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NewBase Energy News 02 October 2023 No. 1661 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
COP28 President-Designate calls on energy and hard-to-abate
industries to work together to drive decarbonisation
WAM - Amjad Saleh
Dr. Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and COP28
President-Designate, today convened a special meeting of industry leaders from the oil & gas,
cement, steel, aluminium, and heavy transportation sectors to work together to drive global
decarbonisation efforts.
“The energy transition is underway – but decarbonisation will be faster if we all work together,” Dr.
Al Jaber told participants in Abu Dhabi at the COP28 Changemakers’ Majlis: Fast-Tracking the
Energy Transition. “Cross-sector collaboration will be indispensable.”
As Dr. Al Jaber described to attendees, a “Majlis” is an Arabic term that means sitting room, or a
place where people come together to discuss shared interests. A Majlis serves an important role
both in the home and for business meetings in the UAE and the Arab world.
ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/
The Majlis was a pioneering gathering bringing together the biggest industries, energy
producers, technology, finance and investment for the first time to collaborate on fast-
tracking a just and orderly energy transition across both the supply and demand of energy.
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Taking place the day before the start of the 2023 Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition
Conference (ADIPEC 2023), the event was attended by H.H. Sheikh Hamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan;
and John Kerry, US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, and was moderated by Dr. Daniel
Yergin, Vice Chairman, S&P Global.
US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry
addressed the attendees, calling for action to eliminate methane
pollution from the energy sector by the end of this decisive
decade and urging additional ambition that recognises the
urgency of the challenge and meets the moment.
Responding to the Global Stocktake, Dr. Al Jaber stated, “We
know that we are not on track; we need to deliver a 43 percent
emission reduction by 2030. I believe we can only keep 1.5
within reach if we are willing to collaborate.”
Dr. Al Jaber highlighted that the production of oil and gas, cement, steel and aluminum account for
around a quarter of all global carbon emissions. These sectors “can collaborate to accelerate
decarbonisation by working on infrastructure, technology, policy and finance together,” he said. “The
world is watching and waiting for real, actionable progress across all sectors ─ and the energy and
hard-to-abate industries have a critical role to play.”
The Majlis event included dedicated breakout sessions to develop and drive actionable solutions to
the energy transition, focused on the themes of commercialising the hydrogen value chain; scaling
carbon capture technologies; eliminating methane from energy; increasing renewables in grids; and
biofuels as an enabler of decarbonisation.
Participants discussed how hydrogen holds the greatest promise for a fuel that will enable steel,
cement and aluminum plants around the world to eliminate their greenhouse gas emissions but
needs support to dramatically scale up.
On carbon capture and storage (CCS), they noted the growing consensus on the necessity of CCS
to meet net zero targets and discussed necessary steps to create viable commercial models.
Discussing eliminating methane, there was an acknowledgement that 20 percent of anthropogenic
methane emissions come from the oil and gas sector and determined action would form a significant
contribution to global climate action.
To increase renewables in grids, participants spoke of how the ambitious growth targeted faced
major challenges from finance, supply chain stresses, and the importance of grids, all of which
would require concerted action.
On biofuels as an enabler of decarbonisation, they noted the importance of establishing biofuels as
cost-competitive alternatives for air and road transit, particularly to hedge against disruptions in
electrification.
Speaking at the Majlis, Dr. Al Jaber said, “Technology and finance are the key to getting us from
where we are to where we need to be. And the people who can provide that technology are right
here in this room.” Dr. Al Jaber continued, “We can find ways of commercialising hydrogen,
increasing the efficiency of the electrical grid, speeding the elimination of methane, and increasing
the availability of biofuels.”
The President-Designate concluded by calling on the energy industry to play a more active role in
the energy transition.
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“For years, the energy industry has been without a seat at the climate change table,” he told
delegates. “But you can’t just ask for it. You need to earn it. And candidly, I don’t think the industry
has yet done enough to earn that seat.”
The Changemakers Majlis was a part of the wider COP28 Presidency Action Agenda to fast-track
a just and orderly energy transition by rapidly building the energy system of the future while
decarbonising the system of today.
The COP28 Presidency is preparing
further announcements on its Action
Agenda to fast track the energy transition
in the weeks ahead.
Moderating the session Dr. Daniel Yergin,
Vice Chairman, S&P Global, said “This
has proved to be a very significant
dialogue. It demonstrates the oil and gas
industry’s important and wide-ranging
contribution to the climate table. Its span
includes its depth of knowledge,
engineering and scientific capabilities,
technology and execution, mastery of global supply chains, as well as its ability to scale and deploy
technology, including, crucially, in emerging markets.”
Commenting on the roundtable, the CEO of Uganda National Oil Company, Proscovia Nabbanja
said, “In an era where sustainability is paramount, hard-to-abate industries are uniquely positioned.
Grounded in strong research, technological advancements, and innovation, we can ride on this
capability to deploy decarbonisation solutions at scale while meeting the customers' needs. As we
gather at the Changemakers’ Majlis, we must recognise that together we have the potential to adapt
and take charge in accelerating decarbonisation. Our collective efforts can pave the way for a
greener, more sustainable future, showcasing the transformative power of collaboration and
determination”.
The Chairman and CEO of Baker Hughes, Lorenzo Simonelli, said “As an energy technology
company, Baker Hughes is committed to taking energy forward, making it safer, cleaner, and more
efficient for people and the planet. Our participation at COP28 as an Associate Pathways Partner
reflects our commitment to addressing climate change and building partnerships that drive energy
security, sustainability and affordability. In 2019, we became one of the first companies in our
industry to make a public commitment to reduce our operational emissions by 50 percent by 2030
and achieve net zero by 2050. We strongly believe that solutions and technologies, in areas such
as CCUS, hydrogen, emissions abatement, and digital, can play a significant role in driving a more
sustainable future across industries, enabling us to reach our collective targets to tackle climate
change.”
The CEO of Emirates Global Aluminium, Abdulnasser Bin Kalban said, “Aluminum is an essential
material for decarbonisation economy-wide, as part of everything from electricity distribution
infrastructure to mass transit systems to solar panels. To decarbonise aluminium production itself,
we must work with other industries as many of the technical and commercial challenges are shared.
COP28 is playing an important role in bringing industries together to collaborate in the interest of
humanity’s future.”
ADIPEC 2023 is taking place from 2nd-5th October at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre and
is being held under the theme of “Decarbonising. Faster. Together.”
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Kuwait's oil exports shift from crude oil to petroleum products
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60482
Kuwait’s oil exports are shifting from crude oil to refined petroleum products following the addition
of new refining capacity, according to data in our recently updated Country Analysis Brief: Kuwait.
In June and July 2023, Kuwait exported more than 1 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum
products and liquified petroleum gas, the highest volume of products the country has exported.
By contrast, crude oil exports averaged about 1.6 million b/d in June and July, down from an average
of 1.8 million b/d in the same period of 2022.
Data source: Kpler tanker tracking data (accessed August 2023)
As of July 2023, refineries in Kuwait had the capacity to process 1.4 million b/d of crude oil, more
than double the refinery capacity in January 2021 of 600,000 b/d.
The increase in capacity comes from the new Al Zour refinery and an expansion project at existing
refineries over the past two years.
Kuwait’s new Al Zour refinery is the Middle East’s largest with a capacity of 615,000 b/d among
three units. The plant’s first crude oil distillation unit came on line in November 2022, followed by
the second in March 2023 and the third in July 2023.
The Al Zour refinery can produce significant amounts of low-sulfur fuel oil, around 220,000 b/d at
full capacity.
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Data source: Kpler tanker tracking data (accessed August 2023), FACTS Global Energy, Argus Media, Reuters
In late 2021, national refining company Kuwait National Petroleum Corp. (KNPC) completed
its Clean Fuels Project (CFP). The CFP upgraded and integrated the company’s Mina Al-Ahmadi
and Mina Abdullah refineries to be able to process petroleum products with low levels of sulfur and
nitrogen oxide. The upgrade allowed production of fuels that meet the Euro 4 and 5 standards for
products with lower emissions. The CFP increased Kuwait’s crude oil refining capacity by around
60,000 b/d.
Kuwait’s crude oil exports fell from an average of 1.9 million b/d in 2022 to less than 1.8 million b/d
for the first 7 months of 2023. By July 2023, crude oil exports dipped to 1.5 million b/d, according to
Kpler tanker tracking service.
In July 2023, Asia remained the top destination for Kuwait’s petroleum product exports, receiving
46%. However, Europe received 29% in July 2023, up significantly from 2021. In July 2021, Europe
received 11% of Kuwait’s petroleum product exports. Increased exports to Europe resulted from
Europe’s ban on imports from Russia as EU countries look to replace diesel and other products that
they used to receive from Russia.
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Pakistan's largest coal miner to boost output by over 50%
Reuters + NewBase
Faced with a crippling foreign exchange crisis, the Pakistan government is trying to preserve its
depleted foreign exchange reserves and cushion itself against geopolitical shocks
NUSA DUA, Indonesia - Pakistan's largest coal miner Sindh Engro Coal Mining Co (SECMC)
expects to boost its output by 51.3% in 2024, its Chief Executive told Reuters, as the south Asian
economy seeks to reduce imports, cut fuel costs and shore up its finances.
Faced with a crippling foreign exchange crisis, the Pakistan government is trying to preserve its
depleted foreign exchange reserves and cushion itself against geopolitical shocks.
SECMC aims to help by boosting coal production to 11.5 million tonnes in 2024, from an expected
7.6 million tonnes this year, its CEO Amir Iqbal told Reuters on Friday.
The company will seek to push power plants currently operating fully on imported coal to use 20-
25% domestically mined coal, Iqbal said.
"We have done some initial work (on imported coal-based power plants). It is very much possible,"
he said.
SECMC has funds to finance the expansion of mining for 2024, but faces challenges in boosting
output after that as Chinese lenders have stopped funding coal projects, Iqbal said.
"That is one challenge for which we are seeking support from the government of Pakistan. They
need to come up with some financial instrument so that we can continue expanding," he said.
The country of more than 230 million people depends chiefly on natural gas to produce electricity,
but has been looking to boost coal-fired output to save costs.
"The other very big area is the cement industry, which is 100% imported-coal based. If we start to
penetrate into that area, we can start to replace imported coal," Iqbal said.
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E.U: 3 key takeaways from Europe Gas and Power Markets
Short-Term Outlook Q3 2023 ( smmary )
Mauro Chavez - Research Director, European Gas and LNG market
European gas prices will remain volatile through the winter, but low gas demand could see 20%
European gas price fall in summer 2024 compared to the current forward market.
However, the market might tighten again in 2025 as LNG supply growth remains limited. Our latest
report, Europe Gas and Power Markets Short-Term Outlook Q3 2023, details the data.
1. The outlook for winter 2023 remains volatile
Europe will start the winter with storage levels at least 96% full, with also around 2 bcm available
from gas stored in Ukraine. However, the outlook for winter remains finely balanced and prone to
volatility.
We anticipate demand will be 13 bcm higher than winter 22/23, under normal weather conditions,
while limited LNG supply growth and increasing LNG demand in Asia will result in lower LNG
availability for Europe. Our expectation is that Europe will end the heating seasons with storage
levels at 47% full. While this this a lower level compared to last year (55%), it is still relatively high
and well above the 5-year average (35.3%).
Uncertainties around Norwegian production and strikes in Australia continue to add pressure to
prices. However, the biggest risk remains the weather, with current forward prices incorporating the
risk of limited supply available in the case of a cold winter.
If the winter was going to be extremely cold winter as in in 2011, we estimate demand would be
more than 20 bcm higher across Europe, risking storage levels to be as low as 26% by March 2024.
Under this extreme scenario, prices would spike well above US$20/ per million British thermal units
(mBtu).
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However, predictions of an El Niño year are increasing the likelihood of a warmer-than-usual winter
in Asia and Europe. Under this scenario, prices could be much lower than the US$15/mBtu winter
average that the current forward curve suggests
2. Summer 2024 prices could be 20% than the current forward curve
We anticipate a well-balanced European market through summer 2024.
Supply availability will be similar to that of 2023, but we anticipate further reduction in gas demand,
particularly in the power sector. The sector is set to absorb up to 60 GW of new solar/wind capacity.
And with a rebound of nuclear production in France, combined with still relatively weak electricity
demand, gas demand could be 14 bcm lower in 2024 compared to 2023.
As a result, we anticipate storage to reach 96% capacity by the end of October 2024. This could
see prices falling 20%, or $4 mBtu, throughout next summer, compared to market expectations in
the current forward price curve.
3. 2025 market dynamics and beyond
We foresee renewed pressure on the market in 2025.
Europe Gas demand* - *excluding Turkey and Ukraine
The forward market is pricing in a market softening in 2025 on the expectations that more LNG
supply will be available for Europe. However, we think this is overplayed as it will take time for supply
to ramp up, while LNG demand in Asia will increase.
As a result, we anticipate less LNG availability for Europe in 2025, compared to 2024. Additionally,
Russian exports through Ukraine will be stopping as the transit agreement expires, reducing exports
to the EU by 6 bcm, discounting an upside of 3 bcm in flows through Turkstream string 2. Our
analysis suggests that storage levels will be reaching “only” 90% by the end of October 2025. This
is a lower level compared to previous years and will result in upward pressure on prices.
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NewBase October 02 -2023 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil prices climb as risk appetite grows, focus returns to supply outlook
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices edged up on Monday, recouping some of the losses suffered at the end of last week, as
investors focused on a tight global supply outlook while a last-minute deal that avoided a U.S.
government shutdown restored risk appetite.
Brent December crude futures rose 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $92.45 a barrel by 0415 GMT after falling
90 cents on Friday. Brent November futures settled down 7 cents at $95.31 a barrel at the
contract's expiry on Friday.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 29 cents, or 0.3%, to $91.08 a barrel, after
losing 92 cents on Friday.
Both benchmarks rallied nearly 30% in the third quarter on forecasts of a wide crude supply deficit
in the fourth quarter after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended additional supply cuts to the end of the
year.
Oil price special
coverage
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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other allies, or OPEC+,
is unlikely to tweak its current oil output policy when the panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring
Committee meets on Wednesday, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters, as tighter supplies and rising
demand drive an oil price rally.
"Oil prices started the week on a strong note amid supply concerns with no policy change by OPEC+
expected, while the avoidance of a U.S. government's shutdown over the weekend gave some
relief," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.
"Still, whether or not the market will rise further will depend on future demand trends," he said.
While OPEC+ is not expected to change its output policy given the recent strength in the market,
Saudi Arabia could start to ease its additional voluntary supply cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd),
said ING analysts in a note on Monday.
"The Saudis have said that there is still concern over Chinese demand. However, PMI data out over
the weekend will provide some confidence with China's manufacturing PMI returning to expansion
territory in September for the first time since March."
Official data on Saturday showed that China's factory activity expanded for the first time in six
months in September, adding to a run of indicators suggesting the world's second-largest economy
has begun to stabilise.
However, a private-sector survey on Sunday was less encouraging, showing the country's factory
activity expanded at a slower pace in September. Indeed, a durable recovery in China's economy
is being delayed by a property slump, falling exports and high youth unemployment, raising fears of
weaker fuel demand.
Elsewhere, a last-minute decision by Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin
McCarthy to turn to Democrats to pass a short-term funding bill pushed the risk of shutdown to mid-
November, meaning the U.S. federal government's more than 4 million workers can count on
continued paychecks for now.
Amplifying supply fears, the U.S. oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by
seven to 623 in the week to Sept. 29, the lowest since February 2022, energy services firm Baker
Hughes (BKR.O) said in its closely followed report on Friday.
Brent is forecast to average $89.85 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $86.45 in 2024, according to
a survey of 42 economists compiled by Reuters on Friday.
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NewBase Specual Coverage
The Energy world –October 02 -2023
CLEAN ENERGY
Cleaner vs cheaper fuels: Asia's policy dilemma is here to
stay — for now
S&P + NewBase
Embracing a new energy order will surely come at a hefty cost for Asia, but will it be higher than the
price the region pays for its deep addiction to imported fossil fuels?
For more than 1,000 delegates who attended the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference by S&P Global
Commodity Insights in early September, a key takeaway was that Asia today is relatively better
placed to strike a balance between providing affordable and sustainable energy, as well as ensuring
energy security, compared to where it was a few years ago.
But the biggest headache for policy makers in the region will be that the pace at which Asia can
move away from fossil fuels -- oil, gas and even coal -- won't be anywhere near the speed at which
the Americas and Europe are embracing the changing energy landscape.
APPEC delegates were of the view that sustainability no doubt attracted a lot of attention just before
the coronavirus pandemic, but the themes of energy security and affordability quickly moved to
center stage when energy flows were disrupted and prices skyrocketed following the Russia-
Ukraine conflict.
"I wonder what percentage of the population in Asia would be willing to pay huge and increasing
prices for the sake of sustainability right now," Prasad K Panicker, chairperson and head of refinery
at Nayara Energy, told the conference.
Shifting trends
The conference highlighted some key trends that could reshape the fossil fuels market over the next
decade. One of the key themes that emerged was how Asia's long-term oil demand growth center
was shifting to India from China.
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China has been supporting global crude demand for the past 20 years, but in the coming 3-5 years,
its demand is expected to peak and then start to decline. The global market has to look to India or
other countries for demand resilience.
"China's demand will taper off a little but countries like India
are coming up and the demand is growing. India will
continue to require oil and gas maybe for a couple of
decades, although it would transition and move over to
renewables by that time," said APPEC speaker Vivek
Tongaonkar, finance director and CFO at Mangalore
Refinery & Petrochemicals.
The view got strong support from analysts at S&P Global
who said that China's peak oil demand would come much
earlier than India.
APPEC delegates also provided insights on Asian oil demand revival outlook, saying that China
would play a key role in aiding that recovery, even though it might fall short of earlier expectations.
In addition, tightening oil market fundamentals will also keep prices supported.
S&P Global gave out some projections, saying world oil demand was expected to increase by 2.2
million b/d in 2023, with China contributing about 942,000 b/d. Jet fuel demand, which is estimated
to rise 1 million b/d in 2023, will be the main driver of the global oil demand recovery from COVID-
19. Asia's total oil demand is forecast to increase 3.8%, or 1.39 million b/d, year on year to 38.1
million b/d in 2023.
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Picking up speed
Even though Asia's near-term oil demand is expected to remain intact, APPEC delegates said
refiners are rushing to re-draw their long-term strategies.
While renewables, hydrogen and solar
have started figuring in their ambitions, a
key area of focus for them is to raise their
petrochemical intensity to ensure their
business models remain profitable in the
event electric vehicles and other cleaner
forms of energy take a toll on demand for
transport fuels.
Therefore, going further downstream may
be the only viable option to remain relevant
over the longer term. The conference also
threw the spotlight on some key developments in Asia on the new energy space.
For instance, Vitol said its new biofuel bunker barges will be delivered to Singapore in 2024 as it
aims to capitalize on the country's growing biofuel demand. These bunker barges will be able to
deliver B30 blends to all ships, potentially up to B100 for vessels that can run on them, and even
eventually methanol.
In the sustainable aviation fuel space, APPEC speakers said that sourcing feedstock and
establishing credibility for its emission offsets claims would be key hurdles before its use in Asia can
expand in a big way.
"Neat" sustainable aviation fuel producers like Neste are exploring possibilities of expanding the
feedstock pool with prospects like novel vegetable oil and lignocellulosic biofuels. Neat SAF is a jet
fuel produced from a blend of biomass materials-based feedstock with a certain percentage of fossil-
based jet fuel.
Coming to terms with reality
Highlighting some global trends, speakers from energy majors and S&P Global highlighted that
energy supplies are on the way to becoming more secure now that the world is coming to terms
with the reality that we have transitioned into a "multiplex global order."
As far as affordability goes, after factoring in global inflation over the past decade, oil markets had
rebalanced at around $60/b in 2015 terms, which is quite incredible given the tectonic changes in
supply chains. In fact, oil is so affordable that supplies are being held back voluntarily by major
producers.
On the energy transition front, a key view that emerged at APPEC is how sustainability has also
adjusted to new global economic realities. Dependence on consensus for sustainability is being
replaced by a race for technology breakthroughs in a competitive world.
In a nutshell, competition will help to accelerate the speed and scope of energy transition, rather
than consensus on its own.
Asia to prioritize affordability in coming years as it leads oil demand growth
Asian fuel consumers, refiners and crude importers will likely prioritize affordability within the three
pillars of energy trilemma in the coming years as the region leads global oil demand growth once
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again, while demand for cleaner fuels would take longer to be established in many developing
nations, delegates said at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference 2023 organized by S&P Global
Commodity Insights.
Asia is the bright spot in terms of the world oil demand outlook perspective and the region is
expected to contribute up to 70% of the global demand growth. With fast growing economies like
India regularly posting its key monthly manufacturing PMI at a healthy level of 60 or above, crude
and fuel affordability as well as security would need to be prioritized, according to Manoj Heda,
executive director of international trade at India's Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd., or BPCL.
S&P Global Commodity Insights shared similar views on the Asia's oil demand growth trend.
For 2023 and 2024, S&P Global sees that Asia would regain its leading role by contributing to 64%
of the global oil demand growth each year, said Kang Wu, global head of demand research at S&P
Global. "Asia's net oil imports will rise to 29.1 million b/d in 2023 from 27.9 million b/d in 2022 and
27.8 million b/d in 2021."
Before the coronavirus pandemic, there was more focus on the sustainability issue but energy
security quickly took over the main stage when oil flows were disrupted during the early phases of
Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions against Moscow. However, affordability has quickly become
the top priority and it will remain the primary focus for many years to come for Asia as well as Africa,
Prasad K Panicker, chairperson & head of refinery at Nayara Energy, said during a panel discussion
at the APPEC conference Sept. 5.
"I wonder how many percentage of population in Asia would be willing to pay huge and increasing
prices for the sake of sustainability right now," Panicker said.
India for instance, it's a developing nation that strives to become a developed nation within the next
decade or two and that would only be possible when consumers and various industries have access
to affordable fuels and refined products, Panicker added.
Energy transition and wider variety of clean fuel options would eventually put downside pressure on
benchmark oil prices but only after some decades. For some of the fast growing Asian economies,
their main concern is the high prices with OPEC+ production cuts and the ongoing geopolitical
tensions posing upside risks in the near-term future, said Disathat Panyarachun, CEO of Thailand's
PTT Oil & Retail Business, or PTTOR.
Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15
Crude import, trade optimization
In an effort to cater to end-user customers' desire for affordable energy in fast-growing
economies in South Asia and Southeast Asia, finding ways to import crude oil and other
feedstocks in a most economical manner is crucial for refiners, delegates said during the
panel.
"We are trying hard to diversify our [crude import] portfolio and the ultimate goal is to reduce
our heavy reliance on Middle Eastern sour crudes," said Disathat Panyarachun, CEO of
Thailand's PTT Oil & Retail Business, or PTTOR.
Panyarachun highlighted that the Middle Eastern sour crude market has become expensive
as key Persian Gulf OPEC members continue to cut production, making the sweet crude Brent
complex economical and attractive.
The Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps, or EFS, spread -- a key indicator of Brent's
premium to the Middle Eastern benchmark -- flipped to negative at minus 19 cents/b on Aug.
24, marking the lowest spread since minus 22 cents/b on Oct. 20, 2020, S&P Global data
showed.
"This is why we are seeing more light sweet US crude flowing to Asia," said Panyarachun.
Thailand imported 108,532 b/d of WTI Midland crude from the US in the first seven months,
almost double the 58,456 b/d received during the same period a year earlier, latest data from
the Customs Department showed.
India's Nayara Energy and BPCL operate highly sophisticated refinery complexes, capable of
processing more than 130 different crude grades. Among the wide and flexible feedstock
Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16
cracking options, the Indian refiners would prioritize the most affordable crude grades that
would maximize refining economics, according to Heda and Panicker.
Indian refiners are broadly fond of Russian crude because the refining economics are highly
favourable. If margins for cracking Russian Urals falters and cost of shipping were to surge,
refiners would choose not to buy, Panicker said.
"We look at all types of crude and all the key benchmarks. Whatever that makes good
economic sense to us, we would go buy and process that," Heda said, when asked by an
audience on India's potential interest in South American crude grades.
Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17
NewBase Energy News 02-October - Issue No. 1661 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscriptions, please email us.
About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the
GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of
the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant,
advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks,
waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection
and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas
compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes.
Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation &
maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities.
Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has
participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and
panelist.
Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over
1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable
energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the
world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program
broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see
contact details above.
Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18
Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20

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COP28 President calls for energy, hard-to-abate industries collaboration

  • 1. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 02 October 2023 No. 1661 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE COP28 President-Designate calls on energy and hard-to-abate industries to work together to drive decarbonisation WAM - Amjad Saleh Dr. Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and COP28 President-Designate, today convened a special meeting of industry leaders from the oil & gas, cement, steel, aluminium, and heavy transportation sectors to work together to drive global decarbonisation efforts. “The energy transition is underway – but decarbonisation will be faster if we all work together,” Dr. Al Jaber told participants in Abu Dhabi at the COP28 Changemakers’ Majlis: Fast-Tracking the Energy Transition. “Cross-sector collaboration will be indispensable.” As Dr. Al Jaber described to attendees, a “Majlis” is an Arabic term that means sitting room, or a place where people come together to discuss shared interests. A Majlis serves an important role both in the home and for business meetings in the UAE and the Arab world. ww.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-80201019/ The Majlis was a pioneering gathering bringing together the biggest industries, energy producers, technology, finance and investment for the first time to collaborate on fast- tracking a just and orderly energy transition across both the supply and demand of energy.
  • 2. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 Taking place the day before the start of the 2023 Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition Conference (ADIPEC 2023), the event was attended by H.H. Sheikh Hamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan; and John Kerry, US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, and was moderated by Dr. Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman, S&P Global. US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry addressed the attendees, calling for action to eliminate methane pollution from the energy sector by the end of this decisive decade and urging additional ambition that recognises the urgency of the challenge and meets the moment. Responding to the Global Stocktake, Dr. Al Jaber stated, “We know that we are not on track; we need to deliver a 43 percent emission reduction by 2030. I believe we can only keep 1.5 within reach if we are willing to collaborate.” Dr. Al Jaber highlighted that the production of oil and gas, cement, steel and aluminum account for around a quarter of all global carbon emissions. These sectors “can collaborate to accelerate decarbonisation by working on infrastructure, technology, policy and finance together,” he said. “The world is watching and waiting for real, actionable progress across all sectors ─ and the energy and hard-to-abate industries have a critical role to play.” The Majlis event included dedicated breakout sessions to develop and drive actionable solutions to the energy transition, focused on the themes of commercialising the hydrogen value chain; scaling carbon capture technologies; eliminating methane from energy; increasing renewables in grids; and biofuels as an enabler of decarbonisation. Participants discussed how hydrogen holds the greatest promise for a fuel that will enable steel, cement and aluminum plants around the world to eliminate their greenhouse gas emissions but needs support to dramatically scale up. On carbon capture and storage (CCS), they noted the growing consensus on the necessity of CCS to meet net zero targets and discussed necessary steps to create viable commercial models. Discussing eliminating methane, there was an acknowledgement that 20 percent of anthropogenic methane emissions come from the oil and gas sector and determined action would form a significant contribution to global climate action. To increase renewables in grids, participants spoke of how the ambitious growth targeted faced major challenges from finance, supply chain stresses, and the importance of grids, all of which would require concerted action. On biofuels as an enabler of decarbonisation, they noted the importance of establishing biofuels as cost-competitive alternatives for air and road transit, particularly to hedge against disruptions in electrification. Speaking at the Majlis, Dr. Al Jaber said, “Technology and finance are the key to getting us from where we are to where we need to be. And the people who can provide that technology are right here in this room.” Dr. Al Jaber continued, “We can find ways of commercialising hydrogen, increasing the efficiency of the electrical grid, speeding the elimination of methane, and increasing the availability of biofuels.” The President-Designate concluded by calling on the energy industry to play a more active role in the energy transition.
  • 3. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 “For years, the energy industry has been without a seat at the climate change table,” he told delegates. “But you can’t just ask for it. You need to earn it. And candidly, I don’t think the industry has yet done enough to earn that seat.” The Changemakers Majlis was a part of the wider COP28 Presidency Action Agenda to fast-track a just and orderly energy transition by rapidly building the energy system of the future while decarbonising the system of today. The COP28 Presidency is preparing further announcements on its Action Agenda to fast track the energy transition in the weeks ahead. Moderating the session Dr. Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman, S&P Global, said “This has proved to be a very significant dialogue. It demonstrates the oil and gas industry’s important and wide-ranging contribution to the climate table. Its span includes its depth of knowledge, engineering and scientific capabilities, technology and execution, mastery of global supply chains, as well as its ability to scale and deploy technology, including, crucially, in emerging markets.” Commenting on the roundtable, the CEO of Uganda National Oil Company, Proscovia Nabbanja said, “In an era where sustainability is paramount, hard-to-abate industries are uniquely positioned. Grounded in strong research, technological advancements, and innovation, we can ride on this capability to deploy decarbonisation solutions at scale while meeting the customers' needs. As we gather at the Changemakers’ Majlis, we must recognise that together we have the potential to adapt and take charge in accelerating decarbonisation. Our collective efforts can pave the way for a greener, more sustainable future, showcasing the transformative power of collaboration and determination”. The Chairman and CEO of Baker Hughes, Lorenzo Simonelli, said “As an energy technology company, Baker Hughes is committed to taking energy forward, making it safer, cleaner, and more efficient for people and the planet. Our participation at COP28 as an Associate Pathways Partner reflects our commitment to addressing climate change and building partnerships that drive energy security, sustainability and affordability. In 2019, we became one of the first companies in our industry to make a public commitment to reduce our operational emissions by 50 percent by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2050. We strongly believe that solutions and technologies, in areas such as CCUS, hydrogen, emissions abatement, and digital, can play a significant role in driving a more sustainable future across industries, enabling us to reach our collective targets to tackle climate change.” The CEO of Emirates Global Aluminium, Abdulnasser Bin Kalban said, “Aluminum is an essential material for decarbonisation economy-wide, as part of everything from electricity distribution infrastructure to mass transit systems to solar panels. To decarbonise aluminium production itself, we must work with other industries as many of the technical and commercial challenges are shared. COP28 is playing an important role in bringing industries together to collaborate in the interest of humanity’s future.” ADIPEC 2023 is taking place from 2nd-5th October at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre and is being held under the theme of “Decarbonising. Faster. Together.”
  • 4. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 Kuwait's oil exports shift from crude oil to petroleum products https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60482 Kuwait’s oil exports are shifting from crude oil to refined petroleum products following the addition of new refining capacity, according to data in our recently updated Country Analysis Brief: Kuwait. In June and July 2023, Kuwait exported more than 1 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum products and liquified petroleum gas, the highest volume of products the country has exported. By contrast, crude oil exports averaged about 1.6 million b/d in June and July, down from an average of 1.8 million b/d in the same period of 2022. Data source: Kpler tanker tracking data (accessed August 2023) As of July 2023, refineries in Kuwait had the capacity to process 1.4 million b/d of crude oil, more than double the refinery capacity in January 2021 of 600,000 b/d. The increase in capacity comes from the new Al Zour refinery and an expansion project at existing refineries over the past two years. Kuwait’s new Al Zour refinery is the Middle East’s largest with a capacity of 615,000 b/d among three units. The plant’s first crude oil distillation unit came on line in November 2022, followed by the second in March 2023 and the third in July 2023. The Al Zour refinery can produce significant amounts of low-sulfur fuel oil, around 220,000 b/d at full capacity.
  • 5. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Data source: Kpler tanker tracking data (accessed August 2023), FACTS Global Energy, Argus Media, Reuters In late 2021, national refining company Kuwait National Petroleum Corp. (KNPC) completed its Clean Fuels Project (CFP). The CFP upgraded and integrated the company’s Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah refineries to be able to process petroleum products with low levels of sulfur and nitrogen oxide. The upgrade allowed production of fuels that meet the Euro 4 and 5 standards for products with lower emissions. The CFP increased Kuwait’s crude oil refining capacity by around 60,000 b/d. Kuwait’s crude oil exports fell from an average of 1.9 million b/d in 2022 to less than 1.8 million b/d for the first 7 months of 2023. By July 2023, crude oil exports dipped to 1.5 million b/d, according to Kpler tanker tracking service. In July 2023, Asia remained the top destination for Kuwait’s petroleum product exports, receiving 46%. However, Europe received 29% in July 2023, up significantly from 2021. In July 2021, Europe received 11% of Kuwait’s petroleum product exports. Increased exports to Europe resulted from Europe’s ban on imports from Russia as EU countries look to replace diesel and other products that they used to receive from Russia.
  • 6. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 Pakistan's largest coal miner to boost output by over 50% Reuters + NewBase Faced with a crippling foreign exchange crisis, the Pakistan government is trying to preserve its depleted foreign exchange reserves and cushion itself against geopolitical shocks NUSA DUA, Indonesia - Pakistan's largest coal miner Sindh Engro Coal Mining Co (SECMC) expects to boost its output by 51.3% in 2024, its Chief Executive told Reuters, as the south Asian economy seeks to reduce imports, cut fuel costs and shore up its finances. Faced with a crippling foreign exchange crisis, the Pakistan government is trying to preserve its depleted foreign exchange reserves and cushion itself against geopolitical shocks. SECMC aims to help by boosting coal production to 11.5 million tonnes in 2024, from an expected 7.6 million tonnes this year, its CEO Amir Iqbal told Reuters on Friday. The company will seek to push power plants currently operating fully on imported coal to use 20- 25% domestically mined coal, Iqbal said. "We have done some initial work (on imported coal-based power plants). It is very much possible," he said. SECMC has funds to finance the expansion of mining for 2024, but faces challenges in boosting output after that as Chinese lenders have stopped funding coal projects, Iqbal said. "That is one challenge for which we are seeking support from the government of Pakistan. They need to come up with some financial instrument so that we can continue expanding," he said. The country of more than 230 million people depends chiefly on natural gas to produce electricity, but has been looking to boost coal-fired output to save costs. "The other very big area is the cement industry, which is 100% imported-coal based. If we start to penetrate into that area, we can start to replace imported coal," Iqbal said.
  • 7. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 E.U: 3 key takeaways from Europe Gas and Power Markets Short-Term Outlook Q3 2023 ( smmary ) Mauro Chavez - Research Director, European Gas and LNG market European gas prices will remain volatile through the winter, but low gas demand could see 20% European gas price fall in summer 2024 compared to the current forward market. However, the market might tighten again in 2025 as LNG supply growth remains limited. Our latest report, Europe Gas and Power Markets Short-Term Outlook Q3 2023, details the data. 1. The outlook for winter 2023 remains volatile Europe will start the winter with storage levels at least 96% full, with also around 2 bcm available from gas stored in Ukraine. However, the outlook for winter remains finely balanced and prone to volatility. We anticipate demand will be 13 bcm higher than winter 22/23, under normal weather conditions, while limited LNG supply growth and increasing LNG demand in Asia will result in lower LNG availability for Europe. Our expectation is that Europe will end the heating seasons with storage levels at 47% full. While this this a lower level compared to last year (55%), it is still relatively high and well above the 5-year average (35.3%). Uncertainties around Norwegian production and strikes in Australia continue to add pressure to prices. However, the biggest risk remains the weather, with current forward prices incorporating the risk of limited supply available in the case of a cold winter. If the winter was going to be extremely cold winter as in in 2011, we estimate demand would be more than 20 bcm higher across Europe, risking storage levels to be as low as 26% by March 2024. Under this extreme scenario, prices would spike well above US$20/ per million British thermal units (mBtu).
  • 8. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 However, predictions of an El Niño year are increasing the likelihood of a warmer-than-usual winter in Asia and Europe. Under this scenario, prices could be much lower than the US$15/mBtu winter average that the current forward curve suggests 2. Summer 2024 prices could be 20% than the current forward curve We anticipate a well-balanced European market through summer 2024. Supply availability will be similar to that of 2023, but we anticipate further reduction in gas demand, particularly in the power sector. The sector is set to absorb up to 60 GW of new solar/wind capacity. And with a rebound of nuclear production in France, combined with still relatively weak electricity demand, gas demand could be 14 bcm lower in 2024 compared to 2023. As a result, we anticipate storage to reach 96% capacity by the end of October 2024. This could see prices falling 20%, or $4 mBtu, throughout next summer, compared to market expectations in the current forward price curve. 3. 2025 market dynamics and beyond We foresee renewed pressure on the market in 2025. Europe Gas demand* - *excluding Turkey and Ukraine The forward market is pricing in a market softening in 2025 on the expectations that more LNG supply will be available for Europe. However, we think this is overplayed as it will take time for supply to ramp up, while LNG demand in Asia will increase. As a result, we anticipate less LNG availability for Europe in 2025, compared to 2024. Additionally, Russian exports through Ukraine will be stopping as the transit agreement expires, reducing exports to the EU by 6 bcm, discounting an upside of 3 bcm in flows through Turkstream string 2. Our analysis suggests that storage levels will be reaching “only” 90% by the end of October 2025. This is a lower level compared to previous years and will result in upward pressure on prices.
  • 9. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 NewBase October 02 -2023 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Oil prices climb as risk appetite grows, focus returns to supply outlook Reuters + NewBase Oil prices edged up on Monday, recouping some of the losses suffered at the end of last week, as investors focused on a tight global supply outlook while a last-minute deal that avoided a U.S. government shutdown restored risk appetite. Brent December crude futures rose 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $92.45 a barrel by 0415 GMT after falling 90 cents on Friday. Brent November futures settled down 7 cents at $95.31 a barrel at the contract's expiry on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 29 cents, or 0.3%, to $91.08 a barrel, after losing 92 cents on Friday. Both benchmarks rallied nearly 30% in the third quarter on forecasts of a wide crude supply deficit in the fourth quarter after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended additional supply cuts to the end of the year. Oil price special coverage
  • 10. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other allies, or OPEC+, is unlikely to tweak its current oil output policy when the panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meets on Wednesday, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters, as tighter supplies and rising demand drive an oil price rally. "Oil prices started the week on a strong note amid supply concerns with no policy change by OPEC+ expected, while the avoidance of a U.S. government's shutdown over the weekend gave some relief," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities. "Still, whether or not the market will rise further will depend on future demand trends," he said. While OPEC+ is not expected to change its output policy given the recent strength in the market, Saudi Arabia could start to ease its additional voluntary supply cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd), said ING analysts in a note on Monday. "The Saudis have said that there is still concern over Chinese demand. However, PMI data out over the weekend will provide some confidence with China's manufacturing PMI returning to expansion territory in September for the first time since March." Official data on Saturday showed that China's factory activity expanded for the first time in six months in September, adding to a run of indicators suggesting the world's second-largest economy has begun to stabilise. However, a private-sector survey on Sunday was less encouraging, showing the country's factory activity expanded at a slower pace in September. Indeed, a durable recovery in China's economy is being delayed by a property slump, falling exports and high youth unemployment, raising fears of weaker fuel demand. Elsewhere, a last-minute decision by Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy to turn to Democrats to pass a short-term funding bill pushed the risk of shutdown to mid- November, meaning the U.S. federal government's more than 4 million workers can count on continued paychecks for now. Amplifying supply fears, the U.S. oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by seven to 623 in the week to Sept. 29, the lowest since February 2022, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR.O) said in its closely followed report on Friday. Brent is forecast to average $89.85 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $86.45 in 2024, according to a survey of 42 economists compiled by Reuters on Friday.
  • 11. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 NewBase Specual Coverage The Energy world –October 02 -2023 CLEAN ENERGY Cleaner vs cheaper fuels: Asia's policy dilemma is here to stay — for now S&P + NewBase Embracing a new energy order will surely come at a hefty cost for Asia, but will it be higher than the price the region pays for its deep addiction to imported fossil fuels? For more than 1,000 delegates who attended the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference by S&P Global Commodity Insights in early September, a key takeaway was that Asia today is relatively better placed to strike a balance between providing affordable and sustainable energy, as well as ensuring energy security, compared to where it was a few years ago. But the biggest headache for policy makers in the region will be that the pace at which Asia can move away from fossil fuels -- oil, gas and even coal -- won't be anywhere near the speed at which the Americas and Europe are embracing the changing energy landscape. APPEC delegates were of the view that sustainability no doubt attracted a lot of attention just before the coronavirus pandemic, but the themes of energy security and affordability quickly moved to center stage when energy flows were disrupted and prices skyrocketed following the Russia- Ukraine conflict. "I wonder what percentage of the population in Asia would be willing to pay huge and increasing prices for the sake of sustainability right now," Prasad K Panicker, chairperson and head of refinery at Nayara Energy, told the conference. Shifting trends The conference highlighted some key trends that could reshape the fossil fuels market over the next decade. One of the key themes that emerged was how Asia's long-term oil demand growth center was shifting to India from China.
  • 12. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 China has been supporting global crude demand for the past 20 years, but in the coming 3-5 years, its demand is expected to peak and then start to decline. The global market has to look to India or other countries for demand resilience. "China's demand will taper off a little but countries like India are coming up and the demand is growing. India will continue to require oil and gas maybe for a couple of decades, although it would transition and move over to renewables by that time," said APPEC speaker Vivek Tongaonkar, finance director and CFO at Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals. The view got strong support from analysts at S&P Global who said that China's peak oil demand would come much earlier than India. APPEC delegates also provided insights on Asian oil demand revival outlook, saying that China would play a key role in aiding that recovery, even though it might fall short of earlier expectations. In addition, tightening oil market fundamentals will also keep prices supported. S&P Global gave out some projections, saying world oil demand was expected to increase by 2.2 million b/d in 2023, with China contributing about 942,000 b/d. Jet fuel demand, which is estimated to rise 1 million b/d in 2023, will be the main driver of the global oil demand recovery from COVID- 19. Asia's total oil demand is forecast to increase 3.8%, or 1.39 million b/d, year on year to 38.1 million b/d in 2023.
  • 13. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 Picking up speed Even though Asia's near-term oil demand is expected to remain intact, APPEC delegates said refiners are rushing to re-draw their long-term strategies. While renewables, hydrogen and solar have started figuring in their ambitions, a key area of focus for them is to raise their petrochemical intensity to ensure their business models remain profitable in the event electric vehicles and other cleaner forms of energy take a toll on demand for transport fuels. Therefore, going further downstream may be the only viable option to remain relevant over the longer term. The conference also threw the spotlight on some key developments in Asia on the new energy space. For instance, Vitol said its new biofuel bunker barges will be delivered to Singapore in 2024 as it aims to capitalize on the country's growing biofuel demand. These bunker barges will be able to deliver B30 blends to all ships, potentially up to B100 for vessels that can run on them, and even eventually methanol. In the sustainable aviation fuel space, APPEC speakers said that sourcing feedstock and establishing credibility for its emission offsets claims would be key hurdles before its use in Asia can expand in a big way. "Neat" sustainable aviation fuel producers like Neste are exploring possibilities of expanding the feedstock pool with prospects like novel vegetable oil and lignocellulosic biofuels. Neat SAF is a jet fuel produced from a blend of biomass materials-based feedstock with a certain percentage of fossil- based jet fuel. Coming to terms with reality Highlighting some global trends, speakers from energy majors and S&P Global highlighted that energy supplies are on the way to becoming more secure now that the world is coming to terms with the reality that we have transitioned into a "multiplex global order." As far as affordability goes, after factoring in global inflation over the past decade, oil markets had rebalanced at around $60/b in 2015 terms, which is quite incredible given the tectonic changes in supply chains. In fact, oil is so affordable that supplies are being held back voluntarily by major producers. On the energy transition front, a key view that emerged at APPEC is how sustainability has also adjusted to new global economic realities. Dependence on consensus for sustainability is being replaced by a race for technology breakthroughs in a competitive world. In a nutshell, competition will help to accelerate the speed and scope of energy transition, rather than consensus on its own. Asia to prioritize affordability in coming years as it leads oil demand growth Asian fuel consumers, refiners and crude importers will likely prioritize affordability within the three pillars of energy trilemma in the coming years as the region leads global oil demand growth once
  • 14. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 again, while demand for cleaner fuels would take longer to be established in many developing nations, delegates said at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference 2023 organized by S&P Global Commodity Insights. Asia is the bright spot in terms of the world oil demand outlook perspective and the region is expected to contribute up to 70% of the global demand growth. With fast growing economies like India regularly posting its key monthly manufacturing PMI at a healthy level of 60 or above, crude and fuel affordability as well as security would need to be prioritized, according to Manoj Heda, executive director of international trade at India's Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd., or BPCL. S&P Global Commodity Insights shared similar views on the Asia's oil demand growth trend. For 2023 and 2024, S&P Global sees that Asia would regain its leading role by contributing to 64% of the global oil demand growth each year, said Kang Wu, global head of demand research at S&P Global. "Asia's net oil imports will rise to 29.1 million b/d in 2023 from 27.9 million b/d in 2022 and 27.8 million b/d in 2021." Before the coronavirus pandemic, there was more focus on the sustainability issue but energy security quickly took over the main stage when oil flows were disrupted during the early phases of Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions against Moscow. However, affordability has quickly become the top priority and it will remain the primary focus for many years to come for Asia as well as Africa, Prasad K Panicker, chairperson & head of refinery at Nayara Energy, said during a panel discussion at the APPEC conference Sept. 5. "I wonder how many percentage of population in Asia would be willing to pay huge and increasing prices for the sake of sustainability right now," Panicker said. India for instance, it's a developing nation that strives to become a developed nation within the next decade or two and that would only be possible when consumers and various industries have access to affordable fuels and refined products, Panicker added. Energy transition and wider variety of clean fuel options would eventually put downside pressure on benchmark oil prices but only after some decades. For some of the fast growing Asian economies, their main concern is the high prices with OPEC+ production cuts and the ongoing geopolitical tensions posing upside risks in the near-term future, said Disathat Panyarachun, CEO of Thailand's PTT Oil & Retail Business, or PTTOR.
  • 15. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 Crude import, trade optimization In an effort to cater to end-user customers' desire for affordable energy in fast-growing economies in South Asia and Southeast Asia, finding ways to import crude oil and other feedstocks in a most economical manner is crucial for refiners, delegates said during the panel. "We are trying hard to diversify our [crude import] portfolio and the ultimate goal is to reduce our heavy reliance on Middle Eastern sour crudes," said Disathat Panyarachun, CEO of Thailand's PTT Oil & Retail Business, or PTTOR. Panyarachun highlighted that the Middle Eastern sour crude market has become expensive as key Persian Gulf OPEC members continue to cut production, making the sweet crude Brent complex economical and attractive. The Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps, or EFS, spread -- a key indicator of Brent's premium to the Middle Eastern benchmark -- flipped to negative at minus 19 cents/b on Aug. 24, marking the lowest spread since minus 22 cents/b on Oct. 20, 2020, S&P Global data showed. "This is why we are seeing more light sweet US crude flowing to Asia," said Panyarachun. Thailand imported 108,532 b/d of WTI Midland crude from the US in the first seven months, almost double the 58,456 b/d received during the same period a year earlier, latest data from the Customs Department showed. India's Nayara Energy and BPCL operate highly sophisticated refinery complexes, capable of processing more than 130 different crude grades. Among the wide and flexible feedstock
  • 16. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 cracking options, the Indian refiners would prioritize the most affordable crude grades that would maximize refining economics, according to Heda and Panicker. Indian refiners are broadly fond of Russian crude because the refining economics are highly favourable. If margins for cracking Russian Urals falters and cost of shipping were to surge, refiners would choose not to buy, Panicker said. "We look at all types of crude and all the key benchmarks. Whatever that makes good economic sense to us, we would go buy and process that," Heda said, when asked by an audience on India's potential interest in South American crude grades.
  • 17. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 NewBase Energy News 02-October - Issue No. 1661 call on +971504822502, UAE The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscriptions, please email us. About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b Mobile: +971504822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S. Universities. Currently working as self leading external Energy consultant for the GCC area via many leading Energy Services companies. Khaled is the Founder of the NewBase Energy news articles issues, Khaled is an international consultant, advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks, waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East, Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities & gas compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes. Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation & maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities. Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and panelist. Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with over 1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable energy, waste management, plant Automation IA and environmental sustainability in different parts of the world. Khaled has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see contact details above.
  • 18. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18
  • 19. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19
  • 20. Copyright © 2023 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavors have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20