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Air Quality Modelling of new and Emerging Vehicle Technologies- What can they Deliver in Scotland?

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Scott Hamilton, Ricardo

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Air Quality Modelling of new and Emerging Vehicle Technologies- What can they Deliver in Scotland?

  1. 1. 1© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Clean Air Zones in Scotland, what can current technology deliver? Scott Hamilton, PhD Nicola Masey, PhD Ricardo, UK Dispersion Modellers Users Group conference, London, 2018 10m resolution air quality model of most of Scotland’s urbanised areas >30,000 km2
  2. 2. 2© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Our locations
  3. 3. 3© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Our heritage
  4. 4. 4© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Our heritage
  5. 5. 5© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Topics for this talk • No legislation (its almost home time after all) • Main focus is large scale/high resolution air quality modelling. • Technical description of the RapidAIR model • How it can be used to model big policy interventions (like CAZs!) • A case study I modelled in our RapidAIR system for this event- which hopefully shows the benefits of a national scale high resolution model set up consistently for all areas • “What is the best we can expect from available or soon to be available engine technologies?” • Some thoughts/explanations on the findings
  6. 6. 6© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Caveats / limitations • Average speed based emissions model (COPERT5) • Meteorology is steady state obviously not the case for such a large domain • Assumption that emerging engine tech will reduce emissions as forecast • A very simple view of the future – no change in other source types • Main focus is PM10 because of our really low annual mean standard- also we are only modelling primary emissions of PM • Road abrasion, brake wear, tyre wear- very simple treatment
  7. 7. 7© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence What is RapidAir® ? Dispersion model which automates much of the workflow for dispersion modelling for road sources in large areas. Some neat things it does: • Traffic emissions model (COPERT5) • Road dispersion model (based on AERMOD) • Methods developed from USEPA guidance • Street canyon options (with auto allocator) • Area source model (AERMOD) • Unlimited domain size and number of sources • Met data- automation of sourcing / handling • Automatic integration of background values (in the UK) • Model calibration and scaling • Lots of utilities • NOx NO2 chemistry options (Defra, Jenkin) • Interactive plotting • Automatic reporting (… of the boring stuff) • Runs on any modern OS • Its REALLY fast https://ee.ricardo.com/air-quality/city-scale-air-quality
  8. 8. 8© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence RapidAIR UI- runs on any office computer • RapidAIR uses open source python libraries- typical city run takes a few min (Win, i5, 16GB RAM) • Most processes are automated by controllers written in pure python • Pandas, GDAL, Numpy, python 2.7 standard library • The UI is developed in the popular QT framework (QGIS is built in this too) We use the Continuum Analytics Anaconda python distribution. This has transformed the way I work! https://www.anaconda.com/download/ This distribution has become something of a standard in scientific computing, in areas like machine learning, astronomy, meteorology and other data intensive scientific disciplines.
  9. 9. 9© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Data RapidAir NO2 model RapidAir NO2 in a GIS RapidAir NO2 in a GIS RapidAir NO2 in Google Earth RapidAir NO2 in Google Earth Mostly it’s a dispersion model we’re using in large urban areas- this is London
  10. 10. 10© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence UK Projects- example Ricardo recently developed a RapidAir model for Fife Council. The project was funded by the Scottish Government air quality grants scheme. The model has a resolution of 3m (>300million prediction points) and covers the whole Kingdom. Data products include common GIS formats, Google Earth layers, interactive report including OpenAir.
  11. 11. 11© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence NO2 annual mean concentrations in building footprints, 2008 UK example, concentrations in building footprints
  12. 12. 12© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence BAU POLICY Beijing NOx from road traffic, 2014 International example, testing the effect of city policy
  13. 13. 13© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Scotland is embarking on the Clean Air For Scotland initiative. So we modelled some technology enhancements to get a feel for what they might deliver in reducing NO2 and PM10
  14. 14. 14© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence What if Scotland was a Low Emission Zone? • New air quality modelling techniques allow us to very quickly look at very large areas of the country in a single model run. For the purposes of today I modelled a high level “what if” scenario for most of Scotland which is designed to stimulate discussion around what engine technology improvement can deliver in the next decade or so • The case I’m going to show you is not concerned with detailed LEZ schemes or boundaries, but simply asks the question, what’s the best we can expect from currently available, or soon to be available engine technologies? • Baseline is the 2016 fleet mix from the DfT, including fuel use split, technology mix, vehicle weight categories, Scotland specific information where applicable. • Test case 1 involves setting all light and heavy vehicles to engine technologies which are either best currently available, or best that will soon be available (e.g. Euro 6 D) • Test case 2 asks what we could expect from a radical reduction in diesel vehicles in the light fleet (to zero!)
  15. 15. 15© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Some important clarifications… • The modelling in this talk took less than two days and was done especially for this and another talk. • It is based on openly available data so a lot of effort was avoided • This is mainly to show what can be done with modern dispersion modelling methods to get fast answers to wide ranging policy measures • A key benefit is complete consistency between towns and cities as they are in the same model run (its also really fast)
  16. 16. 16© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence What if Scotland had a single very large LEZ? Model domain • 400 million discrete points • 10m resolution • Stretches from South Ayrshire in the south west to Aberdeen in the north East • Modelled in our RapidAIR suite- run time ~150 sec • Emissions modelled in our RapidEMS module (140,000 links in the UK wide model, run time a few seconds) • In Scotland we have a ‘special’ interest in PM10, out standard is 18 µgm3
  17. 17. 17© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Emission modelling- NOx All emissions were modelled in our RapidEMS system, which uses the COPERT V coefficients in a computationally efficient manner. There are 140,000 road links in the model (though most of these are in the rest of the UK)
  18. 18. 18© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Emission modelling- PM10 All emissions were modelled in our RapidEMS system, which uses the COPERT V coefficients in a computationally efficient manner. We can calculate emissions on 1 million road links in 1 minute. There are 140,000 road links in the model (though most of these are in the rest of the UK)
  19. 19. 19© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence
  20. 20. 20© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence NO2 in 2016 – the baseline
  21. 21. 21© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence NO2 in 2016 – the baseline
  22. 22. 22© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Results at roadside- concentrations in a transect This tool in QGIS is sampling the road concentration grid from RapidAIR that match the transect
  23. 23. 23© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence NO2 cross road profile of concentrations- M74 in Glasgow baseline best available tech BAT plus no diesel LDV Exposure zone ~150m 0 80
  24. 24. 24© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence NO2 difference plot- central belt (base minus BAT) NO2 reduction ugm3 Very highest concentrations are attenuated by up to 28 ugm3, more typically roadside concentrations reduced by about 5 to 10 ugm3.
  25. 25. 25© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence NO2 results- explained • New iterations of Euro 6 are expected to deliver very substantial reductions in NOx and hence NO2 • Traffic is usually the dominant source so reductions in emissions in this sector are very apparent in overall concentrations • Hence if the new Euro standards deliver, significant reductions in NO2 should follow • Going beyond BAT towards removing diesel completely from the LDV fleet delivers more benefits, but these are quite marginal compared with “factored in” improvements that should follow Euro 6 improvements • What is remote sensing telling us about NOx emissions from the UK road fleet?
  26. 26. 26© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence NOx emissions…. new insights from remote sensing
  27. 27. 27© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence NO2 in 2016 – the baseline
  28. 28. 28© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence NO2 in 2016 – the baseline
  29. 29. 29© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence NO2 in 2016 – the baseline plus no diesel LDV
  30. 30. 30© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence PM10 cross road profile of concentrations- M74 in Glasgow baseline best available tech BAT plus no diesel LDV Line is obscured Exposure zone ~150m
  31. 31. 31© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence PM10 difference plot- central belt (base minus BAT) PM10 reduction ugm3 Very highest concentrations are attenuated by up to 5 ugm3, more typically roadside concentrations reduced by about 0.5 to 1 ugm3.
  32. 32. 32© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence PM10 results- explained • New emission standards will not deliver significant reductions in exhaust emissions compared with existing vehicles • The biggest road traffic component in future years will be tyre, brake and road wear particles (in Scotland its already 70% or more of the total). I don’t foresee a step change in the prevalence of these technologies. Electric cars still need roads, tyres and brakes after all. • Traffic is usually not as dominant a source so reductions in emissions in this sector are not as apparent in overall concentrations. • Hence even for ambitious LEZ schemes we might not expect to see much change in PM10 concentrations- though we would expect some benefit • Going beyond BAT towards removing diesel completely from the LDV fleet does not change PM10 concentrations much at all
  33. 33. 33© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence PM10 results- problems ahead for policy makers…. • The most uncertain components of PM emissions are becoming the most important • Effort is needed to improve the emission factors for brake, tyre, road wear, resuspension • The emission factors need to be localised- the same values (usually EMEP CORINAIR) are used in Athens as in Inverness • The UK as a whole needs to understand road dust resuspension better. Again, is it plausible that every city has the same dust loading per m2 of road? Rainfall varies a lot in the UK…. • In Scotland there is a particular issue with particulates. Our standard is the lowest in the world, but we understand very little about some of the main emission sources driving concentrations. Engine technologies will help NOx/NO2, particles not so much.
  34. 34. 34© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence https://www.informationisbeautifulawards.com/showcase/1614-3d-visualisation-of-air-pollution-in-glasgow http://www.trudihannah.com/#/pollutionvisualisation/ Results from a Ricardo collaboration with Trudi Hannah at Glasgow School of Art.
  35. 35. 35© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence To conclude • New modelling methods allow policy that affects large areas to be modelled in a holistic and consistent manner. Its also very time efficient, both in computation and man hours. • The case study prepared for this event suggests the following: • Plausible improvements in NOx from better vehicles has the potential to deliver quite large reductions in NO2 in our Scottish towns and cities. This is mainly because road traffic NOx is still the dominant source driving high concentrations • Going beyond BAT and removing diesel vehicles delivers additional gains but these are more marginal for NOx • The same vehicle improvements reduce PM10 as well but by a smaller amount • The reduction in PM10 is still significant given the health benefits • As exhaust emission reduce the non-exhaust component becomes dominant. It is possible therefore that Scotland could still see PM10 concentrations over the 18ugm3 threshold, with the emissions arising from brake, tyre and road particles. • Even with electrification, if material science and automotive design can’t reduce these uncontrolled releases we may still have a domestic compliance issue for PM10 in Scotland. • Localisation of emissions of NOx and PM appears to be necessary given the insights from remote sensing and the importance of non-exhaust emissions
  36. 36. 36© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Thanks scott.hamilton@ricardo.com
  37. 37. 37© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Scott Hamilton, PhD Technical Lead, Air Quality Modelling Ricardo Energy and Environment scott.hamilton@ricardo.com
  38. 38. 38© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Reserve slides
  39. 39. 39© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence Conferences and papers…. Under review…….
  40. 40. 40© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence CMAQ NO2 City RapidAir® model Neighbourhood RapidAir® model Street Level RapidAir® model National scale CMAQ model Nesting RapidAir® in CMAQ model- UK example Boundary conditions to the city scale model come from CMAQ- meteorology from WRF can be used in both for consistency
  41. 41. 41© Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo Energy & Environment in Confidence RapidAIR also includes ‘Notebooks’ • The Jupyter notebook format is fuelling something of a revolution in sharing scientific work. Jupyterlab is the latest iteration, its amazing. • We can use the technology almost as a retraceable blockchain of steps taken in a modelling project • We use the format to provide worked examples and training in using the model • The notebook has cells, each of which contains either text (as Markdown), python code, or outputs from running the code. Videos can be embedded, as can hyperlinks. • An entire workflow can be saved and shared in seconds in a completely reproducible manner Code execution Output beside the code that created it, so reproducibility is enhanced

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