Macroeconomic Analysis

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This document provides an overview of the US macroeconomy in 2016-2017. It includes breakdowns of GDP by sector and industry in 2016, components of GDP from 2013-2017, economic indicators from 2012-2016 including consumption, investment, exports, imports and debt levels, the economic calendar, and a forecast for real GDP growth, interest rates, inflation and unemployment from 2017-2019. Services contributed the largest share at 80.2% of GDP, followed by industry at 18.9% and agriculture at 0.9%. Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing represented the largest industry at $3,817.4 billion.

Economy & Finance

Macroeconomic Analysis (USA)
By
Deepak Dharmavaram
deepakdharmavaram@gmail.com
(National Institute of Securities Markets)
5-Nov-2017

GDP Break-down By Sector (%,2016)
80.20%
18.90%
0.90%
Services Industry Agriculture

GDP-By-Industry
159.9
264.6
288.1
420.4
562.9
749.3
784
886
1087.1
1098
1576
2175.2
2308.6
2391.6
3817.4
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
Mining
Utilities
Other services, except government
Transportation and warehousing
Arts, entertainment, recreation, and food services
Construction
Information
Retail Trade
Wholesale trade
Educational services, healthcare
Manufacturing
Proffessional and business services
Government
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing
Value added to the Gross Domestic Product of the United States of
America in 2016, by industry (in billions U.S. dollars)

GDP By Components
68.1 68.1 68.1 68.9 69.1
16.2 16.7 17.1 16.4 16.5
18.7 18.1 17.8 17.5 17.1
-2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 -2.7
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment
Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Net exports of goods and services
Real Gross Domestic Product ($Trillion)

Economy Data
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Consumption (annual variation in %) 1.5 1.5 2.9 3.2 2.7
Investment (annual variation in %) 9.8 5 5.5 4 0.7
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 3.4 3.5 4.3 0.1 0.4
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 2.2 1.1 4.4 4.6 1.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -6.7 -4.1 -2.8 -2.4 -3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 102 104 104 105 108
Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 5 3.6 4.3 2.6 3.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.1 1.3
Stock Market (annual variation in %) 7.3 26.5 7.5 -2.2 13.4

Economic Indicators
Leading Indicators
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM new order index
Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excl. aircraft
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Avg. consumer expectations for business and economic conditions
Coincident Indicators
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Personal income less transfer payments
Industrial production
Manufacturing and trade sales
Lagging Indicators
Average duration of unemployment
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Average prime rate
Commercial and industrial loans
Consumer installment credit to personal income ratio
Consumer price index for services

Economic Calendar
Event Impact
Fed Interest Rate Decision
ISMManufacturingPMI
Crude Oil Inventories
CBConsumerConfidence (Dec)
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Industrial production (MoM)
Michigan ConsumerExpectations (MoM)
CPI (MoM)
Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
ExistingHome Sales (MoM)
BloombergConsumerConfidence
Chicago Fed National Activity
NFIBSmall Business Optimism
Wholesale Inventories
Construction Spending(MoM)

Economic Forecast
1.7
2.6
2.9
1.5
2.2
2.4
2.08
0.25 0.25
0.5
0.75
1.5
2.25
2.5
1.5
1.56
0.2
1.35
2.1
2.1
2.3
7.4
6.1
5.2
4.9
4.2 4.1 4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(P) 2018(P) 2019(P)
Real GDP (YoY%) Interest Rate (%) CPI (YoY%) Unemployment (%)

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永久可查学历认证【微信：A575476】【美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证成绩单Offer】【微信：A575476】（留信学历认证永久存档查询）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。【业务选择办理准则】一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信：A575476】文凭即可二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信：A575476】即可三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。留信网认证的作用: 1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份 2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定 3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书 4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方 5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息 6:个人职称评审加20分 7:个人信誉贷款加10分 8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才 → 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：可来公司面谈，可签订合同，会陪同客户一起到教育部认证窗口递交认证材料，客户在教育部官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！

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原版定制【微信:bwp0011】《(ksu毕业证书)美国堪萨斯州立大学毕业证本科文凭证书》【微信:bwp0011】成绩单、雅思、外壳、留信学历认证永久存档查询，采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。【业务选择办理准则】一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信bwp0011】文凭即可二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信bwp0011】即可三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。留信网认证的作用: 1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份 2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定 3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书 4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方 5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息 6:个人职称评审加20分 7:个人信誉贷款加10分 8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。

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挂科购买【微信号:176555708】【挂科购买(UPenn毕业证书)】【微信号:176555708】《成绩单、外壳、offer、真实留信官方学历认证（永久存档/真实可查）》采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。【我们承诺采用的是学校原版纸张（纸质、底色、纹路）我们拥有全套进口原装设备，特殊工艺都是采用不同机器制作，仿真度基本可以达到100%，所有工艺效果都可提前给客户展示，不满意可以根据客户要求进行调整，直到满意为止！】【业务选择办理准则】一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信号:176555708】文凭即可二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信号:176555708】即可三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。留信网认证的作用: 1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份 2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定 3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书 4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方 5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息 6:个人职称评审加20分 7:个人信誉贷款加10分 8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才留信网服务项目： 1、留学生专业人才库服务（留信分析） 2、国（境）学习人员提供就业推荐信服务 3、留学人员区块链存储服务【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：客户在留信官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！

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快速办理(RWTH毕业证书)德国亚琛工业大学毕业证录取通知书一模一样

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原件一模一样【微信：bwp0011】《(RWTH毕业证书)德国亚琛工业大学毕业证》【微信：bwp0011】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）原件一模一样纸张工艺/offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。本公司拥有海外各大学样板无数，能完美还原。 1:1完美还原海外各大学毕业材料上的工艺：水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕、激光镭射、紫外荧光、温感、复印防伪等防伪工艺。材料咨询办理、认证咨询办理请加学历顾问微bwp0011 【主营项目】一.毕业证【微bwp0011】成绩单、使馆认证、教育部认证、雅思托福成绩单、学生卡等！二.真实使馆公证(即留学回国人员证明,不成功不收费) 三.真实教育部学历学位认证（教育部存档！教育部留服网站永久可查）四.办理各国各大学文凭(一对一专业服务,可全程监控跟踪进度) 如果您处于以下几种情况： ◇在校期间，因各种原因未能顺利毕业……拿不到官方毕业证【微bwp0011】 ◇面对父母的压力，希望尽快拿到； ◇不清楚认证流程以及材料该如何准备； ◇回国时间很长，忘记办理； ◇回国马上就要找工作，办给用人单位看； ◇企事业单位必须要求办理的 ◇需要报考公务员、购买免税车、落转户口 ◇申请留学生创业基金留信网认证的作用: 1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份 2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定 3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书 4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方 5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息 6:个人职称评审加20分 7:个人信誉贷款加10分 8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才

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原版定制【微信:bwp0011】《(nwu毕业证书)美国西北大学毕业证学位证书》【微信:bwp0011】成绩单、雅思、外壳、留信学历认证永久存档查询，采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。【业务选择办理准则】一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信bwp0011】文凭即可二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信bwp0011】即可三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。留信网认证的作用: 1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份 2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定 3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书 4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方 5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息 6:个人职称评审加20分 7:个人信誉贷款加10分 8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。

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Macroeconomic Analysis

1. Macroeconomic Analysis (USA) By Deepak Dharmavaram deepakdharmavaram@gmail.com (National Institute of Securities Markets) 5-Nov-2017

2. GDP Break-down By Sector (%,2016) 80.20% 18.90% 0.90% Services Industry Agriculture

3. GDP-By-Industry 159.9 264.6 288.1 420.4 562.9 749.3 784 886 1087.1 1098 1576 2175.2 2308.6 2391.6 3817.4 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting Mining Utilities Other services, except government Transportation and warehousing Arts, entertainment, recreation, and food services Construction Information Retail Trade Wholesale trade Educational services, healthcare Manufacturing Proffessional and business services Government Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing Value added to the Gross Domestic Product of the United States of America in 2016, by industry (in billions U.S. dollars)

4. GDP By Components 68.1 68.1 68.1 68.9 69.1 16.2 16.7 17.1 16.4 16.5 18.7 18.1 17.8 17.5 17.1 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8 -2.7 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 17.5 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Net exports of goods and services Real Gross Domestic Product ($Trillion)

6. Economy Data 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Consumption (annual variation in %) 1.5 1.5 2.9 3.2 2.7 Investment (annual variation in %) 9.8 5 5.5 4 0.7 Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 3.4 3.5 4.3 0.1 0.4 Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 2.2 1.1 4.4 4.6 1.1 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -6.7 -4.1 -2.8 -2.4 -3.2 Public Debt (% of GDP) 102 104 104 105 108 Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 5 3.6 4.3 2.6 3.2 Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.1 1.3 Stock Market (annual variation in %) 7.3 26.5 7.5 -2.2 13.4

7. Economic Indicators Leading Indicators Average weekly hours, manufacturing Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials ISM new order index Manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods excl. aircraft Building permits, new private housing units Stock prices, 500 common stocks Leading Credit Index Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds Avg. consumer expectations for business and economic conditions Coincident Indicators Employees on nonagricultural payrolls Personal income less transfer payments Industrial production Manufacturing and trade sales Lagging Indicators Average duration of unemployment Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Average prime rate Commercial and industrial loans Consumer installment credit to personal income ratio Consumer price index for services

8. Total Market Capitalization to GDP

10.

11. Economic Calendar Event Impact Fed Interest Rate Decision ISMManufacturingPMI Crude Oil Inventories CBConsumerConfidence (Dec) ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Industrial production (MoM) Michigan ConsumerExpectations (MoM) CPI (MoM) Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly) ExistingHome Sales (MoM) BloombergConsumerConfidence Chicago Fed National Activity NFIBSmall Business Optimism Wholesale Inventories Construction Spending(MoM)

12. Economic Forecast 1.7 2.6 2.9 1.5 2.2 2.4 2.08 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.75 1.5 2.25 2.5 1.5 1.56 0.2 1.35 2.1 2.1 2.3 7.4 6.1 5.2 4.9 4.2 4.1 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(P) 2018(P) 2019(P) Real GDP (YoY%) Interest Rate (%) CPI (YoY%) Unemployment (%)

Macroeconomic Analysis

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