#MALG15 Keynote Address Justin Urquhart Stewart - Slideset
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MALG15 Keynote Address by Justin Urquhart Stewart, considering the conference title: "All’s fair in love & war- but what about debt?"
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#MALG15 Keynote Address Justin Urquhart Stewart - Slideset
- 1. NOVEMBER 2015 TWITTER @USTEWART WWW.7IM.CO.UK ALL IS FAIR IN LOVE & WAR
- 2. GOOD DEBT – Investing For The Future
- 3. BAD DEBT - All Washed Up!
- 4. DEBT • Personal – individuals & family • Mortgages & Investment • Making Up Cashflow • Corporate – from SMEs to Leviathans • Longer Term Equity & Bond Investment • Shorter Term Private Equity & Venture Capital • Government • Investment -Infrastructure • Cashflow – trying to balance the books
- 5. SOMEONE CHANGED THE RULES • Demographics • Working Population & Employment • Interest rates • Government Influence & Employment • Private & Company Employment • Pensions! BUT NOBODY TOLD US!
- 8. A KEY MOMENT OF ECONOMIC CHANGE 8
- 9. UNPRECEDENTED STIMULI • Low Rates • Infrastructure Spending • Quantitative Easing • Commodity Price falls
- 11. BIG IMBALANCES • Government debt and deficits • Consumer debt • Trade balances • Income distribution
- 12. AFTER THE “NOUGHTIES”-THE TINY TEENS • Low Growth • Low Inflation • Low Interest Rates • Low Returns Now make some Money!
- 13. OIL PRICES Oil price move is still happening! 59% fall 22% fall
- 14. GDP GROWTH STILL POSITIVE AVERAGE GLOBAL GROWTH CLOSE TO STATIC BUT CHANGES IN REGIONAL GROWTH RATES NOTABLE.
- 15. UNEMPLOYMENT IS FALLING GREEN – EUROPEAN, RED - UNITED STATES, YELLOW - UNITED KINGDOM
- 16. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE & Savings US, EUROZONE, UK AND JAPAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - 30 YEARS. GREY AREAS MARK RECESSIONS – EZ MEASUREMENT AGAINST GERMANY. GREEN – US AND UK HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATIO’S
- 18. RATES – LOWER FOR LONGER LHS – BASE RATES RHS 10 YEAR TREASURY YIELDS, US (RED) JAPAN (GREEN), UK ORANGE, GERMANY (PINK) CANADA (BLUE) GLOBAL YIELDS GRADUALLY INCREASING.
- 19. UK & US INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS US BASE RATES (GREEN) EXPECETED TO BE AT 2% IN SEPTEMBER 2018 SOURCE BLOOMBERG UK BASE RATES (ORANGE) EXPECTED TO BE AT 2% IN SEPTEMBER 2019
- 20. EFFECTS OF RISING RATES • MORTGAGES • Cost – not just a 0.25% effect • Qualification • Inability to Roll Over • Pension Values (Annuity Values) • Savings Values
- 22. THE WORLD BENEFITS Countries who export to the US Country % of exports to US China 16.7% Japan 17.8% South Korea 10.7% Germany 7.9% France 6.9% UK 10.5%
- 24. THE SOUFFLE RISES – at last!
- 25. EU LEVEL PLAYING FIELD.....
- 26. SOURCE: TWITTER - @MARK_WILLEM5
- 27. WATCH IT SHORTY! SOURCE: NEWEUROPE.EU/EPA
- 29. CHINA IN TRANSITION SOURCE: MRB 29 Services matter more than manufacturing and construction ……and are growing far faster
- 30. THE AGONY & THE ECSTASY
- 31. “GREAT ECONOMY -PITY ABOUT THE POLITICIANS” 31
- 32. UK Managing The Debt! Fixing the banking system Tax reform? 2 Unions No Power or Transport strategy World’s 5th - 8th -10th ?
- 33. KRANKIES – THE LOVECHILD? SOURCE: NEWEUROPE.EU/EPA
- 34. Real wages ticking up RHS - GREEN – WAGE INFLATION V RED UK CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION LIVING STANDARDS STARTING TO PICK UP AT LAST?
- 35. GOVERNMENT DEFICIT SOURCE: ONS UK Govt’ forecast to borrow £70bn in 2015/2016
- 36. SOURCE: BANK OF ENGLAND THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD INFLATION LIKELY TO STAY LOW IN THE MID-TERM
- 37. UK PMIs SOURCE:
- 38. KEYS TO ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE INEXPERIENCED POLITICIANS INEXPERIENCED CIVIL SERVICE CYNICAL MEDIA HOBBLED BANKING
- 39. UK POSITIVE ISSUES • “Re-shoring” – Noodles & Antler • Record Car production • Sheffield Steel – 40 year peak • Non EU exports now higher than EU • Rice Cookers to Asia! • Financial/Professional trade exports £55bn • Over half million business start ups 550,000 • New Financing structures • Record Employment
- 40. NOW - SOME RADICAL COMMON SENSE • Tax Reform • NI & SME • Stamp Duty – transactions & property • Sugar & Fat Tax • Finance Education • For All! • Pension Reform • Auto E • Education • Investment Reform • New Funding schemes • Housing Free & Leasehold • Infrastructure
- 41. EDUCATION –What….. • MORTGAGES • Cost – not just a 0.25% effect • Qualification • Inability to Roll Over • Pension Values (Annuity Values) • Savings Values • Financial Planning
- 42. EDUCATION – Who….. • Government • HMT • Politicians • Companies of all sizes • The Population • Schools & Universities • Families • Employees • Pensioners
- 44. KEY WORD FOR ECONOMY - CONFIDENCE
- 45. YOUR OWN PLANNING Accountants Lawyers Insurance Mortgage Providers Banks Trustees Investment ClientYour Clients Your Planning
- 46. FORWARD FINANCIAL HEADLIGHTS Cash flow – income and expenditure § Now § Long term future
- 47. SO WHAT DO YOU DO? Think broader family assets and liabilities • Managing family assets Improve Investment Discipline • Reducing Costs • Better than average Returns • Reducing Risks • Lower Volatility • Regular financial planning
- 48. FAMILY BALANCE SHEET House Car Pension Life assurance ISAs Shares & National Savings Cash Mortgage Credit Cards Loans ASSETS LIABILITIES NET BALANCE £
- 50. THE ALTERNATIVE?
- 51. HOW MUCH DO I NEED?
- 52. NOVEMBER 2015 TWITTER @USTEWART WWW.7IM.CO.UK MONEY ADVICE LIAISON GROUP