New base february 15 2022 energy news issue - 1487 by khaled al awadi

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NewBase Energy News 15 February 2022 No. 1487 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
U.A.E: Masdar and Azelio to launch thermal energy storage
Trade Arabia + NewBase
Masdar, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, have joined forces with Sweden's Azelio,
an energy storage company specialist, to launch an innovative research and development (R&D)
project that will demonstrate 24/7 affordable clean energy utilisation at Masdar City in Abu Dhabi.
The project is part of a three-party research and development agreement.
The Azelio storage system is now officially in operation with solar photovoltaic (PV) panels and
enables renewable and cost-efficient electricity 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
The system will undergo extensive testing and demonstration at the Masdar Institute Solar Platform
(MISP), in a desert environment that provides ideal solar conditions to generate full daily cycles of
clean energy in combination with solar PV.
Dr Nicolas Calvet, Assistant Professor, Mechanical Engineering, and Founder & Chair of the MISP
at Khalifa University, said: "The Khalifa University's Masdar Institute Solar Platform provides a
convergence of renewable energy research, development and demonstration, and serves as a
foundation for the UAE's ambition to achieve world-leading innovation in clean and renewable
energy. The Azelio demonstration project is our flagship project and a success story for the MISP."
Over the next 12 months, Khalifa University researchers will continuously operate Azelio's electrical,
thermal energy storage system, collecting and analysing the data while independently validating the
system. At the end of the year, Khalifa University will report the system's performance in the desert
environment.

The system's storage units will be demonstrated and evaluated on several criteria, including
supplying renewable electricity round-the-clock to a system for atmospheric water generation that
captures humidity and condensates it to usable water.
The capabilities of Azelio's technology represent an important part of the renewable transition by
making sustainable energy from, for example, cost-effective solar PV available at all hours of the
day.
Masdar City Executive Director Abdulla Balalaa said: "We are committed to facilitating R&D projects
that bring ground-breaking new technologies to the market and positively contribute to regional and
global energy security."
"Azelio's TES.POD system is another excellent example of what collaboration and innovation can
achieve. Developing technologies that both protect and guarantee a constant, secure, and
affordable source of electricity is fundamental and this project is set to bring us closer to that goal,"
observed Balalaa.
Azelio's energy storage TES.POD stores energy as heat in a metal alloy made from recycled
aluminium and silicon. The heat from the storage is transferred to a Stirling engine that enables a
supply of electricity and usable heat on demand at all hours of the day, without emissions and at an
affordable price. The system is scalable and competitive from 0.1 to 100 MWe.
Azelio CEO and President Jonas Eklind said: "The strong position and deep knowledge in
renewable energy of Masdar and Khalifa University make the MISP platform a perfect place to
showcase and test our technology."
"We look forward to demonstrating our TES.POD together with other ground-breaking solutions and
taking further steps towards a global establishment of the solution," he added.

U.A.E: Dewa boosts Hassyan plant capacity By adding 1200MW
TradeArabia News Service + NewBase
Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) has confirmed that the current production capacity of
Hassyan Power Complex has reached 1,200 megawatts (MW), using the Independent Power
Producer (IPP) model.
A further 600 MW will be added in Q4 of 2022 and an additional 600 MW will be
added by Q3 of 2023, thus taking its total capacity to 2,400 MW.
According to Dewa, the Hassyan Power Complex was initially designed and built-for-purpose as a
dual-fuel plant with the ability to operate full-time on both natural gas and clean coal. It now relies
only on natural gas.
The new complex adds to the Jebel Ali Power Plant and Water Desalination Complex, as one of the
key pillars to providing Dubai with electricity and water services according to the highest standards
of reliability, efficiency, and quality. Jebel Ali has a total production capacity of 9,547MW of
electricity.
Dewa’s total production capacity is now 13,417MW. This includes 1,527MW of renewable energy
from the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.
"The complex has adopted the latest technologies in energy production; the plant’s turbines were
originally designed to operate on dual fuels: gas and clean coal. So, when we decided to convert
the complex to run on natural gas, there was no downtime and the conversion process went
smoothly," remarked Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD & CEO of Dewa.
According to him, this step supports the vision and directives of the wise leadership to turn Dubai
into a carbon-neutral economy. "It also supports the Dubai Clean Energy Strategy 2050 and Net

Zero Carbon Emissions Strategy 2050 to provide 100% of Dubai’s total power capacity from clean
energy sources by 2050," explained Al Tayer.
"The move also supports our efforts to diversify energy sources and secure energy supplies to
ensure providing electricity services according to the highest standards of reliability, availability and
efficiency," he added.-
The Emirate’s ambition to become carbon neutral in next three decades
Dubai is also building other clean energy projects, including the 5,000MW Mohammed bin Rashid
Al Maktoum Solar Park, the world’s largest single-site solar park. The fifth phase, with a total
investment of Dh2.05 billion, is 60 per cent complete, said Dewa.
This step supports the vision and directives of the leadership to turn Dubai into a carbon-neutral
economy
Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, managing director and chief executive of Dewa
The project is part of Dubai’s strategy to increase the share of clean power in its energy mix to 13.3
per cent in the first quarter of this year, from an existing 11.38 per cent.
Dewa’s current production capacity is 13,417MW, including 1,527MW of renewable energy using
photovoltaic solar panels from the Mohammed bin Rashid Solar Park.
The Hassyan power plant will also include a water desalination project with a production capacity
of 120 million imperial gallons per day using reverse osmosis, Dewa said. The project will be built
under the independent water producer (IWP) model and is due to begin production in 2024.
Reverse osmosis is a membrane-based method of desalination that uses less energy compared
with the thermal process used to produce fresh water.

Oman holds potential for alternative energy: Study
By Kabeer Yousuf, Oman Daily Observer
Solar, tidal and wind energy resources can be the best alternatives to fossil fuel in future in the
Sultanate of Oman, and experts called for an advanced Wind Energy Center in Duqm, according to
a study conducted by the Sultan Qaboos University (SQU).
The study conducted by principal investigator Dr Mohamed Eldesoky Hereher, Assistant Professor,
Geography Department and Dr Ahmed M El Kenawy and published in Renewable Energy journal
at the University, suggests the country's richness of nearly 360 days of sunlight and its potential in
attaining self-sufficiency in solar energy.
The research indicates that almost 3.2 per cent and 4.4 per cent of the Omani territory is valid for
sustainable use of wind and solar radiation, respectively.
"We have made a comprehensive assessment of the potential renewable energy resources in the
country, with a particular focus on solar, wind and tidal energy resources. We adopted a novel
approach to assess the potential of these energy resources, in which information from multiple
climatic indicators is coupled with socioeconomic drivers of energy development," Doctor
Mohammed told the Observer.
His study titled 'Exploring the potential of solar, tidal, and wind energy resources in Oman using an
integrated climatic-socioeconomic approach was awarded in the Energy and Industry field within
the PhD category, selected from a number of innovative research projects in the 8th National
Research Award organised by the Ministry of Higher Education, Research and Innovation
(MoHERI).
According to Dr Mohamed, the team then introduced a new overall assessment index (OAI) based
on these three climatic indicators to explore the best localities from a climatic perspective for
generating solar and wind energies. The validity of the recommended sites was discussed in the
context of important physiographic, environmental and socioeconomic constraints such as
population density, urban settlements, distance to water bodies, transportation network and the like.

Their study was based on a daily dataset of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction
(NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); three climate indicators were employed to
characterise the frequency, intensity, and duration of solar radiation and wind speed.
According to Dr Mohamed, the Sultanate of Oman can be the hub for alternative energy for the
future as both solar radiation and wind can be used as substantial alternative sources of fossil fuel
resources in Oman, with almost 3.2 per cent and 4.4 per cent of the Omani territory being valid for
sustainable use of wind and solar radiation, respectively.
The most recommended sites for wind
generation are located mainly along
Al-Jazir and Duqum coasts of
southeastern Oman, where a
promising wind energy center can be
constructed.
He added that the best localities for the
development of hybrid solar radiation
generation centers are likely to be
placed in Sohar and Thumrayt, where
solar intensity approaches 8.1
kWh/m2, with a high frequency of
occurrence throughout the year. In
contrast, Oman showed low potential to generate tidal power, mainly due to a low tidal range (<2
m) along the majority of the Omani coastline.
Dr Mohamed further added that this study has provided a solid base for national and local decision
makers in Oman for a reliable assessment, monitoring, and sustainable exploitation of clean and
renewable energy resources, especially with high population growth, accelerated urbanisation, and
rapid economic growth over the past few decades, which can pose more challenges to future energy
demand in this country.
Oman's first AER (now APSR) -compliant grid-connected small-scale-solar
plant delivered by HTC courtesy of Shell's Solar-into-Schools programme.

Iraq's $27bln TotalEnergies deal stalled amid disputes
By Aref Mohammed, Rowena Edwards and Dmitry Zhdannikov, Reuters News
BASRA/LONDON- A $27-billion deal between France’s TotalEnergies and Iraq, that Baghdad
hoped would reverse the exit of oil majors from the country, has stalled amid disputes over terms
and risks being scrapped by the country's new government.
Iraq has struggled to attract major fresh investments into its energy industry since signing a flurry of
post U.S.-invasion deals over a decade ago. The Iraqi government has cut oil output targets
repeatedly as international oil companies that signed those initial deals leave due to poor returns
from revenue sharing agreements.
TotalEnergies agreed last year to invest in four oil, gas and renewables projects in the southern
Basra region over 25 years. The deal, signed by Iraq's oil ministry in September 2021 followed a
visit from French President Emmanuel Macron.
The ministry, however, did not have agreement on the deal’s financial details with all the government
departments that needed to approve it, three Iraqi oil ministry and industry sources involved or
familiar with the negotiations told Reuters, and it has been mired in disputes ever since.
Following a parliamentary election, the deal now needs approval from a new Iraqi cabinet, including
new oil and finance ministers, who won't be in place until at least the end of March. Iraq’s oil ministry
told Reuters it expects the TotalEnergies deal to complete from then.
TotalEnergies said it was progressing towards closing the deal but added, "The agreements remain
subject to conditions to be met and lifted by both sides." The terms, which have not been made
public or previously reported, have raised concerns from Iraqi politicians, and according to sources
close to the deal are unprecedented for Iraq.
A group of Shi’ite lawmakers wrote to the oil ministry in January demanding details of the deal and
asking why it was signed without competition and transparency, according to a copy of the letter
seen by Reuters.
Parliament could force the oil ministry to review or scrap the deal.
WAITING FOR $10 BLN
Under the draft terms, TotalEnergies is relying on getting $10 billion of initial investment to fund the
wider project via oil sales from the Ratawi oilfield, one of four projects in the broader agreement,
according to the sources.

The Ratawi field is already pumping 85,000 barrels of oil per day and rather than TotalEnergies
receiving its share, the revenue is going into government coffers.
TotalEnergies is due to get 40% of the revenues from Ratawi’s oil sales, Iraqi oil sources involved
in negotiations told Reuters.
That dwarfs the more usual 10-
15% that investors would have
received from past projects
through Iraq’s technical service
contracts, which reimbursed
foreign companies for capital and
production costs and paid a fixed
remuneration fee in crude.
The higher the revenue-sharing
proportion, the quicker and less
risky the payback for investor.
Iraq’s oil ministry officials argue the
country needs to be competitive
with other energy producing
countries to lure big investors like
TotalEnergies.
“We need to offer more incentives,”
a senior oil ministry official said.
TotalEnergies also has concerns
about the deal. The French
company has rejected having
Iraq’s National Oil Company
(INOC) as its partner in the project,
which is also delaying closing the deal, according to the two sources.
INOC is Iraq’s reconstituted national oil firm, created to emulate firms such as the huge Saudi
Aramco, but its legal status has yet to be fully cleared by Iraq’s new government and parliament,
presenting a risk for TotalEnergies.
Iraq’s oil production capacity has grown from 3 million to around 5 million bpd in recent years, but
the departure of oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Shell from a number of projects due to poor
returns means future growth is uncertain.
Developments have also slowed due to growing investor focus on environmental, social and
governance criteria. Iraq at one time had targeted becoming a rival to top global producer Saudi
Arabia with output of 12 million bpd or over a tenth of global demand.
Besides Ratawi, the deal with TotalEnergies consists of a 1 GW solar power plant, a 600 million
cubic feet a day gas processing facility, and a $3 billion sea water supply project key to boosting
Iraq’s southern oil production.
The latter has also been hit by delays as Iraq's oil ministry decided in August last year that it wanted
constructors to pay for the project, reversing a previous decision to shortlist companies which would
do it using state funds. It is still collecting bids for financing, sources say.

The World Has Been Using A Lot More Oil Than We Thought
Global oil stockpiles are a lot lower than previous estimates suggest.
Bloomberg - Julian Lee
Julian Lee is an oil strategist for Bloomberg First Word. Previously he worked as a senior analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies.
Remember all that missing oil I wrote about last month? The discrepancy between where stockpiles
ought to be (based on implied supply and demand balances) and the volumes that had actually
been reported or measured?
Well, those barrels are missing no more. As I feared, it turns out they’ve already been used up —
in the refineries and petrochemicals plants of China and Saudi Arabia. That means oil balances
are a lot tighter than the International Energy Agency previously thought.
The group published its latest monthly report on Friday, revising its historical oil demand numbers
all the way back to 2007. Yes, that’s right, for the past 15 years the world has been using more oil
than the primary monitoring agency that advises consumer governments thought.
Demand Revisions
The IEA has revised 15 years of global oil demand

Source: International Energy Agency
The changes aren’t small. At 2.9 billion barrels, the additional demand they’ve just found is
equivalent to five times the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or an entire year’s worth of
consumption in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the U.K. and Mexico.
Not surprisingly, the revisions were made to oil products and in sectors that are among the least
transparent in the oil balance — the petrochemicals industries in Saudi Arabia and China.
That doesn’t make them unimportant. Petrochemicals is the fastest-growing sector in medium-term
oil demand forecasts and it is an area that has seen rapid expansion during the Covid-19 pandemic
due to a surge in demand for personal protective equipment and for packaging that has
accompanied the boom in online shopping.
The impact on estimates of global oil stockpiles during the pandemic is stark.
All Gone
Oil stockpiles are back below pre-pandemic levels after IEA demand revisions

The 660 million barrels of surplus stockpiles that the IEA saw a month ago have evaporated. The
demand revisions mean that the agency now estimates that global oil stockpiles fell below their end-
2019 level by the start of 2022.
And that may not be the end of it. Stockpile data for the OECD countries suggest that there may be
more demand revisions to come from the IEA.
Commercial oil inventories among the developed economies of the group’s members fell by 60
million barrels in December, and initial estimates suggest they dropped further last month. That
comes in stark contrast to the warnings from Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman
that the oil balance would swing from deficit to surplus in the final month of 2021.
That the oil market is still tighter than forecasts indicate won’t come as a huge surprise to those
who’ve been following the rise in prices over the past two years. In a remarkable parallel to the oil
squeeze of 2007-2008, the path of Brent oil prices has almost exactly matched that of the earlier
period during the post-pandemic recovery.
Look Familiar?
Crude rally looks like 2007-08 that ended in a crash
The one significant divergence came after U.S. President Joe Biden threatened, then delivered, a
release of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve when the OPEC+ group of oil producers refused
to open their taps more quickly.
The relief was short-lived, and by the end of January, oil prices were back where they had been at
the same point in 2008.
How long they continue on their upward path may depend on whether the U.S. shale patch or a
revival of the Iran nuclear deal rides to the rescue.

It has been clear for many months that the OPEC+ group is incapable of adding the supply it keeps
promising. The latest analysis from my colleagues at BloombergNEF shows that 15 of the 19
countries with output targets failed to meet them in January.
Production by the 13 OPEC countries rose by just 65,000 barrels a day last month — one-quarter
of the planned increase. So the supply is going to have to come from somewhere else. The U.S.
Energy Information Administration has been getting steadily more bullish about the shale sector.
Earlier this month it raised its domestic production forecast by another 200,000 barrels a day for the
second half of 2022 and most of 2023. It now sees production approaching its pre-pandemic peak
by the end of next year.
A quicker source of incremental supply might be a return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that could
rapidly unlock 1.3 million barrels a day of the Persian Gulf country’s production, enough to upend
forecasts of oil prices rising above $100 a barrel later this year.
The Biden administration says a deal with Iran is now in sight but rapid advances in the Islamic
Republic’s nuclear program mean the window for reviving the accord is narrowing.
Without those production boosts, though, the market will have to be brought back into balance by
demand destruction. High oil prices, which are helping to stoke inflation, will inevitably start to slow
demand growth, but the farther prices rise, the harder they’ll fall.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg
LP and its owners.

U.S.A: Generators in Texas meet electric demand, avoid
widespread outages during recent cold snap. U.S. EIA, Hourly Electric Grid Monitor
A cold snap brought cold weather and icy conditions to Texas earlier this month, increasing heating
demand for electricity across the state. Power plants and electric generators in the Electric Reliability
Council of Texas (ERCOT)—the grid operator for most of the state—increased output to meet
elevated demand during the storm.
Unlike February 2021, when extreme cold disrupted the supply of electricity in Texas and left
millions without power, generators maintained fuel supplies and avoided widespread power
outages.
ERCOT forecasts electricity demand to help ensure it has sufficient generation resources to meet
expected demand. Actual demand refers to the amount of electricity that customers actually
consume.
When power outages occur, customers may want to consume more electricity but are unable to,
resulting in lower actual demand.
During the recent cold snap, actual demand for electricity in ERCOT peaked at 68,862
megawatthours (MWh), slightly below the peak actual demand of 69,215 MWh during the February
2021 winter storm.
However, this winter’s peak was still below the demand ERCOT forecast for February 2021 before
widespread outages began, which resulted in lower actual demand than forecast.
This winter, actual demand on the peak day (February 4) was much lower than ERCOT’s day-ahead
forecast, largely because temperatures were warmer than predicted.

Unlike in February 2021, this winter's storm didn’t cause major declines of natural gas production in
Texas, and natural gas-fired power plants in Texas maintained their fuel supply during the cold
weather.
In February 2021, weather-related production issues reduced peak natural gas production by 16
billion cubic feet (Bcf), according to data from IHS Markit, compared with a 3 Bcf decline in peak dry
natural gas production this winter.
In addition, renewable generators, largely wind, maintained a high level of output during the coldest
periods this winter, when demand for space heating was the highest. In addition, coal-fired and
nuclear units did not experience outages, which occurred in February 2021.
In response to the ample supply, the ERCOT prices for wholesale electricity in the real-time market
were below $100 per MWh during the recent storm; prices were as high as $9,000 per MWh (the
price cap for wholesale electricity in ERCOT at the time) during the February 2021 storm.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hourly Electric Grid Monitor
After widespread outages in Texas during the winter storm last February, ERCOT took several actions
to ensure grid reliability in the event of colder-than-normal weather, including:
 Inspections of generating and transmission assets for weatherization
 Proof of weather readiness from generation and transmission equipment owners
 Increasing operational reserves
 Requirements for some on-site fuel supply
 Unannounced testing of generation resources

NewBase February 15 -2022 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil falls on profit-taking, after new Peak all eyes on Russia, Ukraine
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as investors took profits from the previous day's rally to seven-year highs
and as global stock markets slumped, although losses were capped by fears that Russia might
invade Ukraine and disrupt supplies.
Brent crude futures was at $96.19 a barrel by 0205 GMT, down 29 cents, or 0.3%, after rising $2.04
on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 36 cents, or 0.4%, to $95.10 a
barrel, after gaining $2.36 the previous day.
Both benchmarks hit their highest since September 2014 on Monday, with Brent touching $96.78
and WTI reaching $95.82.
Russia is one of the world's largest oil and gas producers, and fears it could invade Ukraine have
driven a rally in oil towards $100 per barrel, a level not seen since 2014.
Oil price special
coverage

"Investors scooped up profits from Monday's rally though they were hesitant to take fresh short
positions due to rising tensions in Eastern Europe," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of
research at Nissan Securities.
"Oil markets may see a real correction if the Iran-U.S. nuclear deal is agreed or global equities
tumble further amid worries over inflation and tighter monetary policy by central banks," he said.
Portfolio managers are still bullish on the outlook for oil. But prices have already risen by more than
30% in less than three months and there are growing concerns about rising inflation and interest
rates, prompting fund managers to take some profit last week. read more
Investors are also watching talks between the United States and Iran. The Iranian foreign minister
said Iran was "in a hurry" to reach a swift agreement in nuclear talks in Vienna, provided its national
interests are protected. read more
Global stocks slid on Monday on U.S. warnings that Russia could soon invade Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Ukrainians to fly the country's flags from
buildings and sing the national anthem in unison on Feb. 16, a date that some Western media have
cited as a possible start of a Russian invasion. read more
Several Western media organisations have quoted U.S. and other officials citing the date as when
Russian forces would be ready for an attack.
Meanwhile, International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol urged OPEC+, the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, to close the gap between words and its
actions. read more
Shortfalls in OPEC+ production and spare capacity concerns are likely to keep the oil market tight
and prices could hit $125 a barrel as early as the second quarter of this year, JP Morgan Global
Equity Research said.

‘A very scary concept’: Energy ministers fearful of oil prices
surpassing $100 a barrel… Sam Meredith@SMEREDITH19
KEY POINTS
 Speaking at an oil and gas exhibition conference in Cairo, Egypt, energy and petroleum
ministers representing Egypt, Cyprus, Israel and the United Arab Emirates were asked
whether they expected oil prices to spike into triple-digit territory.
 “For me, being professional I can see it happening, but I don’t want it to happen,” Egypt’s
Petroleum Minister Tarek El Molla told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble at EGYPS 2022.
 Cyprus’ Energy Minister Natasa Pilides agreed it was “a very scary concept” to imagine oil
prices surpassing $100 a barrel. “It is actually quite tangible,” she added.
Energy ministers representing Egypt and Cyprus on Monday said they were deeply concerned
about the potential for oil prices to climb above $100 a barrel. It comes at a time when more than
a dozen countries have urged their citizens to leave Ukraine amid warnings of an imminent Russian
invasion.
International benchmark Brent crude futures soared to a new seven-year high on Monday morning
on the elevated geopolitical tensions. The contract was last seen trading at $94.33, down 0.1% for
the session after earlier hitting a peak of $96.16.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures, meanwhile, stood at $93.20, roughly 0.1% higher.
The U.S. and Europe have threatened to sanction Russia if it invades Ukraine, escalating fears of
a possible supply disruption from one of the world’s top producers. Russia has repeatedly denied it
is planning to invade Ukraine dispute amassing around 100,000 soldiers on Ukraine’s borders.
Speaking at an oil and gas exhibition conference in Cairo, Egypt, energy and petroleum ministers
representing Egypt, Cyprus, Israel and the United Arab Emirates were asked whether they expected
oil prices to spike into triple-digit territory.

“For me, being professional I can see it happening, but I don’t want it to happen,” Egypt’s Petroleum
Minister Tarek El Molla told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble at EGYPS 2022.
“It is on the way, definitely,” he added.
Cyprus’ Energy Minister Natasa Pilides agreed it was “a very scary concept” to imagine oil prices
surpassing $100 a barrel. “It is actually quite tangible,” she added.
“It is very difficult to deal with because on the one hand, we have the tendency particularly in the
last few months of subsidizing basically which is not the norm, so we are in that difficult position
where when you start doing that it is very difficult to stop it,” Pilides said.
“We definitely need to stick to our targets in terms of the energy transition, but I would also add that
natural gas has a place in that trajectory as a bridge fuel.”
Speaking at the same panel event, Israeli Energy Minister Karine Elharrar said: “It is a very hard
question, but I think if we don’t want to be at [$100 oil] then we have to make sure that we have a
diversity of energy sources.”
The International Energy Agency has previously recognized natural gas as the “cleanest burning
and fastest-growing fossil fuel,” but has cautioned that its longer-term use in a transition to net-zero
energy systems is uncertain.
To be sure, the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and gas, is the chief driver of the climate
emergency.
Does OPEC have a plan if Russia invades?
“You know me, I am not going to answer the question,” UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei
told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble when asked whether oil prices could surpass $100 a barrel.
“I think what is happening to the market is a geopolitical tension and that is what driving primarily
the prices. It is very difficult to predict when it comes to geopolitics,” he added, referring to the
Russia-Ukraine crisis.
Oil producer group OPEC and its
allies, a group known as OPEC+,
have struggled to ramp up
production in recent
months, despite pledging to
gradually unwind record supply
cuts. The UAE is a member of
OPEC.
When asked whether OPEC+ had a
plan in the event Russia invades
Ukraine, al-Mazrouei replied: “I
don’t think we need to escalate
more than what is said. What we
hear is there is no intention for
invasion and that, I think, is
comforting.”
“I would be on that camp that is not seeing that happening,” he said, adding that he hoped diplomacy
between Russia and Europe would prevail.

NewBase Special Coverage
The Energy world –Feb -04 -2022
Europe relies primarily on imports to meet its natural gas needs
Source: Graph created by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on data from Eurostat and the International Group of
Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL) annual liquefied natural gas trade reports
Imports of natural gas by both pipeline and as liquefied natural gas (LNG) provided more than 80%
of the supply of natural gas to the countries of the European Union (EU-27) and the United Kingdom
(UK) in 2020, up from 65% a decade earlier. During 2020, natural gas imported into the region by
pipeline made up 74% of all natural gas imports, and LNG accounted for the remaining 26% of total
imports.
Note: Due to reporting requirements, some volumes of pipeline-imported natural gas are not
attributed to a source country.
Pipeline imports of natural gas into the region come from Russia, Norway, North Africa, and
Azerbaijan. Pipeline imports originating in Russia—the largest supplier in the region—grew from
about 11 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2010 to more than 13 Bcf/d in 2020 (a low consumption
year due to COVID-19 related impacts).

Despite construction of new pipelines, imports from Norway averaged around 9 Bcf/d between 2010
and 2020, as development of new fields in the Barents Sea section of the Norwegian offshore
Continental Shelf was insufficient to offset declines from mature fields in the North Sea.
Source: Map created by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on data from Fluxsystem; Gazprom; BBL, TANAP; TAP; Norske
Petroleum; Gassco; Ireland 2050; National Grid; Hrvatska LNG; SNAM; Orsted; and CRE.fr
Although LNG imports made up about 26% of all natural gas imports, they provided about 20% of
all of the natural gas supplied to the EU-27 countries and the UK in 2020.
LNG imports tend to fluctuate from year to year—from as low as 3.6 Bcf/d in 2014 to as high as 10.1
Bcf/d in 2019—depending on global natural gas prices, demand driven by cold weather, and the
availability of pipeline supplies.
Most LNG delivered to Europe is supplied through long-term contracts. However, growing volumes
of flexible LNG supplies, primarily from the United States, contributed to the notable increases in
LNG imports to Europe from 2019 to 2021.
Regional production has played a smaller role in supplying European natural gas needs over the
past decade. From 2010 through 2020, natural gas production in the EU-27 countries and the UK
declined by more than 50%, from 18 Bcf/d in 2010 to 9 Bcf/d in 2020. This decline is the result of
resource depletion as well as initiatives to fully phase out natural gas production in the region.
Regional natural gas demand fell rapidly between 2010 and 2014, and then it stabilized during the
five-year period from 2016 to 2020 at approximately 45 Bcf/d.

Natural gas consumed by the European industrial sector, where fuel switching is difficult, remained
nearly unchanged, averaging 13.7 Bcf/d throughout the 2010–2020 period. Energy efficiency
measures and electrification reduced residential and commercial sector natural gas consumption to
an average of 17 Bcf/d in 2020.
Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector fell the most between 2010 and 2014 as a
result of increasing penetration of renewable energy in electricity generation.
Starting in 2016, consumption of natural gas in Europe’s electric power sector increased as a result
of the systematic retirement of coal-fired power plants across Europe and the retirement of nuclear
power plants in Germany in particular.
Where Will Europe Get Its Natural Gas
When President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz appeared at the White House
yesterday, they made clear that Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline will be left to die on the political
battlefield — if Russia invades Ukraine. But what will that cost Russia, and where would Europe get
its natural gas?
Moscow relies on hydrocarbons for 60% of its national budget, while oil and gas make up nearly
one-third of its gross national product. It already provides about 39% of Europe’s gas. Russia built
Nord Stream 2 to bypass Ukraine — an $11 billion undertaking that stretches 745 miles before it
filters into Germany’s Baltic coast. It can’t start delivering gas unless Germany’s regulators permit
it. Is Europe more dependent on Russia’s gas, or is Russia more reliant on Europe’s money?

“If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will
be – there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,” Biden said during the news conference. “We will bring
an end to it … I promise you we will be able to do it.”
Chancellor Scholz followed those remarks by saying that the two NATO allies stand shoulder-to-
shoulder: "We're one voice, and do things together and we made it very clear if there was
military aggression against Ukraine, this will entail severe consequences that we agreed upon
together.”
Nord Stream 2 is a companion to Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline, and it allows Russia’s Gazprom
to double its natural gas capacity headed to Europe. Russia exported 168 billion cubic meters of
natural gas to Europe in 2020. Germany bought 56 billion cubic meters of that. Italy and the
Netherlands followed with 20 billion and 11 billion, respectively.
The president said he is working diligently with countries that export liquefied natural gas (LNG)—
natural gas converted to a liquid by cooling it at -260 degrees Fahrenheit — to supply Europe should
Russia invade. Qatar is the most mentioned. Australia is also up there. The United States now
provides less than 5% of Europe’s gas, but it is a growing influence. Norway is Europe’s second-
biggest supplier, although its pipeline is already operating at capacity. Turkey can supply natural
gas to southern Europe.
Price Crisis
With its abundance of unconventional natural gas, the United States has become a net exporter of
LNG since 2017. To that end, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has approved a
dozen LNG export terminals, on top of the five that currently operate.
The United States now has markets in the United Kingdom, Spain, and France — markets to which
this country is increasing its exports. But Germany could become the most lucrative. Cheniere
Energy, Royal Dutch Shell, and Total are the major global LNG exporters.

“Europe is already experiencing a ‘quasi-curtailment’ of Russia gas flows,” says Michael Stoppard,
chief strategist, global gas, IHS Markit. “The result is a European gas import picture that is starkly
different from a year ago. One where LNG imports have ramped up to fill the gap.”
Ukraine still has the most to lose. IHS Markit released a study that says Russian gas flows through
Ukraine fell to historic lows in January—50 million cubic meters per day. That’s less than half the
levels of a year ago. In February, however, such flow-throughs increased, but they are half of what
they were between 2015-2020. Ukraine is dependent on the associated transit taxes to run its
economy.
LNG exporters and the United States have the most to gain. European LNG imports increased in
January to 34% of its total. In contrast, the continent imported much less from Russia, which made
up just 17% during the month. The report says that Europe has ample LNG re-gasification capacity
— from the frozen state. It also says that it could safely draw down some storage levels.
IHS warns, however, that if all Russian exports stopped, it would create a “supply deficit” that no
amount of increased LNG imports could satisfy. To that end, Russia has been accused of jacking
up its natural gas prices to apply pressure on Germany to permit its Nord Stream 2 plant. Indeed,
Europe’s natural gas prices have risen by a factor of five in recent months. Correspondingly,
Russia’s state-owned gas monopoly Gazprom earned at least $55 billion last year.
Notably, Russia and China are bonding, and their energy ties are strengthening. Russia provided
5% of China’s oil in 2005. That will now grow significantly to $270 billion over 25 years. But just as
Europe is vowing to use more sustainable energy resources, so is China. China may need Russia’s
fossil fuels right now. But it needs the United States for technology. Over the long run, Russia’s
energy dominance will wane as both continents will be weaning themselves off oil and gas.
“So far, this is more of a price crisis than a physical supply crisis,” says Shankari Srinivasan, vice
president, global gas, IHS Markit. “While gas supply is sufficient to meet most market needs through
the end of the winter heating season, high prices are already leading to closures of some industry
and furloughing of workers in Europe.”

NewBase Energy News 15 February 2022 - Issue No. 1487 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscriptions, please email us.
About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as “with external voluntary Energy consultation for
the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service, as the UAE operations base. Khaled is the
Founder of NewBase Energy news articles issues, an international consultant,
advisor, ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks,
waste management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection
and sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities &
gas compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas
pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply
routes. Has drafted & finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation &
maintenance agreements. Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities.
Currently dealing for biomass energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has
participated in numerous conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and
panelist. Khaled is the Editor-in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer
with more than 1400 popular articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on
renewable energy, waste management and environmental sustainability in different parts of the world. Khaled
has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program broadcasted
internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see contact details
above.

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