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Monthly Update From Mansukh                                  (For Private Circulation Only)                                                                                    Issue : November 2011
     Contents




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                Market        Global              Economy          Technical                Fundamental                             Market                          Commodity                             Auxiliary
                Review       Snapshot              Update            Picks                     Picks                               Tutorials                          Section                              Section




      FROM THE DESK OF RESEARCH

     D         iwali - the festival of lights brought cheers back to the       help in easing Greece's debt burden and strengthen banks and the
               Indian stock markets as encouraging developments from           European bailout fund. As per the tripartite agreement, private investors
               the global front helped markets participants in shrugging       would accept a loss of 50% on Greek bonds, which will cut Greece's debt
     sluggish domestic developments. A week after plunging by around           burden to 120% of GDP by 2020, banks will be forced to raise more capital
     one and half a percent, Indian equity indices demonstrated an             to protect them against losses resulting from any future defaults and
     action-packed performance in the holiday shortened week and               approved a crucial mechanism to boost the EFSF to an estimated 1 trillion
                                                         jumped to
                                                         highest levels                                Volume* & Volatility Index (Nifty - Oct 2011)
                                                         in around two            3000                         Cash (Rs bn)               F & O (Rs bn)                    Volatility %                       30
                                                         months. The
                                                                                  2000                                                                                                                        20
                                                         frontline




                                                                                                                                                           147.9




                                                                                                                                                                                   143.3


                                                                                                                                                                                                 107.1
                                                         i n d i c e s            1000                                                                                                                        10
                                                                                                88.1


                                                                                                           94.9


                                                                                                                       91.3


                                                                                                                                   89.1


                                                                                                                                               92.8




                                                                                                                                                                        21.9
                                                         skyrocketed
                                                                                        0                                                                                                                     0
                                                         by over six
                                                                                   *NSE 18-Oct 19-Oct 20-Oct 21-Oct 24-Oct 25-Oct 26-Oct 28-Oct 31-Oct
                                                         percent in the
                                                         passing week
                                                                                            Call Put Analysis (Nifty Nov 2011 series)                                                      Call     Put
                                                         and even went             60                                                                                                       OI in Lakhs




                                                                                                                                                                                   52
                                                                                                                                            49
                                                                                                                                     48




                                                                                                                                                                                            47
                                                       on to regain the            50
                                                                                                                                                                   40
                                                                                                                                                       36



                                                                                                                                                                          35
     important psychological 5,350 (Nifty) and 17,800 (Sensex) bastions.
                                                                                                                                                                         33
                                                                                   40
                                                                                                                              33
                                                                                                                  29




                                                                                                                                                               25




                                                                                                                                                                                                         25
                                                                                   30
     On the domestic front, the markets which had already factored in a
                                                                                                       19
                                                                                             19




                                                                                                                                                      16




                                                                                                                                                                                     14
                                                                                   20
                                                                                                                                          10




     25 basis point rate hike by Reserve Bank gave a muted reaction to

                                                                                                                                                                                              8
                                                                                   10
                                                                                                                        4

                                                                                                                                   4
                                                                                                                  3
                                                                                            2




                                                                                                                                                                                                          2
     the Reserve Bank of India's thirteenth interest rate since March
                                                                                                       1




                                                                                    0
     2010. Meanwhile sentiments also got a lift from reports that the                       4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000                             5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600
     government has given its nod for the long-awaited National
     Manufacturing Policy (NMP) which seeks to set up mega industrial          euro. Investors' morale got further propped up because of the US GDP
     zones and create 100 million jobs by 2022. Marketmen even went on         data which showed that the world's largest economy gathered additional
     to overlook the discouraging weekly inflation data which                  steam and expanded at a better than expected pace of 2.5% annual rate in
     accelerated to the highest levels in over six months despite the          the third quarter on stronger consumer spending and business
     central bank's ongoing liquidity tightening measures. But the             investment, easing concerns that the US was on the verge of a double-dip
     earnings season progressed on an uninspiring note as FMCG                 recession. For the upcoming month 5415-5430 could be the key resistance
     bellwether ITC announced in line earnings while the Union Bank of         zone. Any break out above this level with substantial volumes may lift the
     India reported weaker than expected earnings in the week.                 domestic sentiments and we might see 5570-5600 in short span of time. On
     On the global front, sentiments got bolstered after the European          the flip side 5150-5170 could be the key support zone. HAPPY
     policy makers approved a three-pronged agreement which will               TRADING….




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                                                                      make more, for sure.
     or sms 'mansukh' to 56767
GLOBAL SNAPSHOT                                                                             make more, for sure.




                                                   OCTOBER BRINGS SOME SMILE FOR US INVESTORS

    The DJIA, the principal index of US stock prices, has climbed over 1200 points in
    October, breaking a record set in April 1999 while the S&P 500 Index is on way to
    end October with its finest month since 1974. Concurrently as the euro
    discussion a series of economic reports together with this week's GDP figures
    spot in the direction of recovery in the US economy and away from signs of
    another dip. The latest US government figures demonstrate US gross domestic
    product (GDP) grew at an annualized 2.5% in the third quarter, a muscular
    improvement on the 1.3% annualized enlargement posted in the second quarter
    and a whole lot better than the miserable 0.4% reported in the first quarter.
    With the stage show in Europe, nowadays-inflowing quieter phases we
    believe US investors were once more spotlighting on their home market.
    The commerce department accounted on Friday that private
    consumption expenditures soared by 0.6% in September. That followed a
    0.2% rise in August. The most recent Euro news came as Klaus Regling,
    the head of euro-bailout fund the European financial stability facility
    (EFSF) met with Zhu Guangyao, a Chinese vice-finance minister, in                   advanced 0.1% in September after falling 0.1% the prior month, and the
    Beijing Friday. European leaders, led by France's Nicholas Sarkozy, are             nation's savings rate fell to nearly a four-year low. Separately,
    trying to convince the Chinese to invest more money in the EFSF.                    University of Michigan stated that its index of consumer sentiment
    GLOBAL MARKETS: Meanwhile Asia pacific stocks, widening an                          increased in the final review to 60.90 in October from 59.4 in September.
    advance that started on Thursday (27/10/2011), rushed to an eight                   The preliminary estimate for the month was 57.5.
    week high on Friday (28/12011), after European leaders set a plan to                Emotion got strengthen after the European policy makers approved a
    include the regions sovereign-debt and banking crisis that included a               three-pronged agreement which will help in easing Greece's debt
    50% write down on Greek government debt seized by private                           burden and strengthen banks and the European bailout fund. As per
    bondholders and a boost to the region's bailout fund. Asian shares                  the tripartite agreement, private investors would accept a loss of 50%
    rallied for a second day on Friday with many regional markets hitting               on Greek bonds, which will cut Greece's debt burden to 120% of GDP
    highs as investor confidence grew after the talk of world's largest                 by 2020, banks will be forced to raise more capital to protect them
    economy, US slipping into recession got a halt after the quarterly data             against losses resulting from any future defaults and approved a
    illustrated the largest jump for the US economy in more than a year,                crucial mechanism to boost the EFSF to an estimated 1 trillion euro.
    which also sparked a overnight gain at Wall Street. The US markets                  Morale of investors globally also was buttressed because of an
    closed mixed on Friday (28/10/2011), amid lot of volatility as data on              impressive US economic report which showed that the GDP gathered
    consumer confidence and spending failed to boost equities a day after               additional steam and expanded at a better than expected pace of 2.5%
    European leaders expanded the region's bailout plan. Equities pared                 annual rate in the third quarter, easing concerns that the US was on the
    losses in the final minutes and the S&P 500 closed in green completing              verge of a double-dip recession. The U.S. economy cultivated at its
    its fourth straight weekly advance, the longest since January. The                  fastest pace in a year in the third quarter as consumers and businesses
    Commerce Department reported that consumers' spending picked up                     stepped up spending, creating momentum that could carry into the
    last month, increasing 0.6% after a 0.2% growth in August. Incomes                  final three months of the year.



        Global & U.S. Manufacturing activities                                           Euro Zone default dominoes




        Source: reutersindia.com

         “Many people take no care of their money till they come nearly to the end of it, and others do just the same with their time”

2
make more, for sure.                                                         ECONOMY UPDATE



                             FDI SHOWS HANDSOME RECOVERY HOWEVER INFLATION STILLS A DEEP WORRY

                                                                                         billion during the week ended October 21, 2011. The increase in
                                                                                         valuation of Foreign Currency Assets pulled the forex kitty higher
                                                                                         during the reporting week. Valuation of foreign currency assets
                                                                                         increased $861 million in the week to $282.514 billion. This figure
                                                                                         excludes investment worth Rs 1,903 crore/ $380 million invested in
                                                                                         foreign currency denominated bonds issued by IIFC (UK). Further,
                                                                                         foreign currency assets expressed in US dollar terms include the effect
                                                                                         of appreciation /depreciation of non-US currencies (such as euro,
                                                                                         sterling, yen) held in reserves. The value of gold in the reserves
                                                                                         remained unchanged to $28.667 billion during the week. This valuation
                                                                                         includes Rs 31,463 crore ($6,699 million) reflecting the purchase of 200
                                                                                         metric tonne of gold from IMF on November 3, 2009. The country's
                                                                                         reserve position in the IMF also witnessed a drop of $1 million during
                                                                                         the week ended October 21, 2011 to $2.635 billion. Reserve position in
                                                                                         the IMF, i.e., Reserve Tranche Position (RTP) which was shown as a
                                                                                         memo item from May 23, 2003 to March 26, 2004 has been included in
                                                                                         the reserves from the week ended April 2, 2004 in keeping with the
                                                                                         international best practice.
Despite the slowdown in global economy, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in
India jumped by 95% in the first five months of the 2011-12. According to the            On the other hand India's food inflation inched up to 11.43%, breaching
ministry of commerce and industry's data, FDI in April-August 2011 stood at              the psychological barrier for the week ended October 15 from 10.60% in
$17.37 billion as compared to $8.887 billion during April-August 2010. In the            the previous week. The weekly food inflation measured by the
first seven months of the current calendar year, foreign investments surged by           Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is at 6-month high, sustaining the
50% to $20.76 billion compare $13.85 in the same period of last year. On month-          pressure on overall inflation and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The
on-month basis, FDI in August stood at $2.83 billion compare to $1.099 billion in        surge was mainly on the back of relentless rise in prices of vegetables,
July. July's FDI inflow was the lowest figure in 2011-12, which indicate the             fruits, milk and protein-rich items. According to the data released by
slowdown in the global economy has affected the pace of capital inflow. However,         the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the index for 'Food Articles'
experts have the view that the government should further streamline polices and          group rose by 0.2% to 200.8 (Provisional) from 200.3 (Provisional) for
make the environment more conducive to the overseas investments. In order to             the previous week due to higher prices of condiments and spices (3%),
attract foreign investment, the government had relaxed FDI norms. The                    gram, fish-marine and maize(2% each) and pork (1%).
government had also relaxed norms for FDI in construction of old age homes and           Meanwhile the ministry of finance indicated that it is likely to approve
educational institutes and without lock in period rules. The major sectors               capital infusion into public sector banks, including State Bank of India
attracting overseas investment in the country are service (financial and non             by mid-November. In the current financial year, the capital
financial services), Telecommunication, housing and real estate and power
                                                                                         requirement of PSU banks has been estimated between Rs 10,000-
sector. The major investing countries are Mauritius, Singapore, the US, the UK,
                                                                                         20,000 crore.     The committee is examining proposals for capital
the Netherlands, Japan, Germany and the UAE.
                                                                                         requirement during the current fiscal as well as for long-term (2021). By
                                                                                         that time banks will have to meet Basel II norms as well. As India is set
According to the latest press release from the Reserve Bank of India                     to implement Basel III norms on capital adequacy, in coming ten years,
(RBI), the country's forex reserves increased by $858 million to $318.358                PSU banks would need around Rs 3.5 lakh crore.

   India raised Repo Rate by 25bps to 8.5%                                                FDI flows in India




       Source: reutersindia.com


“If you can, you will quickly find that the greatest rate of return you will earn is on your own personal spending. Being a smart shopper is the first step to getting rich.”



                                                                                                                                                                                3
TECHNICAL PICKS                                                                                   make more, for sure.




                                                                         TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

    Pantaloon Retail (India) is India's leading retail chain and                 PANTALOON RETAIL (INDIA) LTD
    part of Indian conglomerate Future Group. It operates retail
    space spread over 11 million square feet. It has a network of
    more than 1000 stores across 63 cities in India and has
    employee strength of 30,000 people. Pantaloon Retail (India)
    is planning to mop up Rs 1,500 crore by issuing equity-linked
    securities amounting to stake dilution of about 15 percent. In
    this regard, the company has got its board approval. The
    securities could be either convertible instrument, convertible
    into shares, debt instruments with attached warrants giving
    right to the holder of such warrants to subscribe for
    Equity/Class B Shares, issue of Equity/Class B shares.
    Further, the company's board directed that, it should ensure
    that overall dilution of equity through aforesaid is within
    15% and the debt equity ratio is not to exceed 1.33. The
    company's promoters had 44.92% stake in the firm as on
    June, 2011.
    On technical perspective, after taking significant correction
    from the highs of Rs 310, scrip has shown crucial resistance
    below Rs 170 level. At current juncture we believe scrip has
    the potential to recover from the current level as its technical
    indicators i.e. RSI and MACD also suggest some technical                      SCRIP NAME       TRIGGER PRICE     TARGET 1    TARGET 2     STOP LOSS         DURATION

    pull back in near term. Hence we recommended 'Buy' in this
                                                                                  PANTALOON            175-180         160         210           225              1 Month
    stock.




    Federal Bank is the fourth-largest private lender in the country
    and the largest in Kerala, with a balance sheet of Rs 81,000 crore
                                                                                  FEDERAL BANK LTD
    as of September 30. The company's net profit for the quarter rose
    36.15% at Rs 191.16 crore as compared to Rs 140.40 crore for the
    quarter ended September 30, 2010. Its net sales has increased by
    32.29% to Rs 1484.79 crore for the quarter under review from Rs
    1122.38 crore for the similar quarter of the previous year.
    Federal Bank, a Kerala-based private sector bank, has opened 66
    new branches on October 18, 2011. Of the new branches
    inaugurated 12 are in Gujarat, 10 in Karnataka, 9 in Tamil Nadu
    and 6 in Maharashtra. The way forward for Federal Bank is to
    scale up on its strength in new territories. This move is in line
    with its vision of becoming the most trusted partner for the SME,
    retail and NRI customer segments. Recently, in a bid to expand
    the services and facilitate its customer to bank under single roof
    the bank is eyeing to foray into equity broking services business.
    The Kerala-based bank is also keen on starting investment
    banking services but is yet to formally move to the regulators
    and exchanges in this regard.
    On technical viewpoint, stock has shown double bottom
    formation around Rs 340 and currently in upward bias. In close
    proximity scrip has given crucial break out above its 200 DMA                  SCRIP NAME       TRIGGER PRICE     TARGET 1    TARGET 2     STOP LOSS         DURATION
    (Rs 400) which itself a bullish indicator in near term. Moreover
    it's RSI and other technical indicators also displaying some                  FEDERAL BK            390-400          370         440           460             1 Month
    buying opportunities in near term. Hence investors are advised
    to BUY this stock for a price target of Rs 440-460 in near term.

    “If money is your hope for independence you will never have it. The only real security that a man will have in this world is a reserve of knowledge, experience, and ability.”



4
make more, for sure.                                                     FUNDAMENTAL PICKS



                                                            FUNDAMENTAL PICK
HCL Technologies Ltd                                                                                                        Target Price: 510
HCL Technologies, a leading global IT services company offers                New service factory delivery model will help to pact more deals…
integrated portfolio of services including software-led IT solutions,        HCL Tech recently entered into a strategic 5-year deal with Deutsche

remote infrastructure management, engineering and R&D services and           Bank's Capital Markets arm. The service factory delivery model

BPO. It provides services to industry sectors including financial            implemented by HCL will enhance productivity driven by transparent

services, manufacturing, aerospace & defense, telecom, retail & CPG,         Service Level Agreements and performance metrics. This deal is one of

life sciences & healthcare, media & entertainment, travel,                   the significant milestones in the strategic roadmap that has been charted

transportation & logistics, automotive, government, energies &               by the company and it is delighted to continue along this journey with

utilities. With offices in 26 countries and partnerships with several        Deutsche Bank. Moreover, the leading global banks are also looking for

leading firms, it is a leader in providing IT services to its clients        ways to improve their application product management, in order to

restructuring the core of their businesses.                                  increase efficiency and enhance productivity, which would give HCL an
                                                                             opportunity to grab such kind of deals in near term.
Financials: The Top Line of HCL Tech grew at CAGR of 17.5% over the
last five years (FY06-11), bottom Line and Operating Profit of the           To enhance the productivity joined hands with other IT majors…
                                                                             HCL Tech has also signed MOU with Etisalat to offer collaborative ICT
company for the same period grew at CAGR of 13.5% and 16%
                                                                             services to customers. As per the agreement, they both together will work
respectively. In FY11, the Net Sales of HCL Tech jumped 34% to Rs
                                                                             together to explore the possibility of collaboration for offering joint ICT
6794.48 crore over FY10, Operating Profit of company surged 12% to Rs
                                                                             solutions to business customers in the areas of Mobility, Cloud
1516.37 crore and PAT also increased by 13.4% to Rs 1198.28 crore. In
                                                                             Computing and advanced ICT services. To strengthen its Software
Q1FY12 (Sep 2011), the Net Sales of the company grew by 32%,
                                                                             Assessment Services, HCL has also joined hands with CAST, a world
Operating Profit grew by 71% and PAT phenomenally jumped 104%. The
                                                                             leader in software analysis and measurement. CAST AIP tool that allows
OPM for the same period stood around 24% while PAT margin was 20%.
                                                                             analysis will augment assessment service to HCL's worldwide clients,
INVESTMENT GROUNDS
                                                                             and measurement of essential structural quality attributes.
Indian IT exporters generate more than 90% of their revenue from the
developed economy and any unfavorable economic conditions in these
                                                                             Quarter & Year Ended       Sep-11 Sep-10 %Chg JUN-FY11
developed countries affects the growth of IT sector in India. As we can      Net Sales (Rs Cr)         1979.22 1498.32      32.1     6794.48
see that right now due to current economic uncertainty the IT sector has     Operating Profit (Rs Cr)   475.54 278.32       70.9     1516.37
been impacted, though dollar appreciated against rupee and played a          OPM% (Chg in bps)           24.03     18.58     545       22.32
vital role to offset several revenue losses for the past quarter. However,   PAT (Rs Cr)                397.55 194.88 104.0          1198.28
in forth coming period the situation is likely to improve as many global     PATM% (Chg in bps)          20.09     13.01     708       17.64
software providers expressed that uncertainty has failed to affect           EPS (Rs)                     5.76      3.46     2.9        17.4
                                                                             Dividend (%)                    0         0      0          375
software and services spending. On the other hand, the individual
                                                                             Equity (Rs Cr)             137.96       136     1.4      137.74
efficiency of IT companies like increasing outsourcing contracts and
                                                                             Data Matrix as on 01.11.2011      Key Financial Ratios (TTM)
introducing new business models can make them competent for this
                                                                             CMP (Rs)                   430.75 P/E (x) TTM             21.22
environment.                                                                 52- Week High (Rs)          528.4 P/BV (x) TTM             4.91
Timely contract Execution Track Record is an advantage…                      52- Week Low (Rs)           360.1 EV/TTM EBIDTA (x)       15.28
With the new contracts worth Rs US$2bn during past six months, HCL           Latest Book Value (Rs)      87.65 EV/TTM Sales (x)         4.08
Tech is focusing to obtain more large deals. HCL Tech featured among         Face Value (Rs)                 2 MCap/ TTM Sales( x)      4.09
TPI's Global 6 IT Services providers by TCVs awarded, across all the         Total No of Shares (Cr)     68.98 Total Debt/Equity (x)    0.18
three regions of the world has won multiple transformational deals and       Avg. Monthly Vol. (Lakhs)   10.04 ROA (%)                 18.12
                                                                             Market Cap (Rs Cr)         29,728 ROE (%)                 23.08
has a record of accomplishment to deliver them with timely execution
                                                                             Beta (Sensex)                1.16 ROCE (%)                21.04
with excellent customer supports. It has collaborated with Apacheta to
                                                                             Industry P/E                19.55 Dividend Yield (%)       1.74
provide global delivery of mobile sales, delivery and merchandising
                                                                                           Major Shareholders as on 30 Sep 2011
solutions to consumer goods industry to enhance operational                  Promoters (%)               64.27 FIIs (%)                20.51
efficiencies & provide improved time-to-market benefits.                     Non-Institutions (%)         8.51 DIIs (%)                 6.71


  “Education is the foundation of success. Just as scholastic skills are vitally important, so are financial skills and communication skills.”


                                                                                                                                                           5
MARKET TUTORIALS                                                                         make more, for sure.




                                                    OPTIONS STRATEGY – BEAR PUT SPREAD

    Remember that, in our first option strategy tutorial we have discussed an
    option strategy called Bull Call Spread, that strategy is known as a bullish
    option strategy, employed when the options trader expects the underlying
    stock price to move upwards. Now in this edition we will discuss Bear Put
    Spread, which is the reverse of a Bull Call Spread and works the same way in
    the opposite direction. “Bear Put Spread involves simultaneously purchase
    of a put option on a particular underlying stock, and writing a put option on
    the same underlying stock with the same expiration month, but with a lower
    strike price”. This kind of spread generally categorized as “Vertical Spread”
    because you have to pay some amount of money to hold this position, which is
    also known as a Debit Spread.


    When & How to use Bear Put Spread?
    Bear Put Spread is a type of options strategy used when an option
    trader expects a decline in the price of the underlying asset. Bear Put
                                                                                    deducting the net premium paid from the Strike price of the
    Spread is achieved by purchasing put options at a specific strike price
                                                                                    purchased put. To understand the bear put spread let us take an
    while also selling the same number of puts at a lower strike price. In
                                                                                    example, suppose stock of a company is trading at Rs 38 in Oct. An
    fact, this option strategy is also a method to buy put options at a
                                                                                    options trader bearish on this stock decides to enter a bear put spread
    discount, because you sell to open an Out of the Money (OTM) put
                                                                                    position by buying a Oct 40 put for Rs 300 and sell a Oct 35 put for Rs
    option in this option strategy, which reduces investment on our In
                                                                                    100 at the same time, resulting in a net debit of Rs 200 for entering this
    The Money (ITM) or At The Money (ATM) Put options. This option
                                                                                    position. The price of stock subsequently drops to Rs 34 at expiration.
    strategy would be an ideal strategy for the beginners who want to
                                                                                    Both puts expire in-the-money with the Oct 40 put bought having Rs
    profit from a down market as it reduces upfront payment and
                                                                                    600 in intrinsic value and the Oct 35 put sold having Rs 100 in intrinsic
    therefore the risk of the position too.
                                                                                    value. The spread would then have a net value of Rs 5 (the difference
                                                                                    in strike price). Deducting the debit taken when he placed the trade,
    Advantages of Bear Put Spread
                                                                                    his net profit is Rs 300. This is also his maximum possible profit. If the
    Bear Put Spread can be considered a double hedging strategy as the              stock had rallied to Rs 420 instead, both options expire worthless,
    price paid for the put with the higher strike price is partially                and the options trader loses the entire debit of Rs 200 taken to enter
    compensate by the premium received from writing the put with a                  the trade. This is also the maximum possible loss.
    lower strike price. Thus, the investor's investment in the long put and
    the risk of losing the entire premium paid for it is reduced or hedged.
                                                                                    Conclusion: The bear put spread is a debit spread as the difference
    The position is hedged as loss is limited if the underlying asset rises
                                                                                    between the sale and purchase of the two options results in a net debit.
    instead of fall while on the other hand if the underlying asset fails to
                                                                                    This spread is sometimes more broadly categorized as a "vertical spread":
    fall beyond the strike price of the out of the money short call option,
                                                                                    a family of spreads involving options of the same stock, same expiration
    the profit yield will be greater than just buying put options. It is also a
                                                                                    month, but different strike prices. Either they can be created with all calls
    way of buying put options at a discount by selling the out of the
                                                                                    or all puts, and is bullish or bearish. The bear put spread, as any spread,
    money put option at a strike price beyond that which the underlying
                                                                                    can be executed as a "package" in one single transaction, not as separate
    asset is expected to fall.
                                                                                    buy and sell transactions. For this bearish vertical spread, a bid and offer
                                                                                    for the whole package can be requested through your brokerage firm
    The Break Even Point with an exemplar                                           from an exchange where the options are listed and traded. Hope this
    The Break-even point for the Bear Put Spread can be achieved by                 option strategy helps to make some reasonable profits in falling markets.


                “Customers want brands that are narrow in scope and distinguishable by a single word, the shorter the better.”


6
COMMODITY UPDATES: PROFIT BOOKING SCENARIO MORE ON THE CARDS
CRUDE OIL: Crude oil prices recoiled on last trading of the week as
investors grew worried that the recent sharp upmove in prices will not
be sustained amid uncertainties over the European accord. Fuel prices
also weighed down by the marginal appreciation in American
greenback which made the dollar denominated commodity costlier for
holders' of other currencies. Meanwhile, the crude oil prices also got
undermined by reports that Japanese manufacturing activity declined
in September for the first time since the devastating March earthquake,
indicating that the slowing global growth is hurting nation's economy.
Benchmark crude for December delivery fell by $0.64, or 0.68% to settle
at $93.32 a barrel on, after trading as high as $93.93 and as low as $92.01
on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for
December delivery plummeted $2.17 or 1.94% to $109.91 a barrel, on
the ICE Futures exchange.
GOLD: Gold prices halted the five straight session northbound
journey on Friday (28/10/2011) and settled marginally below the
neutral line, concluding the week with 6.8% gains. Market participants
took a breather on last trading day of the week after the recent non-stop
rally, lacking any significant cues to take the bullion prices higher. The
                                                                              first trading session of a new week as marketmen chose to take profits
yellow metal prices see-sawed between gains and losses through the
                                                                              off the table after the spike up in American dollar and growing doubts
session as investors turned cautious after they shifted their attention on
                                                                              over Europe's bailout plan undermined sentiments. However, the red
the challenges in implementing new measures to resolve the region's
                                                                              metal prices also got weighed down after a data showed that the
debt trouble. Gold futures for December delivery eased $0.50 or 0.03%
                                                                              Chicago PMI fell more-than-expected to a seasonally adjusted 58.4 last
to settle at $1,747.20 an ounce, after trading as high as $1,754 and as low
                                                                              month from 60.4 in the preceding month. Copper futures for December
as $1,733 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange,
                                                                              delivery slumped 7.40 cents or 2% to settle at $3.6320 per lb after
whereas the spot gold prices shed $2.3 to $1,743.40 an ounce.
                                                                              trading as high as $3.7425 and as low as $3.4890 on the Comex metals
COPPER: Copper prices extended the gaining streak for yet another             division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Copper for three-
session on Friday (28/102011) and even climbed to the highest levels in       month delivery on the London Metal Exchange plummeted $175 to end
around five weeks as marketmen continued to pile positions in the             at $8,000 a tonne.
industrial metal amid expectations that the European deal would
                                                                              Meanwhile investors relentlessly accumulated positions in the growth
prevent the global economy from dipping into recession and improve
                                                                              sensitive metal after Europe's hard-won debt deal to save the Euro-
the metal's demand prospects. However, the upside in the red metal
                                                                              zone and the global economy from recession. Investors' morale also got
prices was capped as reports that Japanese manufacturing activity
                                                                              boosted because of an impressive US economic report which showed
declined in September for the first time since the devastating March
                                                                              that the GDP gathered additional steam and expanded at a better than
earthquake, exerted some pressure. Copper futures for December
                                                                              expected pace of 2.5% annual rate in the third quarter, easing concerns
delivery increased 1.40 cents or 0.4% to settle at $3.706 per lb on the
                                                                              that the US was on the verge of a double-dip recession. The red metal
Comex metals division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Copper
                                                                              prices also got underpinned by the depreciation in greenback which
for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange added $30 to
                                                                              made the dollar priced metal look more attractive to global investors.
end at $8,175 a tonne. However Copper prices got pummeled on the
                                           “Success of today resulted from the failure of yesterday.”




                                                                                                                                                        7
AUXILIARY SECTION                                                  make more, for sure.




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Make more november 2011

  • 1. Monthly Update From Mansukh (For Private Circulation Only) Issue : November 2011 Contents 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Market Global Economy Technical Fundamental Market Commodity Auxiliary Review Snapshot Update Picks Picks Tutorials Section Section FROM THE DESK OF RESEARCH D iwali - the festival of lights brought cheers back to the help in easing Greece's debt burden and strengthen banks and the Indian stock markets as encouraging developments from European bailout fund. As per the tripartite agreement, private investors the global front helped markets participants in shrugging would accept a loss of 50% on Greek bonds, which will cut Greece's debt sluggish domestic developments. A week after plunging by around burden to 120% of GDP by 2020, banks will be forced to raise more capital one and half a percent, Indian equity indices demonstrated an to protect them against losses resulting from any future defaults and action-packed performance in the holiday shortened week and approved a crucial mechanism to boost the EFSF to an estimated 1 trillion jumped to highest levels Volume* & Volatility Index (Nifty - Oct 2011) in around two 3000 Cash (Rs bn) F & O (Rs bn) Volatility % 30 months. The 2000 20 frontline 147.9 143.3 107.1 i n d i c e s 1000 10 88.1 94.9 91.3 89.1 92.8 21.9 skyrocketed 0 0 by over six *NSE 18-Oct 19-Oct 20-Oct 21-Oct 24-Oct 25-Oct 26-Oct 28-Oct 31-Oct percent in the passing week Call Put Analysis (Nifty Nov 2011 series) Call Put and even went 60 OI in Lakhs 52 49 48 47 on to regain the 50 40 36 35 important psychological 5,350 (Nifty) and 17,800 (Sensex) bastions. 33 40 33 29 25 25 30 On the domestic front, the markets which had already factored in a 19 19 16 14 20 10 25 basis point rate hike by Reserve Bank gave a muted reaction to 8 10 4 4 3 2 2 the Reserve Bank of India's thirteenth interest rate since March 1 0 2010. Meanwhile sentiments also got a lift from reports that the 4500 4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 government has given its nod for the long-awaited National Manufacturing Policy (NMP) which seeks to set up mega industrial euro. Investors' morale got further propped up because of the US GDP zones and create 100 million jobs by 2022. Marketmen even went on data which showed that the world's largest economy gathered additional to overlook the discouraging weekly inflation data which steam and expanded at a better than expected pace of 2.5% annual rate in accelerated to the highest levels in over six months despite the the third quarter on stronger consumer spending and business central bank's ongoing liquidity tightening measures. But the investment, easing concerns that the US was on the verge of a double-dip earnings season progressed on an uninspiring note as FMCG recession. For the upcoming month 5415-5430 could be the key resistance bellwether ITC announced in line earnings while the Union Bank of zone. Any break out above this level with substantial volumes may lift the India reported weaker than expected earnings in the week. domestic sentiments and we might see 5570-5600 in short span of time. On On the global front, sentiments got bolstered after the European the flip side 5150-5170 could be the key support zone. HAPPY policy makers approved a three-pronged agreement which will TRADING…. Visit www.moneysukh.com make more, for sure. or sms 'mansukh' to 56767
  • 2. GLOBAL SNAPSHOT make more, for sure. OCTOBER BRINGS SOME SMILE FOR US INVESTORS The DJIA, the principal index of US stock prices, has climbed over 1200 points in October, breaking a record set in April 1999 while the S&P 500 Index is on way to end October with its finest month since 1974. Concurrently as the euro discussion a series of economic reports together with this week's GDP figures spot in the direction of recovery in the US economy and away from signs of another dip. The latest US government figures demonstrate US gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized 2.5% in the third quarter, a muscular improvement on the 1.3% annualized enlargement posted in the second quarter and a whole lot better than the miserable 0.4% reported in the first quarter. With the stage show in Europe, nowadays-inflowing quieter phases we believe US investors were once more spotlighting on their home market. The commerce department accounted on Friday that private consumption expenditures soared by 0.6% in September. That followed a 0.2% rise in August. The most recent Euro news came as Klaus Regling, the head of euro-bailout fund the European financial stability facility (EFSF) met with Zhu Guangyao, a Chinese vice-finance minister, in advanced 0.1% in September after falling 0.1% the prior month, and the Beijing Friday. European leaders, led by France's Nicholas Sarkozy, are nation's savings rate fell to nearly a four-year low. Separately, trying to convince the Chinese to invest more money in the EFSF. University of Michigan stated that its index of consumer sentiment GLOBAL MARKETS: Meanwhile Asia pacific stocks, widening an increased in the final review to 60.90 in October from 59.4 in September. advance that started on Thursday (27/10/2011), rushed to an eight The preliminary estimate for the month was 57.5. week high on Friday (28/12011), after European leaders set a plan to Emotion got strengthen after the European policy makers approved a include the regions sovereign-debt and banking crisis that included a three-pronged agreement which will help in easing Greece's debt 50% write down on Greek government debt seized by private burden and strengthen banks and the European bailout fund. As per bondholders and a boost to the region's bailout fund. Asian shares the tripartite agreement, private investors would accept a loss of 50% rallied for a second day on Friday with many regional markets hitting on Greek bonds, which will cut Greece's debt burden to 120% of GDP highs as investor confidence grew after the talk of world's largest by 2020, banks will be forced to raise more capital to protect them economy, US slipping into recession got a halt after the quarterly data against losses resulting from any future defaults and approved a illustrated the largest jump for the US economy in more than a year, crucial mechanism to boost the EFSF to an estimated 1 trillion euro. which also sparked a overnight gain at Wall Street. The US markets Morale of investors globally also was buttressed because of an closed mixed on Friday (28/10/2011), amid lot of volatility as data on impressive US economic report which showed that the GDP gathered consumer confidence and spending failed to boost equities a day after additional steam and expanded at a better than expected pace of 2.5% European leaders expanded the region's bailout plan. Equities pared annual rate in the third quarter, easing concerns that the US was on the losses in the final minutes and the S&P 500 closed in green completing verge of a double-dip recession. The U.S. economy cultivated at its its fourth straight weekly advance, the longest since January. The fastest pace in a year in the third quarter as consumers and businesses Commerce Department reported that consumers' spending picked up stepped up spending, creating momentum that could carry into the last month, increasing 0.6% after a 0.2% growth in August. Incomes final three months of the year. Global & U.S. Manufacturing activities Euro Zone default dominoes Source: reutersindia.com “Many people take no care of their money till they come nearly to the end of it, and others do just the same with their time” 2
  • 3. make more, for sure. ECONOMY UPDATE FDI SHOWS HANDSOME RECOVERY HOWEVER INFLATION STILLS A DEEP WORRY billion during the week ended October 21, 2011. The increase in valuation of Foreign Currency Assets pulled the forex kitty higher during the reporting week. Valuation of foreign currency assets increased $861 million in the week to $282.514 billion. This figure excludes investment worth Rs 1,903 crore/ $380 million invested in foreign currency denominated bonds issued by IIFC (UK). Further, foreign currency assets expressed in US dollar terms include the effect of appreciation /depreciation of non-US currencies (such as euro, sterling, yen) held in reserves. The value of gold in the reserves remained unchanged to $28.667 billion during the week. This valuation includes Rs 31,463 crore ($6,699 million) reflecting the purchase of 200 metric tonne of gold from IMF on November 3, 2009. The country's reserve position in the IMF also witnessed a drop of $1 million during the week ended October 21, 2011 to $2.635 billion. Reserve position in the IMF, i.e., Reserve Tranche Position (RTP) which was shown as a memo item from May 23, 2003 to March 26, 2004 has been included in the reserves from the week ended April 2, 2004 in keeping with the international best practice. Despite the slowdown in global economy, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India jumped by 95% in the first five months of the 2011-12. According to the On the other hand India's food inflation inched up to 11.43%, breaching ministry of commerce and industry's data, FDI in April-August 2011 stood at the psychological barrier for the week ended October 15 from 10.60% in $17.37 billion as compared to $8.887 billion during April-August 2010. In the the previous week. The weekly food inflation measured by the first seven months of the current calendar year, foreign investments surged by Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is at 6-month high, sustaining the 50% to $20.76 billion compare $13.85 in the same period of last year. On month- pressure on overall inflation and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The on-month basis, FDI in August stood at $2.83 billion compare to $1.099 billion in surge was mainly on the back of relentless rise in prices of vegetables, July. July's FDI inflow was the lowest figure in 2011-12, which indicate the fruits, milk and protein-rich items. According to the data released by slowdown in the global economy has affected the pace of capital inflow. However, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the index for 'Food Articles' experts have the view that the government should further streamline polices and group rose by 0.2% to 200.8 (Provisional) from 200.3 (Provisional) for make the environment more conducive to the overseas investments. In order to the previous week due to higher prices of condiments and spices (3%), attract foreign investment, the government had relaxed FDI norms. The gram, fish-marine and maize(2% each) and pork (1%). government had also relaxed norms for FDI in construction of old age homes and Meanwhile the ministry of finance indicated that it is likely to approve educational institutes and without lock in period rules. The major sectors capital infusion into public sector banks, including State Bank of India attracting overseas investment in the country are service (financial and non by mid-November. In the current financial year, the capital financial services), Telecommunication, housing and real estate and power requirement of PSU banks has been estimated between Rs 10,000- sector. The major investing countries are Mauritius, Singapore, the US, the UK, 20,000 crore. The committee is examining proposals for capital the Netherlands, Japan, Germany and the UAE. requirement during the current fiscal as well as for long-term (2021). By that time banks will have to meet Basel II norms as well. As India is set According to the latest press release from the Reserve Bank of India to implement Basel III norms on capital adequacy, in coming ten years, (RBI), the country's forex reserves increased by $858 million to $318.358 PSU banks would need around Rs 3.5 lakh crore. India raised Repo Rate by 25bps to 8.5% FDI flows in India Source: reutersindia.com “If you can, you will quickly find that the greatest rate of return you will earn is on your own personal spending. Being a smart shopper is the first step to getting rich.” 3
  • 4. TECHNICAL PICKS make more, for sure. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Pantaloon Retail (India) is India's leading retail chain and PANTALOON RETAIL (INDIA) LTD part of Indian conglomerate Future Group. It operates retail space spread over 11 million square feet. It has a network of more than 1000 stores across 63 cities in India and has employee strength of 30,000 people. Pantaloon Retail (India) is planning to mop up Rs 1,500 crore by issuing equity-linked securities amounting to stake dilution of about 15 percent. In this regard, the company has got its board approval. The securities could be either convertible instrument, convertible into shares, debt instruments with attached warrants giving right to the holder of such warrants to subscribe for Equity/Class B Shares, issue of Equity/Class B shares. Further, the company's board directed that, it should ensure that overall dilution of equity through aforesaid is within 15% and the debt equity ratio is not to exceed 1.33. The company's promoters had 44.92% stake in the firm as on June, 2011. On technical perspective, after taking significant correction from the highs of Rs 310, scrip has shown crucial resistance below Rs 170 level. At current juncture we believe scrip has the potential to recover from the current level as its technical indicators i.e. RSI and MACD also suggest some technical SCRIP NAME TRIGGER PRICE TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS DURATION pull back in near term. Hence we recommended 'Buy' in this PANTALOON 175-180 160 210 225 1 Month stock. Federal Bank is the fourth-largest private lender in the country and the largest in Kerala, with a balance sheet of Rs 81,000 crore FEDERAL BANK LTD as of September 30. The company's net profit for the quarter rose 36.15% at Rs 191.16 crore as compared to Rs 140.40 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2010. Its net sales has increased by 32.29% to Rs 1484.79 crore for the quarter under review from Rs 1122.38 crore for the similar quarter of the previous year. Federal Bank, a Kerala-based private sector bank, has opened 66 new branches on October 18, 2011. Of the new branches inaugurated 12 are in Gujarat, 10 in Karnataka, 9 in Tamil Nadu and 6 in Maharashtra. The way forward for Federal Bank is to scale up on its strength in new territories. This move is in line with its vision of becoming the most trusted partner for the SME, retail and NRI customer segments. Recently, in a bid to expand the services and facilitate its customer to bank under single roof the bank is eyeing to foray into equity broking services business. The Kerala-based bank is also keen on starting investment banking services but is yet to formally move to the regulators and exchanges in this regard. On technical viewpoint, stock has shown double bottom formation around Rs 340 and currently in upward bias. In close proximity scrip has given crucial break out above its 200 DMA SCRIP NAME TRIGGER PRICE TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS DURATION (Rs 400) which itself a bullish indicator in near term. Moreover it's RSI and other technical indicators also displaying some FEDERAL BK 390-400 370 440 460 1 Month buying opportunities in near term. Hence investors are advised to BUY this stock for a price target of Rs 440-460 in near term. “If money is your hope for independence you will never have it. The only real security that a man will have in this world is a reserve of knowledge, experience, and ability.” 4
  • 5. make more, for sure. FUNDAMENTAL PICKS FUNDAMENTAL PICK HCL Technologies Ltd Target Price: 510 HCL Technologies, a leading global IT services company offers New service factory delivery model will help to pact more deals… integrated portfolio of services including software-led IT solutions, HCL Tech recently entered into a strategic 5-year deal with Deutsche remote infrastructure management, engineering and R&D services and Bank's Capital Markets arm. The service factory delivery model BPO. It provides services to industry sectors including financial implemented by HCL will enhance productivity driven by transparent services, manufacturing, aerospace & defense, telecom, retail & CPG, Service Level Agreements and performance metrics. This deal is one of life sciences & healthcare, media & entertainment, travel, the significant milestones in the strategic roadmap that has been charted transportation & logistics, automotive, government, energies & by the company and it is delighted to continue along this journey with utilities. With offices in 26 countries and partnerships with several Deutsche Bank. Moreover, the leading global banks are also looking for leading firms, it is a leader in providing IT services to its clients ways to improve their application product management, in order to restructuring the core of their businesses. increase efficiency and enhance productivity, which would give HCL an opportunity to grab such kind of deals in near term. Financials: The Top Line of HCL Tech grew at CAGR of 17.5% over the last five years (FY06-11), bottom Line and Operating Profit of the To enhance the productivity joined hands with other IT majors… HCL Tech has also signed MOU with Etisalat to offer collaborative ICT company for the same period grew at CAGR of 13.5% and 16% services to customers. As per the agreement, they both together will work respectively. In FY11, the Net Sales of HCL Tech jumped 34% to Rs together to explore the possibility of collaboration for offering joint ICT 6794.48 crore over FY10, Operating Profit of company surged 12% to Rs solutions to business customers in the areas of Mobility, Cloud 1516.37 crore and PAT also increased by 13.4% to Rs 1198.28 crore. In Computing and advanced ICT services. To strengthen its Software Q1FY12 (Sep 2011), the Net Sales of the company grew by 32%, Assessment Services, HCL has also joined hands with CAST, a world Operating Profit grew by 71% and PAT phenomenally jumped 104%. The leader in software analysis and measurement. CAST AIP tool that allows OPM for the same period stood around 24% while PAT margin was 20%. analysis will augment assessment service to HCL's worldwide clients, INVESTMENT GROUNDS and measurement of essential structural quality attributes. Indian IT exporters generate more than 90% of their revenue from the developed economy and any unfavorable economic conditions in these Quarter & Year Ended Sep-11 Sep-10 %Chg JUN-FY11 developed countries affects the growth of IT sector in India. As we can Net Sales (Rs Cr) 1979.22 1498.32 32.1 6794.48 see that right now due to current economic uncertainty the IT sector has Operating Profit (Rs Cr) 475.54 278.32 70.9 1516.37 been impacted, though dollar appreciated against rupee and played a OPM% (Chg in bps) 24.03 18.58 545 22.32 vital role to offset several revenue losses for the past quarter. However, PAT (Rs Cr) 397.55 194.88 104.0 1198.28 in forth coming period the situation is likely to improve as many global PATM% (Chg in bps) 20.09 13.01 708 17.64 software providers expressed that uncertainty has failed to affect EPS (Rs) 5.76 3.46 2.9 17.4 Dividend (%) 0 0 0 375 software and services spending. On the other hand, the individual Equity (Rs Cr) 137.96 136 1.4 137.74 efficiency of IT companies like increasing outsourcing contracts and Data Matrix as on 01.11.2011 Key Financial Ratios (TTM) introducing new business models can make them competent for this CMP (Rs) 430.75 P/E (x) TTM 21.22 environment. 52- Week High (Rs) 528.4 P/BV (x) TTM 4.91 Timely contract Execution Track Record is an advantage… 52- Week Low (Rs) 360.1 EV/TTM EBIDTA (x) 15.28 With the new contracts worth Rs US$2bn during past six months, HCL Latest Book Value (Rs) 87.65 EV/TTM Sales (x) 4.08 Tech is focusing to obtain more large deals. HCL Tech featured among Face Value (Rs) 2 MCap/ TTM Sales( x) 4.09 TPI's Global 6 IT Services providers by TCVs awarded, across all the Total No of Shares (Cr) 68.98 Total Debt/Equity (x) 0.18 three regions of the world has won multiple transformational deals and Avg. Monthly Vol. (Lakhs) 10.04 ROA (%) 18.12 Market Cap (Rs Cr) 29,728 ROE (%) 23.08 has a record of accomplishment to deliver them with timely execution Beta (Sensex) 1.16 ROCE (%) 21.04 with excellent customer supports. It has collaborated with Apacheta to Industry P/E 19.55 Dividend Yield (%) 1.74 provide global delivery of mobile sales, delivery and merchandising Major Shareholders as on 30 Sep 2011 solutions to consumer goods industry to enhance operational Promoters (%) 64.27 FIIs (%) 20.51 efficiencies & provide improved time-to-market benefits. Non-Institutions (%) 8.51 DIIs (%) 6.71 “Education is the foundation of success. Just as scholastic skills are vitally important, so are financial skills and communication skills.” 5
  • 6. MARKET TUTORIALS make more, for sure. OPTIONS STRATEGY – BEAR PUT SPREAD Remember that, in our first option strategy tutorial we have discussed an option strategy called Bull Call Spread, that strategy is known as a bullish option strategy, employed when the options trader expects the underlying stock price to move upwards. Now in this edition we will discuss Bear Put Spread, which is the reverse of a Bull Call Spread and works the same way in the opposite direction. “Bear Put Spread involves simultaneously purchase of a put option on a particular underlying stock, and writing a put option on the same underlying stock with the same expiration month, but with a lower strike price”. This kind of spread generally categorized as “Vertical Spread” because you have to pay some amount of money to hold this position, which is also known as a Debit Spread. When & How to use Bear Put Spread? Bear Put Spread is a type of options strategy used when an option trader expects a decline in the price of the underlying asset. Bear Put deducting the net premium paid from the Strike price of the Spread is achieved by purchasing put options at a specific strike price purchased put. To understand the bear put spread let us take an while also selling the same number of puts at a lower strike price. In example, suppose stock of a company is trading at Rs 38 in Oct. An fact, this option strategy is also a method to buy put options at a options trader bearish on this stock decides to enter a bear put spread discount, because you sell to open an Out of the Money (OTM) put position by buying a Oct 40 put for Rs 300 and sell a Oct 35 put for Rs option in this option strategy, which reduces investment on our In 100 at the same time, resulting in a net debit of Rs 200 for entering this The Money (ITM) or At The Money (ATM) Put options. This option position. The price of stock subsequently drops to Rs 34 at expiration. strategy would be an ideal strategy for the beginners who want to Both puts expire in-the-money with the Oct 40 put bought having Rs profit from a down market as it reduces upfront payment and 600 in intrinsic value and the Oct 35 put sold having Rs 100 in intrinsic therefore the risk of the position too. value. The spread would then have a net value of Rs 5 (the difference in strike price). Deducting the debit taken when he placed the trade, Advantages of Bear Put Spread his net profit is Rs 300. This is also his maximum possible profit. If the Bear Put Spread can be considered a double hedging strategy as the stock had rallied to Rs 420 instead, both options expire worthless, price paid for the put with the higher strike price is partially and the options trader loses the entire debit of Rs 200 taken to enter compensate by the premium received from writing the put with a the trade. This is also the maximum possible loss. lower strike price. Thus, the investor's investment in the long put and the risk of losing the entire premium paid for it is reduced or hedged. Conclusion: The bear put spread is a debit spread as the difference The position is hedged as loss is limited if the underlying asset rises between the sale and purchase of the two options results in a net debit. instead of fall while on the other hand if the underlying asset fails to This spread is sometimes more broadly categorized as a "vertical spread": fall beyond the strike price of the out of the money short call option, a family of spreads involving options of the same stock, same expiration the profit yield will be greater than just buying put options. It is also a month, but different strike prices. Either they can be created with all calls way of buying put options at a discount by selling the out of the or all puts, and is bullish or bearish. The bear put spread, as any spread, money put option at a strike price beyond that which the underlying can be executed as a "package" in one single transaction, not as separate asset is expected to fall. buy and sell transactions. For this bearish vertical spread, a bid and offer for the whole package can be requested through your brokerage firm The Break Even Point with an exemplar from an exchange where the options are listed and traded. Hope this The Break-even point for the Bear Put Spread can be achieved by option strategy helps to make some reasonable profits in falling markets. “Customers want brands that are narrow in scope and distinguishable by a single word, the shorter the better.” 6
  • 7. COMMODITY UPDATES: PROFIT BOOKING SCENARIO MORE ON THE CARDS CRUDE OIL: Crude oil prices recoiled on last trading of the week as investors grew worried that the recent sharp upmove in prices will not be sustained amid uncertainties over the European accord. Fuel prices also weighed down by the marginal appreciation in American greenback which made the dollar denominated commodity costlier for holders' of other currencies. Meanwhile, the crude oil prices also got undermined by reports that Japanese manufacturing activity declined in September for the first time since the devastating March earthquake, indicating that the slowing global growth is hurting nation's economy. Benchmark crude for December delivery fell by $0.64, or 0.68% to settle at $93.32 a barrel on, after trading as high as $93.93 and as low as $92.01 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent crude for December delivery plummeted $2.17 or 1.94% to $109.91 a barrel, on the ICE Futures exchange. GOLD: Gold prices halted the five straight session northbound journey on Friday (28/10/2011) and settled marginally below the neutral line, concluding the week with 6.8% gains. Market participants took a breather on last trading day of the week after the recent non-stop rally, lacking any significant cues to take the bullion prices higher. The first trading session of a new week as marketmen chose to take profits yellow metal prices see-sawed between gains and losses through the off the table after the spike up in American dollar and growing doubts session as investors turned cautious after they shifted their attention on over Europe's bailout plan undermined sentiments. However, the red the challenges in implementing new measures to resolve the region's metal prices also got weighed down after a data showed that the debt trouble. Gold futures for December delivery eased $0.50 or 0.03% Chicago PMI fell more-than-expected to a seasonally adjusted 58.4 last to settle at $1,747.20 an ounce, after trading as high as $1,754 and as low month from 60.4 in the preceding month. Copper futures for December as $1,733 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, delivery slumped 7.40 cents or 2% to settle at $3.6320 per lb after whereas the spot gold prices shed $2.3 to $1,743.40 an ounce. trading as high as $3.7425 and as low as $3.4890 on the Comex metals COPPER: Copper prices extended the gaining streak for yet another division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Copper for three- session on Friday (28/102011) and even climbed to the highest levels in month delivery on the London Metal Exchange plummeted $175 to end around five weeks as marketmen continued to pile positions in the at $8,000 a tonne. industrial metal amid expectations that the European deal would Meanwhile investors relentlessly accumulated positions in the growth prevent the global economy from dipping into recession and improve sensitive metal after Europe's hard-won debt deal to save the Euro- the metal's demand prospects. However, the upside in the red metal zone and the global economy from recession. Investors' morale also got prices was capped as reports that Japanese manufacturing activity boosted because of an impressive US economic report which showed declined in September for the first time since the devastating March that the GDP gathered additional steam and expanded at a better than earthquake, exerted some pressure. Copper futures for December expected pace of 2.5% annual rate in the third quarter, easing concerns delivery increased 1.40 cents or 0.4% to settle at $3.706 per lb on the that the US was on the verge of a double-dip recession. The red metal Comex metals division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Copper prices also got underpinned by the depreciation in greenback which for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange added $30 to made the dollar priced metal look more attractive to global investors. end at $8,175 a tonne. However Copper prices got pummeled on the “Success of today resulted from the failure of yesterday.” 7
  • 8. AUXILIARY SECTION make more, for sure. ALERT FOR CLIENTS SERVICE FOR MANSUKH SECURITIES Introduction Mansukh Securities has brought Alert for Clients Service for its customers to remain informed and connected with the stock market while on move. Jaamoon Alc Features: 1. Conditional Alerts - This feature allows users to set alerts based on price trends. 2. Periodic Alerts - This feature allows users to set time-based alerts. 3. Market Open and Market Close Alerts - This feature allows users to set alerts based on Market Open and Market Close conditions. Steps To Register And Use Alc Platform a. Click http://www.moneysukh.com. b. Click c. Click on New user click here and register yourself by entering your mobile number, first name and last name. d. SMS having your username and system generated password will be sent to your registered mobile number. e. Using the login details you can now enter username and password and click Signin. f. Once you login into the application for the first time, you will be asked to change your password. It is recommended to change the password although you may ignore the warning by clicking Ignore. g. You can then click “Create alert” link to create your own alerts h. You can also view the alerts you have created using “View alerts” link