The document summarizes the results of a monthly survey of Ukrainian businesses conducted in August 2022. Some key findings include:
- Production and sales continued recovering from declines, but the pace may slow in coming months based on expectations.
- Rising prices, logistical challenges, and lack of working capital were the top obstacles reported by businesses.
- While most businesses are operating at over 25% of pre-war capacity, uncertainty remains high in the short-term.
- Support from the government is still seen as inadequate according to assessments from businesses.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 20. (12.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 20-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for December 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 20-th wave lasted from December 13 to December 31, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in December 2023 with November, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (December 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
In December, 535 companies were surveyed.
Main results of the 20-th monthly enterprise survey:
• In December 2023, Ukrainian business considered danger the most acute problem, but entrepreneurs continued to adapt to work in war conditions.
• Despite the deteriorating security situation and high uncertainty affecting long-term plans, businesses are showing resilience by focusing on finding solutions for the present and the near future.
• Business activity recovery index remains high for two months in a row. Production indicators improved in December compared to November.
• Production expectations in the short term are positive but have not been growing for several months.
• Long-term expectations worsened for the first time, although the percentage of "optimists" still outweighs "pessimists."
• Half-yearly expectations regarding the business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment have not changed compared to November, but the annual trend towards a gradual deterioration of the values is recorded.
• Employment indicators continued their seasonally slowing trend, while the labor market experienced a shortage of both unskilled and skilled workers.
• In December, the list of obstacles changed significantly; security issues and "labor shortages" ranked 1st and 2nd, with price increases obtained 3rd place.
• Negative assessments of the government's economic policy decreased, and the percentage of neutral ones increased.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 15. (07.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the Fifteenth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for June 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey:
In July 2023, for the first time in the last three months, uncertainty in the long term decreased; instead, entrepreneurs became more cautious about the short and medium-term plans, where uncertainty gradually increased for the second month in a row.
Estimates of the current business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment have slightly deteriorated, while expectations remain high.
Compared to the previous months, production indicators slightly worsened, and expectations for three months, while remaining highly positive, tend to stagnate. Despite a slight decrease, the share of enterprises operating at full and near full capacity remains dominant.
The importance of obstacles "unsafe to work" and "power supply cuts" remains significant for every third surveyed enterprise.
Export activity has slowed, although companies have positive expectations for the next three months.
Only a third of enterprises were able to increase the workers' salaries from the beginning of 2023, on average, by 12%.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 17. (09.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the Seventeenth monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for September 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 534 enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
The field stage of the 17-th wave lasted from September 18 to September 29, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in September 2023 with August 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (September 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one. Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators: output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months.
The special part of the Monthly survey provides information on specific topics. A special part examines the enterprises' problems, the war's impact on production volumes, export activity, basic business needs, and the assessment of government policy.
Main results of the Seventeenth monthly enterprise survey:
• Business expectations in the short term remain high, although the production recovery rate has slowed somewhat (as evidenced by a number of indicators).
• Risks related to war are becoming a significant factor in the business environment: for the first time during the survey, the risk related to war took second place in the rating of obstacles.
• Business relies on itself and needs a friendlier regulatory policy.
• Uncertainty in the long-term horizon is high and unchanged, while uncertainty in the short-term and semi-annual horizons is decreasing.
• Half-yearly expectations regarding the business activity and the overall economic environment remain high and positive.
• Compared to the previous month, production indicators slightly improved, while three-month expectations decreased slightly.
• Businesses still experience difficulties in finding skilled workers and difficulties in finding unskilled workers are gradually decreasing.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 18. (10.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 18-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for October 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
For reference: The field stage of the 18th wave lasted from October 16 to 31, 2023.
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 534 enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
Main results of the 18-th monthly enterprise survey:
• In October 2023, the recovery rate is slowing down, although business optimism for the three- and six-month outlook is high, but has stopped growing in recent months.
• "Unsafe to work" remains among the top 3 obstacles to doing business.
• Uncertainty in the six-month and two-year horizon remains high, and uncertainty in the three-month horizon is increasing.
• The recovery rate of business activity compared to last year remains strong, although the trend to slow down continues.
• The previous month's trend of reduction in production growth rates continued.
• The share of enterprises operating near full and at full capacity increased after three months of decline, and export indicators improved compared to the previous month.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 14. (06.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for June 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey:
• In the short- and medium-term horizon, business remains optimistic, although it refrains from clear forecasts for the distant future, as evidenced by the increase in long-term uncertainty.
• Expectations in the six-month horizon remain very optimistic.
• For the first time in several months, there is a slight increase in uncertainty in the short- and medium-term horizons.
• At the same time, the current situation is characterized as quite positive. The share of businesses operating near full and at full capacity is the highest since the beginning of the war.
• Managers have improved their assessments of the current business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment; the results of the enterprises compared to the previous month have improved, and the expectations for three months are very optimistic. But the "stagnation" of such optimism has been observed for the third month in a row.
• Issues of business security remain in the top 5 obstacles to business operations during wartime
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 20. (12.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 20-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for December 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 20-th wave lasted from December 13 to December 31, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in December 2023 with November, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (December 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
In December, 535 companies were surveyed.
Main results of the 20-th monthly enterprise survey:
• In December 2023, Ukrainian business considered danger the most acute problem, but entrepreneurs continued to adapt to work in war conditions.
• Despite the deteriorating security situation and high uncertainty affecting long-term plans, businesses are showing resilience by focusing on finding solutions for the present and the near future.
• Business activity recovery index remains high for two months in a row. Production indicators improved in December compared to November.
• Production expectations in the short term are positive but have not been growing for several months.
• Long-term expectations worsened for the first time, although the percentage of "optimists" still outweighs "pessimists."
• Half-yearly expectations regarding the business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment have not changed compared to November, but the annual trend towards a gradual deterioration of the values is recorded.
• Employment indicators continued their seasonally slowing trend, while the labor market experienced a shortage of both unskilled and skilled workers.
• In December, the list of obstacles changed significantly; security issues and "labor shortages" ranked 1st and 2nd, with price increases obtained 3rd place.
• Negative assessments of the government's economic policy decreased, and the percentage of neutral ones increased.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 15. (07.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the Fifteenth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for June 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey:
In July 2023, for the first time in the last three months, uncertainty in the long term decreased; instead, entrepreneurs became more cautious about the short and medium-term plans, where uncertainty gradually increased for the second month in a row.
Estimates of the current business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment have slightly deteriorated, while expectations remain high.
Compared to the previous months, production indicators slightly worsened, and expectations for three months, while remaining highly positive, tend to stagnate. Despite a slight decrease, the share of enterprises operating at full and near full capacity remains dominant.
The importance of obstacles "unsafe to work" and "power supply cuts" remains significant for every third surveyed enterprise.
Export activity has slowed, although companies have positive expectations for the next three months.
Only a third of enterprises were able to increase the workers' salaries from the beginning of 2023, on average, by 12%.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 17. (09.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the Seventeenth monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for September 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 534 enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
The field stage of the 17-th wave lasted from September 18 to September 29, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in September 2023 with August 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (September 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one. Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators: output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months.
The special part of the Monthly survey provides information on specific topics. A special part examines the enterprises' problems, the war's impact on production volumes, export activity, basic business needs, and the assessment of government policy.
Main results of the Seventeenth monthly enterprise survey:
• Business expectations in the short term remain high, although the production recovery rate has slowed somewhat (as evidenced by a number of indicators).
• Risks related to war are becoming a significant factor in the business environment: for the first time during the survey, the risk related to war took second place in the rating of obstacles.
• Business relies on itself and needs a friendlier regulatory policy.
• Uncertainty in the long-term horizon is high and unchanged, while uncertainty in the short-term and semi-annual horizons is decreasing.
• Half-yearly expectations regarding the business activity and the overall economic environment remain high and positive.
• Compared to the previous month, production indicators slightly improved, while three-month expectations decreased slightly.
• Businesses still experience difficulties in finding skilled workers and difficulties in finding unskilled workers are gradually decreasing.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 18. (10.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 18-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for October 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
For reference: The field stage of the 18th wave lasted from October 16 to 31, 2023.
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 534 enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
Main results of the 18-th monthly enterprise survey:
• In October 2023, the recovery rate is slowing down, although business optimism for the three- and six-month outlook is high, but has stopped growing in recent months.
• "Unsafe to work" remains among the top 3 obstacles to doing business.
• Uncertainty in the six-month and two-year horizon remains high, and uncertainty in the three-month horizon is increasing.
• The recovery rate of business activity compared to last year remains strong, although the trend to slow down continues.
• The previous month's trend of reduction in production growth rates continued.
• The share of enterprises operating near full and at full capacity increased after three months of decline, and export indicators improved compared to the previous month.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 14. (06.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for June 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey:
• In the short- and medium-term horizon, business remains optimistic, although it refrains from clear forecasts for the distant future, as evidenced by the increase in long-term uncertainty.
• Expectations in the six-month horizon remain very optimistic.
• For the first time in several months, there is a slight increase in uncertainty in the short- and medium-term horizons.
• At the same time, the current situation is characterized as quite positive. The share of businesses operating near full and at full capacity is the highest since the beginning of the war.
• Managers have improved their assessments of the current business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment; the results of the enterprises compared to the previous month have improved, and the expectations for three months are very optimistic. But the "stagnation" of such optimism has been observed for the third month in a row.
• Issues of business security remain in the top 5 obstacles to business operations during wartime
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 19. (11.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 19-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for November 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 19-th wave lasted from November 17 to November 30, 2023. In November, 539 companies were surveyed.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in November 2023 with October 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (November 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
Main results of the 19-th monthly enterprise survey:
• The economic recovery rate accelerated again amid the cessation of the downward trend in short-term optimism and the reduction of uncertainty.
• Uncertainty in the 3-month perspective has decreased significantly, and uncertainty in the 2-year perspective, although still high, has also decreased somewhat.
• The rate of business activity recovery compared to the previous year is high and has almost doubled compared to the previous month.
• Industrial confidence indicator increased, production indicators compared to previous months, and expectations for three months remain optimistic.
• The share of enterprises operating at full capacity has increased.
• Rising prices, insecurity, logistical problems, and labor shortages top the list of obstacles.
• The obstacle "unsafe to work" moved from the 3rd to the 2nd position in the list of obstacles.
• Employment indicators showed a seasonal slowdown, while the labor market experienced a shortage of unskilled workers.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 16. (08.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the Sixteenth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for August 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Sixteenth monthly enterprise survey:
• Despite the high level of long-term uncertainty and increased short-term uncertainty, enterprise performance has improved, and expectations remain high and rising again.
• Enterprise results improved compared to previous months, and expectations for production, sales, and exports for three months are rising again.
• The share of enterprises operating at almost full and full capacity remains unchanged (57% in August versus 59% in July).
• "Unsafe to work" and "power outages" remain among the significant obstacles to work.
• The percentage of respondents who cannot decide on an answer has significantly increased in assessments of the government's economic policy.
• "The end of the war" and "a good business climate" are the main expectations of businesses.
For reference: The "field" stage of the survey took place from August 15 to August 31, 2023; telephone interviews were conducted with representatives of 539 enterprises of all sizes located in 21 out of 27 regions of Ukraine.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 12. (04.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the twelfth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for April 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IED) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting” (IED) as part of the project “For Fair and Transparent Customs,” funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the twelfth monthly enterprise survey
In April, enterprises showed their best results for the entire survey period and remained optimistic (albeit somewhat less than before) about the near future. The importance of "unsafe to work" as an obstacle to doing business has decreased. Assessments of the current situation in the country and the business activity at the enterprise have increased, and expectations, while remaining high, have become somewhat more restrained than a month ago. The dynamics of production indicators were the best for the entire survey period. Uncertainty over the six- and three-month horizons continues to decrease (excluding exports and employment). But the longer-term future remains unclear for business: uncertainty over the two-year horizon is hi
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 13. (05.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the twelfth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for May 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the thirteenth monthly enterprise survey
• Amid the military escalation, business optimism remains quite high, while the long term remains uncertain.
• Assessments of the current financial and economic situation at the enterprise have slightly deteriorated, while assessments of the general economic situation in the country and expectations for the future remained unchanged.
• Uncertainty in the 6- and 3-month perspective has been declining for several months in a row.
• The two-year plans remain vague for business: uncertainty remains high, and, also, the share of enterprises that do not plan changes for such a long term has increased.
• As missile attacks intensified, the importance of "unsafe operation" and "power outages" has again increased slightly for doing business.
• Export activity remains unchanged, which indicates a certain stagnation of export recovery.
• The main challenge for exporters remains logistical problems.
• Economic policy assessments in most cases are neutral and do not change.
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 21-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for January 2024.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 21-th wave lasted from January 16 to January 31, 2024. The enterprise managers compared the work results in January 2024 with December 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (January 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
In January 2024, 552 companies were surveyed.
Main results of the 21-th monthly enterprise survey:
• In January 2024, long-term expectations are improving, and uncertainty is easing, but the "here and now" recovery is stagnating amid business concerns about security, labor shortages, and demand issues.
• The Business Activity Recovery Index is positive but lower than a month ago.
• The Industrial Confidence Indicator is also positive, but the downward trend continues for the second month in a row.
• Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective has decreased. Uncertainty in the six-month perspective for the business activity continued to decrease gradually and remained unchanged for the overall economic environment. Uncertainty in the 3-month perspective is decreasing (or not increasing) for core expectations, excluding exports.
• Production indicators in January significantly worsened compared to December. At the same time, expectations regarding production in the three months horizon have not changed for the fourth month.
• Employment indicators are declining, and businesses are having trouble finding skilled workers.
• The enterprises' export results have worsened, but the expected changes in the short term remain positive. The share of enterprises operating at full capacity has remained unchanged for the third month in a row.
• The first place in the list of obstacles is shared by "unsafe to work" and "rising prices."
• The main events that businesses are waiting for are the end of the war and the reduction of taxes.
• More than half of the respondents have a neutral assessment of the Government's economic policy.
This paper presents forecasts for the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the period 2015-2015 for six countries in the region, namely the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. It is a continuation of the endeavor to construct synthetic indices measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity for twelve Central and East European countries using the Principal Component Analysis. In order to obtain forecasts of the FSI, we estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) models on monthly data for the period 2001-2012 separately for all the countries. Using quarterly historical values of ESI and FSI, we estimated Dynamic Panel Data Model for the complete sample of countries. Parameters of the model were later used for forecasting the ESI. Obtained results suggest that the FSI will start to rise in 2014 in the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Estonia. For Latvia and Hungary, we observed a conversion in the trend, i.e. at the beginning of 2015, when the index should start to fall. According to our forecasts, the ESI will be rising in the next two years, except for Hungary, where we predict a continuous decrease in economic sensitivity.
Authored by: Maciej Krzak and Grzegorz Poniatowski
Published in 2014
The impact of innovation on firm performance has been a matter of significant interest to economists and policy makers for decades. Although innovation is generally regarded as a means of improving the competitiveness of firms and their performance on domestic and foreign markets, this relationship has not been supported unambiguously by empirical work. Innovative activities of firms influence their performance not necessarily directly but through the production of useful innovations and increased productivity. Therefore, in recent years, the relationship between innovation and firm performance has been modelled by a multistageapproach. However, the findings from existing studies differ in many respects which suggests that there is the need for further research. In this paper we employ firm level data from the fourth Community Innovation Survey (CIS4), covering some 90,000 firms in 16 West and East European countries in order to assess the drivers of the innovation process in two different institutional settings, a number of mature market economies of WesternEurope and a number of advanced transition economies from Central and Eastern Europe. A four-equation model, originating in the work of Crepon et al., (1998), has been used to linkthe innovation decision of firms to their performance through the impact of innovation input on innovation output and the innovation output on productivity and better performance. Our findings confirm the positive relationship between innovation activities and productivity at the firm level and provide further evidence on the relationship between size and innovation activities.
Authored by: Iraj Hashi, Nebojsa Stojcic
Published in 2010
Summer Training Report on Fundamental AnalysisFellowBuddy.com
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The regulatory environment for businesses in Ukraine has been considered unfavorable and market unfriendly. Although various governments have made numerous efforts to improve it, many of these attempts have failed and increasing the quality of the regulatory environment in the country still remains on the agenda of the government. With this report we claim to review a set of measures undertaken in Ukraine after the Orange Revolution in the area of deregulation of business activity. The paper analyzes the effectiveness of actions undertaken in Ukraine in a general framework of successful regulatory policies implemented in other parts of the world. Based on this analysis we developed concrete public policy measures aiming to increase the quality of the regulatory environment in the country, which, in turn, should secure Ukraine’s further movement toward a real, functioning market economy.
Authored by: Ewa Balcerowicz, Oleg Ustenko
Published in 2006
The projection examines impact of demographic changes and changes in health status on future (up to 2050) health expenditures. Next to it, future changes in the labour market participation and their imact on the health care system revenues are examined. Results indicate that due to demographic pressures health expenditures will increase in the next 40 years and health care systems in the NMS will face deficit. Moreover, health revenues, expenditures and deficit/surplus are slightly sensitive to possible labour market changes. Health care system reforms are required in order to balance the disequilibrium of revenues and expenditures caused by external factors (demographic and economic), and decrease the premium needed to cover expenditures. Such reforms should lead, on the one hand, to the rationing of medical services covered by public resources, and on the other, to more effective governance and management of the sector and within the sector.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska, Ewa Kocot, Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2008
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
Резюме
• Темпи зростання реального ВВП сповільнились через проблеми з доступом до електроенергії внаслідок руйнування маневреної генерації електроенергії російськими дронами та ракетами.
• Експорт та імпорт продовжили зростати завдяки ліпшій логістиці як Українським морським коридором, так і автомобільним транспортом. Зокрема, польські фермери та перевізники припинили блокування кордонів в кінці квітня.
• В квітні як податкова, так і митна служби перевиконали розпис доходів, тоді як НБУ перерахував до бюджету вдвічі більше прибутків.
• Європейська сторона схвалила План України, який було ухвалено урядом для визначення індикаторів у межах Механізму для України (Ukraine facility). Це дозволить в травні отримати 1,9 млрд євро позики від ЄС. При цьому ЄС вже надав Україні 1,5 млрд євро позики в квітні, оскільки уряд вже виконав п’ять індикаторів за Планом України.
• США нарешті схвалили пакет допомоги Україні, в якому 7,8 млрд дол. США передбачено на бюджетну підтримку: однак умови та час надання допомоги досі невідомі.
• У квітні, як і у березні, річна споживча інфляція склала 3,2% дпр.
• НБУ на квітневому засідання з монетарної політики знову знизив облікову ставку з 14,5% до 13,5% річних.
• За останні чотири тижні курс гривні стабілізувався у проміжку 39-40 грн за дол. США.
ІЕД готує публікацію Макроекономічного моніторингу України за фінансової підтримки Європейського Союзу в рамках проєкту «Економіка України під час війни та підтримка українців, постраждалих від війни».
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 19. (11.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 19-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for November 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 19-th wave lasted from November 17 to November 30, 2023. In November, 539 companies were surveyed.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in November 2023 with October 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (November 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
Main results of the 19-th monthly enterprise survey:
• The economic recovery rate accelerated again amid the cessation of the downward trend in short-term optimism and the reduction of uncertainty.
• Uncertainty in the 3-month perspective has decreased significantly, and uncertainty in the 2-year perspective, although still high, has also decreased somewhat.
• The rate of business activity recovery compared to the previous year is high and has almost doubled compared to the previous month.
• Industrial confidence indicator increased, production indicators compared to previous months, and expectations for three months remain optimistic.
• The share of enterprises operating at full capacity has increased.
• Rising prices, insecurity, logistical problems, and labor shortages top the list of obstacles.
• The obstacle "unsafe to work" moved from the 3rd to the 2nd position in the list of obstacles.
• Employment indicators showed a seasonal slowdown, while the labor market experienced a shortage of unskilled workers.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 16. (08.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the Sixteenth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for August 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Sixteenth monthly enterprise survey:
• Despite the high level of long-term uncertainty and increased short-term uncertainty, enterprise performance has improved, and expectations remain high and rising again.
• Enterprise results improved compared to previous months, and expectations for production, sales, and exports for three months are rising again.
• The share of enterprises operating at almost full and full capacity remains unchanged (57% in August versus 59% in July).
• "Unsafe to work" and "power outages" remain among the significant obstacles to work.
• The percentage of respondents who cannot decide on an answer has significantly increased in assessments of the government's economic policy.
• "The end of the war" and "a good business climate" are the main expectations of businesses.
For reference: The "field" stage of the survey took place from August 15 to August 31, 2023; telephone interviews were conducted with representatives of 539 enterprises of all sizes located in 21 out of 27 regions of Ukraine.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 12. (04.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the twelfth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for April 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IED) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting” (IED) as part of the project “For Fair and Transparent Customs,” funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the twelfth monthly enterprise survey
In April, enterprises showed their best results for the entire survey period and remained optimistic (albeit somewhat less than before) about the near future. The importance of "unsafe to work" as an obstacle to doing business has decreased. Assessments of the current situation in the country and the business activity at the enterprise have increased, and expectations, while remaining high, have become somewhat more restrained than a month ago. The dynamics of production indicators were the best for the entire survey period. Uncertainty over the six- and three-month horizons continues to decrease (excluding exports and employment). But the longer-term future remains unclear for business: uncertainty over the two-year horizon is hi
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 13. (05.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the twelfth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for May 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the thirteenth monthly enterprise survey
• Amid the military escalation, business optimism remains quite high, while the long term remains uncertain.
• Assessments of the current financial and economic situation at the enterprise have slightly deteriorated, while assessments of the general economic situation in the country and expectations for the future remained unchanged.
• Uncertainty in the 6- and 3-month perspective has been declining for several months in a row.
• The two-year plans remain vague for business: uncertainty remains high, and, also, the share of enterprises that do not plan changes for such a long term has increased.
• As missile attacks intensified, the importance of "unsafe operation" and "power outages" has again increased slightly for doing business.
• Export activity remains unchanged, which indicates a certain stagnation of export recovery.
• The main challenge for exporters remains logistical problems.
• Economic policy assessments in most cases are neutral and do not change.
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 21-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for January 2024.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 21-th wave lasted from January 16 to January 31, 2024. The enterprise managers compared the work results in January 2024 with December 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (January 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
In January 2024, 552 companies were surveyed.
Main results of the 21-th monthly enterprise survey:
• In January 2024, long-term expectations are improving, and uncertainty is easing, but the "here and now" recovery is stagnating amid business concerns about security, labor shortages, and demand issues.
• The Business Activity Recovery Index is positive but lower than a month ago.
• The Industrial Confidence Indicator is also positive, but the downward trend continues for the second month in a row.
• Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective has decreased. Uncertainty in the six-month perspective for the business activity continued to decrease gradually and remained unchanged for the overall economic environment. Uncertainty in the 3-month perspective is decreasing (or not increasing) for core expectations, excluding exports.
• Production indicators in January significantly worsened compared to December. At the same time, expectations regarding production in the three months horizon have not changed for the fourth month.
• Employment indicators are declining, and businesses are having trouble finding skilled workers.
• The enterprises' export results have worsened, but the expected changes in the short term remain positive. The share of enterprises operating at full capacity has remained unchanged for the third month in a row.
• The first place in the list of obstacles is shared by "unsafe to work" and "rising prices."
• The main events that businesses are waiting for are the end of the war and the reduction of taxes.
• More than half of the respondents have a neutral assessment of the Government's economic policy.
This paper presents forecasts for the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the period 2015-2015 for six countries in the region, namely the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. It is a continuation of the endeavor to construct synthetic indices measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity for twelve Central and East European countries using the Principal Component Analysis. In order to obtain forecasts of the FSI, we estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) models on monthly data for the period 2001-2012 separately for all the countries. Using quarterly historical values of ESI and FSI, we estimated Dynamic Panel Data Model for the complete sample of countries. Parameters of the model were later used for forecasting the ESI. Obtained results suggest that the FSI will start to rise in 2014 in the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Estonia. For Latvia and Hungary, we observed a conversion in the trend, i.e. at the beginning of 2015, when the index should start to fall. According to our forecasts, the ESI will be rising in the next two years, except for Hungary, where we predict a continuous decrease in economic sensitivity.
Authored by: Maciej Krzak and Grzegorz Poniatowski
Published in 2014
The impact of innovation on firm performance has been a matter of significant interest to economists and policy makers for decades. Although innovation is generally regarded as a means of improving the competitiveness of firms and their performance on domestic and foreign markets, this relationship has not been supported unambiguously by empirical work. Innovative activities of firms influence their performance not necessarily directly but through the production of useful innovations and increased productivity. Therefore, in recent years, the relationship between innovation and firm performance has been modelled by a multistageapproach. However, the findings from existing studies differ in many respects which suggests that there is the need for further research. In this paper we employ firm level data from the fourth Community Innovation Survey (CIS4), covering some 90,000 firms in 16 West and East European countries in order to assess the drivers of the innovation process in two different institutional settings, a number of mature market economies of WesternEurope and a number of advanced transition economies from Central and Eastern Europe. A four-equation model, originating in the work of Crepon et al., (1998), has been used to linkthe innovation decision of firms to their performance through the impact of innovation input on innovation output and the innovation output on productivity and better performance. Our findings confirm the positive relationship between innovation activities and productivity at the firm level and provide further evidence on the relationship between size and innovation activities.
Authored by: Iraj Hashi, Nebojsa Stojcic
Published in 2010
Summer Training Report on Fundamental AnalysisFellowBuddy.com
FellowBuddy.com is an innovative platform that brings students together to share notes, exam papers, study guides, project reports and presentation for upcoming exams.
We connect Students who have an understanding of course material with Students who need help.
Benefits:-
# Students can catch up on notes they missed because of an absence.
# Underachievers can find peer developed notes that break down lecture and study material in a way that they can understand
# Students can earn better grades, save time and study effectively
Our Vision & Mission – Simplifying Students Life
Our Belief – “The great breakthrough in your life comes when you realize it, that you can learn anything you need to learn; to accomplish any goal that you have set for yourself. This means there are no limits on what you can be, have or do.”
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The regulatory environment for businesses in Ukraine has been considered unfavorable and market unfriendly. Although various governments have made numerous efforts to improve it, many of these attempts have failed and increasing the quality of the regulatory environment in the country still remains on the agenda of the government. With this report we claim to review a set of measures undertaken in Ukraine after the Orange Revolution in the area of deregulation of business activity. The paper analyzes the effectiveness of actions undertaken in Ukraine in a general framework of successful regulatory policies implemented in other parts of the world. Based on this analysis we developed concrete public policy measures aiming to increase the quality of the regulatory environment in the country, which, in turn, should secure Ukraine’s further movement toward a real, functioning market economy.
Authored by: Ewa Balcerowicz, Oleg Ustenko
Published in 2006
The projection examines impact of demographic changes and changes in health status on future (up to 2050) health expenditures. Next to it, future changes in the labour market participation and their imact on the health care system revenues are examined. Results indicate that due to demographic pressures health expenditures will increase in the next 40 years and health care systems in the NMS will face deficit. Moreover, health revenues, expenditures and deficit/surplus are slightly sensitive to possible labour market changes. Health care system reforms are required in order to balance the disequilibrium of revenues and expenditures caused by external factors (demographic and economic), and decrease the premium needed to cover expenditures. Such reforms should lead, on the one hand, to the rationing of medical services covered by public resources, and on the other, to more effective governance and management of the sector and within the sector.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska, Ewa Kocot, Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2008
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
Резюме
• Темпи зростання реального ВВП сповільнились через проблеми з доступом до електроенергії внаслідок руйнування маневреної генерації електроенергії російськими дронами та ракетами.
• Експорт та імпорт продовжили зростати завдяки ліпшій логістиці як Українським морським коридором, так і автомобільним транспортом. Зокрема, польські фермери та перевізники припинили блокування кордонів в кінці квітня.
• В квітні як податкова, так і митна служби перевиконали розпис доходів, тоді як НБУ перерахував до бюджету вдвічі більше прибутків.
• Європейська сторона схвалила План України, який було ухвалено урядом для визначення індикаторів у межах Механізму для України (Ukraine facility). Це дозволить в травні отримати 1,9 млрд євро позики від ЄС. При цьому ЄС вже надав Україні 1,5 млрд євро позики в квітні, оскільки уряд вже виконав п’ять індикаторів за Планом України.
• США нарешті схвалили пакет допомоги Україні, в якому 7,8 млрд дол. США передбачено на бюджетну підтримку: однак умови та час надання допомоги досі невідомі.
• У квітні, як і у березні, річна споживча інфляція склала 3,2% дпр.
• НБУ на квітневому засідання з монетарної політики знову знизив облікову ставку з 14,5% до 13,5% річних.
• За останні чотири тижні курс гривні стабілізувався у проміжку 39-40 грн за дол. США.
ІЕД готує публікацію Макроекономічного моніторингу України за фінансової підтримки Європейського Союзу в рамках проєкту «Економіка України під час війни та підтримка українців, постраждалих від війни».
Вперше за два роки відсоток українського бізнесу, який вважає небезпеку найбільшою перешкодою для ділової активності, досяг 55%. Про це свідчать результати щомісячного опитування підприємств New Monthly Enterprises Survey (#NRES), яке Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій провів у квітні 2024-го.
Частка підприємств, які повідомили, що працювати небезпечно, суттєво зросла, збільшившись із 46% до 55%. Це найвищий показник за весь період досліджень з травня 2022-го з травня 2022-го. Ця перешкода для ведення бізнесу стала головною у квітні для українських підприємств.
Водночас зростають позитивні очікування бізнесу щодо 6-місячної перспективи: як щодо фінансово-економічної ситуації на підприємстві, так і стосовно загально-економічного середовище в країні. Оцінка ситуації за цими двома параметрами позитивна вже другий місяць поспіль.
«Зважаючи на складну безпекову ситуацію, можна було б очікувати песимістичні настрої бізнесу, але насправді вийшло навпаки. Ми стикнулися з небувалим оптимізмом щодо бачення фінансово-економічної ситуації на підприємстві та в країні в цілому в піврічній перспективі. Невизначеність піврічної перспективи діяльності підприємств задекларували 20% опитаних компаній – і це можна вважати базовим рівнем. Продовжується тренд щодо зміцнення визначеності стосовно подальшої роботи підприємства у довгостроковій, тобто дворічній перспективі. При цьому ускладнюється ситуація з пошуком працівників – як кваліфікованих, так і некваліфікованих. Тренд щодо зростання цих труднощів спостерігаємо з вересня 2023 року», - зазначила виконавча директорка ІЕД Оксана Кузяків.
Так, частка підприємств, яким стало складніше знайти кваліфікованих працівників зросла з 38,9% у березні до 43 % у квітні. Аналогічний показник щодо некваліфікованої робочої сили зріс із 31,7% у березні до 36,6% у квітні.
Рейтинг перешкод для бізнесу суттєвих змін не зазнав, змінилося ранжування.
«Три головні перешкоди для ведення підприємницької діяльності залишилися такими ж, як минулого місяця, але у квітні «лідером» стала небезпека працювати (55% опитаних), на другому місці – зростання цін на сировину, матеріали, товари (51%), на третьому - брак робочої сили (43%). Значення небезпеки для роботи значно зросло для великого та середнього бізнесу. Дещо інша картина у розрізі перешкод для зростання бізнесу в контексті довгострокових тенденцій. Так, серед перешкод для зростання виробництва у квітні 2024 року найчастіше називали війну та несприятливу безпекову ситуацію. Наступними йшли, відповідно, низький попит, несприятлива політична ситуація та брак кваліфікованих працівників», - зазначив експерт ІЕД Євген Ангел.
Дисклеймер:
У щомісячному опитуванні Інституту економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій беруть участь понад 500 українських промислових підприємств, що розташовані у 21 із 27 областей України. Опитування у даному форматі проводиться з травня 2022 року. Польовий етап 23-ї хвилі дослідження тривав з 15 по 30 квітня 2024 року.
Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (ІЕД) випустив 23-тє Щомісячне опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» за березень 2024 року.
Метою проєкту є швидкий збір інформації про поточний стан економіки на рівні підприємства.
Польовий етап опитування тривав з 18 по 29 березня 2024 року.
Усього в 23й хвилі було опитано 523 підприємства. Підприємства розташовані у Вінницькій, Волинській, Дніпропетровській, Закарпатській, Запорізькій, Житомирській, Івано-Франківській, Київській, Кіровоградській, Львівській, Одеській, Полтавській, Рівненській, Сумській, Тернопільській, Харківській, Хмельницькій, Черкаській, Чернівецькій, Чернігівській областях та в місті Києві.
Ключові результати 23-го щомісячного опитування підприємств:
• Дворічна невизначеність зараз знаходиться на найнижчій точці за два роки з покращеними найближчими очікуваннями виробництва, але коротко- та середньострокова невизначеність зросла.
• Індекс Відновлення Ділової Активності та Агрегований Показник Перспектив Промисловості зростають, водночас, відсоток підприємств, що працюють на повну потужність, залишається без суттєвих змін.
• Шестимісячні очікування щодо фінансово-економічної активності підприємств та загальноекономічного середовища покращились, а виробничі показники два місяці поспіль покращуються.
• Результати роботи підприємств з експорту та очікування в тримісячній перспективі покращились.
• Разом із цим, зростають труднощі з пошуком працівників потрібної кваліфікації, брак кваліфікованих працівників посідає 2-ге місце в рейтингу перешкод із найвищим значенням від травня 2022 року.
• Після обстрілів енергетичної інфраструктури значення перешкоди «перебої з електрикою» суттєво зросло, а «небезпечно працювати» залишається без суттєвих змін.
• Оцінки економічної політики уряду залишаються переважно нейтральними.
Summary
• Businesses faced problems with access to electricity due to the russian shelling of energy facilities. This restrained GDP growth.
• Transportation by railway and through the Ukrainian Sea Corridor is growing, contributing to the development of several sectors of the economy.
• The value of goods exports declined sharply in March on a year-on-year basis amid continued decline in grain and iron ore prices.
• In March, a record external financing of USD 9 bn was received. Half the funds came from the EU as bridge financing under the Facility for Ukraine.
• The Government approved the Ukraine Plan, which defines priority steps and measures, the implementation of which should become the basis for the EU budget support.
• State fiscal revenues continued to grow, partly due to the windfall taxation of banks' profits.
• Inflation slowed to 3.2% yoy in March. Inflation was last at this level in the COVID year of 2020 and before the start of the russian aggression in 2014.
• The NBU lowered the policy rate to 14.5% p.a. in response to the low inflation and the resumption of aid from donors to Ukraine. However, the NBU moved cautiously as the Ukrainian economy faces serious risks.
• The hryvnia weakened to UAH 39 per USD as the NBU paced its support.
Резюме
• Підприємства стикнулись із обмеженнями у на постачання електроенергії внаслідок російських обстрілів енергетичних об’єктів. Це стримувало приріст ВВП.
• Транспортні перевезення Укрзалізницею та через Український морський коридор зростають, що сприяє розвитку ряду секторів економіки.
• Вартість товарного експорту різко скоротилась у березні у вимірі рік до року на тлі продовження зниження цін на зерно та залізні руди.
• В березні надійшло рекордне зовнішнє фінансування у сумі 9 млрд дол. США. Половина коштів надійшла від ЄС в межах перехідного фінансування за Механізмом для України.
• Уряд ухвалив План України, який визначає пріоритетні кроки та заходи, виконання яких має стати основою для надання бюджетної підтримки з боку ЄС.
• Доходи Державного бюджету продовжують зростати, частково завдяки оподаткуванню надприбутків банків.
• В березні інфляція сповільнилась до 3,2% дпр. До цього інфляція була на такому рівні у ковідному 2020 році та до початку російської агресії у 2014 році.
• НБУ знизив ставку до 14,5% річних на фоні низької інфляції та відновлення надходження допомоги від донорів України. Втім, НБУ рухався обережно через значні ризики.
• Гривня ослабла до 39 грн за дол. США на фоні стриманих інтервенцій НБУ.
Бізнес оптимістичніше дивиться у майбутнє, виробничі показники другий місяць поспіль покращуються, кількість працівників на підприємствах продовжує зростати. Водночас ускладнився пошук працівників та стало більше проблем з електропостачанням.
Такі висновки можна зробити з щомісячного опитування підприємств New Monthly Enterprises Survey (#NRES), яке Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій провів у березні 2024-го.
Основні результати спостережень
У березні частка компаній, що не можуть передбачити свою діяльність на наступні два роки, опустилась нижче 40% (до 39,4%). Тобто частка тих, хто планує свою діяльність у дворічній перспективі, збільшилась до 60,6%. Це найкращий показник з початку проведення щомісячних опитувань бізнесу під час війни – тобто з жовтня 2022.
У березні дещо зріс Індекс Відновлення Ділової Активності (ІВДА) - із 0,34 до 0,37 (за шкалою від -1 до +1). Частка підприємств, які повідомили, що їх ділова активність краща, ніж у попередньому році, збільшилась із 44,8% у лютому до 47,4% у березні. Показник ІВДА корелює із розміром підприємств. У березні значення ІВДА суттєво не змінилось і є найнижчим для мікропідприємств та поступово зменшується для малих. Водночас показник для середніх та великих підприємств збільшився.
Виробничі показники другий місяць поспіль покращуються, очікування щодо виробництва в перспективі на 3 місяці покращились. Частка підприємств, які планують зростання виробництва в найближчі 3-4 місяці, зросла із 43,8% до 54,4%.
“Дані, які ми отримали в ході березневого опитування, дають підстави говорити про весняне пробудження українського бізнесу. Минулого місяця невизначеність бізнесу на дворічну перспективу стала найнижчою за останні півтора роки, тобто з початку наших спостережень у жовтні 2022 року. На фоні цього ми спостерігали покращення короткострокових очікувань бізнесу щодо завантаженості власних потужностей, наявності клієнтів тощо, але разом з тим — і деяке зростання середньострокової та короткострокової невизначеності”, — зазначила Оксана Кузяків, виконавча директорка ІЕД.
Кількість працівників на підприємствах продовжує зростати одночасно зі зростанням труднощів у пошуку працівників необхідної кваліфікації.
“Результати опитування відображають складну ситуацію щодо доступу бізнесу до робочої сили. Фактично вперше половина українського підприємництва вказує про те, що це є суттєвою перешкодою. Наприклад, у 2022 році про це говорили лише близько 20% опитаних, минулого року ця перешкода трохи актуалізувалася і про неї вказувало близько третини опитаних. Але під кінець 2023 року ця перешкода в них опитуваннях почала постійно зростати”, - пояснив Євген Ангел, старший науковий співробітник ІЕД.
22-ге Щомісячне опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» (лютий 2024)
Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (ІЕД) випустив 22-ге Щомісячне опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» за лютий 2024 року.
Метою проєкту є швидкий збір інформації про поточний стан економіки на рівні підприємства.
Польовий етап опитування тривав з 19 до 29 лютого 2024 року..
Усього в 22й хвилі було опитано 542 підприємства. Підприємства розташовані у Вінницькій, Волинській, Дніпропетровській, Закарпатській, Запорізькій, Житомирській, Івано-Франківській, Київській, Кіровоградській, Львівській, Одеській, Полтавській, Рівненській, Сумській, Тернопільській, Харківській, Хмельницькій, Черкаській, Чернівецькій, Чернігівській областях та в місті Києві.
Ключові результати 22-го щомісячного опитування підприємств:
• У лютому 2024 року на тлі покращення короткострокових очікувань і традиційно високого рівня дворічної невизначеності дефіцит працівників став однією з ключових перешкод для розвитку бізнесу.
• Агрегований показник перспектив промисловості зріс, як і частка підприємств, що працюють на повну потужність.
• Водночас Індекс Відновлення Ділової Активності зменшується вже другий місяць поспіль.
• Невизначеність залишається високою у довгостроковій перспективі, та зросла для загальноекономічного середовища у піврічній перспективі.
• Очікування бізнесу на дворічну та піврічну перспективи залишаються без суттєвих змін.
• Виробничі показники та очікування на три місяці покращились, водночас очікування щодо експорту залишаються без змін.
• Незначною мірою зросла частка підприємств, які працюють на повну потужність порівняно з довоєнним періодом.
• Вперше за кілька місяців перервалась тенденція до скорочення кількості працівників, проте брак робочої сили як перешкода у веденні бізнесу займає другу позицію рейтингу перешкод ведення бізнесу, а проблеми із пошуком працівників залишились без змін порівняно до попереднього місяця.
• «Небезпечно працювати» хоча і не змінилась суттєво у відсотковому значенні, проте опустилась з першого на третє місце у рейтингу перешкод.
• Продовжується стагнація відновлення експортної діяльності.
• Відсоток негативних оцінок державної політики незначним чином зріс.
Resume
• According to the IER, real GDP growth accelerated to 5.6% yoy (year-on-year) in February 2024 from 3.1% yoy in January, partly due to the calendar effect.
• The power system survived the winter: the use of coal from thermal power plants and nuclear reactors increased. During this heating season, Ukraine used only gas of its own production for the first time in its history.
• Sea and rail transport had record performance against the backdrop of the blockade of the Polish border for trucks: 8 million tons and 14.6 million tons, respectively.
• According to preliminary customs estimates, trade in goods in February remained at the level of January 2024.
• State Budget revenues increased in February due to advance payment of dividends by state-owned banks and enterprises.
• In February, international financial assistance remained low, but we expect EUR 4.5 bn of bridge financing from the EU under the Ukraine Facility in March.
• Consumer inflation decelerated further to 4.3% yoy in February due to moderate growth in consumer demand and lower global commodity prices.
• Hryvnia remained stable for most of the first quarter of 2024, likely due to lower demand for foreign currency, including cash.
Резюме
• За оцінкою ІЕД темпи приросту реального ВВП прискорились до 5,6% дпр (до попереднього року) в лютому 2024 року з 3,1% дпр в січні частково через календарний ефект.
• Енергосистема витримала зиму: збільшилось використання вугілля ТЕС, а також атомних реакторів. В цьому опалювальному сезоні Україна вперше використовувала газ лише власного видобутку.
• На фоні блокади польського кордону для вантажівок морський та залізничний види транспорту б’ють рекорди з перевезень: 8 млн т та 14,6 млн т відповідно.
• За попередніми оцінками митниці, показники торгівлі товарами у лютому залишились на рівні січня 2024 року.
• Доходи Держбюджету в лютому зросли через авансову сплату дивідендів державними банками та підприємствами.
• Міжнародна фінансова допомога залишилась низькою в лютому, але вже в березні очікуємо 4,5 млрд євро перехідного фінансування від ЄС в межах Механізму для України.
• В лютому споживча інфляція надалі сповільнилась до 4,3% дпр на фоні помірного зростання споживчого попиту та зниження світових цін на сировину.
• Гривня залишалась стабільною протягом (більшості) першого кварталу 2024 року ймовірно через нижчий попит на іноземну валюту в тому числі готівкову.
ГО «Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій» (ІЕД) в рамках співпраці з регіонами підготував спеціальний звіт «Бізнес під час війни: Черкаська область» (грудень 2023).
Команда ІЕД зробила моніторинг економічної ситуації в Черкаській області в співпраці з Черкаською обласною державною адміністрацією. На основі Нового щомісячного опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» експерти ІЕД підготували шостий випуск дослідження для Черкаської області.
Щомісячне опитування підприємств проводиться за допомогою поєднання декількох методів збору даних: самостійне заповнення онлайн-форми та особисте опитування представників бізнесу із внесенням відповідей до онлайн-форми.
Польовий етап опитування тривав із 13 до 31 грудня 2023 року.
У листопаді 2023 року у Черкаській області було опитано 30 підприємств.
Серед них представлені підприємства від мікро до великого розмірів (найчастіше – середні). Усі опитані підприємства – промислові. Серед них найбільшу частку складають підприємства харчової промисловості.
Основне з дослідження:
• У грудні 2023 року керівники підприємств Черкаської області оцінюють власну фінансово-економічну ситуацію гірше, ніж загалом по країн.
• Спостерігається погіршення оцінок загальноекономічного середовища.
• Прогнози на піврічну перспективу щодо фінансово-економічної ситуації та загальноекономічного середовища, хоча і залишаються гіршими, ніж загалом по країні, але без суттєвих змін.
• При цьому, підприємці області утримуються від прогнозів на дворічну перспективу, тоді як загальноукраїнський показник довгострокових очікувань погіршився.
• Результати виробництва покращились і для регіону, і загалом по країні.
• На підприємствах Черкаської області відчувають незначні труднощі у пошуку кваліфікованих працівників, тоді як загалом по Україні збільшились труднощі і для кваліфікованих, і для некваліфікованих працівників.
ГО «Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій» (ІЕД) продовжує багаторічну роботу з українськими регіонами.
На основі Нового щомісячного опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» експерти ІЕД підготували черговий випуск дослідження для Київської області «Бізнес Київської області під час війни» за грудень 2023.
Польовий етап опитування тривав із 13 до 31 грудня 2023 року.
У грудні 2023 року в Київській області було опитано 21 підприємство. Серед них представлені підприємства від малого до великого розміру (найчастіше – великі). Усі опитані підприємства – промислові. Серед них найбільшу частку складають підприємства харчової промисловості.
Основне з дослідження:
• У грудні 2023 року оцінки підприємців Київської області щодо фінансово-економічної ситуації суттєво не змінились порівняно з листопадом, проте спостерігається поступове погіршення очікувань на піврічну перспективу.
• Оцінки та очікування щодо загальноекономічної ситуації по області поступово погіршуються, на відміну від загальноукраїнських значень, за якими суттєвих змін не відбувається.
• Динаміка відновлення в порівнянні з аналогічним періодом минулого року для області погіршилась, тоді як загалом по країні змін не відбулось.
• Очікування щодо дворічних перспектив погіршились як загалом по країні, так і для області.
• На відміну від загальноукраїнських показників, за якими спостерігається незначне покращення виробничих результатів та відсутні різкі зміни щодо очікувань на короткострокову перспективу, по області погіршились як показники результатів, так і очікування.
• Темпи скорочення зайнятості прискорились як по області, так і загалом по країні. Водночас, підприємці Київщини не відчувають труднощів у пошуку кваліфікованих або некваліфікованих працівників.
• На підприємствах Київської області рівень завантаження потужностей вищий ніж в цілому по Україні.
Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (ІЕД) випустив 21-ше Щомісячне опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» за січень 2024 року.
Метою проєкту є швидкий збір інформації про поточний стан економіки на рівні підприємства.
Польовий етап опитування тривав з 16 по 31 січня, 2024 року.
Усього в 21й хвилі було опитано 552 підприємства. Підприємства розташовані у Вінницькій, Волинській, Дніпропетровській, Закарпатській, Запорізькій, Житомирській, Івано-Франківській, Київській, Кіровоградській, Львівській, Одеській, Полтавській, Рівненській, Сумській, Тернопільській, Харківській, Хмельницькій, Черкаській, Чернівецькій, Чернігівській областях та в місті Києві.
Ключові результати 21го щомісячного опитування підприємств:
• У січні 2024 довгострокові очікування покращуються, невизначеність зменшується, але відновлення «тут та тепер» стагнує на фоні занепокоєнь бізнесу щодо безпеки, браку працівників та проблем із попитом.
• Індекс Відновлення Ділової Активності додатний, але менший ніж місяць тому. Агрегований показник перспектив промисловості також додатний, але два місяці поспіль триває тренд до зменшення.
• Невизначеність у дворічній перспективі знизилася.
• Невизначеність у піврічній перспективі для фінансово-економічної ситуації продовжує поступово зменшуватись та залишається без змін для загально-економічного середовища.
• Невизначеність у тримісячній перспективі зменшується (або не зростає) для основних очікувань, за винятком експорту.
• Виробничі показники в січні порівняно з груднем значно погіршилися, водночас, очікування щодо виробництва в перспективі на три місяці не змінюються вже чотири місяці.
• Показники зайнятості знижуються, а бізнес має проблеми з пошуком кваліфікованих працівників.
• Результати роботи підприємств з експорту погіршилися, але очікувані зміни в короткостроковій перспективі залишаються позитивними.
• Частка підприємств, що працюють на повну потужність, три місяці поспіль залишається без суттєвих змін.
• Перше місце в списку перешкод ділять перешкоди «працювати небезпечно» та «зростання цін».
• Головні події, на які очікує бізнес, - завершення війни та зниження податків.
• Більше половини опитаних нейтрально оцінюють економічну політику уряду.
Період моніторингу: з 1 січня по 15 лютого 2024 року
У цьому випуску:
Парламент погодив норми Податкового кодексу України з Митним тарифом України
Уряд вніс технічні зміни до переліків товарів, експорт та імпорт яких підлягає ліцензуванню, та квот на 2024 рік
Держмитслужба затвердила формат обміну даними з магазинами безмитної торгівлі
Підготовлено чергові зміни до Митного кодексу України в контексті його наближення до норм ЄС
Держмитслужба разом із молдовськими колегами запустила спільний контроль у п/п “Кучурган-Новосавицьке” для залізничного сполучення
Держмитслужба розпочала пілотний проєкт щодо здійснення постмитного контролю
На порталі «Єдине вікно для міжнародної торгівлі» додано можливість перегляду митної декларації в актуальному стані - із урахуванням коригувань
На двох митних постах – «Ужгород-автомобільний» і «Астей» Закарпатської митниці - буде встановлено сучасні модульні конструкції
Одним з пріоритетів у повоєнній відбудові України повинна стати безбар’єрність, адже в результаті війни суттєво зростає кількість осіб з інвалідністю - впевнена Олександра Бетлій, провідна наукова співробітниця Інституту економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (ІЕД). Своє бачення майбутньої безбар’єрної України вона представила під час обговорення лютневого моніторингу “Контролю витрат на відновлення України” консорціуму RISE, в який входить ІЕД.
Як пояснює Бетлій, наразі лише 22% обстежених Мінсоцполітики адміністратвних будівель є доступними, ще 32% – частково доступними. Найкраща ситуація — у ЦНАПах та закладах охорони здоров’я. Найгірша — у будинках, де розташовані органи держвлади.
На думку експертки, для покращення ситуації важливо ухвалити Національну стратегію зі створення безбар’єрного простору в Україні на період до 2030 року. Ця стратегія має на меті сформувати загальний підхід до формування та імплементації державної політики для забезпечення безперешкодного доступу всіх груп населення до різних сфер життєдіяльності.
Також, як вважає Бетлій, надзвичайно важливим є підвищення обізнаності о принципах безбар’єрності на місцях. Місцеві органи влади повинні включати принципи безбар’єрності при підготовці планів та програм відновлення. А громадська ініціатива спонукати чиновників швидше впроваджувати зміни. Крім того, потрібна подальша зміна будівельних стандартів та їх гармонізація з правилами ЄС.
Загалом, як витікає з оприлюдненої 15 лютого третьої редакції звіту про потреби відновлення України (RDNA-3), який відображає узгоджені оцінки Світового банку, ЄС та ООН загальна сума прямих збитків України внаслідок російської агресії становить $152,5 млрд, а потреби коштів на відновлення – $486 млрд. Звіт охоплює період з 24 лютого 2022-го по 31 грудня 2023-го.
Оцінка потреб у відновленні на 2024 рік становить $15 млрд, або 2% від загальних потреб. Втім, навіть за таких цифр у 2024 році брак фінансування становить $9,5 млрд, чи 62% від необхідного обсягу.
Дискусію можна подивитися на YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLtuUJpz2kg
Long-term prospects are on the rise, and uncertainty is gradually subsiding. However, the current recovery is at a standstill, plagued by business apprehensions regarding security, labor shortages, and demand issues. This encapsulates the sentiment among businesses in January 2024, as revealed by the research conducted by the IER team as part of the 21st #NRES monthly enterprise survey.
Of the surveyed enterprises, 56% reported that 2023 met their expectations, with 8% even surpassing expectations. Notably, there's a correlation between meeting 2023 expectations and enterprise size, with 77% of large enterprises reporting meeting or exceeding expectations compared to only 54% among micro-businesses.
"The results we obtained are quite optimistic. Given the turbulence experienced by Ukrainian businesses in 2023, I didn't expect to see such figures. It indicates that most enterprises are realistic in their planning," remarked Oksana Kuziakiv, executive director of IED.
According to the survey, three-month uncertainty regarding new orders and headcount expectations decreased among surveyed businesses (though it increased for exports). Uncertainty over the 6-month economic outlook decreased overall but rose for exports.
In addition to heightened uncertainty surrounding export prospects, surveyed companies also reported reduced exports. 34% of respondents had to decrease their exports in January compared to 20% in December. Meanwhile, the proportion of enterprises reporting increased exports dropped from 31% to 19%.
Overall, production indicators of surveyed enterprises worsened in January compared to December. The percentage of enterprises reducing production rose from 16.8% to 23.2%, and employment rates decreased slightly, with businesses facing challenges in finding qualified workers. However, Kuziakiv noted that the decline in employment might also be a seasonal trend.
Moreover, in January 2024, the index of business activity recovery worsened, with the proportion of enterprises reporting better business activity than the previous year decreasing from 64% in December to 56% in January.
The most cited obstacles to production growth among interviewed entrepreneurs include the war and unfavorable security situation, low demand, a shortage of qualified workers, and an unfavorable regulatory climate. However, corruption and pressure from law enforcement agencies were not deemed significant problems, according to the study.
Furthermore, over a fifth of surveyed Ukrainian enterprises identified lifting the blockade of western borders as a necessary change to improve the business climate in the country. For the first time, the survey also inquired about the impact of border closures on their businesses.
The survey included 552 enterprises from 21 regions of Ukraine operating in the manufacturing industry, retail, and agribusiness sectors. It was conducted from January 16 to 31, 2024.
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine
No.229, February 2024
Resume
• According to the IER, the real GDP growth rate was 3.1% yoy in January 2024.
• The power system remains balanced despite russian shelling. Due to the cold weather, industry and the population increased electricity consumption.
• The Ukrainian Sea Corridor is working well, but trucks at the border are blocked again. Exports by sea in January amounted to 8.7 m tons, and another 2.7 m tons were transported by rail.
• The strike of Polish farmers hinders Ukraine's foreign trade. Since February 12, they have blocked five border crossing points on the Ukrainian-Polish border.
• The current account deficit in 2023 was 5.5% of GDP. The key factors are sharply increased goods trade deficit against reduced grants and expanded investment payments.
• In January 2024, a minimal amount of external financial assistance was received. Expenditures were significantly lower than planned.
• The EU almost approved aid to Ukraine, while a heated debate continues in the United States.
• At the beginning of 2024, consumer inflation decelerated to 4.7% yoy. It was below 5% for the first time since 2020.
• The hryvnia stabilized in 2024 due to a better balance between exports and imports.
• The NBU left the key policy rate at 15% per annum in January and confirmed that there are currently no plans to reduce the rate significantly in 2024.
Місячний Економічний Моніторинг України
№229, лютий 2024 року
Резюме
• За оцінкою ІЕД темпи приросту реального ВВП становили 3,1% дпр у січні 2024 року
• Енергосистема зберігає збалансованість попри російські обстріли. Через холодну погоду зростає споживання електроенергії як промисловістю, так і населенням.
• Український морський коридор працює добре, але знову заблокований автотранспорт. Експорт морським транспортом в січні становив 8,7 млн т, ще 2,7 млн т перевезли залізницею.
• Страйк польських фермерів перешкоджає зовнішній торгівлі України. З 12 лютого ними заблоковано п’ять пунктів пропуску на україно-польському кордоні.
• Дефіцит рахунку поточних операцій у 2023 році склав 5.5% від ВВП. Ключові фактори – різке збільшення дефіциту торгівлі товарами на тлі скорочення грантової допомоги та розширення інвестиційних виплат.
• У січні 2024 року надійшла надзвичайна мала сума зовнішньої фінансової допомоги. Видатки були суттєво нижчі за план.
• ЄС майже схвалив допомогу Україні, тоді як в США тривають гарячі дебати.
• На початку 2024 року споживча інфляція сповільнилась до 4,7 % дпр. Вона була нижча 5% вперше з 2020 року.
• Гривня стабілізувалась у 2024 році через кращий баланс між експортом та імпортом
• НБУ залишив облікову ставку на рівні 15% річних у січні і підтвердив, що значного зниження ставки у 2024 році наразі не планується
ІЕД опублікував результати чергового, 21-го щомісячного опитування підприємств #NRES
Довгострокові очікування покращуються, невизначеність зменшується, але відновлення «тут та зараз» стагнує на фоні занепокоєнь бізнесу щодо безпеки, браку працівників та проблем з попитом, - так можна резюмувати настрої бізнесу у січні 2024-го, які команда ІЕД дослідила в рамах 21-го щомісячного опитування підприємств #NRES
56% опитаних підприємств відповіли, що 2023 рік відповідав їх очікуванням, а для 8% навіть перевищив їхні очікування. При цьому, існує зв’язок між відповідністю 2023-го очікуванням і розміром підприємства. Так, 77% великих підприємств 2023-й назвали очікуваним, або таким що перевершує їх очікування. У той же час, серед мікробізнесу таких було лише 54%.
“Результат, який ми отримали, є досить оптимістичним. Я не очікувала побачити такі цифри, враховуючи турбулентність і події, які пережив у 2023-му український бізнес. Це означає, що більшість підприємств реалістично ставиться до планування”, - говорить Оксана Кузяків, виконавча директорка ІЕД.
Як показує дослідження, серед опитаних підприємств також зменшилася невизначеність у перспективі трьох місяців для очікувань щодо нових замовлень і кількості працівників (хоча і зросла для експорту). Невизначеність у 6-місячній перспективі знизилася для загально-економічного середовища, але також зросла для експорту.
Окрім зростання пов’язаної з перспективами експорту невизначеністю, опитані підприємства повідомляють і безпосередньо про скорочення експорту. Так, у січні довелося скоротити експорт 34% респондентів (у грудні таких було 20%). Доля ж підприємств, які повідомляють про зростання експорту, знизилася з 31% у грудні до 19% у січні.
У січні, порівняно з груднем, виробничі показники опитаних підприємств погіршилися і в цілому. Так, доля підприємств, що скоротили обсяги виробництва, збільшився з 16,8% у грудні до 23,2% у січні. Дещо знизилися і показники зайнятості, а бізнес має проблеми з пошуком кваліфікованих працівників. Хоча, як зауважує Кузяків, скорочення зайнятості може бути і сезонною тенденцією.
Також, у січні 2024 року погіршився так званий індекс відновлення ділової активності (його розраховують згідно з долею відповідей на питання: як краще - “як є зараз” чи “як це було рік тому”). Частка підприємств, які повідомили, що їх ділова активність краща, ніж у попередньому році, знизилася з 64% у грудні до 56% у січні.
Серед перешкод для зростання виробництва опитані підприємці найчастіше згадували війну та несприятливу безпекову ситуацію, низький попит, дефіцит кваліфікованих працівників та несприятливий регуляторний клімат. Корупція та тиск з боку правоохоронних органів, як показує дослідження, не є суттєвими проблемами.
Крім того, більше п’ятої частини опитаних українських підприємств у якості очікуваних змін, необхідних для покращення бізнес-клімату в країні, назвали зняття блокади західних кордонів. Щодо впливу блокування кордонів на їхній бізнес під час цього дослідження запитали вперше.
Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій взяв участь у підготовці стратегії: “Бачення України 2030”
Якою буде Україна після перемоги у війні? Відповідь на це питання, принаймні у частині економічної політики, покликана дати стратегія: “Бачення України 2030”, підготовлена “Спілкою підприємців України” за підтримки USAID та за участю експертів Інституту економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (ІЕД).
Як зазначає документ, роль держави в економіці повинна фокусуватися на створенні рівних правил гри, захисту прав власності, чесної конкуренції та прав споживачів. Це дозволить перетворити Україну в країну з вільною ринковою економікою, одне з найбільш привабливих місць в Європі для ведення бізнесу й інвестицій.
Голова Правління ІЕД Ігор Бураковський та провідна економістка ІЕД Ірина Коссе у рамах документа представили візії розвитку інфраструктури та “зеленої трансформації” України до 2030 року.
На думку експертів ІЕД міжнародна допомога та конфіскація на користь України активів РФ дозволять отримати кошти, необхідні для модернізації застарілої та зруйнованої інфраструктури. Тому ко 2030-му транспортна та логістична системи України здатні відновити транзитний потенціал та інтегруватися у європейський транспортний простір. Це означатиме створення спільних транспортних маршрутів з партнерськими країнами, включаючи значне розширення пропускної здатності як річкових портів, так і сухопутних маршрутів.
Втім, щоб ця візія стала реальністю, потрібно вже зараз провести глибокі реформи в інфраструктурній галузі, зокрема чітко розмежувати сфери відповідальності між державою, бізнесом та регіонами. Реформа корпоративного управління та реструктуризація великих державних компаній («Укрпошта», «Укрзалізниця» тощо), є критично необхідним етапом цього процесу. Крім того, Україні належить імплементувати значну кількість європейських норм, які гармонізують регулювання транспортної галузі з нормативами ЄС. Так, лише у сфері залізничного сполучення Україні належить імплементувати 7 директив та 4 регламенти ЄС.
Що ж стосується візії екологічної трансформації України, на думку експертів ІЕД, перш за все державі потрібно оновити й гармонізувати з європейськими екологічні політики та зобов’язання щодо зниження викидів. Це питання, зокрема, повстане під час перемовин про вступ до ЄС. Втім, зелена трансформація вимагатиме значних коштів, які Україні доведеться залучати на зовнішніх фінансових ринках. Тому Україна вже зараз має активно просувати ідею запровадження спеціальних боргових свопів «борг-на-клімат», коли країна-кредитор списує борг, тоді як країна-боржник зобов’язується інвестувати відповідні кошти в екологічні проєкти. Також Україна повинна створювати умови для розвитку національного ринку фінансування екологічних проєктів, зокрема через створення окремого ринку зелених облігацій. Розвиток такого ринку вимагає часу, створення нормативно-регуляторного середовища та зрілості національного фінансового ринку.
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Montly_survey_4.pdf
1.
2. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
1
Project implementation:
Institute for Economic Research and Policy
Consulting
Financial support:
The project is implemented with the financial
support of the European Union
International Renaissance Foundation
Atlas Network
Authors of the report:
Oksana Kuziakiv, Executive Director at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, Project Manager
for the project “Support for the Public Initiative “For Fair and Transparent Customs”
Yevhen Anhel, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting
Anastasia Gulik, Junior Research Fellow at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting
Iryna Fedets, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting
The publication was prepared as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs", funded by the European Union and
co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation, and the ATLAS Network (USA). Its content is the responsibility of
the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting and does not necessarily represent the position of the European
Union, the Renaissance Foundation, or the ATLAS Network.
INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND POLICY CONSULTING
Reytarska 8/5-А, 01054 Kyiv, Ukraine
tel.: +38(044) 278-63-42; +38 (044) 278-63-60; fax: +38(044) 278-63-36
institute@ier.kyiv.ua
www.ier.com.ua
Facebook IER
Facebook “For Fair and Transparent Customs”
Telegram channel “Fair Customs”
3. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
2
ABOUT THE NEW MONTHLY SURVEY “UKRAINIAN BUSINESS IN WARTIME”
Dear ladies and gentlemen, we present you with the fourth issue of the business managers’ monthly survey
“Ukrainian Business in Wartime”.
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The
Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business
Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level.
The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key
economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for
future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new
orders, employment, etc. We will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate
and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency
survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer
Surveys (BCS) requirements. Where applicable, we will use comparisons with the data from the quarterly business
survey “Business Opinion” that have been conducted since 1998.
The special part of this issue is devoted to the war's impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports
and the assessment of government policy on business support.
The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue for the second time.
The monthly survey of business managers is a part of a change in the activities of the project “For Fair and
Transparent Customs”, funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance
Foundation, and the ATLAS Network (USA). Monthly trends will be presented in reports such as this one. Quarterly
trends will continue to be published in the “Business Survey: Industry” reports, which have been published by the
IER since July 2002.
We are grateful to the analytical system YouControl (https://youcontrol.com.ua/) for the opportunity to use the
data to form a panel sample.
4. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
3
Content
PRACTICAL QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS TO HELP YOU READ THIS REPORT..................................................................5
MAIN RESULTS...........................................................................................................................................................6
INDICATORS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE HALF-YEAR PERIOD..................................................................................9
BUSINESSS ACTIVITY AT THE ENTERPRISE ...............................................................................................................9
OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT.....................................................................................................................9
UNCERTAINTY ......................................................................................................................................................10
Half-year expectations......................................................................................................................................10
Three-month expectations ...............................................................................................................................11
ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS ..........................................................12
PRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................................................12
Changes compared to the previous month .......................................................................................................12
Expectations for changes in production............................................................................................................12
SALES ...................................................................................................................................................................13
Changes compared to the previous month .......................................................................................................13
Expected sales changes ....................................................................................................................................13
EXPORT................................................................................................................................................................14
Changes compared to the previous month .......................................................................................................14
Expected changes in exports ............................................................................................................................14
STOCKS OF RAW MATERIALS................................................................................................................................15
Changes compared to the previous month .......................................................................................................15
STOCKS OF FINISHED GOODS ...............................................................................................................................16
Changes compared to the previous month .......................................................................................................16
Expected stocks of finished goods ....................................................................................................................16
NEW ORDERS .......................................................................................................................................................17
Changes compared to the previous month .......................................................................................................17
Expected changes to new orders ......................................................................................................................17
ACCOUNT RECEIVABLES .......................................................................................................................................18
Changes compared to the previous month .......................................................................................................18
Expected changes in account receivables .........................................................................................................18
ACCOUNT PAYABLES ............................................................................................................................................19
Changes compared to the previous month .......................................................................................................19
Expected changes in account payables .............................................................................................................19
TAX ARREARS.......................................................................................................................................................20
Changes compared to the previous month .......................................................................................................20
5. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
4
Expected changes in tax arrears .......................................................................................................................20
NUMBER OF WORKERS ........................................................................................................................................21
Changes compared to the previous month .......................................................................................................21
Expected changes in the number of workers ....................................................................................................21
WORKERS ON FORCED LEAVE...............................................................................................................................22
Changes compared to the previous month .......................................................................................................22
Expected change in the number of workers on forced leave.............................................................................22
SKILLED AND UNSKILLED WORKERS......................................................................................................................23
Skilled workers.................................................................................................................................................24
Unskilled workers.............................................................................................................................................24
SPECIAL PART OF THE SURVEY ..................................................................................................................................25
THE IMPACT OF WAR ON ENTERPRISES.................................................................................................................25
Challenges for businesses in wartime...................................................................................................................25
The war impact on production volume.................................................................................................................27
THE WAR IMPACT ON THE ENTERPRISES’ EXPORT ACTIVITIES...............................................................................30
GOVERNMENT POLICY .........................................................................................................................................32
Assessment of government policy to support business.....................................................................................32
What will improve the business situation? Expected measures and changes ....................................................33
The field phase of the survey lasted from August 5 to 17, 2022. ...........................................................................35
SAMPLE................................................................................................................................................................35
APPENDIX 1. Survey results in figures...................................................................................................................36
6. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
5
PRACTICAL QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS TO HELP YOU READ THIS REPORT
Who do we survey? This survey uses a panel sample; that means we survey the same business entities. Building
such a sample takes time. During the fourth wave of the survey, the research goal of receiving monthly responses
from 500 enterprises was achieved for the first time. In the first month, 327 enterprises were interviewed, in the
second - 367 ones, and in the third month they were already 449. During the fourth wave, 518 respondents were
interviewed. They include mainly industrial enterprises located in 21 of the 27 regions of Ukraine: Vinnytsya,
Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhya, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolayiv,
Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and in the Kyiv
city.
How do we collect data? Data was collected using a combination of several data collection methods: self-
completion of the online checklist and telephone interviews of business representatives filling out their responses
into an online check-list.
How are our indices calculated? All indices are calculated according to a single methodology. We count responses
as +1 when the company responds that the rate has increased, 0 if it has not changed, and -1 if it has decreased.
For example, if out of 100 respondents, 20 indicated an increase in production, 50 respondents reported its
reduction, and 30 said that everything remained unchanged, the corresponding value of the index will be -0.30. A
positive (negative) index value means that the share of enterprises where production has increased is larger
(smaller) than the number of those where production has decreased. Each index bigger than +0.05 or less than -
0.05 is statistically significant, and different from zero with a 5% error probability.
How to "read" our indicators? Our indicators are called "indices," which is a synonym of the term "balance index"
or "balance indicator." All indices are the difference between the shares of respondents who reported a decrease
and those who reported an increase in the indicator. The bigger the index value, the bigger the rate of indicator
growth; the smaller the index value, the bigger the rate of indicator decline.
For most indicators, a higher value of the index means a positive trend, except for indicators of debts, the number
of workers on forced leave, and difficulties in finding personnel. Everything is the opposite here. The larger the
index, the greater the rate of debt growth or the increase in the number of people on forced leave and hardships
(this is bad), the smaller the index, the greater the rate of debt reduction, the decrease in the number of people
on forced leave or hardships (this is good).
When the survey was conducted? The field stage of the fourth wave lasted from August 5 to August 17, 2022.
The enterprises' managers compared the results of work in July 2022 with June 2022, assessed the state of
indicators at the time of the survey (August 2022), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months
depending on the question. For some questions (where it was mentioned) the work results were compared to
ones in the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022). Respondents gave forecasts for the next three months of
work.
7. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
6
MAIN RESULTS
In August, the recovery of production continued, but the dynamics of the indicators of the economic environment
indicate a possible slowdown in the trend towards the recovery of economic activity in the industry. The rate of
growth of business optimism regarding future changes in the general economic environment has significantly
decreased, and business expectations regarding the situation at the enterprise in the six-month horizon have also
worsened (however, in both cases the share of "optimists" exceeds "pessimists", which is an encouraging fact).
The reduction in uncertainty has stopped but is increasing in the short term. Production expectations for three
months remain positive, although there is also a trend to slow growth. Enterprises in industries that provide basic
human needs continue to overcome difficulties best. Rising prices, logistical problems, and lack of working capital
top the list of obstacles to doing business. Assessments of state support policy continue to deteriorate. In August,
the hryvnia devaluation was added to the most expected events for business, which, like two months ago, are the
end of the war and the de-occupation of Ukraine’s territories.
OVERALL INDICATORS OF BUSINESS CLIMATE AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
After two months of growth, the value of the current business activity index in August compared to July
decreased from -0.20 to -0.22.
The expectations of enterprises regarding changes in the business activity in the next six months
significantly worsened; the value decreased from 0.12 to 0.03.
The overall economic environment index continued to grow in August. It is increasing due to a significant
decrease in the share of "pessimists" from -0.37 to -0.28. But the share of "optimists" also decreased.
Deterioration of expectations for the future indicates a possible termination of the trend to improve the
overall economic environment evaluations in the future (the index of expected changes in the overall
economic environment decreased from 0.09 in July to 0.01 in August).
In August, the decrease in the level of uncertainty in the long-term horizon, which lasted for two months,
stopped. And for short-term expectations, there was a kind of increase in uncertainty, particularly
regarding exports and output.
PRODUCTION
In August, compared to July, the positive trend towards a decrease in the rate of production reduction
continued. The index of changes in production increased from -0.12 to -0.09 due to a decrease in the share
of respondents who reported a reduction in production.
In the following months, the positive trend towards a decrease in the rate of decline may stagnate.
Business expectations are positive, but the value of the Index of expected changes in production volumes
decreased from 0.24 to 0.20 due to a decrease in the share of respondents who plan to increase
production.
DEMAND AND SALES
In August, the rates of sales reduction and the number of new orders decreased. The value of the index
of changes in sales increased from -0.16 to -0.09, and the index of changes in new orders — from -0.19 to
-0.02.
In the following months, the positive trend towards a decrease in demand reduction rates may stop.
Business expectations remain positive, but the Indices of expected changes in sales and new orders
decreased (from 0.23 to 0.20 and from 0.25 to 0.23, respectively).
DEBTS
In August, the indices of changes in accounts receivables (0.05 and 0.05) and accounts payables (0.00 and
0.00) remain unchanged.
In the three-month, the rate of reduction in accounts receivables and accounts payables will slow down.
But the negative value of the indices indicates that no significant problems should be expected (the index
of expected changes from -0.16 to -0.13 for receivables and from -0.19 to -0.13 for accounts payables).
8. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
7
Enterprises are likely to increase their tax arrears; the value of the corresponding index increased from -
0.14 to -0.06 in August. The value of the index of expected changes in tax arrears also worsened, doubling
from -0.18 to -0.09.
EMPLOYMENT
In August compared to July, the pace of employment reduction at enterprises continued to slow down,
and the employment change index almost halved, from -0.16 to -0.09.
In the next three months, the trend toward employment stabilization is expected to be suspended. The
index of expected changes decreased from 0.11 to 0.04.
The reduction of problems finding employees with the required skills is also evidence of the positive
trends stagnation.
In August, compared to July, the index value for the difficulty finding skilled workers decreased from 0.18
to 0.06, and for the unskilled workers, it changed slightly, decreasing from -0.06 to -0.07.
OBSTACLES TO DOING BUSINESS IN WARTIME
Rising prices for raw materials and supplies, difficulties with transporting raw materials or goods
throughout Ukraine, and a lack of working capital top the list of obstacles to doing business.
In August compared to July, according to the respondents, the importance of the lack of working capital
problem increased, and the importance of problems with demand decreased. As a result, they switched
places in the rating of the obstacles as the lack of working capital became one out of the top three
obstacles.
A significant reduction in the weight of the labor shortage (the share of respondents who indicated this
problem decreased from 34% to 13%) and the lack of fuel (from 36% to 13%, respectively) was recorded.
26% choose “it is dangerous to work” as an obstacle to doing business. It is almost the same share as in
July but a smaller one compared to May (when 34% of the respondents chose this answer).
PRODUCTION CAPACITIES DURING THE WAR PERIOD
Production recovery continued in August. The share of enterprises that do not operate or work by less
than 25% capacity compared to the pre-war period is decreasing. 3% of enterprises surveyed do not
operate at all (3% in July). And 7% of enterprises operate less than 25% compared to the pre-war period
(12% in July and 14% in June).
There remains a high share of enterprises that work almost at full production capacities (for 75-99% of
the pre-war scale): 36% in August and July.
The share of enterprises operating at 50-74% increased by one and a half times compared to pre-war
volumes: from 23% in July to 33% in August.
Along with the positive trends mentioned above, others were also observed. For example, the share of
respondents who worked at full capacity continues to decrease from 15% in May to 12% in June, 10% in
July, and 8% in August.
Industries that provide basic human needs continue to overcome the war challenges the best. Thus, food
industry enterprises demonstrate the best performance: 17% of respondents operate at 100% or more
compared to the pre-war period (24% in July).
GOVERNMENT POLICY
Assessments of state policy regarding business support continue to deteriorate.
Business representatives most often give neutral assessments to the state policy on business support
(51%). However, the share of negative assessments has increased compared to July 2022 (up to 28%).
The smaller the size of the enterprises, the more often they assess the policy negatively and less often,
neutrally.
9. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
8
The most expected events and changes for business in August 2022 are ending the war, de-occupying
Ukraine's territories, and stopping hryvnia devaluation.
EXPORTING ENTERPRISES
In the August survey, among all respondents, 53% of respondents were exporters as of the beginning of
2022. The business continues to actively work on the export activity recovery, although the concerns we
wrote about last month are beginning to be fulfilled.
The value of the index of changes in exports increased compared to July from -0.31 to -0.24. It happened
only due to a decrease in the share of respondents whose export volumes decreased and an increase in
the share of those whose exports increased.
At the same time, the expected changes in exports in three months are not as optimistic as they were a
month ago. The share of respondents who plan to increase exports in August compared to July has
decreased.
In August, 19% of enterprises reported they had resumed exports after their temporary suspension due
to the war (from 9% in May, 20% in June, and 26% in July). The share of exporters that have not yet
resumed sales abroad decreased to 20% (it was 27% in July, 40% in June, and 47% in May, respectively).
The situation is critical for micro-businesses, where every second (56%) enterprise has still not been able
to resume exports (as in July and June). We should note that in general, in August the situation improved
compared to July for businesses of all sizes except for micro-enterprises.
The situation continues to worsen in some industries: the share of enterprises that stopped exporting
during the war has increased. Thus, 43% of chemical industry enterprises (27% in July) and 24% of
woodworking enterprises (0% in July) have stopped exporting and have not yet been able to resume it.
10. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
9
INDICATORS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE HALF-YEAR PERIOD
BUSINESSS ACTIVITY AT THE ENTERPRISE
The index of the current business activity in August compared to July, after a gradual increase for three months,
slightly worsened, decreasing from -0.20 in July to -0.22 in August. It happened due to a slight increase in the
share of respondents who assessed the current business activity at the enterprise as bad, from 31.9% to 32.5%.
And the share of those who positively assess the situation at the enterprise decreased more significantly, from
10.3% to 6.9%. The share of respondents considering the business activity at the enterprise to be satisfactory
increased from 57.8% to 60.6% in the fourth wave of the survey.
Expectations for six months significantly worsened: the value of the index of expected changes in the business
activity decreased from 0.12 to 0.03. It happened due to an increase in the share of "pessimists" from 18.5% to
20.5% and a decrease in the share of "optimists" from 31.6% to 22.8%. The share of those who do not expect any
changes increased from 49.8% to 56.8%. The share of respondents who could not give a forecast regarding
changes in the business activity at the enterprise in the six-month horizon decreased from 31.4% in July to 29.0%
in August.
Fig. 1. Business activity at the enterprise, indices
OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
In contrast to the business activity, the assessment of the overall economic environment continued to improve.
The value of the corresponding index increased from -0.37 in July to -0.28 in August. It happened due to a decrease
in the share of respondents assessing the overall economic situation as bad, from 45.5% to 36.3%. The share of
those who assess the overall economic situation positively also decreased (from 8.5% to 4.8%, respectively). The
share of those who consider the overall economic environment to be satisfactory increased from 46.0% in July to
58.8% in August.
In August, the enterprises' forecasts for the next six months continued the downward trend: the value of the index
of expected changes in the overall economic environment decreased from 0.09 in July to 0.01. Both the share of
"optimists" (from 34.2% to 22.3%) and the share of "pessimists" (from 23.3% to 22.6%) decreased. The share of
those who believe that the overall economic environment will not change during the next six months increased
from 42.5% to 55.1%. The share of those who could not give forecasts regarding the state of the overall economic
environment changed slightly, from 33.9% to 33.2%.
-0.36
-0.32
-0.20
-0.22
0.07
0.15
0.12
0.03
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22
Index of the business activity at the enterprise
Index of the expected business activity at the enterprise
11. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
10
Fig. 2. Overall economic environment, indices
UNCERTAINTY
Half-year expectations
The level of uncertainty in August compared to July in forecasts of both the business activity and the overall
economic environment decreased, although not very significantly. As already mentioned, the share of
respondents, who could not forecast changes in the business activity at the enterprise in six months, decreased
from 31.4% to 29.0%. And the share of unable to predict the overall economic environment in the country
shortened from 33.9 % to 33.2%.
Fig. 3. The level of the business activity and the overall economic environment uncertainty, % of respondents
The level of uncertainty regarding the business activity at the enterprise and its dynamics depend on the size of
the enterprise. The uncertainty indicator decreases as the size of the enterprise increases. In addition, different
dynamics of this indicator are observed for enterprises of different sizes. The value for micro-enterprises
decreased the most (from 54.2% to 34.4%), and the level of uncertainty for large enterprises increased from 21.6%
to 24.8%. The uncertainty indicator decreased the least for small (from 35.5% to 30.3%) and medium (from 29.2%
to 29.0%) enterprises.
-0.54
-0.44
-0.37
-0.28
0.01
0.16
0.09
0.01
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22
Index of the current overall economic environment
Index of the expected overall economic environment
45.0% 43.3%
31.4%
29.0%
47.7%
43.6%
33.9%
33.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22
No answer on business activity in six month
No answer on economic environment in six month
12. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
11
Fig. 4. The share of respondents unable to answer the question about the change in the business activity in six months
Uncertainty about the overall economic environment in the country also tends to decrease as the size of the
enterprise increases. At the same time, the indicators are not too different for micro (the value decreased from
47.9% to 37.5%) and small enterprises (the value decreased from 41.3% to 36.6%) and are significantly lower,
despite the increase in the value, for medium (the percentage increased from 30.4% to 31.2%) and large (the
percentage increased from 26.5% to 30.2%) enterprises.
Fig. 5. The share of respondentsunable to answer the question regarding the change in the overall economic environment in sixmonths
Three-month expectations
In the three-month horizon, there is an increase in uncertainty for all production indicators. The highest
indicators of uncertainty remain for accounts receivables (the value increased from 11.4% to 16.6%) and accounts
payables (the value increased from 11.4% to 16.2%). The lowest level of uncertainty is for stocks of finished goods
(although the value increased from 10.2% to 13.5%). The level of uncertainty increased the most for export (more
than doubled, from 6.2% to 13.9%) and for production (the value increased from 8.2% to 14.3%).
Fig. 6. The share of enterprises that could not forecast a change in the indicator in the future three months, % of respondentsi
56.20
58.20
48.00
42.90
32.70
40.80
44.20
51.80
54.17
35.48
29.17
21.57
34.38
30.28 28.96
24.81
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
Micro Small Medium Large
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Sep.22
56.30
59.30
54.50
50.70
34.60
47.60
42.60
45.80
47.92
41.13
30.36
26.47
37.50 36.62
31.15 30.23
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
Micro Small Medium Large
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Sep.22
13. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
12
ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS
PRODUCTION
Changes compared to the previous month
In August, the positive trend towards a decrease in the rate of production reduction continued. The index of
changes in production in August compared to July continued the upward trend and is -0.09 (it was -0.12). Both
the share of enterprises where production decreased (from 27.5% in July to 22.9% in August) and the share of
enterprises that reported an increase in production decreased from 15.0% in July to 13.5% in August. At the same
time, the share of respondents who did not experience any changes increased from 57.5% to 63.5%.
Size. Among enterprises of different sizes, medium-sized enterprises (the index of changes in production is -0.03)
and large enterprises, for which the value is -0.06, feel the best. The indicator for micro-enterprises is the worst
— -0.23. The indicator value for small enterprises is -0.14. 6Region. In the regional context, the Poltava region
enterprises had the best indicators (0.50). The worst situation was at enterprises in Zakarpattya (-0.43),
Zaporizhzhya, and Chernivtsi (-0.40 each) regions.
Sector. Index values vary among sectors and industries. The best situation in the food industry (0.08) and this is
the only positive indicator. The printing industry index is zero. Indicators for other industries have a negative
value, and the lowest values are for metalworking (-0.41) and construction materials production (-0.40).
Expectations for changes in production
Enterprises' production plans for three months lost some optimism, and the index of expected changes in
production decreased from 0.24 to 0.20. The share of enterprises planning to increase production shortened from
19.3
17.4
16.5
19.4
9.3
9.3
10.1
13.9
11.1
9.4
8.2
6.2
15.3
15.1
14.3
13.9
0 10 20 30
New orders
Sales
Production
Export
Sep.22 Jul.22 Jun.22 May.22
0
26.6
27.8
13.6
15.0
15.8
12.7
11.4
11.4
14.5
16.2
16.6
0 10 20 30
Tax arrears
Accounts payable
Accounts receivable
Sep.22 Jul.22 Jun.22 May.22
21.4
25.7
10.6
11.4
10.9
10.2
14.1
13.5
0 10 20 30
Stocks of raw materials
Stocks of finished goods
Sep.22 Jul.22 Jun.22 May.22
14.7
21.1
7.6
9.8
10.7
10.0
15.6
13.7
0 10 20 30
Number of workers
Workers on forced leave
Sep.22 Jul.22 Jun.22 May.22
14. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
13
33.5% in July to 26.5%. And the share of those planning to decrease production changed from 8.7% to 7.7%. The
share of those for whom nothing has changed increased from 57.8% to 65.8%.
Size. The smaller the size of the enterprise, the lower the production expectations. Therefore, large (0.26) and
medium (0.22) enterprises have the highest expectations regarding production changes. The expectation index
for small businesses is 0.14, and the lowest expectation index is for small business (0.02).
Region. Enterprise plans depend on the region of location. The highest expectations indicator is for the Poltava
region (1.00) and Kyiv city (0.78). The Cherkasy region has the lowest indicator of expectations with a single
negative value (-0.04). Indicators of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Ternopil regions are equal to zero.
Sector. Production expectations for three months are optimistic regardless of industry: all indicators have a
positive value. The highest indicators are for machine building (0.36) and the printing industry (0.31). The lowest
values are for metal production, metalworking, and construction materials production (0.04 each) and the
chemical industry (0.07).
Fig. 7. Index of changes in production
SALES
Changes compared to the previous month
In August, the rate of sales decline decreased. The sales index almost doubled, from -0.16 to -0.09. The share of
enterprises whose sales decreased in August compared to July decreased from 30.9% to 24.4%. The share of
those who increased sales decreased less significantly, from 15.3% to 14.8%. The share of enterprises in which
nothing changed during the past month increased from 53.8% to 60.8%.
Size. The lowest sales index is for micro-enterprises: -0.22. Indicators for small and medium-sized enterprises are
-0.14 and -0.07, respectively. The indicator for large enterprises is the highest and is equal to-0.02.
Region. The highest sales index is in the Poltava region - 0.63. The lowest indicator is in the Zakarpattya region (-
0.43).
Sector. The food (0.09) and printing industries (0.06) have the highest sales index. Indicators of all other industries
have a negative value, and the lowest index is for metal production and metalworking (-0.46).
Expected sales changes
Expectations remain positive, but optimism has stopped growing. The index of expected changes in sales
volumes compared to July slightly decreased and is 0.20 (it was 0.23). The share of respondents planning to
increase sales in the next three months decreased from 33.5% to 27.3%. The share of those who expect them to
-0.55
-0.30
-0.12
-0.09
0.12
0.22 0.24
0.20
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22
Production Production exp.
15. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
14
decrease shortened from 10.6% to 8.5%. At the same time, the percentage of respondents who believe nothing
will change has significantly increased, from 55.9% to 64.2%.
Size. Business expectations regarding sales changes increase with enterprise size. Representatives of large
enterprises have the highest expectations, the index of which is 0.27. The indicator for medium-sized enterprises
is 0.23. And for small enterprises, it is equal to 0.13. The lowest indicator is for micro-enterprises – 0.02.
Region. The best expectations were recorded in the Poltava region (1.00) and in Kyiv city (0.87). On the other
hand, in the Cherkasy region, the indicator is the lowest and has the only negative value (-0.04).
Sector. Machine building (0.32) and light industry (0.29) have the highest sales expectations. The expectation
index for metalworking is the lowest at 0.04.
Fig. 8. Index of changes in isales
EXPORT
Changes compared to the previous month
In August compared to July, the rate of export decline slowed down. The value of the export change index
compared to July increased from -0.31 to -0.24. It happened due to a decrease in the share of respondents whose
export volumes decreased (from 34.8% in July to 32.8% in August). At the same time, the share of enterprises
whose export volumes did not change decreased from 59.4% to 58.5%. The share of enterprises that increased
export volumes grew from 5.8% to 8.8%.
Size. The highest value of the index of changes in exports is for medium and large enterprises (-0.20 and -0.23,
respectively). The indicator for small enterprises is -0.29. The lowest is the indicator for micro-enterprises (-0.35).
Region. The highest indicators of the index of export changes are for Cherkasy (0.14) and Odesa (0.12) regions.
The lowest value is for the Sumy region (-0.75).
Sector. The index of changes in exports is the highest for the food industry (-0.07). The lowest indicator is for the
chemical industry (-0.67).
Expected changes in exports
Positive trends regarding the recovery of exports are under threat. The value of the index of expected changes
in exports in August compared to July slightly decreased (from 0.14 in July to 0.12 in August). The share of those
planning to reduce export volumes decreased from 7.8% to 7.5%. The share of respondents expecting an increase
in exports soon decreased from 22.8% to 19.2%. The share of those who do not expect any changes increased
from 69.4% to 73.3%.
-0.48
-0.36
-0.16
-0.09
0.11
0.23 0.23 0.20
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
May.22 Jun.22 Jul. Aug.22 Sep.22
Sales Sales exp.
16. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
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Size. Medium-sized enterprises have the best export expectations (0.17), and micro-enterprises for which a single
negative value is recorded have the worst ones (-0.18). The index values for small and large enterprises are
positive and are equal to 0.09 and 0.12, respectively.
Region. The highest value of the index of expected changes in exports was recorded for enterprises in the Odesa
region (0.46) and Kyiv city (0.40). The worst and only negative are the expectations of business representatives of
the Sumy (-0.67) and Rivne (-0.03) regions.
Sector. Machine building (0.26) and production of light industry (0.21) have the highest index of expected changes
in export value. The lowest and only negative index value is for the production of construction materials (-0.09).
Fig. 9. Index of changes in export
STOCKS OF RAW MATERIALS
Changes compared to the previous month
The rate of raw material stocks reduction decreased, as evidenced by the increase in the changes in raw materials
stock index from -0.29 in July to -0.16 in August. It means that the situation with raw materials, which the
enterprises lack, continued to stabilize. The share of respondents reporting an increase in raw material stocks
over the past month increased from 7.8% to 13.1%. The share of respondents reporting a decrease shortened
from 36.0% to 29.2%. And 57.7% reported nothing had changed compared to last month (56.2%).
Size. The raw material stocks index is roughly in the same range for small (-0.12), large (-0.14), and medium (-
0.16) enterprises. But it is almost twice as low for micro-enterprises (-0.32).
Region. The enterprises of Rivne (0.25), Lviv (0.24), and Odesa (0.23) regions have the highest indicators, and
Zaporizhzhya (-0.73) region and Kyiv city (-0.65) have the lowest ones.
Sector. The highest and only positive indicator is in the food industry (0.09).The indicator for the printing industry
is zero. The lowest indicator was recorded for metalworking (-0.55).
Expected changes in raw material stocks
The expected positive trends in the stabilization of raw material stocks are under threat of termination. For the
next three months, entrepreneurs surveyed expect a sharp decrease in this indicator: the index of expected
changes in raw material stocks has more than halved, from 0.15 to 0.06. The number of respondents who expect
raw material stocks to increase decreased from 26.9% to 16.9%, while the share of those who believe that raw
material stocks will decrease boosted from 12.5% to 13.5%. The share of those who believe the situation will not
change has increased from 60.6% to 69.6%.
-0.42
-0.48
-0.31
-0.24
0.07
0.11
0.14 0.12
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22
Export Export exp.
17. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
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Size. The index of expected changes in raw material stocks is the highest for large enterprises (0.13). The value
for medium-sized enterprises is 0.07, and for small ones - 0.03. The lowest is the value for micro-enterprises (-
0.14).
Region. The highest index of expected changes in raw material stocks is for the Poltava region and amounts to
0.88. The lowest value of the index is for Kyiv city (-0.32) and the Cherkasy region (-0.29).
Sector. Metalworking (0.15) and the food industry (0.09) have the highest expectations for changes in raw
material stocks. The lowest indicators are for the construction materials production materials (-0.24) and the
woodworking industry (-0.11).
Fig. 10. Indices of change in stocks of raw materials
STOCKS OF FINISHED GOODS
Changes compared to the previous month
The dynamics of the finished goods stocks index show both the unstable demand for the enterprises' products
and the lack of businesses' clear plans. After a sharp decrease in July and August, the index of changes in finished
goods stocks increased significantly and is equal to -0.13 (it was -0.29). The share of respondents who reported a
decrease in stocks of finished goods decreased from 35.3% to 23.6%. And the share of respondents who reported
an increase in stocks increased from 8.5% to 11.1%. The share of respondents who felt no change increased from
56.2% to 65.3%.
Size. Depending on the enterprise size, the index value almost does not differ for medium (-0.15) and large (-0.17)
enterprises. The indicator for small enterprises is zero. The indicator for micro-enterprises (-0.25) is the lowest.
Region. Among the businesses of different regions, the largest decrease in stocks is observed in Zaporizhzhya (-
0.67) and Poltava (-0.63) regions and the highest value of the index is for the Rivne region (0.19).
Sector. The indicator of the food industry is -0.03. The lowest value is for metalworking - -0.33.
Expected stocks of finished goods
In contrast to the trend of the changes that have taken place, the trend in the expected changes does not have
such a high range of fluctuations and indicates a decrease in finished goods stocks. The index of expected
changes in stocks of finished goods decreased slightly, from -0.09 to -0.11. The share of respondents who believe
that stocks of finished goods will decrease in the next three months has reduced from 25.6% to 21.0%. At the
same time, the share of those who expect them to increase has halved, from 16.1% to 8.4%. The percentage of
those who believe nothing will change has significantly increased, from 58.3% to 70.6%.
-0.62
-0.41
-0.29
-0.16
0.01 0.00
0.15
0.06
-0.70
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22
Stocks of raw materials Stocks of raw materials exp.
18. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
17
Size. The value of the indicator is approximately the same for medium (-0.09), small (-0.10), and large (-0.13)
enterprises. At the same time, micro-enterprises have significantly better expectations (-0.32).
Region. The highest indicator of expectations is for Sumy (0.13) and Ternopil (0.12) regions. The values for the
Poltava region (-0.88) and Kyiv city (-0.62) is the lowest.
Sector. The value of the index for the food industry is -0.11. The lowest indicators are for machine building (-0.32),
the printing industry (-0.29), and metalworking (-0.26).
Fig. 11. Indices of changes in stocks of finished goods
NEW ORDERS
Changes compared to the previous month
The dynamics of new orders stabilized. The new orders index in August compared to July increased significantly,
from -0.19 to -0.02, due to a decrease in the share of respondents who reported a reduction in the number of
new orders from 33.8% in July to 21.2% in August. The percentage of those with an increase in orders, however,
changed only slightly, increasing from 17.0% to 17.6%. The share of those who felt no changes increased from
49.2% to 61.2%.
Size. The highest and only positive value was recorded for large enterprises (0.06). It is -0.01 for medium-sized
enterprises and -0.08 for small ones. Micro-enterprises have the worst indicators in terms of new orders (-0.23).
Region. Among the different regions, new orders decreased the most in Zakarpattya (-0.50) region; new orders
increased the most in Poltava (0.63) region.
Sector. The situation with new orders in the previous month was the best for the food industry (0.21 and the only
positive indicator). The chemical industry (-0.50) and metalworking (-0.41) have the lowest indicators.
Expected changes to new orders
The trend towards an increase in the number of new orders has stopped. The value of the index of expected
changes in new orders decreased slightly, from 0.25 to 0.23, although it remains positive. The share of those
expecting an increase in new orders decreased from 34.9% to 30.0%. The share of respondents who believe the
number of orders will decrease also reduced, from 9.4% to 8.9%. And 61.0% of respondents in August compared
to 55.7% in July do not expect any changes in the next three months.
Size. The indicator of expectations is the highest for large (0.32) and medium (0.23) enterprises. At the same time,
the figures for small (0.14) and micro-enterprises (0.06) are significantly lower.
-0.33
-0.17
-0.29
-0.13
-0.08
-0.12
-0.09
-0.35
-0.30
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22
Stocks of finished goods Stocks of finished goods exp.
19. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
18
Region. In the Poltava region (0.88) and Kyiv (0.76), businesses expect an increase in new orders to a greater
extent than in other regions. At the same time, the indicators of the Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions are the
lowest and equal to zero.
Sector. The food industry (0.29), machine building (0.27), and the production of textiles, clothing, and footwear
(0.24) have the best expectations for new orders. The lowest and only negative value is the indicator of the
chemical industry sector (-0.07).
Fig. 12. Indices of changes in new orders
ACCOUNT RECEIVABLES
Changes compared to the previous month
The situation with debts has not changed. The account receivables index value remained unchanged and is 0.05.
At the same time, the share of respondents who reported an increase in receivables decreased from 18.2% to
14.7%,as did the share of those for whom itdecreased, from 13.7% to 11.0%. The share of those for whom nothing
has changed over the past month increased from 68.2% to 74.2%.
Size. The highest indicator of the account receivables is for large enterprises (0.07). For small and medium-sized
enterprises, this indicator does not differ and is 0.05. At the same time, this indicator is the lowest for micro-
enterprises (-0.15).
Region. The largest increase in account receivables recorded in the city of Kyiv (0.55) and the Cherkasy region
(0.43). Sumy region has the lowest rate (-0.71).
Sector. The woodworking industry shows the highest value of the index (0.27). The lowest is the index of
metalworking - -0.21.
Expected changes in account receivables
In three months, the rate of account receivables reduction is expected to slow down. The index of expected
changes in accounts receivables increased from -0.16 to -0.13. 2.4% of respondents expect this indicator to
increase (it was 4.5%). And the share of those who expect it to decrease rose from 16.6% to 15.3%. The share of
those who believe nothing will change increased from 75.2% to 82.3%.
Size. When distributed by size, the indicators are approximately in the same range, although middle-sized
enterprises (-0.11) have a somewhat worse index value. The indicator for small enterprises is -0.13, large - -0.14.
The indicator for microenterprises is -0.15.
-0.52
-0.30
-0.19
-0.02
0.10
0.19
0.25 0.23
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22
New orders New orders exp.
20. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
19
Region. Cherkasy (0.07) and Zaporizhzhya (0.05) regions show the highest value. The Sumy region has the lowest
value of the indicator (-0.90).
Sector. The highest indicator of expectations for the debt increase is for the woodworking industry and is equal
to -0.06. The value for metalworking is the lowest (-0.28).
Fig. 13. Indices of changes in account receivables
ACCOUNT PAYABLES
Changes compared to the previous month
In August, the situation with accounts payable did not change and has not caused concerns. The account
payables index compared to July did not change and is equal to 0.00. The share of respondents who reported an
increase in payables reduced from 15.3% to 10.3%, as well as the one for whom it decreased, from 14.8% to
11.3%. And the share of those for whom nothing has changed over the past month increased from 69.9% to 78.4%.
Size. The highest and only positive is the index of changes in account payables for large (0.04) enterprises. The
value for medium-sized enterprises is -0.01, and for small ones - -0.04. The indicator for micro-enterprises is the
lowest and amounts to -0.06.
Region. Accounts payable is worst in Kyiv (0.37) and lowest in the Sumy region (-1.00).
Sector. The food industry has the highest indicators (0.01), while metalworking has the lowest one (-0.22).
Expected changes in account payables
A slight slowdown in the rate of accounts payables reduction is expected. The index of expected changes in
account payables increased from -0.19 to -0.13. The share of those who expect a further decrease in accounts
payable decreased from 21.2% to 14.6%, while the share of those who expect an increase in accounts payable is
only 1.9% (2.8% in July). The share of respondents who believe nothing will change has increased from 75.9% to
83.5%.
Size. For micro, medium, and large enterprises, the indicator of expected changes in account payables does not
differ and is -0.12. At the same time, the indicator of small enterprises is somewhat worse and is equal to -0.14.
0.15
0.03
0.05 0.05
0.00
-0.03
-0.16
-0.13
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22
Accounts receivable Accounts receivable exp.
21. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
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Region. Indicators of expectations for account payables are the highest for Zaporizhzhya (0.09) and Cherkasy
(0.04) regions and the lowest for the Sumy region (-0.92).
Sector. Among industries, the indicator for the woodworking industry is zero. The value for the chemical industry
is the lowest and amounts to -0.38.
Fig. 14. Index of changes in account payables
TAX ARREARS
Changes compared to the previous month
The tax arrears rate reduction has slowed down. The tax arrears index in August compared to July increased from
-0.14 to -0.06. The share of enterprises that reported a decrease in tax arrears for the past month decreased from
15.3% to 9.7%. At the same time, 2,1% of respondents indicated an increase in tax arrears (it was 2.0%). The share
of those who believe no changes took place has increased from 82.7% to 88.2%.
Size. Tax arrears indicators are higher and do not differ too much for medium (-0.05) and large (-0.03) enterprises.
At the same time, the indicators are better and approximately the same for small (-0.11) and micro (-0.15)
enterprises.
Region. Tax arrears increased the most for enterprises in the Chernivtsi region (0.20) and Kyiv (0.10) and
decreased the most for businesses in the Sumy region (-0.92).
Sector. The highest value is the indicator of tax arrears for the production of light industry, and the food industry
(-0.03 each). The value for machine building is -0.24.
Expected changes in tax arrears
Expectations indicate a further slowdown in the rate of tax arrears reduction. The index of expected changes in
tax arrears also increased from -0.18 to -0.09. The share of those predicting a decrease in tax debt decreased from
18.5% to 10.2%, while only 0.8% expected it to increase (it was 1.5%). The share of those who do not expect
changes increased from 75.8% to 80.0%.
Size. The indicator of expectations does not differ too much for large (-0.07) and medium (-0.08) enterprises. The
indicator for small enterprises is -0.11, while the value for micro-enterprises is the lowest (-0.15).
Region. The indicator of expectations for the Ternopil region has the highest positive value and is equal to 0.06.
And the lowest values are for the Sumy region (-0.86).
0.10
0.01
0.00 0.00
0.00
-0.06
-0.19
-0.13
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22
Accounts payable Accounts payable exp.
22. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
21
Sector. The highest indicator for tax arrears expectations is for the woodworking industry and is equal to zero. For
other industries, the value is negative, but the lowest is for machine building (-0.26).
Fig. 15. Index of changes in tax arrears
NUMBER OF WORKERS
Changes compared to the previous month
The rate of employment reduction has slowed down. The index of the number of workers continues its upward
trend and increased in August compared to July from -0.16 to -0.09. The share of respondents reporting a decrease
in the number of employees involved in all enterprise operations decreased from 22.9% to 13.4%. At the same
time, the share of those who indicated their increase halved, from 8.9% to 4.3%. And the share of those for whom
nothing has changed has significantly increased, from 68.1% to 82.3%.
Size. This indicator is the highest for small enterprises (-0.04). The value is almost the same for medium-sized and
large enterprises and amounts to -0.08 and -0.09, respectively. The indicator for micro-enterprises is the worst
and is equal to -0.25.
Region. The highest indicator is for Kyiv, Odesa, and Vinnytsya regions (0.04 each) and for the Rivne region (0.03).
The lowest value is for the Dnipropetrovsk region (-0.41).
Sector. The indicator of changes in the number of workers in the printing industry is the largest and is equal to
zero. The indicators for all other sectors have a negative value; the lowest value is in the chemical industry (-0.37).
Expected changes in the number of workers
Employment expectations have become more cautious. In the next three months, entrepreneurs and business
managers expect a slowdown in employment rate growth (correlated with production expectations, see
Production expectations): the index of expected changes in the number of workers decreased from 0.11 to 0.04.
The percentage of entrepreneurs surveyed who believe the number of employees will increase shortened from
15.6% to 9.0%. The share of those who expect a decrease in the number of workers reduced less significantly,
from 5.3% to 4.6%. The share of those who believe that nothing will change has increased from 79.1% to 86.3%.
Size. The indicators for small and medium-sized enterprises differ only slightly and are 0.01 and 0.02, respectively.
The indicator for large enterprises is 0.09; the value for micro-enterprises is the largest and is 0.11.
Region. The highest indicator of expectations is for Sumy (0.27) and Chernihiv (0.19) regions. It is the lowest for
the Zhytomyr region (-0.11).
-0.09
-0.14
-0.06
-0.10
-0.18
-0.09
-0.20
-0.18
-0.16
-0.14
-0.12
-0.10
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22
Tax arrears Tax arrears ex.
23. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
22
Sector. The highest is the index of expectations for the production of light industry, and the woodworking industry
(0.11 each). The indicator for the printing industry and construction materials production is the lowest and is equal
to zero.
Fig. 16. Index of changes in the number of workers
WORKERS ON FORCED LEAVE
Changes compared to the previous month
Fewer companies sent workers on forced leave in August. The number of workers on forced leave index
decreased from 0.06 to 0.01. The share of business representatives who reported an increase in the number of
workers on forced leave decreased from 15.8% to 6.1%. At the same time, the share of those who indicated their
decrease almost halved, from 11.6% to 6.3%. The share of those for whom the situation has not changed over the
past month has increased from 72.8% to 87.7%.
Size. For small and medium-sized enterprises, the indicator is negative and amounts to -0.02 and -0.01,
respectively. At the same time, the value for micro-enterprises is the highest and is 0.05. The value for large
enterprises is the highest (0.02).
Region. Among the various regions, the deterioration of the indicator is observed to the greatest extent in
Dnipropetrovsk (0.21) region. And the decrease in the number of workers on forced leave is most often reported
in the Khmelnytskiy region (-0.25), Sumy region, and Kyiv city (by -0.17).
Sector. Construction materials production has the worst indicators regarding the number of workers on forced
leave – 0.26. The lowest indicator is the value for the printing industry -0.06.
Expected change in the number of workers on forced leave
Enterprises more often plan not to recall personnel who are already on forced leave to work and send personnel
on forced vacations. The index of expected changes in the number of workers on forced leave significantly
worsened, increasing from -0.14 to -0.03. It was due to a significant decrease in the share of those who believe
that the number of such workers at their company will reduce (from 18.2% to 7.4%). The share of those
enterprises where an increase in the number of workers on forced vacations is expected has slightly increased
(from 3.5% to 4.1%). At the same time, the share of those who believe there will be no changes has increased
from 78.2% to 88.6%.
-0.54
-0.30
-0.16
-0.09
0.01
0.03
0.11
0.04
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22
Number of workers Number of workers exp.
24. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
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Size. Large enterprises expect an increase in the number of workers on forced leave the most. Their index amounts
to zero. The indicator for small and medium-sized enterprises is the same: -0.04. The indicator for micro-
enterprises is -0.08.
Region. The lowest indicators are in the city of Kyiv (-0.33) and Poltava and Khmelnytskyy regions (-0.25 each),
while the indicator for the Odesa region is the highest and is equal to 0.12.
Sector. The highest indicator of expectations in the number of workers on forced leave is in the chemical industry
and is equal to 0.14. The indicator for the woodworking industry and machine building is the lowest and amounts
to -0.13.
Fig. 37. Indices of changes in the number of workers on forced leave
SKILLED AND UNSKILLED WORKERS
Problems in finding workers with the required skills decreased in August. It indicates either a decrease in the
demand for labor on the part of enterprises or an increase in the supply of labor against the background of low
economic activity. The skilled workers index has a positive value, which decreased from 0.18 to 0.06. The unskilled
workers index, where the value is negative and changed only slightly, decreased from -0.06 to -0.07.
Fig. 18. Indices of change in skilled and unskilled workers
0.35
0.05 0.06
0.01
-0.01
-0.22
-0.14
-0.03
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22
Workers on forced leave Workers on forced leave exp.
0.24
0.18
0.06
-0.01
-0.06 -0.07
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22
Skilled workers Unskilled workers
25. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
24
The share of enterprise managers who indicated it is more difficult to find skilled workers decreased from 23.3%
to 14.9%. The share of those who find it more difficult to find unskilled workers decreased from 11.7% to 6.1%.
At the same time, the percentage of those who find it easier to find skilled workers increased from 5.1% to 8.2%,
and the share of those who find it easier to find unskilled workers decreased from 18.1% to 13.4%. The share of
those who do not feel any changes in the search for skilled workers increased from 71.6% to 76.9%. And for
unskilled workers, the percentage increased from 70.2% to 80.5%.
Skilled workers
Size. Depending on the size of the enterprise, skilled workers are harder to find for micro (0.12) and small (0.10)
enterprises and easier to find for large (0.06) and medium (0.03) enterprises.
Region. It is easier to find skilled workers in the Chernihiv region (-0.67) and the most difficult in the Poltava region
(0.75).
Sector. Production of light industry, where the indicator is zero, has less difficulty finding qualified workers. The
machine building has the most difficulties (0.33).
Unskilled workers
Size. Unskilled workers are easier to find for micro (-0.08) and medium (-0.10) enterprises. But it is more difficult
for large (-0.04) and small (-0.06) enterprises.
Region. It is easiest to find unskilled workers in Sumy (-0.65) and Chernihiv (-0.50) regions. Poltava (0.38) and
Chernivtsi (0.22) regions face the most difficulties finding unskilled workers.
Sector. The worst indicators in finding unskilled workers are for the food industry (0.09), while the chemical
industry has the best indicator (-0.25).
26. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
25
SPECIAL PART OF THE SURVEY
THE IMPACT OF WAR ON ENTERPRISES
Challenges for businesses in wartime
In August, as in July, economic and financial problems remain the main ones for the enterprises surveyed. As in
the previous month, rising prices for raw materials or supplies are at the top of the ranking of obstacles: this
problem was reported by 58% of the managers of the surveyed enterprises. The share of businesses reporting this
issue is down slightly from its peak of 62% in July 2022.
Fig. 4. The most important problems for the surveyed businesses
58%
46%
32%
31%
28%
26%
13%
13%
9%
6%
5%
5%
2%
62%
47%
28%
36%
15%
27%
36%
34%
15%
11%
5%
11%
2%
57%
51%
35%
43%
30%
74%
34%
25%
13%
12%
3%
55%
44%
36%
43%
34%
54%
39%
30%
7%
12%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Rising prices for raw materials/goods
Difficulties with transportation of raw materials/goods
through the territory of Ukraine
Lack of working capital
Decrease in demand for products/services
Government regulation of the exchange rate
It is dangerous to work
Lack of fuel
Lack of personnel due to conscription and/or migration
Prohibition of import of raw materials/semi-finished
products /goods
Damage to property/goods as a result of hostilities
Corruption
Interruptions of electricity, water or heat supply
There were no problems
Aug.22 Jul.22 Jun.22 May.22
27. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
26
Difficulties transporting raw materials or finished goods throughout Ukraine (46%) came in second place in the
rating of obstacles for business. The importance of this problem has not changed compared to July: it also was
ranked second among business obstacles and cited by 47% of respondents.
Lack of working capital became the third most common obstacle for business, and the decrease in demand for
enterprises’ products or services became the fourth one. Slightly more than 30% of enterprises surveyed inAugust
2022 reported both obstacles. However, while the problem of the falling demand has become somewhat less
acute compared to the previous month (the share of the businesses that reported it decreased from 36% in July
to 31% in August), the lack of working capital, on the contrary, is felt by businesses more than a month ago. In
July, 28% of enterprises lacked working capital, while in August, already 32%.
The fifth main obstacle for businesses in August 2022 was the state regulation of the currency exchange rate. It
was reported by 28% of enterprises, which is significantly more than 15% in July 2022. Since the previous survey,
the National Bank of Ukraine has adjusted the official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar by 25%, making
it closer to the exchange rate on the cash market. In turn, the key foreign currencies exchange rate on the cash
market also increased in July-August. It affected the importance of the exchange rate issue for Ukrainian
businesses.
After a gradual decrease, the importance of the issue of business safety stabilized in August 2022. Thus, 26% of
enterprises say it is dangerous to work. It is almost equal to the corresponding share in July 2022: 27%. In May
2022 – in the first wave of this survey – 34% of respondents reported this problem.
We should note the sharp decrease in the importance of two problems: lack of fuel and lack of labor – which
shared the seventh place in the ranking of obstacles to business in the August survey. 13% of the surveyed
businesses reported these two problems, which is significantly less than in the three previous waves of the survey.
The decrease in the importance of the lack of fuel problem can be explained by the improvement in the availability
of fuel in Ukraine. And the decrease in the relevance of the personnel problem can be caused by both positive
and negative factors. An increase in the supply of labor with the required skills on the labor market, for example,
due to the return of a part of forced refugees and displaced persons, and the ability of the enterprises to find the
necessary personnel due to the stabilization of the labor market could be the positive factors. Possible negative
reasons are the decrease in business demand for new labor due to the lack of plans for further recovery, expansion
or growth, or even due to layoffs.
In August 2022, less than 10% of enterprises reported such problems as the ban on raw materials import, damage
to property or goods due to military actions, corruption, and interruptions in electricity, water, or heat supply. In
addition, the respondents often added their own versions of the most challenging problems faced by their
businesses (6%). Specifically, they mentioned low purchasing power of the residents of Ukraine, the breakdown
of supply chains, the increase in the price of fuel, energy sources, and rent of premises, and problems with VAT
refunds for exporters as well as with land taxes for temporarily occupied territories. Only 2% of enterprises said
that they did not face any challenges.
Challenges for businesses by size. Certain obstacles have a greater or lesser impact on businesses of different
sizes. From this point of view, it is worth highlighting the problem of transporting raw materials or finished goods
throughout Ukraine, which becomes increasingly important for business as its size increases. If it is reported by
23% of respondents among representatives of micro-enterprises. For small businesses, this percentage increases
to 45%, for medium-sized ones, to 49%, and for large ones, already to 55%.
On the other hand, the relevance of the problem of low demand for enterprises’ products or services rises with
the decrease in the size of the business. Twice as many respondents (44%) indicated this problem among micro-
businesses than among large ones (21%). In addition, micro-enterprises, more often than larger ones, report the
problem of rising prices for raw materials or supplies (67%). And large enterprises differ from the rest by the
highest share of those hindered by state regulation of the exchange rate (36%).
28. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
27
Challenges for businesses by sector. Some differences in the answers to this question can be seen among
enterprises in different industries, as well as those who work in the service sector1
. The increase in prices for raw
materials or supplies is most acutely felt by businesses in the printing (where 71% of respondents report this) and
chemical (70%) industries, metal production, metalworking, and construction materials production (68% of
respondents in each of them). Also, the chemical industry is characterized by the largest share of the enterprises
facing difficulties transporting raw materials or goods throughout Ukraine compared to other industries (75%).
On the other hand, the problem of lack of working capital is more important for the service sector (42%) than for
enterprises in various industries. The printing industry reports more often than other industries the decrease in
demand for its products (59%), and the chemical and woodworking industries report the problems with the state
regulation of the exchange rate most often (45% and 42% of respondents, respectively).
Challenges for businesses by region. Certain differences in the negative impact of obstacles are also observed for
businesses in different regions where this survey was conducted2
. Businesses in Zhytomyr, Sumy, and
Dnipropetrovsk regions (90% or more of respondents), as well as Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Lviv regions (more
than 80% of enterprises) report the rise in prices for raw materials and supplies most often.
Difficulties transporting raw materials or finished goods throughout Ukraine are especially acute in the Cherkasy
region: they are one of the main problems for 93% of local businesses. Also, more than 70% of respondents in the
Vinnytsya, Zaporizhzhya, and Kirovohrad regions and the city of Kyiv report this problem.
The highest share of the enterprises that reported the lack of working capital was recorded in the Ternopil region
(94%). And the highest share of those that reported a decrease in demand for their products or services was
recorded in the Zhytomyr region (75%).
In addition, despite the decrease in the relevance of these obstacles in Ukraine in general, 60% of businesses in
the Chernivtsi region and 45% in the Khmelnytskiy region report a lack of fuel. And 50% of respondents in the
Vinnytsya and Volyn regions report a lack of personnel. These are the highest shares compared to other regions.
The war impact on production volume
In August, about 3% of enterprises surveyed reported that they stopped their activities during the war (at the
level of July).3
This share is several times lower compared to May and June (10% and 8%, respectively). Also, the
share of enterprises operating at less than 25% of the pre-war production volumes continues to decrease - only
7% in August (12% in July, 14% in June, and 17% in May).
On the one hand, this may indicate the acceleration of the production recovery among those enterprises that
completely or almost completely stopped work. On the other hand, companies that have completely stopped
production or are experiencing significant problems are less willing to be surveyed. In contrast, the share of
enterprises that work at 100% compared to pre-war volumes also continues to decrease. In August, this indicator
was only 8%, while in July it was 10%. For comparison, in May, the share of such enterprises was twice as large
(15%). However, the share of enterprises operating at almost full production capacity remains high - 36% (at the
level of July). For comparison, this indicator was 17% in May and 30% in June. Also, the share of enterprises
operating at 50-74% increased by one and a half times compared to pre-war volumes - from 23% in July to 33% in
August. It also indicates a rapid process of recovery of production among enterprises.
1
The size of the subsample in the agriculture and trade sectors is too small for statistical comparison.
2
Regions, where no enterprises were surveyed, are not included in the comparison, and Mykolayiv and Poltava regions,
where the number of respondents was insufficient for statistical comparison. For more details, see the "Sample" section.
3
A significant expansion of the sample compared to the previous month could also have a minor impact on the results.
29. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
28
Fig. 5. The impact of war on the enterprises' work (% of respondents)
Results for businesses by size. Since the beginning of the war, representatives of micro-businesses continue to
feel the most negative impact on production. Thus, 16% of businesses did not operate in August among micro-
enterprises. It is twice as high as in July (8%) but at the level of June (16%). So, micro-enterprises can be more
sensitive to changes in the business environment. At the same time, among larger enterprises, the share of non-
working ones remains low. Among large enterprises, there are no respondents, who do not work at all. The survey
results confirm that the size of the enterprise affects its ability to maintain and restore production in war
conditions. In August, 10% of large and 9% of medium-sized businesses, but only 2% of micro-enterprises,
maintained production at 100% or more. For several months already, the lowest corresponding indicator has been
observed among micro-businesses, which confirms the greater impact of the war on small business entities.
Fig. 6. The share of enterprises that stopped operating compared to pre-war period (by enterprise size, %)
10.3%
16.9%
15.6%
25.6%
16.6%
15.0%
8.2%
13.7%
17.3%
18.7%
29.9%
12.1%
3.5%
11.7%
15.6%
22.8%
36.4%
10.0%
2.7%
6.6%
14.1%
32.8%
35.9%
7.9%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%
0% capacity utilzation
up to 25%
25%-49%
50%-74%
75%-99%
100% capacity utilization
Aug.22 Jul.22 Jun.22 May.22
18%
10% 10%
6%
16%
3%
9%
1%
8%
2%
1% 1%
16%
3%
0% 0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Micro Small Medium Large
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22
30. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
29
Results for businesses by industry4
. According to the results of August, the different effects of the war on
individual industrial sectors are confirmed. In August, 13% of metallurgy and metalworking enterprises (5% in July)
and 7% of construction materials producers (16% in July) did not operate. These industries also have the highest
share of enterprises where the production volume corresponds to less than 25% of the pre-war volume (20% in
the production of building materials and 16% in metallurgy and metalworking), which is reminiscent of the
situation in July. Food industry enterprises continue to demonstrate the best production results, as 17% of
respondents among them are working at a hundred percent or more compared to the pre-war period (24% in
August). In addition, 44% of representatives of the food industry work at 75% - 99% compared to the pre-war
period. Thus, in August, 61% of the food industry representatives are working almost at full capacity or at full
capacity (58% in July). The corresponding result is also high in the printing industry (53% in August vs. 57% in July)
and light industry (47% in August vs. 43% in July). Thus, the industries providing the basic needs for the population
continue to be the best at overcoming the difficulties of the war.
Fig. 7. The share of industrial enterprises operating at almost full and full capacity (75-99%, 100% and more) compared to the pre-war
period in August 2022, % of respondents by industry
Results by region5
. In the regional context, the regularities of the previous wave of the survey are preserved. The
business of the western regions of Ukraine preserved production best. There are no enterprises in the West
Ukraine that have completely stopped operating. Also, business in the western regions often works at 100% or
more compared to the pre-war period. In August, enterprises in Chernivtsi (33%), Volyn (28%), and Ternopil (24%)
regions had the highest capacity. However, high results were also recorded in Odesa (15%) and Zhytomyr (10%)
4
The analysis of the results is not available to the trade sector due to the insufficient size of the sub-sample.
5
In the Mykolayiv and Poltava regions, the subsample size is insufficient for the analysis.
11%
32%
35%
26%
33%
51%
43%
57%
58%
13%
25%
25%
26%
33%
40%
47%
53%
61%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Construction materials
Chemical industry
Woodprocessing
Metalworking
Machine building
Other productions
Light industry
Printing industry
Food industry
Aug.22 Jul.22
31. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
30
regions. At the same time, there are still no enterprises operating at full capacity in several regions: Ivano-
Frankivsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya, Sumy, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, and Chernihiv regions. It should be
noted that in the Ivano-Frankivsk region, all respondents are working almost at full capacity (75% - 99% compared
to the pre-war period). Thus, we see the negative impact of the war on businesses in all regions, which confirms
the impact of the war on logistics, production chains, and major markets throughout the country.
THE WAR IMPACT ON THE ENTERPRISES’ EXPORT ACTIVITIES
In the fourth wave of the survey, 53% of enterprises (among those that were able to answer) are exporters (58%
in July). Among exporters, there is still a high share of enterprises that stopped exporting after February 24 and
were unable to resume it as of August - 20%. This indicator steadily continues to decrease during the four waves
of the study, although the war remains a significant obstacle to foreign economic activity. The share of enterprises
that stopped exporting, but resumed it, is high - 19%. In addition, 61% of respondents claim they have not stopped
exporting. It is the highest indicator for all waves of the study. A high result could also be provided by enterprises
that, after all, temporarily stopped export after the start of the war but very quickly resumed it. We should note
that the share of enterprises that want to start exporting for the first time remains low. In August, only 2% of
respondents reported such plans (1% in July). In May and June, the corresponding figures were 7% and 5%,
respectively. Thus, there remains a low level of business optimism regarding the start of export activities in the
conditions of war and related problems.
Fig. 8. Impact on export activities (% of exporters surveyed)
Results for businesses by size. Due to the war, micro and small businesses have suffered more than medium and
large businesses, and are also slower to recover. Only 13% of large and 19% of medium-sized enterprises stopped
exporting and could not resume it (25% and 20%, respectively, in July). The situation among small enterprises has
improved somewhat, where the results are close to those of larger entities (25% in August versus 28% in July). At
the same time, the situation is critical for micro-business, where every second enterprise was not able to resume
exports (as in July and June). We should note that the situation in August improved compared to July for entities
of all sizes except for micro-enterprises.
44%
40%
48%
61%
9%
20%
26%
19%
47%
40%
27%
20%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
May.22
Jun.22
Jul.22
Aug.22
Continues exporting and never stopped
Stopped exporting after 24.02.2022, but already resumed
Stopped exporting after 24.02.2022, not resumed yet
32. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
31
Fig. 9. Enterprises that stopped exporting but could not recover, by the size of enterprises (% of exporters surveyed)
Results for businesses by industry. In August, 96% of exporters surveyed represent manufacturing, and the
sample of exporters for other sectors is not representative. Therefore, the obtained results primarily reflect the
situation in manufacturing. For example, 20% of manufacturing stopped exporting and were unable to resume it,
and 19% were able to resume exporting after its termination.
Fig. 10. Enterprises that stopped exporting but could not resume it, by industry (% of exporters surveyed)
The data obtained also make it possible to analyze the impact of the war on the export activity of various
industries. In August, the best situation was recorded in the light and woodworking industries, where 71% of
enterprises have not stopped exporting at all. The corresponding indicator in the food industry is also high (67%).
At the same time, the worst situation is in the machine building (only 39% did not stop exports) and the chemical
industry (36%). The obtained results confirm the distribution of the industries of "leaders" and "outsiders" of the
previous wave of the survey. We should note that in some industries, the situation worsened compared to the
previous month. Thus, 43% of chemical industry enterprises stopped exporting and were unable to resume (27%
- the result of July). Also, the share of woodworking enterprises that stopped exporting and could not resume it
increased sharply (from 0% to 24%).
Results by regions6
. The survey results by region do not allow us to conclude clear regional patterns due to the
insufficient size of subsamples in certain regions. However, the available data confirm the significant war impact
6
For certain regions, the results are not available due to the insufficient size of the subsample, which does not allow
concluding clear regional patterns.
65%
51%
33%
62%
43%
35% 37%
50%
28%
20%
25%
56%
25%
19%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Micro Small Medium Large
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22
27% 28%
36%
28%
0%
27%
21%
43%
29%
24%
13%
24%
19%
8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Chemical industry Machine building Metalworking Food industry Woodprocessing
industry
Other
productions
Light industry
Jul.22 Aug.22
33. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
32
on exporters in all regions. For example, 10% of enterprises in Kyiv, 36% in Chernihiv, and 38% in Dnipropetrovsk
regions, where military actions took place, stopped and did not resume exports. At the same time, the
corresponding figure is 21% in Kirovohrad and 27% in the Volyn regions. It confirms that exporters are affected
by war regardless of the military actions presence in the regions. According to the results for August, the best
situation was recorded in Vinnytsya (only 5% stopped and did not resume), Zakarpattya (8%), and Cherkasy
regions (9%).
GOVERNMENT POLICY
Assessment of government policy to support business
In August 2022, positive and neutral assessments of state business support policy stabilized at the level of July,
but there were more negative ones. As in July, the surveyed representatives of enterprises most often evaluate
this policy neutrally: 51% of respondents gave such evaluations; it is almost equal to the corresponding share in
July 2022 (50%). The share of positive assessments also did not change: it amounted to 10% both in July and
August of this year.
However, the frequency of negative assessments of the state business support policy increased: from 22% in July
to 28% in August. On the other hand, the share of respondents who did not answer this question decreased by
12%. This share became the smallest during the entire period of the survey. In its previous waves, respondents
were more often unable to assess the government’s business support policy. For example, in May 2022, there
were 28% of them.
Fig. 11. Assessment of government policy to support business
Assessment of government policy to support business by business size. As the size of enterprises decreases, the
frequency of negative assessments of state business support policies increases, and the share of neutral ones
decreases. Thus, approximately one-fourth of representatives of large and medium-sized enterprises rated this
policy negatively. And among representatives of small and micro-businesses, one-third of respondents gave
negative assessments. At the same time, the share of neutral assessments increases from 31% in micro-businesses
to more than 50% in medium and large ones. The frequency of positive evaluations is approximately the same for
surveyed enterprises of different sizes.
Assessment of government policy to support business by sector. In the service sector, 17% of respondents
assessed state business support positively, which is more than in all other industries7
. The share of positive
assessments reaches such a level only in light industry, where 16% of respondents gave positive evaluations. The
most negative assessments are in the chemical industry (55%) and construction materials production (45%).
Assessment of government policy to support business by region. In August 2022, Kyiv city and the Rivne region
recorded the highest percentages of enterprise representatives who positively assessed state business support
7
The sub-sample size in agriculture and trade is too small for statistical comparison.
19%
42%
11%
28%
16%
39%
23% 22%
10%
50%
22%
18%
10%
51%
28%
12%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Positively Neutrally Negatively Don't know/No answer
May'22 Jun'22 Jul'22 Aug'22
34. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
33
policy: 30% and 28%, respectively. Negative evaluations were most often given by the respondents in the
Zaporizhzhya region, where the corresponding share reached 73%. The businesses of Vinnytsya, Zakarpattya, and
Cherkasy regions are marked by a high share of negative assessments of the state policy on business support,
where about half of the respondents gave such assessments8
.
What will improve the business situation? Expected measures and changes
In August, the representatives of the enterprises surveyed reported what changes and measures they most
expect. In June of this year, when businesseses first answered this question in this format, the most anticipated
event for survey participants was the end of the war.
Fig. 12. Expected measures and changes that, according to the respondents, will improve the situation of their business
75% of surveyed business representatives expect this much more than other events and changes. The de-
occupation of Ukraine's territories is in second place among the desired changes. It is one of the priorities for 44%
of respondents. Stopping hryvnia devaluation against foreign currencies is in the third place: 32% of enterprises
expect this. About a third of respondents (31%) consider it necessary to simplify the legal requirements for
business, and almost the same share (29%), to reduce tax and excise rates.
There have been some changes in business priorities over the past two months. For example, the importance of
increasing fuel supplies has significantly decreased (from 40% in June to 4% in July). It indicates the resolution of
the fuel crisis in May 2022. The need of state orders is also mentioned less often (the share of the respondents
who indicated this decreased from 28 % in June to 9% in July). The respondents mentioned the need to reduce
corruption less often, too: in June 2022, it was one of the main expectations for 23% of respondents, while in
August, for 14%.
8
The comparison does not include regions in which no enterprises were surveyed, as well as the Mykolayiv and Poltava
regions, where the number of respondents was insufficient for statistical comparison. For more details, see the
“Sample” section.
75%
44%
32%
31%
29%
18%
14%
12%
9%
7%
4%
3%
90%
51%
26%
35%
23%
23%
16%
28%
14%
40%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
End of the war
Deoccupation of the territories of Ukraine
Stopping devaluation of Ukrainian hryvnia against foreign
currencies
Simplification of legal requirements for business
Reduction of taxes and excises
Programs of affordable loans for businesses
Reduction of corruption
Simplification of import procedures
Receiving orders from the state
State financing of the war-affected and destroyed businesses
Increase in fuel supplies
Other
Aug.22 Jun.22
35. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
34
Most of the measures listed, which were among the options for answering this question in both June and August
2022, were chosen less often by respondents in August. It is probably because a part of the answers transferred
to the option “stop devaluation of the hryvnia against foreign currencies”, which was added for the first time in
this wave of the survey.
Some respondents added their versions of expected events or changes. There were often requests to reduce costs
for logistics, fuel, and energy carriers. Respondents also expressed other needs, such as receiving VAT refunds,
increased orders, easier border crossing for men, and others.
Expected measures and changes by enterprise size. Ending the war is a top priority for businesses of all sizes. The
shares of business managers who expect it ranges from 64% for a large business to 80% and 81% for small and
micro-businesses, respectively. As the size of the business increases, the share of its representatives who expect
such changes as the de-occupation of Ukraine's territories (from 30% in micro-businesses to 46% in large-scale
ones), the cessation of devaluation of the hryvnia against foreign currencies (from 20% in micro-businesses to
38% in large ones), reduction of taxes and excise duties (from 17% in micro-businesses to 35% in large ones), and
simplification of import procedures (from 5% in micro-businesses to 20% in large ones) increases, too. On the
other hand, micro-businesses expect affordable business loans (23%) and government funding for damaged and
destroyed enterprises (11%) to a greater extent than respondents from larger enterprises.
Expected measures and changes by sector. The end of the war is also the main expected event for the surveyed
businesses from all industries and services9
. The need for the territories de-occupation is considered one of the
main priorities by about half of the respondents in various industries, but it is most often mentioned in the service
sector: 75% of respondents.
Representatives of the chemical (50%) and woodworking (46%) industries expect the stopping of hryvnia
devaluation against foreign currencies the most. More than 40% of respondents in metal production,
metalworking, chemical industry, machine building, and woodworking industry expect simplification of legal
requirements for business. It is more than the other industries represented in this survey.
Production of construction materials and the printing industry are the industries where business managers, more
often than others, report the need for affordable loans for business (32% and 29% of respondents, respectively).
And orders from the state are most awaited in machine building (26% of enterprises).
Expected measures and changes by region. In most regions, 60% or more of the surveyed local businesses named
the end of the war among the events and changes that would help them the most10
. Among them are the Ternopil,
Khmelnytskyy, and Chernihiv regions, where the share of such respondents is 100%, and many others, where this
share is about 90% or more.
Respondents in the Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and Ternopil regions most often emphasize the need to de-occupy
Ukraine's territories: the corresponding shares of the respondents exceed 90%.
Zhytomyr region has the highest share of businesses that expect the end of hryvnia devaluation: 90%. The
enterprises’ managers in Kyiv city (87%), as well as in Zaporizhzhya (60%) and Lviv (58%) regions, are most often
in favor of simplifying legislative requirements for business. In Kyiv city, the majority also support the reduction
of taxes and excise duties (87%).
Businesses in Zakarpattya and Cherkasy regions, more often than in other areas, consider reducing corruption to
be an important measure (43% and 37%, respectively). And business managers in the Sumy region more often
expect state funding for damaged and destroyed businesses from others (44%).
9
The size sub-sample in agriculture and trade is too small for statistical comparison.
10
The comparison does not include regions in which no enterprises were surveyed, as well as Mykolayiv and Poltava
regions, where the number of respondents was insufficient for statistical comparison. For more details, see "Sample"
section.
36. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
35
SURVEY METHODOLOGY
This report presents the results of the fourth Monthly Survey “Ukrainian Business in the Wartime”. A monthly
enterprise survey is conducted using a combination of several data collection methods: self-completion of the
online checklist and telephone interviews of business representatives filling out their responses into an online
check-list.
First, the IER sent out a questionnaire to Ukrainian companies as an online form. Some respondents filled it out
themselves. The IER also conducted a survey through partners in the regions, when the same questions were
asked to business representatives by interviewers, and their answers were added to an online checklist. As a
result, all responses (filled by the respondents themselves and provided to the interviewers) were collected in
one database. After the survey, IER experts monitored and cleaned up the data and analyzed the responses.
In this survey, we continue examining the indicators of the business climate and conditions studied by the IER in
the quarterly surveys of industrial enterprises within the project "Business Survey." It includes such important
business indicators as production and sales, exports, raw materials and supplies stocks, the new orders number,
etc., and business expectations for their chances for the next one-two months short period.
These indices are calculated according to a single methodology. We count responses as +1 when the company
responds that the rate has increased, 0 if it has not changed, and -1 if it has decreased. For example, if out of 100
respondents, 20 indicated an increase in production, 50 respondents its reduction, and 30 said that everything
remained unchanged, the corresponding value of the index will be -0.30. A positive (negative) index value means
that the share of enterprises where production has increased is larger (smaller) than the number of those where
production has decreased.
Such indices help control the dynamics of changes in these indicators, compare them over time and quickly assess
the general direction of changes in business conditions and the situation at the enterprises.
The field phase of the survey lasted from August 5 to 17, 2022.
SAMPLE
A total of 518 enterprises were interviewed in the fourth wave of the survey. They are located in Vinnytsya, Volyn,
Dnipropetrovsk, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhya, Zhytomyr, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolayiv, Odesa,
Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions as well as in Kyiv city. In
each of these regions, from 2 to 50 enterprises were interviewed11
.
The majority of the sample consisted of manufacturing enterprises: 491 enterprises or 95% of the sample. Among
them, the food industry, textile, clothing and footwear industries, and machine building prevail. Twelve
enterprises (2% of the sample) belong to the service sector, 8 (1.5% of the sample) to the agricultural sector, and
7 (1.4% of the sample) to the trade sector.
Among the enterprises surveyed there are companies of various sizes, determined by the number of employees:
micro-enterprises (up to 10 employees inclusive) – 64 or 12% of the sample, small enterprises (from 11 to 50
employees) – 142 or 27% of the sample, medium-sized enterprises (from 51 to 250 employees) – 183 or 35% of
the sample and large enterprises (more than 250 employees) – 129 or 25% of the sample.
11
The survey indicated the region in which the enterprise was located at the time of the survey.
37. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. August 2022
36
APPENDIX 1. Survey results in figures
Sample
Enterprises’ size
Number Share of sample
Micro 64 12%
Small 142 27%
Middle 183 35%
Large 129 25%
Sector
Number Share of sample
Agriculture 8 1,5%
Metal production and metalworking 31 6%
Chemical industry 20 4%
Machine building 39 8%
Woodworking industry 24 5%
Construction materials production 31 6%
Food industry 160 31%
Light industry 45 9%
Printing industry 17 3%
Other industries 124 24%
Trade 7 1,4%
Services 12 2%
Performance indicators of enterprises and business environment
Performance indicators of enterprises and business environment by size, indices of change (August 2022)
Total Micro Small Middle Large
Production -0.09 -0.23 -0.14 -0.03 -0.06
Expected changes in production 0.20 0.02 0.14 0.22 0.26
Sales -0.09 -0.22 -0.14 -0.07 -0.02
Expected sales changes 0.20 0.02 0.13 0.23 0.27
Export -0.24 -0.35 -0.29 -0.20 -0.23
Expected changes in exports 0.12 -0.18 0.09 0.17 0.12
Account receivables 0.05 -0.13 0.05 0.05 0.07
Expected changes in account receivables -0.13 -0.15 -0.13 -0.11 -0.14
Account payables 0.00 -0.06 -0.04 -0.01 0.04
Expected changes in accounts payable -0.13 -0.12 -0.14 -0.12 -0.12
Tax arrears -0.06 -0.12 -0.13 -0.05 -0.03
Expected changes in tax arrears -0.09 -0.15 -0.11 -0.08 -0.07
Stocks of raw materials -0.16 -0.32 -0.12 -0.16 -0.14
Expected changes in stocks of raw material 0.06 -0.14 -0.03 0.07 0.13
Stocks of finished goods -0.13 -0.25 0.00 -0.15 -0.17
Expected changes in stocks of finished goods -0.11 -0.32 -0.10 -0.09 -0.13
New orders -0.02 -0.23 -0.08 -0.01 0.06
Expected changes in new orders 0.23 0.06 0.14 0.23 0.32
Number of workers -0.09 -0.25 -0.04 -0.08 -0.09