Phumlani presented at Project Management South Africa (PMSA) conference in November 2020 - on the economic outlook for project managers in a time of COVID19 pandemic.

1. National
Conference
2020
• The New Economic Normal for Project Managers

2. The Project Manager in the New Normal
Introduction
“We must be bold in confronting what has impeded economic
growth and the progress of our nation.” – Finance Minister,
Tito Mboweni, September 2020

3. The state of South Africa’s economy before
COVID-19

4. The Project Manager in the New Normal
• By the end of 2019 Ramaphoria had long dissipated
• Consumer and business confidence had gone back to
record lows
• Dismal economic growth – marked by technical
recessions
• Unemployment rising – approaching 30% if you
exclude those who had given up looking for work
• Private and public sector investments were in tatters
• Foreign sell-offs in JSE equities and government
bonds
• Rising government debt and budget deficits – a dire
fiscal situation that had hurt SouthAfrica’s sovereign
credit rating with Moody’s, Fitch and S&P
• State-owned enterprises a financial mess e.g. Eskom,
SAA, Denel
• Power outages across the country
Before the pandemic

5. The Project Manager in the New Normal
South Africa’s economy underperformed the world’s

6. The Project Manager in the New Normal
Change in gross government debt for various
emerging market economies 2008–2019

7. Where we are right now

8. The Project Manager in the New Normal
Debt service costs as % budget revenue

9. The Project Manager in the New Normal
GDP growth and unemployment

10. The Project Manager in the New Normal
Debt outlook scenarios

11. The Project Manager in the New Normal
Main budget expenditure and revenue

12. The 2020/2021 macroeconomic outlook

13. The Project Manager in the New Normal
• Read GDP growth is expected to contract by
7.8% in 2020
• Unemployment now at 42%
• Current forecasts are for the economy to grow
by 3.3% in 2021, 1.7% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023
• Taxes will increase – no detail yet
• Also no detail on structural reforms
• Government debt to continue
• Debt is spiralling out of control - and is now
expected to breach 80% in 2020
• Government not credible – likely not to meet
its debt stabilization targets
The gloomy outlook

14. The Project Manager in the New Normal
The global economy in a nutshell
• The eurozone economy surged 12.7 percent on a
quarterly basis in the Q3, but the recovery could be
imperilled by lockdowns
• European countries in lockdown, Germany, Belgium,
France, Belgium, Czech, UK: Northern Ireland and
Wales
• US household spending continues to rise as the
country tries to recover from COVID19 lockdowns –
rising 1.4% in September
• U.S. GDP accelerated at a 33.1% annualized pace in
the third quarter, the Commerce Department
reported
• A surge in business and residential investment along
with stronger consumer activity helped the economy
after its worst-ever quarter in Q2.
• China’s economy performing relatively better amidst
COVID. China'sGDP is expected to grow 1.6% this
year, while the global economy as a whole
will contract 5.2%, according to projections from the
World Bank.

15. The Project Manager in the New Normal
Navigating the new normal as a project
manager
• Cope and adapt to changes
• Managing risks in a weak economy is crucial
• Have the right people
• Keep planning to survive in an uncertain
economy
• Financial projections very important

16. ThankYou