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Greater Manchester's CAZ - Hazel Peace from JACOBS

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Hear from those who are working directly with the latest policy and get an insight into the likely implications from Defra’s upcoming Air Quality Plan.

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Greater Manchester's CAZ - Hazel Peace from JACOBS

  1. 1. www.jacobs.com | worldwide Greater Manchester’s CAZ Hazel Peace 6th June 2017
  2. 2. Agenda 1. Introduction 2. Study overview 3. CAZ considerations 4. CAZ areas 5. Emissions and AQ impacts – screening 6. More detailed modelling 7. Conclusion and thoughts 2
  3. 3. • England’s fastest growing large city • Increase in population • = Increase in road traffic – Increase in congestion – Increase in emissions – Increase in PM, NO2, CO2 – Unless modal shift… – Or zero emission vehicles Greater Manchester 2040 vision 3 GREATER MANCHESTER LOW-EMISSION STRATEGY AND AIR QUALITY ACTION PLAN PUBLIC CONSULTATION
  4. 4. • EU/UK NO2 limit/objective value – exceedance likely in 2020 • Significant impact from roads • Feasibility study to look at road related CAZ 4 Before 2040….? http://www.gmtu.gov.uk/gam_maps/
  5. 5. • WP1 – Screening  • WP2 – Refining of air quality estimates  • WP3 – Refine economics ? • WP4 – Refine health ? • WP5 – Reporting ? 5 Undertaken through work packages:
  6. 6. 6 CAZ Considerations Description Importance Administrative boundary Where is the CAZ boundary? The location of the CAZ boundary is important both in determining potential benefits and in order to determine the potential costs and enforcement methods Class (vehicle types) Which CAZ class should apply? I.e. what vehicles will be restricted within the CAZ boundary (and subsequently people and businesses)? Which vehicles will be exempt from meeting the CAZ standards when within the CAZ boundary? Which CAZ class is used affects both the potential benefits that can be derived from the CAZ and also effects the enforcement costs and other socio-economic impacts. Standards What should the minimum standards for a CAZ be? Defra have used Euro V/6 (diesel) and Euro 4 (petrol LDV) standards for different CAZ classes. The standards that are targeted will affect the actions taken to meet the CAZ requirements, with lower standards more likely to result in vehicle replacement by some (lower costs) but with lesser impact Hours of operation When will the CAZ standards need to be adhered to? There are different implications from a full-time CAZ compared to a peak-time or a day-time CAZ Daily charge How much would people / businesses have to pay to enter the CAZ boundary where their vehicle is affected and does not meet the CAZ standards? The level of charge is important as it catalyses the users’ decision making and impacts the level of benefits and costs of the CAZ Enforcement and costs How will the CAZ standard be enforced within the CAZ boundary e.g. manual or camera? Depending on the location and the class of the CAZ the enforcement options are different, but they have implications on the potential cost and the likely derived benefits
  7. 7. Potential CAZ areas being considered A (buses, coaches and taxis) Option 1A Option 2A Option 3A 7 Geographical zone 1. Manchester city centre 2. Inside the M60 3. Segregated zones based on poor AQ
  8. 8. How do you define the boundary? • To model a CAZ you need to define a boundary – a line • AQMA (red)? • NO2 exceedance area in 2020? • Political boundary? • Saturn model boundary (e.g. pink)? • Buffer zone? • Physical boundary – public understanding? • How do you reach consensus? • GETAGREEMENT EARLY! 8
  9. 9. Vehicle class and Euro standard 9 • Note – various cities across Europe have LEZ’s which include combinations of above, including cars (e.g. Germany, Lisbon) Defra CAZ class Vehicles included A Buses, coaches, taxis (Euro 6/VI) B Buses, coaches, taxis and HGVs (Euro 6/VI) C Buses, coaches, taxis, HGVs and LGVs (Euro 6/VI diesel and Euro 4 petrol) D Buses, coaches, taxis, HGVs, LGVs and cars (Euro 6/VI diesel and Euro 4 petrol)
  10. 10. Air quality benefit area city centre & M60 (road rel) Basic modelling only 10
  11. 11. Emission benefit Basic modelling only 11
  12. 12. Screening Conclusions (WP1) 12 • Class D outperforms other CAZ options for both concentrations and emissions (as expected) • Class A has more limited NOx improvement. • Limited potential for improving PM10 – not just related to emissions but brake and tyre wear • NOx road emission and concentration road contribution % reduction are broadly similar (though this could vary at street level – fleet mix). • Results for all 3 CAZ areas are broadly similar in terms of % NOx road emissions reduction.
  13. 13. Air quality dependant on: – Traffic flow data – Fleet – e.g.. % of HDV – Proportion of diesel – Age of vehicles – Estimated vs. real-world emissions? • Primary NO2 • Test cycles – NOx to NO2 conversion – Other sources How to refine AQ modelling (WP2)?
  14. 14. WP2 – Age and diesel proportions • Worked with GMP,ANPR data from cameras on key routes into city centre. • Had to be anonymised • Used neutral week • 2.5 million records per year processed! • Key parameters: fuel type, vehicle types, number plate (anonymised) 14
  15. 15. Traffic flows, % splits and emissions • Age/petrol/diesel per vehicle type rollover model – but is this really true? • Non-CAZ compliant vehicles replaced (ULEZ) with compliant • Saturn used for various cost scenarios (£1 upwards) – at £5 became cost sensitive - rerouting. • Results used to calculate emissions – using appropriate Euro fleet mixes. • Emissions fed into dispersion model along with other sources and results outputted for all scenarios. 15
  16. 16. Dispersion modelling • Primary NO2 and NOx emissions used • Other sources used within ADMS-Urban and background added • NOx to NO2 conversion within ADMS used to calculated NO2 http://www.gmtu.gov.uk/ga m_maps/ 16
  17. 17. Conclusions • Fleet mix and NO2? – Defra NOx to NO2 assumes certain fleet mix proportions – Sensitivity of pNO2 • Electric proportion - more brake & tyre wear? • What are the timescales? 17 Months 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Agreeing areas Screen options Agree detailed approach ANPR - fleet Saturn Emissions Dispersion Analysis & report
  18. 18. Thoughts 18 • How can a CAZ be used to affect modal shift? • How will a CAZ impact on vehicles outside the CAZ? • How will modal shift impact on health (e.g. more active lifestyle & lower emissions)? • How did we all get here today? – Will this change in the future and what would make you change?
  19. 19. Questions? hazel.peace@jacobs.com 19

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