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Monthly Update From Mansukh                                     (For Private Circulation Only)                                                                                               Issue : October 2011
     Contents




                  1                 2                    3                    4                            5                               6                                         7                                8
                Market         Global               Economy           Technical              Fundamental                            Market                          Commodity                                    Auxiliary
                Review        Snapshot               Update             Picks                   Picks                              Tutorials                          Section                                     Section




      FROM THE DESK OF RESEARCH

     I   ndian equity indices went on to undo all the good work done in           case. The sharp plunge came despite the group's clarification that it was
         the September F&O expiry session as they shaved off about one            not a beneficiary of any telecom licence issued in January, 2008.
         and half a percent and drifted below the psychological 16,500            Meanwhile, local sentiments were also undermined by reports that
     (Sensex)and 4,950 (Nifty) levels on Friday. Furthermore, the                 India's revenue collection during the second quarter of current financial
     frontline indices even got obliterated by 12.8% for the quarter              year has declined significantly, which is indicative of the fact that Asia's
     ended September 30, 2011, the biggest quarterly decline since the            third largest economy is slowing down, due to the weak global economic
     25% plunge in the October-December quarter of 2008 amid the                  environment and nonstop hike by RBI. The overall advance tax collections
                                                            g l o b a l
                                                            financial                                      Volume* & Volatility Index (Nifty - Sep 2011)
                                                            crisis and
                                                                                      2500                     Cash (Rs bn)               F & O (Rs bn)                     Volatility %                         40
                                                            their third
                                                                                      2000                                                                                                                       30
                                                            straight
                                                                                      1500
                                                            quarterly                                                                                                                                            20
                                                                                      1000




                                                                                                                                                                                         131.2
                                                                                               103.0


                                                                                                            103.3


                                                                                                                         104.2


                                                                                                                                  120.4


                                                                                                                                               107.7




                                                                                                                                                                        102.4




                                                                                                                                                                                                    112.6
                                                            decline. The




                                                                                                                                                            97.8
                                                                                       500                                                                                                                       10
                                                            domestic
                                                                                         0                                                                                                                       0
                                                            bourses
                                                            were once                  *NSE 20-Sep 21-Sep 22-Sep 23-Sep 26-Sep 27-Sep 28-Sep 29-Sep 30-Sep
                                                            a g a i n
                                                            tormented
                                                                                             Call Put Analysis (Nifty Oct 2011 series)                                                           Call     Put
                                                            by global
                                                                                                                                   57




                                                                                                                                                                                                  OI in Lakhs
                                                                                                                                            54


                                                                                      60




                                                                                                                                                                                     50
                                                            developmen
                                                                                                                    43




                                                                                      50
                                                                                                       40




     ts on the last trading session of the week as investors fretted over
                                                                                                                                                        37
                                                                                                                                                               36
                                                                                                                             33




                                                                                      40
                                                                                                                                                                   30
                                                                                                                                                                         30



                                                                                                                                                                                                  30
     global economic growth prospects which prompted them to take
                                                                                             26




                                                                                                                                                                                                            24
                                                                                      30
                                                                                                                                                       18




     profits off the table amid little signs of recovery. The better than
                                                                                                                                          15




                                                                                      20
                                                                                                                                                                                10

     expected US GDP data which showed that the economy grew at a                     10                                                                                                    7
                                                                                                                                  4




                                                                                                                                                                                                             3
                                                                                                               3




                                                                                                                                                                                                    3
     1.3% pace in the Q2 along with the upbeat US Jobs data failed to
                                                                                                                         1
                                                                                           0

                                                                                                       1




                                                                                       0
     bolster local sentiments.                                                             4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400
     On the domestic front, the Union Cabinet approved the new Mines
     and Minerals Development and Regulation Bill, 2011 which will                have declined to 12% in July-September 2011 from 19% in April-June 2011.
     mandate companies operating in the sector to provide 26 percent of           Meanwhile, the finance ministry on September 29, said the government in
     post-tax profit for the welfare of affected people, a move intended to       the second half of the current financial year would borrow an additional
     benefit mostly tribals. The development may hurt mining                      Rs 52,800 crore from the market, more than the budget estimate, sending
     companies like Coal India, Hindustan Zinc, Tata Steel, Sesa Goa              bond yields higher. However, the government is hopeful that this
     and JSPL by pushing down their profits and margins. Furthermore,             additional borrowing will not affect the government's fiscal deficit target
     Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group's stocks like Reliance                           of 4.6% of the GDP in 2011-12. Conclusively 4680-4700 could be the key
     Communications, Reliance Capital, R Power and Reliance                       support zone for the October series. Any closing below this range may
     Infrastructure sank deeper into the red terrain and suffered nasty           open the flood gates and we might see 4500-4530 in a short span of time.
     lacerations in the range of 3-13% after reports that the CBI told the        On the flip side 5250-5270 may be the resistance zone where we might see
     Supreme Court that three Reliance Group executives, Gautam                   some sort of consolidation.
     Doshi, Surendra Pipara and Hari Nair, may turn approvers in the


                                  DEAR ALL, WE WISH U AND YOUR FAMILY A VERY HAPPY DIWALI. MAY GOD
                                      FULFILL ALL YOUR WISHES IN WEALTH, HEALTH & HAPPINESS…




     Visit www.moneysukh.com
                                                                         make more, for sure.
     or sms 'mansukh' to 56767
GLOBAL SNAPSHOT                                                                             make more, for sure.




                                   OPERATION TWIST- NOT MUCH EXPECTATIONS THOUGH MORE CONVINCING

    The Federal Reserve has broadcast its most recent endeavor to push the
    economy back to existence. In the extensively predictable move, named
    Operation Twist, it is kind of undertaking, in excess of the next nine months, to
    get rid of some $400 billion in short-term government bonds it possess and
    make use of these proceeds to acquire government bonds that grown-up in 6-30
    years. The Fed strong-willed to show aggression on both frontages by engaging
    in an exchange operation by purchasing long-term bonds at the same time as
    simultaneously selling short-term bills. This operation was projected to
    wrestle the depression by lowering long-term interest rates to arouse domestic
    investment, and the BOP discrepancy by lifting short-term interest rates to
    create a center of attention for foreign investment to the United States in the
    course of a relatively high rate of return. This exchange policy became
    acknowledged as Operation Twist for the reason that the Fed attempted to
    synthetically flatten or twist the characteristically upward-sloping yield arc.
                                                                                        quashing hopes of a possible European Central Bank interest-rate cut.
    As of know, many policymakers and analysts should have                              Also, German Economy Minister Philipp Roesler stated German
    documented that "long-term interest rates cannot be considerably                    lawmakers were unlikely to back any further increase in the European
    condensed as a result of money market publicity stunt. In such scenario             Financial Stability Facility beyond the measures approved.
    It is quite obvious to have a doubt e, that the this time Fed would not be          Ahead of the opening bell, the Commerce Department stated that
    more successful today than it was 30 years ago in attempting to twist               personal income in August fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1%, the first
    the yield curve. Undeniably now that interest rate ceilings on deposit              decline since October 2009. Though, Consumer spending increased a
    accounts are no longer in effect, there are no non-natural forces holding           seasonally adjusted 0.2%. September's reading of consumer sentiment
    these rates at any fastidious level. What's more, if point of view has a            rose to 59.4, recovering from a nearly three-year low of 55.7 in August,
    role in determining long term interest rates, then the interest rate                according to a Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan gauge.
    spread comprises an inflation constituent that will not fade away                   Meanwhile, manufacturing activity in the Chicago region, expanded at
    simply because fewer long-term bonds are circulating in the market. As              a more rapid pace, rising to 60.4 in September from 56.5 in August.
    long as the swapping operation leaves inflationary expectations                     Meanwhile Crude prices got pummeled by around three and half a
    unchanged, no lasting narrowing of the interest rates spread can occur.             percent on Thursday (29 Sep 2011) as investors continued to square off
    US MARKETS: The US markets plunged on 29 Sep 2011, as selling                       hefty positions from the commodity amid heightened worries over its
    accelerated in the final hour of trading and that led the worst quarterly           demand prospects at time when top consumers like China and the US
    loss for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index since the end of 2008, as the              are facing growth concerns. In addition, the ongoing sovereign debt
    sovereign debt crisis in Europe and fears of a global slowdown                      trouble in Europe and a strengthening US dollar too played a spoilsport
    overshadowed improving economic condition in the US. Euro-zone                      and even led the oil prices to the worst quarterly performance since the
    inflation accelerated to a 3% annual pace in September, effectively                 fourth quarter of 2008.


        U.S. Pending Home Sales                                                         U.S. Q2 GDP Revised Up to 1.3%




        Source: reutersindia.com

                                      “We live by the Golden Rule. Those who have the gold make the rules.”

2
make more, for sure.                                                  ECONOMY UPDATE



                                 GOVT PLANNED TO CUT IN SECURITY TRANSACTION TAX TO LIFT SENTIMENTS

                                                                                   duties vary from state to state, the effort is to define a uniform rate and
                                                                                   persuade the states to fix it accordingly. Maharashtra has the highest
                                                                                   stamp duty collection with 42% of total inflows. It charges at the rate of
                                                                                   0.002% on the non-delivery-based and 0.01% on delivery-based.
                                                                                   Moreover In order to avoid overlapping of various regulatory
                                                                                   authorities and to increase the accountability among the regulators, the
                                                                                   Prime Minister's Office (PMO) has started working on a new law which
                                                                                   will monitor and regulate the economic regulators in India. This move
                                                                                   of the PMO is expected to provide some clarity when there are dark
                                                                                   clouds looming over the integrity as well as independence of several
                                                                                   regulators across sectors like petroleum, securities markets and
                                                                                   airports.
                                                                                   BOND MARKETS: Bond yields were trading steady with positive bias
                                                                                   as risk taking returned to global markets on expectations that European
                                                                                   leaders would chalk out a plan to contain the debt crisis. However, yields
                                                                                   were steady owing to the prevailing caution ahead of the federal
                                                                                   borrowing meet on Thursday. Central bank and finance ministry officials
                                                                                   are scheduled to meet on Thursday to decide the schedule of government
In order to lift the market sentiments, government is considering a cut in the     borrowing for the second half of this fiscal year. Most market participants
Securities Transaction Tax (STT), along with this, the Ministry of Finance is      expect the government to raise its market borrowing by Rs 30,000-70,000
also mulling a rationalized and uniform stamp duty on securities transactions.     crore, depending on its fiscal performance.
This move of the government has been welcomed by the market, which has been        On the global front, US Treasury prices fell on Monday on hopes that
under pressure because of the global uncertainties. However, the                   European leaders will commit more cash to bail out debt-laden nations
recommendation is still under consideration. The decision of cutting the STT       revived some appetite for stocks and reduced demand for safe-haven
is backed by the rationale that the tax has not generated much revenue. In first   US government debt. The yields on 10-year benchmark 7.80% - 2021
five months of current financial year, the government generated around Rs          bonds were trading at 8.32% compared with Monday's close of 8.31%.
2,223 crore from STT, which is almost 10% less than the last financial year.
                                                                                   The benchmark five-year interest rate swap was trading at 6.81%
                                                                                   compared with 6.80% at the previous close. Meanwhile Interbank call
The STT was introduced in 2004-05, when P Chidambaram was                          money rates were trading steady at 8.25/30% as supply matched the
Finance Minister, the STT is charged on sales/purchase of share,                   demand on the second day of the reporting fortnight. Cash rates were
equity-oriented mutual funds and futures and options in securities.                also steady on Tuesday as pressure on supply due to advance tax
The recommendation of cutting or removing the STT came up in the                   outflows was negated by banks' borrowings through the central bank's
meeting between the finance ministry and Stock Exchanges. It was said              repo counter. However, the rates may rise in the coming days as banks
that this tax constituted a major component of the transaction cost. Due           may scurry to cover up their mandated needs for the reporting cycle.
to the high cost and to make trading more attractive, there was need to            The indicative call rates which closed at 8.25/30% on Monday were
reduce or remove the tax, the exchanges are believed to have said in the           contributions made from Andhra Bank, AXIS Bank, Bank of America,
meeting.                                                                           Bank of Baroda, Bank of India, Canara Bank, J P Morgan Chase,
In the same time, the ministry of finance is making the draft to present           Citibank N.A., Corporation Bank, Credit Agricole Bank, Indusind
a proposal before cabinet for rationalizing stamp duty. This also                  Bank, ICICI Bank, ICICI Securities, IDBI Bank, Jammu and Kashmir
involves removing the rates in some states. As stamp duty is the state             Bank, Punjab National Bank, RBS, Societe Generale, Standard
matter, the discussions are also going on with the states. The stamp               Chartered Bank, State Bank of India, Union Bank of India, ING Vysya
                                                                                   Bank, BNP Paribas, HDFC Bank, P&S Bank.

     India Aug Inflation up 9.78% YoY                                               India Raises Repo Rates by 25bps




      Source: reutersindia.com


                                      “Plan for the unplanned and you'll level out the ups and downs of your financial roller coaster.”


                                                                                                                                                                 3
TECHNICAL PICKS                                                                      make more, for sure.




                                                              QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

    Jain Irrigation, micro irrigation company has reported has         JAIN IRRIGATION SYSTEMS LTD
    reported a 57.55% growth in its net profit at Rs 82.35 crore for
    the first quarter ended June 30, 2011 against Rs 52.31 crore for
    the same quarter last year. Net sales of the company went up
    by 29.3% to Rs 931.58 crore in the quarter under review
    compared to Rs 720.60 crore for the same quarter last year.
    Recently Jain Irrigation Systems and Coca-Cola India have
    jointly launched 'Unnati' - a unique partnership project with
    farmers to demonstrate and enable adoption of ultra-high
    density plantation practice for mangoes. The project will
    encourage sustainable, modern agricultural practices and
    help double mango yields, thereby increasing the income of
    the farmers. Moreover Jain Irrigation, the world's second
    largest manufacturer of drip irrigation systems, has signed a
    memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Rwandan
    Government in Africa for developing irrigation solutions for
    local farmers and has already started work on one project.
    On technical perspective, after taking significant correction
    from the highs of Rs 225, scrip has shown crucial resistance
    below Rs 125 level. At current juncture we believe scrip has
    the potential to recover from the current level as its technical
    indicators i.e. RSI and MACD also suggest some technical           SCRIP NAME    TRIGGER PRICE    TARGET 1   TARGET 2   STOP LOSS    DURATION

    pull back in near term. Hence we recommended 'Buy' in this
                                                                       JISLJALEQS       140-145         170        175         125        1 Month
    stock.




    Petronet LNG is one of the leading players in oil and natural
    gas industry space. It has India's first and largest LNG
                                                                       PETRONET LNG LTD
    supply terminal located at Dahej. The company's net profit
    for the quarter has zoomed by 130.50% at Rs 256.71 crore as
    compared to Rs 111.37 crore for the quarter ended June 30,
    2010. Its total income has surged by 76.06% to Rs 4623.30
    crore for the quarter under review from Rs 2625.97 crore for
    the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Petronet
    LNG (PLL) is planning to set up its third LNG terminal in
    Dhamra port in Orissa, which will be incidentally the first on
    east coast. The company also plans to start coastal trade of
    LNG through daughter vessels beginning 2012-end, once the
    Kochi terminal is operational to large users in Sri Lanka,
    Andaman and Nicobar Islands and others. Recently
    Petronet LNG has signed a memorandum of understanding
    (MoU) with HLL Lifecare for long-term supply of Liquefied
    Natural Gas (LNG) to power HLL factories. This tie-up is
    meant to ensure uninterrupted energy supply for the
    operations of HLL Lifecare.
    On technical viewpoint, stock has shown downward bias
    after showing double top formation around Rs 186. In close
    proximity we believe stock has strong support around 145-
    150 where possibility of bounce back can't be rule out.             SCRIP NAME    TRIGGER PRICE   TARGET 1   TARGET 2    STOP LOSS   DURATION
    Moreover it's RSI and other technical indicators also
                                                                        PETRONET         150-155         175        180         135        1 Month
    displaying some oversold indicators in near term. Hence                LNG
    investors are advised to BUY this stock for a price target of
    Rs175-180 in near term.

          “Successful people save in prosperous times so they have a financial cushion in times of recession.”


4
make more, for sure.                                                     FUNDAMENTAL PICKS



                                                            FUNDAMENTAL PICK
IDBI Bank Ltd                                                                                                               Target Price: 151
Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI Bank), established in             Expansion of Branches will help to improve the business growth…
1964 is wholly owned subsidiary of the RBI. IDBI offers personalized         As on Q1FY12, IDBI Bank has network of 883 branches, 1459 ATMs and

banking and financial solutions to its clients in the retail and corporate   598 centers across the countryside, out of total branches of IDBI, 38%

banking arena through its large network of 883 Branches and 1459             branches are located in urban areas, 29% in metro cities, 23% in Semi

ATMs, spread across length and breadth of India. IDBI also provides          Urban areas and around remaining 10% in Rural areas. IDBI Bank has

financing to Agri business, Microfinance and SME sector and operating        corporate customer of more than 3000 and retail customer base of over

with its three subsidies namely IDBI Capital Market Services, IDBI           5 million. Further, Bank has planned to increase its branch network up

Home Finance, IDBI Intech, IDBI Gilts. It has also forayed into life         to 1050 by the end of FY12 and apart from this, bank has also started the

insurance business in joint collaboration with Fedral Bank and Fortis        process to set up the branches in overseas countries, bank will also open

Insurance International.                                                     Representative office in Shanghai during the same period.

                                                                             Improved CASA and NIM in Q1FY12
Financials: During the last five years (FY06-11) IDBI Bank has shown
                                                                             The merger of its housing subsidiary with itself has enhanced the Interest
CAGR growth of 28% in Interest Earned Income and 24% in PAT,
                                                                             margin of IDBI in Q1FY12. The NIM of the bank has been improved by
owing to efficient interest margins, the Net Interest Income (NII) of
                                                                             46bps to 2.07% in Q1FY12. The deposits of the bank has grown by 12% while
IDBI grew at around 69% during the same period. In FY11, the Interest
                                                                             growth in advances after adjusting the merger of housing subsidiary was
Income of the Bank surged by 22% to Rs 18600.82 crore over FY10, NII
                                                                             around 12.5% during the same period. Despite the low liquidity and a tight
of bank phenomenally jumped 92% to Rs 4328.89 crore and PAT also
                                                                             monetary policy, CASA of IDBI Bank has been improved to 17.29% in
increased by 60% to Rs 1650.32 crore. In Q1FY12 the Interest Income of
                                                                             Q1FY12 from 13% in Q12FY11. However, the impact of high interest rates
the bank grew by 31%, NII grew by 36% and PAT grew by 34%. The
                                                                             would be visible again in Q2FY12 too, but for FY12, IDBI Bank has guided
NIM for the same period stood at 2.07% while PAT margin was 5.95%.
                                                                             the CASA target between the range of 17-18%.
The Rate Hikes practice by RBI is likely to end…
RBI has been hiking rates consecutively since last 17 months, but the
                                                                             Quarter & Year Ended         Q1FY12 Q1FY11           %Chg          FY11
trend is likely to be end in upcoming months because as per the RBI the      Interest Income (Rs Cr)      5628.93     4282.15     31.5      18600.82
inflation is likely to ease in upcoming periods. In fact, the RBI has to     NII (Rs Cr)                  1152.44      844.35     36.5        6146.8
stop the rate hikes because it is also affecting the growth of the economy   NIM% (Chg in bps)                2.07       1.61      46            1.76
for FY12, in first quarter of the financial year 2012 the GDP of India       PAT (Rs Cr)                     335.1     250.89     33.6       1650.32
grew by 7.7% against 9.3% in same quarter of the financial year 2011.        PATM% (Chg in bps)               5.95       5.86       9            8.87
However, Inflation, which was 9.78% in Aug 2011 against 9.22% in July        EPS (Rs)                          3.4       3.46      1.7           16.8
2011, is still over the comfort level of RBI, the rate hikes by RBI and      Dividend (%)                       35            0     0              35
consecutively by local banks has already depressed the demand for            Equity (Rs Cr)                984.61      724.89     35.8        984.57

loan, and now RBI is likely to hold the key rates for some periods or        Data Matrix as on 30.09.2011            Key Financial Ratios (TTM)
                                                                             CMP (Rs)                      102.75 P/E (x) TTM                    5.83
may be reduce if inflation comes under control.
                                                                             52- Week High (Rs)            202.25 P/BV (x) TTM                   0.78
To Strengthen its Portfolio Invested in Commodity Exchange…                  52- Week Low (Rs)             101.25 EV/TTM EBIDTA (x)              9.67
After laying the foundation of some of the prominent institutions in
                                                                             Latest Book Value (Rs)        132.09 EV/TTM Sales (x)               2.11
India like NSE, NSDL and SHCIL with other financial institutions, IDBI
                                                                             Face Value (Rs)                    10 MCap/ TTM Sales( x)           0.51
Bank has now bought 10% stake in upcoming commodity bourse,                  Total No of Shares (Cr)         98.46 Credit/Deposits(%)           87.04
Universal Commodity Exchange (UCX). The main motive behind                   Avg. Monthly Vol. (Lakhs)       43.71 ROA (%)                       0.68
acquiring equity in UCX is to push agriculture loans through this            Market Cap (Rs Cr)            10,117 ROE (%)                        15.8
venture and other advantage for IDBI is that being a sole bank among         Beta (Sensex)                    1.26 CASA (%)                     20.88
promoters all the transactions of the exchange will be routed through        Industry P/E                     7.74 Dividend Yield (%)            3.41
IDBI Bank. However, this strategic partnership will also enable the                         Major Shareholders as on 30 June 2011
bank to strengthen its overall portfolio by including commodities, as        Promoters (%)                   64.13 FIIs (%)                      3.35
this market is growing at a rapid pace across global markets.                Non-Institutions (%)            15.93 DIIs (%)                      15.6

            “Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes little sense for those who know what they're doing.”


                                                                                                                                                          5
MARKET TUTORIALS                                                                            make more, for sure.




                                                          OPTIONS STRATEGY – MARRIED PUT

    The fear of slowdown in the economy has prolonged the selling pressure in
    the markets across the world. Equities as well commodities both the
    investment instruments are constantly declining since past many days.
    However, do you know the put option in the option trading is the only value
    which rises with the fall in the price of stock or underline assets. Actually, in
    terms of their function and their price movements, puts are essentially the
    opposite of calls. When the price of the underlying equity begins to fall, the
    value of a put option on that stock will begin to rise. Often brokers will
    provide the ability to write covered calls and to use married puts when you
    open your options account. This option strategy will focus on the function of
    married puts in a portfolio or as part of a trading strategy, which will
    definitely help to minimize the loss & maximize the profits.

    What is Married Put?
    Married put is an option strategy where investors buy shares and at
    same time, he/she makes long positions in put of the same stock with
    the same quantity. This hedging strategy or option strategy is known
    as married put strategy. Potential gains or losses from a married put               guaranteed selling price, and control over when he chooses to sell his
    strategy are created from the net effect of a long position in both the             stock.
    put and its underlying stock. Married Puts is an option trading
    hedging strategy used in conjunction with stocks in order to produce
                                                                                        Break Even Point with an exemplar
    a convex position with unlimited profit potential but limited                       The Break Even Point of Married Put option will be the sum total of
    maximum loss.                                                                       initial cost price of stocks and cost of put options you paid. To use a
                                                                                        married put option it would be required to form the combination of
    When & How to use Married Put Strategy                                              two different purchases: one of a stock position and one of a put
    Married put options is typically used with the viewpoint of availing                option. For a example, Let's say you choose to buy 100 shares of XYZ
    benefits of stock ownership (dividends, voting rights, etc.) along                  for Rs 20 per share and one XYZ September Rs 17.50 put for Rs 0.50
    with the concern of uncertain, near-term, downside market risks.                    (100 shares x Rs 0.50 = Rs 50). With this combination, you have
    Purchasing puts with the purchase of shares of the underlying stock                 purchased a stock position with a cost of Rs 20/share but have also
    is a directional and bullish strategy. The primary motivation of this               bought a form of insurance to protect yourself in case the stock
    investor is to protect his shares of the underlying security from a                 declines below Rs 17.50 before the expiration. You should remember
    decrease in market price therefore he will generally purchase a                     that for a put to be considered "married," the put and the stock must
    number of put contracts equivalent to the number of shares held.                    be bought on the same day, and you must instruct your broker that
    Married Puts is a simple option trading strategy where you simply                   the stock you have just purchased will be delivered if the put is
    buy to open one contract of at the money put options for every 100                  exercised.
    shares that you buy.

                                                                                        Conclusion: Married puts are one of the few ways that a new
    Advantages of Married Puts                                                          investor can protect the downside of an investment. This protection
    Married Put allows you to hold on to your stocks while insuring                     comes at a cost, and it is important to use this strategy only in certain
    against any losses. While the married put investor retains all benefits             situations. If you think that a particular stock will go up but you are
    of stock ownership, he has "insured" his shares against an                          wary of a possible disaster, then the married-put strategy could be
    unacceptable decrease in value during the lifetime of the put, and has              quite useful. Married puts can provide a great means of limiting your
    a limited, predefined, downside market risk. The premium paid for                   losses and helping you learn the usefulness of puts in a portfolio. As
    the put option is equivalent to the premium paid for an insurance                   in any options trade, always make sure that you consider the worst-
    policy. No matter how much the underlying stock decreases in value                  case scenario and be prepare for any kind of uncertain actions in the
    during the option's lifetime, the put contract has conveyed to him a                markets.



         “Too many of us are spending money we haven't earned to buy things we don't need to impress people we don't like.”


6
GOLD AND SILVER: KEEP ON BUYING AT EVERY DIP
We should agree that Greece should have defaulted some time ago.
Despite all the current efforts, Greece will default and that contagion
will result in a global, banking crisis. Even if we're wrong, the
mountains of money that will be created and poured into the debt hole
will benefit the gold and silver prices. The Greek debt crisis is about
stemming the spread of bank runs, the breakdown of the other PIIGS
countries debt situation, and potentially the fragmentation of the
Eurozone. We're on the brink.
In the last week, we have seen global market confidence buckle in the
face of slowing growth and what may already be a recession. This is not
the time that poorer nations can use falling cash flow to repay
mountains of debt. Talk of a 50% haircut on Greek debt should be lifted
to as high as 60% to 70% for the Greeks to be able to manage its
remaining debt in light of future, Greek cash flows.
We may be tempted to see the debt crises as a short-term problem, but
as the world's leaders agree, they're scaring the world and threatening
global financial stability. So this isn't a case of the passing flu; it
describes a congenital weakness that needs a structural solution.            pullback from $1,200 to $1,000, we've seen gold rise to $1,910 and silver
Nowhere can we see evidence of structural reforms likely to shore up         to mid-$40 area, a tremendous gain since then. What's there to prevent
confidence and repair the global financial system. The system is flawed      a similar shape to the precious metal markets going forward?
and most expect such crises to persist for the foreseeable future.
                                                                             Take a look at the function of gold and silver. Gold, in particular, is an
Investors were shocked when gold dropped from $1,850 to below                international asset and international cash. It can be used when all else
$1,600 in an almost straight line. When they saw silver drop from $40 to     fails. We saw that in the recent falls. Investors could liquidate holdings
$28 they were even more shocked. After all, since 2005 gold has come         quickly and take good profits to cover losses, loans, and margin calls in
from $300+ and silver from $6+, so a $250 drop and a $12 drop seemed         other markets. Once there's a moderate stabilizing of markets, that
to be huge. Since then we have seen the silver price recover $4 in one       lesson is remembered. Investment house strategists factor that into
day and the gold price $60 in a day, with more recovery to come. In          their policy decisions, realizing that in bad times, future profits lie in
percentage terms, when compared to other markets, we see similar falls       precious metals.
there and in similar percentages, but not the same vigor in recovery.
                                                                             In the emerging world, the fall in precious metal prices is seen as
The big picture confirms that falls, in most markets, were investors
                                                                             speculators getting out of the market and giving them an opportunity
raising liquidity to lower leverage and protect against the falls, just as
                                                                             to buy at prices they feel will allow for certain rises. Their faith in gold
we saw in 2008. This is something market observers cannot see ahead of
                                                                             and silver remains completely unshaken by the falls, which they see as
time. They accompany major shifts in investor perceptions about the
                                                                             part of the ongoing suspicions about the developed world banking
structure of global financial markets.
                                                                             system and markets speculation. To them the value of gold and silver
Just as we saw in 2009 and onwards, the loss of confidence in global         remains untouched and certain. Falls are seen as an opportunity to
financial markets doesn't recover. In the gold market, since the             buy cheaply into the precious metals.

           “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy, and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”




                                                                                                                                                            7
AUXILIARY SECTION                                                  make more, for sure.




                             ALERT FOR CLIENTS SERVICE FOR MANSUKH SECURITIES




  Introduction
  Mansukh Securities has brought Alert for Clients Service for its customers to remain informed and connected with
  the stock market while on move.

  Jaamoon Alc Features:
       1. Conditional Alerts - This feature allows users to set alerts based on price trends.
       2. Periodic Alerts - This feature allows users to set time-based alerts.
       3. Market Open and Market Close Alerts - This feature allows users to set alerts based on Market Open and
           Market Close conditions.

  Steps To Register And Use Alc Platform
        a.   Click http://www.moneysukh.com.

        b.   Click

        c.   Click on New user click here and register yourself by entering your mobile number, first name and last
             name.

        d.   SMS having your username and system generated password will be sent to your registered mobile
             number.

        e.   Using the login details you can now enter username and password and click Signin.

        f.   Once you login into the application for the first time, you will be asked to change your password. It is
             recommended to change the password although you may ignore the warning by clicking Ignore.

        g.   You can then click “Create alert” link to create your own alerts

        h.   You can also view the alerts you have created using “View alerts” link

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Monthly Magzine- October 2011-Mansukh Investment and Trading Solutions..

  • 1. Monthly Update From Mansukh (For Private Circulation Only) Issue : October 2011 Contents 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Market Global Economy Technical Fundamental Market Commodity Auxiliary Review Snapshot Update Picks Picks Tutorials Section Section FROM THE DESK OF RESEARCH I ndian equity indices went on to undo all the good work done in case. The sharp plunge came despite the group's clarification that it was the September F&O expiry session as they shaved off about one not a beneficiary of any telecom licence issued in January, 2008. and half a percent and drifted below the psychological 16,500 Meanwhile, local sentiments were also undermined by reports that (Sensex)and 4,950 (Nifty) levels on Friday. Furthermore, the India's revenue collection during the second quarter of current financial frontline indices even got obliterated by 12.8% for the quarter year has declined significantly, which is indicative of the fact that Asia's ended September 30, 2011, the biggest quarterly decline since the third largest economy is slowing down, due to the weak global economic 25% plunge in the October-December quarter of 2008 amid the environment and nonstop hike by RBI. The overall advance tax collections g l o b a l financial Volume* & Volatility Index (Nifty - Sep 2011) crisis and 2500 Cash (Rs bn) F & O (Rs bn) Volatility % 40 their third 2000 30 straight 1500 quarterly 20 1000 131.2 103.0 103.3 104.2 120.4 107.7 102.4 112.6 decline. The 97.8 500 10 domestic 0 0 bourses were once *NSE 20-Sep 21-Sep 22-Sep 23-Sep 26-Sep 27-Sep 28-Sep 29-Sep 30-Sep a g a i n tormented Call Put Analysis (Nifty Oct 2011 series) Call Put by global 57 OI in Lakhs 54 60 50 developmen 43 50 40 ts on the last trading session of the week as investors fretted over 37 36 33 40 30 30 30 global economic growth prospects which prompted them to take 26 24 30 18 profits off the table amid little signs of recovery. The better than 15 20 10 expected US GDP data which showed that the economy grew at a 10 7 4 3 3 3 1.3% pace in the Q2 along with the upbeat US Jobs data failed to 1 0 1 0 bolster local sentiments. 4300 4400 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 On the domestic front, the Union Cabinet approved the new Mines and Minerals Development and Regulation Bill, 2011 which will have declined to 12% in July-September 2011 from 19% in April-June 2011. mandate companies operating in the sector to provide 26 percent of Meanwhile, the finance ministry on September 29, said the government in post-tax profit for the welfare of affected people, a move intended to the second half of the current financial year would borrow an additional benefit mostly tribals. The development may hurt mining Rs 52,800 crore from the market, more than the budget estimate, sending companies like Coal India, Hindustan Zinc, Tata Steel, Sesa Goa bond yields higher. However, the government is hopeful that this and JSPL by pushing down their profits and margins. Furthermore, additional borrowing will not affect the government's fiscal deficit target Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group's stocks like Reliance of 4.6% of the GDP in 2011-12. Conclusively 4680-4700 could be the key Communications, Reliance Capital, R Power and Reliance support zone for the October series. Any closing below this range may Infrastructure sank deeper into the red terrain and suffered nasty open the flood gates and we might see 4500-4530 in a short span of time. lacerations in the range of 3-13% after reports that the CBI told the On the flip side 5250-5270 may be the resistance zone where we might see Supreme Court that three Reliance Group executives, Gautam some sort of consolidation. Doshi, Surendra Pipara and Hari Nair, may turn approvers in the DEAR ALL, WE WISH U AND YOUR FAMILY A VERY HAPPY DIWALI. MAY GOD FULFILL ALL YOUR WISHES IN WEALTH, HEALTH & HAPPINESS… Visit www.moneysukh.com make more, for sure. or sms 'mansukh' to 56767
  • 2. GLOBAL SNAPSHOT make more, for sure. OPERATION TWIST- NOT MUCH EXPECTATIONS THOUGH MORE CONVINCING The Federal Reserve has broadcast its most recent endeavor to push the economy back to existence. In the extensively predictable move, named Operation Twist, it is kind of undertaking, in excess of the next nine months, to get rid of some $400 billion in short-term government bonds it possess and make use of these proceeds to acquire government bonds that grown-up in 6-30 years. The Fed strong-willed to show aggression on both frontages by engaging in an exchange operation by purchasing long-term bonds at the same time as simultaneously selling short-term bills. This operation was projected to wrestle the depression by lowering long-term interest rates to arouse domestic investment, and the BOP discrepancy by lifting short-term interest rates to create a center of attention for foreign investment to the United States in the course of a relatively high rate of return. This exchange policy became acknowledged as Operation Twist for the reason that the Fed attempted to synthetically flatten or twist the characteristically upward-sloping yield arc. quashing hopes of a possible European Central Bank interest-rate cut. As of know, many policymakers and analysts should have Also, German Economy Minister Philipp Roesler stated German documented that "long-term interest rates cannot be considerably lawmakers were unlikely to back any further increase in the European condensed as a result of money market publicity stunt. In such scenario Financial Stability Facility beyond the measures approved. It is quite obvious to have a doubt e, that the this time Fed would not be Ahead of the opening bell, the Commerce Department stated that more successful today than it was 30 years ago in attempting to twist personal income in August fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1%, the first the yield curve. Undeniably now that interest rate ceilings on deposit decline since October 2009. Though, Consumer spending increased a accounts are no longer in effect, there are no non-natural forces holding seasonally adjusted 0.2%. September's reading of consumer sentiment these rates at any fastidious level. What's more, if point of view has a rose to 59.4, recovering from a nearly three-year low of 55.7 in August, role in determining long term interest rates, then the interest rate according to a Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan gauge. spread comprises an inflation constituent that will not fade away Meanwhile, manufacturing activity in the Chicago region, expanded at simply because fewer long-term bonds are circulating in the market. As a more rapid pace, rising to 60.4 in September from 56.5 in August. long as the swapping operation leaves inflationary expectations Meanwhile Crude prices got pummeled by around three and half a unchanged, no lasting narrowing of the interest rates spread can occur. percent on Thursday (29 Sep 2011) as investors continued to square off US MARKETS: The US markets plunged on 29 Sep 2011, as selling hefty positions from the commodity amid heightened worries over its accelerated in the final hour of trading and that led the worst quarterly demand prospects at time when top consumers like China and the US loss for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index since the end of 2008, as the are facing growth concerns. In addition, the ongoing sovereign debt sovereign debt crisis in Europe and fears of a global slowdown trouble in Europe and a strengthening US dollar too played a spoilsport overshadowed improving economic condition in the US. Euro-zone and even led the oil prices to the worst quarterly performance since the inflation accelerated to a 3% annual pace in September, effectively fourth quarter of 2008. U.S. Pending Home Sales U.S. Q2 GDP Revised Up to 1.3% Source: reutersindia.com “We live by the Golden Rule. Those who have the gold make the rules.” 2
  • 3. make more, for sure. ECONOMY UPDATE GOVT PLANNED TO CUT IN SECURITY TRANSACTION TAX TO LIFT SENTIMENTS duties vary from state to state, the effort is to define a uniform rate and persuade the states to fix it accordingly. Maharashtra has the highest stamp duty collection with 42% of total inflows. It charges at the rate of 0.002% on the non-delivery-based and 0.01% on delivery-based. Moreover In order to avoid overlapping of various regulatory authorities and to increase the accountability among the regulators, the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) has started working on a new law which will monitor and regulate the economic regulators in India. This move of the PMO is expected to provide some clarity when there are dark clouds looming over the integrity as well as independence of several regulators across sectors like petroleum, securities markets and airports. BOND MARKETS: Bond yields were trading steady with positive bias as risk taking returned to global markets on expectations that European leaders would chalk out a plan to contain the debt crisis. However, yields were steady owing to the prevailing caution ahead of the federal borrowing meet on Thursday. Central bank and finance ministry officials are scheduled to meet on Thursday to decide the schedule of government In order to lift the market sentiments, government is considering a cut in the borrowing for the second half of this fiscal year. Most market participants Securities Transaction Tax (STT), along with this, the Ministry of Finance is expect the government to raise its market borrowing by Rs 30,000-70,000 also mulling a rationalized and uniform stamp duty on securities transactions. crore, depending on its fiscal performance. This move of the government has been welcomed by the market, which has been On the global front, US Treasury prices fell on Monday on hopes that under pressure because of the global uncertainties. However, the European leaders will commit more cash to bail out debt-laden nations recommendation is still under consideration. The decision of cutting the STT revived some appetite for stocks and reduced demand for safe-haven is backed by the rationale that the tax has not generated much revenue. In first US government debt. The yields on 10-year benchmark 7.80% - 2021 five months of current financial year, the government generated around Rs bonds were trading at 8.32% compared with Monday's close of 8.31%. 2,223 crore from STT, which is almost 10% less than the last financial year. The benchmark five-year interest rate swap was trading at 6.81% compared with 6.80% at the previous close. Meanwhile Interbank call The STT was introduced in 2004-05, when P Chidambaram was money rates were trading steady at 8.25/30% as supply matched the Finance Minister, the STT is charged on sales/purchase of share, demand on the second day of the reporting fortnight. Cash rates were equity-oriented mutual funds and futures and options in securities. also steady on Tuesday as pressure on supply due to advance tax The recommendation of cutting or removing the STT came up in the outflows was negated by banks' borrowings through the central bank's meeting between the finance ministry and Stock Exchanges. It was said repo counter. However, the rates may rise in the coming days as banks that this tax constituted a major component of the transaction cost. Due may scurry to cover up their mandated needs for the reporting cycle. to the high cost and to make trading more attractive, there was need to The indicative call rates which closed at 8.25/30% on Monday were reduce or remove the tax, the exchanges are believed to have said in the contributions made from Andhra Bank, AXIS Bank, Bank of America, meeting. Bank of Baroda, Bank of India, Canara Bank, J P Morgan Chase, In the same time, the ministry of finance is making the draft to present Citibank N.A., Corporation Bank, Credit Agricole Bank, Indusind a proposal before cabinet for rationalizing stamp duty. This also Bank, ICICI Bank, ICICI Securities, IDBI Bank, Jammu and Kashmir involves removing the rates in some states. As stamp duty is the state Bank, Punjab National Bank, RBS, Societe Generale, Standard matter, the discussions are also going on with the states. The stamp Chartered Bank, State Bank of India, Union Bank of India, ING Vysya Bank, BNP Paribas, HDFC Bank, P&S Bank. India Aug Inflation up 9.78% YoY India Raises Repo Rates by 25bps Source: reutersindia.com “Plan for the unplanned and you'll level out the ups and downs of your financial roller coaster.” 3
  • 4. TECHNICAL PICKS make more, for sure. QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Jain Irrigation, micro irrigation company has reported has JAIN IRRIGATION SYSTEMS LTD reported a 57.55% growth in its net profit at Rs 82.35 crore for the first quarter ended June 30, 2011 against Rs 52.31 crore for the same quarter last year. Net sales of the company went up by 29.3% to Rs 931.58 crore in the quarter under review compared to Rs 720.60 crore for the same quarter last year. Recently Jain Irrigation Systems and Coca-Cola India have jointly launched 'Unnati' - a unique partnership project with farmers to demonstrate and enable adoption of ultra-high density plantation practice for mangoes. The project will encourage sustainable, modern agricultural practices and help double mango yields, thereby increasing the income of the farmers. Moreover Jain Irrigation, the world's second largest manufacturer of drip irrigation systems, has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Rwandan Government in Africa for developing irrigation solutions for local farmers and has already started work on one project. On technical perspective, after taking significant correction from the highs of Rs 225, scrip has shown crucial resistance below Rs 125 level. At current juncture we believe scrip has the potential to recover from the current level as its technical indicators i.e. RSI and MACD also suggest some technical SCRIP NAME TRIGGER PRICE TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS DURATION pull back in near term. Hence we recommended 'Buy' in this JISLJALEQS 140-145 170 175 125 1 Month stock. Petronet LNG is one of the leading players in oil and natural gas industry space. It has India's first and largest LNG PETRONET LNG LTD supply terminal located at Dahej. The company's net profit for the quarter has zoomed by 130.50% at Rs 256.71 crore as compared to Rs 111.37 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2010. Its total income has surged by 76.06% to Rs 4623.30 crore for the quarter under review from Rs 2625.97 crore for the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Petronet LNG (PLL) is planning to set up its third LNG terminal in Dhamra port in Orissa, which will be incidentally the first on east coast. The company also plans to start coastal trade of LNG through daughter vessels beginning 2012-end, once the Kochi terminal is operational to large users in Sri Lanka, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and others. Recently Petronet LNG has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with HLL Lifecare for long-term supply of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to power HLL factories. This tie-up is meant to ensure uninterrupted energy supply for the operations of HLL Lifecare. On technical viewpoint, stock has shown downward bias after showing double top formation around Rs 186. In close proximity we believe stock has strong support around 145- 150 where possibility of bounce back can't be rule out. SCRIP NAME TRIGGER PRICE TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS DURATION Moreover it's RSI and other technical indicators also PETRONET 150-155 175 180 135 1 Month displaying some oversold indicators in near term. Hence LNG investors are advised to BUY this stock for a price target of Rs175-180 in near term. “Successful people save in prosperous times so they have a financial cushion in times of recession.” 4
  • 5. make more, for sure. FUNDAMENTAL PICKS FUNDAMENTAL PICK IDBI Bank Ltd Target Price: 151 Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI Bank), established in Expansion of Branches will help to improve the business growth… 1964 is wholly owned subsidiary of the RBI. IDBI offers personalized As on Q1FY12, IDBI Bank has network of 883 branches, 1459 ATMs and banking and financial solutions to its clients in the retail and corporate 598 centers across the countryside, out of total branches of IDBI, 38% banking arena through its large network of 883 Branches and 1459 branches are located in urban areas, 29% in metro cities, 23% in Semi ATMs, spread across length and breadth of India. IDBI also provides Urban areas and around remaining 10% in Rural areas. IDBI Bank has financing to Agri business, Microfinance and SME sector and operating corporate customer of more than 3000 and retail customer base of over with its three subsidies namely IDBI Capital Market Services, IDBI 5 million. Further, Bank has planned to increase its branch network up Home Finance, IDBI Intech, IDBI Gilts. It has also forayed into life to 1050 by the end of FY12 and apart from this, bank has also started the insurance business in joint collaboration with Fedral Bank and Fortis process to set up the branches in overseas countries, bank will also open Insurance International. Representative office in Shanghai during the same period. Improved CASA and NIM in Q1FY12 Financials: During the last five years (FY06-11) IDBI Bank has shown The merger of its housing subsidiary with itself has enhanced the Interest CAGR growth of 28% in Interest Earned Income and 24% in PAT, margin of IDBI in Q1FY12. The NIM of the bank has been improved by owing to efficient interest margins, the Net Interest Income (NII) of 46bps to 2.07% in Q1FY12. The deposits of the bank has grown by 12% while IDBI grew at around 69% during the same period. In FY11, the Interest growth in advances after adjusting the merger of housing subsidiary was Income of the Bank surged by 22% to Rs 18600.82 crore over FY10, NII around 12.5% during the same period. Despite the low liquidity and a tight of bank phenomenally jumped 92% to Rs 4328.89 crore and PAT also monetary policy, CASA of IDBI Bank has been improved to 17.29% in increased by 60% to Rs 1650.32 crore. In Q1FY12 the Interest Income of Q1FY12 from 13% in Q12FY11. However, the impact of high interest rates the bank grew by 31%, NII grew by 36% and PAT grew by 34%. The would be visible again in Q2FY12 too, but for FY12, IDBI Bank has guided NIM for the same period stood at 2.07% while PAT margin was 5.95%. the CASA target between the range of 17-18%. The Rate Hikes practice by RBI is likely to end… RBI has been hiking rates consecutively since last 17 months, but the Quarter & Year Ended Q1FY12 Q1FY11 %Chg FY11 trend is likely to be end in upcoming months because as per the RBI the Interest Income (Rs Cr) 5628.93 4282.15 31.5 18600.82 inflation is likely to ease in upcoming periods. In fact, the RBI has to NII (Rs Cr) 1152.44 844.35 36.5 6146.8 stop the rate hikes because it is also affecting the growth of the economy NIM% (Chg in bps) 2.07 1.61 46 1.76 for FY12, in first quarter of the financial year 2012 the GDP of India PAT (Rs Cr) 335.1 250.89 33.6 1650.32 grew by 7.7% against 9.3% in same quarter of the financial year 2011. PATM% (Chg in bps) 5.95 5.86 9 8.87 However, Inflation, which was 9.78% in Aug 2011 against 9.22% in July EPS (Rs) 3.4 3.46 1.7 16.8 2011, is still over the comfort level of RBI, the rate hikes by RBI and Dividend (%) 35 0 0 35 consecutively by local banks has already depressed the demand for Equity (Rs Cr) 984.61 724.89 35.8 984.57 loan, and now RBI is likely to hold the key rates for some periods or Data Matrix as on 30.09.2011 Key Financial Ratios (TTM) CMP (Rs) 102.75 P/E (x) TTM 5.83 may be reduce if inflation comes under control. 52- Week High (Rs) 202.25 P/BV (x) TTM 0.78 To Strengthen its Portfolio Invested in Commodity Exchange… 52- Week Low (Rs) 101.25 EV/TTM EBIDTA (x) 9.67 After laying the foundation of some of the prominent institutions in Latest Book Value (Rs) 132.09 EV/TTM Sales (x) 2.11 India like NSE, NSDL and SHCIL with other financial institutions, IDBI Face Value (Rs) 10 MCap/ TTM Sales( x) 0.51 Bank has now bought 10% stake in upcoming commodity bourse, Total No of Shares (Cr) 98.46 Credit/Deposits(%) 87.04 Universal Commodity Exchange (UCX). The main motive behind Avg. Monthly Vol. (Lakhs) 43.71 ROA (%) 0.68 acquiring equity in UCX is to push agriculture loans through this Market Cap (Rs Cr) 10,117 ROE (%) 15.8 venture and other advantage for IDBI is that being a sole bank among Beta (Sensex) 1.26 CASA (%) 20.88 promoters all the transactions of the exchange will be routed through Industry P/E 7.74 Dividend Yield (%) 3.41 IDBI Bank. However, this strategic partnership will also enable the Major Shareholders as on 30 June 2011 bank to strengthen its overall portfolio by including commodities, as Promoters (%) 64.13 FIIs (%) 3.35 this market is growing at a rapid pace across global markets. Non-Institutions (%) 15.93 DIIs (%) 15.6 “Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes little sense for those who know what they're doing.” 5
  • 6. MARKET TUTORIALS make more, for sure. OPTIONS STRATEGY – MARRIED PUT The fear of slowdown in the economy has prolonged the selling pressure in the markets across the world. Equities as well commodities both the investment instruments are constantly declining since past many days. However, do you know the put option in the option trading is the only value which rises with the fall in the price of stock or underline assets. Actually, in terms of their function and their price movements, puts are essentially the opposite of calls. When the price of the underlying equity begins to fall, the value of a put option on that stock will begin to rise. Often brokers will provide the ability to write covered calls and to use married puts when you open your options account. This option strategy will focus on the function of married puts in a portfolio or as part of a trading strategy, which will definitely help to minimize the loss & maximize the profits. What is Married Put? Married put is an option strategy where investors buy shares and at same time, he/she makes long positions in put of the same stock with the same quantity. This hedging strategy or option strategy is known as married put strategy. Potential gains or losses from a married put guaranteed selling price, and control over when he chooses to sell his strategy are created from the net effect of a long position in both the stock. put and its underlying stock. Married Puts is an option trading hedging strategy used in conjunction with stocks in order to produce Break Even Point with an exemplar a convex position with unlimited profit potential but limited The Break Even Point of Married Put option will be the sum total of maximum loss. initial cost price of stocks and cost of put options you paid. To use a married put option it would be required to form the combination of When & How to use Married Put Strategy two different purchases: one of a stock position and one of a put Married put options is typically used with the viewpoint of availing option. For a example, Let's say you choose to buy 100 shares of XYZ benefits of stock ownership (dividends, voting rights, etc.) along for Rs 20 per share and one XYZ September Rs 17.50 put for Rs 0.50 with the concern of uncertain, near-term, downside market risks. (100 shares x Rs 0.50 = Rs 50). With this combination, you have Purchasing puts with the purchase of shares of the underlying stock purchased a stock position with a cost of Rs 20/share but have also is a directional and bullish strategy. The primary motivation of this bought a form of insurance to protect yourself in case the stock investor is to protect his shares of the underlying security from a declines below Rs 17.50 before the expiration. You should remember decrease in market price therefore he will generally purchase a that for a put to be considered "married," the put and the stock must number of put contracts equivalent to the number of shares held. be bought on the same day, and you must instruct your broker that Married Puts is a simple option trading strategy where you simply the stock you have just purchased will be delivered if the put is buy to open one contract of at the money put options for every 100 exercised. shares that you buy. Conclusion: Married puts are one of the few ways that a new Advantages of Married Puts investor can protect the downside of an investment. This protection Married Put allows you to hold on to your stocks while insuring comes at a cost, and it is important to use this strategy only in certain against any losses. While the married put investor retains all benefits situations. If you think that a particular stock will go up but you are of stock ownership, he has "insured" his shares against an wary of a possible disaster, then the married-put strategy could be unacceptable decrease in value during the lifetime of the put, and has quite useful. Married puts can provide a great means of limiting your a limited, predefined, downside market risk. The premium paid for losses and helping you learn the usefulness of puts in a portfolio. As the put option is equivalent to the premium paid for an insurance in any options trade, always make sure that you consider the worst- policy. No matter how much the underlying stock decreases in value case scenario and be prepare for any kind of uncertain actions in the during the option's lifetime, the put contract has conveyed to him a markets. “Too many of us are spending money we haven't earned to buy things we don't need to impress people we don't like.” 6
  • 7. GOLD AND SILVER: KEEP ON BUYING AT EVERY DIP We should agree that Greece should have defaulted some time ago. Despite all the current efforts, Greece will default and that contagion will result in a global, banking crisis. Even if we're wrong, the mountains of money that will be created and poured into the debt hole will benefit the gold and silver prices. The Greek debt crisis is about stemming the spread of bank runs, the breakdown of the other PIIGS countries debt situation, and potentially the fragmentation of the Eurozone. We're on the brink. In the last week, we have seen global market confidence buckle in the face of slowing growth and what may already be a recession. This is not the time that poorer nations can use falling cash flow to repay mountains of debt. Talk of a 50% haircut on Greek debt should be lifted to as high as 60% to 70% for the Greeks to be able to manage its remaining debt in light of future, Greek cash flows. We may be tempted to see the debt crises as a short-term problem, but as the world's leaders agree, they're scaring the world and threatening global financial stability. So this isn't a case of the passing flu; it describes a congenital weakness that needs a structural solution. pullback from $1,200 to $1,000, we've seen gold rise to $1,910 and silver Nowhere can we see evidence of structural reforms likely to shore up to mid-$40 area, a tremendous gain since then. What's there to prevent confidence and repair the global financial system. The system is flawed a similar shape to the precious metal markets going forward? and most expect such crises to persist for the foreseeable future. Take a look at the function of gold and silver. Gold, in particular, is an Investors were shocked when gold dropped from $1,850 to below international asset and international cash. It can be used when all else $1,600 in an almost straight line. When they saw silver drop from $40 to fails. We saw that in the recent falls. Investors could liquidate holdings $28 they were even more shocked. After all, since 2005 gold has come quickly and take good profits to cover losses, loans, and margin calls in from $300+ and silver from $6+, so a $250 drop and a $12 drop seemed other markets. Once there's a moderate stabilizing of markets, that to be huge. Since then we have seen the silver price recover $4 in one lesson is remembered. Investment house strategists factor that into day and the gold price $60 in a day, with more recovery to come. In their policy decisions, realizing that in bad times, future profits lie in percentage terms, when compared to other markets, we see similar falls precious metals. there and in similar percentages, but not the same vigor in recovery. In the emerging world, the fall in precious metal prices is seen as The big picture confirms that falls, in most markets, were investors speculators getting out of the market and giving them an opportunity raising liquidity to lower leverage and protect against the falls, just as to buy at prices they feel will allow for certain rises. Their faith in gold we saw in 2008. This is something market observers cannot see ahead of and silver remains completely unshaken by the falls, which they see as time. They accompany major shifts in investor perceptions about the part of the ongoing suspicions about the developed world banking structure of global financial markets. system and markets speculation. To them the value of gold and silver Just as we saw in 2009 and onwards, the loss of confidence in global remains untouched and certain. Falls are seen as an opportunity to financial markets doesn't recover. In the gold market, since the buy cheaply into the precious metals. “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy, and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” 7
  • 8. AUXILIARY SECTION make more, for sure. ALERT FOR CLIENTS SERVICE FOR MANSUKH SECURITIES Introduction Mansukh Securities has brought Alert for Clients Service for its customers to remain informed and connected with the stock market while on move. Jaamoon Alc Features: 1. Conditional Alerts - This feature allows users to set alerts based on price trends. 2. Periodic Alerts - This feature allows users to set time-based alerts. 3. Market Open and Market Close Alerts - This feature allows users to set alerts based on Market Open and Market Close conditions. Steps To Register And Use Alc Platform a. Click http://www.moneysukh.com. b. Click c. Click on New user click here and register yourself by entering your mobile number, first name and last name. d. SMS having your username and system generated password will be sent to your registered mobile number. e. Using the login details you can now enter username and password and click Signin. f. Once you login into the application for the first time, you will be asked to change your password. It is recommended to change the password although you may ignore the warning by clicking Ignore. g. You can then click “Create alert” link to create your own alerts h. You can also view the alerts you have created using “View alerts” link