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Modeling Complex SD

     DELAYS AND TABLES




         Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
                University-Manila
Types of Rate Equations
(Var.kl = …)
 Constant*Level.k
 Level.k/life
 (goal.k-level.k)/adjustment
 aux.k*level.k
 level.k/aux.k
 norm.k+effect.k
 norm.k*effect.k
           Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
                  University-Manila
The Spreading Virus Problem
 Virus starts with a few people who are
 susceptible to the virus. These
 susceptible people will become infected
 and in turn become sick. Once people
 get sick, they start taking medicine, as
 time progresses, these people will
 slowly get cured and on their way to
 recovery.
           Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
                  University-Manila
The Spreading Virus Problem

                        Susceptible People




Recovered People

                                                     Infected People




                     Sick People




                   Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
                          University-Manila
Examples of Delays: Delay1
R SYMP.KL=DELAY1 (INF.KL, TSS)
Where     TSS = time to show symptoms
          INF = infection rate
          SYMP = symptom rate




Healthy           Incubate                  Sick              Recovered
           INF                 SYM                      REC


                             Delay1(INF.KL,TIME)




                      Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
                             University-Manila
Examples of Delays: Delay3
        SYMP.KL=DELAY3 (INF.KL, TSS)
        Where        TSS = time to show symptoms
                     INF = infection rate
                     SYMP = symptom rate




Susceptible           Incubate1           Incubate2                  Incubate3          Sic
              INFC                INC1                  INC2                     INC3



                                      Delay3(INFC.KL,TSS)




                                   Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
                                          University-Manila
Effect of Delays
 What happens to the diagram if there is
 an incubation period?
 What do you think is the behavior of
 the levels and the rates in this system?
 SMOOTH – delay command for
 information. Ex. smooth1, smooth3


           Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
                  University-Manila
Effect of Delays




         Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
                University-Manila
The TABLE COMMAND
    TABLE – use to describe a variable that
    is not a simple algebraic equation
    SYNTAX:
A   VAR.K = TABLE (table_name, input_to_table, min-x, max-x, x-inc)
T   table_name = y0/y1/y2/ … /yn

NOTE: n is equal to the number of x points available between min-x up to max-x.




                        Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
                               University-Manila
TABLE Example
    A SALESMEN.K = TABLE (TSE, DDRM.K, 0, 10, 1)
    T TSE = 400/388/348/292/212/152/100/60/32/12/8
    R ORDERS.KL = SALESMEN.K*SALES/PERSON.K
    Where
    TSE = table for SALEMEN
    DDRM.K = delivery delay (level or auxiliary variable, or even a rate
      variable)

X   0     1     2     3          4       5       6       7    8    9    10

Y   400   388   348   292        212     152     100     60   32   12   8




                            Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
                                   University-Manila
TEST Commands
 RAMP - continuous growing or declining linear function of TIME.
 Var = RAMP(A,B)
Where A = represents the slope of the linear function
          B = represents the starting time of the ramp
 NOISE - The noise function allows us to vary the value of a
 variable by –0.5 to 0.5. This command allows us to exhibit a
 little bit of randomness, but still maintaining the pattern of
 behavior. NOISE exhibits a uniform distribution.
 Var = A*NOISE()+B
 Where A and B are constants and that the value of Var is
 centered between A and B.

                  Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
                         University-Manila
TEST Commands
  PULSE – creates a sudden increase in the behavior and
  drops back to its original state.
  PULSE(HEIGHT,WIDTH,FIRST,INTVL) – from VENSIM
  -A pulse of height , starting at time FIRST and every INTVL
  lasting WIDTH time units.
  STEP – creates a step change in the behavior and does
  not return to its original state.
  STEP(H,T) – from VENSIM
  - Returns 0 till time T and then H.

Note: DYNAMO commands for PULSE and STEP will have a slightly
  different syntax.
                    Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle
                           University-Manila

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Modeling Complex SD

  • 1. Modeling Complex SD DELAYS AND TABLES Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle University-Manila
  • 2. Types of Rate Equations (Var.kl = …) Constant*Level.k Level.k/life (goal.k-level.k)/adjustment aux.k*level.k level.k/aux.k norm.k+effect.k norm.k*effect.k Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle University-Manila
  • 3. The Spreading Virus Problem Virus starts with a few people who are susceptible to the virus. These susceptible people will become infected and in turn become sick. Once people get sick, they start taking medicine, as time progresses, these people will slowly get cured and on their way to recovery. Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle University-Manila
  • 4. The Spreading Virus Problem Susceptible People Recovered People Infected People Sick People Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle University-Manila
  • 5. Examples of Delays: Delay1 R SYMP.KL=DELAY1 (INF.KL, TSS) Where TSS = time to show symptoms INF = infection rate SYMP = symptom rate Healthy Incubate Sick Recovered INF SYM REC Delay1(INF.KL,TIME) Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle University-Manila
  • 6. Examples of Delays: Delay3 SYMP.KL=DELAY3 (INF.KL, TSS) Where TSS = time to show symptoms INF = infection rate SYMP = symptom rate Susceptible Incubate1 Incubate2 Incubate3 Sic INFC INC1 INC2 INC3 Delay3(INFC.KL,TSS) Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle University-Manila
  • 7. Effect of Delays What happens to the diagram if there is an incubation period? What do you think is the behavior of the levels and the rates in this system? SMOOTH – delay command for information. Ex. smooth1, smooth3 Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle University-Manila
  • 8. Effect of Delays Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle University-Manila
  • 9. The TABLE COMMAND TABLE – use to describe a variable that is not a simple algebraic equation SYNTAX: A VAR.K = TABLE (table_name, input_to_table, min-x, max-x, x-inc) T table_name = y0/y1/y2/ … /yn NOTE: n is equal to the number of x points available between min-x up to max-x. Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle University-Manila
  • 10. TABLE Example A SALESMEN.K = TABLE (TSE, DDRM.K, 0, 10, 1) T TSE = 400/388/348/292/212/152/100/60/32/12/8 R ORDERS.KL = SALESMEN.K*SALES/PERSON.K Where TSE = table for SALEMEN DDRM.K = delivery delay (level or auxiliary variable, or even a rate variable) X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Y 400 388 348 292 212 152 100 60 32 12 8 Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle University-Manila
  • 11. TEST Commands RAMP - continuous growing or declining linear function of TIME. Var = RAMP(A,B) Where A = represents the slope of the linear function B = represents the starting time of the ramp NOISE - The noise function allows us to vary the value of a variable by –0.5 to 0.5. This command allows us to exhibit a little bit of randomness, but still maintaining the pattern of behavior. NOISE exhibits a uniform distribution. Var = A*NOISE()+B Where A and B are constants and that the value of Var is centered between A and B. Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle University-Manila
  • 12. TEST Commands PULSE – creates a sudden increase in the behavior and drops back to its original state. PULSE(HEIGHT,WIDTH,FIRST,INTVL) – from VENSIM -A pulse of height , starting at time FIRST and every INTVL lasting WIDTH time units. STEP – creates a step change in the behavior and does not return to its original state. STEP(H,T) – from VENSIM - Returns 0 till time T and then H. Note: DYNAMO commands for PULSE and STEP will have a slightly different syntax. Dennis T. Beng Hui, De La Salle University-Manila