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POLICY COMPASS
OPEN DATA DRIVEN POLICYANALYSIS AND IMPACT
EVALUATION
Dr. Sotiris Koussouris
Decision Support Systems Labor...
Evaluating Policy Making ....
• Which metrics?
• For which kind of applications?
• How do we exactly interpret concepts li...
The Social Indicators Zoo
31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece
Aggregate
(summary)
indicators
• e.g....
Issues on the use of indicators
• Institutionalization: setup routine procedures and practices to ensure
the continuing ex...
A methodological framework of indicator development
[Coombes, Wong, 1994]
31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloni...
How can Policy Compass contribute?
• "Open data" movement and the "social computing" capabilities of
today open a fantasti...
The Problem
• Internet has evolved into a rich source
for information but also to an
instrument of spreading misinformatio...
Policy Compass: Overview
A research prototype of an easy-to-use, highly visual and intuitive tool for:
31 August 2015 eGov...
Overview of Main Concepts
31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece
Policy
Compass
Online
Deliberation
an...
Pillar I: Prosperity Indexes
• Prosperity metrics capture the level of welfare and quality of life in a
given region or so...
Pillar II: Open Data
• Open and unrestricted access to large scale data sets is essential for
political engagement and sci...
Pillar III: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
• FCMs provide a well-founded, general-purpose and intuitive method for
modelling and sim...
Pillar IV: Argumentation Technology
• Argumentation support systems are computer software for helping people
participate i...
Pillar V: Deliberation Platforms and Social Media
• Deliberation platforms incarnate the efforts taken by government
agenc...
Use Case Scenarios @ The Policy Compass “workflow”
31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece
Policy
Monit...
Example of an FCM regarding Drug Phenomenon
10 February 2015 Policy Compass Plenary Meeting, Berlin, Germany 16
Deaths from Drugs vs. Drug Law Offences
31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece
http://alpha.policycomp...
Lessons Learnt
• There exists a growing concern on the limits of mesuring societal welfare
with GDP-like metrics. GDP alth...
www.PolicyCompass.eu
www.twitter.com/PolicyCompassEU
www.facebook.com/PolicyCompass
PolicyCompass
Thank you!
Dr. Sotiris K...
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EGOV / ePart 2015 - Policy Compass Workshop Presentation

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EGOV / ePart 2015 - Policy Compass Workshop Presentation

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EGOV / ePart 2015 - Policy Compass Workshop Presentation

  1. 1. POLICY COMPASS OPEN DATA DRIVEN POLICYANALYSIS AND IMPACT EVALUATION Dr. Sotiris Koussouris Decision Support Systems Laboratory - DSSLab National Technical University of Athens - NTUA 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece
  2. 2. Evaluating Policy Making .... • Which metrics? • For which kind of applications? • How do we exactly interpret concepts like • Quality of life • Prosperity • Performance measurement 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece ?
  3. 3. The Social Indicators Zoo 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece Aggregate (summary) indicators • e.g. GDP Composite Indicators Headline Indicators • Sustainability Indicators International, National, Regional and Local indicators
  4. 4. Issues on the use of indicators • Institutionalization: setup routine procedures and practices to ensure the continuing existence of an indicator and to legitimize the method and concept of the measure. (Drawbacks identified) • Avoiding bias: indicators should be produced by professional statistical agencies that have a strong awareness of policy issues, without having responsibility for them. • Maintaining the sensitive balance between (global) standardization and local democracy (identifying the relevant measure to the specific local circumstances) 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece
  5. 5. A methodological framework of indicator development [Coombes, Wong, 1994] 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece Step 1: Conceptual consolidation Clarifying the concept to be represented by the analysis Step 2: Analytical Structuring Providing an analytical framework within which key factors will be analysed Step 3: Identification of Indicators Translation of key factors identified in step 2 into specific measurable indicators Step 4: Synthesis of indicator values Synthesizing the identified indicators into composite index/indices or into analytical summary
  6. 6. How can Policy Compass contribute? • "Open data" movement and the "social computing" capabilities of today open a fantastic observatory of experimentation with (and for) Social Indicators • Assess the limits of “causal analysis” in policy making, combining indicators with causal models • Assess the feasibility of assisting policy design and decision- making with quantitative handles (Social Indicators) at the global & local level • Evaluate the ramifications and the consequences of mixing the previous items with eGov techniques, ePart tools & Social Media. 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece
  7. 7. The Problem • Internet has evolved into a rich source for information but also to an instrument of spreading misinformation and propaganda • Lack of consensus about a suitable metric for measuring progress • Difficulty of objectively assessing the impacts of government policies The Proposed Approach  Open Public Data  Prosperity Indicators  Fuzzy Cognitive Maps  Argumentation Technology  Deliberation Platforms and Social Media The Context 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece Improve the quality and transparency of the policy analysis and evaluation phases of the policy cycle for a variety of stakeholders, ranging from citizens to policy makers Agenda Setting Analysis Adoption Implementation/ Monitoring Policy cycle
  8. 8. Policy Compass: Overview A research prototype of an easy-to-use, highly visual and intuitive tool for: 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece Metrics • Constructing policy metrics from open data sources. Charts • Generating graphs and charts visualizing metrics Annotat ions • Annotating graphs and charts with events. FCM • Constructing causal models as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM). Web2.0 • Sharing and debating in Web2.0 Argume ntation • Summarizing and visualizing the debates in argument maps
  9. 9. Overview of Main Concepts 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece Policy Compass Online Deliberation and Argument Mapping Policy Analysis Policy Monitoring and Evaluation
  10. 10. Pillar I: Prosperity Indexes • Prosperity metrics capture the level of welfare and quality of life in a given region or society. • Prosperity is a vague and subjective concept with essential psychological, social and economic aspects. • There is no consensus about how to objectively measure prosperity • Indicators of economic growth: • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) • Genuine Progress Index (GPI) • Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) • GINI Index • Alternatives: • Human Development Index (HDI) • Legatum Prosperity Index • “Healthy life years statistics” by Eurostat 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece
  11. 11. Pillar II: Open Data • Open and unrestricted access to large scale data sets is essential for political engagement and scientific research • Available large scale data sets have nowadays their own self- contained existence rules. • Micro-data can be used to construct new indicators of multifaceted nature. • Sources of micro-data: • Eurobarometer surveys • European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) by Eurostat • Urban Audit (the European cities Eurostat) 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece
  12. 12. Pillar III: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps • FCMs provide a well-founded, general-purpose and intuitive method for modelling and simulating relationships between variables. • An FCM is a fuzzy directed graph of nodes and edges, where nodes represent fuzzy concepts, describing behavioral characteristics of a system that occur to some degree, and directed edges represent the causal relationships among these concepts. 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece • The graph edges are weighted by a real value from the interval [-1, 1], which expresses the strength of the relation between two concepts. • FCMs have been widely used to model and simulate policies and their effects.
  13. 13. Pillar IV: Argumentation Technology • Argumentation support systems are computer software for helping people participate in various kinds of goal-directed dialogues in which arguments are exchanged. • The idea of using argumentation support systems for e-Participation can be traced back at least to Horst Rittel’s pioneering work in the early 1970s who used visual maps of arguments, to help people collaborate and find solutions to what he called “wicked problems”. • “Wicked problems” have no algorithmic, scientific or objectively optimal solutions for a variety of reasons, including the lack of consensus among stakeholders about utilities and values. • Typically, e-Participation projects make use of generic groupware systems (e.g. discussion fora, online surveys, etc.) not providing though specific technical support for argumentation. 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece
  14. 14. Pillar V: Deliberation Platforms and Social Media • Deliberation platforms incarnate the efforts taken by government agencies, to increase citizens’ engagement in their decision and policy making processes. • The first wave of deliberation platforms has witnessed extensive information on government activities, decisions, plans and policies, the proliferation of e-voting and e-consultation spaces, along with various types of e-fora. • Still, the first generation of deliberation platforms did not meet the original expectations. • The advent of Web 2.0 tools has created a more vivid environment and the popularity of the social media has set a new battlefield for the concept of e-Participation. 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece
  15. 15. Use Case Scenarios @ The Policy Compass “workflow” 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece Policy Monitoring and Evaluation Data Discovery and Processing Metrics Definition Metrics Calculation and Visualization Graphs Annotation Seeking further explanation of policy impacts Sharing Knowledge and Results Policy Analysis Discovery of Open Data related to Policies Creating or Refining Causal Networks Turning Causal Networks to FCMs FCMs Simulation and Impacts Visualization Sharing Knowledge and Results Online Deliberation and Argument Mapping Initiation of /Participation in Deliberations Transforming Structured Discussions into Argument Maps Navigation through Argument Maps
  16. 16. Example of an FCM regarding Drug Phenomenon 10 February 2015 Policy Compass Plenary Meeting, Berlin, Germany 16
  17. 17. Deaths from Drugs vs. Drug Law Offences 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece http://alpha.policycompass.eu Drug Mortalities Drug Law Offences
  18. 18. Lessons Learnt • There exists a growing concern on the limits of mesuring societal welfare with GDP-like metrics. GDP although very successful, is not able to derive deep results on many aspects of everyday life. • It makes perfect sense to attempt constructing aggregate, headline or composite indicators, to measure important social phenomena at the regional /local level. • There do not exist ‘objective’ or ‘neutral’ indicators of any kind. One should not focus on constructing objective indicators, but rather useful ones. • Open Data calls for a broad experimentation on the calculation and exploitation of indicators, and is definitely interesting scientifically and will provide useful "social" feedback. 31 August 2015 eGov Conference 2015 - Thessaloniki, Greece
  19. 19. www.PolicyCompass.eu www.twitter.com/PolicyCompassEU www.facebook.com/PolicyCompass PolicyCompass Thank you! Dr. Sotiris Koussouris Decision Support Systems Laboratory - DSSLab National Technical University of Athens - NTUA skous@me.com

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