Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2016

1,860 views

Published on

The outlook for oil demand, supply and refining through 2020

Published in: Economy & Finance
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2016

  1. 1. © OECD/IEA 2016© OECD/IEA 2016 Houston, Texas 22 February 2016
  2. 2. © OECD/IEA 2016 The force of lower oil prices Demand growth solid at 1.2 mb/d through 2021 Production growth slashed as investment cuts bite Crude trade shifts more and more eastwards Huge uncertainties  OPEC production policy  Non-OPEC  World economy  Efficiency gains
  3. 3. © OECD/IEA 2016 World oil demand growth slows  Cools from 1.7%/yr in 2009-15 to 1.2%/yr in 2016-2021 2009-15 2015-21 © OECD/IEA, 2016(kb/d) -179 -76 138 52 283 27 164 215 104 155 Americas Africa Middle East Europe FSU 969 826 Asia/Pacific
  4. 4. © OECD/IEA 2016 Chinese demand growth slips a gear  Economy slows and shifts from industry to services 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 mb/d LPG Naphtha Motor Gasoline Jet & Kerosene Gasoil/Diesel Residual Fuel Other Products y-o-y Growth (RHS) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 mb/d LPG Naphtha Motor Gasoline Jet & Kerosene Gasoil/Diesel Residual Fuel Other Products
  5. 5. © OECD/IEA 2016 Indian oil use races ahead  Motorists take to the roads 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 kb/d LPG Naphtha Motor Gasoline Jet & Kerosene Gasoil/Diesel Other Products 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 mb/d Total mb/d
  6. 6. © OECD/IEA 2016 Upstream oil capex cut for 2nd year  Drop of 17% in 2016 follows 24% reduction in 2015 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 USDbillion 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 USDbillion America N America S Europe Australia Middle East Russia Asia Africa
  7. 7. © OECD/IEA 2016 World supply growth plunges  2015-21 growth slows to 4.1 mb/d vs 11 mb/d in 2009-15 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 mb/d OPEC Non-OPEC *2014 -15 shows actual output growth. 2016 assumes Iran ramp-up. OPEC capacity increases thereafter. -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 mb/d OPEC Non-OPEC World *2014 -15 shows actual output growth. 2016 assumes Iran ramp-up. OPEC capacity increases thereafter.
  8. 8. © OECD/IEA 2016 US LTO takes biggest hit for now 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 mb/d Bakken Eagle Ford W. Texas Niobrara Other LTO  Output to drop by 800 kb/d over 2016-17
  9. 9. © OECD/IEA 2016 US still the world’s growth engine  Gains in Brazil, Canada; drops in Russia, China Selected sources of non-OPEC supply change 2015-21 - 400 - 200 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 kb/d
  10. 10. © OECD/IEA 2016 Post-sanctions Iran leads OPEC gains  Output to rise 1 mb/d to 3.9 mb/d by 2021 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 mb/d Actual production 2010-15, capacity thereafterActual production 2010-15, capacity thereafter 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 mb/d Actual production 2010-15, capacity thereafterActual production 2010-15, capacity thereafter
  11. 11. © OECD/IEA 2016 Middle East dominates oil exports  Producers target non-OECD Asia Crude Exports in 2021 for Key Trade Routes (million barrels per day) 2.2 4.0 4.7 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.8 6.1 Other Asia China OECD Europe 2.4 1.2 OECD Asia Oceania3 0.5 0.8 3.9 OECD Americas2
  12. 12. © OECD/IEA 2016 Surplus erodes in 2017  Tightening market drives price recovery 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 mb/d World demand 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 mb/d World demand Global supply -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 mb/d Implied stock change -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 mb/d Implied stock change - base case Stock change - high supply -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 mb/d Implied stock change - base case Stock change - high supply Stock change - low supply
  13. 13. © OECD/IEA 2016 Conclusions  Global oil supply growth is plunging, as low prices take their toll Iran leads OPEC gains over the forecast period Despite a near-term dip, US production rises to an all-time high  While global oil demand growth is slowing, oil use crosses the symbolic 100 mb/d mark towards the end of the decade  The availability of resources that can be easily and quickly tapped set to limit the scope of price rallies – at least in the near term  The historic investment cuts now being seen raise the odds of oil- security surprises in the not-too-distant-future

×