Mobile Games Market Trends Q1 2018 from Priori Data

Mobile Gaming Market
Trends
Ben Nolan
Director of Business
Development, Priori Data

@bnolan0 // @prioridata
Who is this guy and what’s a Priori Data?

Who is this guy and what’s a Priori Data?
● Joined Priori ≈4 years ago, wore lots of hats,
now take care of something like “Growth”.
Favourite part of the job is working together
with our community of awesome partners and
clients!
● Play sports under the water (underwater
hockey and rugby).
● Have a crippling addiction to World of
Warships that my girlfriend doesn’t know
about.

● 4m apps from App Store & Google Play
● 55 international markets
● All categories & genres
● Keywords, Ranks, Downloads, Revenue,
DAU, MAU, Retention, ARPDAU, Audience
● Founded in Berlin in 2013
● 20 people
Apps
Competitive Benchmarking
& Tracking
We are a Mobile App Intelligence Company
5
Keywords
App Store Keyword
Optimization
Markets
Market Sizing, Screening,
and New Entrant Detection

6
We Have Built a Broad and Rich Data Scope
App Stores
App inventory
Keyword data
Ratings & reviews
Creative assets
App Publishers
Store credentials
Downloads
Revenue
Active Devices
Mobile Users
Engagement
Retention
Location
Device make & model
2013 2015 2017
>4m+ apps
>1,500
companies
>350m monthly
uniques

Our Data Summary Map:
Our data layer is comprised of publicly available “store feeds” from the app stores and
proprietary “partner feeds” shared with us by our publisher partners.
7
Public
Store
Feeds
Priori DNA
0
Inventory
Chart
Ranks
Ratings
Reviews
Metadata
Strategic SDK data collectors
Install
revenue
IAP
revenue
30-day retention
Active devices
Downloads

“The Curve”: ranks vs. actuals
The relationship between downloads / revenues and top chart ranks follows a curve. By partnering with app
developers, we’re figuring out what this curve looks like in every single category/country combination.
8
The Process:
1. Plot store ranks against
actual performance
(download / revenue)
data
2. Create estimate model
that describes the
relationship between
rank and performance
3. Use model to predict
downloads / revenues at
each rank positionStore Feed “Ranks”
Partner Feed
“Downloads”
0 50 100 150 200 250
30,00
0
20,00
0
10,000
0

Where’s the data from, and what are the caveats that need
to be made?
● At the end of the day, our estimates is only as good as the underlying data supply and are
limited by the modelling techniques available to us.
● Our models are designed to predict performance based on historical data. This means that
when a game comes along that absolutely breaks the mold, it is hard for us to be accurate.
● China Android is huge, and very difficult to track.
● ACCORDING TO OUR DATA…. I’ll say this a lot!

Market Trends
What’s going on out there?

What do people want? More games!

What kinds of games do people want?

What games are people only just learning they want (GP)?

What games are people only just learning they want (iOS)?

Where’s the money at?
It’s on Mobile! $$$!
Data via Newzoo

Where’s the money at, on iOS?

Where’s the money at, on GP?

What game categories are people learning to pay for (GP)?

What game categories are people learning to pay for (iOS)
Apple removed several iOS categories in late 2017, as well as
many apps not updated for 64 bit architecture, and for the first
time ever, iOS developers shipped less apps, which both
contributed to the decline in these categories.

What kinds of games do people want to pay for (GP)?

What kinds of games do people want to pay for (iOS)?
???

What do people really want, long term?

What does all this mean? Where is the opportunity?
Additional data points via Chartboost Insights.

I appreciate this is all quite general - if you want specific
data, come find me tomorrow and we can take a look at
the live data for you - no strings attached.

Industry & Genre Trends
Hot or not?

High-End experiences are finding their way to mobile. Why?
28@bnolan0 // @prioridata
● Consumers are getting used to spending on mobile - budgets are there for high end games to
make sense.
● Mobile hardware is getting seriously powerful, and prices are coming down. Phones from
brands like Xiaomi and OnePlus pack a lot of bang for the buck.
● Technology and infrastructure has reached a point in developed markets that enable high
fidelity gaming at low latency.
Data via Newzoo

What’s one of the benefits of great hardware? Esports for
everyone!
29@bnolan0 // @prioridataData via Newzoo

What’s one of the benefits of great hardware? Esports for
everyone!

Battle Royale… hot or not?
≈60% of market are 2 titles, no real
competitors

Let’s talk about AR/VR - money going in, but..
32@bnolan0 // @prioridatahttps://www.digi-capital.com/news/2018/01/record-over-3b-ar-vr-investment-in-2017-1-5
b-in-q4/#.WwCjjFOFPOQ

Not a whole lot coming out yet.

Technology Trends
What new technology is winning?

Blockchain Hype.. What’s it really good for?
35@bnolan0 // @prioridataFrom Alto.io One Pager - www.alto.io

Everyone has a “Like Lookalike”

Even Priori!

Streaming

Business and Ops Trends

Having a plan is key, and most successful game devs have
worked this out. Most launches look like this:

Which is fine, if you have a plan to retain those users over
time...

Data is getting more necessary, but also easier to find:

And know how and advanced tools are becoming
commoditized, making it simpler to leverage...
From @sylorente at Growing Pains event in Berlin
Conclusions:
➢ ~ 72 % of loyal customers can be
identified after 2nd Question
➢ Fast and easy way to check whether
certain features have influence on
loyalty
➢ Question & Answer Length more
relevant than Response Time
➢ Age & Country more relevant than
Gender and Platform
➢ Not suited for marginal effects and
direction effects

Ad supported is on the rise.
From
https://tech.spaceapegames.com/2018/04/25/fastlane-a-growth

Mostly because we’ve moved to annoying with ads to
rewarding with ads, but consumers are wising up to the
trade...
From
https://tech.spaceapegames.com/2018/04/25/fastlane-a-growth

Which means they also expect more from games, and
reward publishers that give it to them:
From
http://blog.prioridata.com/dont-call-it-a-come-back-a-quick-loo
k-at-rovio-entertainments-2016

It’s not enough for Live Ops as an afterthought...
From:
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-01-16-some-think-l
ive-ops-is-a-sweatshop-churning-out-new-content-it-doesnt-h
ave-to-be-that-way

Luckily, knowledge is being shared, and the concept of big
secrets about techniques is slowly dying out:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zywAS1NB9V4&feature=yo
utu.be

Publishing Know How Is More Available Than Ever
● The industry is maturing, which means more people have been there, done that, and
understand the formula for success.
● Outside capital is “easier” to find - funds outside of pure games funds are seeing games as a
legitimate investment. Nearly 25% of Priori subscribers are from financial or consulting
backgrounds.
● There is more money in the market - people are spending more than ever, both consumers
and advertisers. More money - more interesting.

What does all this mean?

We live in the golden age of mobile games!
● Consumer Demand and Willingness to Pay is on the increase - the market is more attractive
than ever.
● Support and knowledge sharing is at an all time high - data is becoming more democratized.
● Whether as a publisher or an indie, although the market might be more competitive now, the
knowledge and resources required to make successful games are available.

Thanks for listening and have a great
conference!
Drop me a line if you have questions or feedback:
Email: ben@prioridata.com
Twitter: twitter.com/bnolan0

Mobile Games Market Trends Q1 2018 from Priori Data

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