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Draft National Air Quality Plan - Claire Holman

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Hear from those who are working directly with the latest policy and get an insight into the likely implications from Defra’s upcoming Air Quality Plan.

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Draft National Air Quality Plan - Claire Holman

  1. 1. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management Draft National Air Quality Plan Dr Claire Holman Brook Cottage Consultants/University College London Chair, Institute of Air Quality Management IAQM Discussion Meeting: Mitigation in the 2017 Air Quality Plan Manchester 6 June 2017
  2. 2. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management Draft National Air Quality Plan (AQP) Contents 1. Background to the Draft AQP 2. Draft Plan 3. Conclusions 2
  3. 3. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management Directive 2008/50/EC NO2 limit values: • Annual mean 40 µg/m3 • 1-hour mean 200 µg/m3 (18 hours above LV permitted per calendar year) • To be achieved by 1 January 2010 • Time extension permitted to I January 2015 if member state submits a compliant plan showing it would be achieved by then • Same LVs and date as in Directive 1999/30/EC 3
  4. 4. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management • Where limit values are exceeded Member States shall ensure that air quality plans are established to achieve the limit value. • When the deadline has passed the AQPs shall set out appropriate measures, so that the exceedance period can be kept as short as possible. The air quality plans may additionally include specific measures aiming at the protection of sensitive population groups, including children. • Annex XV provides information required in the AQP. Article 23Air Quality Plans 4
  5. 5. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management • 1-hour limit value: • Greater London • South Wales • Annual mean limit value • 37 zones exceeded LV; • 6 achieved LV in 2015 • Brighton/Worthing/Littlehampton, • Blackpool Urban Area, • Preston Urban Area • Highland Scottish Borders • Northern Ireland NO2 – non-compliance with EU limit values in 2015 Defra, 2016 5
  6. 6. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management Source Technical Report for Draft 2017 AQP Exceedences of NO2 Annual Mean Limit Value 6
  7. 7. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management • 2011 AQP: April 2015 Supreme Court declared the UK was in breach of article 13 of the Air Quality Directive (2008/50/EC). ClientEarth (No 1) vs Secretary of State "The new government, whatever is political complexion, should be left in no doubt as to the need for immediate action to address this issue.” Lord Justice Carnwath, Supreme Court judge 7
  8. 8. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management ClientEarth (No 2) -Mr Justice Garnham’s Conclusions i. the Secretary of State must aim to achieve compliance by the soonest date possible, that she must choose a route to that objective which reduces exposure as quickly as possible, and that she must take steps which mean meeting the value limits is not just possible, but likely. ii. that the Secretary of State fell into error in fixing on a projected compliance date of 2020 (and 2025 for London); iii. that the Secretary of State fell into error by adopting too optimistic a model for future emissions; iv. it would be appropriate to make a declaration that the 2015 AQP fails to comply with Article 23(1) of the Directive and Regulation 26(2) of the Air Quality Standards Regulations 2010, and an order quashing the plan. Neil Garnham Elizabeth Trusss SoS 2014-2016 8
  9. 9. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management Secretary of State to publish: • Draft modified AQP by 4 pm 24 May 2017 • Final modified AQP by 4 pm 31 July 2017 Secretary of State applied for a time extension, firstly due to the local Government elections and secondarily due to the general election. • Extension granted until 9th May • Draft AQP published 5th May (day of local election results) • Final modified plan publication date unchanged Mr Justice Garnham’s Orders Andrea Leadsom SoS from July 2016 Neil Garnham 9
  10. 10. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management 10
  11. 11. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management Causes of high nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations • In areas of concern: • Transport: 80% NOx • The largest source - diesel vehicles • Due to • the significant growth in diesel vehicle numbers • the emissions standards not delivering the expected emissions reductions. 11 Photo: Emissions Analytics
  12. 12. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management 2017 Draft AQPTechnical Report Year Baseline Non-compliant Zones 2017 37 2018 36 2019 34 2020 31 2021 22 2022 18 2023 9 2024 3 2025 3 2026 3 2027 1 2028 1 2029 1 2030 1 London, Birmingham Leeds London Includes Manchester Extracted from Table Ex. 2 in Technical Report13
  13. 13. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management • Based on latest COPERT emissions • Modelling used SL-PCM model based on 2013-PCM model • 2013-PCM model under-predicts at low concentrations; over- predicts at high concentrations. • SL-PCM only adjusts road NOx emissions, • Background unchanged (so will under-estimate future concentrations • 2015 modelling in full PCM model; 2020, 2025 and 2030 SL_PCM • Intermediate years interpolated • Final plan – new modelling including using a 2015 base year. Modelling is now more realistic BUT…
  14. 14. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management 2017 DraftAQPTechnical Report Option 1st year NO2 reduction Year Net present value 21 CAZs 8.6 µg/m3 2020 £1,100m Retrofitting buses, HGVs and black cabs 0.09 µg/m3 2019 £270m Scrappage 0.008 µg/m3 2020 -£20m ULEVs 0.008 µg/m3 2017 -£20m Motorway speed limits (70- 60 mpg Up to 2.5 µg/m3 2021 -£25m to -£32m Government buying standards 0.0005 µg/m3 2018 £0.13m Vehicle labelling 0.004 µg/m3 2018 £12m Influencing driving behaviour 0.07 µg/m3 2019 £12m 157
  15. 15. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management 2017 DraftAQPTechnical Report Measures Number of zones non- compliant zones 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Baseline 37 36 34 31 22 Charging-CAZs Same as baseline 30 9 Scrappage, Eco-driving, ULEVs, vehicle labelling, retrofit 30 22 Speed limits, Government buying standards 31 22 16 “All options, except charging CAZs, are shown to be similar to the baseline projection, bringing forward compliance in only a small number of zones where the exceedance is small. It is clear that charging CAZs have the greatest impact by bringing the majority of zones into compliance by 2021.” Technical Report p.189
  16. 16. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management • Tackling poor air quality in all its forms is a priority for government. • The aim is to achieve the statutory limit values for the whole of the UK within the shortest possible time. • The objective of the UK Government alongside the devolved administrations is to transform the UK’s most polluted cities into clean and healthy urban spaces, supporting those most directly affected and ensuring that vehicle manufacturers play their part to improve the nation’s air quality. Draft Air Quality Plan 17
  17. 17. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management Summary of main additional actions (Table 3) : England • Mandate local authorities to implement CAZs within the shortest possible time • Tackling air pollution on the English road network –work will begin immediately Wales • Consultation on proposal for a CAZ Framework for Wales within 12 months Scotland • Consultation on a draft national Low Emission Framework later in 2017 • Commitment to establish a Low Emission Zone by 2018 Draft Air Quality Plan 18
  18. 18. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management CAZ Framework • Published with the Draft AQP • Identifies that CAZs are expect to deliver: a) Immediate action to improve air quality and health by delivering the statutory NO2 limits values within the shortest possible time b) Support local growth and ambition c) Accelerate the transition to a low emission economy 19
  19. 19. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management a. Exploring innovative retrofitting technologies and new fuels b. Buying ULEVs/encouraging transport operators to do the same c. Encouraging private uptake of ULEVs via ensuring adequate charge points d. Encouraging use of pubic transport, cycling, walking park and ride schemes and car sharing e. Working with businesses/neighbouring authorities to ensure a consistent approach CAZ Framework: Examples of Non Charging Measures Technical analysis suggest these measures will not generally achieve compliance in the shortest possible time May work were there is a very small exceedence e.g. < µg/m3 20
  20. 20. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management • Non-charging CAZs – defined geographical areas uses as a focus for action to improve air quality • Charging CAZs – zones where designated vehicles are also required to pay a charge to enter or to move within the zone if they are driving a vehicle that does not meet the standard for that zone. English CAZs CAZ Class Vehicles Restricted A Buses, coaches, taxis, private hire vehicles B Class A + heavy goods vehicles C Class B + light goods/commercial vehicles, D Class C + cars, motorcycles and mopeds i.e. all vehicle types 21
  21. 21. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management Vehicle type Minimum Emission Standards Buses and coaches Euro VI Heavy goods vehicles Euro VI Vans Euro 6 (diesel) or Euro 4 (petrol) Cars Euro 6 (diesel) or Euro 4 (petrol) Motorcycles/mopeds Euro 3 Emission Standards 22
  22. 22. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management • It is for local authorities (LAs) to develop innovative local plans to achieve the limits in the shortest time possible. • If a LA can identify measures other than charging CAZ that are at least as effective these measures should be preferred. • LAs to consider all equally effective alternatives to charging zones. • A proposed CAZ will only be approved by Government, and be considered for funding support if it can show that: a. It is likely to reach legal compliance in the shortest possible time b. The effects/impacts on local residents & businesses has been assessed including disadvantaged groups and there are no unintended consequences c. Proposals that request central Government funding support demonstrate value for money Draft AQP 23
  23. 23. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management • Draft AQP should be a modified AQP not a new one • Ignores results of technical analysis (but this will be redone using a 2015 calibrated PCM model for the final plan) • Put the onus on English LAs to comply • Very vague for the devolved administrations • Provides no information on where charging CAZs will be required • Provides no confidence that the final plan will be compliant with the Directive Conclusions 24
  24. 24. Brook Cottage Consultants Ltd.: Experts in Air Quality Management V Alan Andrews New Secretary of State More Legal Action? Claire Holman E:info@brookcottage.info

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