Yesterday early morning, there was a meeting of the Toronto Condo Network and we had a great discussion about the Toronto Condo market with Consultant N. Barry Lyons who is an expert in what is happening in the Toronto Condo marketplace.

1. Industry at a Crossroads?
Presentation to the Toronto Condo Network
By: N. Barry Lyon and Jasmine Cracknell
February 22nd, 2013
Toronto Skyline - 2004
Future Toronto Skyline
Future Downtown Toronto Core
Source: All pictures from Urban Toronto, courtesy of Scott Dickson
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

2. High-Rise Marketplace Yearly New Sales and Resales
Greater Toronto Area, 2002 to 2013F
60,000
50,000 Resales
New Sales
40,000 51%
# Units
52%
58%
30,000
44%
55% 50% 56%
49% 52%
57%
20,000 49%
49%
10,000 48% 42%
45% 50% 56%
43% 51% 44% 48%
51%
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Monthly High-Rise New Sales and Resales and Average Pricing
Greater Toronto Area, 2006 to 2012
4,500 $500,000
New Sales Resales New Price Resale Price
4,000 $450,000
3,500 $400,000
$350,000
3,000
Average Sale Price
$300,000
# Unit Sales
2,500
$250,000
2,000
$200,000
1,500
$150,000
1,000 $100,000
500 $50,000
0 $0
Jan-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Oct-12
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

3. New High-Rise Sales 905 vs 416
Greater Toronto Area, 2006 to 2011
25,000
2005
20,000
2006
2007
Total Sales (# Units)
15,000 2008
2009
2010
10,000
2011
2012
5,000
0
905 416
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
New High-Rise Sales
By Former 416 Municipalities, 2006 to 2011
14,000
12,000 2005
2006
10,000
2007
Total Sales (# Units)
8,000 2008
2009
6,000 2010
2011
4,000 2012
2,000
0
Etobicoke North York Scarborough Toronto
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

4. New High-Rise Sales
By 905 Municipalities, 2006 to 2011
3,000
2005
2006
2,500
2007
2008
2,000
2009
Total Sales (# Units)
2010
1,500 2011
2012
1,000
500
0
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

5. New High-Rise Sales By Unit Type
Greater Toronto Area, 2006
Penthouse Other
3 Bedroom & Up 2% 1%
2%
2 Bedroom + Den
9% Studio
5%
1 Bedroom
24%
2 Bedroom
23%
1 Bedroom + Den
34%
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
New High-Rise Sales By Unit Type
Penthouse Greater Toronto Area, 2012
3% Other
1% Studio
3%
3 Bedroom & Up
2%
1 Bedroom
19%
2 Bedroom + Den
16%
1 Bedroom + Den
2 Bedroom 26%
30%
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

6. New High-Rise Unsold Inventory and Site Count
Greater Toronto Area, 2005 to 2012
25000 500
High Rise Inventory
450
High Rise Site Count
20000 400
Unsold Inventory (# of Units)
# of Active High-Rise Site
350
15000 300
250
10000 200
150
5000 100
50
0 0
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
New High-Rise Occupancies Greater Toronto Area, 2000 to 2017F
1,910
2016 7,118
17,772
2014 47,581
19,197
2012 10,575
14,223
2010 16,304
11,259
2008 12,957
15,407
2006 14,361
15,046
2004 10,066
12,279
2002 9,832
3,906
2000 8,534
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Total Units
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

7. Planned New Downtown Toronto Office Buildings
Source: Colliers International
PATH System South of Front Street – at 1 York (Menkes and HOOPP Realty Inc.)
Source: Urban Toronto
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

8. New Union Pearson (Airport) Express – Planned Station at Union
Source: Union Pearson Express a division of Metrolinx
Dundas West – Bloor Mobility Hub
Source: Metrolinx
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

9. Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown
Source: Metrolinx
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

10. Avenues Projects – Neighbourhood Oriented
The Rushton – St. Clair Avenue West
Source: Site Marketing Materials
Carmelina Condominiums – Danforth Avenue
Source: Site Marketing Materials
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

11. 2013 – The Year of Incentives
 3rd deal - Receive $3,500 bonus*
 5th deal - Receive an additional $2,000
for a total of $5,500 bonus*
 7th deal - Receive an additional $2,500
for a total of $8,000 bonus*
 10th deal - Receive an additional
$4,000
for a total of $12,000 bonus*
 15th deal -Receive an additional $6,000
for a total of $18,000 bonus*
(Each deal must firm up to qualify)
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

12. Downtown East Gathering Momentum
Canary District - Pan Am Athlete’s Village, Under Construction
Our Questions For The Condo Network
1) Is this a normal market slowdown or something else?
2) What are the current buyer attitudes?
3) Is there any interest in upgrading into newer condominiums?
4) Where are the young families going?
5) Are the empty nesters back?
6) Do you think the investors will be back in large numbers?
7) Do you see a glut of small units coming to the market?
8) If you had the choice, where would you locate a new condominium apartment project and what
would it contain?
9) Do you see lower GTA immigration and a slowing Canadian economy affecting the market?
10) Are there any other questions we should be asking ourselves?
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100 Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com