This document analyzes the UK's counterterrorism policy and whether it sufficiently accounts for non-Islamic terrorist groups. It finds that while Islamic groups tend to be more deadly, they make up less than a third of terrorist organizations globally. In the UK in 2014, none of the 103 terrorism incidents were committed by Islamic groups. The document recommends further research on the effectiveness of current policy and consideration of either implementing new policies focused on non-Islamic terrorism, updating current policies to be more inclusive, or making no changes if research finds Islamic terrorism remains the primary threat. The author's preferred option is a combination of the first two - updating some policies and creating new ones where groups differ in how they respond to counterterrorism measures

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Ministerial Submission
From: Charlotte Rose Barnacle
To: [the relevant minister or senior official]
Issue
We hear a lot on how Daesh and other Jihadist groups are a major threat to the UK and the
western way of life. It is only natural that policy reflects this. But in the UK, is Islamic terrorism
really the biggest threat? By putting our main focus on Jihadist groups we could be allowing
other groups to slip through the net. We need to examine the UK's counterterrorism policy.
Neglecting to account for all forms of terrorism could lead to unexpected attacks and
consequently political and economic problems.
Priority / Timing
This issue needs to be sorted urgently. Research could take a while, and policy can also take
a long time to change and even longer to implement, so it is important that the process is
started immediately.
Background
Current policy is geared towards Islamic terrorism and is neglectful of other forms of terror,
especially with regards to radicalisation. The following data explains the terror situation in
the UK and globally.
Using the BAAD database I have concluded that less than a third of terror organisations
worldwide have connections with Islam. Obviously it is important to note that many of these
organisation may not directly affect the UK or are no longer active, such as Shining Path.
However, this still shows us that terrorism is not a solely Islamic issue, or even a solely
religious issue. Groups such as Animal Liberation Front (ALF) have no religious connection.
Although Islamic groups are less prevalent, they tend to be more deadly. On average,
between 1998 and 2014, each Islamic group was responsible for over 400 deaths. Compare
this to the 124 deaths attributed per non-Islamic group.
However, there are issues with these statistics. According to the data, the Taliban have killed
over 14,000 people. This is quite a large outlying piece of datum. If we exclude this from the

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data, the Islamic deaths per group figure is closer to 190. This is still a fair amount larger than
the figure for groups not associated with Islam.
The Global Terrorism Database has 103 terrorism incidents recorded in the UK in 2014. None
of these were committed by Islamic groups. The majority were committed in Northern
Ireland, mainly by the New Irish Republican Army (New IRA) and the Dissident Republics.
There were also a few attacks by anarchist groups on police and military property, and a few
attacks by individuals on Mosques other Islamic property. There was one attack on the car of
a Rabbi. There were no deaths and four injuries.
Analysis and Risks
Current UK policy focuses on the threat of Islamist terrorism. As the data shows, this is an
important area of terrorism to address. Islamic terrorist groups are growing and are creating
more and more prevalent issue for the global community. Due to the size of Islamic groups
and their spread across the world, they are able to commit more attacks and prove more
deadly. Terrorism abroad does affect us here in the UK. Attacks on allies or British nationals
abroad can affect us politically and economically. Islamic terrorism does require a lot of focus.
However, due to the deadly nature of Islamic groups, other groups are being forgotten. Irish
groups such as the New IRA may not be as lethal, but they do inflict a lot of damage to
infrastructure. This creates a lot of economic issues for the UK.
Current policy could be changed in many ways to be representative of the terror situation in
the UK. Terrorism is changing and moving away from the ethno-separatist era into the 4th
wave (religious terrorism). As terrorism changes, policy will need to adapt.
Terrorist groups could change tactics and targets at any point. Without sufficient research we
could make the mistake of changing policy where it is not needed, or not changing it where it
is needed. We risk further and more lethal attacks to the UK if we don’t commit to extensive
research.
Options / recommendations
Firstly, I would recommend that no matter what, further research is needed. A review of
counterterrorism policy and how effective it is against different groups is needed. Terror
statistics need to be analysed in greater depth, and it may be useful to include a range of

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experts in the analysis, including strategists and social scientists. After this research I would
suggest one of the following options;
1. Implementing new policies which solely focus on non-Islamic terrorism to work
alongside those which focus on Islamic terrorism. This option works if it is found that
non-Islamic terrorism is equally (or more) prominent issue as Islamic terrorism in the
UK. It would allow for the different effects that policies can have on different groups.
Without updating policy we risk allowing more groups to slip through the net. Irish
terrorism, mainly taking place in Northern Ireland, is prominent and an economic
issue. It is possible that it is ignored then the group could become aware of this and
become more aggressive as they see no threat from the law. They could become
lethal. It would however mean that resources and funds would have to be spread
further.
2. Update current policies to be more inclusive of all forms of terrorism. This option
works if non-Islamic terror is found to be an issue in the UK, but is not prominent
enough to demand its own policies. It means that funds and resources would not need
to spread across further policies, keeping current policies well-funded. Smaller threats
such as anarchist groups, who are known for attacking military and police, could easily
make the jump to lethality is ignored. This option makes including these smaller strains
of terrorism than Irish and Islamic easier and cheaper to include in policy. However, it
does not allow for the disparity between different groups reactions to policy.
3. No changes to policy. This option would work if, after further research, the UK’s only
real threat comes from Islamic terrorism. It would also be appropriate if it is found
that policy is already sufficiently inclusive of non-Islamic terrorism.. Focusing on too
many different areas, especially if they are small threats, could spread resources and
funds too thinly. This would make counterterrorism ineffective across the board,
possibly resulting in more and more lethal attacks from both Islamic and non-Islamic
groups. By continuing to focus on just one form of terrorism we make sure that the
major threat is covered.
Personally, I would recommend that a combination of option one and two is undertaken.
Where policies can be updated to be more inclusive of non-Islamic groups they should be.
However, groups of different ideologies do differ in their reaction to counterterrorism
measures, so in certain situations, including dealing with radicalisation, I would suggest that
new policies need to be created.