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Pharma Market Growth in Indonesia                          Johannes Setijono                                2011Excellence...
Macro Environment & TrendExcellence in Execution
Indonesia by the NumbersThe growth of Indonesian real GDP reached 6.1% in 2010                                      GDP Gr...
Indonesia by the NumbersRegional GDP Growth – 2011 E   %   9     8.5       8.5   8   7                          6.5   6   ...
Outlook for Year 2008 – 2015 • In 2004, Indonesia was still number 25-26 with Saudi Arabia • In 2007, we were number 20, b...
Indonesia’s Health Spending Trends•    Total expenditure on health averaged 2% of GDP                 Total Expenditure on...
Relevant Trends in Indonesia Growing wealth of middle class to drive demand• Middle class to rise from 19% of Asian popula...
Relevant Trends in Indonesia  Urbanization      •     Urban areas in Indonesia grew at an annual rate of 3.8% between 1990...
Relevant Trends in Indonesia     Demographic              Indonesian population by Generation Group 2010-2016 (in ‘000)300...
Industri Farmasi IndonesiaExcellence in Execution
Global pharma market tumbuh lebih dari US$1,200 billiondi tahun 2014, didorong oleh Pharmerging marketsSource: IMS Health,...
Meskipun pasar APAC melambat, tetapi pasar  China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam diperkirakan tumbuh “double  digit”      ...
China merupakan market terbesar APAC, dan generiktumbuh paling pesat dibanding branded.                                   ...
China di tahun 2009 menempati ranking 5 dan diperkirakannaik ke ranking 3 untuk pasar farmasi di dunia ASEAN Market Overvi...
Growth driver China pharmaceutical market• Kenaikan GDP• Jumlah penduduk menengah atas yang meningkat tajam  gaya hidup  ...
Pola kenaikan GDP Indonesia sama denganChina dan India……Excellence in Execution
Indonesia merupakan lapisan 3 sumberpertumbuhan pharma dunia….Excellence in Execution
Di kawasan ASEAN, pasar farmasi Indonesia masihmenjadi magnet untuk investasi                                             ...
Profil Industri Farmasi   Industri farmasi Indonesia mempunyai market    share yang baik (perusahaan farmasi domestik    ...
Secara value, pasar ethical dan OTC mengalamipertumbuhan yang melambatASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe F...
Secara unit, pasar ethical dan OTC mengalamikenaikan..ASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe Farma   Source: I...
Sumber pertumbuhan pasar ethical adalah volume, BUKAN lagiberasal dari harga; yang mengakibatkan beberapa industrimemperlu...
Terjadi penurunan jumlah produk baru yang diluncurkan                                                       Number of Prod...
Pasar farmasi Indonesia 2006 – 2014 (est.)      Pasar Indonesia diperkirakan mengalami      pertumbuhan CAGR 13.4% karena ...
Pasar Farmasi Indonesia  Prospek industri farmasi di Indonesia masih tumbuh dengan   baik dan menjanjikan  Kita harus me...
Excellence in Execution
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Pharmaceutical market in indonesia

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Pharmaceutical market in indonesia

  1. 1. Pharma Market Growth in Indonesia Johannes Setijono 2011Excellence in Execution
  2. 2. Macro Environment & TrendExcellence in Execution
  3. 3. Indonesia by the NumbersThe growth of Indonesian real GDP reached 6.1% in 2010 GDP Growth In Indonesia • With these developments, 8000 30 Nominal GDP can grow about 26.27 7,500 15%, which is around 7000 Rp 7,500 Tn or about $ 850 Bn in 6,500 25 2011 6000 20.87 20.37 5,613 • Income per capita will reach about (In IDR Trillion) 20 5000 17.43 4,951 $ 3,500 (In %) 15.80 4000 14.01 3,921 15 15.38 3,339 13.37 3000 2,774 10 2,295 2000 6.3 6.8 5 6.1 6.1 1000 5 5.7 5.5 4.5 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Nominal GDP Nominal GDP Growth Real GDP GrowthSource: Prospek Perekonomian Indonesia 2011 – Cyrillus Harinowo Excellence in Execution
  4. 4. Indonesia by the NumbersRegional GDP Growth – 2011 E % 9 8.5 8.5 8 7 6.5 6 5.5 5.5 5 5 5 4.3 4.1 4 4 3 2 1.4 1 0 Indonesia Singapore Philippines Thailand Malaysia Hongkong Taiwan India Korea Japan China Source: Macquarie Research, October 2010 Excellence in Execution
  5. 5. Outlook for Year 2008 – 2015 • In 2004, Indonesia was still number 25-26 with Saudi Arabia • In 2007, we were number 20, beyond Austria, Norway and Taiwan • In 2008, we had surpassed Switzerland, Belgium and Sweden, so that put us at number 18-19 • In 2015, our economy will generate income per capita of about $ 5,000 (such as Malaysia in 2006 but with a population of 8x more). If in the year 2011 our income per capita reached approximately $ 3,500, then the above target is likely to be exceeded • This 5 years period will be very crucial to the Indonesian business world. (Various foreign investors will expand or penetrate the market within the next 5 years)Excellence in Execution
  6. 6. Indonesia’s Health Spending Trends• Total expenditure on health averaged 2% of GDP Total Expenditure on Health as % of GDP over the 11 year period 1996-2006. 2.5 2.0• The Government is planning to implement the 1.5 National Social Security System. Since 2004, the 1.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Government has implemented healthcare Source: The World Bank program for poor people through Asuransi Share of Total Health Expenditure (%) 1996-2006 Kesehatan Masyarakat Miskin (Health Insurance 70 60 for Poor Population) or Askeskin program and 50 currently is replaced by Jaminan Kesehatan 40 30 Masyarakat (Public Health Insurance Scheme for 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 the Population) or Jamkesmas program. public private out-of-pocket private Source: WHO National Health Accounts database, September 2008• In Q4 2009, the new Healthcare Law has been Total Expenditure on Health as % of GDP approved and provides guideline for Government Indonesia 2.5 to increase the healthcare spending from 2% up Philippines 3.2 to 5% of GDP (Healthcare Law No. 36/2009, Malaysia 4.2 Article 171 paragraph 1) China 4.7 India 5.0 Vietnam 6.0 - 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Source: Daily Newspaper Suara Pembaruan , 29 March 2010 Excellence in Execution
  7. 7. Relevant Trends in Indonesia Growing wealth of middle class to drive demand• Middle class to rise from 19% of Asian population in 2009 to 30% by 2014• Indonesia has a young population, where 44% are below 24 years old Source: CLSA Mr & Mrs Asia Moving up the J-curves – Spring 2010Excellence in Execution
  8. 8. Relevant Trends in Indonesia Urbanization • Urban areas in Indonesia grew at an annual rate of 3.8% between 1990 and 2005, compared to the average growth in total population of 1.4% per annum • As of end-2009, 44% of Indonesia’s population live in urban areas • Based on United Nation’s estimates, the urbanization trend will continue to accelerate, increasing the proportion of people living in urban areas to 65% by 2050. We expect this trend to facilitate growth in health careSource: Merrill Lynch Equity -ASEAN-Real Estate/Property – August 2010Excellence in Execution
  9. 9. Relevant Trends in Indonesia Demographic Indonesian population by Generation Group 2010-2016 (in ‘000)300,000 2010 vs 2016 Growth250,000 43,360 45,076 46,862 48,708 50,461 26.0% 40,058 41,686200,000 49,305 50,294 51,251 52,192 53,103 53,997 54,893 11.3%150,000100,000 103,127 103,233 103,317 103,369 103,353 103,271 103,311 0.2% 50,000 40,988 41,118 41,247 41,377 41,498 41,595 41,673 1.7% - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Gen Z (age 0 - 9) Gen Y (age 10 - 34) Gen X (age 35 - 49) Baby Boomers (age 50 - 75+) • From the chart above, baby boomers and retire (>54) population have the biggest growth until 2016 people’s life expectancy longer  people’s health awareness higher • Productive people (25 – 54) (gen X and partial gen Y) also growing around 11.3% Source: Data Statistik Indonesia Excellence in Execution
  10. 10. Industri Farmasi IndonesiaExcellence in Execution
  11. 11. Global pharma market tumbuh lebih dari US$1,200 billiondi tahun 2014, didorong oleh Pharmerging marketsSource: IMS Health, Market Prognosis, Mar 2010. New Pharmerging definitionASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe Farma Excellence in Execution
  12. 12. Meskipun pasar APAC melambat, tetapi pasar China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam diperkirakan tumbuh “double digit” Historical Growth 2005 – 2009 CAGR (LCD/MNF)IMS data Bubble size corresponds to 2014 Sales Excellence in Execution
  13. 13. China merupakan market terbesar APAC, dan generiktumbuh paling pesat dibanding branded. China Market Sales Growth by Segment IMS MIDAS Q2 2010ASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe Farma Excellence in Execution
  14. 14. China di tahun 2009 menempati ranking 5 dan diperkirakannaik ke ranking 3 untuk pasar farmasi di dunia ASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe Farma Excellence in Execution
  15. 15. Growth driver China pharmaceutical market• Kenaikan GDP• Jumlah penduduk menengah atas yang meningkat tajam  gaya hidup berubah, termasuk meningkatnya health spending; dan meningkatnya kebutuhan health service & product yang lebih baik• Regulasi pemerintah yang lebih baik: – Kebijakan untuk meningkatkan kualitas industri farmasi (dari 5000  3500 industri farmasi (2004) – Kebijakan perluasan asuransi kesehatan nasional dan perbaikan list obat dalam asuransi – Kebijakan investasi yang mendukung perkembangan industri farmasi, baik dalam bidang riset bahan baku sampai produk jadi dan biotechnology serta TCM – Kebijakan IP, tenaga kerja ekonomis  investasi asing masuk – Kebijakan kolaborasi ABG yang kuat & Insentif terhadap riset – Kebijakan peningkatan kualitas pelayanan RS• Akses healthcare yang lebih baik  perbaikan dalam sarana kesehatan• Peningkatan kualitas produk; riset bahan baku dan produk jadi serta biotechnology; distribusi produk• Jumlah retail yang berkembang dengan pesatExcellence in Execution
  16. 16. Pola kenaikan GDP Indonesia sama denganChina dan India……Excellence in Execution
  17. 17. Indonesia merupakan lapisan 3 sumberpertumbuhan pharma dunia….Excellence in Execution
  18. 18. Di kawasan ASEAN, pasar farmasi Indonesia masihmenjadi magnet untuk investasi Historical performance of ASEAN markets ASEAN Annual growth rate =14.7% ASEAN 4-year CAGR =14.2%Source: IMS MIDAS MAT Dec 2010. ‘ASEAN’ includes Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia & Singapore in USDASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe Farma Excellence in Execution
  19. 19. Profil Industri Farmasi Industri farmasi Indonesia mempunyai market share yang baik (perusahaan farmasi domestik mendominasi pasar Indonesia) Ketergantungan pada bahan baku impor menyebabkan industri farmasi sangat rentan pada perkembangan harga bahan baku obat di pasar internasional dan fluktuasi nilai tukar (lebih dari 90% bahan baku obat diimpor) Penyerapan tenaga kerja di seluruh rantai farmasi sekitar 250.000 tenaga kerja 208 produsen farmasi termasuk 33 perusahaan asing & 4 BUMN di Indonesia dapat memenuhi kebutuhan seluruh sektor ekonomi masyarakat Indonesia, dari lapisan atas ke bawahExcellence in Execution
  20. 20. Secara value, pasar ethical dan OTC mengalamipertumbuhan yang melambatASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe Farma Source: IMS,: ITMA, MAT 4Q10 Excellence in Execution
  21. 21. Secara unit, pasar ethical dan OTC mengalamikenaikan..ASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe Farma Source: IMS, ITMA, MAT 4Q10 Excellence in Execution
  22. 22. Sumber pertumbuhan pasar ethical adalah volume, BUKAN lagiberasal dari harga; yang mengakibatkan beberapa industrimemperluas fasilitasnya EGS MAT 4Q09 Interaction EGS MAT 4Q10 New Products 1% New Products Interaction 5% 3% 1% Price Changes 23% Price Changes 40% Line Extension 5% Volume Change Volume Change 49% 68% Line Extension 5% Value= 19,564 bn Value= 21,945 bn Growth = +14.0% Growth = +12.2%ASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe Farma Source: IMS: ITMA-Ethical Only MAT 4Q10 Excellence in Execution
  23. 23. Terjadi penurunan jumlah produk baru yang diluncurkan Number of Products Launch per Year250200150100 Avg : 150 50 Avg : 63 Avg : 33 0 Avg : 9 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Foreign Ethical Foreign OTC Local Ethical Local OTCASEAN Market Overview specially prepared for Kalbe Farma Source: IMS: ITMA-Ethical Only MAT 4Q10 Excellence in Execution
  24. 24. Pasar farmasi Indonesia 2006 – 2014 (est.) Pasar Indonesia diperkirakan mengalami pertumbuhan CAGR 13.4% karena didorong oleh: • pertumbuhan GDP 7 • health spending government • % rakyat yang mempunyai asuransi • kepedulian masyarakat terhadap kesehatan 6 CAGR = 13.4% • demografi 5 CAGR = 12.4% 4 3 2 1 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.4 6.1 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Excellence in Execution
  25. 25. Pasar Farmasi Indonesia  Prospek industri farmasi di Indonesia masih tumbuh dengan baik dan menjanjikan  Kita harus mengantisipasi perubahan-perubahan yang terjadi baik dari segi demografi, urbanisasi, dan juga perubahan sistem, seperti asuransi  Dengan adanya pressure atau tekanan dari pemerintah, pertumbuhan pasar farmasi Indonesia akan lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh kenaikan volume dan produk baru, dibandingkan dengan kenaikan hargaExcellence in Execution
  26. 26. Excellence in Execution

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