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Global Equity Markets
4Q 2022 Update
As of October 1, 2022
John Rothe CMT
Founder & Portfolio Manager
www.riverbendinvestments.com
Table of Contents
U.S. Markets
4 Market Performance Overview
5 Quarterly Factor Performance
6 Sector Performance
7 S&P 500 Earnings
8 Sector Earnings Growth vs Valuation
9 Large vs Small Caps
10 Growth vs Value Factor
11 Investor Positioning (Relative ETF Flows)
International Markets
12 Global Equity Returns
13 History of the U.S. Dollar
14 Developed vs Emerging Markets
15 Regional Equity Performance
16 Global Revenue Growth
17 Global Market Valuations
John Rothe CMT
Founder & Portfolio Manager
john.rothe@riverbendinvestments.com
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 2
U.S. Markets
Performance, Valuations, Earnings Growth
4Q 2022
3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year 2019 2020 2021
U.S. Market Caps
Large Caps 1.73% -4.9 -20.2 -15.3 26.3 53.3 181.7 31.0 17.9 28.6
Mid Caps 1.46% -2.4 -17.4 -15.3 18.4 30.6 146.2 25.7 13.1 24.5
Small Caps 1.47% -2.1 -19.0 -23.5 13.3 18.3 120.4 25.3 19.6 14.5
U.S. Styles
Large Grow th 0.84% -3.5 -23.9 -22.6 34.9 74.8 238.0 35.7 38.0 27.4
Large Value 2.20% -5.6 -17.1 -11.2 13.0 27.2 124.6 25.9 2.2 24.8
Small Grow th 0.67% 0.4 -18.9 -29.2 9.2 19.1 129.7 28.4 34.4 2.5
Small Value 2.25% -4.6 -19.2 -17.7 14.1 13.5 104.0 21.9 4.1 27.9
U.S. Sectors
Consumer Discretionary 0.85% 3.9 -22.7 -19.9 21.1 65.5 230.0 28.3 29.2 27.8
Consumer Staples 2.73% -6.9 -10.8 -0.4 17.2 39.1 127.0 27.2 9.8 16.9
Financials 2.22% -2.9 -19.9 -17.3 15.1 28.7 179.0 31.6 -2.3 34.6
Health Care 1.62% -5.2 -10.9 -3.3 41.1 59.1 236.5 20.3 13.0 25.8
Industrials 1.84% -4.7 -18.8 -13.8 12.2 26.8 161.7 28.9 10.4 21.0
Materials 2.48% -7.0 -21.8 -11.9 24.2 31.3 116.0 24.0 19.9 27.2
Technology 1.05% -6.3 -24.9 -19.6 51.9 110.3 315.4 49.6 43.1 34.6
Real Estate 3.89% -11.0 -24.7 -18.2 -4.0 16.1 72.9 28.6 -4.9 40.1
Utilities 3.10% -5.9 -10.7 5.7 10.4 41.7 128.1 25.7 0.1 17.4
Energy 4.24% 1.9 -3.6 44.1 37.2 24.7 28.8 11.7 -33.3 52.6
Communication Services 1.21% -12.2 -31.1 -40.8 -1.6 -3.5 40.0 28.0 28.9 13.8
Asset Class
Trailing Returns (%) Annual Returns (%)
Dividend
Yield
Market Performance Overview
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 4
Disclosures: All performance data represents total returns for the stated period. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Asset classes are based on the following ETFs: Large Caps (SPY), Mid Caps (MDY), Small Caps
(IWM), Large Growth (IWF), Large Value (IWD), Small Growth (IWO), Small Value (IWN), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Consumer Staples (XLP), Financials (XLF), Health Care (XLV), Industrials (XLI), Materials (XLB), Technology (XLK),
Real Estate (VNQ), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Communication Services (VOX).
9.9%
Size - Large
-2.8%
High Div Yld
-5.2%
Div Grower
-9.2%
4Q 2021
Size - Small High Beta Size - Large Div Grower
-17.7%
Growth
-12.1%
High Div Yld Size - Small Low Volatility
-0.7% -8.3%
1Q 2022 2Q 2022
Size - Small
4Q 2019 1Q 2020 2Q 2020 3Q 2020 4Q 2020 1Q 2021 2Q 2021 3Q 2021
22.7% 11.8%
Growth
18.8% 9.4%
Size - Small
13.2% -14.1% 37.6% 13.2% 37.3%
10.5% -14.8% 27.7%
3Q 2022 YTD 1 Year
High Beta Growth High Beta Growth High Beta Low Volatility High Div Yld Low Volatility
High Beta Growth Low Volatility High Beta High Div Yld
Momentum
11.7%
Value
Momentum
Growth Momentum
12.7%
Size - Large Low Volatility Quality
11.2%
Quality
High Beta Size - Large
-5.6%
High Div Yld
0.6%
25.5% 9.0% 22.4% 12.9% 9.0%
-19.0% -1.8% -10.4% -3.1%
Low Volatility Div Grower Momentum
Low Volatility
-4.9%
Size - Small High Div Yld
-3.4%
Quality
13.3%
1.4%
-12.3%
31.3% 1.1%
Value
6.1% -7.1% -2.0%
Value
8.4% 0.3% 11.1%
Size - Large
-11.2%
Growth
-3.5% -18.5%
High Beta Size - Large Size - Large Size - Large
Div Grower Quality
Momentum
-2.1% -14.3%
Size - Large
Div Grower Value Growth Div Grower
9.8% -19.4% 23.4% 8.6% 16.2% 11.3%
Size - Large Low Volatility Size - Large
Momentum Quality
Quality Value
Size - Large Size - Large Low Volatility Div Grower Div Grower
Value
8.3%
6.3% 5.2%
7.9% 0.3% 10.8% -23.8%
Div Grower Div Grower Quality Div Grower Quality
8.1%
9.0% -19.5% 20.2% 8.5% 13.3%
-21.9% 18.8% 6.5% 12.4% -25.1%
-16.1% -15.3%
Quality Value Size - Small Quality
-0.5% 8.3%
Size - Small Div Grower Momentum High Beta
-19.8%
-3.7%
-4.6% -16.7%
-20.8%
5.2% -0.8% 7.8%
Quality High Div Yld Value High Div Yld Momentum
16.1% 5.5% 12.1% 5.3%
Quality
-7.2% -17.3% -5.9% -26.9%
-22.6%
Momentum Size - Small High Div Yld Size - Small Growth
5.1% -1.5% 7.8%
Low Volatility Value High Div Yld Value
5.7% -30.7% 14.7% 5.0% 11.4% 3.8%
Momentum Low Volatility High Beta Growth
-23.5%
High Div Yld High Beta Value High Beta Momentum Growth Div Grower High Beta Quality Size - Small
5.2% -36.4% 14.3% 4.3% 9.6% 0.9% 4.9% -3.0%
-24.0%
Low Volatility High Div Yld Low Volatility High Div Yld Low Volatility Momentum Size - Small
-0.2% 4.0% -4.3% 2.0% -9.0% -22.7%
Growth High Beta High Div Yld Growth Momentum
1.3% -36.7% 6.6%
Size - Small Size - Small
-0.7% 5.2%
Value Div Grower Value Size - Large
Value
-10.1% -30.7%
Size - Small Growth Quality
Momentum
3.8% -7.5% -21.1% -6.5% -27.7%
-7.2% -18.7% -6.2% -26.9%
7.3% -26.7%
Quarterly Factor Performance
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 5
Disclosures: All performance data represents total returns for the stated period. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Value: iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD), Growth: iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF),
Quality: iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL), Momentum: iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM), Low Volatility: Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), Size - Large: State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY),
Size - Small: iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), High Dividend Yield: State Street S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD), Dividend Grower: iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (DGRO), High Beta: Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB).
Sector Performance Relative to S&P 500 Index
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 6
Disclosures: All performance data represents price returns for each sector relative to the S&P 500 as represented by the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Sectors are represented by the
following ETFs: SPDR Consumer Discretionary Sector ETF (XLY), SPDR Consumer Staples Sector ETF (XLP), SPDR Financial Sector ETF (XLF), SPDR Health Care Sector ETF (XLV), SPDR Industrial Sector ETF (XLI), SPDR Materials
Sector ETF (XLB), SPDR Technology Sector ETF (XLK), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), SPDR Utilities Sector ETF (XLU), SPDR Energy Sector ETF (XLE), Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX).
Cons Disc: -4%
Cons Stpls: +16%
Financials: -3%
Health: +12%
Industrials: +1%
Materials: +0%
Tech: -3%
REITs: -4%
Utilities: +28%
Energy: +46%
Comm Svcs: -25%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22
Performance
Relative
to
S&P
500
12-Month Sector Returns
Relative to the S&P 500
S&P 500 Earnings – Last 20 Years
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 7
Disclosures: Earnings are based on the reported last twelve-month EPS of the S&P 500 represented by the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
$35
$220
-$40
$0
$40
$80
$120
$160
$200
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1 Year Change in EPS
S&P 500 Earnings Per Share
3Q 2007
Peak Before
Financial Crisis
4Q 2009
EPS Bottom
1Q 2020
Covid-19 Pandemic
Disclosures: EPS growth is based on the next 12-month consensus estimate. Valuations are based on the next 12-month price to earnings multiple. Sectors are represented by the following ETFs: SPDR Consumer
Discretionary Sector ETF (XLY), SPDR Consumer Staples Sector ETF (XLP), SPDR Financial Sector ETF (XLF), SPDR Health Care Sector ETF (XLV), SPDR Industrial Sector ETF (XLI), SPDR Materials Sector ETF (XLB), SPDR
Technology Sector ETF (XLK), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), SPDR Utilities Sector ETF (XLU), SPDR Energy Sector ETF (XLE), Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX).
Sector Earnings Growth vs Valuation
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 8
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
0x
10x
20x
30x
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Forward
Price
to
Earnings
Multiple
Next 12-month EPS Growth
Large Cap vs Small Cap Stocks
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 9
Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Performance is indexed to $10,000 three years ago. Valuations are based on the next 12-month price to earnings multiple. Large Caps are represented by
the State Street S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Small Caps are represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM).
15x
17x
10x
20x
30x
40x
50x
60x
Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Oct-21 Apr-22
Forward
Price
to
Earnings
Large Caps
Small Caps
Valuations
$12,135
$11,058
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
Oct 2019 Apr 2020 Oct 2020 Apr 2021 Oct 2021 Apr 2022
Growth
of
$10,0000
Large Caps
Small Caps
Performance
Dec 2021
Relative Valuation Composites
Growth vs Value Factor
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 10
Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data is based on iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) and Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF). Inflation data sourced from Federal Reserve.
Value Stocks Tend to Outperform in Higher Inflation Environments
Annualized Inflation and Value Outperformance by Decade
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Annualized
Value
Outperformance
Annualized Inflation Rate by Decade
Relative Year over Year (Y/Y) Performance
-10%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Relative Y/Y Return
+/-1 std
↑ Growth Outperforming
↓ Value Outperforming
-2 std
-1 std
+0 std
+1 std
+2 std
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Growth vs Value
+/-1 std ↑ Growth More Expensive
vs Historical Levels
↓ Value More Expensive
vs Historical Levels
Investor Positioning (6-month Relative ETF Flows)
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 11
Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Positioning is calculated using rolling 6-month ETF flows. Analysis is based on the following ETFs: Large Caps (VOO - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF), Small Caps (VB -
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF), Growth (IWF - iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF), Value (IWD - iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF), Materials (XLB - Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund), Consumer Discretionary (XLY - Consumer
Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund), Financials (XLF - Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund), Consumer Staples (XLP - Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund), Health Care (XLV - Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund),
Utilities (XLU - Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund). Cyclical sectors include Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials. Defensive sectors include Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities.
-20
1
13
-$40 Bn
-$20 Bn
$0 Bn
$20 Bn
$40 Bn
May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22
Cyclical vs Defensive Sectors: -$20 Bn
Growth vs Value Factor: $1 Bn
Large vs Small Caps: $13 Bn
International Markets
Developed vs Emerging, U.S. Dollar, Global Revenue Growth
4Q 2022
Global Equity Returns (Cumulative 5-Year Performance)
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 13
Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All performance data represents price returns for the stated period. S&P 500: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Emerging Markets: iShares MSCI Emerging
Markets ETF (EEM), Developed Markets: iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA).
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21
Cumulative
5
Year
Return
(Indexed
to
100)
S&P 500: +46%
Emerging Markets: -20%
Developed Markets: -17%
Last 12 Months
History of the U.S. Dollar
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 14
Disclosures: Monthly datapoints from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. Dollar Index is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade
partners' currencies, including the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc.
USD
Weakens
=
Good
for
Intl.
Equities
USD
Strengthens
=
Bad
for
Intl.
Equities
60
70
80
90
100
110
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
U.S.
Dollar
Index
Current U.S. Dollar Index: 112
Long-term Average: 112
U.S. Tech Bubble attracts
international investors to
USD assets
Fed starts tightening
cycle and raises interest
rates
Tech
Bubble
Bursts
Fed raises U.S. interest rates
to slow rising inflation
Developed vs Emerging Markets
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 15
Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Relative performance is calculated using rolling 1-year price returns. Flows are based on rolling 12-month ETF flows. Emerging Markets are represented by the
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). Developed Markets are represented by the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA). RHS = right hand side. LHS = left hand side.
-$20
-$10
$0
$10
$20
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1
Year
Change
in
ETF
Flows
(Emerging
vs
Developed)
1
Year
Relative
Performance
(Emerging
vs
Developed)
ETF Flows ― Relative 1 Year Change in $Bn (RHS)
Performance ― Relative 1 Year (LHS)
↑
Emerging Markets
Developed Markets
↓
Regional Equity Performance
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 16
Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All performance data represents total returns for the last 12 months. Regional performance is represented by the following ETFs: United States (SPY), Europe
(VGK), Latin America (ILF), Developed Asia (VPL), Emerging Asia (GMF), Canada (EWC), Japan (EWJ), U.K. (EWU), Switzerland (EWL), France (EWQ), Germany (EWG), Australia (EWA), Hong Kong (EWH), Spain (EWP), Italy (EWI),
Singapore (EWS), China (MCHI), Taiwan (EWT), South Korea (EWY), India (INDA), Brazil (EWZ), South Africa (EZA), Russia (RSX), Thailand (THD), Mexico (EWW), Malaysia (EWM), Indonesia (IDX), Philippines (EPHE), Chile (ECH),
Turkey (TUR), Colombia (GXG), Greece (GREK), Argentina (ARGT).
0
-15
-25 -26 -26
-13 -14 -14
-18 -19
-21 -23 -24
-28 -28
-37
7
4 3
0
-5
-10 -10 -11
-15
-19 -20
-24
-27 -28
-36
-39
-76
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20 Latin
America
United
States
Emerging
Asia
Developed
Asia
Europe
Canada
U.K.
Australia
Switzerland
Singapore
Hong
Kong
France
Spain
Italy
Japan
Germany
Turkey
Brazil
Indonesia
Chile
Mexico
Thailand
India
Argentina
Malaysia
Greece
South
Africa
Philippines
Colombia
Taiwan
China
South
Korea
Russia
Regions Developed Countries Emerging Countries
1
Year
Total
Return
(%)
Last 12 Month Performance
Global Revenue Growth
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 17
Disclosures: Revenue growth is based on last 12-month reported sales in local currency divided by the prior 12 months sales in local currency. Regions are represented by the following ETFs: S&P 500 (SPY - State Street
SPDR S&P 500 ETF), MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) and MSCI Developed Markets (EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE ETF).
-30%
-15%
0%
15%
30%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
S&P 500: +15%
MSCI Emerging Markets: +9%
MSCI Developed Markets: -4%
↑
Growing Revenue vs
Last Year
Shrinking Revenue
vs Last Year
↓
Global Market Valuations
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 18
Disclosures: Valuations are based on last 12-month price to earnings multiple. Regions are represented by the following ETFs: S&P 500 (SPY - State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF), MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging
Markets ETF) and MSCI Developed Markets (EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE ETF).
5x
10x
15x
20x
25x
30x
35x
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
S&P 500: 17.5x
MSCI Emerging Markets: 10.8x
MSCI Developed Markets: 11.7x
Definitions
Annualized Return: The rate at which an investment grows each year over the period to arrive at the final valuation.
Bear Market: A decline of at least 20% from the market's high point to its low.
Beta: A measure of how an individual asset moves when the overall stock market increases or decreases.
Correlation: A measure of the extent to which two variables are related.
Dividend Yield: The dividend yield or dividend-price ratio of a share is the dividend per share, divided by the price per share. It is also a company's total annual dividend
payments divided by its market capitalization, assuming the number of shares is constant.
Developed Markets: A country that is most developed in terms of its economy and capital markets. The country must be high income, but this also includes openness
to foreign ownership, ease of capital movement, and efficiency of market institutions.
Emerging Markets: A country that has some characteristics of a developed market but does not fully meet its standards. This includes markets that may become
developed markets in the future or were in the past.
Growth Factor Stocks: Growth stocks are companies expected to grow sales and earnings at a faster rate than the market average.
Large Cap Stocks: Shares of publicly traded corporations with a market capitalization of $10 billion or more.
LTM: An acronym for "Last Twelve Months" or the past one year.
NTM: An acronym for "Next Twelve Months" or the next one year.
Price Return: The rate of return on an investment portfolio, where the return measure takes into account only the capital appreciation of the portfolio, not including
income generated in the form of interest or dividends.
Total Return: Return on a portfolio of investments including capital appreciation and income received on the portfolio.
Small Cap Stocks: Small-cap stocks are shares of companies with a market capitalization of less than $2 billion.
Standard Deviation: In statistics, the standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of values. A low standard deviation indicates the
values tend to be close to the historical average of the data set, while a high standard deviation indicates the current value is outside of the historical average range.
Value Factor Stocks: Stocks that are inexpensive relative to the broad market based on measures of fundamental value (e.g., price to earnings or price to book).
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 19
Disclosures and Legal Notice
Riverbend Investment Management, LLC (Riverbend) is a registered investment advisor offering advisory services in registered states and in other jurisdictions where exempted.
Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training.
This communication is for informational purposes only and is not intended as tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as an endorsement of
any company, security, fund, or other securities or non-securities offering. This communication should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision.
Past performance is no indication of future results. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. It should not be
assumed that any recommendations made will be profitable or equal the performance noted in this publication.
The information herein is provided “AS IS” and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. To the fullest extent permissible pursuant to applicable laws, Riverbend
Investment Management, LLC (referred to as Riverbend) disclaims all warranties, express or implied, including, but not limited to, implied warranties of merchantability, non-infringement,
and suitability for a particular purpose.
All opinions and estimates constitute Riverbend’s judgement as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. Riverbend does not warrant that the
information will be free from error. The information should not be relied upon for purposes of transacting securities or other investments. Your use of the information is at your sole risk.
Under no circumstances shall Riverbend be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages that result from the use of, or the inability to use, the information provided
herein, even if Riverbend or a Riverbend authorized representative has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Information contained herein should not be considered a
solicitation to buy, an offer to sell, or a recommendation of any security in any jurisdiction where such offer, solicitation, or recommendation would be unlawful or unauthorized.
Please see disclosures at end of presentation 20

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Global Equity Update October 2022

  • 1. Global Equity Markets 4Q 2022 Update As of October 1, 2022 John Rothe CMT Founder & Portfolio Manager www.riverbendinvestments.com
  • 2. Table of Contents U.S. Markets 4 Market Performance Overview 5 Quarterly Factor Performance 6 Sector Performance 7 S&P 500 Earnings 8 Sector Earnings Growth vs Valuation 9 Large vs Small Caps 10 Growth vs Value Factor 11 Investor Positioning (Relative ETF Flows) International Markets 12 Global Equity Returns 13 History of the U.S. Dollar 14 Developed vs Emerging Markets 15 Regional Equity Performance 16 Global Revenue Growth 17 Global Market Valuations John Rothe CMT Founder & Portfolio Manager john.rothe@riverbendinvestments.com Please see disclosures at end of presentation 2
  • 3. U.S. Markets Performance, Valuations, Earnings Growth 4Q 2022
  • 4. 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year 2019 2020 2021 U.S. Market Caps Large Caps 1.73% -4.9 -20.2 -15.3 26.3 53.3 181.7 31.0 17.9 28.6 Mid Caps 1.46% -2.4 -17.4 -15.3 18.4 30.6 146.2 25.7 13.1 24.5 Small Caps 1.47% -2.1 -19.0 -23.5 13.3 18.3 120.4 25.3 19.6 14.5 U.S. Styles Large Grow th 0.84% -3.5 -23.9 -22.6 34.9 74.8 238.0 35.7 38.0 27.4 Large Value 2.20% -5.6 -17.1 -11.2 13.0 27.2 124.6 25.9 2.2 24.8 Small Grow th 0.67% 0.4 -18.9 -29.2 9.2 19.1 129.7 28.4 34.4 2.5 Small Value 2.25% -4.6 -19.2 -17.7 14.1 13.5 104.0 21.9 4.1 27.9 U.S. Sectors Consumer Discretionary 0.85% 3.9 -22.7 -19.9 21.1 65.5 230.0 28.3 29.2 27.8 Consumer Staples 2.73% -6.9 -10.8 -0.4 17.2 39.1 127.0 27.2 9.8 16.9 Financials 2.22% -2.9 -19.9 -17.3 15.1 28.7 179.0 31.6 -2.3 34.6 Health Care 1.62% -5.2 -10.9 -3.3 41.1 59.1 236.5 20.3 13.0 25.8 Industrials 1.84% -4.7 -18.8 -13.8 12.2 26.8 161.7 28.9 10.4 21.0 Materials 2.48% -7.0 -21.8 -11.9 24.2 31.3 116.0 24.0 19.9 27.2 Technology 1.05% -6.3 -24.9 -19.6 51.9 110.3 315.4 49.6 43.1 34.6 Real Estate 3.89% -11.0 -24.7 -18.2 -4.0 16.1 72.9 28.6 -4.9 40.1 Utilities 3.10% -5.9 -10.7 5.7 10.4 41.7 128.1 25.7 0.1 17.4 Energy 4.24% 1.9 -3.6 44.1 37.2 24.7 28.8 11.7 -33.3 52.6 Communication Services 1.21% -12.2 -31.1 -40.8 -1.6 -3.5 40.0 28.0 28.9 13.8 Asset Class Trailing Returns (%) Annual Returns (%) Dividend Yield Market Performance Overview Please see disclosures at end of presentation 4 Disclosures: All performance data represents total returns for the stated period. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Asset classes are based on the following ETFs: Large Caps (SPY), Mid Caps (MDY), Small Caps (IWM), Large Growth (IWF), Large Value (IWD), Small Growth (IWO), Small Value (IWN), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Consumer Staples (XLP), Financials (XLF), Health Care (XLV), Industrials (XLI), Materials (XLB), Technology (XLK), Real Estate (VNQ), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Communication Services (VOX).
  • 5. 9.9% Size - Large -2.8% High Div Yld -5.2% Div Grower -9.2% 4Q 2021 Size - Small High Beta Size - Large Div Grower -17.7% Growth -12.1% High Div Yld Size - Small Low Volatility -0.7% -8.3% 1Q 2022 2Q 2022 Size - Small 4Q 2019 1Q 2020 2Q 2020 3Q 2020 4Q 2020 1Q 2021 2Q 2021 3Q 2021 22.7% 11.8% Growth 18.8% 9.4% Size - Small 13.2% -14.1% 37.6% 13.2% 37.3% 10.5% -14.8% 27.7% 3Q 2022 YTD 1 Year High Beta Growth High Beta Growth High Beta Low Volatility High Div Yld Low Volatility High Beta Growth Low Volatility High Beta High Div Yld Momentum 11.7% Value Momentum Growth Momentum 12.7% Size - Large Low Volatility Quality 11.2% Quality High Beta Size - Large -5.6% High Div Yld 0.6% 25.5% 9.0% 22.4% 12.9% 9.0% -19.0% -1.8% -10.4% -3.1% Low Volatility Div Grower Momentum Low Volatility -4.9% Size - Small High Div Yld -3.4% Quality 13.3% 1.4% -12.3% 31.3% 1.1% Value 6.1% -7.1% -2.0% Value 8.4% 0.3% 11.1% Size - Large -11.2% Growth -3.5% -18.5% High Beta Size - Large Size - Large Size - Large Div Grower Quality Momentum -2.1% -14.3% Size - Large Div Grower Value Growth Div Grower 9.8% -19.4% 23.4% 8.6% 16.2% 11.3% Size - Large Low Volatility Size - Large Momentum Quality Quality Value Size - Large Size - Large Low Volatility Div Grower Div Grower Value 8.3% 6.3% 5.2% 7.9% 0.3% 10.8% -23.8% Div Grower Div Grower Quality Div Grower Quality 8.1% 9.0% -19.5% 20.2% 8.5% 13.3% -21.9% 18.8% 6.5% 12.4% -25.1% -16.1% -15.3% Quality Value Size - Small Quality -0.5% 8.3% Size - Small Div Grower Momentum High Beta -19.8% -3.7% -4.6% -16.7% -20.8% 5.2% -0.8% 7.8% Quality High Div Yld Value High Div Yld Momentum 16.1% 5.5% 12.1% 5.3% Quality -7.2% -17.3% -5.9% -26.9% -22.6% Momentum Size - Small High Div Yld Size - Small Growth 5.1% -1.5% 7.8% Low Volatility Value High Div Yld Value 5.7% -30.7% 14.7% 5.0% 11.4% 3.8% Momentum Low Volatility High Beta Growth -23.5% High Div Yld High Beta Value High Beta Momentum Growth Div Grower High Beta Quality Size - Small 5.2% -36.4% 14.3% 4.3% 9.6% 0.9% 4.9% -3.0% -24.0% Low Volatility High Div Yld Low Volatility High Div Yld Low Volatility Momentum Size - Small -0.2% 4.0% -4.3% 2.0% -9.0% -22.7% Growth High Beta High Div Yld Growth Momentum 1.3% -36.7% 6.6% Size - Small Size - Small -0.7% 5.2% Value Div Grower Value Size - Large Value -10.1% -30.7% Size - Small Growth Quality Momentum 3.8% -7.5% -21.1% -6.5% -27.7% -7.2% -18.7% -6.2% -26.9% 7.3% -26.7% Quarterly Factor Performance Please see disclosures at end of presentation 5 Disclosures: All performance data represents total returns for the stated period. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Value: iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD), Growth: iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF), Quality: iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL), Momentum: iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM), Low Volatility: Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), Size - Large: State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Size - Small: iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), High Dividend Yield: State Street S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD), Dividend Grower: iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (DGRO), High Beta: Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB).
  • 6. Sector Performance Relative to S&P 500 Index Please see disclosures at end of presentation 6 Disclosures: All performance data represents price returns for each sector relative to the S&P 500 as represented by the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Sectors are represented by the following ETFs: SPDR Consumer Discretionary Sector ETF (XLY), SPDR Consumer Staples Sector ETF (XLP), SPDR Financial Sector ETF (XLF), SPDR Health Care Sector ETF (XLV), SPDR Industrial Sector ETF (XLI), SPDR Materials Sector ETF (XLB), SPDR Technology Sector ETF (XLK), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), SPDR Utilities Sector ETF (XLU), SPDR Energy Sector ETF (XLE), Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX). Cons Disc: -4% Cons Stpls: +16% Financials: -3% Health: +12% Industrials: +1% Materials: +0% Tech: -3% REITs: -4% Utilities: +28% Energy: +46% Comm Svcs: -25% -30% 0% 30% 60% Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Performance Relative to S&P 500 12-Month Sector Returns Relative to the S&P 500
  • 7. S&P 500 Earnings – Last 20 Years Please see disclosures at end of presentation 7 Disclosures: Earnings are based on the reported last twelve-month EPS of the S&P 500 represented by the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). $35 $220 -$40 $0 $40 $80 $120 $160 $200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1 Year Change in EPS S&P 500 Earnings Per Share 3Q 2007 Peak Before Financial Crisis 4Q 2009 EPS Bottom 1Q 2020 Covid-19 Pandemic
  • 8. Disclosures: EPS growth is based on the next 12-month consensus estimate. Valuations are based on the next 12-month price to earnings multiple. Sectors are represented by the following ETFs: SPDR Consumer Discretionary Sector ETF (XLY), SPDR Consumer Staples Sector ETF (XLP), SPDR Financial Sector ETF (XLF), SPDR Health Care Sector ETF (XLV), SPDR Industrial Sector ETF (XLI), SPDR Materials Sector ETF (XLB), SPDR Technology Sector ETF (XLK), Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), SPDR Utilities Sector ETF (XLU), SPDR Energy Sector ETF (XLE), Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX). Sector Earnings Growth vs Valuation Please see disclosures at end of presentation 8 [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 0x 10x 20x 30x -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Forward Price to Earnings Multiple Next 12-month EPS Growth
  • 9. Large Cap vs Small Cap Stocks Please see disclosures at end of presentation 9 Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Performance is indexed to $10,000 three years ago. Valuations are based on the next 12-month price to earnings multiple. Large Caps are represented by the State Street S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Small Caps are represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). 15x 17x 10x 20x 30x 40x 50x 60x Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Oct-21 Apr-22 Forward Price to Earnings Large Caps Small Caps Valuations $12,135 $11,058 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 Oct 2019 Apr 2020 Oct 2020 Apr 2021 Oct 2021 Apr 2022 Growth of $10,0000 Large Caps Small Caps Performance Dec 2021
  • 10. Relative Valuation Composites Growth vs Value Factor Please see disclosures at end of presentation 10 Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data is based on iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) and Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF). Inflation data sourced from Federal Reserve. Value Stocks Tend to Outperform in Higher Inflation Environments Annualized Inflation and Value Outperformance by Decade [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Annualized Value Outperformance Annualized Inflation Rate by Decade Relative Year over Year (Y/Y) Performance -10% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Relative Y/Y Return +/-1 std ↑ Growth Outperforming ↓ Value Outperforming -2 std -1 std +0 std +1 std +2 std 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Growth vs Value +/-1 std ↑ Growth More Expensive vs Historical Levels ↓ Value More Expensive vs Historical Levels
  • 11. Investor Positioning (6-month Relative ETF Flows) Please see disclosures at end of presentation 11 Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Positioning is calculated using rolling 6-month ETF flows. Analysis is based on the following ETFs: Large Caps (VOO - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF), Small Caps (VB - Vanguard Small-Cap ETF), Growth (IWF - iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF), Value (IWD - iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF), Materials (XLB - Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund), Consumer Discretionary (XLY - Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund), Financials (XLF - Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund), Consumer Staples (XLP - Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund), Health Care (XLV - Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund), Utilities (XLU - Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund). Cyclical sectors include Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials. Defensive sectors include Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities. -20 1 13 -$40 Bn -$20 Bn $0 Bn $20 Bn $40 Bn May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Cyclical vs Defensive Sectors: -$20 Bn Growth vs Value Factor: $1 Bn Large vs Small Caps: $13 Bn
  • 12. International Markets Developed vs Emerging, U.S. Dollar, Global Revenue Growth 4Q 2022
  • 13. Global Equity Returns (Cumulative 5-Year Performance) Please see disclosures at end of presentation 13 Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All performance data represents price returns for the stated period. S&P 500: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Emerging Markets: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), Developed Markets: iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA). 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-21 Cumulative 5 Year Return (Indexed to 100) S&P 500: +46% Emerging Markets: -20% Developed Markets: -17% Last 12 Months
  • 14. History of the U.S. Dollar Please see disclosures at end of presentation 14 Disclosures: Monthly datapoints from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. Dollar Index is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies, including the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc. USD Weakens = Good for Intl. Equities USD Strengthens = Bad for Intl. Equities 60 70 80 90 100 110 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 U.S. Dollar Index Current U.S. Dollar Index: 112 Long-term Average: 112 U.S. Tech Bubble attracts international investors to USD assets Fed starts tightening cycle and raises interest rates Tech Bubble Bursts Fed raises U.S. interest rates to slow rising inflation
  • 15. Developed vs Emerging Markets Please see disclosures at end of presentation 15 Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Relative performance is calculated using rolling 1-year price returns. Flows are based on rolling 12-month ETF flows. Emerging Markets are represented by the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). Developed Markets are represented by the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA). RHS = right hand side. LHS = left hand side. -$20 -$10 $0 $10 $20 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1 Year Change in ETF Flows (Emerging vs Developed) 1 Year Relative Performance (Emerging vs Developed) ETF Flows ― Relative 1 Year Change in $Bn (RHS) Performance ― Relative 1 Year (LHS) ↑ Emerging Markets Developed Markets ↓
  • 16. Regional Equity Performance Please see disclosures at end of presentation 16 Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All performance data represents total returns for the last 12 months. Regional performance is represented by the following ETFs: United States (SPY), Europe (VGK), Latin America (ILF), Developed Asia (VPL), Emerging Asia (GMF), Canada (EWC), Japan (EWJ), U.K. (EWU), Switzerland (EWL), France (EWQ), Germany (EWG), Australia (EWA), Hong Kong (EWH), Spain (EWP), Italy (EWI), Singapore (EWS), China (MCHI), Taiwan (EWT), South Korea (EWY), India (INDA), Brazil (EWZ), South Africa (EZA), Russia (RSX), Thailand (THD), Mexico (EWW), Malaysia (EWM), Indonesia (IDX), Philippines (EPHE), Chile (ECH), Turkey (TUR), Colombia (GXG), Greece (GREK), Argentina (ARGT). 0 -15 -25 -26 -26 -13 -14 -14 -18 -19 -21 -23 -24 -28 -28 -37 7 4 3 0 -5 -10 -10 -11 -15 -19 -20 -24 -27 -28 -36 -39 -76 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 Latin America United States Emerging Asia Developed Asia Europe Canada U.K. Australia Switzerland Singapore Hong Kong France Spain Italy Japan Germany Turkey Brazil Indonesia Chile Mexico Thailand India Argentina Malaysia Greece South Africa Philippines Colombia Taiwan China South Korea Russia Regions Developed Countries Emerging Countries 1 Year Total Return (%) Last 12 Month Performance
  • 17. Global Revenue Growth Please see disclosures at end of presentation 17 Disclosures: Revenue growth is based on last 12-month reported sales in local currency divided by the prior 12 months sales in local currency. Regions are represented by the following ETFs: S&P 500 (SPY - State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF), MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) and MSCI Developed Markets (EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE ETF). -30% -15% 0% 15% 30% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 S&P 500: +15% MSCI Emerging Markets: +9% MSCI Developed Markets: -4% ↑ Growing Revenue vs Last Year Shrinking Revenue vs Last Year ↓
  • 18. Global Market Valuations Please see disclosures at end of presentation 18 Disclosures: Valuations are based on last 12-month price to earnings multiple. Regions are represented by the following ETFs: S&P 500 (SPY - State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF), MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) and MSCI Developed Markets (EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE ETF). 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x 35x 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 S&P 500: 17.5x MSCI Emerging Markets: 10.8x MSCI Developed Markets: 11.7x
  • 19. Definitions Annualized Return: The rate at which an investment grows each year over the period to arrive at the final valuation. Bear Market: A decline of at least 20% from the market's high point to its low. Beta: A measure of how an individual asset moves when the overall stock market increases or decreases. Correlation: A measure of the extent to which two variables are related. Dividend Yield: The dividend yield or dividend-price ratio of a share is the dividend per share, divided by the price per share. It is also a company's total annual dividend payments divided by its market capitalization, assuming the number of shares is constant. Developed Markets: A country that is most developed in terms of its economy and capital markets. The country must be high income, but this also includes openness to foreign ownership, ease of capital movement, and efficiency of market institutions. Emerging Markets: A country that has some characteristics of a developed market but does not fully meet its standards. This includes markets that may become developed markets in the future or were in the past. Growth Factor Stocks: Growth stocks are companies expected to grow sales and earnings at a faster rate than the market average. Large Cap Stocks: Shares of publicly traded corporations with a market capitalization of $10 billion or more. LTM: An acronym for "Last Twelve Months" or the past one year. NTM: An acronym for "Next Twelve Months" or the next one year. Price Return: The rate of return on an investment portfolio, where the return measure takes into account only the capital appreciation of the portfolio, not including income generated in the form of interest or dividends. Total Return: Return on a portfolio of investments including capital appreciation and income received on the portfolio. Small Cap Stocks: Small-cap stocks are shares of companies with a market capitalization of less than $2 billion. Standard Deviation: In statistics, the standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of values. A low standard deviation indicates the values tend to be close to the historical average of the data set, while a high standard deviation indicates the current value is outside of the historical average range. Value Factor Stocks: Stocks that are inexpensive relative to the broad market based on measures of fundamental value (e.g., price to earnings or price to book). Please see disclosures at end of presentation 19
  • 20. Disclosures and Legal Notice Riverbend Investment Management, LLC (Riverbend) is a registered investment advisor offering advisory services in registered states and in other jurisdictions where exempted. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This communication is for informational purposes only and is not intended as tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as an endorsement of any company, security, fund, or other securities or non-securities offering. This communication should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. Past performance is no indication of future results. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. It should not be assumed that any recommendations made will be profitable or equal the performance noted in this publication. The information herein is provided “AS IS” and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. To the fullest extent permissible pursuant to applicable laws, Riverbend Investment Management, LLC (referred to as Riverbend) disclaims all warranties, express or implied, including, but not limited to, implied warranties of merchantability, non-infringement, and suitability for a particular purpose. All opinions and estimates constitute Riverbend’s judgement as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. Riverbend does not warrant that the information will be free from error. The information should not be relied upon for purposes of transacting securities or other investments. Your use of the information is at your sole risk. Under no circumstances shall Riverbend be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages that result from the use of, or the inability to use, the information provided herein, even if Riverbend or a Riverbend authorized representative has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Information contained herein should not be considered a solicitation to buy, an offer to sell, or a recommendation of any security in any jurisdiction where such offer, solicitation, or recommendation would be unlawful or unauthorized. Please see disclosures at end of presentation 20