More Related Content
Similar to NERFC Water Services_RIFMA2016
NERFC Water Services_RIFMA2016
- 1. Building a Weather-ReadyNation Moving from Point Specific to Street Level Hydrologic Forecasting David R. Vallee Hydrologist-in-Charge Northeast River Forecast Center david.vallee@noaa.gov http://weather.gov/nerfc A Look At Current & Future Hydrologic Forecast Services;
- 2. 13 River ForecastCenters Our Mission: To provide our nation with river, flood and water resource forecasts for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.
- 3. River Forecast CenterResponsibilities Calibrate and implement variety of hydrologic and hydraulic models and produce temperature and precipitation forecasts to provide: River flow and stage forecasts at 200 locations Guidance on the rainfall needed to produce Flash Flooding Ensemble streamflow predictions Ice Jam and Dam Break support Water Supply forecasts Reservoir Inflow Forecasts Moderate flooding - Connecticut River at Portland, CT.
- 4. Weather Forecast Office NewYork/New England Service Areas WFO Caribou, ME Northeast Maine counties WFO Gray, ME Southwest Maine and New Hampshire WFO Burlington, VT Northern 2/3rds of VT WFO Albany, NY Srn 1/3 of VT, Berkshire, MA, Litchfield, CT WFO Taunton, MA Rest of MA, all of RI, and the northern 2/3rds of CT WFO Upton, NY All coastal CT Counties WFO Binghamton, NY Finger Lakes region WFO Buffalo, NY Buffalo Creeks, Genesee and Black
- 5. Weather Forecast Office Responsibilities Watch/Warning responsibilities Coordinate final adjustments to RFC forecasts for warning issuances Issue and coordinate all watches/warnings with local interests Flood/Flash Flood Drought/Water Resource Hydrologic Outlooks Define forecast service requirements Establish flood stages and impact statements for forecast points Work with RFC on developing modeling requirements Provide Decision Support Services to the Decision Makers in the region
- 6. River Flood ForecastServices for Rhode Island Blackstone River Northbridge, MA Woonsocket, RI Pawtuxet River Scituate Reservoir Inflow and Downstream discharge Cranston, RI (high flow only) Pawcatuck River Wood River Junction Westerly (Tidal) Wood River at Hope Valley
- 7. None of ourservices are possible without the tremendous work of the U.S. Geological Survey Gaging Experts Maintaining the gage networks Streamflow, ground water Rapid Deployment gages Rivers and in tidal areas! Providing critical historical archives Providing/Maintaining the Ratings (stage vs. flow) Technical studies expertise Hydraulic modeling expertise Flood Inundation Mapping http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ri/nwis/rt
- 8. Forecast Services On AWatershed Scale Requirements: Observed precipitation Observed temperatures Forecast temperatures and precipitation Drainage area ≤ 100 sqmi Our models help us forecast: The volume of water in the river & that’s converted to stage/elevation Time of the peak elevation & duration Soil moisture & Snow melt Unit hydrograph theory Reservoir Operations Hydraulics (HES-RAS) for complex river systems Tidal reaches Lake Champlain, Farmington River
- 9. Precipitation Assimilation Gage-only andRadar/Gage Multi-sensor Estimation Hourly Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimation (Radar / Gage Mosaic) Hourly Multi-Sensor Grid Production (1 hour grid analysis)
- 10. Community Hydrologic PredictionSystem Snow water simulations Streamflow simulations Forecast snowmelt Soil Moisture Modeling
- 11. The End Result OurGraphical and Text Forecasts
- 12. NERFC Self-Briefing Page http://www.weather.gov/nerfc- “Additional Info”
- 14. Meteorology Member-based Ensemble RiverForecast System (MMEF) http://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs • Operational guidance system which produces river forecasts based on 3 Numerical Model Ensemble Systems: • Global Ensemble Forecast System • North American Ensemble System • Short Range Ensemble System • Temperature and precipitation forcings from each member of a given system are run through the operational NERFC river forecasting system • Drives a suite of graphical guidance showing spread & uncertainty • Output includes; • River flows • Temperatures • Precipitation • Snowmelt
- 16. Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Weekly and 90 day probabilities of exceedence Based only on historical time series and historical meteorological forcing No real-time medium/long range forcings at this time
- 17. Looking Toward TheFuture: National Water Model & Improved Ensemble Prediction GLOBAL NATIONAL WATERSHED STREET Actionable Water Intelligence National Water Center
- 18. Hydrological Ensemble ForecastSystem Set to replace the ESP approach later this year Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting System (HEFS) • Forced by the mean Global Ensemble Forecast System temps & precip 15 days • Climate Forecast System forcings from day 16-270 • Spread derived by parameters based on past forecast system precipitation performance (hindcasts)
- 19. Network River Flow •A community-based hydrologic modeling framework supported by NCAR • Built upon the WRF-HYDRO Model Architecture • Not dependent on a particular forcing data source or choice of Land-Surface Model (LSM) • Able to operate over multiple scales and with multiple physics options The National Water Model Super-resolution Nets
- 20.
- 21. WRF-Hydro Operational Configuration Short-RangeLong-Range Analysis & Assimilation Hourly Hourly Daily (16 mem) - 3 hrs Cycling Frequency 0-18 hours 0-30 days Forecast Duration 1km/250m/NHDPlus Reach 1km/250m/NHDPlus Reach 1 km/NHDPlus Reach Spatial Discretization & Routing MRMS blend/ HRRR/RAP bkgnd. Downscaled HRRR/RAP blend Downscaled & bias-corrected CFS Meteorological Forcing Medium-Range Daily 0-10 days 1km/250m/NHDPlus Reach Downscaled GFS Reservoirs (1615 water bodies parameterized with level pool scheme) Assimilation of USGS Obs 21
- 22. • Hydrologic Output –River channel discharge and velocity at 2.6 million river reaches – Surface water depth and subsurface flow (250 m CONUS+ grid) • Land Surface Output – 1km CONUS+ grid – Soil and snow pack states – Energy and water fluxes • Direct-output and value-added geo-intelligence products 22 WRF-HYDRO IOC PRODUCTS Current NWS river forecast points (red) WRF-Hydro forecast points (blue) 22 Current NWS River Forecast Points (circles) Overlaid with WRF-Hydro Stream Reaches 22 WRF-Hydro DOMAIN
- 23.
- 24. 24 Hydrography, AHPS ForecastPoints 1000 km ABRFC MBRFC LMRFC NCRFC OHRFC
- 25. 25 NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE Hospitals, EMS& Fire Stations Full Resolution National Hydrography Dataset NHD+ AHPS Forecast Point James River at Galena, MO 150 km Springfield, MO
- 26. 26 NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE Hospitals, EMS& Fire Stations 18 km 1 KM resolution 250 m resolution
- 27. NWS Water Prediction Ourfocus over the next 3-5 years TOMORROW • Approximately 4500 forecast locations at points • Driven by large catchment “lumped” modeling • Requires: – Precipitation and Air Temperature (averaged over watershed) – Reservoir Information – River Network Topology – Hydraulic modeling for large channels – Stream Gage Data – General Impacts near Gages – Local servers and storage TODAY • Approximately 2,700,000 forecast stream reaches • Driven by high/hyper resolution Earth System modeling • Requires: – Full high-resolution meteorological suite – Reservoir Information – Stream Network Topology – Hydraulic modeling for small channels – High Resolution Terrain Data – Land Cover Change Data – Stream Gage Data (enhanced) – Reach-based Inundation Mapping and Impacts – Centralized high-performance computing 27
- 28. Building a Weather-ReadyNation Moving from Point Specific to Street Level Hydrologic Forecasting David R. Vallee Hydrologist-in-Charge Northeast River Forecast Center david.vallee@noaa.gov http://weather.gov/nerfc A Look At Current & Future Hydrologic Forecast Services;