Creating value in a
deleveraging environment
Bart De Smet
CEO Ageas

Morgan Stanley Conference
London – 29 March 2012
Value creation at Ageas
Work on various levers to come to a more comprehensive story

Insurance


Operational performance






General Account

Life: investment yield
Non-Life: combined ratio

Profit generation
Value creation






Reduce complexity & volatility
Solve legacies

Embedded Value
New business

Simplify Ageas’s story

Constant strive to optimize the use of capital

Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012
9/30/2009

1
Value Life Insurance
Mix of ensuring sustained profit levels vs. long term value enhancing initiatives
+ EUR 734 mio

342

309

2,446

Year‐start 2011

Year‐end 2011

11
20
d

No
rm
al
iz
e

Ga
in
s/
Lo

Ot
he
r

ss
es

ill
dw

64
Asia
Continental Europe
UK

3,360

Ca
p

Value added by New Business (VANB) (EUR mio)

3,686

638
440
162

Go
o

Im

pa
ir
m
en
ts

ts
Eq
ui
ti
es

ek
Gr
e

Embedded Value (EV) (EUR mio)
649
814
157

309

(600)

im
pa
irm
en

11
20
FY

No
rm
al
iz
e

d

20

10

(425)

4,980

+147**

(99)

(172)

Belgium

32

23
0
51
43
(2)

(1)
(15)
(3)

Year‐start 2011

Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012

Year‐end 2011

2
Value Non-Life Insurance
Improved operational performance should drive higher net profits
+ EUR 63 mio
+2

(38)
(27)

102.4%

104.2%

11

No

rm
al
iz
ed

20

er
Ot
h

th
er
W
ea

ss
es

Combined ratio UK
108.2%

109.5%

105%

99.9%

100%

145

Ad
ve
rs
e

Ga
in
s/
Lo

Ca
p

pa
ir
m
en
ts
Im

Eq
ui
ti
es

Im
pa
irm
en
ts

20

Gr
ee
k

FY

110%

110%
105%

11

10
20
rm
al
iz
ed
No

115%

Combined ratio Belgium*

+10

82

81

115%

(9)

95%

99.9%

100%
95%

90%

90%
2009

2010

2011

2009

2010

2011

* Excluding Workmen’s Compensation
Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012

3
Value General Account: Clarity gained on valuation legacy issues
Volatility remains but partially offsetting
Call option on BNP Paribas shares

RPN(i)

In EUR mio

In EUR mio
Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11

Average 587

(145)

759

(316)

836
609

581

611

694

436

361

395

(442)

(340)
(496)

(465)

(190)

(583)
(722)

Average (411)

Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11

RPI

Sum of legacies +/- EUR 1bn

In EUR mio

In EUR mio
108

Average 876
505
(271)

1,027
760

760

840

933

913

899

850

779

Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11

Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012

(290)
(275)

56

(82)

208

1,025

984

Q4 09

Q4 11

4
Solution around CASHES is important step forward
Transaction settled on 26 March 2012


Rationale for Ageas


Reduced credit risk to Fortis Bank

EUR 4.6 bn  EUR 2.8 bn



Decreased volatility in results

RPN(I) volatility



Improved liquidity position



Result of the offer : 63% converted



Impact on Net Cash position:



Impact on Net Result (in Q1 12) :

EUR 953 mio redemption Tier 1
EUR (287) mio indemnifications paid
--------------------EUR 666 mio



EUR 131 mio Tier 1 redemption
EUR 21 mio release RPN(I) liability
EUR (299) mio indemnifications paid
--------------------EUR (147) mio

Limited influence on equity & solvency of General Account

Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012

+/- (2%)

5
General Account: good grasp of outstanding legacy issues
Ageas does not expect new major litigation issues to rise
June 09

June 10

Receipt report Belgian
experts (Van
Gerven/Horsmans)

Receipt report Dutch experts
(Ondernemingskamer)

May 10

February 11

US class action
dismissed

Claim re FRESH hybrid
instrument dismissed by
Brussels Court

2009

May 11
- Claim dismissed of
VEB/Deminor and
FortisEffect by Amsterdam
Court
- Rotterdam court confirmed
fine AFM I: appeal filed

2010

February 12
- Rotterdam court confirmed
fine AFM II; appeal to be filed
- Utrecht court re
communication May-June
2008 in favour of plaintiffs;
appeal to be filed

2011

2012

June 09

Sep- Dec 10

November 11

March 12

Ageas claims
compensation with
respect to “FCC
preferred shares” from
Fortis Bank NL

Ageas starts legal procedure
against Dutch State & ABN AMRO
to obtain compensation in return for
conversion of Mandatory
Convertible Securities (MCS) into
Ageas’ shares

Receipt report
Belgian experts (Cats,
Smets, De Bodt)

Brussels Commercial Court
dismissed all claims initiated
by former MCS holders

Timing and (financial) outcome remains hard to estimate….
In many legal proceedings still at the stage of first instance
To be expected before end June 2012
 Judgment of Ondernemingskamer re mismanagement
Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012

6
Ageas applies a conservative solvency calculation methodology
IFRS Solvency remains solid & well above required minimum
Ageas’ solvency calculation methodology : any
unrealized loss on fixed income on balance is
deducted, any net unrealized gain is eliminated.

Solvency I Belgium

Ageas passed very successfully the EIOPA
solvency stress tests for Belgium & Portugal with
simulated Solvency II ratios exceeding the
average of the European industry in all stress test
scenarios adopted.
Solvency II Belgium

IFRS Solvency ratio :198%
Ageas Insurance ratio: 227%

AG Insurance EIOPA solvency II ratio (MCR): 517%
Average Insurance industry :
380%

Based on 31/12/10 data

Insurance Solvency Ratio Ageas
as reported
In EUR bn
229%

226%

6.4

6.6

207%

227%

6.8

2.8
Q4 09

Q4 10

Total available capital
Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012

7.5

6.4

3.6

3.1

3.0

2.9
Q2 10

207%

Q2 11

Q4 11

Required Minimum Margin (RMM)
7
Ageas strives for an optimal use of cash
Almost equal share of three alternative uses of cash since 2009
Invest in Businesses




Organic growth
Selective acquisitions
Create new partnerships

Return to shareholders



Dividend payment
Share buy back

Return to debtholders


Debt buy back (EMTN)

May 2009 – March 2012:
+/- EUR 740 mio
+/- EUR 450 mio UK (Tesco, KFIS,
Castle Cover)
 +/- EUR 190 mio CEU (Italy, Turkey)
 +/- EUR 100 mio Asia (India, HK)


Going forward :
Insurance:
General Account:

Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012
9/30/2009

+/- EUR 850 mio
+/- EUR 600 mio constant dividend
over 2009, 2010 & 2011
 EUR 250 mio share buy-back finalized
early 2012

+/- EUR 700 mio





+/- EUR 700 mio EMTN program
redeemed (31/12/2011)

Lower growth in capital intense savings business
Increased proportion of Non-Life and Fee related business
Net cash position at EUR 1.3 bn (before dividend payment)

8
Ageas announced a share buy-back program on 24 August 2011
Program successfully completed on 25 January 2012
Ageas stock price in EUR

1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9

23/08/2011
Day before announcement of
share buy-back program
Ageas at EUR 1.09/share

Share price + 34%

25/01/2012
Announcement of finalization
share buy-back program
Ageas at EUR 1.46/share



192 mio shares bought back (7.33%) for EUR 250 mio



Cancellation of acquired shares proposed at next shareholders’ meetings (25 & 26/04/12)

Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012

9
Ageas’s operational priorities 2012





Review/ Rethink strategic asset
allocation



Make further progress on unwinding
legacy issues



Disciplined capital management



Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012

Confirm & further improve operational
performance

Prepare for regulatory changes
10

Morgan Stanley conference 2012

  • 1.
    Creating value ina deleveraging environment Bart De Smet CEO Ageas Morgan Stanley Conference London – 29 March 2012
  • 2.
    Value creation atAgeas Work on various levers to come to a more comprehensive story Insurance  Operational performance     General Account Life: investment yield Non-Life: combined ratio Profit generation Value creation     Reduce complexity & volatility Solve legacies Embedded Value New business Simplify Ageas’s story Constant strive to optimize the use of capital Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012 9/30/2009 1
  • 3.
    Value Life Insurance Mixof ensuring sustained profit levels vs. long term value enhancing initiatives + EUR 734 mio 342 309 2,446 Year‐start 2011 Year‐end 2011 11 20 d No rm al iz e Ga in s/ Lo Ot he r ss es ill dw 64 Asia Continental Europe UK 3,360 Ca p Value added by New Business (VANB) (EUR mio) 3,686 638 440 162 Go o Im pa ir m en ts ts Eq ui ti es ek Gr e Embedded Value (EV) (EUR mio) 649 814 157 309 (600) im pa irm en 11 20 FY No rm al iz e d 20 10 (425) 4,980 +147** (99) (172) Belgium 32 23 0 51 43 (2) (1) (15) (3) Year‐start 2011 Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012 Year‐end 2011 2
  • 4.
    Value Non-Life Insurance Improvedoperational performance should drive higher net profits + EUR 63 mio +2 (38) (27) 102.4% 104.2% 11 No rm al iz ed 20 er Ot h th er W ea ss es Combined ratio UK 108.2% 109.5% 105% 99.9% 100% 145 Ad ve rs e Ga in s/ Lo Ca p pa ir m en ts Im Eq ui ti es Im pa irm en ts 20 Gr ee k FY 110% 110% 105% 11 10 20 rm al iz ed No 115% Combined ratio Belgium* +10 82 81 115% (9) 95% 99.9% 100% 95% 90% 90% 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 * Excluding Workmen’s Compensation Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012 3
  • 5.
    Value General Account:Clarity gained on valuation legacy issues Volatility remains but partially offsetting Call option on BNP Paribas shares RPN(i) In EUR mio In EUR mio Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Average 587 (145) 759 (316) 836 609 581 611 694 436 361 395 (442) (340) (496) (465) (190) (583) (722) Average (411) Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 RPI Sum of legacies +/- EUR 1bn In EUR mio In EUR mio 108 Average 876 505 (271) 1,027 760 760 840 933 913 899 850 779 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012 (290) (275) 56 (82) 208 1,025 984 Q4 09 Q4 11 4
  • 6.
    Solution around CASHESis important step forward Transaction settled on 26 March 2012  Rationale for Ageas  Reduced credit risk to Fortis Bank EUR 4.6 bn  EUR 2.8 bn  Decreased volatility in results RPN(I) volatility  Improved liquidity position  Result of the offer : 63% converted  Impact on Net Cash position:  Impact on Net Result (in Q1 12) : EUR 953 mio redemption Tier 1 EUR (287) mio indemnifications paid --------------------EUR 666 mio  EUR 131 mio Tier 1 redemption EUR 21 mio release RPN(I) liability EUR (299) mio indemnifications paid --------------------EUR (147) mio Limited influence on equity & solvency of General Account Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012 +/- (2%) 5
  • 7.
    General Account: goodgrasp of outstanding legacy issues Ageas does not expect new major litigation issues to rise June 09 June 10 Receipt report Belgian experts (Van Gerven/Horsmans) Receipt report Dutch experts (Ondernemingskamer) May 10 February 11 US class action dismissed Claim re FRESH hybrid instrument dismissed by Brussels Court 2009 May 11 - Claim dismissed of VEB/Deminor and FortisEffect by Amsterdam Court - Rotterdam court confirmed fine AFM I: appeal filed 2010 February 12 - Rotterdam court confirmed fine AFM II; appeal to be filed - Utrecht court re communication May-June 2008 in favour of plaintiffs; appeal to be filed 2011 2012 June 09 Sep- Dec 10 November 11 March 12 Ageas claims compensation with respect to “FCC preferred shares” from Fortis Bank NL Ageas starts legal procedure against Dutch State & ABN AMRO to obtain compensation in return for conversion of Mandatory Convertible Securities (MCS) into Ageas’ shares Receipt report Belgian experts (Cats, Smets, De Bodt) Brussels Commercial Court dismissed all claims initiated by former MCS holders Timing and (financial) outcome remains hard to estimate…. In many legal proceedings still at the stage of first instance To be expected before end June 2012  Judgment of Ondernemingskamer re mismanagement Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012 6
  • 8.
    Ageas applies aconservative solvency calculation methodology IFRS Solvency remains solid & well above required minimum Ageas’ solvency calculation methodology : any unrealized loss on fixed income on balance is deducted, any net unrealized gain is eliminated. Solvency I Belgium Ageas passed very successfully the EIOPA solvency stress tests for Belgium & Portugal with simulated Solvency II ratios exceeding the average of the European industry in all stress test scenarios adopted. Solvency II Belgium IFRS Solvency ratio :198% Ageas Insurance ratio: 227% AG Insurance EIOPA solvency II ratio (MCR): 517% Average Insurance industry : 380% Based on 31/12/10 data Insurance Solvency Ratio Ageas as reported In EUR bn 229% 226% 6.4 6.6 207% 227% 6.8 2.8 Q4 09 Q4 10 Total available capital Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012 7.5 6.4 3.6 3.1 3.0 2.9 Q2 10 207% Q2 11 Q4 11 Required Minimum Margin (RMM) 7
  • 9.
    Ageas strives foran optimal use of cash Almost equal share of three alternative uses of cash since 2009 Invest in Businesses    Organic growth Selective acquisitions Create new partnerships Return to shareholders   Dividend payment Share buy back Return to debtholders  Debt buy back (EMTN) May 2009 – March 2012: +/- EUR 740 mio +/- EUR 450 mio UK (Tesco, KFIS, Castle Cover)  +/- EUR 190 mio CEU (Italy, Turkey)  +/- EUR 100 mio Asia (India, HK)  Going forward : Insurance: General Account: Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012 9/30/2009 +/- EUR 850 mio +/- EUR 600 mio constant dividend over 2009, 2010 & 2011  EUR 250 mio share buy-back finalized early 2012 +/- EUR 700 mio   +/- EUR 700 mio EMTN program redeemed (31/12/2011) Lower growth in capital intense savings business Increased proportion of Non-Life and Fee related business Net cash position at EUR 1.3 bn (before dividend payment) 8
  • 10.
    Ageas announced ashare buy-back program on 24 August 2011 Program successfully completed on 25 January 2012 Ageas stock price in EUR 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 23/08/2011 Day before announcement of share buy-back program Ageas at EUR 1.09/share Share price + 34% 25/01/2012 Announcement of finalization share buy-back program Ageas at EUR 1.46/share  192 mio shares bought back (7.33%) for EUR 250 mio  Cancellation of acquired shares proposed at next shareholders’ meetings (25 & 26/04/12) Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012 9
  • 11.
    Ageas’s operational priorities2012   Review/ Rethink strategic asset allocation  Make further progress on unwinding legacy issues  Disciplined capital management  Morgan Stanley Conference I 29 March 2012 Confirm & further improve operational performance Prepare for regulatory changes 10