How will Trade deals and monetary policy affect the US Dollar?

1. Prepare for the Future by Stress Testing Scenarios
J u n e 2 0 2 5
What Direction for the US Dollar?
Orion Risk Intelligence Team

2. What Direction for the US Dollar?
S+P 500
6,620
+10%
MSCI EAFE
2,500
-5%
10-Year Treasury
3.75%
-75 bps
S+P 500
6,500
+8%
MSCI EAFE
2,900
+10%
10-Year Treasury
4.50%
+0 bps
S+P 500
6,680
+11%
MSCI EAFE
3,230
+23%
10-Year Treasury
5.25%
+75 bps
The Good Old
Days
High
BASELINE
Low
Status-Quo
A Run Away
from the Dollar
Trade deals struck,
questions about US as a
safe haven fade, ex-US
funds flood into USD and
fixed income, pushing
borrowing costs down and
stocks up.
Trade and policy
uncertainty persist but
don’t worsen, global
investors at the margins
look for opportunities to
diversify away from US
financial assets.
Confidence in US economy
falls dramatically, leading
to easing monetary policy
at home; Weaker dollar
fuels a rally in international
currencies and markets.

3. Disclosures
Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk
Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or
strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results.
Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While
the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy,
completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the
results to be obtained from its use.
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