1
0.7
0.4
Production9.3
Source : BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2009
11. VENTURA
V E N T U R A SEe U R IT I E S LTD.
Mexican Reserves
60
• The Mexican case is a striking
50
example of how the production
:c
.c
40 ••••••••••
".
Rate of Decline
-3.7 profile declines sharply post
~
c: 30
.......... peaking.
ii5 20
...............
10
o I- • Application of EOR techniques
OJ'Or::, OJ'O'l,, Oj~
~ ~ ~ OJ'Oro OJ'O'O OjOjr::, OjOj'l" Ojet
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ OjOjro OjOj'O ~r::,r::, r::,r::,'l" r::,cl" r:;,r::,ro r:;,r::,'O
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ enhances production but kills the
year
_~_~ __ J
ultimate oil recovery in the decline
Source : BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2009 stage of production.
Cantarell Oil Production
2.5 • The Cantarell oil fields in which
>-
'"
2
nitrogen injection technique was
::!2
:c 1.5
.c utilized used to produce over
c:
~ 1 2mbd per day. Today it barely
E 0.5
produces 0.7 mbd
o
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
years
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2009
12. I VENTURAj
V E N T U R A SEe U R I TIE S LTD.
Oil Consumption of Oil Producers .
Oil countries Consumption as % of Production
50%
45% • The 2 billion population of the
l: 40%
o
'u 35%
:l i middle east is growing at an
~
C.
30%
25% average of 2.67% (twice that of
~
~
20%
15%
World Population Growth)
'if!. 10%
50/0
0%
• Saudi Arabia and Iran, the
year
J largest oil producers are growing
Oil countries Consumption as % of Production
at 3.67% and 2.75% respectively.
~
(J)
<0 0
~
.2
::>
l:
c;;
~
"
U
c..
'"
LO
<030.0%
~ •....
(J)
100.0%
<0
80.0%
20.0%
60.0%
70.0%
•....
50.0%
;:::.
40.0%
10.0% LO -
150.0% +
90.0%
• This explains the increasing
consumption of the oil producing
countries as their energy
require'ments increase.
••••• (J) m 0 (f') 0 0
T""'"
0 U') f'-..
ro ~ ~
m ~ m ~ ~ ~
~ 0'>
•....
(J)
•....
(J) m m m T""" T""" ,..... ,...... .,..... ..,... moo CI 0 0
m m m m m T""" N CI N
year
-Saudi Arabia S-Mexico -Venezuela -Iran
S
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2009
13. I VENTURA
I
V E N T U R A SEe U R I TIE S LTD.
World Oil Demand
World Oil Demand Growth
4.50%
4.00%
~ 3.50%
~ 3.00%
[ 2.50%
i
in
e
C)
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50% ~
~
0.00% -
-0.50% ~ RJ' RJ~ RJO:> s:t RJ0 RJ(() ~ RJCO RJC?> ~:P ~, ~~ ~O:> ~ ~0 ~(() ~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
years
- BRIG - Developed Countries - World.. - Oil Producing
Source : BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2009
• World oil consumption has closely tracked the population growth of 1.5%
• The growth in the BRIG nations is the highest 3%, in line with high GDP growth.
• The demand growth in the developed world has been stagnant since 2002
14. I VENTURA I
V E N T U R A S EC U R I TIE S LTD.
Other Asia Year -1990 o North America exUS Other Asia Year· 2007
5%
• US50 8%
o Europe exGermany
o Germany
• Pacific ex Japan
o Japan
• China
o India
• Brazil
• Russia
o Iran
• Saudi Arabia
• Restof Widdle East
• Venezuela
• Africa Europe ex
Europe ex • S. & C. America Germany
18%
Germany • Other Asia
23%
Source : BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2009
•.
• Comparison of Oil consumption in 1990 and 2007 reveals the following
• USA has mainatined its share. Currently it consumes 18.5 mbd of which the US military consumes almost 40%
• Declines are observed in Japan, Europe (ex Germany) and Russia.
• China has increased 3 fold and current consumption stands at 7 mbd.
15. I VENTURA
V E N T U R A SEe U R I TI E S LTD.
World Demand Projections
World Demand Projections
-00.0
.- -- 79.8 --
- - I: ---•• 90.7 __ 87.2 -
- ••
-85.093.4 --
•• • 84.5 •• •• --
--
96.1 ••
1
-
94.6
97.3
-
-- -
III
J:l
~
:::P
75.0 ~
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
years
-Optimistic +28D - Pessimistic -28D - Base Case
• R-value of World oil consumption to GDP is .925 while that to World Population it is .0.979.
• We have assumed a weighted average correlation of GDP and population for demand forecasting.
• Based on our Demand Projection Model, world oil consumption should climb to 97.3 mbd with a 2 standard deviation
for best case (1.0.0 mbd) and worst case (94.6 mbd) scenarios.
• In full bloom economies the World per capita consumtion of oil has been .0..013 bpd (or 2 ..06 Ii) and in recessionary
times it has never fallen below .0..012 bdp ( or 1.98 Ii). This clearly explains the inelastic nature of demand, non
correlation of oil prices and consumption and how central oil is to human life.
16. I VENTURA
V E N T U R A SEe U R I TIE S LTD.
Demand & Supply
Price
World Oil Demand vs. Supply
trajectory
l:
0'0 C.
E
-,
.0 140.0 ~
80.0
60.0
40.0
~ T
20.0
0.0
100.0
120.0 t-
years
-Production BaseCase-Demand Bas Case
The assumption that oil demand will be satiated by ever increasing oil supplies
is wishful thinking. Till peak oil, World GDP was driving oil production, post peak
oil, oil availability will govern World growth until the world embraces alternative
sources of energy.
17. I VENTURA
v EN T U RA SEe U R I TIE S LTD.
Thank You