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More money at retirement
Steven Nathan, CEO 10X Investments
1. Savings
2. Return on savings: after inflation and fees
• Optimal investment portfolios: Maximise risk-adjusted returns
One overriding objective: More money at retirement
Three major challenges for long-term investors
PICTURE GOES
HERE
PICTURE GOES
HERE
PICTURE
GOES HERE
Knowledge gap Behaviour gap Industry practices
Constructing an optimal portfolio: asset allocation, 25% offshore
Ave. real returns
Shares: +7%
Property: +4%
Bonds: +3%
Cash: +1%
Fund return 3.5% 5% 6.5%
75%
50%
25%
25%
50%
75%
Low Equity Medium Equity High Equity
Determining the optimal portfolio
Source: Morningstar, 10X Investments
31.1%
42.9%
61.6%
-35.1%
-39.3% -44.2%
Low Equity Medium Equity High Equity
1 year periods: 1900 - 2012
13.6%
18.9%
25.5%
-13.4% -13.6% -13.9%
Low Equity Medium Equity High Equity
5 year periods: 1900 - 2012
5.8% 7.0% 8.3%
1.5% 2.6% 4.0%
Low Equity Medium Equity High Equity
40 year periods: 1900 - 2012
A four letter word the industry wants you
to ignore. Fees are:
• Hard to calculate, especially conditional fees
• NOT disclosed (except by 10X)
• High vs. 5% to 6% real return
• Each 1% saved = 30% higher final pension
Fees cause you to have less money at retirement
10X
Investment results in the real world
S&P 500 Real returns: 20 years ended 2012. Source: Dulbar, Forbes.com
• SA fund switches cost 4% pa (per Allan Gray Balanced Funds between 2000 – 2010)
SA funds also under-perform
10X Passive Life-stage vs. Forbes Global Best Investment View
Source: Alexander Forbes Global Manager Watch Best Investment View, 10X Investments High Equity Fund (LS 10).
169
159
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
10X Fund manager ave.
Investment Returns % pa: Dec 2012 10X Fund manager ave. 10X Excess return
1 Year 24.1% 20.5% 3.6%
3 Year 15.8% 14.1% 1.7%
5 Year 11.0% 9.8% 1.3%
Very few funds outperformed a passive buy & hold strategy
Investment returns pa BEFORE fees: December 2012 1yr 3yr 5yr
1 Absa Asset Management Global Balanced 20.0%
2 Allan Gray 15.1% 13.1% 10.6%
3 Cadiz Global Balanced 21.5% 13.7% 9.1%
4 Coronation 21.7% 15.8% 12.2%
5 Foord Asset Management 25.6% 17.9% 12.8%
6 Investec Asset Management 20.7% 14.1% 10.7%
7 Investment Solutions (Performer) 20.8% 15.3% 11.0%
8 Investment Solutions (Spectrum) 20.7% 14.6% 9.9%
9 Momentum Balanced 20.1% 13.0% 8.9%
10 Nedgroup Investments XS Diversified Fund of Funds 18.3%
11 Oasis 21.5% 13.9% 7.9%
12 OMIGSA MacroSolutions 20.0% 13.8% 9.0%
13 OMIGSA MacroSolutions (Profile Balanced) 20.0% 13.7% 8.7%
14 Prescient Global Balanced 12.9%
15 Prudential Global Balanced 22.7% 15.7% 11.2%
16 PSG Balanced Fund 15.6%
17 Momentum AM Global Balanced Fund 19.7% 12.6% 8.4%
18 RE: CM 8.3% 10.5% 9.9%
19 SIM Global Unique 20.2% 14.3% 8.8%
20 Stanlib AM 24.6% 17.2% 8.4%
21 Symmetry Managed 23.4%
22 10X Investments LS10 24.1% 15.8% 11.0%
MEDIAN 20.21% 14.00% 9.50%
Source: Alexander Forbes
Global Manager Watch
Best Investment View,
10X Investments High
Equity Fund (LS 10).
• Over-confidence: We can beat the odds in investing
• Recency: We extrapolate recent events in the belief they will persist (chase past performance)
• Heard behaviour: We get comfort from what others are doing without thinking independently
• The industry markets products that play to our emotions
Behaviorial biases we suffer from
Address the three issues that lead to poor retirement outcomes
Knowledge gap: Robust long-term investment plan
1. Life-stage portfolios
2. Minimise fees throughout the value chain
3. Behaviour gap: Stay the course, eliminate irrational temptations, no matter what
• Eliminate choice and active management
• Focus on the long-run not the short-term
• Be sceptical of people with a crystal ball & other talking heads
More money at retirement
Thank you

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More money at retirement by Steven Nathan

  • 1. More money at retirement Steven Nathan, CEO 10X Investments
  • 2. 1. Savings 2. Return on savings: after inflation and fees • Optimal investment portfolios: Maximise risk-adjusted returns One overriding objective: More money at retirement
  • 3. Three major challenges for long-term investors PICTURE GOES HERE PICTURE GOES HERE PICTURE GOES HERE Knowledge gap Behaviour gap Industry practices
  • 4. Constructing an optimal portfolio: asset allocation, 25% offshore Ave. real returns Shares: +7% Property: +4% Bonds: +3% Cash: +1% Fund return 3.5% 5% 6.5% 75% 50% 25% 25% 50% 75% Low Equity Medium Equity High Equity
  • 5. Determining the optimal portfolio Source: Morningstar, 10X Investments 31.1% 42.9% 61.6% -35.1% -39.3% -44.2% Low Equity Medium Equity High Equity 1 year periods: 1900 - 2012 13.6% 18.9% 25.5% -13.4% -13.6% -13.9% Low Equity Medium Equity High Equity 5 year periods: 1900 - 2012 5.8% 7.0% 8.3% 1.5% 2.6% 4.0% Low Equity Medium Equity High Equity 40 year periods: 1900 - 2012
  • 6. A four letter word the industry wants you to ignore. Fees are: • Hard to calculate, especially conditional fees • NOT disclosed (except by 10X) • High vs. 5% to 6% real return • Each 1% saved = 30% higher final pension Fees cause you to have less money at retirement 10X
  • 7. Investment results in the real world S&P 500 Real returns: 20 years ended 2012. Source: Dulbar, Forbes.com • SA fund switches cost 4% pa (per Allan Gray Balanced Funds between 2000 – 2010)
  • 8. SA funds also under-perform
  • 9. 10X Passive Life-stage vs. Forbes Global Best Investment View Source: Alexander Forbes Global Manager Watch Best Investment View, 10X Investments High Equity Fund (LS 10). 169 159 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 10X Fund manager ave. Investment Returns % pa: Dec 2012 10X Fund manager ave. 10X Excess return 1 Year 24.1% 20.5% 3.6% 3 Year 15.8% 14.1% 1.7% 5 Year 11.0% 9.8% 1.3%
  • 10. Very few funds outperformed a passive buy & hold strategy Investment returns pa BEFORE fees: December 2012 1yr 3yr 5yr 1 Absa Asset Management Global Balanced 20.0% 2 Allan Gray 15.1% 13.1% 10.6% 3 Cadiz Global Balanced 21.5% 13.7% 9.1% 4 Coronation 21.7% 15.8% 12.2% 5 Foord Asset Management 25.6% 17.9% 12.8% 6 Investec Asset Management 20.7% 14.1% 10.7% 7 Investment Solutions (Performer) 20.8% 15.3% 11.0% 8 Investment Solutions (Spectrum) 20.7% 14.6% 9.9% 9 Momentum Balanced 20.1% 13.0% 8.9% 10 Nedgroup Investments XS Diversified Fund of Funds 18.3% 11 Oasis 21.5% 13.9% 7.9% 12 OMIGSA MacroSolutions 20.0% 13.8% 9.0% 13 OMIGSA MacroSolutions (Profile Balanced) 20.0% 13.7% 8.7% 14 Prescient Global Balanced 12.9% 15 Prudential Global Balanced 22.7% 15.7% 11.2% 16 PSG Balanced Fund 15.6% 17 Momentum AM Global Balanced Fund 19.7% 12.6% 8.4% 18 RE: CM 8.3% 10.5% 9.9% 19 SIM Global Unique 20.2% 14.3% 8.8% 20 Stanlib AM 24.6% 17.2% 8.4% 21 Symmetry Managed 23.4% 22 10X Investments LS10 24.1% 15.8% 11.0% MEDIAN 20.21% 14.00% 9.50% Source: Alexander Forbes Global Manager Watch Best Investment View, 10X Investments High Equity Fund (LS 10).
  • 11. • Over-confidence: We can beat the odds in investing • Recency: We extrapolate recent events in the belief they will persist (chase past performance) • Heard behaviour: We get comfort from what others are doing without thinking independently • The industry markets products that play to our emotions Behaviorial biases we suffer from
  • 12. Address the three issues that lead to poor retirement outcomes Knowledge gap: Robust long-term investment plan 1. Life-stage portfolios 2. Minimise fees throughout the value chain 3. Behaviour gap: Stay the course, eliminate irrational temptations, no matter what • Eliminate choice and active management • Focus on the long-run not the short-term • Be sceptical of people with a crystal ball & other talking heads More money at retirement