Paige Shipp, DFW Regional Director, of Metrostudy dives deep into the data to deliver a complete view of for sale residential construction activity.

1. CONSTRUCTION
S U M M I TA U G U S T 2 2 D A L L A S
G R O U N D U P
LENDING

2. Paige has been a local real estate professional for over 16
years. As a land planner and landscape designer, Paige
played an instrumental role in creating communities for
some of DFW’s largest developers and builders.
Currently, Paige is the Regional Director for Metrostudy in
Dallas-Ft. Worth. Paige works with home builders,
developers and lenders to make informed decisions by
analyzing and interpreting Metrostudy’s extensive
proprietary data and research. Additionally, Paige is a
Licensed Broker in the State of Texas and received her
Bachelor of Landscape Architecture from the University of
Illinois.
Metrostudy
DFW Regional Director
paigeshipp

3. Ground Up Summit
Data Insights on
Housing
August 22, 2017

4. Metrostudy Research
PROPRIETARY- FIELD
RESEARCH
Future Pipeline
Finished Lot Supply
Housing Starts &
Closings Housing
Inventory
Floor Plan Detail and
Offered Pricing
PUBLIC RECORD DATA
Cleansed
Corrected
Standardized
Linked
SALES & TRAFFIC
REPORTING
Traffic
Contract Sales
Select Markets
HOME BUILDER
CONTACT DATABASE
President
Head of Sales & Mktg.
Head of Purchasing
Complete
View
for sale
residential
construction
activity
2

5. Field Research Stats
Metrostudy’s survey footprint covers 316 counties,
capturing 75% of all new home construction activity
• Tracking 35,000 active subdivisions & 28,000 future projects
• We drive over 200,000 miles every 90 days (to the moon and back, twice
each year)
• 12,000 hours in the field each quarter
• Since we began surveying in the early 80’s we’ve tracked 8.6 million lots
from future status through occupancy, and are currently tracking an
additional 1.2 million active lots and 7.6 million future lots. A total of 17.4
million lots in our survey database.
3

6. Metrostudy Definitions
• VDL – Vacant Developed Lots are the lots on a recorded plat with streets and
utilities in place, ready for a home to be built.
• Start – when a lot that was a VDL has a slab (foundation) or basement poured.
Builder permits and “Sold” signs are not counted as starts.
• UC – Homes Under Construction home is anytime after the foundation/slab
has been poured and before construction is complete.
• FV (FinVac) – Finished Vacant Homes/Inventory that are completely
constructed and ready for move‐in, but show no signs of occupancy.
• Closed – when a home was considered housing inventory previously and is
observed as an occupied home for the first time.
• MOS – Months of Supply represents the length of time that the current supply
of inventory currently exists.
4

7. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Annual Job Growth Trend
5

8. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Unemployment Rate Trend
6
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
Unemployment Rate Trend
Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.4%
8.5%
Official
Unemployment Rate
Expanded
Unemployment Rate
(U-6)

9. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Change in Employment – June 2017
Rank MSA
Total
Employment
Annual Job
Growth
Annual Job
Growth %
1 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 9,774,200 169,500 1.8%
2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 3,624,100 115,300 3.3%
3 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 6,046,800 102,600 1.7%
4 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 2,759,800 94,100 3.5%
5 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 2,626,000 80,800 3.2%
6 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 2,038,100 64,400 3.3%
7 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 2,939,500 59,600 2.1%
8 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 4,749,100 59,600 1.3%
9 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 3,306,300 59,400 1.8%
10 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 1,984,700 58,000 3.0%
11 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 3,058,900 56,100 1.9%
12 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 2,394,600 55,100 2.4%
13 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 2,012,900 49,300 2.5%
14 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 1,436,700 47,700 3.4%
15 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 1,239,300 47,200 4.0%
16 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 1,327,600 46,300 3.6%
17 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 2,043,100 43,900 2.2%
18 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 1,479,300 36,900 2.6%
19 Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 981,000 35,200 3.7%
20 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN 975,200 34,100 3.6%
21 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 1,182,400 33,500 2.9%
22 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 1,116,000 32,600 3.0%
23 Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN 1,072,800 31,800 3.1%
24 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 1,176,300 28,900 2.5%
25 Austin-Round Rock, TX 1,031,300 28,000 2.8%
27 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 1,041,300 24,300 2.4%
Source: Metrostudy-MetroUSA
7

10. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Year-over-Year Percent Changes of Major Housing Components
9.2%
12.2%
11.4%
10.0%
3.9%
7.6%
13.6%
11.5%
-3.0%
0.1%
-11.2%
6.7%
9.9%
2.6%
-3.4%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Improvement Deterioration Neutral
8

11. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Annual Starts & Closings – 6 Year History
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Annual Starts Annual Closings
9
Contraction
Neutral
Expansion

12. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Annual Starts & Annual Closings by State
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Annual Starts Annual Closings
10

13. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Top Metrostudy CBSAs – Ranked by Annual Starts
Rank Market Annual Starts Annual Change % Change
1 Dallas/Ft.Worth 31,049 1,440 4.9%
2 Houston 27,114 665 2.5%
3 Atlanta 22,594 2,001 9.7%
4 Central Florida 22,520 2,735 13.8%
5 Phoenix/Tucson 21,629 1,740 8.7%
6 Southern California 19,589 1,603 8.9%
7 Denver/Colorado Springs 19,549 1,444 8.0%
8 Austin 16,088 2,475 18.2%
9 Northern California 13,951 393 2.9%
10 Charlotte 11,929 1,320 12.4%
11 Raleigh/Durham 11,420 747 7.0%
12 Salt Lake City 11,365 1,662 17.1%
13 San Antonio 10,949 953 9.5%
14 Philadelphia Region 10,675 530 5.2%
15 Suburban Maryland 10,081 642 6.8%
16 Tampa 9,851 1,473 17.6%
17 Central California 9,736 1,065 12.3%
18 Las Vegas 9,498 1,281 15.6%
19 Nashville 9,173 1,328 16.9%
20 Northern Virginia 8,678 811 10.3%
21 Seattle 8,391 -402 -4.6%
22 South Florida 8,055 186 2.4%
23 Chicago 7,211 1,067 17.4%
24 N Jersey-NY Suburbs 7,191 1,840 34.4%
25 Jacksonville 6,861 -349 -4.8%
11

14. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Annual Starts & Annual Closings by Price Range
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
<$150k $150K-
$250k
$250k-
$300k
$300k-
$400k
$400k-
$500k
$500k-
$600k
$600k-
$700k
$700k-
$800k
$800k+
Annual Starts Annual Closings
12
Below $400K accounts for 66%
of Starts and Closings

15. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
DFW Annual Starts & Annual Closings by Price Range
13
Below $400K accounts for
66% of Starts and Closings

16. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Housing Inventory & Months of Supply – 6 Year History
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
MonthsofSupply
UnitsofInventory
Finished Vacant Under Construction Housing Months
14

17. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Housing Inventory & Months of Supply by State
15

18. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Under Construction & Finished Vacant Inventory by Market
16

19. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Housing Inventory & Annual Closings by Price Range
17

20. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
DFW Housing Inventory & Annual Closings by Price Range
18

21. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Vacant Developed Lot Inventory & Months of Supply – 6 Year History
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
VDL Inventory VDL Months
19

22. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Vacant Developed Lot Inventory Months of Supply by State
77.8
70.5
56.1
53.2
40.8
36.9
33.1
30.0
26.6
22.1
21.6
21.0
19.8
19.5
19.3
19.0
18.4
17.5
17.2
17.1
16.1
15.9
14.3
13.0
11.5
10.0
1.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Illinois
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Georgia
West Virginia
Arizona
Florida
Minnesota
Delaware
Indiana
North Carolina
Texas
South Carolina
Virginia
Nevada
Utah
Maryland
New York
California
Idaho
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Washington
New Jersey
Tennessee
Oregon
Washington DC
20

23. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Vacant Developed Lot Inventory & Months of Supply by Market
21

24. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Annual Starts & Vacant Developed Lot Inventory by Price Range
22

25. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
DFW Annual Starts & Vacant Developed Lot Inventory by Price Range
23

26. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Future Lot Inventory
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
Future Lot Inventory
24
5.5mm
6.9mm

27. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Future Lot Inventory by State
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Future Lot Inventory
25
Top 4 states account for
66% of future lot inventory

28. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Future Lot Inventory by Market
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Future Inventory
26

29. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
DFW – Future Lots under Construction
27
30,628 Lots under
Construction

30. NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET
Conclusions
28
• The Annual Job formation rate remains positive, but has levelled off
• The Unemployment Rate, at 4.4%, has continued to trend downward. Wage
growth has not been very strong in recent years, but has had a small uptick. In a
strong economy, wages grow at 3%-3.5% but are currently around 2.4%
• Housing production recording solid gains – in both starts and closings
• New home inventory for homes priced above $400,000 is inching upward
• Monitor finished vacant inventory levels; high levels of completed, unsold homes
are early indicators of a market near or at peak
• Developers and builders continue to struggle to maintain a stable inventory of
developed lots
• Millions of lots are in the concept plan stage and beyond, but their delivery is
hindered by financing and red tape
• New homes priced below $300,000 are in the greatest demand, and will be for
the remainder of this cycle

31. Contact Information
Contact Information:
Paige Shipp
Regional Director
1255 West 15th Street; Suite 240
Plano, TX 75075
Office: 972.793.0646
Cell: 214.869.4916
Email: pshipp@metrostudy.com
Twitter: @paigeshipp
Instagram: paige.shipp
Snapchat: paigeshipp