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THE NET LEASE
MARKET REPORT
Q1 2017
	
Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Basis Point
Sector (Previous) (Current) Change
Retail 6.19% 6.19% 0
Office 7.08% 7.12% +4
Industrial 7.17% 7.27% +10
NUMBER OF PROPERTIES
ON THE MARKET
	
Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Percentage
Sector (Previous) (Current) Change
Retail 3,045 3,788 +24.4%
Office 384 395 +2.8%
Industrial 363 359 -1.2%
MEDIAN NATIONAL ASKING VS
CLOSED CAP RATE SPREAD
MARKET OVERVIEW
Cap rates in the first quarter of 2017 for the single tenant net
lease retail sector remained at 6.19% after experiencing their first
increase since the third quarter of 2013 in the prior quarter. Cap
rates for the office and industrial sectors increased by 4 and 10
basis points to 7.12% and 7.27% respectively. Following a robust
2015 with over $58 billion in net lease sales, 2016 experienced
a slight decline in transaction volume of approximately 7% to
approximately $54 billion according to CoStar. The slowdown
in 2016 transaction volume can be mostly attributed to the
uncertainty surrounding rising interest rates and the future results
of the 2016 election.
In the first quarter of 2017, the net lease market experienced a
significant new supply of properties to the market. The overall
market increased its supply by approximately 20% when
compared to the fourth quarter of 2016. The majority of the supply
increase came from the retail sector which increased by 24%.
The overall sentiment is that we are in the late stages of this real
estate cycle. Accordingly, property owners are selling assets in
the current market to take advantage of the historically low cap
rate environment.
The overall net lease market remains active with 1031 and private
investors due to the passive nature of the leases and stable
investment returns that the net lease asset class can provide. In
2016, the majority of all transactions were facilitated by private
investors. Private investors typically prefer long term leases to
credit tenants. Accordingly, during the first quarter cap rates for
recently constructed properties tenanted by Advance Auto Parts
and CVS compressed by 15 and 25 basis points, respectively,
despite the overall market.
The net lease market is expected to remain active in 2017 as
investor demand, especially private investor demand, for this asset
class remains. As noted in a recent national survey conducted
by The Boulder Group, the effect of interest rates on cap rate
volatility will be the primary focus for net lease participants, as
most net lease participants believe that cap rates will increase by
the end of 2017.
NATIONAL ASKING CAP RATES
	
Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Basis Point
Sector (Previous) (Current) Change
Retail 31 29 -2
Office 31 26 -5
Industrial 32 26 -6
www.bouldergroup.com
THE NET LEASE
MARKET REPORT
Q1 2017
SELECTED SINGLE TENANT SALES COMPARABLES
Sale
Date Sector Tenant City State Price
Price
Per SF
Cap
Rate
Lease Term
Remaining
Jan-17 Office Kaiser Permanente Cupertino CA $66,865,000 $666 6.00% 6
Feb-17 Industrial Best Buy Findlay OH $46,000,000 $45 7.00% 9
Jan-17 Office Comcast Corporation Miramar FL $22,750,000 $247 6.75% 9
Jan-17 Retail BJ's Warehouse Tampa FL $17,966,578 $150 6.75% 10
Mar-17 Retail Home Depot Memphis TN $15,692,308 $154 6.50% 10
Jan-17 Office Allstate Insurance Company Lone Tree CO $14,750,000 $210 7.04% 9
Feb-17 Industrial Amazon.com New Century KS $14,400,000 $32 5.99% 9
Jan-17 Retail Walgreens Wayzata MN $11,720,000 $774 5.25% 19
Feb-17 Retail CVS Pharmacy Brockton MA $9,050,000 $702 5.13% 25
Feb-17 Retail Walgreens Spring Hill FL $7,780,000 $471 5.03% 20
Feb-17 Office Social Security Administration (SSA) Wichita KS $6,350,000 $258 8.33% 7
Jan-17 Retail Walgreens Spring TX $6,300,000 $433 5.40% 11
Jan-17 Industrial FedEx Ground Rock Springs WY $5,705,000 $213 6.75% 9
Feb-17 Retail Wal-Mart Supercenter Orangevale CA $5,446,000 $56 5.00% 9
Feb-17 Retail Goodwill Henderson NV $5,100,000 $300 6.61% 15
Mar-17 Retail Tractor Supply Co. New Windsor NY $5,000,000 $262 6.10% 15
NET LEASE CAP RATE TRENDS
Retail Office Industrial
5.75%
6.25%
6.75%
7.25%
7.75%
8.25%
8.75%
Q1
2004
Q4
2004
Q3
2005
Q2
2006
Q1
2007
Q4
2007
Q3
2008
Q2
2009
Q1
2010
Q4
2010
Q3
2011
Q2
2012
Q1
2013
Q4
2013
Q3
2014
Q2
2015
Q1
2016
Q4
2016
www.bouldergroup.com
THE NET LEASE
MARKET REPORT
Q1 2017
© 2017. The Boulder Group. Information herein has been obtained from databases owned and maintained by The Boulder Group as well as third party sources. We have not verified the
information and we make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. This information is provided for general illustrative purposes and not for any specific recommendation or purpose
nor under any circumstances shall any of the above information be deemed legal advice or counsel. Reliance on this information is at the risk of the reader and The Boulder Group expressly
disclaims any liability arising from the use of such information. This information is designed exclusively for use by The Boulder Group clients and cannot be reproduced, retransmitted or
distributed without the express written consent of The Boulder Group.
FOR MORE INFORMATION
AUTHOR
John Feeney | Vice President
john@bouldergroup.com
Randy Blankstein | President
randy@bouldergroup.com
Jimmy Goodman | Partner
jimmy@bouldergroup.com
Asher Wenig | Vice President
asher@bouldergroup.com
CONTRIBUTORS
Scott Harris | Analyst
scott@bouldergroup.com
Tenant 2012-2017 2005-2011 2000-2004 Pre 2000
7-Eleven 4.75% 5.10% 5.70% 6.30%
Advance Auto Parts 5.50% 6.60% 7.30% 8.60%
AutoZone 5.00% 5.50% 5.70% 6.00%
Bank of America 4.50% 5.00% 5.40% 5.60%
Chase Bank 4.40% 4.80% 5.10% 5.30%
CVS Pharmacy 4.75% 5.60% 6.00% 6.35%
DaVita Dialysis Center 5.70% 6.31% 6.90% 8.00%
Dollar General 6.70% 7.25% 8.00% 9.10%
Family Dollar 6.60% 7.40% 8.10% 9.00%
FedEx 6.00% 6.45% 7.15% 7.50%
Fresenius 5.80% 6.50% 6.75% 8.00%
McDonald's (GL) 4.00% 4.40% 4.70% N/A
O'Reilly Auto Parts 5.50% 6.00% 6.25% 6.80%
Rite Aid 6.10% 7.04% 7.85% 8.40%
Starbucks 5.00% 5.18% 6.10% 6.90%
Walgreens 5.30% 5.90% 6.25% 7.00%
MEDIAN ASKING CAP RATES BY YEAR BUILT

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Net Lease Investment Outlook

  • 1. www.bouldergroup.com THE NET LEASE MARKET REPORT Q1 2017 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Basis Point Sector (Previous) (Current) Change Retail 6.19% 6.19% 0 Office 7.08% 7.12% +4 Industrial 7.17% 7.27% +10 NUMBER OF PROPERTIES ON THE MARKET Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Percentage Sector (Previous) (Current) Change Retail 3,045 3,788 +24.4% Office 384 395 +2.8% Industrial 363 359 -1.2% MEDIAN NATIONAL ASKING VS CLOSED CAP RATE SPREAD MARKET OVERVIEW Cap rates in the first quarter of 2017 for the single tenant net lease retail sector remained at 6.19% after experiencing their first increase since the third quarter of 2013 in the prior quarter. Cap rates for the office and industrial sectors increased by 4 and 10 basis points to 7.12% and 7.27% respectively. Following a robust 2015 with over $58 billion in net lease sales, 2016 experienced a slight decline in transaction volume of approximately 7% to approximately $54 billion according to CoStar. The slowdown in 2016 transaction volume can be mostly attributed to the uncertainty surrounding rising interest rates and the future results of the 2016 election. In the first quarter of 2017, the net lease market experienced a significant new supply of properties to the market. The overall market increased its supply by approximately 20% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2016. The majority of the supply increase came from the retail sector which increased by 24%. The overall sentiment is that we are in the late stages of this real estate cycle. Accordingly, property owners are selling assets in the current market to take advantage of the historically low cap rate environment. The overall net lease market remains active with 1031 and private investors due to the passive nature of the leases and stable investment returns that the net lease asset class can provide. In 2016, the majority of all transactions were facilitated by private investors. Private investors typically prefer long term leases to credit tenants. Accordingly, during the first quarter cap rates for recently constructed properties tenanted by Advance Auto Parts and CVS compressed by 15 and 25 basis points, respectively, despite the overall market. The net lease market is expected to remain active in 2017 as investor demand, especially private investor demand, for this asset class remains. As noted in a recent national survey conducted by The Boulder Group, the effect of interest rates on cap rate volatility will be the primary focus for net lease participants, as most net lease participants believe that cap rates will increase by the end of 2017. NATIONAL ASKING CAP RATES Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Basis Point Sector (Previous) (Current) Change Retail 31 29 -2 Office 31 26 -5 Industrial 32 26 -6
  • 2. www.bouldergroup.com THE NET LEASE MARKET REPORT Q1 2017 SELECTED SINGLE TENANT SALES COMPARABLES Sale Date Sector Tenant City State Price Price Per SF Cap Rate Lease Term Remaining Jan-17 Office Kaiser Permanente Cupertino CA $66,865,000 $666 6.00% 6 Feb-17 Industrial Best Buy Findlay OH $46,000,000 $45 7.00% 9 Jan-17 Office Comcast Corporation Miramar FL $22,750,000 $247 6.75% 9 Jan-17 Retail BJ's Warehouse Tampa FL $17,966,578 $150 6.75% 10 Mar-17 Retail Home Depot Memphis TN $15,692,308 $154 6.50% 10 Jan-17 Office Allstate Insurance Company Lone Tree CO $14,750,000 $210 7.04% 9 Feb-17 Industrial Amazon.com New Century KS $14,400,000 $32 5.99% 9 Jan-17 Retail Walgreens Wayzata MN $11,720,000 $774 5.25% 19 Feb-17 Retail CVS Pharmacy Brockton MA $9,050,000 $702 5.13% 25 Feb-17 Retail Walgreens Spring Hill FL $7,780,000 $471 5.03% 20 Feb-17 Office Social Security Administration (SSA) Wichita KS $6,350,000 $258 8.33% 7 Jan-17 Retail Walgreens Spring TX $6,300,000 $433 5.40% 11 Jan-17 Industrial FedEx Ground Rock Springs WY $5,705,000 $213 6.75% 9 Feb-17 Retail Wal-Mart Supercenter Orangevale CA $5,446,000 $56 5.00% 9 Feb-17 Retail Goodwill Henderson NV $5,100,000 $300 6.61% 15 Mar-17 Retail Tractor Supply Co. New Windsor NY $5,000,000 $262 6.10% 15 NET LEASE CAP RATE TRENDS Retail Office Industrial 5.75% 6.25% 6.75% 7.25% 7.75% 8.25% 8.75% Q1 2004 Q4 2004 Q3 2005 Q2 2006 Q1 2007 Q4 2007 Q3 2008 Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q4 2010 Q3 2011 Q2 2012 Q1 2013 Q4 2013 Q3 2014 Q2 2015 Q1 2016 Q4 2016
  • 3. www.bouldergroup.com THE NET LEASE MARKET REPORT Q1 2017 © 2017. The Boulder Group. Information herein has been obtained from databases owned and maintained by The Boulder Group as well as third party sources. We have not verified the information and we make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. This information is provided for general illustrative purposes and not for any specific recommendation or purpose nor under any circumstances shall any of the above information be deemed legal advice or counsel. Reliance on this information is at the risk of the reader and The Boulder Group expressly disclaims any liability arising from the use of such information. This information is designed exclusively for use by The Boulder Group clients and cannot be reproduced, retransmitted or distributed without the express written consent of The Boulder Group. FOR MORE INFORMATION AUTHOR John Feeney | Vice President john@bouldergroup.com Randy Blankstein | President randy@bouldergroup.com Jimmy Goodman | Partner jimmy@bouldergroup.com Asher Wenig | Vice President asher@bouldergroup.com CONTRIBUTORS Scott Harris | Analyst scott@bouldergroup.com Tenant 2012-2017 2005-2011 2000-2004 Pre 2000 7-Eleven 4.75% 5.10% 5.70% 6.30% Advance Auto Parts 5.50% 6.60% 7.30% 8.60% AutoZone 5.00% 5.50% 5.70% 6.00% Bank of America 4.50% 5.00% 5.40% 5.60% Chase Bank 4.40% 4.80% 5.10% 5.30% CVS Pharmacy 4.75% 5.60% 6.00% 6.35% DaVita Dialysis Center 5.70% 6.31% 6.90% 8.00% Dollar General 6.70% 7.25% 8.00% 9.10% Family Dollar 6.60% 7.40% 8.10% 9.00% FedEx 6.00% 6.45% 7.15% 7.50% Fresenius 5.80% 6.50% 6.75% 8.00% McDonald's (GL) 4.00% 4.40% 4.70% N/A O'Reilly Auto Parts 5.50% 6.00% 6.25% 6.80% Rite Aid 6.10% 7.04% 7.85% 8.40% Starbucks 5.00% 5.18% 6.10% 6.90% Walgreens 5.30% 5.90% 6.25% 7.00% MEDIAN ASKING CAP RATES BY YEAR BUILT