This presentation looks at GDP by industry segment. The presentation also looks at risk factors to growth.

1. 2016 Canada November GDP
PaulYoung | PaulYoung, CPA, CGA
Date: January 31, 2017

2. GDP/Canada – November 2016
This presentation will look at November 2016 GDP for Canada

3. Agenda
 GDP by Industry Segment

4. Canada GDP by Industry for November 2016
 Source – Stats Canada
• Real gross domestic product rose for the fifth
time in six months, up 0.4% in November. The
increase in November came mainly from higher
output in manufacturing, mining, quarrying, and
oil and gas extraction, finance and insurance
and construction.
• Goods-producing industries rose by 0.9%,
almost offsetting a 1.0% decline in October.
There were increases in output in
manufacturing, mining, quarrying, and oil and
gas extraction and construction.
• The utilities and the agriculture and forestry
sectors declined. Service-producing industries
were up 0.2%, mainly due to finance and
insurance, retail trade, and transportation and
warehousing.
• There was a decline in real estate and rental
and leasing, while wholesale trade edged
down.
Risks
• Retail Sales could be impacted by carbon taxation
• USA moving towards more import taxes
• Slow down in the automotive sector
• New Energy Plan USA, i.e. pipelines/refineries
• Settling of Softwood Lumber disputes
• The flow of money to infrastructure projects

5. BMO / GDP – Analysis
 Source – BMO Economics
Comments/Analysis
• Financial Services Sector led the growth for
the past year
• Mining (includingOil and Gas) seen 3.6%
growth for the past 12 months
• Manufacturing is up 0.6% for the past 12
months. Automotive carried the growth
earlier in 2017, but pulled back over the past
few months.
• Government spending is only 2.1%. Much of
the government spending has not flowed to
infrastructure
• Retail sales started off with bang earlier in
2017, but for the past few months have pulled
back
• Construction has seen slower pace as
government policies have impacted markets
like Ontario and BritishColombia
• 1.6% growth is hardly strong growth!

6. GDP / Scotiabank
 Source - Scotiabank