Using the “Magic Formula” by Larry   Holmes
Disclaimer This is not personal investment  advice or a recommendation to buy  or sell any particular security and  past performance in not necessarily  an indication of future performance
Disclaimer All personal investment decisions should be made in the context of your own financial planning goals and tolerance for risk
Disclaimer I am not affiliated with Joel Greenblatt  or his firm and  I don’t benefit  financially from the sale of his books
The Little Book That Beats The Market by Joel Greenblatt The founder and a managing partner of Gotham Capital Average annual returns of over 40% for over 20 years
There’s a crazy guy named Mr. Market
“…  if you stick to buying good companies … and to buying those companies only at bargain prices … you can end up systematically buying many of the good companies that crazy Mr. Market has decided to literally give away.” -- The Little Book That Beats The Market (p. 45)
Question: What’s a good business?
Question: What’s a good business? Answer: One with a high  return on capital
Question: What’s a bargain price?
Question: What’s a bargain price? Answer:  A business with a  high earnings yield
Okay, so what’s the Magic Formula?
Return on Capital EBIT / (Net Working Capital + Net Fixed Assets)
Earnings Yield EBIT / Enterprise Value
“…  what would happen if we decided to only buy shares in good businesses (ones with  high returns on capital) but only when  they were available at bargain prices  (priced to give us a high earnings yield)?”
“ What would happen?  Well, I’ll tell you what would happen… We would make a lot of money!”  -- The Little Book That Beats The Market (p. 51)
From 1988-2004, “owning a portfolio of approximately 30 stocks that had the  best combination of a high return on  capital and a high earnings yield would  have returned approximately  30.8 percent  per year.” -- The Little Book That Beats The Market (p. 52) Note: The S&P 500 index returned 12.4 percent per year
Question:  Why will the Magic Formula continue to work after everybody knows about it?
Question:  Why will the Magic Formula continue to work after everybody knows about it? Answer:  Because it doesn’t always work
“ The magic formula portfolio fared poorly to the market averages in 5 out of every 12 months tested.”
“ For full-year periods,  the magic  formula failed to beat the market averages once every four years.”
“ For one out of every six periods tested, the magic formula did poorly for more than  two year in a row.”
“ During those wonderful 17 years for  the magic formula, there were even  some periods when the formula did  worse than the overall market for  three years in a row!” -- The Little Book That Beats The Market (p. 70)
Step 1
Step 2 magicformulainvesting.com
Step 3 Follow the instructions to get  a list of the best businesses  selling at a bargain price
 
 
Step 4 Buy five to seven of the  top-ranked companies Note: Smaller accounts may want to  use brokers like foliofn.com
Step 5 Repeat Step 4 every two  to three months. After nine or  ten months you should have a  portfolio of 20 to 30 stocks
Step 6 Sell each stock after holding it  for one year. Use the proceeds to  buy more Magic Formula stocks according to Step 4
Step 7 Continue the process for many years Note:  Don’t even think about evaluating performance for at least three to five years
Step 8 Send Joel Greenblatt a note  and say thank you!

Magic Formula

  • 1.
    Using the “MagicFormula” by Larry Holmes
  • 2.
    Disclaimer This isnot personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security and past performance in not necessarily an indication of future performance
  • 3.
    Disclaimer All personalinvestment decisions should be made in the context of your own financial planning goals and tolerance for risk
  • 4.
    Disclaimer I amnot affiliated with Joel Greenblatt or his firm and I don’t benefit financially from the sale of his books
  • 5.
    The Little BookThat Beats The Market by Joel Greenblatt The founder and a managing partner of Gotham Capital Average annual returns of over 40% for over 20 years
  • 6.
    There’s a crazyguy named Mr. Market
  • 7.
    “… ifyou stick to buying good companies … and to buying those companies only at bargain prices … you can end up systematically buying many of the good companies that crazy Mr. Market has decided to literally give away.” -- The Little Book That Beats The Market (p. 45)
  • 8.
    Question: What’s agood business?
  • 9.
    Question: What’s agood business? Answer: One with a high return on capital
  • 10.
    Question: What’s abargain price?
  • 11.
    Question: What’s abargain price? Answer: A business with a high earnings yield
  • 12.
    Okay, so what’sthe Magic Formula?
  • 13.
    Return on CapitalEBIT / (Net Working Capital + Net Fixed Assets)
  • 14.
    Earnings Yield EBIT/ Enterprise Value
  • 15.
    “… whatwould happen if we decided to only buy shares in good businesses (ones with high returns on capital) but only when they were available at bargain prices (priced to give us a high earnings yield)?”
  • 16.
    “ What wouldhappen? Well, I’ll tell you what would happen… We would make a lot of money!” -- The Little Book That Beats The Market (p. 51)
  • 17.
    From 1988-2004, “owninga portfolio of approximately 30 stocks that had the best combination of a high return on capital and a high earnings yield would have returned approximately 30.8 percent per year.” -- The Little Book That Beats The Market (p. 52) Note: The S&P 500 index returned 12.4 percent per year
  • 18.
    Question: Whywill the Magic Formula continue to work after everybody knows about it?
  • 19.
    Question: Whywill the Magic Formula continue to work after everybody knows about it? Answer: Because it doesn’t always work
  • 20.
    “ The magicformula portfolio fared poorly to the market averages in 5 out of every 12 months tested.”
  • 21.
    “ For full-yearperiods, the magic formula failed to beat the market averages once every four years.”
  • 22.
    “ For oneout of every six periods tested, the magic formula did poorly for more than two year in a row.”
  • 23.
    “ During thosewonderful 17 years for the magic formula, there were even some periods when the formula did worse than the overall market for three years in a row!” -- The Little Book That Beats The Market (p. 70)
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
    Step 3 Followthe instructions to get a list of the best businesses selling at a bargain price
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
    Step 4 Buyfive to seven of the top-ranked companies Note: Smaller accounts may want to use brokers like foliofn.com
  • 30.
    Step 5 RepeatStep 4 every two to three months. After nine or ten months you should have a portfolio of 20 to 30 stocks
  • 31.
    Step 6 Selleach stock after holding it for one year. Use the proceeds to buy more Magic Formula stocks according to Step 4
  • 32.
    Step 7 Continuethe process for many years Note: Don’t even think about evaluating performance for at least three to five years
  • 33.
    Step 8 SendJoel Greenblatt a note and say thank you!