Nj future redevelopment forum 2019 poole
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This document summarizes information about the housing crisis in the United States, with a focus on the "missing middle" type of housing. It discusses trends showing rising home prices and cost-burdened households in New Jersey from 2000-2015. It also examines data demonstrating underproduction of housing units in New Jersey during this period. The document outlines key housing demand demographics over the next 20 years and characteristics of missing middle housing types. It explores challenges to developing missing middle housing and financial considerations regarding zoning and fiscal impacts.
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Nj future redevelopment forum 2019 poole
- 1. The Missing MiddleEXPLORING THE US'S HOUSING CRISIS
- 2. Housing Trends Concepts & Types Demand Characteristics Assembly Challenges Financial & Fiscal Issues OUTLINE
- 3. Average Change in Home Prices by County Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve GEOFRED From 2000-2016, average home prices in New Jersey increased by 50% to 100% depending on the county. 2000 - 2016
- 4. Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve In 2015, many New Jersey households were paying more than 30% of their gross income on housing. 2015 Cost Burdened Households
- 5. Source: ECONorthwest estimates, Census Bureau ACS 1-year Estimates of housing Stock An econometric statistical model estimated that New Jersey under-produced 319,886 housing units from 2000-2015, equivalent to 8.9% of its total housing stock. 2000 - 2015 Housing Underproduction
- 6. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development, Institute for Building Technology & Safety. 1968 - 2017 Supply of New U.S. Housing The supply of new housing in the U.S. is low, by historical levels.
- 7. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1-Unit 2-Unit 3-4 Unit 5+ Unit Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Manufacturing and Construction Division 1980 - 2017 New Jersey Housing Units Authorized In recent years, multifamily housing with 5 or more units surpassed single family housing production. However… …“Missing Middle” housing development (principally, 2 to 4 unit structures) has greatly lagged behind the production of other housing typologies.
- 8. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Hoboken City Union City West New York Town Jersey City Newark City Passaic City Fort Lee Borough Camden City Bayonne City Trenton City Elizabeth City Paterson City Atlantic City East Orange City Hackensack City New Brunswick City Perth Amboy City Ocean City Long Branch City Plainfield City Linden City Clifton City New Jersey Sayreville Borough Vineland City 1, Detached 1, Attached 2-Unit 3 to 4 Unit 5 to 9 Unit 10 to 19 Unit 20 to 49 Unit 50+ Unit Mobile Home Other Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013- 2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates In NJ, single family housing units (detached and attached) represents 63% of all housing. Housing by Building Type Across 25 NJ Cities, 2017
- 9. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Union City Paterson City Bayonne City Passaic City Elizabeth City Newark City Perth Amboy City Jersey City West New York Town Hoboken City New Brunswick City East Orange City Clifton City Linden City Hackensack City Atlantic City Plainfield City Long Branch City New Jersey Sayreville Borough Trenton City Ocean City Camden City Fort Lee Borough Vineland City 2-Unit 3 to 4 Unit 5 to 9 Unit 10 to 19 Unit Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013- 2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates In NJ, small-scale multifamily housing, also known as “missing middle” housing, represents just 26% of all housing. Missing Middle Housing By Building Type Across 25 NJ Cities, 2017
- 10. CONCEPT & TYPES Duplex: Side-by-Side Duplex: Stacked Triplex/Fourplex Courtyard Apartments Bungalow Court Townhouse Multiplex: Small Live/Work Source: Opticos Design, Inc
- 11. -500,000 500,000 1,500,000 2,500,000 3,500,000 4,500,000 5,500,000 <1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100+ Pre- School- Age Children Grade School- Age Children High School and College-Age Young Workforce and Grads Early-Stage Families Late-Stage Families Young Empty Nesters Older Empty Nesters Mostly Retired 2040 2020 U.S. Population Projections 2020-2040 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Population Projections 2014-2060 Key Housing Demand Age Cohorts DEMAND Over the next 20 years, much of the projected population growth driving new housing demand will be among aging Millennials and Baby Boomers.
- 12. DEMAND Changing household size, demographics and consumer preferences require a greater variety of housing choices. Millennials • Young, highly educated, technology- driven members of the population desire mobile, walkable lifestyles. Baby Boomers • Americans are working and living longer, and they want to stay mobile and active in their later years. Diverse Households • The number of multi- generational households in the U.S. has been on the rise since 1940. Unsatisfied Suburbanites • A growing demand for a walkable lifestyle has the potential to transform sprawling suburbs into walkable communities.
- 13. DEMAND Source: Urban Land Institute. What’s Next at the Local There is a mismatch between growing demand for housing in urbanized walkable neighborhoods and where the majority of our housing stock exists – suburbia. Single-family homes located in conventional suburbs make up 90% of the current housing stock available in the U.S., yet more and more, consumers are seeking non-single-family housing options that offer walkable lifestyle.
- 14. Walkable Context Small-Footprint Buildings Lower Perceived Density Smaller, Well-Designed Units Fewer Off-Street Parking Spaces Simple Construction Creates Community Marketable CHARACTERISTICS So what do building types have in common?
- 15. ASSEMBLY How does Missing Middle Housing integrate into existing or new blocks? Distributed throughout a block with single-family homes
- 16. ASSEMBLY How does Missing Middle Housing integrate into existing or new blocks? Using a block comprised exclusively of Missing Middle types to transition to a commercial corridor
- 17. ASSEMBLY How does Missing Middle Housing integrate into existing or new blocks? Placed on the end-grain of a single-family block
- 18. ASSEMBLY How does Missing Middle Housing integrate into existing or new blocks? Using Missing Middle types to transition from single-family homes to higher-density housing
- 19. CHALLENGES Entitlement • Housing developers widely acknowledge that there is limited available land zoned appropriately for missing middle housing in metro areas Economics • The high cost of development, including construction materials, labor, land, utilities, and fees, is a substantial barrier to housing production. Financing • For homeowners who want to add detached accessory dwelling units or additional internal units, financing these improvements may be challenging. External • While beyond local control, some state building code standards may present challenges for accessible missing middle housing.
- 20. Financial Feasibility and Fiscal Impact Considerations Zoning Matters • Facilitating appropriate density through the zoning code is often more beneficial to (and desired by) developers than a tax abatement. “Middle Missing” housing is highly dependent upon economies of scale. Fiscally Friendly • “Missing Middle” housing, generally, is going to be net positive to a municipality and school district. Further, adding these units to a locality is also a supportive measure for local businesses which depend upon households. Supports Business Retention and Recruitment Efforts • If businesses are to be successful in retaining and recruiting talent, long- term, there must be a sufficient inventory of quality affordable housing within a 20-minute drive of the employment center.
- 21. The Missing MiddleEXPLORING THE US'S HOUSING CRISIS Thank you.
Editor's Notes
- To calculate the total number of units under-produced from 2000 to 2015, we estimated each state’s historic relationship between the production of housing units (supply) and a host of demand-side indicators using an econometric statistical model. We then calculated each state’s baseline housing production through 2000 and forecasted the number of units that would have been produced in 2015 if each market maintained its historic equilibrium. Then using the actual number of housing units in 2015, we calculated the total units that were under- or over-produced from 2000 to 2015 at the state level.
- www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20170221_age_in_place.page
- Missing Middle Housing consists of multi-unit housing types such as duplexes, fourplexes, bungalow courts, and mansion apartments that are not bigger than a large house, that are integrated throughout most walkable pre-1940s neighborhoods, often integrated into blocks with primarily single-family homes, and that provide diverse housing choices and generate enough density to support transit and locally-serving commercial amenities. Although many of these are a common feature in pre-war building stocks, these housing types have become much less common (hence the “missing”). The term was coined by architect and urban planner Daniel Parolek, Principal and Founder of Opticos Design, Inc.
- https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/9ui848/oc_us_population_projections_by_age_through_2060/
- Singles, childless couples, and empty nesters have two things in common: They are growing in number, and they want a unique type of home. Single-family homes located in conventional suburbs make up 90% of the current housing stock available in the United States, yet more and more, consumers are seeking non-single-family housing options that offer a walkable lifestyle.
- Walkable Context Buyers and renters of these housing types often trade square footage for proximity to services and amenities. Small-Footprint Buildings Missing Middle housing types generally have a similar size footprint to single-family homes. Lower Perceived Density Due to the small footprint of the building types and the fact that they are usually mixed with a variety of building types even on an individual block. Smaller, Well-Designed Units Most Missing Middle housing types have smaller unit sizes. Fewer Off-Street Parking Spaces They are built in walkable neighborhoods with proximity to transportation options and commercial amenities. They should not provide more than one parking space per unit. Simple Construction Missing Middle Housing is simply constructed (Type V), which increases affordability when units are sold or rented. Creates Community Growing market of single-person households (nearly 30% of all households) that want to be part of a community. Marketable Because of the increasing demand from baby boomers and millennials, as well as shifting household demographics, the market is demanding more walkable places to live.
- Missing Middle buildings typically have a footprint not larger than a large single-family home, making it easy to integrate them into existing neighborhoods, as well as serve as a way for the neighborhood to transition to higher-density and main street contexts.
- Walkable Context Buyers and renters of these housing types often trade square footage for proximity to services and amenities. Small-Footprint Buildings Missing Middle housing types generally have a similar size footprint to single-family homes. Lower Perceived Density Due to the small footprint of the building types and the fact that they are usually mixed with a variety of building types even on an individual block. Smaller, Well-Designed Units Most Missing Middle housing types have smaller unit sizes. Fewer Off-Street Parking Spaces They are built in walkable neighborhoods with proximity to transportation options and commercial amenities. They should not provide more than one parking space per unit. Simple Construction Missing Middle Housing is simply constructed (Type V), which increases affordability when units are sold or rented. Creates Community Growing market of single-person households (nearly 30% of all households) that want to be part of a community. Marketable Because of the increasing demand from baby boomers and millennials, as well as shifting household demographics, the market is demanding more walkable places to live.
- Walkable Context Buyers and renters of these housing types often trade square footage for proximity to services and amenities. Small-Footprint Buildings Missing Middle housing types generally have a similar size footprint to single-family homes. Lower Perceived Density Due to the small footprint of the building types and the fact that they are usually mixed with a variety of building types even on an individual block. Smaller, Well-Designed Units Most Missing Middle housing types have smaller unit sizes. Fewer Off-Street Parking Spaces They are built in walkable neighborhoods with proximity to transportation options and commercial amenities. They should not provide more than one parking space per unit. Simple Construction Missing Middle Housing is simply constructed (Type V), which increases affordability when units are sold or rented. Creates Community Growing market of single-person households (nearly 30% of all households) that want to be part of a community. Marketable Because of the increasing demand from baby boomers and millennials, as well as shifting household demographics, the market is demanding more walkable places to live.
- Walkable Context Buyers and renters of these housing types often trade square footage for proximity to services and amenities. Small-Footprint Buildings Missing Middle housing types generally have a similar size footprint to single-family homes. Lower Perceived Density Due to the small footprint of the building types and the fact that they are usually mixed with a variety of building types even on an individual block. Smaller, Well-Designed Units Most Missing Middle housing types have smaller unit sizes. Fewer Off-Street Parking Spaces They are built in walkable neighborhoods with proximity to transportation options and commercial amenities. They should not provide more than one parking space per unit. Simple Construction Missing Middle Housing is simply constructed (Type V), which increases affordability when units are sold or rented. Creates Community Growing market of single-person households (nearly 30% of all households) that want to be part of a community. Marketable Because of the increasing demand from baby boomers and millennials, as well as shifting household demographics, the market is demanding more walkable places to live.
- Economic: The floor on home prices is ultimately set by the actual costs of building new housing. Fannie Mae reported an average of $192 per square foot for apartment buildings in 2017. This translates directly to monthly rent: depending on the assumptions you make, the minimum viable rent for an average-sized apartment in that building might easily be over $1,500 per month, or even $2,000.
- Economic: The floor on home prices is ultimately set by the actual costs of building new housing. Fannie Mae reported an average of $192 per square foot for apartment buildings in 2017. This translates directly to monthly rent: depending on the assumptions you make, the minimum viable rent for an average-sized apartment in that building might easily be over $1,500 per month, or even $2,000.