1. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
1
MAIL-IN BALLOT: There are also a number of other issues and proposals currently
being discussed in Hawaii. The first is a proposal to conduct Hawaii’s elections by
having voters mail in their ballots. Oregon and Washington currently conduct their
elections by mail. How would you feel about switching to voting by mail in Hawaii --
would you support or oppose it, or does it not matter to you much either way?
Support 58%
Oppose 28%
Doesn't matter 10%
Not sure 5%
Total 100%
LOTTERY: Another proposal would be to have lotteries in Hawaii, either by creating a
state-wide lottery, joining multi-state lotteries like Powerball, or both. Would you support
or oppose having lotteries in Hawaii, or does it not matter to you much either way?
Support 58%
Oppose 31%
Doesn't matter 5%
Not sure 6%
Total 100%
RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA: Medical marijuana was legalized in Hawaii in the year
2000. In other states, including Colorado and Washington, they have gone a step
further, legalizing marijuana not just for medical use, but also for recreational use. Do
you think Hawaii should do the same, and legalize recreational marijuana use or not, or
does it not matter to you much either way?
Yes 41%
No 50%
Doesn't matter 5%
Not sure 5%
Total 100%
2. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
2
TERM LIMITS: Another proposal would be to have term limits for members of the state
legislature in Hawaii. Currently, county officials, as well as Hawaii's governor and
lieutenant governor have term limits, but state legislators do not. What do you think --
would you support or oppose term limits for members of the Hawaii state legislature, or
does it not matter to you much either way?
Support 70%
Oppose 14%
Doesn't matter 8%
Not sure 8%
Total 100%
INITIATIVES, REFERENDUMS, AND RECALLS: Another issue is a system of citizen
initiatives, referendums, and recalls. These allow residents to make changes to laws
and government through direct vote, rather than having to go through the legislature.
Currently, about half the states in the U.S. have citizens' initiatives, referendums, or
recalls that allow their residents to make direct changes. What do you think – should
Hawaii enact a system of citizen's initiatives, referendums, and recalls or not, or does it
not matter to you much either way?
Support 55%
Oppose 21%
Doesn't matter 10%
Not sure 14%
Total 100%
3. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
3
CROSSTABS—Mail-In Ballot
Male Female
Support 57% 59%
Oppose 32% 25%
Does not
matter 8% 11%
Unsure 3% 6%
Total 100% 100%
Under 50
50 or
Older
Support 49% 62%
Oppose 42% 23%
Does not
matter 6% 10%
Unsure 3% 5%
Total 100% 100%
Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed
Support 57% 64% 48% 58% 80% 52% 50%
Oppose 30% 24% 35% 33% 13% 37% 33%
Does not
matter 8% 9% 11% 5% 5% 7% 12%
Unsure 5% 3% 6% 5% 3% 4% 5%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
4. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
4
Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative
Support 66% 59% 47%
Oppose 24% 26% 43%
Does not
matter 7% 10% 7%
Unsure 4% 5% 3%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Democrat Republican Independent
Support 64% 40% 58%
Oppose 23% 48% 29%
Does not
matter 10% 7% 7%
Unsure 3% 4% 7%
Total 100% 100% 100%
College
Degree
No
college
Degree
Support 58% 60%
Oppose 30% 28%
Does not
matter 8% 10%
Unsure 4% 3%
Total 100% 100%
5. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
5
Less than
$50,000
$50,000 -
$100,000
More
than
$100,000
Support 59% 60% 59%
Oppose 29% 29% 30%
Does not
matter 10% 9% 6%
Unsure 3% 2% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai
Support 56% 62% 54% 63% 58%
Oppose 30% 23% 29% 30% 21%
Does not
matter 10% 10% 12% 2% 14%
Unsure 4% 5% 5% 6% 7%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
6. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
6
CROSSTABS—Lottery
Male Female
Support 66% 52%
Oppose 27% 35%
Does not
matter 4% 6%
Unsure 4% 7%
Total 100% 100%
Under 50
50 or
Older
Support 64% 56%
Oppose 23% 35%
Does not
matter 7% 4%
Unsure 6% 5%
Total 100% 100%
Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed
Support 56% 53% 60% 74% 60% 75% 57%
Oppose 32% 39% 28% 20% 33% 11% 31%
Does not
matter 6% 4% 6% 1% 0% 11% 7%
Unsure 7% 5% 6% 6% 8% 4% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
7. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
7
Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative
Support 56% 57% 62%
Oppose 34% 29% 34%
Does not
matter 4% 8% 2%
Unsure 7% 6% 3%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Democrat Republican Independent
Support 53% 67% 63%
Oppose 34% 29% 27%
Does not
matter 8% 2% 2%
Unsure 5% 3% 8%
Total 100% 100% 100%
College
Degree
No
college
Degree
Support 59% 58%
Oppose 32% 31%
Does not
matter 4% 4%
Unsure 5% 7%
Total 100% 100%
8. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
8
Less than
$50,000
$50,000 -
$100,000
More
than
$100,000
Support 58% 60% 67%
Oppose 30% 31% 25%
Does not
matter 5% 5% 3%
Unsure 7% 4% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai
Support 61% 63% 47% 52% 58%
Oppose 29% 31% 39% 35% 30%
Does not
matter 5% 1% 9% 5% 7%
Unsure 6% 5% 4% 8% 5%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
9. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
9
CROSSTABS—Recreational Marijuana
Male Female
Yes 49% 34%
No 46% 54%
Does not
matter 2% 7%
Unsure 4% 6%
Total 100% 100%
Under 50
50 or
Older
Yes 63% 33%
No 29% 57%
Does not
matter 5% 4%
Unsure 3% 6%
Total 100% 100%
Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed
Yes 51% 31% 27% 43% 58% 32% 43%
No 41% 62% 67% 44% 35% 50% 43%
Does not
matter 7% 2% 3% 1% 0% 18% 7%
Unsure 2% 5% 4% 12% 8% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
10. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
10
Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative
Yes 60% 38% 26%
No 31% 53% 68%
Does not
matter 3% 5% 3%
Unsure 6% 3% 3%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Democrat Republican Independent
Yes 44% 30% 45%
No 45% 65% 49%
Does not
matter 6% 3% 3%
Unsure 5% 3% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100%
College
Degree
No
college
Degree
Yes 46% 38%
No 46% 53%
Does not
matter 4% 4%
Unsure 5% 4%
Total 100% 100%
11. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
11
Less than
$50,000
$50,000 -
$100,000
More
than
$100,000
Yes 46% 46% 42%
No 46% 47% 48%
Does not
matter 4% 3% 6%
Unsure 4% 4% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai
Yes 37% 42% 50% 50% 30%
No 55% 51% 38% 42% 47%
Does not
matter 4% 4% 7% 4% 9%
Unsure 5% 4% 4% 5% 14%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
12. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
12
CROSSTABS—Term Limits
Male Female
Support 73% 68%
Oppose 17% 12%
Does not
matter 4% 10%
Unsure 6% 10%
Total 100% 100%
Under 50
50 or
Older
Support 81% 69%
Oppose 10% 15%
Does not
matter 1% 9%
Unsure 8% 8%
Total 100% 100%
Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed
Support 77% 59% 75% 77% 78% 78% 72%
Oppose 14% 24% 8% 11% 5% 4% 9%
Does not
matter 4% 12% 9% 6% 13% 4% 4%
Unsure 6% 4% 9% 7% 5% 15% 15%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
13. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
13
Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative
Support 71% 69% 86%
Oppose 19% 14% 9%
Does not
matter 4% 12% 3%
Unsure 6% 5% 3%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Democrat Republican Independent
Support 63% 84% 86%
Oppose 19% 6% 8%
Does not
matter 9% 5% 4%
Unsure 9% 5% 2%
Total 100% 100% 100%
College
Degree
No
college
Degree
Support 77% 68%
Oppose 14% 15%
Does not
matter 4% 10%
Unsure 5% 8%
Total 100% 100%
14. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
14
Less than
$50,000
$50,000 -
$100,000
More
than
$100,000
Support 76% 77% 77%
Oppose 11% 16% 14%
Does not
matter 9% 7% 4%
Unsure 4% 1% 5%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai
Support 69% 70% 71% 81% 55%
Oppose 14% 18% 14% 10% 7%
Does not
matter 8% 5% 8% 5% 19%
Unsure 9% 7% 7% 5% 19%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
15. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
15
CROSSTABS—Initiatives, Referendums, and Recalls
Male Female
Support 60% 52%
Oppose 25% 17%
Does not
matter 6% 13%
Unsure 10% 18%
Total 100% 100%
Under 50
50 or
Older
Support 63% 53%
Oppose 14% 23%
Does not
matter 9% 9%
Unsure 14% 14%
Total 100% 100%
Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed
Support 55% 54% 51% 60% 55% 48% 64%
Oppose 17% 29% 13% 17% 23% 26% 19%
Does not
matter 11% 7% 11% 6% 8% 7% 11%
Unsure 17% 9% 25% 17% 15% 19% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
16. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
16
Liberal/progressive Moderate Conservative
Support 64% 58% 55%
Oppose 19% 19% 26%
Does not
matter 7% 10% 6%
Unsure 11% 13% 13%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Democrat Republican Independent
Support 56% 58% 58%
Oppose 19% 22% 22%
Does not
matter 12% 8% 5%
Unsure 14% 12% 15%
Total 100% 100% 100%
College
Degree
No
college
Degree
Support 60% 57%
Oppose 21% 18%
Does not
matter 7% 11%
Unsure 12% 15%
Total 100% 100%
17. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
17
Less than
$50,000
$50,000 -
$100,000
More
than
$100,000
Support 64% 60% 63%
Oppose 14% 19% 23%
Does not
matter 9% 10% 4%
Unsure 13% 12% 11%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai
Support 55% 55% 53% 63% 51%
Oppose 22% 24% 18% 18% 16%
Does not
matter 10% 9% 12% 7% 11%
Unsure 14% 12% 18% 12% 23%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
18. Civil Beat Poll
Representative Sample:
Likely Voters Statewide (961, Margin of Error +/- 3.2 percentage points)
Fielded, October 8 – 12, 2018
18
About the Poll
Civil Beat surveyed a random sample of 961 likely General Election voters statewide.
Calls were made from October 8 – 12, 2018, using interactive voice response
technology (touch-tone polling). Cell phones were contacted by live call-agents who
obtained consent and then patched consenting participants through to the same
recorded survey as landline respondents. The sample consisted of 70% landlines and
30% cellphones.
Results were balanced for gender, age, ancestry/ethnicity/race, county and
Congressional District of residence, education, and likelihood of voting.
The margin of error +/- 3.2 percentage points. Other sources of error, such as imperfect
response rates and design effect (the effect of weighting results based on
demographics) are also common in public opinion research and may affect the results.
The adjusted margin of error, accounting for the design effect is +/- 4.3 percentage
points. The margin of error for any crosstabulated result is larger than the margin of
error of the corresponding topline result.
Some columns may sum to totals slightly higher or lower than 100% due to rounding.
The poll was conducted by Civil Beat working with Merriman River Group, a full-service
consulting organization specializing in opinion research, election management, and
communications.