2. • Safety and environmental concerns
1. Ang BNPP ay depektibo, luma at di ligtas.
2. Ang reduksyon sa carbon emission ng BNPP ay maliit
lamang sa konteksto ng buong mundo.
• Electricity alternatives
3. May iba pang mapapagkunan na indigenous energy
(geothermal, natural gas, etc) ng elektrisidad para
masagot ang kakulangan sa 2012.
4. Hindi ibig sabihin ng operasyon ng BNPP na maging
mura ang elektrisidad.
• Economic costs
5. Ang pagpapaandar muli ng BNPP ay kukunin sa
mamamayan at uutangin. Dadagdag ng 24.1
centavo/kWh sa singil sa kuryente at magiging ugat pa
ng korupsyon ito
3. 1. Safety and environmental concerns
Ang BNPP ay depektibo, luma at di ligtas.
Maraming problema na kinalulugaran (site), sa lumang planta, at sa
pagtatapon ng basurang nukleyar.
1.Nasa bulkang Natib ang BNPP
2.Geologically active ang paligid at wala pang malinaw na pagaaral
sa mga faults na malapit sa BNPP
3.Matagal ang ilalagi ng nuclear waste sa mundo at wala pang
solusyon sa pagtatago nito
4.May CO2 emission din ang nuclear plants
4. Ang Nuklear ay MASAMA, at
ang BNPP ay MAPANGANIB
Kelvin S. Rodolfo
Adjunct
Professor, Nat’l Inst. of Geological Sciences, U.P. Professor Emeritus,
University of Illinois at Chicago DOST Balik Scientist
5.
6.
7.
8.
9. Solid lines: Dating mga nakitang faults ; Dotted lines: mga bagong
faults nakita makatapos 2007 quake. (Nakada et al.)
Kashiwarazaki-Kariwa
accident (Niigata, Japan)
Naglabas ng radiation sa
dagat noong may
earthquake.
400 drums ng low-level
Epicenter Mw 6.6 16 nuclear waste ay nahulog at
July 07 quake 40 ay bumukas ang takip.
Naglabas ng traces ng
19 ki
radioactive Cobalt 60 and
chromium 51 sa paligid.
l
omet
ers
12. Hernandez-Santos January 12, 1977 report
conclusion:
“… The above review has revealed the high risk
potential for the protection of health and safety
of the public if the proposed site is accepted.
High probability earth motions associated with
earthquakes due to the Manila Trench – West
Luzon Trough displacements and presence of a
probable fault in the plant location itself may lend
to structural failures causing the release of
radioactive materials from the nuclear power plant
or may cause extensive damage to the plant.”
13.
14.
15. Mahaba ang itatagal ng nuclear waste Human civilization
Modern humans 25,000: last
3,000BC:
12,000:
flourish; complex Ice Age;
Writing,
Agricultural
language; bladed peopling of the
pyramids
Revolution
tools Americas
50 40 30 20 10 5 0
Thousands of Years
16.
17.
18. Interim Storage
Spent fuel stored in a “spent fuel pool”.
Water absorbs radiation and disperses heat from spent fuel.
19. Nuclear fuel
cycle
From slide by Meg Honrado,
2006
20. Ang nuclear plants ay gumagawa rin ng CO2.
Bawat kilowatt-hour na nangaling sa plantang
nuklear ay gumawa ng 1/3 kadami sa nanggaling sa
pagsunog ng natural gas.
Ang pinakayaman na mga mina ay mabilis nauubos
dahil sa pagdami ng mga plantang nuklear.
Lalaki ang CO2 galing sa nuklear kasama sa pagbaba
ang laman ng mga natitirang ore bodies.
Magkapanahon na ang CO2 galing sa Uranium ay
aabot sa nanggaling sa pagsunog ng fossil fuel.
– J.W.S van Leeuwen and P. Smith, 2004, Nuclear Power – The Energy Balance.
http://beheer.opvit.rug.nl/deenen/Nuclear_sustainability-rev3.doc
21. Power Shortage?
Quoting figures from the various updates of
2012 GAP
the Philippine Energy Plan from the DOE (1495 mw)
on their website, the projected shortage in
2012 can be addressed by building
geothermal, hydro power, natural gas, wind,
solar and coal plants even without the
operation of the nuclear plant in Bataan if
only government builds the necessary
indicative capacity additions and develop and
upgrade exisiting power plants.
(combined data 2006 PEP Update+Supply Demand Profile, Napocor
+simulation of half growth rates
)
Kayang sagutin ang “kakulangan” sa 2012 kahit wala
ang BNPP kapag itinayo ang mga geothermal, hydro,
natural gas, wind, solar at iba pang pagkukunan ng
enerhiya
22. Gap of 1495 MW from required
capacity and online dependable
capacity.
2012
(1495
mw)
(combined data 2006 PEP Update+Supply Demand Profile, Napocor
+simulation of half growth rates
23. Gas
Gas
COAL
COAL
COAL
Bio
Geothermal
Geothermal
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Geothermal
Hydro, etc
COAL
Kabuuang maaring itayo: 2534-3400 MW
(Total Indicative Capacity)
(2006 PEP Update+Supply Demand Profile, Napocor)
24. Where are the plants?
Government has
pursued a policy of
privatization
Has sold or in the
process of selling our
generation plants
Electric Power
Industry Reform Act
(EPIRA)
25. Direct cost to people: nuclear tax
The proposed bill would pass on the cost of the BNPP to ordinary
consumers as a nuclear tax of P 0.10 per kilowatt hour for the total
electric power generated in the country.
According to Section 22 of the Bill
− “SEC. 22. Alternative Sources of Funding. – The State may raise equity through a
surcharge of PhP0.10/kWH of the total electric power generated in the country:
Provided, That such collection of surcharge shall not exceed five (5) years from the
date of its initial imposition. The funds collected shall be reimbursed to the electric
consumers after such time that the BNPP shall commence commercial operations.
The time frame for such reimbursement shall not exceed three (3) years. The State is
also authorized to enter into international or domestic loan agreements to fund the
implementation of this Act: Provided, That the total funds raised from the surcharge
and the loan combined shall not exceed US$1 billion.”
De-facto nuclear tax of
10 centavos per kWh
26. Direct cost to people: nuclear tax
According to figures from the , the total electric
power sales in 2007 is 48,009 GigaWatt hours
(1,000,000,000 or billion watt-hour) or 48,009
million kilowatt hours.
4 billion pesos per year or 100 M USD per year
For five years, the total would be 20 billion pesos.
For household of 300 kwh per month, you would
have to pay an additional of 30 pesos (no VAT
yet) per month or a total of 1800 pesos for five
years.
PhP 20 B for five years =
PhP 1800 per 300 kwh user (DOE website)
27. More loans and more costs
The remaining 500 Million USD balance from
the projected one billion dollar cost is to be
obtained by entering into international or
domestic loan agreements.
Delays and interest repayments can drive this
higher and become a new burden for the
Filipino people.
Overnight capital cost (2008 $/kW) : 4038 USD
620 MW = 2.5 B USD (excluding interests)
Posibleng mas lalaki pa sa 500 M na paunang
uutangin dahil sa interest at iba pang gastos
Www.nei.org
http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf02.htm
A comparative study published in January 2008 for a Connecticut Integrated Resource Plan, USA,
28. Decomissioning costs
P 15.35 B for 30 years of operation set aside
•
for decomissioning (0.002 USD/kWh) = 326 M
USD
• Cleanup of Three Mile Island costs: TMI Dec
93 = 975 M USD
• Decommissioning costs in the US: $325
million per reactor all-up (1998 $), France 480
million euro (70MW), UK 32 MW power plant
117 M EUR, 100MW power plant, cost about
90 M
Kulang ang itinatabi para sa decomissioning
29. Waste disposal costs
P 7.67 B for 30 years of operation set aside
•
for decomissioning (0.001 USD/kWh) = 163 M
USD
These costs (decomissioning and waste
•
disposal) shall be passed on to us by
NAPOCOR or the concerned government
agency
Total addon cost: 0.003 USD = 0.1413 PHP
•
Kulang ang itinatabi para sa disposal
30. Total costs to be passed on to us?
NPC either will absorb decomissioning costs or add it to
our generation rate
For a 300 kWh household total for first 5 years
P 20B for five years = P 1800 pesos
P 7.67 B for 30 years disposal cost (first 5 years) = P 847
P 15.35 B for 30 years decomissioning (first 5 years) = P 1696
First five years = Additional of 4343 pesos
Or equivalent to additional 72 pesos per month!
Remaining costs to be collected throughout the lifetime of
the plant: 42 pesos per month
Dagdag na singil ng 72 pesos kada buwan at
dagdag na 500M++ USD na utang
31. Global Financial Crisis
The projected peak demand for 2012 should be
recomputed to include the effects of the global
economic crisis and recession.
There should be a second look at the growth
projections used in the simulation for the 2012
targets due to the global economic crisis that is
expected to foster GDP growth in 2009 to be
only half or even less than in 2007 which
would be the slowest since at least 2001. We
need not rush and nor make “IMMEDIATE” the
reopening the nuclear plant.
Bagong targets dahil sa krisis: mabagal ang ekonomiya
32.
33. Adapted from Fernando Y. Roxas, Why is Napocor Losing So Much Money
in The IPP Experience in the Philippines
Erik J. Woodhouse , Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Center for Environmental Science and Policy , Stanford University
http://pesd.stanford.edu
34. Stable supply = lower rates?
Having a stable or even a
surplus of electricity capacity
does not necessarily
translate to lower energy
costs. In recent years when
we had an energy
oversupply, power rates
have still gone up due to
Surplus and yet electricity
one-sided contracts and the prices is around 8.75
pass-on provisions of pesos per kWh!! (included
EPIRA. are VAT, IPP contract
costs, systems losses, etc;
to be included NPC
stranded debts, etc)
35. May iba pang mapapagkunan ng
baseload power
Nuclear plants are said to be able to supply
baseload power as opposed to renewable
energy, which can supply only a fraction of the
energy demand. We need to develop and
expand geothermal to supply baseload capacity
in our energy mix as well as funding and
developing energy-storage solutions that can
compensate for the disadvantages of wind and
solar power.
37. Indicative Geothermal Projects
Geothermal projects of baseload
capacity could be online by 2014
totals 750 MW
PEP 2006-2014 www.napocor.gov.ph
38. Indicative Geothermal Projects
Geothermal projects of baseload
capacity could be online by 2014
totals 750 MW
PEP 2006-2014 www.napocor.gov.ph
39. The Malampaya Project
October 2001
Shell as operator (45%),
Chevron (45%), PNOC
(10%)
3.9 trillion cu. ft. (Tcf) of
proven reserves
Estimated 30-40 million
barrels of recoverable oil
deposits (to be bidded
out)
40. Other Alternative Energy Sources
Solar: tropical country
Wind: 7,400- 14,363 MW
(DOST 70,000 MW)
potential
Geothermal: 2nd in world:
1931 MW – 3131 MW
(estimated)
Tidal Power, Wave Energy,
Ocean Thermal Energy,
Fuel Cells and Hydrogen
Technologies
41. Government's grand mega-sale
Expected foreign investments
P177 billion potential investment in the
renewable energy sector for 2004-2013 (60%
of the P295 billion in investments)
EPIRA
IPPs
SPUG
SPEX in Malampaya
45 % Shell, 45 % ChevronTexaco
10% to be sold
42. Philippines rich in energy sources
Nationalization not privatization
Ensure people’s welfare
Strategic planning for sustained
growth
People's control over energy
resources
Build R&D capacity in energy
technologies
