англ_звіт.pdf

Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. December 2022
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Project implementation:
Institute for Economic Research and Policy
Consulting
Financial support:
The project is implemented with the financial
support of the European Union
International Renaissance Foundation
Atlas Network
Authors of the report:
Oksana Kuziakiv, Executive Director at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, Project
Manager for the project “Support for the Public Initiative “For Fair and Transparent Customs”
Yevhen Anhel, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting
Anastasia Gulik, Research Fellow at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting
Iryna Fedets, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting
The publication was prepared as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs", funded by the European Union and
co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation, and the ATLAS Network (USA). Its content is the responsibility of
the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting and does not necessarily represent the position of the European
Union, the Renaissance Foundation, or the ATLAS Network.
INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND POLICY CONSULTING
Reytarska 8/5-А, 01054 Kyiv, Ukraine
tel.: +38(044) 278-63-42; +38 (044) 278-63-60; fax: +38(044) 278-63-36
institute@ier.kyiv.ua
www.ier.com.ua
Facebook IER
Facebook “For Fair and Transparent Customs”
Telegram channel “Fair Customs”

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ABOUT THE NEW MONTHLY ENTERPRISES SURVEY “UKRAINIAN BUSINESS IN WARTIME”
Dear ladies and gentlemen, we present you with the eighth issue of the business managers’ monthly survey
“Ukrainian Business in Wartime”.
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime.
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the
Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the
enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and
expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts
for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt,
new orders, employment, etc. We will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business
climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the
business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business
and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements. Where applicable, we will use comparisons with the data from the
quarterly business survey “Business Opinion” that have been conducted since 1998.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war's impact on the production activity of
enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension
in data analysis is used in the issue.
The monthly survey of business managers is a part of a change in the activities of the project “For Fair and
Transparent Customs”, funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance
Foundation, and the ATLAS Network (USA). Monthly trends will be presented in reports such as this one.
Quarterly trends will continue to be published in the “Business Survey: Industry” reports, which have been
published by the IER since July 2002.
We are grateful to the analytical system YouControl (https://youcontrol.com.ua/) for the opportunity to use the
data to form a panel sample.

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Content
PRACTICAL QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS TO HELP YOU READ THIS REPORT .................................................................... 5
MAIN RESULTS ................................................................................................................................................................. 7
INDICATORS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE HALF-YEAR PERIOD ............................................................................... 10
BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT THE ENTERPRISE ................................................................................................................... 10
BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT THE ENTERPRISE COMPARED TO A SIMILAR ........................................................................ 10
PERIOD OF THE LAST YEAR......................................................................................................................................... 10
EXPANSION PLANS FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS......................................................................................................... 11
OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT........................................................................................................................ 12
UNCERTAINTY ............................................................................................................................................................ 12
Half-year expectations........................................................................................................................................... 12
Three-month expectations .................................................................................................................................... 14
ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS............................................................. 14
PRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................. 14
Changes compared to the previous month ........................................................................................................... 14
Expected changes in production............................................................................................................................ 15
SALES.......................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Expected changes in sales...................................................................................................................................... 16
EXPORT....................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Expected changes in export................................................................................................................................... 16
STOCKS OF RAW MATERIALS ..................................................................................................................................... 17
Expected changes in stocks of raw material.......................................................................................................... 17
STOCKS OF FINISHED GOODS..................................................................................................................................... 18
Expected changes in stocks of finished goods....................................................................................................... 19
NEW ORDERS ............................................................................................................................................................. 19
Expected changes in new orders ........................................................................................................................... 20
Availability of orders.............................................................................................................................................. 20
ACCOUNT RECEIVABLES............................................................................................................................................. 22
Expected changes in account receivables.............................................................................................................. 22

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ACCOUNT PAYABLES.................................................................................................................................................. 23
Expected changes in account payables.................................................................................................................. 23
TAX ARREARS ............................................................................................................................................................. 24
Expected changes in tax arrears ............................................................................................................................ 24
NUMBER OF WORKERS.............................................................................................................................................. 25
Expected changes in the number of workers ........................................................................................................ 25
WORKERS ON FORCED LEAVE.................................................................................................................................... 25
Expected change in the number of workers on forced leave................................................................................ 26
SKILLED AND UNSKILLED WORKERS........................................................................................................................... 27
Skilled workers....................................................................................................................................................... 27
Unskilled workers................................................................................................................................................... 27
Challenges for businesses in wartime........................................................................................................................ 28
The war impact on capacity/production volumes................................................................................................. 30
IMPACT OF POWER CUTS........................................................................................................................................... 33
Power outage: ways to solve the problem ................................................................................................................ 35
THE WAR IMPACT ON THE ENTERPRISES’ EXPORT ACTIVITIES.................................................................................. 36
GOVERNMENT POLICY ............................................................................................................................................... 39
Assessment of government policy to support business ........................................................................................ 39
SURVEY METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................................................ 41
SAMPLE .......................................................................................................................................................................... 41
APPENDIX 1. Survey results in figures............................................................................................................................ 42

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PRACTICAL QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS TO HELP YOU READ THIS REPORT
Who do we survey? This survey uses a panel sample; that means we survey the same business entities. Building
such a sample takes time. During the eighth wave of the survey, the answers of 551 respondents were received.
Fig. 1. Number of the surveyed enterprises
They include mainly industrial enterprises(95%) located in 21 of the 27 regions of Ukraine: Vinnytsya, Volyn,
Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhya, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava,
Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi, Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions and in the Kyiv city.
Enterprises of all sizes in terms of the number of workers are represented among the respondents.
Fig. 2. Number of enterprises surveyed by size
How do we collect data? Data was collected using a combination of several data collection methods: self-
completion of the online checklist and telephone interviews of business representatives filling out their
responses into an online check-list.
How are our indices calculated? All indices are calculated according to a single methodology. We count
responses as +1 when the company responds that the rate has increased, 0 if it has not changed, and -1 if it has
decreased. For example, if out of 100 respondents, 20 indicated an increase in production, 50 respondents
reported its reduction, and 30 said that everything remained unchanged, the corresponding value of the index
will be -0.30. A positive (negative) index value means that the share of enterprises where production has
increased is larger (smaller) than the number of those where production has decreased. Each index bigger than
+0.05 or less than -0.05 is statistically significant, and different from zero with a 5% error probability.
How to "read" our indicators? Our indicators are called "indices," which is a synonym of the term "balance
index" or "balance indicator." All indices are the difference between the shares of respondents who reported a
decrease and those who reported an increase in the indicator. The bigger the index value, the bigger the rate of
indicator growth; the smaller the index value, the bigger the rate of indicator decline.
For most indicators, a higher value of the index means a positive trend, except for indicators of debts, the
number of workers on forced leave, and difficulties in finding personnel. Everything is the opposite here. The
larger the index, the greater the rate of debt growth or the increase in the number of people on forced leave
and hardships (this is bad), the smaller the index, the greater the rate of debt reduction, the decrease in the
number of people on forced leave or hardships (this is good).

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When the survey was conducted? The field stage of the eighth wave lasted from December 13 to December 26,
2022. The enterprises' managers compared the results of work in December 2022 with November 2022,
assessed the state of the indicators at the time of the survey (December 2022), and gave forecasts for the next
two, three, or six months, depending on the question. For some questions (where it was indicated), the results
of the work were compared to ones in the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022). Respondents gave
forecasts for the next three months of work.

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MAIN RESULTS
The business continues to feel the impact of Russian missile terror but is adapting to work in such conditions.
The trend of worsening half-yearly expectations of the overall economic situation and the situation at the
enterprise level has stopped. Production expectations have improved in the short term. The uncertainty level in
the six- and three-month is gradually decreasing, and after increasing in November, it remained unchanged in
December. Short-term export expectations have increased significantly. However, enterprises have run out of
opportunities to actively resume export activities, as the share of enterprises that continued or resumed
exporting after February 24 stopped growing four months ago. Demand and supply indicators in the labor
market are balanced. With current production volumes, enterprises do not experience significant problems with
finding personnel. Enterprise plans for the next two years remain optimistic. Power, water, and heat
interruptions are the number one problem. Businesses temporarily suspended their work due to power cuts,
but most of the surveyed businesses informed that they had provided themselves with independent power
sources. The average time expenditure due to power cuts were 21% of working hours in November.
Assessments of the state economic policy are neutral.
OVERALL INDICATORS OF BUSINESS CLIMATE AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
• Business activity at enterprises remain difficult, as evidenced by the negative value of the index, but
there are trends toward improvement, as evidenced by the value of the CURRENT BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX,
which in December compared to November increased from -0.33 to -0.24.
• The enterprises' expectations regarding business activity changes in the six-month also significantly
improved; the value of the corresponding index increased from -0.18 to 0.01, changing the sign from
negative to positive.
• In December, compared to November, the value of the OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT INDEX also
increased from -0.34 to -0.28.
• The expectations regarding changes in the overall economic environment after half a year have
improved. INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT increased from -0.23 to 0.01.
• Two-year expectations regarding the expansion of business activity also remain positive; the value of THE
INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN BUSINESS ACTIVITY two years in December compared to November changed
only slightly and is 0.21 (was 0.20).
• The level of uncertainty remains high for the long-term and medium-term horizons and lower for the
short-term horizon; in December, compared to November, there was a slight decrease in the level of
uncertainty in all time periods, albeit to a different extent.
PRODUCTION
• In December, compared to November, the rate of production decline will remain almost unchanged. THE
PRODUCTION INDEX changed within statistical error from -0.13 in November to -0.14 in December.
• Business expectations for the next three months have improved significantly. The INDEX OF EXPECTED
CHANGES IN PRODUCTION VOLUMES significantly increased from 0.04 in November to 0.23 in December.
DEMAND AND SALES
• The demand situation is improving, the pace of sales reduction has remained unchanged, and the pace
of reduction in the number of new orders has slowed down significantly. The value of the SALES INDEX in
November and December was -0.14, and the value of the NEW ORDERS INDEX increased from -0.11 to -
0.05.
• Business expectations regarding future demand have improved significantly. Both THE INDEX OF EXPECTED
CHANGES IN SALES and THE INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN NEW ORDERS increased from 0.04 to 0.24 and from
0.21 to 0.29, respectively.
DEBTS

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• For the third month in a row, a reduction in receivables is observed (the value of the corresponding
index decreased from -0.03 to -0.05). At the same time, the pace of accounts payables (from -0.08 to -
0.05) and tax arrears (from -0.12 to -0.10) reduction has somewhat slowed down.
• In the three-month, the business does not expect significant changes in debts. The INDEX OF EXPECTED
CHANGES IN ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLES slightly decreased from -0.14 to -0.19, and THE INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES
IN ACCOUNTS PAYABLES remained unchanged at -0.17. The indicator for tax arrears also almost did not
change (-0.17 in November, -0.16 in December).
EMPLOYMENT
• The dynamics of changes in employment indicators show the stabilization of supply and demand in the
labor market.
• The pace of employment reduction at enterprises remains unchanged for the second month in a row;
the NUMBER OF WORKERS INDEX is -0.08.
• In the next three months, businesses also do not expect significant changes in the level of employment,
although the value of THE INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES increased slightly, from -0.03 in November to zero in
December.
• The trend to reduce workers on forced leave slowed down somewhat, but the rate of reduction
remained high (the values of the corresponding index did not change during December and November
and are -0.20); in three months, enterprises expect a slight acceleration of this process (the index
decreased from -0.25 to -0.28).
• Supply and demand in the labor market remain balanced. Difficulties in finding labor are insignificant, a
slight increase in the corresponding indicators was recorded both for skilled workers (from 0.11 to 0.12)
and for unskilled workers (from 0.02 to 0.05).
OBSTACLES TO DOING BUSINESS IN WARTIME
• In December 2022, the top 3 challenges for business remained unchanged: power cuts, rising prices, and
that it is unsafe to work. Companies reported each of them as often as in November 2022.
• Disruption of supply chains ranked fourth in the ranking of obstacles. It broke the downward trend of
the issue's importance, which lasted from September to November 2022.
AVAILABILTY OF ORDERS
• As in November 2022, enterprises were provided with orders for an average of two months in
December.
• In December, the share of businesses provided with orders for less than a month increased, and the
share of those with orders for one-two months decreased.
PRODUCTION CAPACITIES DURING THE WAR PERIOD
• Despite the Russian terrorist attacks, in December, businesses remained resistant to new challenges,
and the situation with production volumes stabilized. In total, 47% of respondents worked at almost full,
full, and above full capacity in November and December.
• Despite power cuts and missile attacks, only 3% of surveyed enterprises are not operating (2% in
September-November). And only 5% of enterprises are working at less than 25% capacity (6% in
October and 7% in November).
• Industries that provide basic human needs continue to overcome the hardships of war best. 63% of the
food industry enterprises, 54% of the printing industry, and 46% of the light industry enterprises are
working almost at full capacity.
• Micro-enterprises remain more sensitive to the war, which is why they again significantly reduced
production capacities. If, in November, 32% of enterprises worked at 100% or more compared to pre-
war production volumes, then, in December, they were only 21%.
EXPORTING ENTERPRISES

9
• 58% of respondents reported they were exporters at the beginning of 2022.
• The results of the last few waves of the survey indicate that enterprises have exhausted the possibilities
for active recovery of export activities. In fact, for four months in a row, the share of enterprises that
stopped exporting after February 24 remained at the same level - 15% in December against 17% in
November and October and 16% in September.
• In December, the export volume recovery rate accelerated. The value of the index of changes in exports
increased compared to the previous month from -0.18 to -0.11. It happened, first of all, due to the
increase in the share of respondents, for whom, export volumes increased (from 4.0% in November to
13.7% in December). However, for 58.8% of exporters, export volumes did not change (72.3% in
November).
• Despite the continuation of Russian terrorist attacks, expectations regarding exports have improved
significantly. The index of expected changes in exports rose from 0 in November to 0.23 in November,
the best result in all waves of the survey. In particular, the share of enterprises planning to increase
exports increased (from 13.6% in November to 27.3% in December).
• After a slight intensification of the micro-business export activity in November, the situation worsened
again in December. As of December, one in two (47%) microenterprises stopped and could not resume
exports, although, in November, this was the case with only one in three (32%).
POWER CUTS EFFECT
• The business was significantly affected by power cuts caused by Russian terrorist attacks. The majority
of enterprises (86%) temporarily suspended work due to outages, and only 14% had no outages.
• On average, businesses lost 21% of their working time per month due to power cuts (data for November
2022).
• A large number of enterprises were able to minimize the loss of time during power cuts. In particular,
4% of enterprises worked all the time during the absence of light, and 31% did not work only 1-10% of
the working time. In contrast, only 6% of enterprises did not work more than half of the time (51-100%)
due to power cuts.
• Micro-businesses had less capacity to deal with power cuts. As a result, on average, micro-enterprises
lost the most working time - 31% (for comparison, 21% of small, 17% of medium, and 22% of large
companies lost working time).
• Industries providing the basic needs of the population lost, on average, the least working time among
industries due to power cuts – 15% printing, 18% food, and 19% light industry.
GOVERNMENT POLICY
• In December 2022, estimates of government business support policies generally remained at the level of
November. Most often, this policy was assessed neutrally: 49% of respondents.
• The share of positive assessments (21%) slightly exceeds the share of negative ones (18%).

10
INDICATORS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE HALF-YEAR PERIOD
BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT THE ENTERPRISE
In December, compared to November 2022, assessments by enterprises of their own business
activity improved after worsening for two months in a row. In December, THE INDEX OF THE CURRENT BUSINESS
ACTIVITY increased from -0.33 to -0.24. It happened due to a decrease in the share of respondents who assessed
business activity as bad, from 37.2% to 31.4%. At the same time, the share of those who positively assess the
business activity slightly increased from 4.0% to 4 .8%. The share of respondents who consider the business
activity at the enterprise satisfactory increased from 58.7% to 63.8%.
Six months' expectations also significantly improved; the VALUE OF THE INDEX OF THE EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE
BUSINESS ACTIVITY increased from -0.18 to 0.01, changing its sign to positive. At the same time, the share of
"pessimists" decreased from 30.9% to 22.8%, and the share of "optimists" increased significantly, from 13.8% to
22.1%. The share of those who do not expect any changes has changed slightly and is 55.0% (it was 55.3%).
The share of respondents who could not give a forecast regarding changes in the business activity at the
enterprise for the six months is gradually decreasing for the second month in a row and amounts to 42.1% (it
was 43.8% in November).
Fig. 3. Business activity at the enterprise, indices
BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT THE ENTERPRISE COMPARED TO A SIMILAR
PERIOD OF THE LAST YEAR
A comparison of the company's business activity with the same period last year shows a significant economic
decline. The value of the BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX (YEAR TO YEAR) in December is low and has decreased compared to
November from -0.68 to -0.74. 77.1% of the entrepreneurs surveyed noted that their business activity has
significantly worsened compared to the same period last year (70.4% of them were in November). At the same
time, the share of those who consider the business activity to be the same as last year decreased from 27.1% to
20.2%. And the share of respondents whose situation has improved has changed slightly and amounts to 2.7%
(it was 2.5% in November).
Size. The current business activity has declined regardless of the size of the enterprise. But compared to last
year, large (-0.67) and medium-sized (-0.72) enterprises feel somewhat better than micro (-0.83) and small (-
0.80) ones.
Region. Regional differences are significant. Poltava region has the only indicator with a positive value (0.09).
Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, and Chernivtsi regions have the worst indicators (-1.00 each).
-0,36
-0,32
-0,20 -0,22
-0,09
-0,16
-0,33
-0,24
0,07
0,15
0,12
0,03
0,11
-0,09
-0,18
0,01
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23
Business activity at the enterprise
Expected business activity at the enterprise

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Sector. In terms of industries, the value of the index is negative for all groups. The highest index value was
recorded for the food industry (-0.65), followed by the light industry (-0.73). The worst indicators are for the
production of construction materials (-0.96 each) and the printing industry (-1.00).
Fig. 4. How do you assess the business activity at the enterprise compared to last year?, % of respondents
EXPANSION PLANS FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS
Expectations regarding business activity for the next six months remain positive, and the indicator remained
almost unchanged compared to November. At the same time, we should note that the percentage of those
who plan to expand their activities in the next two years decreased for the third month in a row and amounted
to 30.4% in December (it was 31.6% in November). The share of those planning to reduce their activities
decreased from 11.6% to 9.3% in December. At the same time, the share of those who plan to stay at the
current level increased from 56.7% to 60.4%. The index of expected changes in business activity in the two years
horizon is 0.21 (it was 0.20).
It is important to note that although the percentage of those who could not give a forecast for such a distant
period has decreased slightly, it remains high at 51.9% (it was 54.2% in November).
Fig. 5. Do you plan to expand the company's activities in the next two years?, % of respondents
Size. Among enterprises of all sizes, "optimists" outnumber "pessimists," as evidenced by the positive value of
the respective indices. The most optimistic about the future are medium-sized enterprises, whose indicator is
0.09. The index values for micro- and large enterprises are approximately the same (0.35 and 0.36, respectively).
The value of the index for small enterprises is less and is 0.21.
70,4
27,1
2,5
77,1
20,2
2,7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Worse The same Better
Nov.22 Dec.22
31,6
56,7
11,6
54,2
30,4
60,4
9,3
51,9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Yes, I'm planning to
extend
Planning to stay at
the current level
Planning to lower
activity
It's hard to predict
Nov.22 Dec.22

12
Region. Significant regional differences were registered. There is a group of regions with predominance of
positive expectations and vice versa, groups with negative expectations. Poltava (1.00) and Chernihiv (0.86)
regions have the highest expectations. A negative value of the index of the expected change was recorded in
four regions (Zhytomyr (-0.18), Dnipropetrovsk (-0.29), Vinnytsya (-0.33), and Rivne (-0.36) regions).
Sector. Expectations vary by industry. The food industry (0.35) and machine building (0.24) have the highest
expectations indicator. The indicator for metalworking is the only one with a negative value (-0.11).
OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
The assessment of the overall economic environment, as well as the business activity at the enterprise, has
improved. The value of the corresponding INDEX in December compared to November increased from -0.34 to -
0.28. It happened due to a simultaneous decrease in the share of those who assess the overall economic
environment as bad (from 37.7% to 34.2%) and an increase in the share of those who give positive assessments
(from 2.1% to 3.2%). The share of those who consider the overall economic environment to be satisfactory also
increased (from 60.3% in November to 62.6%).
In December, compared to November, the forecasts of enterprises regarding changes in the overall economic
environment for the next six months improved significantly: the value of THE INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE
OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT significantly increased from -0.23 to 0.01, changing its sign to positive. The
dynamics are similar to the dynamics of expectations regarding the business activity at the enterprise. The share
of "optimists" regarding changes in the overall economic environment has almost doubled, from 14.6% to
23.3%. And at the same time, the share of "pessimists" has significantly decreased from 35.0% to 23.3%. The
share of those who believe that the overall economic environment will not change during the next six months
increased from 50.4% to 53.3%.
The share of those who could not give forecasts about the state of the overall economic environment decreased
from 47.7% to 43.4%.
Fig. 6. Overall economic environment, indices
UNCERTAINTY
Half-year expectations
For the second month in a row, the level of uncertainty in the forecasts of both the business activity at the
enterprise and the overall economic environment is gradually decreasing. The share of respondents who could
not give a forecast about changes in the business activity at the enterprise in six months decreased from 43.8%
to 42.1%. And the percentage of those unable to predict the overall economic environment in the country
shortened from 47.7% to 43. 4%.
-0,54
-0,44
-0,37
-0,28
-0,20
-0,31
-0,34
-0,28
0,01
0,16
0,09
0,01
0,12
-0,12
-0,23
0,01
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
Current overall economic environment
Expected overall economic environment

13
Fig. 7. The level of the business activity and the overall economic environment uncertainty, % of respondents
The level of uncertainty regarding the business activity at the enterprise and its dynamics depends on the
enterprise's size. In December, the uncertainty index decreased for micro (from 43.4% to 32.8%) and small
(from 52.2% to 46.2%) companies. For medium-sized enterprises, the indicator of the uncertainty for business
activity has changed slightly and amounts to 45.3% (it was 45.8%). At the same time, for large enterprises, the
uncertainty index increased from 30.1% to 35.8%.
Fig. 8. The share of respondents unable to answer the question about the change in the business activity in six months
Uncertainty about the overall economic environment, as for business activity, depends on the size of the
enterprise. At the same time, the level of uncertainty decreased the most for micro-enterprises (from 52.8% to
37.9%). Also, the level of uncertainty decreased for small (from 56.5% to 50.0%) and large (from 37.2% to
31.7%) enterprises. For medium-sized enterprises, the level of uncertainty regarding the overall economic
environment has changed only slightly and is 46.7% (it was 46.3% in November).
Fig. 9. The share of respondents unable to answer the question regarding the change in the overall economic environment in the six
months
45,0% 43,3%
31,4%
29,0% 34,4%
45,9% 43,8%
42,1%
47,7% 43,6%
33,9%
33,2%
36,7%
49,8% 47,7% 43,4%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22
No answer on business activity in six month
No answer on economic environment in six month
32,7
40,8
44,2
51,8
54,2
35,5
29,2
21,6
34,4
30,3 29,0
24,8
50,9
36,2
30,9 30,7
38,8
49,6
41,3
51,8
43,4
52,2
45,8
30,1
32,8
46,2 45,3
35,8
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
Micro Small Medium Large
34,6
47,6
42,6 45,8
47,9
41,1
30,4
26,5
37,5 36,6
31,1 30,2
50,9
42,0
33,0 30,7
46,9
50,4 51,2 48,2
52,8
56,5
46,3
37,2
37,9
50,0 46,7
31,7
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0

14
Three-month expectations
In the three-month horizon, there is also a decrease in uncertainty for almost all indicators. Debt uncertainty
decreased after increasing for two months, although still at record highs. The indicators of tax arrears (from
35.7% to 33.0%) and receivables (from 37.5% to 35.0%) decreased the most. Exports have the lowest level of
uncertainty, where the percentage decreased from 11.8% to 10.2%. The only indicator where the level of
uncertainty has increased in the short term is the number of workers on forced leave (where the percentage
increased from 14.0% to 15.6%).
Fig. 10. The share of enterprises unable to forecast the change of the indicator in three months, % of respondents
ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND SHORT-TERM
EXPECTATIONS
PRODUCTION
Changes compared to the previous month
In December, compared to November, there were no significant changes in production. The PRODUCTION INDEX
stands at -0.14 (it was -0.13 in November). It happened because both the share of enterprises where production
decreased from 23.5% to 32.2% and the share of enterprises that increased production grew from 8.3% to
14.0%. At the same time, the share of companies where no changes occurred decreased from 68.2% to 53.8% in
December 2022.
Size. A significant difference between enterprises of different sizes was recorded. Large companies felt the best
among enterprises of various sizes; for them, the index is the highest, although negative, and amounts to -
0.08.The value of the index for medium-sized enterprises is -0.14, and for small enterprises - -0.23. The worst
situation is for small enterprises, where the index is -0.43.
Region. Regional differences are very significant (the largest value is 0.80, and the smallest is -0.93). The best
results were achieved by enterprises in Kyiv (0.8), Poltava (0.36), and Ternopil (0.30) regions. The lowest values
of the index were recorded for the enterprise of Zaporizhzhya, (-0.93), Khmelnytskyy (-0.70), and
Dnipropetrovsk (-0.55) regions.
Sector. Index values vary across sectors and industries. The best situation is in the food industry, whose
indicator has a single positive value and is 0.04. Indicators of other industries are negative, and the lowest value
is for metalworking (-0.59) and construction materials production (-0.61).

15
Fig. 11. Indices of changes in production
Expected changes in production
Enterprises' production plans for three months improved significantly. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN
PRODUCTION increased significantly, from 0.04 to 0.23. The share of enterprises planning to increase production
almost doubled in December, from 16.9% to 32.1%. And the share of those planning to reduce production
decreased from 13.4% to 11.7%. The percentage of those who do not expect changes decreased from 69.7% to
56.3%.
Size. Production expectations are highest for large enterprises, whose index is 0.28. The indicator of small (0.21)
and medium (0.23) enterprises is approximately the same. The indicator of micro-enterprises is the lowest and
the only one with a negative value of — -0.14.
Region. Enterprise plans depend significantly on the region of location. Ternopil (0.90), Poltava (0.82), and
Odesa (0.73) regions have the most optimistic plans for production growth. The lowest indicators of
expectations are in Chernihiv (-0.37), Dnipropetrovsk (-0.30), and Sumy (-0.29) regions.
Sector. Production expectations for three months depend on the sector. The highest indicators are for the food
(0.38), printing (0.25) industries, and light industry (0.24). The lowest values are for metal production,
metalworking (-0.28), and the woodworking industry (-0.30).
SALES
In November, the rate of DECREASE in sales slowed down. The SALES INDEX remained unchanged and is -0.14. It
became possible due to an increase in the share of enterprises that decreased sales (from 25.0% to 32.6%) and
an increase in enterprises where sales volumes increased (from 9.7% to 15.1%). At the same time, the share of
enterprises where there were no changes decreased from 65.3% to 52.3% in December.
Size. THE SALES INDEX of large enterprises (-0.07) is the highest. The indicator of medium-sized enterprises is -0.14,
and of small enterprises - -0.22. The lowest value is for micro-enterprises - -0.44.
Region. The highest value of the SALES INDEX was recorded for the Poltava (0.73) and Ternopil (0.30) regions and
the city of Kyiv (0.24). The lowest indicator is in Zaporizhzhya (-0.93), Sumy (-0.76), and Khmelnytskyy (-0.67)
regions.
Sector. The food industry has the highest SALES INDEX with the only positive value (0.07). Metalworking (-0.59)
and construction materials production (-0.64) has the lowest value.
-0,55
-0,30
-0,12 -0,09
0,05
-0,03
-0,13 -0,14
0,12
0,22 0,24
0,20
0,32
0,17
0,04
0,23
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
Production Production exp.

16
Expected changes in sales
Sales expectations have improved significantly. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN SALES in December compared to
November increased from 0.04 to 0.24. The share of respondents who plan to increase sales in the next three
months almost doubled, from 18.4% to 32.7%. And the share of those who expect them to decrease fell from
14.5% to 12.1%. At the same time, the percentage of respondents who believe nothing will change has
significantly decreased, from 67.1% to 55.2%.
Size. Representatives of large enterprises (0.30) have the highest expectations. The indicator for small and
medium-sized enterprises is the same at 0.22. And for micro-enterprises, the indicator is the lowest and the only
negative at -017.
Region. The best expectations were recorded in Poltava (0.91), Ternopil (0.90), and Odesa (0.73) regions. On the
other hand, the indicators are the lowest in Dnipropetrovsk (-0.30), Sumy (-0.350, and Chernihiv (-0.44) regions).
Sector. The food industry (0.40), the light industry (0.24), and the printing industry (0.17) have the highest and
most positive indicators of sales expectations. The indicator of expectations for construction materials
production is zero. Expectations are lowest for the metalworking (-0.28) and woodworking (-0.35) industries.
Fig. 12. Indices of changes in sales
EXPORT
In December, the export growth rate accelerated somewhat. The value of the EXPORT INDEX increased from -0.18
to -0.11. The share of respondents whose export volume decreased increased from 23.7% in November to
28.0%. At the same time, the share of enterprises that increased export volumes also increased, from 4.0% to
13.7%. And the share of enterprises whose export volumes did not change significantly decreased (from 72.3%
to 58.8%).
Size. Medium (-0.07) and large (-0.10) enterprises have the highest value of the EXPORT INDEX. The indicator of
small enterprises is -0.21. The indicator for micro-enterprises is the lowest - -0.67.
Region. Ternopil (0.71), Poltava (0.45), and Rivne (0.23) regions have the highest indicators. Sumy (-1.00) and
Zaporizhzhya (-0.96) regions have the lowest value.
Sector. In the sectoral dimension, the export index is highest for the light industry (0.07) and food industry
(0.05). The indicator of the printing is zero. The indicators of all other industries have a negative value, and the
lowest values are for the woodworking industry (-0.40) and the production of construction materials (-0.50).
Expected changes in export
Export expectations have improved significantly. The value of the INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES in December
compared to November increased from zero to 0.23. The share of those who plan to increase exports grew from
-0,48
-0,36
-0,16
-0,09
0,01 -0,03
-0,14 -0,14
0,11
0,23 0,23 0,20
0,33
0,19
0,04
0,24
-0,60
-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
Sales Sales exp.

17
13.6% to 27.3%. At the same time, the share of those who plan to decrease it by 13.3% decreased from 6.8%.
The share of those who do not expect any changes decreased from 73.1% to 65.9%.
Size. Large enterprises have the best export expectations (0.30). The indicator of medium-sized enterprises is
0.22, and of small enterprises - 0.13. The only indicator of expectations with a negative value is for micro-
enterprises - -0.10.
Region. The highest value of the INDEX OF EXPECTED EXPORT CHANGES was recorded for enterprises of Ternopil
(1.00), Odesa (0.81), and Ivano-Frankivsk (0.78) regions. The expectations of business representatives in the
Sumy (-1.00) and Chernihiv (-0.25) regions are the worst.
Sector. The light (0.29) and the food industry (0.27) have the highest value of the index of expected export
changes. Indicators for the chemical (-0.06), printing (-0.17), and woodworking (-0.33) industries have negative
values.
Fig. 13. Indices of changes in export
STOCKS OF RAW MATERIALS
The rate of raw material stock reduction slightly accelerated, as evidenced by the increase in the STOCKS OF THE
RAW MATERIAL INDEX from -0.19 in November to -0.15 in December. The share of respondents who reported an
increase in raw material stocks over the past month doubled, from 5.3% to 10.2%. At the same time, the share
of respondents who indicated its reduction increased only slightly, from 25.3% to 27.7%. The share of
entrepreneurs for whom nothing has changed compared to last month decreased from 69.4% to 62.1%.
Size. THE STOCKS OF RAW MATERIAL INDEX is approximately the same for large (-0.09) and medium (-0.13)
enterprises. The indicator of small enterprises is -0.21. The indicator of micro-enterprises is the lowest and is -
0.45.
Region. Poltava (0.91), Rivne (0.37), and Ternopil (0.30) regions have the highest indicators. The indicators of
Khmelnytskyy (-0.63), Kharkiv region, and Kyiv (-0.57 each) have the lowest values.
Sector. The indicators of all sectors are negative. The food industry (-0.04) and light industry (-0.17) have the
highest value. The lowest indicator was recorded for the woodworking (-0.41) industry and metalworking (-
0.55).
Expected changes in stocks of raw material
For the next three months, the entrepreneurs surveyed expect a significant increase in the indicator: in
December, the INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN STOCKS OF RAW MATERIAL increased significantly compared to
November, from -0.02 to 0.19, changing its sign from negative to positive, and is the highest indicator for the
-0,42
-0,48
-0,31
-0,24 -0,21
-0,15 -0,18
-0,11
0,07
0,11 0,14 0,12
0,22
0,13
0,00
0,23
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
Export Export exp.

18
entire study period. The number of respondents who expect raw material stocks to increase has almost
doubled, from 17.6% to 30.4%. And the share of those believing that raw material stocks will decline has
decreased from 19.0% to 12.8%. The share of those who believe the situation will not change decreased from
63.5% to 56.7%.
Size. Medium and large enterprises have the highest and the same value of the INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN
STOCKS OF RAW MATERIALS (0.21). The indicator of small enterprises is 0.16. The only negative value is the indicator
of expectations for micro-enterprises and is -0.05.
Region. Poltava (0.91) and Ternopil (0.90) regions have the highest INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN STOCKS OF RAW
MATERIALS. The lowest value of the index is for the city of Kyiv (-0.62), the Dnipropetrovsk (-0.30), and Vinnytsia (-
0.21) regions.
Sector. The food industry (0.32) and light industry (0.20) have the highest indicator of expectations regarding
changes in raw material stocks. Metal processing (-0.24) and the woodworking industry (-0.37) have negative
indicators of expectations.
Fig. 14. Indices of changes in stocks of raw materials
STOCKS OF FINISHED GOODS
The stocks of finished goods index is decreasing for the third month in a row. The value of the corresponding
index decreased from -0.34 to -0.40 in December. The share of respondents who reported a decrease in stocks
of finished products increased from 39.7% to 48.6%. And the share of respondents who reported an increase in
stocks grew from 5.3% to 7.6%. The share of respondents who did not feel any changes increased from 39.7% to
43.8%.
Size. Depending on the enterprise size, the value of the index also changes; it is the highest for large enterprises
(-0.30). Indicators of small (-0.41), micro- (-0.43), and medium-sized (-0.47) enterprises should be in
approximately the same range.
Region. The value of the index depends on the region. Among the enterprises, Poltava (0.73) and Kyiv (0.28)
regions have the highest and positive value of the indicator. The Sumy region comes next (0.00). For the rest of
the areas, the index values are negative. The largest decrease in stocks is observed in Ternopil (-0.95), Ivano-
Frankivsk (-0.89), and Zaporizhzhya (-0.75) regions.
Sector. The indicators of all sectors have a negative value, but the printing industry (-0.67) and metalworking (-
0.59) have the lowest value, and machine building (-0.03), chemical and woodworking industries (by -0.25 each)
have the highest value.
-0,62
-0,41
-0,29
-0,16
-0,01
-0,12
-0,19
-0,15
0,01 0,00
0,15
0,06
0,17
0,00 -0,02
0,19
-0,70
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
Stocks of raw materials Stocks of raw materials exp.

19
Expected changes in stocks of finished goods
In the future, entrepreneurs expect an increase in the indicator. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN STOCKS OF
FINISHED GOODS increased from -0.36 to -0.27 after decreasing for two consecutive months. The share of
respondents who believe stocks of finished goods will decrease in the next three months has decreased from
41.2% to 36.9%. The share of those who expect them to increase has almost doubled, from 3.7% to 7.3 %. The
percentage of those who believe that nothing will change has changed slightly and is 55.8% (it was 55.1%).
Size. The value of the indicator depends on the size of the enterprise. The indicator is higher for large
enterprises (-0.12). At the same time, the indicator is approximately the same for medium (-0.33) and micro (-
0.30) enterprises. The value for small businesses is the lowest at -0.40.
Region. The highest indicator of expectations is for Poltava (0.55) and Sumy (0.06) regions. The indicators of the
Kyiv and Chernihiv regions are equal to zero. The indicator of expectations for all other regions has a negative
value and is the lowest for Kharkiv and Ivano-Frankivsk (-1.00 each) and Lviv (-0.97) regions.
Sector. The index for machine building has the only positive value and is 0.11. The index of printing (-0.64) and
light (-0.38) industries are the lowest.
Fig. 15. Indices of changes in stocks of finished goods
NEW ORDERS
The dynamics of new orders have improved. The NEW ORDERS INDEX in December compared to November
doubled, from -0.11 to -0.05, due to an increase in the share of those whose new orders increased, from 9.3% to
16.8%. At the same time, the share of respondents who reported a reduction in the number of new orders in
December increased less significantly, from 23.3% to 26.8%. The share of those who did not feel any changes
decreased from 67.4% to 56.5%.
Size. The index value is highest for large enterprises and amounts to 0.06, which is the only indicator with a
positive value. The indicator of medium-sized enterprises is -0.05, and of small enterprises - -0.19. The lowest is
the value of micro-enterprises - -0.38.
Region. Among the regions, new orders grew the most in Poltava (0.91), Rivne (0.37), and Ternopil (0.30)
regions, while in Dnipropetrovsk (-0.60), Khmelnytskyy (-0.67) and Sumy (-0.71) regions the new orders
decreased the most.
-0,33
-0,17
-0,29
-0,13
-0,03
-0,23
-0,34
-0,40
-0,08
-0,12
-0,09
-0,11
0,07
-0,16
-0,36
-0,27
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
Stocks of finished goods Stocks of finished goods exp.

20
Sector. In the previous month, the situation with new orders was the best in the food industry, whose indicator
has a single positive value (0.12). Metal processing (-0.41), chemical industry (-0.43), and construction materials
production (-0.61) have the lowest indicators.
Expected changes in new orders
The growth rate of new orders is expected to accelerate. The value of the INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN NEW
ORDERS increased from 0.15 to 0.29 after decreasing for two consecutive months. The share of those expecting
an increase in new orders grew from 30.0% to 37.0%. At the same time, the share of respondents who believe
that the number of orders will decrease decreased from 14.2% to 10.7%. The share of those not expecting any
changes in the next three months decreased from 55.8% to 52.3%.
Size. The indicator of expectations is the highest and has the same value for medium and large enterprises and
is 0.31. For small enterprises, the indicator is 0.26. The indicator of expectations for micro-enterprises is the only
one with a negative value of -0.07.
Region. Index values have significant regional differences. In Poltava (0.91), Lviv (0.87), and Ternopil (0.85)
regions, businesses expect an increase in new orders to a greater extent than in other regions. However, the
indicators of Sumy (-0.50), Chernihiv (-0.37), and Dnipropetrovsk (-0.30) regions are the lowest.
Sector. The food and printing industries (0.42 each) and light industry (0.27) have the best expectations for new
orders. Indicators of the woodworking industry (-0.19) and metalworking (-0.28) have negative values and are
the lowest.
Fig. 16. Indices of changes in new orders
Availability of orders
In December 2022, the surveyed enterprises had orders for an average of two months. This median value was
unchanged from November 2022, when the average order duration also was two months. However, some
differences in the structure of the answers can be observed.
First of all, the share of the enterprises that could not estimate the volume of orders decreased: in December it
was 10% compared to November 2022. As in November, it includes enterprises that are not working. In
addition, the share of businesses that have orders for a short period – up to one month – has increased, while
fewer respondents reported that they have orders for a month or two.
Thus, in December, 16% of enterprises said that they were provided with orders for a period of less than one
month, and 42%, for one or two months. In November, the respective shares were 7% and 50%. 22% of
enterprises have orders for a period of 3 to 5 months, 12%, for 6 to 11 months, and 9%, for a year or more.
These shares are roughly the same as they were in November 2022.
-0,52
-0,30
-0,19
-0,02 0,01
-0,03
-0,11
-0,05
0,10
0,19
0,25 0,23
0,34
0,21
0,15
0,29
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
New orders New orders exp.

21
Fig. 17. Period for which enterprises are provided with orders as of December (% of respondents)
Size. The period for which enterprises are provided with orders increases with the increase in their size. Micro-
enterprises are provided with orders for the shortest period: only one month on average (median value). Among
micro-enterprises, there is the largest share of those having orders for a term of only up to two months: 79%.
For small and medium-sized enterprises, the average time for order provision is two months, and for large
enterprises, three months. At the same time, a third of large enterprises reported they have orders for six
months or longer.
Sector. Metallurgy and construction materials production were the least provided with orders in December
2022, on average only one month (median value)1
. Among the producers of construction materials, the largest
share of enterprises – 81% – reported they have orders for two months or less.
For the rest of the sectors, the average order availability period is two months. However, the woodworking
industry and machine building stand out: more than 30% of enterprises have orders for six months or more. For
comparison, among other industries, the share of enterprises with orders for such a period does not exceed
23%.
Region. There are significant differences in order availability between enterprises in different regions2
. The
average term for order availability is the longest for enterprises of the Kyiv region; it is 12 months (median
value). The enterprises in the Volyn and Poltava regions (6 months) also have a relatively large stock of orders.
At the same time, in the Poltava region, all surveyed enterprises indicated that they have orders for six months
or more, which is the largest compared to other regions.
On the other hand, the enterprises of Vinnytsia and Chernivtsi regions have orders for less than one month on
average. It is the lowest among all regions covered by this survey. The Kharkiv region is also characterized by a
short period of order availability; all surveyed enterprises in this region have orders for up to two months.
1
This analysis does not consider enterprises in agriculture, construction, trade, and services and enterprises included in
the "Other production" category.
2
Regions, where no enterprises were surveyed, are not included in the comparison. In addition, we present data from
the Kharkiv region since this survey was conducted there in December 2022 for the first time since the beginning
of the full-scale Russian invasion. But the number of respondents in this region is insufficient for statistical
comparison. For more details, see the "Sample" section.
7%
50%
21%
9%
13%
16%
42%
22%
12%
9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Less than 1 month 1 to 2 months 3 to 5 months 6 to 11 months 12 months and
more
Nov.22 Dec.2022

22
ACCOUNT RECEIVABLES
The indicator of receivables decreased for the third month in a row. The value of the ACCOUNT RECEIVABLES INDEX
decreased from -0.03 to -0.05. The share of those who reported an increase in receivables has changed slightly
and is 13.4% (it was 13.0%). At the same time, the share of those whose receivables decreased increased from
16.6% to 20.8%. The share of those for whom nothing has changed over the past month decreased from 70.4%
to 65.8%.
Size. The worst situation with receivables is for large (0.02) enterprises. The indicator of small and medium-sized
enterprises is the same and is -0.09. The best value is for micro-enterprises, which is the lowest at -0.22.
Region. Significant regional differences in the values of this indicator were recorded. In terms of regions, the
largest increase in receivables was recorded in Zaporizhzhya (0.30) region, Kyiv city (0.29), Odesa (0.24), and
Kyiv (0.23) regions. The lowest is the indicator for Kharkiv (-1.00), Zhytomyr (-0.86), and Sumy (-0.77) regions.
Sector. The printing (0.17) and woodworking (0.11) industries have the highest positive value. The indicator of
the food industry is zero. Indicators of other industries have a negative value, and the lowest are indicators of
metalworking (-0.20) and construction materials production (-0.33).
Expected changes in account receivables
A further debt reduction is expected in the next three months. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN ACCOUNT
RECEIVABLES increased from -0.14 to -0.19. The share of respondents expecting an increase in this indicator
decreased from 5.2% to 3.9%. And the share of those expecting it to decrease increased from 19.7% to 23.5%.
The share of those who believe that nothing will change has decreased from 75.2% to 72.6%.
Size. Large enterprises have the highest expectation index (-0.14). The indicators of small (-0.25), medium (-
0.20), and micro enterprises (-0.21) are about the same.
Region. The city of Kyiv (0.15) has the largest and the only positive indicator value. The indicators of the
Zaporizhzhya, Cherkasy, Rivne, Poltava, Zakarpattya, and Chernivtsi regions are zero. Other regions' indicators
have a negative value; the lowest is the indicator of the Kharkiv and Sumy regions (-1.00 each).
Sector. The woodworking industry has the highest indicator of expectations for an increase in receivables, which
is equal to -0.05. The value for metalworking (-0.45) and construction materials production (-0.47) is the lowest.
Fig. 18. Indices of changes in account receivables
0,15
0,03
0,05 0,05
0,08
0,01
-0,03
-0,05
0,00
-0,03
-0,16
-0,13
-0,08
-0,18
-0,14
-0,19
-0,25
-0,20
-0,15
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
Accounts receivable Accounts receivable exp.

23
ACCOUNT PAYABLES
In December, after a decrease for two months in a row, the indicator of payables slightly increased. The
ACCOUNT PAYABLES INDEX increased from -0.08 to -0.05. The share of respondents who reported an increase in
debt changed slightly, increasing from 10.3% to 11.5%. At the same time, the share of those whose accounts
payable decreased increased from 17.9% to 19.4%. The share of those for whom nothing has changed over the
past month decreased from 71.8% to 69.1%.
Size. The indicator of large enterprises has the only positive value, which is 0.05. The indicator of medium (-0.10)
and small (-0.12) enterprises is approximately the same. The micro-enterprises have the lowest indicator of
payables; it is -0.24.
Region. Significant regional differences were recorded. The situation with the accumulation of payables is the
worst in Chernivtsi (0.50) and Zaporizhzhya (0.37) regions, and the best situation is in Zhytomyr (-0.80), Sumy (-
0.92) and Kharkiv (-1.00) regions.
Sector. The highest indicators were recorded in the woodworking (0.22) industry, which is the only sector with
an indicator that has a positive value. All other indicators are negative, but the lowest is for printing (-0.17) and
construction materials production (-0.30).
Expected changes in account payables
No changes in the dynamics of accounts payable are expected for the next three months. The INDEX OF EXPECTED
CHANGES IN ACCOUNT PAYABLES in December compared to November did not change and is -0.17. The share of
those expecting a decrease in payables has changed slightly and amounts to 20.6% (it was 20.7%). The share of
those who expect an increase in payables is 3.8% (it was 3 .6%). The share of respondents who believe that
nothing will change is 75.6% (it was 75.7%).
Size. The indicator of expected payables is higher and the same for large and micro enterprises (-0.13,
respectively). The indicators for medium (-0.20) and small (-0.17) enterprises are better and are approximately
in the same range.
Region. The indicator of expectations for payables is positive, and the only one above zero for the city of Kyiv is
0.05. The lowest is the indicator of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions (-1.00 each).
Sector. The woodworking industry (-0.05) has the highest indicator. The chemical industry (-0.39) and
construction materials production (-0.44) have the lowest value.
Fig. 19. Indices of changes in account payables
0,10
0,01
0,00 0,00 0,01
-0,03
-0,08
-0,05
0,00
-0,06
-0,19
-0,13 -0,14
-0,19
-0,17 -0,17
-0,25
-0,20
-0,15
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
Accounts payable Accounts payable exp.

24
TAX ARREARS
The rate of tax arrears reduction slowed down. THE TAX ARREARS INDEX in December compared to November
slightly increased, from -0.12 to -0.10. The share of enterprises that reported a decrease in tax debt for the past
month increased from 13.3% to 14.9%. At the same time, the share of respondents surveyed who indicated an
increase in tax debt from 1.6% to 4.35% also increased. The share of those who believe that no changes have
taken place has decreased from 85.1% to 80.8%.
Size. The indicators of tax arrears are better and approximately the same for large ones (-0.12) and small and
micro enterprises (-0.13 each). For medium-sized enterprises, the indicator is somewhat higher and is -0.07.
Region. There are significant differences in the value of this indicator by region. Tax arrears increased the most
for enterprises in Chernivtsi (0.33), Khmelnytskyy (0.25), and Odesa (0.24) regions and decreased for businesses
in Poltava (-0.82), Sumy (-0.87) and Kharkiv regions (-1.00) regions.
Sector. The indicator of tax arrears of the woodworking industry has the highest value, which is equal to zero.
The value for the printing industry is -0.33, and for machine building and construction materials production, it is
equal to -0.21 each.
Expected changes in tax arrears
No significant changes in the dynamics of tax arrears are expected for the next three months. The INDEX OF
EXPECTED CHANGES IN TAX ARREARS changed slightly and is -0.16 (it was -0.17). The share of those who predict a
decrease in tax debt increased from 16.4% to 17.0%. And so did the share of those expecting it to increase; it
grew from zero to 1.1%. The share of those who do not expect changes decreased from 83.6% to 81.9%.
Size. The indicator of expectations decreases depending on the size of the enterprise. Microenterprises have the
highest value (-0.11). The indicators of small (-0.13) and medium (-0.16) companies are somewhat lower. Large
enterprises have the best indicator (-0.20).
Region. The indicator of expectations for the Khmelnytskyy, Zaporizhzhya, Rivne, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, and
Zakarpattya regions is zero. Poltava (-0.82), Sumy (-0.87), and Zhytomyr and Kharkiv regions (-1.00 each) have
the lowest values.
Sector. The highest indicator of tax arrears expectations is for the woodworking industry and is 0.07. Indicators
of other sectors have a negative value, and the lowest is the indicator for machine building (-0.33) and
construction materials production (-0.36).
Fig. 20. Indices of changes in tax arrears
-0,09
-0,14
-0,06
-0,02
-0,06
-0,12
-0,10
-0,10
-0,18
-0,09
-0,07
-0,19
-0,17 -0,16
-0,25
-0,20
-0,15
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23
Tax arrears Tax arrears ex.

25
NUMBER OF WORKERS
The employment reduction rate remains almost unchanged for the third month in a row. The NUMBER OF
WORKERS INDEX, in December compared to November did not change and is -0.08. The share of respondents who
reported a decrease in the number of workers involved in all enterprise operations increased. While the share of
those who indicated their increase decreased from 2.0% to 1.8%. At the same time, the share of those for whom
nothing has changed decreased from 88.2% to 86.9%.
Size. This indicator is the highest for large enterprises (-0.04). The indicator of medium-sized enterprises is -0.09.
The indicator of small and micro enterprises is the same, the lowest, and amounts to -0.13.
Region. Rivne (0.05) and Odesa (0.03) regions have the highest indicator. The lowest value is for Dnipropetrovsk
(-0.40) and Sumy (-0.39) regions.
Sector. The indicator of the food industry (-0.02) and light industry (-0.04) is the highest. Machine building (-
0.21) and metalworking (-0.38) have the lowest values.
Expected changes in the number of workers
In the next three months, entrepreneurs expect a slight increase in the indicator: THE INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES
IN THE NUMBER OF WORKERS slightly increased from -0.03 to zero. The share of respondents who believe the
number of workers at the enterprise will increase grew from 4.0% to 4.9%. The share of those who expect a
reduction in the number of workers decreased from 7.1% to 5.3%. The share of those who believe nothing will
change has increased from 88.9% to 89.7%.
Size. The indicator of large enterprises is the highest at 0.05, and the indicator of medium-sized enterprises is
zero. The indicators of small (-0.04) and micro-enterprises (-0.07) are the lowest.
Region. The index of expected changes in the number of workers depends significantly on the region where the
enterprise is located. The highest indicator of expectations was recorded for Odesa (0.27), Kyiv (0.18), and
Chernivtsi (0.07) regions. It is the lowest for Chernihiv (-0.13), Dnipropetrovsk (-0.25), and Sumy (-0.29) regions.
Sector. The food industry (0.04) and machine building (0.03) have the highest expectations index. The indicators
of the woodworking (-0.15) industry and metalworking (-0.21) are the lowest.
Fig. 21. Indices of changes in the number of workers
WORKERS ON FORCED LEAVE
Enterprises continue to reduce the number of personnel on forced leave. But the reduction rate in December,
after accelerating for two months, remains at the level of November (as evidenced by the decrease in the
-0,54
-0,30
-0,16
-0,09
-0,03
-0,09 -0,08 -0,08
0,01 0,03
0,11
0,04 0,03
-0,02 -0,03
0,00
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov,22 Dec.22 Jan.23
Number of workers Number of workers exp.

26
value of this index). THE NUMBER OF WORKERS ON FORCED LEAVE INDEX in December, as in November, is -0.20. The
share of businesses that reported an increase in the number of workers on forced leave increased slightly from
4.8% to 5.8%. And the share of those who indicated a decrease increased from 25.5% to 26 .3%. The share of
those for whom the situation did not change over the past month decreased from 69.8% to 67.9%.
Size. The highest and the only positive is the index of micro-enterprises, which is 0.03, and the value of the index
of large enterprises is -0.11. The indicators of small (-0.28) and medium-sized (-0.26) enterprises are the lowest
and approximately the same.
Region. Among the various regions, the growth of the indicator is observed to the greatest extent among
enterprises in Khmelnytskyy (0.56) and Sumy (0.17) regions, and the decrease in the number of workers on
forced leave is most often reported in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Ternopil regions (-1.00 for each).
Sector. The woodworking (0.11) and metalworking (0.10) industries have the worst indicators regarding the
number of workers on forced leave. The lowest value is for the printing industry (-0.55).
Fig. 22. Indices of changes in the number of workers on forced leave
Expected change in the number of workers on forced leave
Enterprises that have workers on forced leave expect a further decrease in this indicator. The index of
expected changes in the number of workers on forced leave has decreased for the third month in a row and is -
0.28 (it was -0.25). It means a significant preponderance of those who plan to reduce the number of such
workers in the future. The share of enterprises where an increase in the number of workers on forced leave is
expected increased from 4.7% to 1.7%. At the same time, the share of those who believe that the number of
such workers at their company will decrease has changed slightly and is 30.3% (it was 30.6%). And the share of
those who believe there will be no changes increased from 64.7% to 68.0%.
Size. Micro-enterprises are the least likely to expect an increase in the number of workers on forced leave; their
index is -0.07. The indicator of large enterprises is -0.20. The indicator of small (-0.32) and medium (-0.35)
enterprises is approximately the same.
Region. The indicators of Chernihiv (0.07) and Zaporizhzhya (0.04) regions have higher index values, while
indicators of Ternopil, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Kharkiv regions (-1.00 each) are the lowest.
Sector. The highest indicator of expectations regarding the number of workers on forced leave is for
metalworking (0.06), and the indicator for the woodworking industry is zero. Indicators of other sectors have a
negative value, and the lowest is the indicator of the printing industry (-0.55).
0,35
0,05 0,06
0,01 0,00
-0,09
-0,20 -0,20
-0,01
-0,22
-0,14
-0,03
0,02
-0,17
-0,25
-0,28
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
Workers on forced leave Workers on forced leave exp.

27
SKILLED AND UNSKILLED WORKERS
In December, the situation with the search for skilled and unskilled workers indicates the balance of supply
and demand in the market. The value of the INDEX OF DIFFICULTIES IN FINDING SKILLED WORKERS is low and practically
unchanged compared to the previous month (0.12 in December, 0.11 in November). The value of the INDEX OF
DIFFICULTIES IN FINDING UNSKILLED WORKERS increased slightly and remains low, from 0.02 to 0.05.
The percentage distribution shows insignificant changes in the shares of positive, negative, and neutral
expectations. The share of company managers who indicated that skilled workers are more difficult to find
increased by only one percentage point, from 17.6% to 18.8%. And the share of those who find it more difficult
to find unskilled workers increased from 10.7% to 11.3%. At the same time, the percentage of those who find it
easier to find skilled workers decreased from 6.0% to 5.4%; and the share of those who find it easier to find
unskilled workers decreased from 8.8% to 5.8%. The share of those who do not feel any changes in finding
skilled workers decreased from 76.4% to 75.8%. And for unskilled workers, the percentage increased from
80.5% to 82.9%.
Fig. 23. Indices of changes in skilled and unskilled workers
Skilled workers
Size. Depending on the size of the enterprise, skilled workers are more difficult to find for micro (0.32) and small
(0.20) enterprises. And the index value for medium (0.10) and large (0.08) enterprises is about the same.
Region. Significant regional differences in the labor market were recorded. It is easier to find skilled workers in
Odesa (-0.32), Kyiv (-0.15), and Ivano-Frankivsk (-0.05) regions. The most difficult it is in Chernihiv (1.00),
Zhytomyr (0.91), and Dnipropetrovsk (0.65) regions.
Sector. The food industry (0.06) and the printing and chemical industries (0.17 each) have fewer difficulties
finding skilled workers. It is more difficult to find skilled workers for metalworking (0.50) and production of
construction materials (0.41).
Unskilled workers
Size. Large (0.01) and medium (0.05) enterprises have fewer difficulties finding unskilled labor. Small (0.09) and
micro enterprises (0.11) have slightly more difficulties.
Region. It is easiest to find unskilled workers in Sumy (-0.75), Kyiv (-0.15), and Odesa (-0.12) regions. It is the
most difficult to find unskilled workers in Zhytomyr (0.73), Chernivtsi (0.50), Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv (0.40
each) regions.
Sector. The worst indicators for finding unskilled workers are observed for metalworking (0.36) and
woodworking industry (0.17), and for machine building (-0.03) and chemical industry (-0.10) these indicators are
the lowest.
0,24
0,18
0,06
0,09
0,17
0,11 0,12
-0,01
-0,06 -0,07 -0,07
0,09
0,02
0,05
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22
Skilled workers Unskilled workers

28
SPECIAL PART OF THE SURVEY
THE IMPACT OF WAR ON ENTERPRISES
Challenges for businesses in wartime
In December 2022, the problem of electricity, water, and heat supply outages took first place in the ranking of
obstacles for the surveyed businesses. 80% of businesses reported experiencing this problem caused by Russia's
massive missile attacks. This problem first topped the ranking of obstacles in November 2022, when 78% of the
respondents pointed to it.
Thus, for the second month in a row, the lack of electricity, water, or heat is the biggest obstacle to Ukrainian
enterprises. For comparison, in October 2022 (at the beginning of the Russian shelling of the infrastructure), the
problem of electricity, water, or heat supply outages was indicated by approximately half of the surveyed
businesses (51%), and before this share did not exceed 12%.
The problem of rising prices for raw materials and supplies is in second place in the rating of obstacles in
December 2022. For three months in a row (from October to December 2022), about 70% of enterprises point
to it. In December, this share was 71%. It is more than before September when the increase in the price of raw
materials and supplies was mentioned less often: by less than 63% of respondents.
At the end of 2022, the danger to work associated with the war remained acute for the businesses. 47% of the
surveyed enterprises said that it was unsafe to work. As a result, this problem remained in third place among
obstacles to doing business – as it did in November 2022, when the share of enterprises that said it is unsafe to
work was 46%.
After a gradual decline over the previous three months, the problem of supply chain disruptions has sharpened.
In December, it was cited by 37% of businesses, making it fourth in the ranking of obstacles to doing business. It
broke a downward trend: from September to November 2022, the share of businesses facing it fell from 33% to
21%.
Difficulties transporting raw materials or goods through the territory of Ukraine became the fifth most
significant obstacle to doing business caused by the full-scale Russian invasion. In December 2022, the share of
businesses facing this problem has not changed compared to November and is 33%.
Reducing demand for companies’ products or services has not become less acute. In November 2022 and
December, 30% of surveyed enterprises pointed to it. As a result, the problem of low demand came in sixth
place among obstacles to doing business.
The share of enterprises lacking working capital also remained at the level of the previous month. In December
2022, as in November, 22% of respondents reported a lack of these funds. This problem is in seventh place in
the rating of business obstacles.
Compared to November, the frequency of reports about labor shortage due to conscription and migration of
workers has slightly increased. In December, 19% of enterprises indicated this problem. However, it is
significantly less than in the spring and summer of 2022, when about a third of businesses faced a labor
shortage. The same share of respondents – 19% – named the state regulation of the exchange rate a problem.
These two problems shared the eighth place in the ranking of obstacles.
The rest of the problems – lack of fuel, damage to property or goods due to military actions, and corruption –
were reported by the shares of 4% (for “corruption” and “damage due to hostilities”) to 8% (“lack of fuel”) of
the enterprises. 2% of respondents added their own options for obstacles, among which the most frequently
mentioned are blocking tax invoices and the need for cheap loans – particularly to buy generators. Furthermore,
less than 1% of businesses surveyed in December 2022 said they had not faced any problems.

29
Fig. 24. The most important problems for the surveyed businesses
80%
71%
47%
37%
33%
30%
22%
19%
19%
8%
4%
4%
1%
78%
68%
46%
21%
33%
30%
22%
16%
22%
12%
5%
1%
0%
51%
70%
33%
28%
41%
29%
23%
16%
25%
13%
6%
1%
1%
4%
63%
18%
33%
41%
30%
37%
15%
26%
8%
6%
9%
4%
5%
58%
26%
46%
31%
32%
13%
28%
13%
6%
5%
2%
11%
62%
27%
47%
36%
28%
34%
15%
36%
11%
5%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Interruptions of electricity, water or heat supply
Rising prices for raw materials/goods
It is dangerous to work
Disruption of supply chains
Difficulties with transportation of raw materials/goods
through the territory of Ukraine
Decrease in demand for products/services
Lack of working capital
Lack of personnel due to conscription and/or migration
Government regulation of the exchange rate
Lack of fuel
Damage to property/goods as a result of hostilities
Corruption
There were no problems
Dec.22 Nov.22 Oct.22 Sep.22 Aug.22 Jul.22 Jun.22

30
Challenges for businesses by size. The impact of the two main obstacles – electricity, water, or heat supply
outages and rising prices for raw materials or supplies – does not differ significantly for businesses of different
sizes. However, the larger the size of the surveyed enterprises, the more often they say it is unsafe to work. This
problem was indicated by 21% of micro-enterprises in December 2022, while for small enterprises this share
increases to 47%, and for medium and large enterprises it exceeds 50%.
Also, small, medium, and large-sized enterprises, to a greater extent than micro-enterprises, face difficulties
transporting raw materials or goods through the territory of Ukraine and the labor shortage. Thus, about one-
third of enterprises of all sizes except micro-businesses, where the corresponding share is smaller: 19%, report
difficulties transporting raw materials or goods through the territory of Ukraine. And only 3% of surveyed micro-
enterprises report a labor shortage, while among the rest of the business groups, depending on the size, a fifth
of the enterprises (20% to 22%) face it.
On the other hand, micro-enterprises, more often than larger ones, report a decrease in demand for their
products or services (43%) and a lack of working capital (36%).
Challenges for businesses by sector. Electricity, water, or heat supply outages in December affected all
industries: it was reported by more than 70% of respondents in each sector. As for other problems caused by
the full-scale Russian invasion, there are more significant differences in the assessments of enterprises of
various industries3
. Thus, representatives of the printing industry report rising prices more often than businesses
in other industries (85%). The fact that it is unsafe to work is most often mentioned in the printing industry, light
industry, and food industry (more than 50% of respondents in each industry). The breakdown of supply chains is
most often indicated in the chemical industry (58%), and difficulties with the transportation of raw materials or
goods across the territory of Ukraine are indicated in the machine building industry (49%).
Challenges for businesses by region. Businesses in different areas differ in their assessment of the impact of the
various disruptions to doing business caused by full-scale war4
. Electricity, water, or heat supply outages have
become a significant obstacle to business in most areas covered by this survey. In such regions as Vinnytsya,
Volyn, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhya, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, and Chernivtsi, the shares of
enterprises hindered by the disconnection of communications are as high as 90% to 100%.
All enterprises in Zhytomyr and Poltava regions and more than 90% of enterprises in Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and
Ternopil regions report rising prices for raw materials or supplies. The fact that it is unsafe to work is the most
common in the Ivano-Frankivsk, Poltava, and Ternopil regions (100% of respondents each) and in the Lviv region
(97%). In the Kharkiv region, businesses most often say that it is dangerous to work (100% of enterprises) and
report electricity, water, or heat supply outages (89%).
The war impact on capacity/production volumes
Despite the Russian terrorist attacks, businesses remained resilient to new challenges in December. Only 3%
of surveyed enterprises reported that they stopped their activities during the war in December (almost at the
level of September-November)5
. The share of enterprises operating at less than 25% of pre-war capacity is only
5% in December (for comparison, 6% in September and October and 7% in November). Also, the share of
enterprises that, compared to pre-war volumes, are operating at full capacity and above (3% of enterprises) and
almost at full capacity (44%) remained at the November level. The share of enterprises operating at 50-74%
increased slightly, from 26% in November to 30% in December.
3
This analysis does not consider enterprises in agriculture, construction, trade, and services, and enterprises included in
the category "Other production."
4
Regions in which no enterprises were surveyed are not included in the comparison. In addition, we present data from
the Kharkiv region since this survey was conducted there in December 2022 for the first time since the beginning of the
full-scale Russian invasion, but the number of respondents in this region is insufficient for statistical comparison. For
more details, see the "Sample" section.
5
A significant sample expansion compared to the previous month could also have a minor impact on the results.

31
Thus, in December, the business managed to stabilize the situation. Therefore, in general, only minor changes
were recorded compared to November. In total, 47% of respondents worked at almost full, full, and above full
capacity in November and December. Preservation of production processes even during power cuts, usage of
additional sources of power supply - all this adds to optimism regarding the development of the situation in
January and February (see the section Impact of power supply outages). However, the situation is less optimistic
for certain industries and micro-businesses.
Fig. 25. The impact of war on the enterprises' work (% of respondents)
Results for businesses by size. Throughout the war, micro-businesses remain more sensitive to the negative
impact of war. In November, 16% of micro-businesses did not work (13% in November, 10% in October, 9% in
September, and 16% in August). Micro-enterprises are more sensitive to changes in the business environment,
which is reflected in worse scores for most indicators. For comparison, large and medium-sized businesses have
fully resumed work, and small businesses have almost resumed it (only 3% have not). Business size remains a
significant factor affecting the ability to maintain and resume production in wartime. Micro-businesses also
suffer more from new challenges due to power cuts.
Among medium and large businesses, there remains the largest share of enterprises that maintain production
almost at full and full capacity compared to the pre-war period. This indicator in December is 53% for medium-
sized enterprises. And for large enterprises, it is 48% (at the level of November). Thus, large and medium-sized
entities stabilized the activity at enterprises, although a slight slowdown was observed in October and
November. At the same time, small businesses also slightly improved the situation - the indicator increased from
42% in November to 47% in December. However, the situation worsened in micro-business, where the
corresponding indicator dropped to 21% (32% in November and 24% in October). It may also confirm the
greater impact of power cuts on micro-enterprises (see the section Impact of power cuts).
10% 8%
3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3%
17%
14%
12%
7% 6% 6% 7% 5%
16%
17%
16%
14%
13% 16%
18%
16%
26%
19%
23%
33%
30%
33% 26% 30%
17%
30% 36%
36%
41%
36% 43% 44%
15% 12% 10% 8% 8% 8%
3% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% utilization capacity up to 25% 25%-49% 50%-74% 75%-99% 100% and higher capacity

32
Fig. 26. The share of enterprises operating almost at full and full capacity (75 - 99%, 100%, and more) compared to the pre-war
period (by enterprise size, %)
Results for businesses by sector. The list of recovery industry leaders remains unchanged, although there is a
slight "rotation." If, in November, the printing industry was the leader, then, in December, the food industry
again took the first place. In particular, 63% of food industry enterprises worked at almost full and full capacity
in December, which is five percentage points better than in November. The printing industry ranked second with
54% for the corresponding indicator (75% in November). The light industry took third place with 46% (60% in
November). In general, the situation worsened in all sectors except food and metallurgy. The corresponding
indicator almost halved in the woodworking industry, from 43% to 22%. The situation remains the worst in
metallurgy, in which only 17% of respondents were working at almost full and full capacity (13% in November).
Fig. 27. The share of industrial enterprises operating almost at full and full capacity (75 - 99%, 100% and more) compared to the pre-
war period, % of respondents by sector
Results by region6
. As in the previous survey waves, businesses in the western regions are best able to maintain
and restore production. For example, 100% of enterprises in the Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and Ternopil regions
worked almost at full capacity in November. However, the situation is equalizing between different regions of
Ukraine. Thus, 100% of the representatives of the Poltava region and 97% of the Odesa region worked. The
situation remains difficult in the front-line Zaporizhzhya region, where, as in November, there are no enterprises
with high production volumes compared to the pre-war period. The situation is also hard in Cherkasy (7% at full
and almost full capacity), Sumy (11%), and Kirovohrad (22%) regions and the city of Kyiv (24%).
6
In the Kharkiv region, the number of respondents (fullness of the subsample) is insufficient to analyze the answers to
this question.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%

33
IMPACT OF POWER CUTS
During the eighth wave of the survey, industrial enterprises were asked for the first time to assess the impact of
the power supply outages impact on their operations. The obtained results confirm that the majority of
businesses (86% of enterprises) were forced to temporarily suspend production in November 2022 due to
blackouts, while only 14% of those surveyed did not experience blackouts. In particular, 4% of enterprises
worked all the time during the absence of power. 31% of enterprises did not work 1-10% of working hours. In
addition, 26% of enterprises did not work 11-25% of the time, and 19% - 26-50% of the time. The most critical
situation was in 6% of enterprises that did not work more than half of the time (51-100%) due to power cuts.
On average, businesses lost 21% of their total working hours in November due to power cuts. However, the
situation differs depending on the size of the business, sector, and region.
Fig. 28. The impact of power cuts on the enterprises' work, % of respondents
Results for businesses by size. Microbusinesses were the most affected by Russia's terrorist attacks on the
energy sector. Among micro-enterprises, only 2% did not stop work in November, and 8% did not experience
power cuts. In addition, only 21% of micro-enterprises stopped working for 1-10% of the time. Thus, only a third
of the respondents did not stop working, or the problems were minimal. In contrast, one in two businesses was
not significantly affected by the outages among larger entities. For example, 9% of small enterprises, 20% of
medium, and 15% of large enterprises did not experience outages at all. In addition, only 39% of small
enterprises, 33% of medium, and 24% of large enterprises were forced to stop the production process for 1-10%
of working time.
Micro-businesses were also often forced to stop working for a long time due to power cuts. In particular, 17% of
micro-enterprises did not work 51-100% of the time. At the same time, the corresponding indicator is 5% for
small, 3% for medium, and 7% for large enterprises. Microbusinesses are most sensitive to changes in the
business climate and have less ability to respond to new challenges quickly. As a result, on average, micro-
enterprises lost the most working time - 31% (for comparison, 21% small, 17% medium and 22% large).
6%
19%
26%
31%
4%
14%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
51-100% of working time
0% (worked all the time)
No power cuts

34
Fig. 29. The impact of power cuts on the enterprises' work (by size), % of respondents
Results for businesses by sector. Industries that have shown better resilience during wartime have weathered
blackouts the best. Thus, 33% of food and 15% of printing industry enterprises did not experience outages or
stop working. At the same time, 54% of representatives of the light industry, 46% of the printing industry, and
27% of the food industry stopped working only for a short time (1-10% of working time). In total more than half
of the enterprises had no outages or temporarily stopped work in these sectors. Only 0% of printing and 3% of
food enterprises did not work more than half of the working time.
Fig. 30. The impact of power cuts on the enterprises' work (by industry), % of respondents
2%
9%
20%
15%
8%
1%
4%
5%
21%
39%
33%
24%
19%
21%
26%
33%
33%
24%
14%
16%
17%
5%
3%
7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Micro
Small
Medium
Large
No power cuts 0% (worked all the time) 1-10% of working time
11-25% of working time 26-50% of working time 51-100% of working time
4%
5%
4%
8%
4%
28%
4%
4%
8%
5%
20%
18%
38%
36%
35%
46%
54%
27%
24%
34%
17%
23%
35%
15%
23%
24%
28%
34%
33%
32%
22%
23%
6%
13%
20%
8%
8%
9%
4%
13%
3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Metal production and metalworking
Machine building
Construction materials production
Woodworking
Chemical industry
Printing industry
Light industry
Food industry
No power cuts 0% (worked all the time) 1-10% of working time
11-25% of working time 26-50% of working time 51-100% of working time

35
The situation remained difficult in more energy-intensive industries. Only 18% of machine-building and 20% of
metallurgical enterprises had short-term production stoppages (1-10% of working hours). At the same time, 20%
of enterprises did not work more than 50% of the working time in metallurgy, and another 28% worked 26-50%
of the working time.
As a result, industries that provide the basic needs for the population lost, on average, the least working time
due to power cuts - 15% printing, 18% food, and 19% light industry.
Results for businesses by region. The survey results indicate the regional specificity of the negative impact of
power cuts. The best situation in November was recorded primarily in the west of Ukraine, where 0% of
respondents did not work more than half of the working time (Zakarpattya, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne,
Ternopil, and Chernivtsi regions). At the same time, 95% of enterprises in the Ivano-Frankivsk region worked all
the time or had no outages. The corresponding indicator is also high in Chernivtsi (24%), Lviv (29%), Rivne (45%),
and Ternopil (55%) regions.
The worst situation was recorded in the Kharkiv region, where 25% of enterprises did not work more than half
of the time (51-100%), and 63% did not work 26-50% of the time. A similar situation is the result of numerous
attacks by Russian troops in the Kharkiv region. At the same time, there were also significant problems in the
Khmelnytskyy region, where 48% of enterprises did not work more than half of the time. And 34% of enterprises
did not work 26-50% of the time.
Power outages: ways to solve the problem
Within the survey, respondents were asked for the first time to indicate how they adapt to power cuts. As of the
second half of December 2022, almost three-quarters of enterprises (74%) reported that they had installed
independent sources of electricity supply. So most manufacturing businesses have generators, uninterruptible
power supplies, batteries, etc. Despite such positive dynamics of business preparation, installing additional
power sources is a financial and technical challenge. Some respondents indicate that working on a generator
makes the business unprofitable or that conventional technical means cannot provide sufficient power for large-
scale production (enough only for the office, not workshops).
Fig. 31. How did enterprises deal with power cuts? (% of respondents)7
7
Respondents had the opportunity to choose several answer options, so the sum of answers may exceed 100%.
5%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
4%
5%
6%
7%
24%
57%
74%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Other
Relocated production facilities
Hired new (additional) employees
Installed Starlinks
Cooperated with other enterprises
Organized additional workplaces
Changed portfolio of products
Changed the workplaces' location
Fired or sent employees on vacation
Reequipped workplaces
Changed production processes
Changed the work schedule
Installed backup power sources

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