The survey of Ukrainian businesses found some improvements in January 2023 compared to December 2022. Businesses reported a slowing decline in production and sales. Expectations for production, sales, and orders over the next three months also improved. Debts continued to decline sharply. While employment indicators changed little, businesses expect a slight increase in employment over the next three months. Challenges remain around electricity outages and difficulties exporting, but businesses are adapting by improving backup power sources. Overall assessments of the economic situation and outlook improved slightly.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 13. (05.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the twelfth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for May 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the thirteenth monthly enterprise survey
• Amid the military escalation, business optimism remains quite high, while the long term remains uncertain.
• Assessments of the current financial and economic situation at the enterprise have slightly deteriorated, while assessments of the general economic situation in the country and expectations for the future remained unchanged.
• Uncertainty in the 6- and 3-month perspective has been declining for several months in a row.
• The two-year plans remain vague for business: uncertainty remains high, and, also, the share of enterprises that do not plan changes for such a long term has increased.
• As missile attacks intensified, the importance of "unsafe operation" and "power outages" has again increased slightly for doing business.
• Export activity remains unchanged, which indicates a certain stagnation of export recovery.
• The main challenge for exporters remains logistical problems.
• Economic policy assessments in most cases are neutral and do not change.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 16. (08.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the Sixteenth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for August 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Sixteenth monthly enterprise survey:
• Despite the high level of long-term uncertainty and increased short-term uncertainty, enterprise performance has improved, and expectations remain high and rising again.
• Enterprise results improved compared to previous months, and expectations for production, sales, and exports for three months are rising again.
• The share of enterprises operating at almost full and full capacity remains unchanged (57% in August versus 59% in July).
• "Unsafe to work" and "power outages" remain among the significant obstacles to work.
• The percentage of respondents who cannot decide on an answer has significantly increased in assessments of the government's economic policy.
• "The end of the war" and "a good business climate" are the main expectations of businesses.
For reference: The "field" stage of the survey took place from August 15 to August 31, 2023; telephone interviews were conducted with representatives of 539 enterprises of all sizes located in 21 out of 27 regions of Ukraine.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 15. (07.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the Fifteenth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for June 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey:
In July 2023, for the first time in the last three months, uncertainty in the long term decreased; instead, entrepreneurs became more cautious about the short and medium-term plans, where uncertainty gradually increased for the second month in a row.
Estimates of the current business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment have slightly deteriorated, while expectations remain high.
Compared to the previous months, production indicators slightly worsened, and expectations for three months, while remaining highly positive, tend to stagnate. Despite a slight decrease, the share of enterprises operating at full and near full capacity remains dominant.
The importance of obstacles "unsafe to work" and "power supply cuts" remains significant for every third surveyed enterprise.
Export activity has slowed, although companies have positive expectations for the next three months.
Only a third of enterprises were able to increase the workers' salaries from the beginning of 2023, on average, by 12%.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 12. (04.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the twelfth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for April 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IED) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting” (IED) as part of the project “For Fair and Transparent Customs,” funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the twelfth monthly enterprise survey
In April, enterprises showed their best results for the entire survey period and remained optimistic (albeit somewhat less than before) about the near future. The importance of "unsafe to work" as an obstacle to doing business has decreased. Assessments of the current situation in the country and the business activity at the enterprise have increased, and expectations, while remaining high, have become somewhat more restrained than a month ago. The dynamics of production indicators were the best for the entire survey period. Uncertainty over the six- and three-month horizons continues to decrease (excluding exports and employment). But the longer-term future remains unclear for business: uncertainty over the two-year horizon is hi
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 19. (11.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 19-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for November 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 19-th wave lasted from November 17 to November 30, 2023. In November, 539 companies were surveyed.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in November 2023 with October 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (November 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
Main results of the 19-th monthly enterprise survey:
• The economic recovery rate accelerated again amid the cessation of the downward trend in short-term optimism and the reduction of uncertainty.
• Uncertainty in the 3-month perspective has decreased significantly, and uncertainty in the 2-year perspective, although still high, has also decreased somewhat.
• The rate of business activity recovery compared to the previous year is high and has almost doubled compared to the previous month.
• Industrial confidence indicator increased, production indicators compared to previous months, and expectations for three months remain optimistic.
• The share of enterprises operating at full capacity has increased.
• Rising prices, insecurity, logistical problems, and labor shortages top the list of obstacles.
• The obstacle "unsafe to work" moved from the 3rd to the 2nd position in the list of obstacles.
• Employment indicators showed a seasonal slowdown, while the labor market experienced a shortage of unskilled workers.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 17. (09.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the Seventeenth monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for September 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 534 enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
The field stage of the 17-th wave lasted from September 18 to September 29, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in September 2023 with August 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (September 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one. Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators: output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months.
The special part of the Monthly survey provides information on specific topics. A special part examines the enterprises' problems, the war's impact on production volumes, export activity, basic business needs, and the assessment of government policy.
Main results of the Seventeenth monthly enterprise survey:
• Business expectations in the short term remain high, although the production recovery rate has slowed somewhat (as evidenced by a number of indicators).
• Risks related to war are becoming a significant factor in the business environment: for the first time during the survey, the risk related to war took second place in the rating of obstacles.
• Business relies on itself and needs a friendlier regulatory policy.
• Uncertainty in the long-term horizon is high and unchanged, while uncertainty in the short-term and semi-annual horizons is decreasing.
• Half-yearly expectations regarding the business activity and the overall economic environment remain high and positive.
• Compared to the previous month, production indicators slightly improved, while three-month expectations decreased slightly.
• Businesses still experience difficulties in finding skilled workers and difficulties in finding unskilled workers are gradually decreasing.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 18. (10.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 18-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for October 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
For reference: The field stage of the 18th wave lasted from October 16 to 31, 2023.
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 534 enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
Main results of the 18-th monthly enterprise survey:
• In October 2023, the recovery rate is slowing down, although business optimism for the three- and six-month outlook is high, but has stopped growing in recent months.
• "Unsafe to work" remains among the top 3 obstacles to doing business.
• Uncertainty in the six-month and two-year horizon remains high, and uncertainty in the three-month horizon is increasing.
• The recovery rate of business activity compared to last year remains strong, although the trend to slow down continues.
• The previous month's trend of reduction in production growth rates continued.
• The share of enterprises operating near full and at full capacity increased after three months of decline, and export indicators improved compared to the previous month.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 13. (05.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the twelfth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for May 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the thirteenth monthly enterprise survey
• Amid the military escalation, business optimism remains quite high, while the long term remains uncertain.
• Assessments of the current financial and economic situation at the enterprise have slightly deteriorated, while assessments of the general economic situation in the country and expectations for the future remained unchanged.
• Uncertainty in the 6- and 3-month perspective has been declining for several months in a row.
• The two-year plans remain vague for business: uncertainty remains high, and, also, the share of enterprises that do not plan changes for such a long term has increased.
• As missile attacks intensified, the importance of "unsafe operation" and "power outages" has again increased slightly for doing business.
• Export activity remains unchanged, which indicates a certain stagnation of export recovery.
• The main challenge for exporters remains logistical problems.
• Economic policy assessments in most cases are neutral and do not change.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 16. (08.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the Sixteenth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for August 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Sixteenth monthly enterprise survey:
• Despite the high level of long-term uncertainty and increased short-term uncertainty, enterprise performance has improved, and expectations remain high and rising again.
• Enterprise results improved compared to previous months, and expectations for production, sales, and exports for three months are rising again.
• The share of enterprises operating at almost full and full capacity remains unchanged (57% in August versus 59% in July).
• "Unsafe to work" and "power outages" remain among the significant obstacles to work.
• The percentage of respondents who cannot decide on an answer has significantly increased in assessments of the government's economic policy.
• "The end of the war" and "a good business climate" are the main expectations of businesses.
For reference: The "field" stage of the survey took place from August 15 to August 31, 2023; telephone interviews were conducted with representatives of 539 enterprises of all sizes located in 21 out of 27 regions of Ukraine.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 15. (07.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the Fifteenth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for June 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey:
In July 2023, for the first time in the last three months, uncertainty in the long term decreased; instead, entrepreneurs became more cautious about the short and medium-term plans, where uncertainty gradually increased for the second month in a row.
Estimates of the current business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment have slightly deteriorated, while expectations remain high.
Compared to the previous months, production indicators slightly worsened, and expectations for three months, while remaining highly positive, tend to stagnate. Despite a slight decrease, the share of enterprises operating at full and near full capacity remains dominant.
The importance of obstacles "unsafe to work" and "power supply cuts" remains significant for every third surveyed enterprise.
Export activity has slowed, although companies have positive expectations for the next three months.
Only a third of enterprises were able to increase the workers' salaries from the beginning of 2023, on average, by 12%.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 12. (04.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the twelfth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for April 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IED) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting” (IED) as part of the project “For Fair and Transparent Customs,” funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the twelfth monthly enterprise survey
In April, enterprises showed their best results for the entire survey period and remained optimistic (albeit somewhat less than before) about the near future. The importance of "unsafe to work" as an obstacle to doing business has decreased. Assessments of the current situation in the country and the business activity at the enterprise have increased, and expectations, while remaining high, have become somewhat more restrained than a month ago. The dynamics of production indicators were the best for the entire survey period. Uncertainty over the six- and three-month horizons continues to decrease (excluding exports and employment). But the longer-term future remains unclear for business: uncertainty over the two-year horizon is hi
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 19. (11.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 19-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for November 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 19-th wave lasted from November 17 to November 30, 2023. In November, 539 companies were surveyed.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in November 2023 with October 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (November 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
Main results of the 19-th monthly enterprise survey:
• The economic recovery rate accelerated again amid the cessation of the downward trend in short-term optimism and the reduction of uncertainty.
• Uncertainty in the 3-month perspective has decreased significantly, and uncertainty in the 2-year perspective, although still high, has also decreased somewhat.
• The rate of business activity recovery compared to the previous year is high and has almost doubled compared to the previous month.
• Industrial confidence indicator increased, production indicators compared to previous months, and expectations for three months remain optimistic.
• The share of enterprises operating at full capacity has increased.
• Rising prices, insecurity, logistical problems, and labor shortages top the list of obstacles.
• The obstacle "unsafe to work" moved from the 3rd to the 2nd position in the list of obstacles.
• Employment indicators showed a seasonal slowdown, while the labor market experienced a shortage of unskilled workers.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 17. (09.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the Seventeenth monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for September 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 534 enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
The field stage of the 17-th wave lasted from September 18 to September 29, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in September 2023 with August 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (September 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one. Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators: output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months.
The special part of the Monthly survey provides information on specific topics. A special part examines the enterprises' problems, the war's impact on production volumes, export activity, basic business needs, and the assessment of government policy.
Main results of the Seventeenth monthly enterprise survey:
• Business expectations in the short term remain high, although the production recovery rate has slowed somewhat (as evidenced by a number of indicators).
• Risks related to war are becoming a significant factor in the business environment: for the first time during the survey, the risk related to war took second place in the rating of obstacles.
• Business relies on itself and needs a friendlier regulatory policy.
• Uncertainty in the long-term horizon is high and unchanged, while uncertainty in the short-term and semi-annual horizons is decreasing.
• Half-yearly expectations regarding the business activity and the overall economic environment remain high and positive.
• Compared to the previous month, production indicators slightly improved, while three-month expectations decreased slightly.
• Businesses still experience difficulties in finding skilled workers and difficulties in finding unskilled workers are gradually decreasing.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 18. (10.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 18-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for October 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
For reference: The field stage of the 18th wave lasted from October 16 to 31, 2023.
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 534 enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
Main results of the 18-th monthly enterprise survey:
• In October 2023, the recovery rate is slowing down, although business optimism for the three- and six-month outlook is high, but has stopped growing in recent months.
• "Unsafe to work" remains among the top 3 obstacles to doing business.
• Uncertainty in the six-month and two-year horizon remains high, and uncertainty in the three-month horizon is increasing.
• The recovery rate of business activity compared to last year remains strong, although the trend to slow down continues.
• The previous month's trend of reduction in production growth rates continued.
• The share of enterprises operating near full and at full capacity increased after three months of decline, and export indicators improved compared to the previous month.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 20. (12.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 20-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for December 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 20-th wave lasted from December 13 to December 31, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in December 2023 with November, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (December 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
In December, 535 companies were surveyed.
Main results of the 20-th monthly enterprise survey:
• In December 2023, Ukrainian business considered danger the most acute problem, but entrepreneurs continued to adapt to work in war conditions.
• Despite the deteriorating security situation and high uncertainty affecting long-term plans, businesses are showing resilience by focusing on finding solutions for the present and the near future.
• Business activity recovery index remains high for two months in a row. Production indicators improved in December compared to November.
• Production expectations in the short term are positive but have not been growing for several months.
• Long-term expectations worsened for the first time, although the percentage of "optimists" still outweighs "pessimists."
• Half-yearly expectations regarding the business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment have not changed compared to November, but the annual trend towards a gradual deterioration of the values is recorded.
• Employment indicators continued their seasonally slowing trend, while the labor market experienced a shortage of both unskilled and skilled workers.
• In December, the list of obstacles changed significantly; security issues and "labor shortages" ranked 1st and 2nd, with price increases obtained 3rd place.
• Negative assessments of the government's economic policy decreased, and the percentage of neutral ones increased.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 14. (06.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for June 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey:
• In the short- and medium-term horizon, business remains optimistic, although it refrains from clear forecasts for the distant future, as evidenced by the increase in long-term uncertainty.
• Expectations in the six-month horizon remain very optimistic.
• For the first time in several months, there is a slight increase in uncertainty in the short- and medium-term horizons.
• At the same time, the current situation is characterized as quite positive. The share of businesses operating near full and at full capacity is the highest since the beginning of the war.
• Managers have improved their assessments of the current business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment; the results of the enterprises compared to the previous month have improved, and the expectations for three months are very optimistic. But the "stagnation" of such optimism has been observed for the third month in a row.
• Issues of business security remain in the top 5 obstacles to business operations during wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 21-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for January 2024.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 21-th wave lasted from January 16 to January 31, 2024. The enterprise managers compared the work results in January 2024 with December 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (January 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
In January 2024, 552 companies were surveyed.
Main results of the 21-th monthly enterprise survey:
• In January 2024, long-term expectations are improving, and uncertainty is easing, but the "here and now" recovery is stagnating amid business concerns about security, labor shortages, and demand issues.
• The Business Activity Recovery Index is positive but lower than a month ago.
• The Industrial Confidence Indicator is also positive, but the downward trend continues for the second month in a row.
• Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective has decreased. Uncertainty in the six-month perspective for the business activity continued to decrease gradually and remained unchanged for the overall economic environment. Uncertainty in the 3-month perspective is decreasing (or not increasing) for core expectations, excluding exports.
• Production indicators in January significantly worsened compared to December. At the same time, expectations regarding production in the three months horizon have not changed for the fourth month.
• Employment indicators are declining, and businesses are having trouble finding skilled workers.
• The enterprises' export results have worsened, but the expected changes in the short term remain positive. The share of enterprises operating at full capacity has remained unchanged for the third month in a row.
• The first place in the list of obstacles is shared by "unsafe to work" and "rising prices."
• The main events that businesses are waiting for are the end of the war and the reduction of taxes.
• More than half of the respondents have a neutral assessment of the Government's economic policy.
This paper presents forecasts for the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the period 2015-2015 for six countries in the region, namely the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. It is a continuation of the endeavor to construct synthetic indices measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity for twelve Central and East European countries using the Principal Component Analysis. In order to obtain forecasts of the FSI, we estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) models on monthly data for the period 2001-2012 separately for all the countries. Using quarterly historical values of ESI and FSI, we estimated Dynamic Panel Data Model for the complete sample of countries. Parameters of the model were later used for forecasting the ESI. Obtained results suggest that the FSI will start to rise in 2014 in the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Estonia. For Latvia and Hungary, we observed a conversion in the trend, i.e. at the beginning of 2015, when the index should start to fall. According to our forecasts, the ESI will be rising in the next two years, except for Hungary, where we predict a continuous decrease in economic sensitivity.
Authored by: Maciej Krzak and Grzegorz Poniatowski
Published in 2014
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The impact of innovation on firm performance has been a matter of significant interest to economists and policy makers for decades. Although innovation is generally regarded as a means of improving the competitiveness of firms and their performance on domestic and foreign markets, this relationship has not been supported unambiguously by empirical work. Innovative activities of firms influence their performance not necessarily directly but through the production of useful innovations and increased productivity. Therefore, in recent years, the relationship between innovation and firm performance has been modelled by a multistageapproach. However, the findings from existing studies differ in many respects which suggests that there is the need for further research. In this paper we employ firm level data from the fourth Community Innovation Survey (CIS4), covering some 90,000 firms in 16 West and East European countries in order to assess the drivers of the innovation process in two different institutional settings, a number of mature market economies of WesternEurope and a number of advanced transition economies from Central and Eastern Europe. A four-equation model, originating in the work of Crepon et al., (1998), has been used to linkthe innovation decision of firms to their performance through the impact of innovation input on innovation output and the innovation output on productivity and better performance. Our findings confirm the positive relationship between innovation activities and productivity at the firm level and provide further evidence on the relationship between size and innovation activities.
Authored by: Iraj Hashi, Nebojsa Stojcic
Published in 2010
The projection examines impact of demographic changes and changes in health status on future (up to 2050) health expenditures. Next to it, future changes in the labour market participation and their imact on the health care system revenues are examined. Results indicate that due to demographic pressures health expenditures will increase in the next 40 years and health care systems in the NMS will face deficit. Moreover, health revenues, expenditures and deficit/surplus are slightly sensitive to possible labour market changes. Health care system reforms are required in order to balance the disequilibrium of revenues and expenditures caused by external factors (demographic and economic), and decrease the premium needed to cover expenditures. Such reforms should lead, on the one hand, to the rationing of medical services covered by public resources, and on the other, to more effective governance and management of the sector and within the sector.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska, Ewa Kocot, Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2008
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
Резюме
• Темпи зростання реального ВВП сповільнились через проблеми з доступом до електроенергії внаслідок руйнування маневреної генерації електроенергії російськими дронами та ракетами.
• Експорт та імпорт продовжили зростати завдяки ліпшій логістиці як Українським морським коридором, так і автомобільним транспортом. Зокрема, польські фермери та перевізники припинили блокування кордонів в кінці квітня.
• В квітні як податкова, так і митна служби перевиконали розпис доходів, тоді як НБУ перерахував до бюджету вдвічі більше прибутків.
• Європейська сторона схвалила План України, який було ухвалено урядом для визначення індикаторів у межах Механізму для України (Ukraine facility). Це дозволить в травні отримати 1,9 млрд євро позики від ЄС. При цьому ЄС вже надав Україні 1,5 млрд євро позики в квітні, оскільки уряд вже виконав п’ять індикаторів за Планом України.
• США нарешті схвалили пакет допомоги Україні, в якому 7,8 млрд дол. США передбачено на бюджетну підтримку: однак умови та час надання допомоги досі невідомі.
• У квітні, як і у березні, річна споживча інфляція склала 3,2% дпр.
• НБУ на квітневому засідання з монетарної політики знову знизив облікову ставку з 14,5% до 13,5% річних.
• За останні чотири тижні курс гривні стабілізувався у проміжку 39-40 грн за дол. США.
ІЕД готує публікацію Макроекономічного моніторингу України за фінансової підтримки Європейського Союзу в рамках проєкту «Економіка України під час війни та підтримка українців, постраждалих від війни».
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 20. (12.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 20-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for December 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 20-th wave lasted from December 13 to December 31, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in December 2023 with November, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (December 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
In December, 535 companies were surveyed.
Main results of the 20-th monthly enterprise survey:
• In December 2023, Ukrainian business considered danger the most acute problem, but entrepreneurs continued to adapt to work in war conditions.
• Despite the deteriorating security situation and high uncertainty affecting long-term plans, businesses are showing resilience by focusing on finding solutions for the present and the near future.
• Business activity recovery index remains high for two months in a row. Production indicators improved in December compared to November.
• Production expectations in the short term are positive but have not been growing for several months.
• Long-term expectations worsened for the first time, although the percentage of "optimists" still outweighs "pessimists."
• Half-yearly expectations regarding the business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment have not changed compared to November, but the annual trend towards a gradual deterioration of the values is recorded.
• Employment indicators continued their seasonally slowing trend, while the labor market experienced a shortage of both unskilled and skilled workers.
• In December, the list of obstacles changed significantly; security issues and "labor shortages" ranked 1st and 2nd, with price increases obtained 3rd place.
• Negative assessments of the government's economic policy decreased, and the percentage of neutral ones increased.
New Monthly Enterprises Survey. Issue 14. (06.2023) Ukrainian Business in Wartime
IER released the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey "Ukrainian business in wartime" for June 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting" (IER) as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs," funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey:
• In the short- and medium-term horizon, business remains optimistic, although it refrains from clear forecasts for the distant future, as evidenced by the increase in long-term uncertainty.
• Expectations in the six-month horizon remain very optimistic.
• For the first time in several months, there is a slight increase in uncertainty in the short- and medium-term horizons.
• At the same time, the current situation is characterized as quite positive. The share of businesses operating near full and at full capacity is the highest since the beginning of the war.
• Managers have improved their assessments of the current business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment; the results of the enterprises compared to the previous month have improved, and the expectations for three months are very optimistic. But the "stagnation" of such optimism has been observed for the third month in a row.
• Issues of business security remain in the top 5 obstacles to business operations during wartime
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 21-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for January 2024.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 21-th wave lasted from January 16 to January 31, 2024. The enterprise managers compared the work results in January 2024 with December 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (January 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
In January 2024, 552 companies were surveyed.
Main results of the 21-th monthly enterprise survey:
• In January 2024, long-term expectations are improving, and uncertainty is easing, but the "here and now" recovery is stagnating amid business concerns about security, labor shortages, and demand issues.
• The Business Activity Recovery Index is positive but lower than a month ago.
• The Industrial Confidence Indicator is also positive, but the downward trend continues for the second month in a row.
• Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective has decreased. Uncertainty in the six-month perspective for the business activity continued to decrease gradually and remained unchanged for the overall economic environment. Uncertainty in the 3-month perspective is decreasing (or not increasing) for core expectations, excluding exports.
• Production indicators in January significantly worsened compared to December. At the same time, expectations regarding production in the three months horizon have not changed for the fourth month.
• Employment indicators are declining, and businesses are having trouble finding skilled workers.
• The enterprises' export results have worsened, but the expected changes in the short term remain positive. The share of enterprises operating at full capacity has remained unchanged for the third month in a row.
• The first place in the list of obstacles is shared by "unsafe to work" and "rising prices."
• The main events that businesses are waiting for are the end of the war and the reduction of taxes.
• More than half of the respondents have a neutral assessment of the Government's economic policy.
This paper presents forecasts for the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the period 2015-2015 for six countries in the region, namely the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. It is a continuation of the endeavor to construct synthetic indices measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity for twelve Central and East European countries using the Principal Component Analysis. In order to obtain forecasts of the FSI, we estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) models on monthly data for the period 2001-2012 separately for all the countries. Using quarterly historical values of ESI and FSI, we estimated Dynamic Panel Data Model for the complete sample of countries. Parameters of the model were later used for forecasting the ESI. Obtained results suggest that the FSI will start to rise in 2014 in the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Estonia. For Latvia and Hungary, we observed a conversion in the trend, i.e. at the beginning of 2015, when the index should start to fall. According to our forecasts, the ESI will be rising in the next two years, except for Hungary, where we predict a continuous decrease in economic sensitivity.
Authored by: Maciej Krzak and Grzegorz Poniatowski
Published in 2014
Summer Training Report on Fundamental AnalysisFellowBuddy.com
FellowBuddy.com is an innovative platform that brings students together to share notes, exam papers, study guides, project reports and presentation for upcoming exams.
We connect Students who have an understanding of course material with Students who need help.
Benefits:-
# Students can catch up on notes they missed because of an absence.
# Underachievers can find peer developed notes that break down lecture and study material in a way that they can understand
# Students can earn better grades, save time and study effectively
Our Vision & Mission – Simplifying Students Life
Our Belief – “The great breakthrough in your life comes when you realize it, that you can learn anything you need to learn; to accomplish any goal that you have set for yourself. This means there are no limits on what you can be, have or do.”
Like Us - https://www.facebook.com/FellowBuddycom
The impact of innovation on firm performance has been a matter of significant interest to economists and policy makers for decades. Although innovation is generally regarded as a means of improving the competitiveness of firms and their performance on domestic and foreign markets, this relationship has not been supported unambiguously by empirical work. Innovative activities of firms influence their performance not necessarily directly but through the production of useful innovations and increased productivity. Therefore, in recent years, the relationship between innovation and firm performance has been modelled by a multistageapproach. However, the findings from existing studies differ in many respects which suggests that there is the need for further research. In this paper we employ firm level data from the fourth Community Innovation Survey (CIS4), covering some 90,000 firms in 16 West and East European countries in order to assess the drivers of the innovation process in two different institutional settings, a number of mature market economies of WesternEurope and a number of advanced transition economies from Central and Eastern Europe. A four-equation model, originating in the work of Crepon et al., (1998), has been used to linkthe innovation decision of firms to their performance through the impact of innovation input on innovation output and the innovation output on productivity and better performance. Our findings confirm the positive relationship between innovation activities and productivity at the firm level and provide further evidence on the relationship between size and innovation activities.
Authored by: Iraj Hashi, Nebojsa Stojcic
Published in 2010
The projection examines impact of demographic changes and changes in health status on future (up to 2050) health expenditures. Next to it, future changes in the labour market participation and their imact on the health care system revenues are examined. Results indicate that due to demographic pressures health expenditures will increase in the next 40 years and health care systems in the NMS will face deficit. Moreover, health revenues, expenditures and deficit/surplus are slightly sensitive to possible labour market changes. Health care system reforms are required in order to balance the disequilibrium of revenues and expenditures caused by external factors (demographic and economic), and decrease the premium needed to cover expenditures. Such reforms should lead, on the one hand, to the rationing of medical services covered by public resources, and on the other, to more effective governance and management of the sector and within the sector.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska, Ewa Kocot, Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2008
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
Резюме
• Темпи зростання реального ВВП сповільнились через проблеми з доступом до електроенергії внаслідок руйнування маневреної генерації електроенергії російськими дронами та ракетами.
• Експорт та імпорт продовжили зростати завдяки ліпшій логістиці як Українським морським коридором, так і автомобільним транспортом. Зокрема, польські фермери та перевізники припинили блокування кордонів в кінці квітня.
• В квітні як податкова, так і митна служби перевиконали розпис доходів, тоді як НБУ перерахував до бюджету вдвічі більше прибутків.
• Європейська сторона схвалила План України, який було ухвалено урядом для визначення індикаторів у межах Механізму для України (Ukraine facility). Це дозволить в травні отримати 1,9 млрд євро позики від ЄС. При цьому ЄС вже надав Україні 1,5 млрд євро позики в квітні, оскільки уряд вже виконав п’ять індикаторів за Планом України.
• США нарешті схвалили пакет допомоги Україні, в якому 7,8 млрд дол. США передбачено на бюджетну підтримку: однак умови та час надання допомоги досі невідомі.
• У квітні, як і у березні, річна споживча інфляція склала 3,2% дпр.
• НБУ на квітневому засідання з монетарної політики знову знизив облікову ставку з 14,5% до 13,5% річних.
• За останні чотири тижні курс гривні стабілізувався у проміжку 39-40 грн за дол. США.
ІЕД готує публікацію Макроекономічного моніторингу України за фінансової підтримки Європейського Союзу в рамках проєкту «Економіка України під час війни та підтримка українців, постраждалих від війни».
Вперше за два роки відсоток українського бізнесу, який вважає небезпеку найбільшою перешкодою для ділової активності, досяг 55%. Про це свідчать результати щомісячного опитування підприємств New Monthly Enterprises Survey (#NRES), яке Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій провів у квітні 2024-го.
Частка підприємств, які повідомили, що працювати небезпечно, суттєво зросла, збільшившись із 46% до 55%. Це найвищий показник за весь період досліджень з травня 2022-го з травня 2022-го. Ця перешкода для ведення бізнесу стала головною у квітні для українських підприємств.
Водночас зростають позитивні очікування бізнесу щодо 6-місячної перспективи: як щодо фінансово-економічної ситуації на підприємстві, так і стосовно загально-економічного середовище в країні. Оцінка ситуації за цими двома параметрами позитивна вже другий місяць поспіль.
«Зважаючи на складну безпекову ситуацію, можна було б очікувати песимістичні настрої бізнесу, але насправді вийшло навпаки. Ми стикнулися з небувалим оптимізмом щодо бачення фінансово-економічної ситуації на підприємстві та в країні в цілому в піврічній перспективі. Невизначеність піврічної перспективи діяльності підприємств задекларували 20% опитаних компаній – і це можна вважати базовим рівнем. Продовжується тренд щодо зміцнення визначеності стосовно подальшої роботи підприємства у довгостроковій, тобто дворічній перспективі. При цьому ускладнюється ситуація з пошуком працівників – як кваліфікованих, так і некваліфікованих. Тренд щодо зростання цих труднощів спостерігаємо з вересня 2023 року», - зазначила виконавча директорка ІЕД Оксана Кузяків.
Так, частка підприємств, яким стало складніше знайти кваліфікованих працівників зросла з 38,9% у березні до 43 % у квітні. Аналогічний показник щодо некваліфікованої робочої сили зріс із 31,7% у березні до 36,6% у квітні.
Рейтинг перешкод для бізнесу суттєвих змін не зазнав, змінилося ранжування.
«Три головні перешкоди для ведення підприємницької діяльності залишилися такими ж, як минулого місяця, але у квітні «лідером» стала небезпека працювати (55% опитаних), на другому місці – зростання цін на сировину, матеріали, товари (51%), на третьому - брак робочої сили (43%). Значення небезпеки для роботи значно зросло для великого та середнього бізнесу. Дещо інша картина у розрізі перешкод для зростання бізнесу в контексті довгострокових тенденцій. Так, серед перешкод для зростання виробництва у квітні 2024 року найчастіше називали війну та несприятливу безпекову ситуацію. Наступними йшли, відповідно, низький попит, несприятлива політична ситуація та брак кваліфікованих працівників», - зазначив експерт ІЕД Євген Ангел.
Дисклеймер:
У щомісячному опитуванні Інституту економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій беруть участь понад 500 українських промислових підприємств, що розташовані у 21 із 27 областей України. Опитування у даному форматі проводиться з травня 2022 року. Польовий етап 23-ї хвилі дослідження тривав з 15 по 30 квітня 2024 року.
Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (ІЕД) випустив 23-тє Щомісячне опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» за березень 2024 року.
Метою проєкту є швидкий збір інформації про поточний стан економіки на рівні підприємства.
Польовий етап опитування тривав з 18 по 29 березня 2024 року.
Усього в 23й хвилі було опитано 523 підприємства. Підприємства розташовані у Вінницькій, Волинській, Дніпропетровській, Закарпатській, Запорізькій, Житомирській, Івано-Франківській, Київській, Кіровоградській, Львівській, Одеській, Полтавській, Рівненській, Сумській, Тернопільській, Харківській, Хмельницькій, Черкаській, Чернівецькій, Чернігівській областях та в місті Києві.
Ключові результати 23-го щомісячного опитування підприємств:
• Дворічна невизначеність зараз знаходиться на найнижчій точці за два роки з покращеними найближчими очікуваннями виробництва, але коротко- та середньострокова невизначеність зросла.
• Індекс Відновлення Ділової Активності та Агрегований Показник Перспектив Промисловості зростають, водночас, відсоток підприємств, що працюють на повну потужність, залишається без суттєвих змін.
• Шестимісячні очікування щодо фінансово-економічної активності підприємств та загальноекономічного середовища покращились, а виробничі показники два місяці поспіль покращуються.
• Результати роботи підприємств з експорту та очікування в тримісячній перспективі покращились.
• Разом із цим, зростають труднощі з пошуком працівників потрібної кваліфікації, брак кваліфікованих працівників посідає 2-ге місце в рейтингу перешкод із найвищим значенням від травня 2022 року.
• Після обстрілів енергетичної інфраструктури значення перешкоди «перебої з електрикою» суттєво зросло, а «небезпечно працювати» залишається без суттєвих змін.
• Оцінки економічної політики уряду залишаються переважно нейтральними.
Summary
• Businesses faced problems with access to electricity due to the russian shelling of energy facilities. This restrained GDP growth.
• Transportation by railway and through the Ukrainian Sea Corridor is growing, contributing to the development of several sectors of the economy.
• The value of goods exports declined sharply in March on a year-on-year basis amid continued decline in grain and iron ore prices.
• In March, a record external financing of USD 9 bn was received. Half the funds came from the EU as bridge financing under the Facility for Ukraine.
• The Government approved the Ukraine Plan, which defines priority steps and measures, the implementation of which should become the basis for the EU budget support.
• State fiscal revenues continued to grow, partly due to the windfall taxation of banks' profits.
• Inflation slowed to 3.2% yoy in March. Inflation was last at this level in the COVID year of 2020 and before the start of the russian aggression in 2014.
• The NBU lowered the policy rate to 14.5% p.a. in response to the low inflation and the resumption of aid from donors to Ukraine. However, the NBU moved cautiously as the Ukrainian economy faces serious risks.
• The hryvnia weakened to UAH 39 per USD as the NBU paced its support.
Резюме
• Підприємства стикнулись із обмеженнями у на постачання електроенергії внаслідок російських обстрілів енергетичних об’єктів. Це стримувало приріст ВВП.
• Транспортні перевезення Укрзалізницею та через Український морський коридор зростають, що сприяє розвитку ряду секторів економіки.
• Вартість товарного експорту різко скоротилась у березні у вимірі рік до року на тлі продовження зниження цін на зерно та залізні руди.
• В березні надійшло рекордне зовнішнє фінансування у сумі 9 млрд дол. США. Половина коштів надійшла від ЄС в межах перехідного фінансування за Механізмом для України.
• Уряд ухвалив План України, який визначає пріоритетні кроки та заходи, виконання яких має стати основою для надання бюджетної підтримки з боку ЄС.
• Доходи Державного бюджету продовжують зростати, частково завдяки оподаткуванню надприбутків банків.
• В березні інфляція сповільнилась до 3,2% дпр. До цього інфляція була на такому рівні у ковідному 2020 році та до початку російської агресії у 2014 році.
• НБУ знизив ставку до 14,5% річних на фоні низької інфляції та відновлення надходження допомоги від донорів України. Втім, НБУ рухався обережно через значні ризики.
• Гривня ослабла до 39 грн за дол. США на фоні стриманих інтервенцій НБУ.
Бізнес оптимістичніше дивиться у майбутнє, виробничі показники другий місяць поспіль покращуються, кількість працівників на підприємствах продовжує зростати. Водночас ускладнився пошук працівників та стало більше проблем з електропостачанням.
Такі висновки можна зробити з щомісячного опитування підприємств New Monthly Enterprises Survey (#NRES), яке Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій провів у березні 2024-го.
Основні результати спостережень
У березні частка компаній, що не можуть передбачити свою діяльність на наступні два роки, опустилась нижче 40% (до 39,4%). Тобто частка тих, хто планує свою діяльність у дворічній перспективі, збільшилась до 60,6%. Це найкращий показник з початку проведення щомісячних опитувань бізнесу під час війни – тобто з жовтня 2022.
У березні дещо зріс Індекс Відновлення Ділової Активності (ІВДА) - із 0,34 до 0,37 (за шкалою від -1 до +1). Частка підприємств, які повідомили, що їх ділова активність краща, ніж у попередньому році, збільшилась із 44,8% у лютому до 47,4% у березні. Показник ІВДА корелює із розміром підприємств. У березні значення ІВДА суттєво не змінилось і є найнижчим для мікропідприємств та поступово зменшується для малих. Водночас показник для середніх та великих підприємств збільшився.
Виробничі показники другий місяць поспіль покращуються, очікування щодо виробництва в перспективі на 3 місяці покращились. Частка підприємств, які планують зростання виробництва в найближчі 3-4 місяці, зросла із 43,8% до 54,4%.
“Дані, які ми отримали в ході березневого опитування, дають підстави говорити про весняне пробудження українського бізнесу. Минулого місяця невизначеність бізнесу на дворічну перспективу стала найнижчою за останні півтора роки, тобто з початку наших спостережень у жовтні 2022 року. На фоні цього ми спостерігали покращення короткострокових очікувань бізнесу щодо завантаженості власних потужностей, наявності клієнтів тощо, але разом з тим — і деяке зростання середньострокової та короткострокової невизначеності”, — зазначила Оксана Кузяків, виконавча директорка ІЕД.
Кількість працівників на підприємствах продовжує зростати одночасно зі зростанням труднощів у пошуку працівників необхідної кваліфікації.
“Результати опитування відображають складну ситуацію щодо доступу бізнесу до робочої сили. Фактично вперше половина українського підприємництва вказує про те, що це є суттєвою перешкодою. Наприклад, у 2022 році про це говорили лише близько 20% опитаних, минулого року ця перешкода трохи актуалізувалася і про неї вказувало близько третини опитаних. Але під кінець 2023 року ця перешкода в них опитуваннях почала постійно зростати”, - пояснив Євген Ангел, старший науковий співробітник ІЕД.
22-ге Щомісячне опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» (лютий 2024)
Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (ІЕД) випустив 22-ге Щомісячне опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» за лютий 2024 року.
Метою проєкту є швидкий збір інформації про поточний стан економіки на рівні підприємства.
Польовий етап опитування тривав з 19 до 29 лютого 2024 року..
Усього в 22й хвилі було опитано 542 підприємства. Підприємства розташовані у Вінницькій, Волинській, Дніпропетровській, Закарпатській, Запорізькій, Житомирській, Івано-Франківській, Київській, Кіровоградській, Львівській, Одеській, Полтавській, Рівненській, Сумській, Тернопільській, Харківській, Хмельницькій, Черкаській, Чернівецькій, Чернігівській областях та в місті Києві.
Ключові результати 22-го щомісячного опитування підприємств:
• У лютому 2024 року на тлі покращення короткострокових очікувань і традиційно високого рівня дворічної невизначеності дефіцит працівників став однією з ключових перешкод для розвитку бізнесу.
• Агрегований показник перспектив промисловості зріс, як і частка підприємств, що працюють на повну потужність.
• Водночас Індекс Відновлення Ділової Активності зменшується вже другий місяць поспіль.
• Невизначеність залишається високою у довгостроковій перспективі, та зросла для загальноекономічного середовища у піврічній перспективі.
• Очікування бізнесу на дворічну та піврічну перспективи залишаються без суттєвих змін.
• Виробничі показники та очікування на три місяці покращились, водночас очікування щодо експорту залишаються без змін.
• Незначною мірою зросла частка підприємств, які працюють на повну потужність порівняно з довоєнним періодом.
• Вперше за кілька місяців перервалась тенденція до скорочення кількості працівників, проте брак робочої сили як перешкода у веденні бізнесу займає другу позицію рейтингу перешкод ведення бізнесу, а проблеми із пошуком працівників залишились без змін порівняно до попереднього місяця.
• «Небезпечно працювати» хоча і не змінилась суттєво у відсотковому значенні, проте опустилась з першого на третє місце у рейтингу перешкод.
• Продовжується стагнація відновлення експортної діяльності.
• Відсоток негативних оцінок державної політики незначним чином зріс.
Resume
• According to the IER, real GDP growth accelerated to 5.6% yoy (year-on-year) in February 2024 from 3.1% yoy in January, partly due to the calendar effect.
• The power system survived the winter: the use of coal from thermal power plants and nuclear reactors increased. During this heating season, Ukraine used only gas of its own production for the first time in its history.
• Sea and rail transport had record performance against the backdrop of the blockade of the Polish border for trucks: 8 million tons and 14.6 million tons, respectively.
• According to preliminary customs estimates, trade in goods in February remained at the level of January 2024.
• State Budget revenues increased in February due to advance payment of dividends by state-owned banks and enterprises.
• In February, international financial assistance remained low, but we expect EUR 4.5 bn of bridge financing from the EU under the Ukraine Facility in March.
• Consumer inflation decelerated further to 4.3% yoy in February due to moderate growth in consumer demand and lower global commodity prices.
• Hryvnia remained stable for most of the first quarter of 2024, likely due to lower demand for foreign currency, including cash.
Резюме
• За оцінкою ІЕД темпи приросту реального ВВП прискорились до 5,6% дпр (до попереднього року) в лютому 2024 року з 3,1% дпр в січні частково через календарний ефект.
• Енергосистема витримала зиму: збільшилось використання вугілля ТЕС, а також атомних реакторів. В цьому опалювальному сезоні Україна вперше використовувала газ лише власного видобутку.
• На фоні блокади польського кордону для вантажівок морський та залізничний види транспорту б’ють рекорди з перевезень: 8 млн т та 14,6 млн т відповідно.
• За попередніми оцінками митниці, показники торгівлі товарами у лютому залишились на рівні січня 2024 року.
• Доходи Держбюджету в лютому зросли через авансову сплату дивідендів державними банками та підприємствами.
• Міжнародна фінансова допомога залишилась низькою в лютому, але вже в березні очікуємо 4,5 млрд євро перехідного фінансування від ЄС в межах Механізму для України.
• В лютому споживча інфляція надалі сповільнилась до 4,3% дпр на фоні помірного зростання споживчого попиту та зниження світових цін на сировину.
• Гривня залишалась стабільною протягом (більшості) першого кварталу 2024 року ймовірно через нижчий попит на іноземну валюту в тому числі готівкову.
ГО «Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій» (ІЕД) в рамках співпраці з регіонами підготував спеціальний звіт «Бізнес під час війни: Черкаська область» (грудень 2023).
Команда ІЕД зробила моніторинг економічної ситуації в Черкаській області в співпраці з Черкаською обласною державною адміністрацією. На основі Нового щомісячного опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» експерти ІЕД підготували шостий випуск дослідження для Черкаської області.
Щомісячне опитування підприємств проводиться за допомогою поєднання декількох методів збору даних: самостійне заповнення онлайн-форми та особисте опитування представників бізнесу із внесенням відповідей до онлайн-форми.
Польовий етап опитування тривав із 13 до 31 грудня 2023 року.
У листопаді 2023 року у Черкаській області було опитано 30 підприємств.
Серед них представлені підприємства від мікро до великого розмірів (найчастіше – середні). Усі опитані підприємства – промислові. Серед них найбільшу частку складають підприємства харчової промисловості.
Основне з дослідження:
• У грудні 2023 року керівники підприємств Черкаської області оцінюють власну фінансово-економічну ситуацію гірше, ніж загалом по країн.
• Спостерігається погіршення оцінок загальноекономічного середовища.
• Прогнози на піврічну перспективу щодо фінансово-економічної ситуації та загальноекономічного середовища, хоча і залишаються гіршими, ніж загалом по країні, але без суттєвих змін.
• При цьому, підприємці області утримуються від прогнозів на дворічну перспективу, тоді як загальноукраїнський показник довгострокових очікувань погіршився.
• Результати виробництва покращились і для регіону, і загалом по країні.
• На підприємствах Черкаської області відчувають незначні труднощі у пошуку кваліфікованих працівників, тоді як загалом по Україні збільшились труднощі і для кваліфікованих, і для некваліфікованих працівників.
ГО «Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій» (ІЕД) продовжує багаторічну роботу з українськими регіонами.
На основі Нового щомісячного опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» експерти ІЕД підготували черговий випуск дослідження для Київської області «Бізнес Київської області під час війни» за грудень 2023.
Польовий етап опитування тривав із 13 до 31 грудня 2023 року.
У грудні 2023 року в Київській області було опитано 21 підприємство. Серед них представлені підприємства від малого до великого розміру (найчастіше – великі). Усі опитані підприємства – промислові. Серед них найбільшу частку складають підприємства харчової промисловості.
Основне з дослідження:
• У грудні 2023 року оцінки підприємців Київської області щодо фінансово-економічної ситуації суттєво не змінились порівняно з листопадом, проте спостерігається поступове погіршення очікувань на піврічну перспективу.
• Оцінки та очікування щодо загальноекономічної ситуації по області поступово погіршуються, на відміну від загальноукраїнських значень, за якими суттєвих змін не відбувається.
• Динаміка відновлення в порівнянні з аналогічним періодом минулого року для області погіршилась, тоді як загалом по країні змін не відбулось.
• Очікування щодо дворічних перспектив погіршились як загалом по країні, так і для області.
• На відміну від загальноукраїнських показників, за якими спостерігається незначне покращення виробничих результатів та відсутні різкі зміни щодо очікувань на короткострокову перспективу, по області погіршились як показники результатів, так і очікування.
• Темпи скорочення зайнятості прискорились як по області, так і загалом по країні. Водночас, підприємці Київщини не відчувають труднощів у пошуку кваліфікованих або некваліфікованих працівників.
• На підприємствах Київської області рівень завантаження потужностей вищий ніж в цілому по Україні.
Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (ІЕД) випустив 21-ше Щомісячне опитування підприємств «Український бізнес під час війни» за січень 2024 року.
Метою проєкту є швидкий збір інформації про поточний стан економіки на рівні підприємства.
Польовий етап опитування тривав з 16 по 31 січня, 2024 року.
Усього в 21й хвилі було опитано 552 підприємства. Підприємства розташовані у Вінницькій, Волинській, Дніпропетровській, Закарпатській, Запорізькій, Житомирській, Івано-Франківській, Київській, Кіровоградській, Львівській, Одеській, Полтавській, Рівненській, Сумській, Тернопільській, Харківській, Хмельницькій, Черкаській, Чернівецькій, Чернігівській областях та в місті Києві.
Ключові результати 21го щомісячного опитування підприємств:
• У січні 2024 довгострокові очікування покращуються, невизначеність зменшується, але відновлення «тут та тепер» стагнує на фоні занепокоєнь бізнесу щодо безпеки, браку працівників та проблем із попитом.
• Індекс Відновлення Ділової Активності додатний, але менший ніж місяць тому. Агрегований показник перспектив промисловості також додатний, але два місяці поспіль триває тренд до зменшення.
• Невизначеність у дворічній перспективі знизилася.
• Невизначеність у піврічній перспективі для фінансово-економічної ситуації продовжує поступово зменшуватись та залишається без змін для загально-економічного середовища.
• Невизначеність у тримісячній перспективі зменшується (або не зростає) для основних очікувань, за винятком експорту.
• Виробничі показники в січні порівняно з груднем значно погіршилися, водночас, очікування щодо виробництва в перспективі на три місяці не змінюються вже чотири місяці.
• Показники зайнятості знижуються, а бізнес має проблеми з пошуком кваліфікованих працівників.
• Результати роботи підприємств з експорту погіршилися, але очікувані зміни в короткостроковій перспективі залишаються позитивними.
• Частка підприємств, що працюють на повну потужність, три місяці поспіль залишається без суттєвих змін.
• Перше місце в списку перешкод ділять перешкоди «працювати небезпечно» та «зростання цін».
• Головні події, на які очікує бізнес, - завершення війни та зниження податків.
• Більше половини опитаних нейтрально оцінюють економічну політику уряду.
Період моніторингу: з 1 січня по 15 лютого 2024 року
У цьому випуску:
Парламент погодив норми Податкового кодексу України з Митним тарифом України
Уряд вніс технічні зміни до переліків товарів, експорт та імпорт яких підлягає ліцензуванню, та квот на 2024 рік
Держмитслужба затвердила формат обміну даними з магазинами безмитної торгівлі
Підготовлено чергові зміни до Митного кодексу України в контексті його наближення до норм ЄС
Держмитслужба разом із молдовськими колегами запустила спільний контроль у п/п “Кучурган-Новосавицьке” для залізничного сполучення
Держмитслужба розпочала пілотний проєкт щодо здійснення постмитного контролю
На порталі «Єдине вікно для міжнародної торгівлі» додано можливість перегляду митної декларації в актуальному стані - із урахуванням коригувань
На двох митних постах – «Ужгород-автомобільний» і «Астей» Закарпатської митниці - буде встановлено сучасні модульні конструкції
Одним з пріоритетів у повоєнній відбудові України повинна стати безбар’єрність, адже в результаті війни суттєво зростає кількість осіб з інвалідністю - впевнена Олександра Бетлій, провідна наукова співробітниця Інституту економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (ІЕД). Своє бачення майбутньої безбар’єрної України вона представила під час обговорення лютневого моніторингу “Контролю витрат на відновлення України” консорціуму RISE, в який входить ІЕД.
Як пояснює Бетлій, наразі лише 22% обстежених Мінсоцполітики адміністратвних будівель є доступними, ще 32% – частково доступними. Найкраща ситуація — у ЦНАПах та закладах охорони здоров’я. Найгірша — у будинках, де розташовані органи держвлади.
На думку експертки, для покращення ситуації важливо ухвалити Національну стратегію зі створення безбар’єрного простору в Україні на період до 2030 року. Ця стратегія має на меті сформувати загальний підхід до формування та імплементації державної політики для забезпечення безперешкодного доступу всіх груп населення до різних сфер життєдіяльності.
Також, як вважає Бетлій, надзвичайно важливим є підвищення обізнаності о принципах безбар’єрності на місцях. Місцеві органи влади повинні включати принципи безбар’єрності при підготовці планів та програм відновлення. А громадська ініціатива спонукати чиновників швидше впроваджувати зміни. Крім того, потрібна подальша зміна будівельних стандартів та їх гармонізація з правилами ЄС.
Загалом, як витікає з оприлюдненої 15 лютого третьої редакції звіту про потреби відновлення України (RDNA-3), який відображає узгоджені оцінки Світового банку, ЄС та ООН загальна сума прямих збитків України внаслідок російської агресії становить $152,5 млрд, а потреби коштів на відновлення – $486 млрд. Звіт охоплює період з 24 лютого 2022-го по 31 грудня 2023-го.
Оцінка потреб у відновленні на 2024 рік становить $15 млрд, або 2% від загальних потреб. Втім, навіть за таких цифр у 2024 році брак фінансування становить $9,5 млрд, чи 62% від необхідного обсягу.
Дискусію можна подивитися на YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLtuUJpz2kg
Long-term prospects are on the rise, and uncertainty is gradually subsiding. However, the current recovery is at a standstill, plagued by business apprehensions regarding security, labor shortages, and demand issues. This encapsulates the sentiment among businesses in January 2024, as revealed by the research conducted by the IER team as part of the 21st #NRES monthly enterprise survey.
Of the surveyed enterprises, 56% reported that 2023 met their expectations, with 8% even surpassing expectations. Notably, there's a correlation between meeting 2023 expectations and enterprise size, with 77% of large enterprises reporting meeting or exceeding expectations compared to only 54% among micro-businesses.
"The results we obtained are quite optimistic. Given the turbulence experienced by Ukrainian businesses in 2023, I didn't expect to see such figures. It indicates that most enterprises are realistic in their planning," remarked Oksana Kuziakiv, executive director of IED.
According to the survey, three-month uncertainty regarding new orders and headcount expectations decreased among surveyed businesses (though it increased for exports). Uncertainty over the 6-month economic outlook decreased overall but rose for exports.
In addition to heightened uncertainty surrounding export prospects, surveyed companies also reported reduced exports. 34% of respondents had to decrease their exports in January compared to 20% in December. Meanwhile, the proportion of enterprises reporting increased exports dropped from 31% to 19%.
Overall, production indicators of surveyed enterprises worsened in January compared to December. The percentage of enterprises reducing production rose from 16.8% to 23.2%, and employment rates decreased slightly, with businesses facing challenges in finding qualified workers. However, Kuziakiv noted that the decline in employment might also be a seasonal trend.
Moreover, in January 2024, the index of business activity recovery worsened, with the proportion of enterprises reporting better business activity than the previous year decreasing from 64% in December to 56% in January.
The most cited obstacles to production growth among interviewed entrepreneurs include the war and unfavorable security situation, low demand, a shortage of qualified workers, and an unfavorable regulatory climate. However, corruption and pressure from law enforcement agencies were not deemed significant problems, according to the study.
Furthermore, over a fifth of surveyed Ukrainian enterprises identified lifting the blockade of western borders as a necessary change to improve the business climate in the country. For the first time, the survey also inquired about the impact of border closures on their businesses.
The survey included 552 enterprises from 21 regions of Ukraine operating in the manufacturing industry, retail, and agribusiness sectors. It was conducted from January 16 to 31, 2024.
Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine
No.229, February 2024
Resume
• According to the IER, the real GDP growth rate was 3.1% yoy in January 2024.
• The power system remains balanced despite russian shelling. Due to the cold weather, industry and the population increased electricity consumption.
• The Ukrainian Sea Corridor is working well, but trucks at the border are blocked again. Exports by sea in January amounted to 8.7 m tons, and another 2.7 m tons were transported by rail.
• The strike of Polish farmers hinders Ukraine's foreign trade. Since February 12, they have blocked five border crossing points on the Ukrainian-Polish border.
• The current account deficit in 2023 was 5.5% of GDP. The key factors are sharply increased goods trade deficit against reduced grants and expanded investment payments.
• In January 2024, a minimal amount of external financial assistance was received. Expenditures were significantly lower than planned.
• The EU almost approved aid to Ukraine, while a heated debate continues in the United States.
• At the beginning of 2024, consumer inflation decelerated to 4.7% yoy. It was below 5% for the first time since 2020.
• The hryvnia stabilized in 2024 due to a better balance between exports and imports.
• The NBU left the key policy rate at 15% per annum in January and confirmed that there are currently no plans to reduce the rate significantly in 2024.
Місячний Економічний Моніторинг України
№229, лютий 2024 року
Резюме
• За оцінкою ІЕД темпи приросту реального ВВП становили 3,1% дпр у січні 2024 року
• Енергосистема зберігає збалансованість попри російські обстріли. Через холодну погоду зростає споживання електроенергії як промисловістю, так і населенням.
• Український морський коридор працює добре, але знову заблокований автотранспорт. Експорт морським транспортом в січні становив 8,7 млн т, ще 2,7 млн т перевезли залізницею.
• Страйк польських фермерів перешкоджає зовнішній торгівлі України. З 12 лютого ними заблоковано п’ять пунктів пропуску на україно-польському кордоні.
• Дефіцит рахунку поточних операцій у 2023 році склав 5.5% від ВВП. Ключові фактори – різке збільшення дефіциту торгівлі товарами на тлі скорочення грантової допомоги та розширення інвестиційних виплат.
• У січні 2024 року надійшла надзвичайна мала сума зовнішньої фінансової допомоги. Видатки були суттєво нижчі за план.
• ЄС майже схвалив допомогу Україні, тоді як в США тривають гарячі дебати.
• На початку 2024 року споживча інфляція сповільнилась до 4,7 % дпр. Вона була нижча 5% вперше з 2020 року.
• Гривня стабілізувалась у 2024 році через кращий баланс між експортом та імпортом
• НБУ залишив облікову ставку на рівні 15% річних у січні і підтвердив, що значного зниження ставки у 2024 році наразі не планується
ІЕД опублікував результати чергового, 21-го щомісячного опитування підприємств #NRES
Довгострокові очікування покращуються, невизначеність зменшується, але відновлення «тут та зараз» стагнує на фоні занепокоєнь бізнесу щодо безпеки, браку працівників та проблем з попитом, - так можна резюмувати настрої бізнесу у січні 2024-го, які команда ІЕД дослідила в рамах 21-го щомісячного опитування підприємств #NRES
56% опитаних підприємств відповіли, що 2023 рік відповідав їх очікуванням, а для 8% навіть перевищив їхні очікування. При цьому, існує зв’язок між відповідністю 2023-го очікуванням і розміром підприємства. Так, 77% великих підприємств 2023-й назвали очікуваним, або таким що перевершує їх очікування. У той же час, серед мікробізнесу таких було лише 54%.
“Результат, який ми отримали, є досить оптимістичним. Я не очікувала побачити такі цифри, враховуючи турбулентність і події, які пережив у 2023-му український бізнес. Це означає, що більшість підприємств реалістично ставиться до планування”, - говорить Оксана Кузяків, виконавча директорка ІЕД.
Як показує дослідження, серед опитаних підприємств також зменшилася невизначеність у перспективі трьох місяців для очікувань щодо нових замовлень і кількості працівників (хоча і зросла для експорту). Невизначеність у 6-місячній перспективі знизилася для загально-економічного середовища, але також зросла для експорту.
Окрім зростання пов’язаної з перспективами експорту невизначеністю, опитані підприємства повідомляють і безпосередньо про скорочення експорту. Так, у січні довелося скоротити експорт 34% респондентів (у грудні таких було 20%). Доля ж підприємств, які повідомляють про зростання експорту, знизилася з 31% у грудні до 19% у січні.
У січні, порівняно з груднем, виробничі показники опитаних підприємств погіршилися і в цілому. Так, доля підприємств, що скоротили обсяги виробництва, збільшився з 16,8% у грудні до 23,2% у січні. Дещо знизилися і показники зайнятості, а бізнес має проблеми з пошуком кваліфікованих працівників. Хоча, як зауважує Кузяків, скорочення зайнятості може бути і сезонною тенденцією.
Також, у січні 2024 року погіршився так званий індекс відновлення ділової активності (його розраховують згідно з долею відповідей на питання: як краще - “як є зараз” чи “як це було рік тому”). Частка підприємств, які повідомили, що їх ділова активність краща, ніж у попередньому році, знизилася з 64% у грудні до 56% у січні.
Серед перешкод для зростання виробництва опитані підприємці найчастіше згадували війну та несприятливу безпекову ситуацію, низький попит, дефіцит кваліфікованих працівників та несприятливий регуляторний клімат. Корупція та тиск з боку правоохоронних органів, як показує дослідження, не є суттєвими проблемами.
Крім того, більше п’ятої частини опитаних українських підприємств у якості очікуваних змін, необхідних для покращення бізнес-клімату в країні, назвали зняття блокади західних кордонів. Щодо впливу блокування кордонів на їхній бізнес під час цього дослідження запитали вперше.
Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій взяв участь у підготовці стратегії: “Бачення України 2030”
Якою буде Україна після перемоги у війні? Відповідь на це питання, принаймні у частині економічної політики, покликана дати стратегія: “Бачення України 2030”, підготовлена “Спілкою підприємців України” за підтримки USAID та за участю експертів Інституту економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (ІЕД).
Як зазначає документ, роль держави в економіці повинна фокусуватися на створенні рівних правил гри, захисту прав власності, чесної конкуренції та прав споживачів. Це дозволить перетворити Україну в країну з вільною ринковою економікою, одне з найбільш привабливих місць в Європі для ведення бізнесу й інвестицій.
Голова Правління ІЕД Ігор Бураковський та провідна економістка ІЕД Ірина Коссе у рамах документа представили візії розвитку інфраструктури та “зеленої трансформації” України до 2030 року.
На думку експертів ІЕД міжнародна допомога та конфіскація на користь України активів РФ дозволять отримати кошти, необхідні для модернізації застарілої та зруйнованої інфраструктури. Тому ко 2030-му транспортна та логістична системи України здатні відновити транзитний потенціал та інтегруватися у європейський транспортний простір. Це означатиме створення спільних транспортних маршрутів з партнерськими країнами, включаючи значне розширення пропускної здатності як річкових портів, так і сухопутних маршрутів.
Втім, щоб ця візія стала реальністю, потрібно вже зараз провести глибокі реформи в інфраструктурній галузі, зокрема чітко розмежувати сфери відповідальності між державою, бізнесом та регіонами. Реформа корпоративного управління та реструктуризація великих державних компаній («Укрпошта», «Укрзалізниця» тощо), є критично необхідним етапом цього процесу. Крім того, Україні належить імплементувати значну кількість європейських норм, які гармонізують регулювання транспортної галузі з нормативами ЄС. Так, лише у сфері залізничного сполучення Україні належить імплементувати 7 директив та 4 регламенти ЄС.
Що ж стосується візії екологічної трансформації України, на думку експертів ІЕД, перш за все державі потрібно оновити й гармонізувати з європейськими екологічні політики та зобов’язання щодо зниження викидів. Це питання, зокрема, повстане під час перемовин про вступ до ЄС. Втім, зелена трансформація вимагатиме значних коштів, які Україні доведеться залучати на зовнішніх фінансових ринках. Тому Україна вже зараз має активно просувати ідею запровадження спеціальних боргових свопів «борг-на-клімат», коли країна-кредитор списує борг, тоді як країна-боржник зобов’язується інвестувати відповідні кошти в екологічні проєкти. Також Україна повинна створювати умови для розвитку національного ринку фінансування екологічних проєктів, зокрема через створення окремого ринку зелених облігацій. Розвиток такого ринку вимагає часу, створення нормативно-регуляторного середовища та зрілості національного фінансового ринку.
More from Інститут економічних досліджень та політичних консультацій (20)
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
Webinar Exploring DORA for Fintechs - Simont Braun
_NRES_2023_January_Final_EN_.pdf
1.
2. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
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Project implementation:
Institute for Economic Research and Policy
Consulting
Financial support:
The project is implemented with the financial
support of the European Union
International Renaissance Foundation
Atlas Network
Authors of the report:
Oksana Kuziakiv, Executive Director at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, Project
Manager for the project “Support for the Public Initiative “For Fair and Transparent Customs”
Yevhen Anhel, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting
Anastasia Gulik, Research Fellow at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting
Iryna Fedets, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting
The publication was prepared as part of the project "For Fair and Transparent Customs", funded by the European Union and
co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation, and the ATLAS Network (USA). Its content is the responsibility of
the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting and does not necessarily represent the position of the European
Union, the Renaissance Foundation, or the ATLAS Network.
INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND POLICY CONSULTING
Reytarska 8/5-А, 01054 Kyiv, Ukraine
tel.: +38(044) 278-63-42; +38 (044) 278-63-60; fax: +38(044) 278-63-36
institute@ier.kyiv.ua
www.ier.com.ua
Facebook IER
Facebook “For Fair and Transparent Customs”
Telegram channel “Fair Customs”
3. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
2
ABOUT THE NEW MONTHLY ENTERPRISES SURVEY “UKRAINIAN BUSINESS IN WARTIME”
Dear ladies and gentlemen, we present you with the ninth issue of the business managers’ monthly survey
“Ukrainian Business in Wartime”.
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime.
The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the
Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the
enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and
expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts
for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt,
new orders, employment, etc. We will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business
climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the
business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business
and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements. Where applicable, we will use comparisons with the data from the
quarterly business survey “Business Opinion” that have been conducted since 1998.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war's impact on the production activity of
enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension
in data analysis is used in the issue.
The monthly survey of business managers is a part of a change in the activities of the project “For Fair and
Transparent Customs”, funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance
Foundation, and the ATLAS Network (USA). Monthly trends will be presented in reports such as this one.
Quarterly trends will continue to be published in the “Business Survey: Industry” reports, which have been
published by the IER since July 2002.
We are grateful to the analytical system YouControl (https://youcontrol.com.ua/) for the opportunity to use the
data to form a panel sample.
4. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
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Content
PRACTICAL QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS TO HELP TO READ THIS REPORT....................................................................... 5
MAIN RESULTS ................................................................................................................................................................. 7
INDICATORS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE HALF-YEAR PERIOD ............................................................................... 11
BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT THE ENTERPRISE ................................................................................................................... 11
BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT THE ENTERPRISE COMPARED TO A SIMILAR PERIOD OF THE LAST YEAR............................. 11
EXPANSION PLANS FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS......................................................................................................... 12
OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT........................................................................................................................ 13
UNCERTAINTY ............................................................................................................................................................ 13
Half-year expectations........................................................................................................................................... 13
Three-month expectations .................................................................................................................................... 15
ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS............................................................. 15
PRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................. 15
Changes compared to the previous month ........................................................................................................... 15
Expected changes in production............................................................................................................................ 16
SALES.......................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Changes compared to the previous month ........................................................................................................... 16
Expected changes in sales...................................................................................................................................... 17
EXPORT....................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Changes compared to the previous month ........................................................................................................... 17
Expected changes in export................................................................................................................................... 18
STOCKS OF RAW MATERIALS ..................................................................................................................................... 18
Changes compared to the previous month ........................................................................................................... 18
Expected changes in stocks of raw material.......................................................................................................... 19
STOCKS OF FINISHED GOODS..................................................................................................................................... 19
Changes compared to the previous month ........................................................................................................... 19
Expected changes in stocks of finished goods....................................................................................................... 20
NEW ORDERS ............................................................................................................................................................. 20
Changes compared to the previous month ........................................................................................................... 20
Expected changes in new orders ........................................................................................................................... 21
Availability of orders.............................................................................................................................................. 22
ACCOUNT RECEIVABLES............................................................................................................................................. 23
Changes compared to the previous month ........................................................................................................... 23
Expected changes in account receivables.............................................................................................................. 23
ACCOUNT PAYABLES.................................................................................................................................................. 24
5. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
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Changes compared to the previous month ........................................................................................................... 24
Expected changes in account payables.................................................................................................................. 24
TAX ARREARS ............................................................................................................................................................. 25
Changes compared to the previous month ........................................................................................................... 25
Expected changes in tax arrears ............................................................................................................................ 25
NUMBER OF WORKERS.............................................................................................................................................. 26
Changes compared to the previous month ........................................................................................................... 26
Expected changes in the number of workers ........................................................................................................ 26
WORKERS ON FORCED LEAVE.................................................................................................................................... 27
Changes compared to the previous month ........................................................................................................... 27
Expected change in the number of workers on forced leave................................................................................ 28
SKILLED AND UNSKILLED WORKERS........................................................................................................................... 28
Skilled workers....................................................................................................................................................... 29
Unskilled workers................................................................................................................................................... 29
SPECIAL PART OF THE SURVEY....................................................................................................................................... 30
THE IMPACT OF WAR ON ENTERPRISES..................................................................................................................... 30
Challenges for businesses in wartime.................................................................................................................... 30
The war impact on capacity/production volumes................................................................................................. 32
IMPACT OF POWER CUTS........................................................................................................................................... 35
Power cuts: ways to solve the problem..................................................................................................................... 38
THE WAR IMPACT ON THE ENTERPRISES’ EXPORT ACTIVITIES.................................................................................. 39
Main export directions ........................................................................................................................................... 43
Number of trade partners ...................................................................................................................................... 44
GOVERNMENT POLICY ............................................................................................................................................... 45
Assessment of government policy to support business ........................................................................................ 45
What will improve the business situation? Expected measures and changes ...................................................... 46
SURVEY METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................................................ 48
SAMPLE .......................................................................................................................................................................... 48
APPENDIX 1. Survey results in figures............................................................................................................................ 49
6. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
5
PRACTICAL QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS TO HELP TO READ THIS REPORT
Who do we survey? This survey uses a panel sample; that means we survey the same business entities. Building
such a sample takes time. During the ninth wave of the survey, the answers of 573 respondents were received.
Fig. 1 Number of enterprises surveyed
They include mainly industrial enterprises(94%) located in 22 of the 27 regions of Ukraine: Vinnytsya, Volyn,
Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhya, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Mykolayiv, Odesa,
Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi, Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions and in the
Kyiv city. Enterprises of all sizes in terms of the number of workers are represented among the respondents.
Fig. 2 Number of enterprises surveyed by size
How do we collect data? Data was collected using a combination of several data collection methods: telephone
interviews of business representatives filling out their responses into an online check-list, and, in some cases,
self-completion of the online check-list by representatives of enterprises who expressed their desire during the
previous telephone contact to enter data into the online check-list themselves.
How are our indices calculated? All indices are calculated according to a single methodology. We count
responses as +1 when the company responds that the rate has increased, 0 if it has not changed, and -1 if it has
decreased. For example, if out of 100 respondents, 20 indicated an increase in production, 50 respondents
reported its reduction, and 30 said that everything remained unchanged, the corresponding value of the index
will be -0.30. A positive (negative) index value means that the share of enterprises where production has
increased is larger (smaller) than the number of those where production has decreased. Each index bigger than
+0.05 or less than -0.05 is statistically significant, and different from zero with a 5% error probability.
How to "read" our indicators? Our indicators are called "indices," which is a synonym of the term "balance
index" or "balance indicator." All indices are the difference between the shares of respondents who reported a
decrease and those who reported an increase in the indicator. The bigger the index value, the bigger the rate of
indicator growth; the smaller the index value, the bigger the rate of indicator decline.
For most indicators, a higher value of the index means a positive trend, except for indicators of debts, the
number of workers on forced leave, and difficulties in finding personnel. Everything is the opposite here. The
larger the index, the greater the rate of debt growth or the increase in the number of people on forced leave
7. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
6
and hardships (this is bad), the smaller the index, the greater the rate of debt reduction, the decrease in the
number of people on forced leave or hardships (this is good).
When the survey was conducted? The field stage of the ninth wave lasted from January 16 to 31, 2023. The
enterprises' managers compared the results of work in January 2023 with December 2022, assessed the state of
the indicators at the time of the survey (January 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six
months, depending on the question. For some questions (where it was indicated), the results of the work were
compared to ones in the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022). Respondents gave forecasts for the next
three months of work.
8. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
7
MAIN RESULTS
The enterprises' plans for the next two years remain optimistic while uncertainty for the long-term horizon
increased. Estimates of the current situation at both the country and enterprise levels are improving for the
second month in a row. Short-term production expectations have also improved. The uncertainty level in six-
and three months continues to decline, and expectations for six months are improving two months in a row.
Electricity, water, and heat supply outages remain the number one problem, with a slight decrease in the
percentage. The average time expenditure due to electricity cuts was 23% of working hours in December.
Businesses have temporarily suspended work due to power outages but improved the level of providing
independent power sources. The restoration of export activity has improved after four months of stagnation.
The sharpest obstacles to exports are queues at the border, maritime blockades, and complex customs
formalities. Many exporters still cannot refocus from the CIS markets and find new partners. State's economic
policy assessments have become less negative and more neutral.
OVERALL INDICATORS OF BUSINESS CLIMATE AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
• For the second month, there is a trend to improve business activity, as evidenced by the increase in the
value of the index of the CURRENT BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX from -0.24 in December 2022 to -0.14 in January
2023.
• The enterprises' expectations regarding changes in the business activity in the six months are improved;
the value of the corresponding index increased from 0.01 to 0.15.
• Assessments of the overall economic environment remain lower than the estimates of the business
activity, but there is also a trend to improve; in January compared to December, the value of the OVERALL
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT INDEX increased from -0.28 to -0.20.
• Expectations for changes in the overall economic environment have also improved after six months. The
EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT INDEX increased from 0.01 to 0.11.
• The two-year expectations for the expanding business activity are also positive; the value of the INDEX OF
EXPECTED CHANGES IN BUSINESS ACTIVITY in two years in January, compared to December, slightly increased
from 0.21 to 0.24.
• The uncertainty level remains high for the long term, and in January, there is an increase in value; at the
same time, for the six- and three-month horizons for several months in a row, a gradual decrease in
value is recorded.
PRODUCTION
• In January 2023, compared to December 2022, the rate of decline in production slowed down. Although
the PRODUCTION INDEX remained negative, it increased from -0.14 to -0.04.
• Enterprises' expectations for the next three months show an increase in the indicator for the second
month in a row. The value of the INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN PRODUCTION VOLUMES increased significantly
from 0.23 in December to 0.33 in January.
DEMAND AND SALES
• The situation with demand and sales is improving, and the pace of sales and the number of new orders
reduction have accelerated. The value of the SALES INDEX increased from -0.14 to -0.02 in January 2023,
and the value of the NEW ORDERS INDEX increased from -0.05 to 0.02, changing the sign to the positive.
• Business expectations for future demand have also improved. The value of both THE EXPECTED CHANGES IN
THE SALES INDEX and the EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE NEW ORDERS INDEX increased, respectively, from 0.24 to
0.32 and from 0.29 to 0.33.
DEBTS
• In January, there was a sharp reduction in indicators for all debt compared to December. The value of
receivables decreased for the fourth month in a row, and in January, the index decreased from -0.05 to -
9. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
8
0.25. At the same time, after a slight slowdown, the rate of reduction of accounts payables (from -0.05
to -0.26) and tax arrears (from -0.10 to -0.28) accelerated.
• In the three-month, the business expects further debt reduction. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN
RECEIVABLES decreased from -0.19 to -0.29, the INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN ACCOUNTS PAYABLE decreased
from -0.17 to -0.30, and the tax arrears rate decreased from -0.16 to -0.28.
EMPLOYMENT
• The dynamics of changes in employment indicators show minor changes in the labor market.
• The pace of employment reduction at enterprises for three months in a row remains without significant
changes, and THE NUMBER OF WORKERS INDEX has decreased slightly, from -0.08 to -0.09.
• In the next three months, businesses expect a slight increase in the employment rate; the INDEX OF THE
EXPECTED CHANGES for the second month in a row gradually increases and is 0.04 (it was zero).
• The trend to reduce workers on forced leave has slowed down, and the indicators remain almost
unchanged for the third month in a row. The value of the corresponding index in January increased
slightly from -0.20 to -0.18 compared to December. In the next three months, businesses expect to slow
down the process (the index increased from -0.28 to -0.26).
• There is an increase in the difficulty of finding skilled workers (the value increased from 0.12 to 0.19). At
the same time, the index of finding unskilled workers is almost unchanged and is equal to 0.06 (it was
0.05 in December).
AVAILABILTY OF ORDERS
• In January 2023, the enterprises were provided with orders for an average of three months. It is more
than in November and December 2022, when this period was two months on average.
• In January, the share of businesses provided with orders for three months or more increased.
OBSTACLES TO DOING BUSINESS IN WARTIME
• In January 2023, the two major business problems remained unchanged: power outages and price rises.
Businesses reported each of them as often as in December 2022.
• The third place was shared by the difficulty transporting raw materials or goods throughout the territory
of Ukraine and danger for work. At the same time, businesses said that it was unsafe to work in January
less often than in November and December 2022, but still more often than in the summer and autumn
of 2022.
PRODUCTION CAPACITIES DURING THE WAR PERIOD
• In January, businesses remained resistant to Russian terrorist attacks, but production recovery was not
intense. Only 47% of respondents worked at full and higher than the full capacity in January (as in
November and December).
• Despite the power cuts and missile shelling, only 3% of the respondents (also 3% in December) do not
operate, and only 5% of enterprises (also 5% in December) work for less than 25% of the capacity.
• Industries that provide basic human needs continue to overcome the hardships of war best. 62% of the
food industry and 46% of the light industry work at almost full and full capacity.
• Micro-enterprises remain more sensitive to the war, so they work at low capacity, although there is a
slight recovery. If, in December, 21% of micro-enterprises operated at 100% or more compared to pre-
war capacity, then, in January, there were 25% of them.
EXPORTING ENTERPRISES
• 58% of respondents reported they were exporters at the beginning of 2022.
• The export activity recovery improved slightly: the share of enterprises that stopped exporting after
February 24, 2022, and could not resume it, fell to a record low of 10%. Thus, for the first time, positive
trends in the export activity recovery were recorded after four months of stagnation.
10. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
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• In January, the positive trend toward recovery of export volumes continued. The value of the export
index increased compared to the previous month from -0.11 to -0.08. It happened, first of all, due to the
increase in the share of respondents for whom export volumes increased (from 13.7% in December to
16.6% in January). However, for 55.0% of exporters, export volumes did not change (58.8% in
December).
• Despite the positive trends regarding the current export changes, expectations remain almost at the
previous month's level. The index of expected changes in exports rose from 0.23 in December to 0.24 in
January. It is the best result in all waves of the survey. The share of enterprises planning to increase
exports increased (from 27.3% in December to 33.4% in January), but the share of those planning to
reduce exports also increased (from 6.8% in December to 10.9% in January).
• Despite the overall improvement for all businesses, the situation remains difficult for micro-enterprises.
In January, every second (47%) micro-enterprise stopped and could not resume exports (in December, it
was also 47%).
• The top three obstacles to exports in January did not change compared to September. The main
problems for exporters in January are the queues at the western borders of Ukraine. It was indicated by
54% of respondents in September (60% in September). 38% mentioned the impossibility of exporting by
sea (in September 44%), and 30 % indicated complex customs formalities (in September 40%). In
addition, corruption at Ukrainian customs became four times more important in January compared to
May (19% in January versus 16% in September and 5% in May).
• The European Union is the main export destination for Ukrainian businesses (76% of respondents in
January). But the importance of other destinations is also increasing, in particular Turkey (from 5% in
September to 14% in January) and Moldova (from 28% to 30%). At the same time, trade with the
countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, except for Russia, is also being restored (13% in September
to 24% in January).
• The majority of exporters have a "narrow" export geography. Every second enterprise (54%) exports to
2-5 countries, and every fifth (21%) export to only one. Compared to September, the share of
enterprises that export to 11 or more countries has hardly changed (10% in January versus 11% in
September).
POWER CUTS EFFECT
• In December 2022, the problem of power cuts affected a larger share of enterprises compared to
November. The majority of enterprises (89%) temporarily suspended work due to outages (82% in
November), and only 5% of enterprises did not face them (14% in November).
• On average, enterprises lost 23% of the total amount of working time for the month due to the
disconnection of electricity in December, which is slightly higher compared to November (21%).
• Enterprises were able to minimize the loss of time during power outages. For example, 6% of
enterprises worked all the time without power, and 30% did not work only 1-10% of the working time
(respectively, 4% and 31% in November).
• In December, 11% of companies did not work more than half of the time (51 - 100%) due to power cuts,
which is almost twice as much as in November, which reflects a slight worsening of the situation.
• Micro businesses remain less able to deal with power cuts. As a result, on average, micro-enterprises
lost the most working time - 33% in December (31% in November). For comparison, in December, time
losses were 27% for small, 18% for medium, and 22% for large enterprises.
• Industries that provide the basic needs for the population lost, on average, the least working time due
to power outages - 18% food (18% during the previous wave) and 25% light industry (19%). The
situation significantly worsened in the printing industry, where losses almost doubled - from 15% in
November to 28% in December.
• As of the second half of January 2022, 79% of enterprises reported they had installed independent
sources of electricity supply (74% in the previous month). At the same time, larger businesses install
11. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
10
such additional power sources more often than micro and small businesses possibly due to better
financial capacity.
GOVERNMENT POLICY
• In January 2023, businesses mostly neutrally assessed the government policy on business support: 53%
of respondents made such assessments. This share has slightly increased compared to the previous
month.
• At the same time, negative assessments became somewhat rarer: 15% in January 2023 compared to
18% in December 2022.
• The frequency of positive assessments has not changed: 21%, but for the third month in a row, it is
more than in June-October 2022.
• The most expected events and changes for business in January 2023 are the end of the war, the
reduction of taxes and excises, and the program of affordable loans for businesses.
12. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
11
INDICATORS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE HALF-YEAR PERIOD
BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT THE ENTERPRISE
In January 2023, compared to December 2022, enterprises' assessments of their business activity improved
for the second month in a row. In January, the INDEX OF CURRENT BUSINESS ACTIVITY increased from -0.24 to -0.14. It
happened due to a decrease in the share of respondents who assessed the current business activity at the
enterprise as bad, from 31.4% to 26.6%. At the same time, the share of those who positively assessed the
business activity at the enterprise increased from 4.8% to 7.6 %. The share of respondents who consider the
business activity at the enterprise to be satisfactory increased from 63.8% to 65.7%.
Six months' expectations also significantly improved; the value of the INDEX OF THE EXPECTED CHANGES IN BUSINESS
ACTIVITY increased from 0.01 to 0.15. At the same time, the share of "pessimists" decreased from 22.8% to
14.9%, while the share of "optimists" increased from 22.1% to 28.6%. The share of those who do not expect any
changes has changed slightly and is 54.5% (it was 55.0%).
The share of respondents who could not give a forecast regarding changes in the business activity at the
enterprise for the six months is gradually decreasing for the third month in a row and is 40.8% (it was 42.1%).
Fig. 3. Business activity at the enterprise, indices
BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT THE ENTERPRISE COMPARED TO A SIMILAR PERIOD OF THE LAST
YEAR
A comparison of the company's business activity with the same period last year shows further economic
decline. The value of the CURRENT BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX (YEAR TO YEAR) in January compared to December
decreased from -0.68 to -0.76. The share of respondents who indicated the worsening of the situation increased
from 77.1% to 80.3%. At the same time, the share of those who consider the business activity to be the same as
last year decreased from 20.2% to 17.4%. And the share of respondents whose business activity has improved
has changed slightly and amounts to 2.4% (it was 2.5% in December).
Size. The current business activity is bad regardless of the size of the enterprise. But, compared to last year,
large (-0.66) and micro (-0.78) enterprises feel somewhat better, compared to the last year; the business activity
is worse for medium-sized enterprises (-0.83) and small (-0.82) companies.
Region. Regional differences are significant. Poltava region has the highest indicator, the value of which is zero.
Indicators of all other regions have a negative value. Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, and Kharkiv regions have the
worst indicators (-1.00 each).
-0,36
-0,32
-0,20
-0,22
-0,09
-0,16
-0,33
-0,24
-0,14
0,07
0,15
0,12
0,03
0,11
-0,09
-0,18
0,01
0,15
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Business activity at the enterprise Expected business activity at the enterprise
13. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
12
Sector. In terms of industries, the value of the index is negative for all groups. The highest index value was
recorded for metalworking (-0.61) and machine building (-0.67). The construction materials production (-0.93),
printing (-0.92), and chemical (-0.96) industries have the worst indicators.
Fig. 4. How do you assess the business activity at the enterprise compared to last year?, % of respondents
EXPANSION PLANS FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS
Expectations regarding business activity for the next six months remain positive, and the indicator slightly
increased compared to December. The percentage of those planning to expand in the next two years increased
slightly, from 30.4% in December to 31.6% in January, after declining for two consecutive months. At the same
time, the share of those who plan to reduce their activities decreased from 9.3% to 7.5% in January. And the
share of those who plan to stay at the current level remained almost unchanged and is 60.8% (it was 60.4% in
December). The index of expected changes in business activity in the two-year horizon increased from 0.21 to
0.24.
It is important to note that the number of those who could not give a forecast for such a distant period
increased from 51.9% to 56% in January after a slight decrease in December.
Fig. 5. Do you plan to expand the company's activities in the next two years?, % of respondents
Size. Among enterprises of all sizes, the most optimistic about the future are micro-enterprises, whose indicator
is 0.32. The index values for large (0.26), medium (0.23), and small (0.21) companies are approximately in the
same range.
77,1
20,2
2,7
80,3
17,4
2,4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Worse The same Better
Dec.22 Jan.23
30,4
60,4
9,3
51,9
31,6
60,8
7,5
56
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Yes, I'm planning to
extend
Planning to stay at the
current level
Planning to lower
activity
It's hard to predict
Dec.22 Jan.23
14. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
13
Region. Significant regional differences were registered. There is a group of areas with a predominance of
positive expectations and, conversely, groups with negative expectations. Poltava (1.00) and Chernihiv (0.83)
regions have the highest expectations. Three regions have a negative indicator: Rivne (-0.08), Dnipropetrovsk (-
0.11), and Zhytomyr (-0.27).
Sector. Expectations vary by sector. Indicators of chemical (0.40) and printing (0.33) industries have the highest
indicator of expectations. The indicator for construction materials production is the only one with a negative
value (-0.22).
OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
The assessment of the overall economic environment, as well as the business activity at the enterprise, has
improved. The value of the corresponding INDEX increased in January compared to December from -0.28 to -
0.20. It happened due to a simultaneous decrease in the share of those who rate the overall economic
environment as bad (from 34.2% to 30.0%) and an increase in the share of those who give positive assessments
(from 3.2% to 4.5%). The share of those who consider the overall economic environment to be satisfactory also
increased (from 62.6% to 65.5%).
Companies' forecasts regarding changes in the overall economic environment for the next six months also
improved: the value of the INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE OVERALL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT increased significantly,
from 0.01 to 0.11. The share of "optimists" regarding changes in the overall economic environment increased
only slightly, from 23.3% to 25.5%, while the share of "pessimists" significantly decreased, from 23.3% to 16.8%.
The share of those who believe the overall economic environment will not change in the next six months
increased from 53.3% to 57.7%.
The share of those who could not give forecasts about the overall economic environment decreased from 43.4%
to 42.9%.
Fig. 6. Overall economic environment, indices
UNCERTAINTY
Half-year expectations
For the third month in a row, the level of uncertainty in the forecasts of both the business activity at the
enterprise and the overall economic environment is gradually decreasing. The share of respondents who could
not give a forecast of the changes in the business activity at the enterprise in six months decreased from 42.1%
to 40.8%, and the overall economic environment in the country - from 43.4% to 42.9%.
-0,54
-0,44
-0,37
-0,28
-0,20
-0,31
-0,34
-0,28
-0,20
0,01
0,16
0,09
0,01
0,12
-0,12
-0,23
0,01
0,11
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Current overall economic environment
Expected overall economic environment
15. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
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Fig. 7. The level of the business activity and the overall economic environment uncertainty, % of respondents
The level of uncertainty regarding the business activity at the enterprise and its dynamics depends on the
enterprise's size. In December, the uncertainty index increased for micro (from 33% to 36%) and small (from
46% to 52%) enterprises. At the same time, for medium-sized enterprises, the indicator of uncertainty about
business activity decreased from (45% to 43%). And for large enterprises, the indicator of uncertainty increased
the least and decreased compared to December from 36% to 26%.
Fig. 8. The share of respondents unable to answer the question about the change in the business activity in six months
Uncertainty about the overall economic environment, as for business activity, depends on the size of the
enterprise. At the same time, the indicator slightly increased only for small enterprises. The level of
uncertainty is lower for large (percentage decreased from 32% to 31%) and small (the percentage decreased
from 38% to 37%) enterprises; the indicator for medium-sized enterprises decreased from 47% to 46%. The
percentage for small businesses increased slightly, from 50% to 51%.
Fig. 9. The share of respondents unable to answer the question regarding the change in the overall economic environment in the six
months
45,0% 43,3%
31,4%
29,0% 34,4%
45,9% 43,8%
42,1%
40,8%
47,7%
43,6%
33,9%
33,2%
36,7%
49,8% 47,7%
43,4% 42,9%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23
No answer on business activity in six month
No answer on economic environment in six month
33
41 44
52
54
35
29
22
34 30 29 25
51
36
31 31
39
50
41
52
43
52
46
30
33
46 45
36
36
52
43
26
0
20
40
60
80
Micro Small Medium Large
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23
35
48
43
46
48
41
30
26
38 37
31 30
51
42
33 31
47
50 51 48
53
57
46
37
38
50
47
32
37
51
46
31
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Micro Small Medium Large
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23
16. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
15
Three-month expectations
In the three-month horizon, there is also a decrease in uncertainty for almost all indicators. Uncertainty for
debts is still the highest, although the value has decreased for the second month in a row. The indicators of
tax arrears (from 33.0% to 22.9%), receivables (from 35.0% to 23.7%), and payables (from 35.4% to 23.2%)
decreased the most. The lowest level of uncertainty remains for exports, where the percentage decreased from
10.2% to 8.4%.
Fig. 10. The share of enterprises unable to forecast the change of the indicator in three months, % of respondents
ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND SHORT-TERM
EXPECTATIONS
PRODUCTION
Changes compared to the previous month
In January, compared to December, the situation with production improved, as evidenced by the growth of
the index after a two-month layoff. The PRODUCTION INDEX INCREASED from -0.14 to -0.04. It happened due to a
decrease in the share of enterprises where production decreased from 32.2% to 28.0% and a simultaneous
increase in the share of those enterprises that increased production volumes from 14.0% to 19.8%. At the same
time, the share of industries where there were no changes changed only slightly and is 52.2% (it was 53.8% in
December 2022).
Size. A significant difference between enterprises of different sizes was recorded. Medium (0.01) and large
(0.02) enterprises, for which the index is the highest and positive, felt the best. The index value for small
enterprises is -0.17. The worst situation is for micro-enterprises, whose index is -0.36.
Region. Regional differences are significant (the highest value is 1.00, and the smallest is -0.64). The best results
were obtained by enterprises of Poltava (1.00), Lviv (0.66), Ivano-Frankivsk (0.45), and Kyiv (0.43) regions. The
lowest index values were recorded for enterprises in Kharkiv (-0.64), Zakarpattya, Vinnytsya (-0.57 each), and
Sumy (-0.53) regions.
Sector. Index values vary across sectors and industries. The best situation is in the printing (0.17) and food (0.15)
industries. Indicators of other industries are negative, and the construction materials production (-0.50) and
woodworking industry (-0.54) have the lowest index values.
17. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
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Fig. 11. Indices of changes in production
Expected changes in production
The indicator of enterprises' production plans for the next three months is growing for the second month in a
row. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN PRODUCTION increased from 0.23 to 0.33. The share of enterprises planning
to increase production grew from 32.1% to 39.4% in January, while the share of those planning to reduce
production decreased from 11.7% to 39.4%. The share of those who do not expect changes decreased from
56.3% to 51.7%.
Size. Production expectations depend on the size of the enterprises. The highest is the indicator of large
enterprises and is 0.39. The indicator of small (0.32) and medium (0.30)companies is approximately the same.
Microenterprises have the lowest expectations for production volumes, the index of which is 0.06.
Region. Enterprise plans depend significantly on the region of location. Poltava (1.00), Lviv (0.97), Ivano-
Frankivsk (0.95), and Ternopil (0.89) regions have the most optimistic plans for the growth of production
volumes. Kharkiv (-0.27), Khmelnytskyy (-0.14), Kirovohrad (-0.11), and Cherkasy (-0.10) regions have the lowest
expectations.
Sector. Production expectations for three months depend on the industry. The highest indicators are for food
(0.41), light industry (0.40), and woodworking (0.22) industry. The construction materials production industry
has the lowest and only negative indicator of expectations - -0.09.
SALES
Changes compared to the previous month
In January, the rate of sales DECLINE continued to slow; the indicator increased and almost approached zero,
although it remains negative. The SALES INDEX increased from -0.14 to -0.02. It became possible due to a
decrease in the share of enterprises that decreased sales from 32.6% to 27.3% and a simultaneous increase in
those enterprises that increased sales from 15.1% to 20.5%. At the same time, the share of enterprises where
there were no changes in January remained almost unchanged and amounted to 52.2% (it was 52.3% in
December).
Size The SALES INDEX for medium (0.02) and large (0.05) enterprises is about the same and the highest. The
indicator of medium-sized enterprises is -0.18, and the lowest value for micro-enterprises is -0.34.
Region. The highest value of the sales index was recorded for Poltava (0.94), Lviv (0.66), Ivano-Frankivsk (0.45)
regions, and Kyiv (0.33). The lowest indicator is in Zakarpattya (-0.57), Kharkiv (-0.50), Sumy (-0.47), and
Khmelnytskyy (-0.42) regions.
-0,55
-0,30
-0,12
-0,09
0,05
-0,03
-0,13 -0,14
-0,04
0,12
0,22 0,24
0,20
0,32
0,17
0,04
0,23
0,33
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Production Production exp.
18. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
17
Sector. The food (0.20) and printing (0.17) industries have the highest SALES INDEX with a positive value. The
lowest value is for metalworking, construction materials production (-0.44), and the woodworking industry (-
0.61).
Expected changes in sales
Sales expectations increase for the second month in a row. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN SALES in January
compared to December increased from 0.24 to 0.32. The share of respondents who plan to increase sales
volumes in the next three months increased from 32.7% to 39.6%, while the share of those who expect them to
decrease decreased from 12.1% to 10.7%. At the same time, the percentage of respondents who believe
nothing will change has significantly decreased, from 55.2% to 49.7%.
Size. Representatives of large enterprises (0.37) have the highest expectations. The indicator of medium (0.32)
and small (0.29) enterprises is approximately the same. The indicator of micro-enterprises is the only one with a
negative value and is -0.02.
Region. The best expectations were recorded in Poltava (1.00), Lviv (0.97), Ivano-Frankivsk (0.95), and Ternopil
(0.89) regions. On the other hand, in Sumy (-0.28), Vinnytsya (-0.18), Kharkiv (-0.17), and Kirovohrad (-0.11)
regions, the indicator of expectations regarding sales volumes is the lowest.
Sector. The food industry (0.41), light industry (0.04), and woodworking (0.22) industry have the highest sales
expectations. Machine building and construction materials production have the lowest negative expectations
index (-0.09 for each sector).
Fig. 12. Indices of changes in sales
EXPORT
Changes compared to the previous month
In January, the rate of export growth continued its gradual acceleration. The value of the EXPORT INDEX
increased from -0.11 to -0.08. The share of respondents whose export volumes decreased in January compared
to December remained almost unchanged at 28.4% (it was 28.0%). At the same time, the share of enterprises
that increased export increased slightly, from 13.7% to 16.6%. And the share of companies whose export
volumes did not change shortened from 58.8% to 55.0%.
Size. The highest and approximately the same value of the export index is for large (-0.02) and medium (-0.05)
enterprises. The indicator of small enterprises is -0.31. The lowest is the indicator for micro-enterprises - -0.41.
Region. Lviv (0.90), Poltava (0.61), and Ivano-Frankivsk (0.50) regions have the highest indicators. The lowest
value is for Sumy (-1.00) and Zakarpattya (-0.64) regions.
-0,48
-0,36
-0,16
-0,09
0,01
-0,03
-0,14 -0,14
-0,02
0,11
0,23 0,23 0,20
0,33
0,19
0,04
0,24
0,32
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Sales Sales exp.
19. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
18
Sector. The food industry EXPORT INDEX (0.17) is the highest and has the only positive value. The indicators of all
other sectors have a negative value, and the lowest values are for the woodworking industry (-0.50) and
construction materials production (-0.62).
Expected changes in export
For the next three months, entrepreneurs do not expect significant changes in exports. The value of the INDEX
OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN EXPORT has changed slightly and is 0.24 (it was 0.23). The share of companies planning to
increase exports increased from 27.3% to 33.4%, while the share of those planning to decrease exports
increased from 6.8% to 10.9%. The share of those who do not expect any changes decreased from 65.9% to
55.6%.
Size. Large enterprises have the best export expectations (0.30). The indicator of small and medium-sized
enterprises is the same and is 0.21. Micro-enterprises, whose index is 0.04, have the lowest indicator of
expectations regarding export changes.
Region: The enterprises in Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil (1.00 for each), Poltava (0.83), and Lviv (0.80) regions have
the highest value of the index of expected export changes. The worst are the expectations of business
representatives of the Sumy region (-1.00) and the city of Kyiv (-0.36).
Sector. The light (0.33) and food industries (0.29) have the highest value of the index of expected changes in
exports. Indicators for the machine building (-0.13) and printing (-0.17) industries have the lowest and negative
values.
Fig. 13. Indices of changes in export
STOCKS OF RAW MATERIALS
Changes compared to the previous month
For the second month in a row, the reduction rate in raw material stocks shows a gradual acceleration, as
evidenced by the increase in the value of THE RAW MATERIALS STOCKS INDEX from -0.15 in December to -0.10. The
share of respondents who reported an increase in raw material stocks over the past month increased from
10.2% to 16.0%. At the same time, the share of respondents who indicated its reduction increased only slightly,
from 27.7% to 28.4%. The share of entrepreneurs for whom nothing changed compared to last month
decreased from 62.1% to 55.6%.
Size. The STOCKS OF RAW MATERIALS INDEX is the highest and approximately the same for medium (-0.06) and large
(-0.09) enterprises. The indicator of small enterprises is -0.14. The indicator of micro-enterprises is the lowest
and is -0.37.
-0,42
-0,48
-0,31
-0,24 -0,21
-0,15 -0,18
-0,11 -0,08
0,07
0,11 0,14 0,12
0,22
0,13
0,00
0,23 0,24
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Export Export exp.
20. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
19
Region. Poltava (1.00), Lviv (0.69), Ivano-Frankivsk (0.45), Rivne (0.33), and Odesa (0.31) regions have the
highest indicators. The indicators of Kyiv (-0.70), Kharkiv (-0.67), and Cherkasy (-0.52) regions have the lowest
values.
Sector. The food industry, whose indicator is equal to zero, has the highest value of the indicator. Indicators of
all other industries are negative, and the lowest value is recorded for the woodworking industry, construction
materials production(-0.37 for each), and metalworking (-0.35).
Expected changes in stocks of raw material
For the next three months, the entrepreneurs surveyed expect a further increase in the indicator: the INDEX OF
EXPECTED CHANGES IN RAW MATERIALS increased significantly from 0.19 to 0.24, which, like last time, became the
highest indicator for the entire period of the survey. The number of respondents who expect raw material
stocks to increase increased from 30.4% to 34.3%, while the share of those who believe that raw material stocks
will decrease remained almost unchanged at 23.3% in January (12.8% in December). The share of those who
believe that the situation will not change decreased from 56.7% to 53.3%.
Size. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN RAW MATERIALS is approximately the same for large (0.27), medium (0.24),
and small (0.23) enterprises. The indicator of micro-enterprises is the lowest and the only one with a negative
value of -0.05.
Region. Lviv (0.97), Poltava (0.94), Lviv (0.90), and Ternopil (0.89) regions have the highest INDEX OF EXPECTED
CHANGES IN RAW MATERIALS. The lowest value of the index is for the city of Kyiv (-0.60), Sumy (-0.38), Kharkiv, and
Vinnytsia (-0.25 for each) regions.
Sector. The food (0.34) and light industries (0.33) have the highest indicator of expectations regarding changes
in raw material stocks. The woodworking industry (-0.04) and machine building (-0.18) have negative indicators
of expectations.
Fig. 14. Indices of changes in stocks of raw materials
STOCKS OF FINISHED GOODS
Changes compared to the previous month
The pace of decline in finished goods stocks slowed down after reducing for three consecutive months. The
value of the corresponding index in January compared to December remained unchanged and is -0.40. In the
percentage distribution, the share of respondents who reported a decrease in stocks of finished goods
decreased from 48.6% to 44.9%, and the share of those respondents whose stocks increased fell from 7.6% to
4.3%). The share of respondents who did not feel any changes increased from 43.8% to 50.9%.
-0,62
-0,41
-0,29
-0,16
-0,01
-0,12
-0,19
-0,15
-0,10
0,01 0,00
0,15
0,06
0,17
0,00 -0,02
0,19
0,24
-0,70
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Stocks of raw materials Stocks of raw materials exp.
21. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
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Size. Depending on the enterprise size, the value of the index also changes; it is the highest for micro-
enterprises and is -0.28. The indicator of large enterprises is -0.34, and of medium-sized enterprises - -0.42. The
indicator of small enterprises is the lowest and amounts to -0.48.
Region. The value of the index depends on the region. Among the enterprises, the Poltava region has the
highest index value; its indicator is zero. The values for Kyiv (-0.03) and Dnipropetrovsk (-0.05) regions are
negative but close to zero.
Sector. All sectors have negative values, but the lowest values are for woodworking (-0.50) and light industry (-
0.53), and the highest values are for the chemical industry (-0.25) and machine building (-0. 31).
Expected changes in stocks of finished goods
In the future, entrepreneurs expect a slight decrease in the indicator. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN STOCKS OF
FINISHED GOODS decreased from -0.27 to -0.30. The share of respondents who believe that stocks of finished
goods will decrease in the next three months has decreased from 36.9% to 34.3%, while the share of those who
expect them to increase has almost halved, from 7.3% to 3.8 %. The percentage of those who believe that
nothing will change has increased from 55.8% to 61.9%.
Size. The value of the indicator depends on the size of the enterprise. The indicator is higher for large micro-
enterprises (-0.21). The indicator is approximately the same for medium (-0.28) and large (-0.29) enterprises. For
small enterprises, the index value is the lowest and is -0.39.
Region. Khmelnytskyy (0.25), Zhytomyr (0.05), and Kyiv (0.03) regions have the highest indicator of
expectations. The indicator of the Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv regions is zero. The indicator of
expectations for all other regions has a negative value, but it is the lowest for Ivano-Frankivsk (-1.00), Lviv (-
0.93), and Ternopil (-0.84) regions.
Sector. The value of the index for the woodworking industry (-0.05) is the highest. Indicators of food (-0.39),
printing (-0.33), and light industry (-0.32) are the lowest.
Fig. 15. Indices of changes in stocks of finished goods
NEW ORDERS
Changes compared to the previous month
The dynamics of new orders increased for the second month in a row, and the indicator changed from
negative to positive. The NEW ORDERS INDEX increased from -0.05 to 0.02 in January compared to December due
to an increase in the share of those with an increase in the number of new orders, from 16.8% to 19.0%. At the
-0,33
-0,17
-0,29
-0,13
-0,03
-0,23
-0,34
-0,40 -0,40
-0,08
-0,12
-0,09
-0,11
0,07
-0,16
-0,36
-0,27
-0,30
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Stocks of finished goods Stocks of finished goods exp.
22. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
21
same time, the share of those who reported a decrease in the number of new orders in January decreased from
26.8% to 21.2%. The share of those who did not feel any changes increased from 56.5% to 59.8%.
Size. The value of the index is the highest for large enterprises and amounts to 0.13. Medium-sized enterprises
also have a positive value of the indicator (0.03). The indicator of small enterprises is -0.07. The lowest is the
value of micro-enterprises - -0.35.
Region. The new orders grew the most in Poltava (0.72), Lviv (0.69), Ivano-Frankivsk (0.45) regions, and Kyiv city
(0.42), while in Sumy (-0.47), Khmelnytskyy (-0.45), Vinnytsya (-0.21) and Kyiv (-0.31) regions there was the
largest decrease in new orders.
Sector. The best situation with new orders in the previous month was for food (0.17), printing (0.08), and light
industries (0.02), whose indicators have a positive value. The woodworking industry (0.32) and construction
materials production (-0.39) have the lowest indicators.
Expected changes in new orders
The growth rate of new orders is expected to accelerate. The value of THE INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN NEW
ORDERS increases for the second month in a row and is 0.33 (it was 0.29). The share of businesses expecting an
increase in new orders increased from 37.0% to 39.6%. At the same time, the share of respondents who believe
the number of orders will decrease decreased from 10.7% to 9.4%. The share of those not expecting any
changes in the next three months decreased from 52.3% to 51.0%.
Size. The expectation index is the highest for large enterprises and is 0.40. The indicator is approximately the
same for medium (0.33) and small (0.32) enterprises. The indicator of expectations for micro-enterprises is the
only one with a negative value: -0.08.
Region. Index values have significant regional differences. In the Ivano-Frankivsk (1.00), Lviv (0.97), Ternopil
(0.89), Poltava (0.78), and Odesa (0.73) regions, businesses expect an increase in new orders. However, the
indicators of Sumy (-0.41), Cherkasy (-0.10), Kharkiv (-0.09), and Khmelnytskyy (-0.08) regions are the lowest and
have negative values.
Sector. Light (0.46) and food (0.44) industries have the best expectations for new orders. Indicators of
construction materials production (-0.09) and machine building (-0.15) have negative values and are the lowest.
Fig. 16. Indices of changes in new orders
-0,52
-0,30
-0,19
-0,02
0,01
-0,03
-0,11
-0,05
0,02
0,10
0,19
0,25 0,23
0,34
0,21
0,15
0,29
0,33
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
New orders New orders exp.
23. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
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Availability of orders
In January 2023, the average period for new order availability for surveyed companies increased to three
months from two months in November and December 2022 (median value). In addition, there were some
changes in the pattern of responses compared to the previous two months when businesses answered this
question.
For example, in January 2023, the highest share of businesses with orders for a slightly longer period of time -
for 3-5 months (26%) and 6-11 months (18%) - was recorded during the entire survey period. On the other hand,
companies rarely say about having orders for only 1-2 months (37%). The share of those with orders for a very
short period – up to one month – fell to 11% after rising to 16% in December 2023.
8% of enterprises have new orders for a year or more. This share remained roughly at the level of December
2022 after decreasing from 13% in November 2022. 7% of companies among the entire sample did not answer
this question. This share includes non-working enterprises.
Fig. 17. Period for which enterprises are provided with orders (% of respondents)
Size. The period for which enterprises are provided with orders increases with the increase in their size. Micro-
enterprises are provided with orders for the shortest period - only one month on average (median value).
Among them, the largest share of those who have orders for a period of only up to two months is 70%. As of
January 2023, the average term for order availability for small enterprises increases to two months, for medium-
sized enterprises - to three, and for large enterprises - to four months. More than 30% of medium-sized large
enterprises are provided with orders for half a year or more.
Sector. In January 2023, the longest average term of new orders was recorded in the machine building industry:
at an average of 3.5 months (median value)1
. Here, 34% of enterprises are provided with orders for a period of
six months or more. For comparison, among other industries, the share of enterprises with orders for such a
period does not exceed 29%. The shortest average term of new orders is in the construction materials
production industry; it was only one month. Among the construction materials producers, the largest share of
enterprises - 63% - was recorded, which reported they were provided with orders for up to two months.
Region. There are significant differences in order availability among enterprises in different regions2
. The
average term of order availability is the longest for enterprises in the Poltava and Volyn regions; it is 6 and 5
1
This analysis does not include enterprises in the sectors of agriculture, construction, trade, and services, as well as
enterprises included in the category "Other production."
2
Regions in which no enterprises were surveyed are not included in the comparison. In addition, the answers of
respondents in the Mykolayiv region are not included in the comparison by regions because the number of
respondents in this region is insufficient for statistical comparison. For more details, see the "Sample" section.
7%
50%
21%
9%
13%
16%
42%
22%
12%
9%
11%
37%
26%
18%
8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Less than 1 month 1 to 2 months 3 to 5 months 6 to 11 months 12 months and
more
Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23
24. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
23
months, respectively (median value). At the same time, in the Poltava region, all surveyed companies said that
they have orders for at least 3 months.
On the other hand, the enterprises of Kharkiv and Chernivtsi regions, on average, are provided with orders for
less than one month. It is the lowest among all regions covered by this survey. Dnipropetrovsk and Zhytomyr
regions (1 month on average) and Chernihiv region (1.5 months) also have short average order terms.
ACCOUNT RECEIVABLES
Changes compared to the previous month
The indicator of receivables decreased for the fourth month in a row. The value of the ACCOUNT RECEIVABLES
INDEX in January compared to December decreased sharply, from -0.05 to -0.25. The share of those who
reported an increase in debt increased almost threefold, from 13.4% to 38.1%. At the same time, the share of
those with debt almost halved, from 20.8% to 11.2%. Also, the share of those for whom nothing has changed
over the past month decreased from 65.8% to 50.7%.
Size. The worst situation with receivables is for large enterprises (-0.16). The indicator of small and medium-
sized enterprises is the same and is -0.30. The best the value is for micro-enterprises, which is the lowest -0.36.
Region. Significant regional differences in the values of this indicator were recorded. In terms of regions, the
largest increase in receivables was recorded in the city of Kyiv (0.43), Cherkasy (0.23), and Kyiv (0.21) regions.
The indicator of the Chernihiv, Poltava, Zakarpattya, and Zaporizhzhya regions is zero. The lowest is the indicator
for Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv (-1.00 for each), Ternopil (-0.93), and Sumy (-0.86) regions.
Sector. Machine building, woodworking (-0.05 each), and the printing industry (-0.10) have the highest positive
values. The chemical industry (-0.33), light industry (-0.34), and metalworking (-0.41) have the lowest indicators.
Expected changes in account receivables
A further debt reduction is expected in the next three months.
The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN ACCOUNT RECEIVABLES decreased from -0.19 to -0.29. Both the share of
respondents who expect this indicator to increase (from 3.9% to 5.8%) and the share of those who expect it to
decrease (from 23.5% to 35.8%) increased. The share of those who believe nothing will change has significantly
decreased, from 72.6% to 58.4%.
Fig. 18. Indices of changes in account receivables
0,15
0,03
0,05 0,05
0,08
0,01
-0,03
-0,05
-0,25
0,00
-0,03
-0,16
-0,13
-0,08
-0,18
-0,14
-0,19
-0,29
-0,35
-0,30
-0,25
-0,20
-0,15
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Accounts receivable Accounts receivable exp.
25. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
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Size. The large and micro enterprises, whose indicator is the same (-0.24), have the highest indicator of
expectations. The indicator of medium-sized enterprises is -0.30, and the indicator of small enterprises is the
lowest at -0.39.
Region. The highest are the indicators of the city of Kyiv (0.40), Cherkasy (0.10), and Kyiv (0.06) regions. The
indicators of the Poltava, Zakarpattya, and Vinnytsya regions are equal to zero. The indicators of other regions
have a negative value, and the lowest are the indicators of Sumy, Ternopil, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions (-
1.00 for each).
Sector. The woodworking industry (-0.05) and machine building (-0.06) have the highest indicator of
expectations for receivables increase. The value for the food industry and construction materials production (-
0.37 each) is the lowest.
ACCOUNT PAYABLES
Changes compared to the previous month
In January, the indicator significantly decreased after a slight increase in December. The ACCOUNT PAYABLES INDEX
decreased from -0.05 to -0.26. The share of respondents who reported an increase in debt changed slightly,
decreasing from 11.5% to 9.1%. At the same time, the share of those whose accounts payable decreased almost
doubled, from 19.4% to 36.8%. The share of those for whom nothing has changed over the past month
decreased from 69.1% to 54.1%.
Size. The indicator of large enterprises is the highest and amounts to -0.16. The indicator of medium (-0.32) and
small (-0.33) enterprises is approximately the same. Micro-enterprises have the lowest indicator of payables: -
0.26.
Region. Significant regional differences were recorded. The situation with the accumulation of payables is the
worst in the city of Kyiv (0.33), in Cherkasy (0.17) and Kyiv (0.10) regions, and the best situation is in Lviv and
Ivano-Frankivsk (-1.00 each), Ternopil and Sumy regions (-0.93 each).
Sector. The highest is the indicator of the woodworking industry, which is equal to zero. All other indicators
have a negative value, but the lowest value is for the food (-0.32) and chemical (-0.35) industries and for
metalworking (-0.36).
Expected changes in account payables
A further debt reduction is expected for the next three months. The INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES IN ACCOUNT
PAYABLES after remaining practically unchanged for two months significantly decreased from -0.17 to -0.30. The
share of those who expected a decrease in payables increased from 20.6% to 34.3%. And the share of those who
expected an increase in payables remained almost unchanged at 3.3% (it was 3.8% ). The share of respondents
who believe nothing will change decreased from 75.6% to 62.4%.
Size. The indicator of expected payables is higher and approximately the same for large (-0.22) and micro-
enterprises (-0.20). The indicators of medium (-0.35) and small (-0.38) enterprises are better and are
approximately in the same range.
Region. The indicator of expectations for payables is positive and the only one above zero in Kyiv (0.20),
Cherkasy (0.10), and Kyiv (0.03) regions. The lowest indicators are for Ternopil, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk (-1.00
for each) regions and in Dnipropetrovsk (-0.92) and Sumy (-0.93) regions.
Sector. The highest is the indicator of the woodworking industry, which is equal to zero. Metal processing (-
0.39), food (-0.38), and light industries (-0.43) have the lowest values.
26. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
25
Fig. 19. Indices of changes in account payables
TAX ARREARS
Changes compared to the previous month
The rate of tax arrears reduction has accelerated. The TAX ARREARS INDEX in January compared to November
decreased three times, from -0.10 to -0.30. The share of enterprises that reported a decrease in tax arrears over
the past month doubled, from 14.9% to 32.3%, while the share of respondents who indicated an increase in tax
arrears decreased from 4.3% to 1.0%. The share of those who believe there were no changes has significantly
decreased, from 80.8% to 66.7%.
Size. Tax arrears indicators are better and almost the same for large (-0.21) and micro-enterprises (-0.22). The
indicator is higher and is approximately in the same range for medium (-0.35) and small (-0.39) enterprises.
Region. There are significant differences in the value of this indicator by region. Indicators of Kyiv, Cherkasy,
Chernihiv, Poltava, Volyn, Zakarpattya, and Zhytomyr regions are equal to zero. The other regions' indicators
have a negative value, and the lowest are the indicators of Lviv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk (-1.00 each), Ternopil (-
0.93), and Dnipropetrovsk (-0.83) regions.
Sector. The indicator of tax arrears for the woodworking industry has the highest value, equal to zero. The value
for the printing industry is -0.50, and for metalworking -0.39.
Expected changes in tax arrears
Entrepreneurs expect a further reduction in tax arrears for the next three months. The INDEX OF EXPECTED
CHANGES IN TAX ARREARS decreased from -0.16 to -0.28. The share of those who forecast a decrease in tax arrears
increased from 17.0% to 29.7%, while the share of those who expect it to increase changed slightly and
amounted to 0.8% (it was 1.1%). The share of those who do not expect changes decreased from 81.9% to 69.5%.
Size. Indicators of tax arrears expectations are better and about the same for large (-0.19) and micro-enterprises
(-0.21). The indicator is higher and is approximately in the same range for medium (-0.31) and small (-0.38)
enterprises.
Region. The indicator of expectations of the Volyn region is the only one above zero and is 0.05. Ternopil, Lviv,
Sumy, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions have the lowest values (-1.00 each).
0,10
0,01
0,00 0,00 0,01
-0,03
-0,08
-0,05
-0,26
0,00
-0,06
-0,19
-0,13 -0,14
-0,19
-0,17 -0,17
-0,30
-0,35
-0,30
-0,25
-0,20
-0,15
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Accounts payable Accounts payable exp.
27. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
26
Sector. The highest indicator of tax arrears expectations is for the woodworking industry and is 0.07. Indicators
of other sectors have a negative value, but the lowest is the indicator for the food (-0.37) and printing (-0.38)
industries.
Fig. 20. Indices of changes in tax arrears
NUMBER OF WORKERS
Changes compared to the previous month
The rate of employment reduction remains almost unchanged for the fourth month in a row. The NUMBER OF
WORKERS INDEX in January is -0.09 (it was -0.08 in December). The share of respondents who reported a decrease
in the number of workers involved in all operations of the enterprise remained almost unchanged at 11.3% (it
was 11.2%). And the share of those who indicated their increase is 1.4% (it was 1.8% in December). The share of
those for whom nothing has changed is 87.3% (it was 86.9% in December).
Size. The indicator is slightly higher and approximately the same for large (-0.07) and medium (-0.08)
enterprises. The indicator of small enterprises is -0.11. The lowest index value is for micro-enterprises and is -
0.21.
Region. The highest is the index of the Chernihiv region (0.07). Sumy (-0.53), Kharkiv (-0.42) and Volyn (-0.28)
regions have the lowest values.
Sector. The index of food (-0.05), woodworking (-0.07), and printing (-0.08) industries is the highest. The
indicators of construction materials production (-0.19) and food industry (-0.21) have the lowest values.
Expected changes in the number of workers
In the next three months, entrepreneurs expect a slight increase in the indicator: the INDEX OF EXPECTED CHANGES
in the number of workers increased for the second month in a row and amounts to 0.04 (the value increased
from zero). Changes in the percentage distribution are insignificant. The share of respondents who believe that
the number of workers at the enterprise will increase has changed slightly, from 4.9% to 5.7%, while the share
of those who expect a reduction in the number of workers has decreased from 5.3% to 3.3%. The share of those
who believe that nothing will change has increased from 89.7% to 91.0%.
Size. The indicator of large (0.07) and medium (0.04)companies is approximately the same and has a positive
value. The indicator of small enterprises is -0.01. The value of micro-enterprises is the lowest and is equal to -
0.07.
-0,09
-0,14
-0,06
-0,02
-0,06
-0,12
-0,10
-0,30
-0,10
-0,18
-0,09
-0,07
-0,19
-0,17 -0,16
-0,28
-0,35
-0,30
-0,25
-0,20
-0,15
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Tax arrears Tax arrears ex.
28. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
27
Region. The value of the index of expected changes in the number of workers significantly depends on the
region where the enterprise is located. The highest indicator of expectations was recorded for the Odesa (0.11)
region, the city of Kyiv (0.10), Kyiv, and Khmelnytskyy (0.09 each) regions. It is the lowest for Lviv (-0.03),
Kharkiv, and Sumy (-0.08 each) regions.
Sector. The highest index of expectations is for the metalworking (0.12) and woodworking (0.09) industries. The
construction materials production of building materials (-0.10) and the printing (-0.18) industry have the lowest
indicators.
Fig. 21. Indices of changes in the number of workers
WORKERS ON FORCED LEAVE
Changes compared to the previous month
Enterprises slowed down the rate of reduction in the number of personnel on forced leave, as evidenced by a
slight increase in the indicator. The NUMBER OF WORKERS ON FORCE LEAVE INDEX increased slightly in January
compared to December, from -0.20 to -0.18. The share of business representatives who reported an increase in
the number of workers on forced leave increased from 5.8% to 7.8%, while the share of those who indicated a
decrease fell from 26.3% to 25.3 %. The share of those for whom the situation has not changed over the past
month remained almost unchanged and is 67.6% (it was 67.9%).
Size. The highest and only positive is the index of micro-enterprises, which is 0.02, and the value of the index of
large enterprises is -0.10. The indicators of small (-0.22) and medium (-0.29) enterprises are the lowest and
approximately the same.
Region. Among the various regions, the largest increase in the indicator is observed for enterprises in Sumy
(0.27), Kyiv (0.26), Vinnytsya (0.21), and Khmelnytskyy (0.20) regions. And a decrease in the number of workers
on forced leave is most often reported in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Ternopil regions (-1.00 for each).
Sector. The woodworking (0.14), machine building (0.03), and chemical (zero) industries have the worst
indicators for the number of workers on forced leave. The indicators of all other sectors have a negative value,
and the lowest are the indicators of printing (-0.40) and food (-0.31) industries.
-0,54
-0,30
-0,16
-0,09
-0,03
-0,09 -0,08 -0,08 -0,09
0,01
0,03
0,11
0,04 0,03
-0,02 -0,03
0,00
0,04
-0,60
-0,50
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov,22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Number of workers Number of workers exp.
29. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
28
Fig. 22. Indices of changes in the number of workers on forced leave
Expected change in the number of workers on forced leave
Enterprises that have workers on forced leave also expect a slight increase in the indicator in the next three
months. The index of expected changes in the number of workers on forced leave increased slightly, from -0.28
to -0.26, although the indicator of those who plan to reduce the number of such workers in the future is still
high. The share of enterprises at which the number of employees on forced leave is expected to increase grew
from 1.7% to 2.3%. At the same time, the share of those who believe that the number of such personnel at their
company will decrease slightly decreased from 30.3% to 28.3%. And the share of those who believe there will be
no changes increased from 68.0% to 69.4%.
Size. Micro-enterprises are the least likely to expect an increase in the number of workers on forced leave; their
index has only positive value of 0.06. The indicator for large enterprises is -0.21, and for medium-sized
enterprises, the indicator is -0.29. The lowest value of the indicator is for small enterprises (-0.35).
Region. Indicators of Khmelnytskyy (0.29), Sumy (0.09), and Chernihiv (0.09) regions have the highest value of
the index, while indicators of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk (-1.00 each) and Ternopil (-0, 95) regions are the lowest.
Sector. The highest expectations index for the number of workers on forced leave is for the machine building
(0.07) and woodworking (0.06) industry (0.06). The indicator of construction materials production is zero.
Indicators of other sectors have a negative value, and the lowest is the indicator of the food (-0.40) and printing
(-0.33) industries.
SKILLED AND UNSKILLED WORKERS
In January, it became somewhat more difficult to find skilled workers, as evidenced by the increase in the
index, while the situation with the search for unskilled personnel remains unchanged. The value of THE INDEX OF
DIFFICULTIES IN FINDING SKILLED WORKERS increased from 0.12 to 0.19. The value of the INDEX OF DIFFICULTIES IN FINDING
UNSKILLED WORKERS remains almost unchanged and is 0.06 (it was 0.05 in December). The share of company
managers who indicated that skilled workers are more difficult to find increased from 18.8% to b20.9%. At the
same time, the share of those who find it more difficult to find unskilled workers remained almost unchanged at
11.2% (it was 11.3%). The percentage of those who find it easier to find skilled workers decreased from 5.4% to
2.0%. And the share of those who find it easier to find unskilled workers is 5.9% (it was 5.8%). At the same time,
the share of those who do not feel any changes in the search for skilled workers increased from 75.8% to 77.1%,
and for unskilled workers, the percentage remained unchanged at 82.9%.
0,35
0,05 0,06
0,01 0,00
-0,09
-0,20 -0,20 -0,18
-0,01
-0,22
-0,14
-0,03
0,02
-0,17
-0,25
-0,28 -0,26
-0,40
-0,30
-0,20
-0,10
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23 Feb.23
Workers on forced leave Workers on forced leave exp.
30. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
29
Fig. 23. Indices of changes in skilled and unskilled workers
Skilled workers
Size. Depending on the size of the enterprise, the value of the index is lower and approximately the same for
large (0.16) and medium (0.17) enterprises, while for small (0.23) and micro enterprises (0.24), the indicator is
slightly higher.
Region. Significant regional differences in the labor market were recorded. It is easier to search for skilled
workers in the Ternopil region, whose indicator has a single negative value (-0.05). The hardest is in Chernihiv
(1.00) and Dnipropetrovsk (0.95) regions and in Kyiv city (0.70).
Sector. The printing (0.10) and food (0.14) industries have fewer difficulties finding skilled workers. It is more
difficult to find skilled workers for the woodworking industry (0.35) and machine building (0.33).
Unskilled workers
Size. Micro (0.03) and small (0.02) enterprises have less difficulties in finding unskilled labor, while medium
(0.06) and large (0.09) enterprises have slightly more difficulties.
Region. It is easiest to find unskilled workers in Sumy (-0.78), Kyiv (-0.12), Chernivtsi (-0.06), and Odesa (-0.03)
regions. The most difficulties with finding unskilled workers are in Dnipropetrovsk (0.90), Khmelnytskyy, and
Zhytomyr (0.50 each) regions.
Sector. The worst indicators for finding unskilled workers are in the metalworking (0.19) and woodworking
industries (0.17), and for machine building (-0.06) and printing (zero) industries, the indicators are the lowest.
0,24
0,18
0,06
0,09
0,17
0,11 0,12
0,19
-0,01
-0,06 -0,07 -0,07
0,09
0,02
0,05 0,06
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23
Skilled workers Unskilled workers
31. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
30
SPECIAL PART OF THE SURVEY
THE IMPACT OF WAR ON ENTERPRISES
Challenges for businesses in wartime
In January 2023, the problem of electricity, water, and heat supply outages took the first place in the ranking of
obstacles for the surveyed businesses. For the third month since November 2022, this problem, caused by
massive Russian missile attacks, has become the main one for the surveyed businesses. In January, 79% of the
respondents reported it. This share has practically not changed during the last three months.
The problem of rising prices for raw materials and supplies is in the second place in the rating of obstacles in
January 2023. For four months in a row (from October 2022 to January 2023), about 70% of enterprises have
indicated it; in the last survey, this share was 69%.
Difficulties transporting raw materials or goods through the territory of Ukraine have become more noticeable
for the surveyed businesses. This problem, which was indicated by 39% of companies in January 2023, came in
the third place in the rating of business obstacles. In the previous survey wave, 33% of respondents reported it.
This obstacle shared third place with the problem of work hazards. The same share of respondents - 39% - in
January 2023 said that it was unsafe to work. However, the sharpness of this problem has decreased compared
to the previous two months: in November and December 2022, 46%-47% of companies reported a danger to
their work. Despite this, the share of enterprises considering it is unsafe to work in January 2023 is still higher
than during May-October 2022: in this period, the corresponding share of business did not exceed 34%3
.
Disruption of supply chains ends the top five obstacles for businesses surveyed in January 2023. During the last
two months – December 2022 and January 2023 – the share of businesses indicating this problem is 35% or
more. The problem's effect increased again after September-November 2022; the share of respondents who
faced it gradually decreased.
In January, businesses spoke more often about the decrease in demand for companies' products or services
(32%) and the lack of labor due to conscription and migration of workers (22%). These problems took
respectively sixth and seventh place in the ranking of obstacles. However, they are mentioned less often than in
the spring-summer of 2022, when a decrease in demand was a problem for more than 40% of enterprises and a
lack of workers, for more than 30%.
15% of enterprises said they faced a lack of working capital or the problem of state regulation of the exchange
rate. As a result, these problems shared the eighth place in the ranking of obstacles. It is worth noting that the
problem of lack of funds has become less acute compared to the previous month: in December 2022, 22% of
surveyed enterprises reported it.
Up to 10% of enterprises indicated the remaining problems – lack of fuel, damage to property or goods due to
military actions, and corruption. In addition, in January 2023, the tax invoices blocking was added to the list of
obstacles for the first time. 3% of enterprises indicated this obstacle. Another 3% of respondents added their
own options for obstacles, among which were the lack of raw materials and a decrease in people's incomes
were most often mentioned. And about 1% of businesses surveyed in January 2023 said they had not faced any
problems.
Fig. 24. The most important problems for the surveyed businesses
3
The first wave of this survey was conducted in May 2022.
32. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
31
79%
69%
39%
39%
35%
32%
22%
15%
15%
10%
6%
5%
3%
1%
80%
71%
33%
47%
37%
30%
19%
22%
19%
8%
4%
4%
1%
78%
68%
33%
46%
21%
30%
16%
22%
22%
12%
5%
1%
0%
51%
70%
41%
33%
28%
29%
16%
23%
25%
13%
6%
1%
1%
4%
63%
41%
18%
33%
30%
15%
37%
26%
8%
6%
9%
4%
5%
58%
46%
26%
31%
13%
32%
28%
13%
6%
5%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Interruptions of electricity, water or heat supply
Rising prices for raw materials/goods
Difficulties with transportation of raw materials/goods
through the territory of Ukraine
It is dangerous to work
Disruption of supply chains
Decrease in demand for products/services
Lack of personnel due to conscription and/or migration
Lack of working capital
Government regulation of the exchange rate
Lack of fuel
Damage to property/goods as a result of hostilities
Corruption
Blocking of tax invoices
There were no problems
Jan.23 Dec.22 Nov.22 Oct.22 Sept.22 Aug.22 Jul.22
33. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
32
Challenges for businesses by size. The acutance of the main problem for businesses in January 2023 –
electricity, water, and heat supply outages – does not differ significantly for companies of different sizes. At the
same time, the next most common problem – the increase in prices for raw materials or supplies – is mentioned
by big businesses more often than the rest of the respondents. The corresponding share of respondents here is
77%, while among smaller enterprises, it is from 64% to 69%.
With the increase in the size of enterprises, the importance of such problems as difficulties transporting raw
materials or goods through the territory of Ukraine and the lack of labor force increases. While 27% of micro-
enterprises report difficulties transporting raw materials or goods, more than 40% of large and medium-sized
enterprises report such difficulties. Similarly, while only 7% of enterprises felt a lack of labor in micro-
businesses, this share was 27% and 26%, respectively, for medium and large enterprises.
In addition, micro-enterprises are less likely than larger enterprises to report that it is unsafe to work (22%) and
that supply chains are disrupted (24%).
Challenges for businesses by sector. Enterprises of various industries report the impact of the main obstacle –
electricity, water, and heat supply outages – at approximately the same level4
. Among others, the printing
industry stands out in this regard – here, in January 2023, all surveyed enterprises reported they were hindered
by this problem.
Representatives of the food industry are more likely than businesses in other sectors to report rising prices
(81%) and difficulties transporting raw materials or goods across the territory of Ukraine (51%). The highest
share of companies that say it is unsafe to work is in the machine-building industry (49%). Companies in the
chemical, food and printing industries were more likely than others to experience supply chain disruptions in
January (from 38% to 42%).
Challenges for businesses by region. Businesses in different areas differ in their assessment of the impact of the
various disruptions to doing business caused by the full-scale war5
. Electricity, water, and heat supply outages
were a significant obstacle in January 2023 for businesses in most regions covered by this survey. They became
especially noticeable in Zakarpattya and Cherkasy regions, where all respondents (100%) indicated this problem,
and in Zaporizhzhya, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kirovohrad, and Khmelnytskyy regions, where more than 90% of local
businesses reported it.
The problem of rising prices for raw materials or supplies is most often reported in Zhytomyr, Ivano-Frankivsk,
Lviv, and Ternopil regions (more than 90% of enterprises). Difficulties transporting goods or raw materials
through Ukraine's territory are most felt by businesses of the Vinnytsya region (71%). The fact that it is unsafe to
work is the most common in Ivano-Frankivsk, Poltava, and Kharkiv regions (more than 80%).
The war impact on capacity/production volumes
In January, businesses remained resilient to Russian terrorist attacks, but the production recovery was
inactive. In January, only 3% of companies surveyed reported they stopped their activities during the war
(almost at the level of September-December).6
Also, the share of enterprises operating at less than 25% of pre-
war capacity remains low - only 5% in January (also 5% in December). The percentage of companies operating at
full capacity and more (4% of enterprises against 3% in December) and almost at full capacity (43% in January
against 44% in December) remained low in January compared to pre-war volumes. Also, the share of enterprises
operating at 50 - 74% has hardly changed: 29% in January against 30% in December.
4
This analysis does not include companies of agriculture, construction, trade, and services, as well as enterprises
included in the category "Other production."
5
Regions in which no enterprises were surveyed are not included in the comparison. In addition, the answers of
respondents in the Mykolayiv region are not included in the comparison by regions, as the number of respondents
in this region is insufficient for statistical comparison. For more details, see the "Sample" section.
6
A significant sample expansion compared to the previous month could also have a minor impact on the results.
34. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
33
Thus, in January, the business operated at approximately the same capacity as the previous month. In total,
47% of respondents worked at almost full, full, and more than full production capacities in January, December,
and November. That is, back in November, the business managed to master the situation and maintain
production processes even during power cuts, in particular, due to additional power supply sources. As a result,
this transformed into a relatively stable winter passage (see section "Impact of the power cuts"). However, the
situation remains less optimistic for certain industries and micro-businesses.
Fig. 25. The impact of war on the enterprises' work (% of respondents)
Results for businesses by size. Throughout the war, micro-businesses constantly remain more sensitive to its
negative effects. Micro-businesses also suffer more from power outages (see the Impact of power cuts section).
In January, 12% of micro-businesses did not work (16% in December, 13% in November, and 10% in October).
Micro-enterprises are more sensitive to changes in the business environment, which is reflected in worse
assessments for most indicators. In comparison, small businesses have almost completely resumed work (3%
were out of work). Among large companies, a small share of enterprises also did not work (2% in January against
0% in December). However, the surveyed medium-sized enterprises have fully resumed work. Thus, in general,
enterprises of all sizes were able to stabilize their work.
Among medium and large businesses, there remains the largest share of enterprises that maintain production at
almost full and full capacity compared to the pre-war period - 54% of medium enterprises and 55% of large
enterprises, respectively. At the same time, the small business experienced a slight worsening of the situation -
the indicator decreased from 47% in December to 41% in January. The situation in micro-business improved, for
which the corresponding indicator increased from 21% in December to 25% in January.
10% 8%
3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
17%
14%
12%
7% 6% 6% 7% 5% 5%
16%
17%
16%
14%
13% 16%
18%
16% 16%
26%
19%
23%
33%
30%
33% 26%
30% 29%
17%
30% 36%
36%
41%
36% 43% 44% 43%
15% 12% 10% 8% 8% 8%
3% 3% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23
0% utilization capacity up to 25% 25%-49% 50%-74% 75%-99% 100% and higher capacity
35. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
34
Fig. 26. The share of enterprises operating almost at full and full capacity (75 - 99%, 100%, and more) compared to the pre-war
period (by enterprise size, %)
Results for businesses by sector. The list of industries-leaders in recovery has undergone minor changes for the
first time. On the one hand, in January, the food industry is again in the first place (as in December). For
example, 62% of food industry enterprises worked almost at full and full capacity in December, which is almost
at the level of December (63%). The light industry obtained second place with 46% (it was also 46%, but the
third place in December). At the same time, capacity utilization in the printing industry continued to decrease. If
in November, 75% of the industry representatives worked almost at full capacity, then in December, this
indicator decreased to 54%, and in January, it fell to 33%. In contrast, the situation in other industries has
improved, where the share of enterprises operating at almost full and full capacity has increased. The
corresponding indicator increased in machine building (from 33% in December to 37% in January) and the
chemical industry (from 22% to 35%). The worst situation is in construction materials production, as in the
industry, only 14% of respondents were working at near full and full capacity (25% in December).
Fig. 27. The share of industrial enterprises operating almost at full and full capacity (75 - 99%, 100% and more) compared to the
prewar period, % of respondents by sector
16%
22%
15%
17%
15%
24%
32%
21%
25%
28%
48%
40%
47%
42% 42%
47%
41%
42%
54%
51%
57%
48%
53% 53%
54%
30%
46% 51%
55%
49% 48%
48%
55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
May.22 Jun.22 Jul.22 Aug.22 Sep.22 Oct.22 Nov.22 Dec.22 Jan.23
Micro Small Medium Large
36. Business Survey / For Fair and Transparent Customs New Monthly Enterprises Survey. January 2023
35
Results by region7
. As in previous waves of the survey, business in the western regions is operating at the
highest level of capacity utilization. As in the previous wave of the survey, 100% of enterprises in the Ivano-
Frankivsk, Lviv, and Ternopil regions worked almost at full capacity in January. At the same time, it somewhat
equalized between different regions of Ukraine. In particular, the corresponding indicator is 100% in the Poltava
region and 92% in the Odesa region. The situation remains difficult in the front-line Zaporizhzhya region, in
which, as in November and December, there are no enterprises working at high capacity compared to the pre-
war period. The corresponding indicators are also low in Zakarpattya (3% at full and almost full capacity),
Kharkiv (8%), Cherkasy (13%), Sumy (16%), Kirovohrad (19%) regions, and the city of Kyiv (24%). However, for
example, in the Zakarpattya and Cherkasy regions, the situation is more optimistic, as 70% and 67% of the
surveyed enterprises operate at 50-74% capacity, respectively.
IMPACT OF POWER CUTS
In the ninth wave of the survey, industrial enterprises were again asked to assess the impact of the power
supply cuts on their operations. The obtained results confirm that in December 2022, the problem of power
outages covered a larger share of enterprises compared to November. In particular, in December, 89% of
companies temporarily suspended work due to power outages (82% in November). Another 6% of companies
worked all the time (4% in November), even during outages, and 5% of companies had no outages at all (14% in
November). At the same time, 30% of enterprises did not work 1-10% of the working time (31% in November).
Additionally, 30% of enterprises did not work 11-25% of the time (26% in November) and 19% - 26-50% of the
time (the indicator was at the level of the previous month). The most critical situation was in 11% of enterprises,
which did not work more than half of the time (51 - 100%) due to the power supply cuts. The corresponding
indicator increased almost twice; it indicates a certain worsening of the situation in December (6% in
November).
On average, businesses lost 23% of total working time due to power cuts in December, which is slightly higher
than the previous month (21% in November). However, the situation depends on the size of the business,
industry, and region.
Fig. 28. The impact of power cuts on the enterprises' work, % of respondents
7
In the Kharkiv region, the number of respondents (fullness of the subsample) is insufficient to analyze the answers to
this question.
6%
19%
26%
31%
4%
14%
11%
19%
30%
30%
6%
5%
0% 20% 40%
51-100% of working time
26-50% of working time
11-25% of working time
1-10% of working time
0% (worked all the time)
No power cuts