This memorandum is a full review of Magellan Strategies surveys from the 2012 election cycle. The memorandum goes into detail about the challenges of survey research for the cycle, and how well Magellan Strategies research held up to the final outcome.
A look at how Ragnar Research Partners was able to be so successful in the 2018 cycle, as well as the best opinion research practices heading into 2019 & beyond. This includes proper representation of cell phone-only households, weighting partisanship in every race based on previous Presidential Election results, and a rigorous, systematic, and fanatic devotion to the construction of proper stratification and sample frames.
After a week of promoting his infrastructure and budget proposals, President Trump’s approval rating stands at 39% among all Americans, one percentage point down from the previous week (40%).
The 2016 Election - How and why it's President TrumpLangerResearch
Presented at AAPOR 2017 by Sofi Sinozich, Research Analyst at Langer Research Associates, and Gregory Holyk, Senior Research Analyst at Langer Research Associates
10% of Americans perceive crime as the number one issue facing America, a 4-point increase from the beginning of the year, while President Trump's approval rating remains steady.
A look at how Ragnar Research Partners was able to be so successful in the 2018 cycle, as well as the best opinion research practices heading into 2019 & beyond. This includes proper representation of cell phone-only households, weighting partisanship in every race based on previous Presidential Election results, and a rigorous, systematic, and fanatic devotion to the construction of proper stratification and sample frames.
After a week of promoting his infrastructure and budget proposals, President Trump’s approval rating stands at 39% among all Americans, one percentage point down from the previous week (40%).
The 2016 Election - How and why it's President TrumpLangerResearch
Presented at AAPOR 2017 by Sofi Sinozich, Research Analyst at Langer Research Associates, and Gregory Holyk, Senior Research Analyst at Langer Research Associates
10% of Americans perceive crime as the number one issue facing America, a 4-point increase from the beginning of the year, while President Trump's approval rating remains steady.
President Trump’s approval rating remains statistically unchanged from last week, with 42% of all Americans approving of the job he is doing as president.
California Congressional District 22 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...Magellan Strategies
Magellan Strategies public releases of the results of a 687n autodial and cell phone survey of likely 2014 general election voters in California Congressional District 22 regarding the opinion of Immigration reform. Conducted on October 7th - 8th, 2013.
President Trump’s approval rating remains at 37% this week. Trump continues to receive strong support from his Republican base (76%), but very little support from Democrats (11%). Trump’s approval ratings on individual policies remains consistent, with the highest ratings received on the US economy (46%), employment and jobs (48%), and dealing with ISIS/ISIL (46%).
More broadly, healthcare remains the top priority among Americans (22%), with concern especially high among Democrats (28%). Republicans also say healthcare is their top issue (19%), although immigration (16%) has recently increased in importance among this group, up 5 points from last week (in contrast, immigration is seen as less critical among Democrats (6%) and Independents (5%)).
Americans continue to give Congress lackluster approval ratings with only 21% approving of the job Congress is doing. When asked about their representative specifically, Americans are more likely to approve of their individual work (44%). Republicans are the most satisfied with their Congressperson at 58%, but are not impressed with the Congress’ work as a whole (23%).
The past week has seen a notable reshuffle in the issues of most concern to Americans, with concerns about conflict and the economy climbing as healthcare wanes. Specifically, healthcare has dropped six percentage points to 16% of Americans naming it as the “most important problem facing the US today”. Concern about war and foreign conflicts (likely related to recent rhetoric regarding North Korea) both jumped six percentage points this week, tying with the economy – all at 11%.
The last seven days have also seen a marked decline in the proportion of Americans who believe the US is heading in the right direction, down to 24% (3 points down), with three fifths (60%) saying we’re on the wrong track. A significant majority of Independents now believe the US is on the wrong track, up 11 percentage points from last week. Over half of Republicans (52%) still believe we are heading in the right direction, down four percentage points since last week.
President Trump’s approval has dropped slightly and is now at 35% - although it remains significantly higher than Congress’ approval rating of 21%.
Magellan Strategies Montana US Senate Survey Release April 10, 2014Magellan Strategies
Magellan Strategies survey of 2,490 likely Montana general election voters. The survey includes a voter mood question, US Senate ballot test of Steve Daines, John Walsh, and Roger Roots, and a Congressional generic ballot test.
Descriptive and Inferential Statistical Methods: Analysis of Voting and Elect...Toni Menninger
A presentation highlighting the relevance of statistical methods for the analysis and forecast of elections:
* Voter Turnout by Income, Age, and Gender, with detailed graphs and explanations
* Polls and Election Forecasting, with explanation of the 95% confidence interval
* Representativeness and random sampling
* Aggregated election forecast models
President Trump’s approval rating remains statistically unchanged from last week, with 42% of all Americans approving of the job he is doing as president.
California Congressional District 22 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Str...Magellan Strategies
Magellan Strategies public releases of the results of a 687n autodial and cell phone survey of likely 2014 general election voters in California Congressional District 22 regarding the opinion of Immigration reform. Conducted on October 7th - 8th, 2013.
President Trump’s approval rating remains at 37% this week. Trump continues to receive strong support from his Republican base (76%), but very little support from Democrats (11%). Trump’s approval ratings on individual policies remains consistent, with the highest ratings received on the US economy (46%), employment and jobs (48%), and dealing with ISIS/ISIL (46%).
More broadly, healthcare remains the top priority among Americans (22%), with concern especially high among Democrats (28%). Republicans also say healthcare is their top issue (19%), although immigration (16%) has recently increased in importance among this group, up 5 points from last week (in contrast, immigration is seen as less critical among Democrats (6%) and Independents (5%)).
Americans continue to give Congress lackluster approval ratings with only 21% approving of the job Congress is doing. When asked about their representative specifically, Americans are more likely to approve of their individual work (44%). Republicans are the most satisfied with their Congressperson at 58%, but are not impressed with the Congress’ work as a whole (23%).
The past week has seen a notable reshuffle in the issues of most concern to Americans, with concerns about conflict and the economy climbing as healthcare wanes. Specifically, healthcare has dropped six percentage points to 16% of Americans naming it as the “most important problem facing the US today”. Concern about war and foreign conflicts (likely related to recent rhetoric regarding North Korea) both jumped six percentage points this week, tying with the economy – all at 11%.
The last seven days have also seen a marked decline in the proportion of Americans who believe the US is heading in the right direction, down to 24% (3 points down), with three fifths (60%) saying we’re on the wrong track. A significant majority of Independents now believe the US is on the wrong track, up 11 percentage points from last week. Over half of Republicans (52%) still believe we are heading in the right direction, down four percentage points since last week.
President Trump’s approval has dropped slightly and is now at 35% - although it remains significantly higher than Congress’ approval rating of 21%.
Magellan Strategies Montana US Senate Survey Release April 10, 2014Magellan Strategies
Magellan Strategies survey of 2,490 likely Montana general election voters. The survey includes a voter mood question, US Senate ballot test of Steve Daines, John Walsh, and Roger Roots, and a Congressional generic ballot test.
Descriptive and Inferential Statistical Methods: Analysis of Voting and Elect...Toni Menninger
A presentation highlighting the relevance of statistical methods for the analysis and forecast of elections:
* Voter Turnout by Income, Age, and Gender, with detailed graphs and explanations
* Polls and Election Forecasting, with explanation of the 95% confidence interval
* Representativeness and random sampling
* Aggregated election forecast models
ОПРОС: КТО ПОБЕДИТ ТРАМПА НА СЛЕДУЮЩИХ ВЫБОРАХmResearcher
Если президент США Дональд Трамп будет баллотироваться на второй президентский срок, он столкнется с серьезной конкуренцией со стороны американских политиков и лидеров общественного мнения
Trump vs Clinton - Polling Opinions: How the polls were wrong and how to fix...chrisbrock54
The polls in the 2016 election were wrong. Why? Did they underestimate Trump? Over value Hillary Clinton's lead? Not use modern technology? Not accept the facts in front of them? This presentation is designed to help pollsters in future elections to better their predictive powers. We cover social media, search engines, main stream media sources, Wikileaks in more in our investigation.
National Mining Association Kentucky EPA Regulation Survey Summary 091014Magellan Strategies
Survey of likely 2014 Kentucky general election voters, measuring voter opinion of the Obama Administration's proposed emission regulation and the United States Senate election between Mitch McConnell and Alison Lundergan Grimes.
Lab Write-Up Rubric Lab Write-Ups are worth 10 points tota.docxsmile790243
Lab Write-Up Rubric
Lab Write-Ups are worth 10 points total and are due at the beginning of lab each week.
Content (7 points)
Key issues and questions from the prompt are identified and answered
Incorporates a critical level of thinking
Reflects on course materials (i.e. readings, lectures, lab, etc.) and utilizes factually correct
information in order to provide a quality response
Grammar (2 points)
Proper sentence structure is used and sentences make sense/flow together
Provides clear, concise comments formatted in an easy to read style
Free of grammatical or spelling errors
Format (1 point)
Must be typed!
Minimum of 1 page in length, but does not exceed 3 pages
1 inch margins, 12 point font, double spaced
Only student name appears at the top
NOVEMBER 9, 2016
Why 2016 election polls missed their mark
BY ANDREW MERCER, CLAUDIA DEANE AND KYLEY MCGEENEY30 COMMENTS
The results of Tuesday’s presidential election came as a surprise to nearly everyone who
had been following the national and state election polling, which consistently projected
Hillary Clinton as defeating Donald Trump. Relying largely on opinion polls, election
forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%,
and pegged her as the heavy favorite to win a number of states such as Pennsylvania
and Wisconsin that in the end were taken by Trump.
How could the polls have been so wrong about the state of the election?
There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the
disconnect, but there is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated
Trump’s level of support. With few exceptions, the final round of public polling showed
Clinton with a lead of 1 to 7 percentage points in the national popular vote. State-level
polling was more variable, but there were few instances where polls overstated Trump’s
support.
The fact that so many forecasts were off-target was particularly notable given the
increasingly wide variety of methodologies being tested and reported via the
mainstream media and other channels. The traditional telephone polls of recent decades
are now joined by increasing numbers of high profile, online probability and
nonprobability sample surveys, as well as prediction markets, all of which showed
similar errors.
Pollsters don’t have a clear diagnosis yet for the misfires, and it will likely be some time
before we know for sure what happened. There are, however, several possible
explanations for the misstep that many in the polling community will be talking about in
upcoming weeks.
One likely culprit is what pollsters refer to as nonresponse bias. This occurs when certain
kinds of people systematically do not respond to surveys despite equal opportunity
outreach to all parts of the electorate. We know that some groups – including the less
educated voters who were a key demographic f ...
Rural Lifestylers and the Influence of Online ReviewsPaulsen
Online chatter does influence our purchase decisions. Just how influential are the opinions of strangers? What about experts? How about our peers? Paulsen Marketing surveyed 500 acreage owners to weigh the importance of online testimonials and reviews.
Colorado Unaffiliated Women Voter Post Election Survey Summary 121714Magellan Strategies
This document is a summary of a post-election landline and cell phone survey of 500 unaffiliated women voters in Colorado that voted in the 2014 general election. The interviews were conducted on November 17th and 18th, and the survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This group of women voters contributed 14% of the total vote, or 286,283 votes of the 2,080,071 total votes cast in the 2014 election.
The survey used Magellan Strategies Colorado segmentation data to draw the sample, which only surveyed female unaffiliated voters that voted in the 2014 general election. The three unaffiliated segments used were Lean Republican Unaffiliated, True Middle and Lean Democrat Unaffiliated. Among all unaffiliated women who voted in the 2014 general election, 17% were Lean Republican Unaffiliated, 48% were True Middle and 35% were Lean Democrat Unaffiliated.
Most observers of Colorado politics would confirm that unaffiliated women voters are an important voting block that can decide most elections in the Centennial state. These women voters are less partisan and more likely to consider candidates of both parties. This survey attempts to understand how these women viewed: the 2014 candidates for the United States Senate and Governor, the dominance of women’s issues, the Republican and Democrat parties, and their support for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
This memorandum is a summary of an automated survey of 869 likely voters in Maine. The survey was fielded October 23rd and 24th and has a margin of error of +/- 3.32% at the 95% confidence level.
The survey finds Republican Governor Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud in a statistical tie with one week to go before Election Day. Among all voters, Paul LePage has 42.3% support; Mike Michaud has 41.6%, and independent candidate Eliot Cutler has 13.2% support. Among all male voters Paul LePage leads Mike Michaud by 3 points, 43% to 40% respectively, and among all female voters Mike Michaud leads by 1 point, 43% to 42% respectively. Independent Eliot Cutler’s strongest base of support is among married men and independent voters, with 16%.
The image ratings of both Paul LePage and Mike Michaud are very similar. Among all voters, 47% have a favorable opinion of Mike Michaud and 46% have an unfavorable opinion of him. For Paul LePage 48% of voters have a favorable opinion of him and 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him. The following table shows the ballot test by voter subgroup.
Sutherland Institute Utah Medicare Expansion Survey Summary 091514Magellan Strategies
The survey finds that Utah registered voters are reluctant to favor any of the four Medicaid expansion proposals currently being considered by Governor Herbert and the state legislature. Of the four Medicaid expansion proposals that were tested in the survey, no individual proposal received 50% support among respondents. After explaining the details of each proposal in a stand-alone question format, on average 30% of respondents were unsure if they favored or opposed the proposals. Of the four proposals, the “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” proposal had the highest percentage of voters favoring a proposal with 45% and the lowest percentage opposing a proposal at 26%.
The Healthy Utah Proposal was favored by 32% of respondents, opposed by 40% of respondents, and 28% were unsure or did not have an opinion of the proposal. The Traditional Medicaid Expansion and Partial Medicaid Expansion proposals were the least favored proposals by voters, with only 21% and 19% favoring them respectively. A near majority of 49% and 48% of voters oppose the Traditional and Partial Medicaid Expansion proposals, respectively.
After respondents were informed about the details of each proposal and then asked to choose which one they believed was the best proposal that should be implemented, a plurality of 31% chose the “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” proposal. Seventeen percent chose the Healthy Utah Proposal, 15% chose the Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal, and 10% chose the Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal. One in five respondents, or 20%, were unsure or did not know which proposal was the best and should be implemented, and 7% did not like any of the proposals.
Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results today of an automated survey of 1,618 likely New Hampshire voters. The survey was conducted July 16-17. The margin of error for a survey of this size is 2.43%. The survey was commissioned by Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire. Aided by a dismal political environment, Scott Brown is within 5 points of defeating Jeanne Shaheen.
Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results today of an automated survey of 1,618 likely New Hampshire voters. The survey was conducted July 16-17. The margin of error for a survey of this size is 2.43%. The survey was commissioned by Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire. Aided by a dismal political environment, Scott Brown is within 5 points of defeating Jeanne Shaheen.
Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results today of an automated survey of 1,618 likely New Hampshire voters. The survey was conducted July 16-17. The margin of error for a survey of this size is 2.43%. The survey was commissioned by Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire. Aided by a dismal political environment, Scott Brown is within 5 points of defeating Jeanne Shaheen.
Survey of likely 2014 likely voters in Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana and North Carolina measuring opinion of the proposed EPA carbon emissions regulations.
03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
Here is Gabe Whitley's response to my defamation lawsuit for him calling me a rapist and perjurer in court documents.
You have to read it to believe it, but after you read it, you won't believe it. And I included eight examples of defamatory statements/
Magellan Strategies 2012 Internal Survey Research Summary Memorandum 120612
1. December 6, 2012
MEMORANDUM
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, CEO
MAGELLAN STRATEGIES
RE: 2012 POST-ELECTION INTERNAL SURVEY ANALYSIS
This memorandum is a review of Magellan Strategies' internal surveys from the
2012 election cycle. This document shares insights to adjustments that we made
during the cycle to improve the accuracy of our surveys. The intent of this
memorandum is to provide political professionals and observers with information
about how Magellan Strategies conducted its survey research in the 2012
Presidential election.
THE CHALLENGES OF SURVEY RESEARCH IN 2012
Measuring voter opinion and candidate support was a challenge for many
researchers in the 2012 election cycle because younger and minority voters made
up a larger than expected portion of the overall voting population. To get it right,
researchers had to make correct assumptions about what the final voter turnout
demographics would be, and make sure their phone sample coverage of the final
voting population was sufficient. If one or both of these assumptions is incorrect,
then the survey will be inaccurate.
To understand what we are talking about when discussing demographics, we are
referring to the percentage of a survey's total interviews broken out by gender, age
or age group, race and geographic region (county, media market, etc.). Another
important demographic that is used by some researchers, but not all, is party
identification.
SURVEY SAMPLE COVERAGE CHALLENGES
Survey sample "coverage" refers to the percentage of the voting population that can
be reached by a phone call. For the survey to be accurate, minimum "coverage"
sample requirements need be met to ensure enough voters have an opportunity to
participate in the survey. For example, if I am conducting a survey in a legislative
district that contains 100,000 voters, I want to be sure the sample used sufficiently
covers the total population. If the sample covers 85% of the population, that
would be considered acceptable to most researchers.
2. Page 2 of 9
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
But if the 15% of the voting population that I am unable to contact by phone is
predominantly younger or minority voters and those subgroups are contributing
30% to the overall vote, then the survey will be inaccurate.
The decline of the household or "landline" telephone created additional challenges
for researchers in the 2012 election cycle. To maintain a sufficient level of sample
coverage, most researchers will add cell phone sample. A difficult decision that a
researcher needs to make if they are using landline and cell phone sample is what
the percentage each set of sample should be.
MAGELLAN STRATEGIES SURVEY RESEARCH LESSONS LEARNED
During the 2012 election cycle, Magellan Strategies regularly fielded surveys in all
Presidential battleground states starting in early May. All of our surveys at the start
of the cycle were fielded using an automated voice recorded method of
interviewing. Automated surveys have the benefit of a lower cost and a larger
number of interviews, and political professionals like the ability to “drill down”
among voter subgroups with more confidence than a survey with fewer interviews.
In early June we had concerns that the automated interviewing approach was not
accurately measuring minority and younger voter populations. This made us
skeptical of the results, so we began including cell phone and live landline
interviews of minority voters in almost all of our surveys.
MAGELLAN STRATEGIES APPROACH TO SURVEY DEMOGRAPHICS FOR 2012
The 2008 Presidential election produced a much larger than expected voter turnout
among younger voters, aged 18 to 34 in states across the country. Heading into the
2012 Presidential election, Magellan Strategies, like many other political
researchers believed it was unlikely that younger voters aged 18 to 34 would
turnout in the same percentages as they did in the 2008 election. However, we
believed these younger voters would vote in higher numbers than they did in the
2004 election. Turnout demographics from the 2010 election among younger
voters were higher than they were in the 2006 election. Taking this into account,
we set our 2012 turnout demographics closer to 2008 than 2004.
3. Page 3 of 9
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
MAGELLAN STRATEGIES SURVEY RESULTS BY OBAMA WIN MARGIN
Two weeks before the 2012 election, we fielded surveys in the battleground states
that merged automated voice recorded, cell phone, and live landline interviews of
likely voters. In the final week before the election, we fielded only automated
voice recorded surveys without any cell phone or landline live interviews. The
following tables show how well both sets of surveys performed against the actual
results. It should be noted the Presidential ballot test for each survey included the
qualified third party candidates in each state. To measure the accuracy of the
surveys, the following two tables show the actual vote percentage "Obama final
win margin" and the survey "Magellan Obama win margin.”
Oct. 23rd
- 24th
ALC* Survey Obama Win Margin Comparison
State
Obama
Actual
Final %
Romney
Actual
Final %
Obama
Final Win
Margin %
Magellan ALC*
Survey Obama
Win Margin %
Obama Final Win
Margin - Magellan
Obama Win
Margin Difference
Florida 50.0% 49.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1%
Pennsylvania 52.1% 46.7% 5.4% 4.9% 0.5%
Colorado 51.5% 46.1% 5.4% 4.5% 0.9%
Michigan 54.2% 44.7% 9.5% 10.8% 1.3%
Wisconsin 52.8% 45.9% 6.9% 4.3% 2.6%
Ohio 50.1% 48.1% 2.0% 4.8% 2.8%
Nevada 52.3% 45.6% 6.7% 3.6% 3.1%
Virginia 51.1% 47.2% 3.9% 0.8% 3.1%
North Carolina 48.3% 50.3% -2.0% 1.9% 3.9%
New Hampshire 52.0% 46.4% 5.6% 1.9% 3.7%
Iowa 51.9% 46.1% 5.8% -0.1% 5.9%
*ALC refers to the survey interview method that included automated voice recorded, live landline,
and live cell phone interviews.
Oct. 31st
- Nov. 1st
Automated Only Survey Obama Win Margin Comparison
State
Obama
Final %
Romney
Final %
Obama
Final Win
Margin
Magellan Auto
Survey Obama
Win Margin
Obama Final Win
Margin Magellan
Obama Win
Margin Difference
Colorado 51.5% 46.1% 5.4% 5.6% 0.2%
Ohio 50.1% 48.1% 2.0% 1.3% 0.7%
North Carolina 48.3% 50.3% -2.0% -3.2% 1.2%
New Hampshire 52.0% 46.4% 5.6% 3.5% 2.1%
Florida 50.0% 49.1% 0.9% -1.3% 2.2%
Iowa 51.9% 46.1% 5.8% 3.1% 2.7%
Nevada 52.3% 45.6% 6.7% 2.4% 4.3%
Wisconsin 52.8% 45.9% 6.9% 0.5% 6.4%
Virginia 51.1% 47.2% 3.9% -3.0% 6.9%
4. Page 4 of 9
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
SURVEY ACCURACY MEASURING OBAMA AND ROMNEY SUPPORT
The next set of tables looks at how well each survey measured support for Barack
Obama and Mitt Romney. As the tables indicate, the surveys were more accurate
in measuring Mitt Romney's support than Barack Obama's. We believe the “under
measurement” of Barack Obama’s support is due to the challenges of getting
younger and minority voters to participate in a survey. It is also clear surveys that
included cell phone and landline interviews of minority voters did a better job than
just automated interviews alone. We believe measuring Mitt Romney’s strength
was less challenging the measuring Barack Obama’s because Romney supporters
were older and less racially diverse.
Magellan Strategies Survey Obama Support Comparison Table
State
Obama
Final %
Magellan
10/23 ALC*
Survey
Obama %
Magellan
10/23 ALC
Survey
Difference
Magellan
10/31 Auto
Survey
Obama %
Magellan
10/31 Auto
Survey
Difference
Ohio 50.1% 50.1% 0.0% 48.6% 1.5%
North Carolina 48.3% 48.5% 0.2% 46.9% 1.4%
Michigan 54.2% 53.3% 0.9% N/A** N/A**
Florida 50.0% 47.8% 2.2% 47.7% 2.3%
Pennsylvania 52.1% 49.9% 2.2% N/A** N/A**
Colorado 51.5% 48.4% 3.1% 51.1% 0.4%
New Hampshire 52.0% 48.9% 3.1% 50.2% 1.8%
Wisconsin 52.8% 49.7% 3.1% 48.9% 3.9%
Nevada 52.3% 49.1% 3.2% 47.4% 4.9%
Virginia 51.1% 47.9% 3.2% 46.4% 4.7%
Iowa 51.9% 46.5% 5.4% 49.4% 2.5%
*ALC refers to the survey interview method that included automated voice recorded, live landline,
and live cell phone interviews. **“N/A” indicates a survey was not fielded in the final week prior to
the election. We did not think Michigan was competitive, and for Pennsylvania we were concerned
homes without power from Sandy would significantly impact survey response rates.
Magellan Strategies Survey Romney Support Comparison Table
State
Romney
Final %
Magellan
10/23 ALC
Survey
Romney %
Magellan
10/23 ALC
Survey
Difference
Magellan
10/31 Auto
Survey
Romney %
Magellan
10/31 Auto
Survey
Difference
Nevada 45.6% 45.5% 0.1% 45.0% 0.6%
Virginia 47.2% 47.1% 0.1% 51.0% 3.8%
Iowa 46.1% 46.6% 0.5% 46.3% 0.2%
Wisconsin 45.9% 45.4% 0.5% 48.4% 2.5%
New Hampshire 46.4% 47.0% 0.6% 46.7% 0.3%
Pennsylvania 46.7% 45.0% 1.7% N/A N/A
Florida 49.1% 47.0% 2.1% 49.0% 0.1%
Colorado 46.1% 43.9% 2.2% 45.5% 0.6%
Michigan 44.7% 42.5% 2.2% N/A N/A
Ohio 48.1% 45.3% 2.8% 47.3% 0.8%
North Carolina 50.3% 46.6% 3.7% 50.1% 0.2%
5. Page 5 of 9
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
MAGELLAN SURVEY EXIT POLL COMPARISON
The survey tables that follow compare the Magellan survey results to the 2012 exit
polling data by voter subgroup. To understand how to read the data in the tables,
the exit polling results for each candidate are in the "Exit" row and the Magellan
survey candidate results are in the "Mag" row. The "Difference" row indicates the
difference between the exit polling results and the Magellan survey results for the
voter subgroup. The comparison of the two different survey interview methods
shows the challenges of an automated survey to accurately measure minority voter
opinion.
Colorado Oct. 23rd - 24th Automated, Landline and Cellphone Survey
Total*^ Men Wom
White
Wom Ind Hisp 65+
Difference 3.1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 11% 9%
Obama (Exit Poll) 51.5% 51% 51% 46% 45% 75% 42%
Obama (Mag) 48.4% 48% 49% 45% 44% 64% 51%
Difference 2.2% 6% 1% 1% 11% 7% 10%
Romney (Exit Poll) 46.1% 46% 48% 53% 49% 23% 57%
Romney (Mag) 43.9% 40% 47% 52% 38% 30% 47%
*The Total (Exit) column shows the final candidate vote percentage as reported on November 29th.
^ The actual Obama win margin was 5.4%, the survey Obama win margin was 4.5% with 3.6% of
respondents undecided.
The Magellan survey interviewed 746n likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.58%.
The exit polling data interviewed 1,029 voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.05%.
Colorado Oct. 31st - Nov. 1st Automated Only Survey vs. Exit Polls
Total*^ Men Wom
White
Wom Ind Hisp 65+
Difference 0.4% 4% 4% 10% 10% 24% 8%
Obama (Exit) 51.5% 51% 51% 46% 45% 74% 42%
Obama (Mag) 51.1% 47% 55% 56% 55% 52% 50%
Difference 0.6% 2% 4% 9% 13% 19% 8%
Romney (Exit) 46.1% 46% 48% 53% 49% 23% 57%
Romney (Mag) 45.5% 48% 44% 44% 36% 42% 49%
*The Total (Exit) column shows the final candidate vote percentages as reported on November 29th.
^ The actual Obama win margin was 5.4%, the survey Obama win margin was 5.6%, with 0.6% of
respondents undecided.
The Magellan survey interviewed 1,033n likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.05%.
The exit polling data interviewed 1,029 voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.05%.
6. Page 6 of 9
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
Florida Oct. 23rd - 24th Automated, Landline and Cellphone Survey
Total*^ Men Wom
White
Wom Ind Hisp Black 65+
Difference 2.2% 0% 3% 0% 0% 6% 9% 3%
Obama (Exit) 50.0% 46% 53% 41% 50% 60% 95% 41%
Obama (Mag) 47.8% 46% 50% 41% 50% 54% 86% 38%
Difference 2.1% 4% 0% 2% 9% 0% 5% 1%
Romney (Exit) 49.1% 52% 46% 58% 47% 39% 5% 58%
Romney (Mag) 47.0% 48% 46% 56% 38% 39% 10% 57%
*The Total (Exit) column shows the final candidate vote percentage as reported on November 29th.
^ The actual Obama win margin was 0.9%, the survey Obama win margin was 0.8% with 3.8% of
respondents undecided.
The Magellan survey interviewed 774n likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.52%.
The exit polling data interviewed 4,225 voters, for a margin of error of +/- 1.51%.
Florida Oct. 31st - Nov. 1st Automated Only Survey vs. Exit Polls
Total*^ Men Wom
White
Wom Ind Hisp Black 65+
Difference 2.3% 2% 5% 3% 6% 15% 25% 6%
Obama (Exit) 50.0% 46% 53% 41% 50% 60% 95% 41%
Obama (Mag) 47.7% 48% 48% 44% 44% 45% 70% 47%
Difference 0.1% 1% 2% 3% 6% 13% 20% 6%
Romney (Exit) 49.1% 52% 46% 58% 47% 39% 5% 58%
Romney (Mag) 49.0% 51% 48% 55% 41% 52% 25% 52%
*The Total (Exit) column shows the final candidate vote percentage as reported on November 29th.
^ The actual Obama win margin was 0.9%, the survey Romney win margin was 1.3% with 0.4% of
respondents undecided.
The Magellan survey interviewed 888n likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.29%.
The exit polling data interviewed 4,225 voters, for a margin of error of +/- 1.51%.
The Florida October 24th
survey that included cellphone interviews and landline
interviews of African American and Hispanic voters predicted the overall outcome
very well with a win margin of 0.1%, but the final automated survey missed the
mark, predicting a close Romney win. We think this is a good example of how an
automated interview approach can have coverage and penetration problems
among younger and minority voters, thereby under-measuring Democrat candidate
strength.
7. Page 7 of 9
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
Ohio Oct 24th - 25th Automated, Landline and Cellphone Survey vs. Exit Polls
Total*^ Men Wom
White
Wom Ind Black 65+
Difference 0% 5% 4% 0% 1% 11% 4%
Obama (Exit) 50.1% 45% 55% 46% 43% 96% 44%
Obama (Mag) 50.1% 50% 51% 46% 44% 85% 48%
Difference 2.8% 6% 1% 2% 6% 8% 8%
Romney (Exit) 48.1% 52% 44% 53% 53% 4% 55%
Romney (Mag) 45.3% 46% 45% 51% 47% 12% 47%
*The Total (Exit) column shows the final candidate vote percentage as reported on November 29th.
^ The actual Obama win margin was 2.0%, the survey Obama win margin was 1.6% with 4.4% of
respondents undecided.
The Magellan survey interviewed 713n likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.67%.
The exit polling data interviewed 3,992 voters, for a margin of error of +/- 1.55%.
Ohio Oct. 31st – Nov. 1st Automated Only Survey vs. Exit Polls
Total*^ Men Wom
White
Wom Ind Black 65+
Difference 1.5% 2% 5% 3% 7% 28% 5%
Obama (Exit) 50.1% 45% 55% 46% 43% 96% 44%
Obama (Mag) 48.6% 47% 50% 49% 36% 68% 49%
Difference 0.8% 3% 2% 5% 3% 23% 7%
Romney (Exit) 48.1% 52% 44% 53% 53% 4% 55%
Romney (Mag) 47.3% 49% 46% 48% 56% 27% 48%
*The Total (Exit) column shows the final candidate vote percentage as reported on November 29th.
^ The actual Obama win margin was 2.0%, the survey Obama win margin was 2.5% with 4.5% of
respondents undecided.
The Magellan survey interviewed 1,002n likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.10%.
The exit polling data interviewed 3,992 voters, for a margin of error of +/- 1.55%.
Both Ohio surveys predicted the final outcome fairly well, with both being within
the margin of error. As in other surveys with larger minority populations, you can
see how the automated interview approach struggles to get a solid, accurate
measurement of African American voter opinion.
8. Page 8 of 9
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
Nevada Oct. 23rd - 24th Automated, Landline and Cellphone Survey
Total*^ Men Wom
White
Wom Ind 65+ Hisp Black
Difference 3.2% 5% 3% 2% 0% 3% 7% 33%
Obama (Exit) 52.3% 48% 57% 46% 43% 44% 71% 92%
Obama (Mag) 49.1% 43% 54% 48% 43% 47% 64% 59%
Difference 0.1% 1% 1% 3% 8% 6% 1% 25%
Romney (Exit) 45.6% 49% 41% 52% 50% 55% 24% 8%
Romney (Mag) 45.5% 50% 42% 49% 42% 49% 25% 33%
*The Total (Exit) column shows the final candidate vote percentage as reported on November 29th.
^ The actual Obama win margin was 6.7%, the survey Obama win margin was 3.6% with 2.8% of
respondents undecided.
The Magellan survey interviewed 754n likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.57%.
The exit polling data interviewed 4,388 voters, for a margin of error of +/- 1.63%.
Nevada Oct. 31st - Nov. 1st Automated Only Survey vs. Exit Polls
Total*^ Men Wom
White
Wom Ind 65+ Hisp Black
Difference 4.9% 5% 6% 2% 3% 7% 12% 17%
Obama (Exit) 52.3% 48% 57% 46% 43% 44% 71% 92%
Obama (Mag) 47.4% 43% 51% 44% 40% 51% 59% 75%
Difference 0.6% 4% 2% 1% 2% 7% 1% 5%
Romney (Exit) 45.6% 49% 41% 52% 50% 55% 24% 8%
Romney (Mag) 45.0% 53% 39% 53% 40% 48% 25% 13%
*The Total (Exit) column shows the final candidate vote percentage as reported on November 29th.
^ The actual Obama win margin was 6.7%, the survey Obama win margin was 2.4% with 0.7% of
respondents undecided.
The Magellan survey interviewed 844n likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.37%.
The exit polling data interviewed 4,388 voters, for a margin of error of +/- 1.63%.
9. Page 9 of 9
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585
North Carolina Oct. 22nd - 23rd Automated, Landline and Cellphone Survey
Total*^ Men Wom
White
Wom Ind 65+ Black
Difference 3.7% 2% 10% 14% 6% 11% 2%
Romney (Exit) 50.3% 54% 49% 67% 57% 64% 4%
Romney (Mag) 46.6% 56% 39% 53% 51% 53% 6%
Difference 0.2% 6% 5% 9% 5% 5% 5%
Obama (Exit) 48.3% 45% 51% 33% 42% 35% 96%
Obama (Mag) 48.5% 39% 56% 42% 37% 40% 91%
*The Total (Exit) column shows the final candidate vote percentage as reported on November 29th.
^ The actual Romney win margin was 2.0%, the survey Obama win margin was 1.9% with 4.9% of
respondents undecided.
The Magellan survey interviewed 769n likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.53%.
The exit polling data interviewed 4,341 voters, for a margin of error of +/- 1.49%.
North Carolina Oct. 31st - Nov. 1st Automated Only Survey vs. Exit Polls
Total*^ Men Wom
White
Wom Ind 65+ Black
Difference 0.2% 0% 2% 5% 3% 8% 8%
Romney (Exit) 50.3% 54% 49% 67% 57% 64% 4%
Romney (Mag) 50.1% 54% 47% 62% 54% 56% 12%
Difference 1.4% 2% 1% 4% 3% 6% 11%
Obama (Exit) 48.3% 45% 51% 33% 42% 35% 96%
Obama (Mag) 46.9% 43% 50% 37% 39% 41% 85%
*The Total (Exit) column shows the final candidate vote percentage as reported on November 29th.
^ The actual Romney win margin was 2.0%, the survey Romney win margin was 3.2% with 1.1% of
respondents undecided.
The Magellan survey interviewed 1,006n likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.09%.
The exit polling data interviewed 4,341 voters, for a margin of error of +/- 1.49%.
CONCLUSION
We believe the 2012 election cycle was challenging for survey researchers because
of assumptions made that it was unlikely that younger voters would turnout in the
same percentages as they did in the 2008 election cycle. We also believe that the
difficulty of getting younger voters on the phone, even with significant cell phone
sample, contributed to lower sample coverage rates. We see this in our own
surveys that are detailed in this memorandum.
CONTACT MAGELLAN STRATEGIES
Any questions regarding this memorandum should be directed to David Flaherty at
303-861-8585 or by email at Dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com. This
memorandum can be downloaded on the front page of the Magellan Strategies
website at www.MagellanStrategies.com.