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The Performance of an Indian
Economy and Transformation in
Rural India : Macroeconomic
analysis
PRESENTED BY:
AVINASH C S
PH.D SCHOLAR
PGS15AGR6638
DEPT.OF AGRIL.ECONOMICS
3rd DOCTORAL SEMINAR
MAJOR ADVISOR:
DR. B. L PATIL
PROFESSOR AND HEAD
DEPT.OF.AGRIL.ECONOMICS
2
contents
3
Introduction
Characteristics of Indian Economy
Transformation in Rural India
Interesting facts of Indian Economy
Performance of different sector: A Macroeconomic
Analysis
Analysis of inter-relationship of Major Sectors of
Indian Economy
Conclusion
Introduction
 India is the world’s seventh-largest economy, sitting
between France and Italy.
 Its GDP growth recently dipped to 6.3% (As on September
2017); still, India is growing faster than any other large
economy except for China.
 By 2050, India’s economy is projected to be the world’s
second-largest, behind only China.
 India is home to 1.34 billion people covers 18% of the
world’s population.
 It has the world’s largest youth population, but isn’t yet
fully capturing this potential demographic dividend – over
30% of India's youth are active participation (Acc to OECD).
4
Contd..
As a rising economic powerhouse and nuclear-
armed state, India has emerged as an
important regional power.
But it is also tackling huge, social, economic
and environmental problems.
5
challenges of Indian Economy
Low per capita Income (1861.50 US$)
Excessive dependence of Agriculture and
primary producing
High Rate of Population Growth (2.17%)
Existence of chronic unemployment and
under-employment (8.28%)
Inequality in the distribution of wealth
Under-Utilization of natural resources
Nutritional Deficiency
Inadequate development of economic
organization
6
Interesting Facts about Indian Economy
1. Indians on The Move (Migration)
7.8
8
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9
9.2
9.4
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Fig.1 : Annual New Migration (In Millions)
millions
Data Source: NSSO
7
2. Biases in Perception.
According to Standard and Poors
According to Moody’S Credit Rating Agencies
India’s Credit Rating
BBB- (2009) BBB- (2015)
Baa3(2004)
Baa2(2017)
November 17,2017
8
Source: The Hindu, Nov-17-2017 9
3. New Evidence on Weak Targeting of Social
Programs
Fig.2: Allocation of Social Programmes
Source: Economic Survey 2016-17 10
4. Political Democracy but Fiscal Democracy?
Fig.India has 7 taxpayers for every 100 voters ranking us
13th amongst 18 of our democratic G-20 peers.
Source: Economic Survey 2016-17
Fig.3: Taxpayers to Voters
11
5. India Trades More Than China and a Lot
Within Itself
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
China
India
Fig.4 Trade (As percent of GDP)
78 76 74
54
30 30
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
USA BRAZIL CHINA INDIA CANADA EUROPEAN
UNION
INDONESIA
PER CENT
Fig.5 Internal Trade (As percent of GDP)
Data Source: Economic Survey 2016-17 12
6. Property Tax Potential Unexploited:
Source: The Atlas of the Human Planet 2016-17
13
ECONOMY PERFORMANCE
 GDP Growth Rate
 Inflation Under Control
 Narrowed Current Account Deficit
 Fiscal Development
 Monetary Management
 External Sector
 Agriculture and Food Management
 Industry and Infrastructure
 Service Sector
 Social Sector
 Human Development
Growth
Measures
Different
Sector
14
GDP Growth Rate
Data Source: Central Statistical Office
The slower growth is due to the decline in inventories ahead of the rollout of GST
combined with the Demonetisation exercise
5.48
6.45
7.18
7.93
6.3
5.45
6.21
6.94
7.83
6.25
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Fig. 7: GDP Growth of India (2012-2017)
GDP (%) GVA (%)
15
Inflation Under Control
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
10
9.4
5.8
4.9
4.5
3.8
Inflation rate (%)
Data Source: www.statista.com/statistics/271322/inflation-rate-in-india
56%
3%
6%
10%
4%
21% 31%
4%
9%
14%
7%
35%
Inflation rate (%)
Food and
Beverages
Pan, Tobaco and
Intoxicant
Clothing and
Footwear
Housing
Fuel and Light
Miscelleaneous
2017
2016
Fig.8: Inflation Growth
16
Narrowing Current Account Deficit
-5.4
-6.2
-2.22
-1.7
-1.1
-0.7
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Fig.9: Current Account Deficit (%)
Current Account Deficit (%)
Data Source: Reserve Bank Of India
https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=40768
India’s trade deficit during the fiscal under review narrowed to $112.4 billion in 2016-17
from $130.1 billion in 2015-16. 17
Fiscal Development
Years Liabilities of
the Centre
Liabilities of The
State
Per cent Change in
centre liabilities
Per cent Change in
State liabilities
2012-13 52.5 22.2
2013-14 52.5 22 0.0% -1%
2014-15 51.5 21.7 -1.9% -1%
2015-16 52.3 23.4 1.6% 8%
2016-17 BE 50.5 23.9 -3.4% 2%
Table 1. Outstanding Liabilities of the Centre and States as per cent of GDP
Data Source: Reserve Bank Of India
4.9 4.5 4.1
3.9 3.5 3.2
2 2.2 2.6
3.6 3.4 2.6
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 BE
Fig.10 Brrowing of the Central and States
(per cent of GDP)
Centre State
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2015-16 2016-17 RE 2017-18 BE
1.9 1.9 1.81.9 2.1
2.2
Central State
Fig.11 Capital spending by Centre and States (per cent of
GDP)
Data Source: Union Budget and State Budget
Data Source: Union Budget and State Budget
18
Monetary Management
Table 2. Year on Year Change in Monetary Aggregates as on End of March of each Year
(Per Cent)
Items 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
Currency in Circulation -19.7 14.9 11.3 9.2 11.6 12.4 18.8
Cash With bank 8.1 6.6 12.4 10.7 14.65 15.2 18
Currency with the public -20.8 15.2 11.3 9.2 11.5 12.3 18.8
Bankers Deposit with the
RBI 8.3 7.8 8.3 34 -10 -15.9 20.2
Reserve Money (M0) -12.9 13.1 11.3 14.4 6.2 3.6 19.1
Demand Deposits 42.5 11 9.8 7.8 6 -1.7 0.7
Narrow Money (M1) 3.6 13.5 11.3 8.5 9.2 6 10
Time Deposits 12.6 9.2 10.7 14.9 15 16.1 18.3
Broad Money (M3) 10.6 10.1 10.9 13.4 13.6 13.5 16.1
Source: RBI
19
External Sector
Table 3. Sector wise Share of Export and Import (Per cent)
Sl.
No
Sectors 2015-
16
2016-17
1 Engineering Goods 23.1 24.3
2 Gems and Jewellery 15.0 15.8
3 Chemicals and related
products
14.7 14.3
4 Textiles & allied products 13.7 13.0
5 Petroleum crude &
products
11.7 11.5
6 Agriculture and allied
products
9.9 9.5
7 Electronic goods 2.2 2.1
8 Marine products 1.8 2.1
9 Ores and Minerals 0.8 1.2
10 Leather and Leather
Product and others
7.1 1.9
Total 100 100
Sl.N
o
Sectors 2015-
16
2016-17
1 Petroleum Oil and
Lubricants
21.8 22.6
2 Capital goods 21.1 20.7
3 Gems and Jewellery 14.8 14.0
4 Chemicals and related
products
13.3 12.4
5 Electronic goods 10.5 11.0
6 Agriculture & allied
Products
5.7 6.3
7 Ores and minerals 5.4 5.6
8 Others 7.4 7.4
Total 100 100
Source: Computed From Department of
Commerce Data
20
Table 4. Gross Capital Formation
Period GCF in Agriculture and Allied
Sector (in ₹ Crore)
GVA in
Agricultu
re and
Allied
Sector in
(₹Crores)
GCF in Agriculture and Allied
Sector As percentage of GVA of
Agriculture and Allied Sector
Public Private Total Public Private Total
2012-13 36077 217201 253279 1524398 2.4 14.2 16.6
2013-14 33882 250252 284134 1609016 2.1 15.6 17.7
2014-15 36725 240711 277436 1604259 2.3 15.0 17.3
2015-16 44852 218295 263147 1616461 2.8 13.5 16.3
2016-17 45782 228258 274040 1620852 2.82 14.08 16.91
Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), M/o Statistics & Programme
Implementation
21
The GCF to GVA has been fluctuating from 16.6 per cent in 2012-13 to 16.9 per cent
in 2016-17. The Share of Growth increased from 16.3 % to 16.91 % due to increase of
public investment in the field of Irrigation and Insurance (target increased to 50 %
from 20 %)
Industry and Infrastructure
Table 5. Performance of Eight Core Industries Yearly Index & Growth Rate
Sector Weight 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Coal 10.3335 3.2 1 8 4.8 3.2
Crude Oil 8.9833 -0.6 -0.2 -0.9 -1.4 -2.5
Natural Gas 6.8768 -14.4 -12.9 -5.3 -4.7 -1
Refinery
Products 28.0376 7.2 1.4 0.2 4.9 4.9
Fertilizers 2.6276 -3.3 1.5 1.3 7 0.2
Steel 17.9166 7.9 7.3 5.1 -1.3 10.7
Cement 5.372 7.5 3.7 5.9 4.6 -1.2
Electricity 19.853 4 6.1 14.8 5.7 5.8
Overall Index 100 3.8 2.6 4.9 3 4.8
http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=171344
22
Over all: 2017 in line with the new base year of Index of Industrial Production
(IIP).The Index of Eight Core Industries growth during 2016-17 was 4.8 per cent as
compared to 3 per cent in 2015-16
Infrastructure (Highlights)
Logistics
Performance
World Bank’s 2016 Logistics Performance, India jumped to 36th rank in
2016 from 58th rank in 2014
Road
India has about 54.8 lakh kilometer of road network, which is the second
largest in the world. As on Today. The Government Also proposed
“Bharatmala Programme”
Railway
Indian Railways (IR) carried 1106.6 million tonnes of revenue-earning freight traffic
(P), as against 1101.5 million tonnes during 2015-16 translating into an increase of
0.5 per cent.
Civil Aviation
Indian (domestic) airlines have not captured the Indian market for
international travel unlike many other countries. UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam
Naagrik),
Port And
Shipping
India having more than 7,517 KM coast line with more than 200 ports has
both strategic and competitive advantages
Telecom
Sector India now has the second largest network in the world
Power Sector
India ranks 88th position out of 138 countries in terms of the quality of
electricity supplied.
23
Petroleum
and Natural
Gas Sector
During 2016-17, crude oil production was 36.0 MMT as against the target
of 37.1 MMT which is 97.1 per cent of the target.
Urban
Infrastructure Cities are regarded as “engines of growth” for economies.
24
Source:The Hindu, 11/01/2018
Service Sector
Country
Rank in Services Growth Rate Share of Services in Services Export growth
Overall GDP Service GVA 2001 2015
CAGR
2010-16
GVA Total Export
CAGR
2010-16
2015 2016
USA 1 1 2 2.8 1.6 79.3 33.5 5.1
CHINA 2 6 10.3 8.3 8.4 49.7 90 2.6
UK 5 4 3.4 2.4 2.2 79.9 44.6 3.3
India 7 13 7.2 9 8.5 53.2 37.9 5.6
Brazil 9 10 2.2 -2.7 1.3 72 14.9 1.8
S.Korea 11 12 4.9 2.9 3 59.7 15.6 1.8
Mexico 15 9 1.1 3.6 3.4 60.4 6.1 7.9
World 2.6 2.4 2.4 67.2 23 3.8
Table 6. Performance of Services Sector: International Comparison
Source: Computed from UN National Accounts Statistics for GDP/GVA, ILO and World Bank database for
employment and World Trade Organization (WTO) database for services trade. 25
Social Sector
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
47.7 47.5 46.7 46.1
42.2 42.5
19 19.1 18.7 19.4 19.1 19.8
33.3 33.4
34.7 34.6
38.7 37.7
Education Health Others
Fig.12: As percentage to total expenditure on social services
Data Source: Budget Documents of Union and State Governments, Reserve Bank of
India.
26
Human Development
• India’s rank of 131 out of 188 countries in the
latest Human Development Report (HDR)
2016 with the HDI value of 0.624.
• India’s HDI Rank was Upgraded with change in
Rank 4 From 2010-15
27
Analysis of inter-relationship of Major
Sectors of Indian Economy:
Methodology
Data: 1955 to 2016 (GDP)
Nature of Data: Time Series Data
Analytical tool: 1. Unit Root Test
2. Johansen’s Multiple Co-integration Analysis
3. Pair wise Granger Causality Analysis
Major Sector Selected
Agriculture Service Manufacturing Mining and
Quarrying
Industry
28
Johansen’s Multiple Co-integration Analysis
• The Johansen procedure examines a vector
auto regressive (VAR) model
• Where: Yt= Vector of Variables
• = Metrics of Parameters
• p = is the number of log
• (nX1)= Vector of Innovation
29
Pair wise Granger Causality Analysis
• Used to: test the existence and the direction of long-run causal GDP
relationship between the Sectors (Commonly used in markets)
• It is an F-test of whether changes in GDP of one sector affect GDP of
another sector
• Pln Agriculture t= Agriculturet-i+ Service t-j+e1t….
• PlnServicet= Servicet-1+ Agriculturet-j+e1t…..
• P ln stands for GDP in logarithm form and t is the time trend variable. The subscript
stands for the number of lags of both variables in the system. The null hypothesis in
Equation (1), i.e. H0:β1 = β2 = ....... = β j=0 against the alternative, i.e., H1: Not H0
, is that P ln At does not Granger cause P ln St. Similarly, testing H0: δ1 = δ2 = .......
= δj = 0 against H1: Not H0 in Equation (2) is a test that P ln St does not Granger
cause P ln At. In each case, a rejection of the null hypothesis will imply that there is
Granger causality between the variables
30
Table 7. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test results of
major sectors
Market
At level/ First
Difference T-Cal (Prob*) Remarks
Agriculture ln A -1.02 (0.0659) Non-Stationary
∆ ln A -.9.56 (0.0000) Stationary
Industry ln I -2.36 (0.2075) Non-Stationary
∆ ln I -7.42 (0.0000) Stationary
Manufacturing ln M -2.45 (0.2324) Non-Stationary
∆ ln M -6.79 (0.0000) Stationary
Mining ln m -.1.43 (0.2757) Non-Stationary
∆ ln m -7.94 (0.0000) Stationary
Service ln m -0.012 (0.0854) Non-Stationary
∆ ln m -7.42 (0.0000) Stationary
Notes: 1. The asterisks ** indicate that unit root at level or in the first differences were
rejected at 1 per cent as well as at 5 per cent significance. The (prob.*) denotes MacKinnon
(1996) one-sided p-values.
Note.2. ‘ln’ denotes GDP in logarithmic form and ∆ ln denotes the GDP Series in logarithm
form after first difference. 31
Table 8. Results of Johansen’s Multiple Co-integration Analysis for Major
Sector
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.574493 51.26847 33.87687 0.0002
At most 1 * 0.408678 31.52364 27.58434 0.0148
At most 2 * 0.338726 24.81521 21.13162 0.0144
At most 3 * 0.263903 18.38360 14.26460 0.0106
At most 4 * 0.125557 8.050101 3.841466 0.0046
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 5 cointegratingeqn (s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
32
Table 9. Pair-wise Granger causality in major Sectors
Sl.NO Null Hypothesis F-statistics Probability Granger cause Direction
1 MINING_AND_QUARYING does not Granger Cause SERVICE 0.65293 0.5244 NO None
SERVICE does not Granger Cause MINING_AND_QUARYING 0.91451 0.4066 NO
2 MANUFACTURING does not Granger Cause SERVICE 0.71239 0.4949 No Unidirectional
SERVICE does not Granger Cause MANUFACTURING 2.91567 0.0624** Yes
3 INDUSTRY does not Granger Cause SERVICE 2.36403 0.1000* yes Unidirectional
SERVICE does not Granger Cause INDUSTRY 1.78345 0.1775 No
4 AGRICULTURE does not Granger Cause SERVICE 2.91268 0.0626** Yes Bidirectional
SERVICE does not Granger Cause AGRICULTURE 2.44860 0.0640** No
5 MANUFACTURING does not Granger Cause MINING_AND_QUARYING 0.97030 0.3852 No None
MINING_AND_QUARYING does not Granger Cause MANUFACTURING 0.33570 0.7103 No
6 INDUSTRY does not Granger Cause MINING_AND_QUARYING 1.33510 0.2714 No None
MINING_AND_QUARYING does not Granger Cause INDUSTRY 0.56752 0.5702 No
7 AGRICULTURE does not Granger Cause MINING_AND_QUARYING 1.21642 0.3040 No None
MINING_AND_QUARYING does not Granger Cause AGRICULTURE 0.01334 0.9867 No
8 INDUSTRY does not Granger Cause MANUFACTURING 1.54239 0.2228 No None
MANUFACTURING does not Granger Cause INDUSTRY 0.57680 0.5650 No
9 AGRICULTURE does not Granger Cause MANUFACTURING 3.16889 0.0497** Yes unidirectional
MANUFACTURING does not Granger Cause AGRICULTURE 0.65342 0.5242 No
10 AGRICULTURE does not Granger Cause INDUSTRY 1.97603 0.1482 No None
INDUSTRY does not Granger Cause AGRICULTURE 0.43719 0.6480 No
33
Fig 12. Granger causality directions between the Sector
AGRICULTURE
MANUFACTURINGSERVICE
MINING INDUSTRY
34
35
Transformation In Rural India : Pertain to present Context
About Rural Economy
Transformation In Rural India
Agriculture
Rural Digitalization
Rural Road
Rural trasformation through Skill
36
About Rural Economy
• India is predominantly a rural country. As per the 2011 Census,
68.8 per cent of countries population
• 72.4 per cent of workforce resided in rural areas. (2011 Census)
• Between 2001 and 2011, India’s urban population increased by
31.8 per cent as compared to 12.18 per cent increase in the
rural population.
• India’s urban population increased by 31.8 per cent as
compared to 12.18 per cent increase in the rural population.
• The rural areas engaged 84.1 per cent of the total workforce
and produced 48.4 per cent of the total net domestic product
(NDP)
37
Transforming Agriculture for Farmer Prosperity:
Prof. Ramesh Chand (Kurukshetra, june 2017, Pp15-17)
DOUBLING FARMERS INCOME
Why Doubling Farmers income is needed?
 Agriculture Activities Generated Net Income of
₹.10000/cultivator/month in 2015-16
Which Is Less Than One Third of the Income of Non Farm
Workers
If Farmers Income Continue to Raise at same Rate as witnessed
during The Last Two Decades, it will not Reach even ₹ 20000 mark
in real terms next 20 years
So Special Focus is Needed to Raise income of Farmers at a Faster
Rate like “ Doubling Farmers Income by 2022”
38
Measures Suggested
1. Price at Farm Level Can be raised in Two Ways
2. Food Processing in Rural Areas
3. Modern Methods of farming (Precision
Farming)
4. High Valued Crops
ENSURING MSP
CREATING COMPETITVE
MARKET (eg: e-NAM)
39
Action Plan for Doubling Farmers Income
Action Plan for Doubling
Farmers Income TARGETD PRODUCTION OF FOODGRAINS > 275 mt (2017-18) (271.98 mt Present)
Rice 108.86 mt, wheat 96.64 mt, coarse cereals 44.34 mt, Pulses 24 mt and oilseed
at 36.60mt
2. PMFBY
 Highest Financial Support till date in Crop Insurance
 Plan to Increase Crop Insurance coverage from 20 per cent to 50 per cent by 2018-
19
Kharif: Insured Farmers = ₹ 3.90 crores
Sum Insured = ₹ 1,41,883.30 crores
 Rabi : Insured Farmers = ₹ 1.67 crores
Sum Insured = ₹ 71,728.59 crores
3. RELIEF TO FARMERS IN DISTRESS
 33 per cent or More Crop Damaged, A Farmers would get relief (Earlier 50 Per
Cent)
Amount of Relief Increased by 1.5 time
Full Minimum Support Price to be paid for food grain damaged due to excessive
Rainfall
 From 2.5 Lakhs to 4.5 Lakhs assistance to deceased Persons 40
4. PMKSY: Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana
 PMKSY to Cover 28.5 Lakh hectare area under Irrigation
₹ 50000 Crores to be invested in five year to achieve “Water to every Field”
₹ 7377 Crores of Budget increased to PMKSY
Long term Irrigation Fund ₹40000 Crores (Budget 2017-18)
Micro Irrigation Fund ₹ 5000 Goal of More Crop per Drop
 Under “ Per Drop More Crop” 15.86 Lakh Hectare Brought Under Micro Irrigation
4. Soil Health Card
 Soil Health Card to be issued to all farmers by 2018
6.04 Crores Soil health Card Distributed
2.78 Crores Soil Samples collected till 15-4-2017
5. Credit Facility
 A sum of is allocated as credit to farmers ₹ 10 Lakh Crores
Interest Subvention Scheme short term crop loan up to Rs. 3 lakh payable within
one year at only 4% per annum.
 The Government has earmarked a sum of Rs. 20,339 crore for this purpose.
41
7. e-NAM
 Objective, Benefit
 Present Performance:
• More Than 39.75 Lakh farmers and 88,474 traders are registered on this
Platform
•Agriculture Produce worth of ₹ 15.009 Crores has transacted on e-NAM
Platform (As on 23.03.2017)
•₹ 75 Lakh alloted for every mandi to set up e-NAM infrastructure
•417 Markets from 13 States have been intigrated with e-NAM
•585 regulated mandis across the country are to be integrated with the
portal by March 2018.
7. SAMPADA (SCHEME FOR AGRO-MARINE PROCESSING AND DEVELOPMENT OF AGRO-
PROCESSING CLUSTER)
 Fund Allocation ₹ 6000 Crores
Expected investment ₹31400 Crores
Handling of 334 lakh mt Agro produce valuing ₹ 1,04,125Crore,
Benefits 20 Lakhs Farmers and Generate 5,30,500 direct/indirect employment
in the country by the year 2019-20
So This Scheme is Umbrella Scheme incorporates ongoing scheme like Mega
Food Park, Cold chain and value Addition, Food Safety and quality assurance, 42
Table 10. Development of New Technologies
Technology During 2011-14 During 2014-17
New varieties of Different Field
Crop
295 571
Climate Resilient new
Technologies developed
38 52
IFS model developed by ICAR 27 45
New Technologies for Livestock
and Poultry
78 Technologies
7 Vaccine
29 diagnostic kits
145 Technologies
9 Vaccines
32 Diagnostic kits
New Livestock breeds registered 9 17
Farm Machinery 195 new prototypes 219 new prototypes
Agro processing centers
established
24 51
Food testing laboratories
Supported
15 34
Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Framers Welfare, Annual Report 43
Agriculture Transformation through ICT: Rural Area
Interactive Voice responseTelephones:
Computer
and websites
Agriculture information and Markets
Broadcasting Expertise Sharing, Advisory, Community
Satellite
Weather, Universal accessibility, remote
sensing
Mobile
Internet
and Broadband
Sensor Networks
Data Storage
and analytical
Weather, Universal accessibility, remote
sensing
Knowledge Sharing, Social Media, banking,
market platform and trading
Real time information, better data quantity and
quality decision making
Precession agriculture, actionable knowledge
44
Rural Digitalization
Financial Inclusion in Rural areas Through Digital India: Dr Dibakar Lenka, Kurukshetra,
August 2017, Pp 35-40
Volume in Million Numbers Value in Billion ₹
July
2015
Jan
16
July
16
April
16
July
15
Jan
16
July
16
April
17
Mobile
Banking
24.96 42.80 64.44 106.18 235.71 465.21 668.04 1612.17
Debit Card
Use of ATM 655.17 707.63 752.13 660.32 2077.85 2181.88 2191.65 2168.60
Use at POS 94.97 109.88 129.67 268.00 140.07 146.11 170.92 374.82
Table.11: Progress card of Mobile Banking and ATM Card
Data Source: RBI
Digital Boost to MGNREGA
 35000 Gram panchayats are covered to ensure better implementation through
Mobile Monitoring
45
Rural Road:
3,99,979 KM
4,72,695KM
46
TRANSFORMING RURAL INDIA
THROUGH SKILL DEVELOPMENT
• Status of Skill Development in India:
National Skill Development Corporation has a capacity to train 82 million
through 159 training partners having 1,408 centres in 356 districts in 27 states and five
union territories .
Schems:
 Deen Dayal Upadhyay Grameen Kaushal Yojana (DDUGKY),
 Skill India Mission,
 USTAAD,:Upgrading the Skills and Training in Traditional Arts/Crafts for
Development (USTTAD
 ASPIRE: A Scheme for Promotion of Innovation, Rural Industry and
Entrepreneurship
 Nai Manzil scheme
 Stand Up India and Digital India, 47
 Moody’s credit rating changed the India credit rating from positive to
stable outlooks which reveals India’s credit profile were broadly balanced
and this outlook will absorbs more investment in the Future.
 The India’s ratio of trade in goods and service to GDP has for overtaken
china it’s a good progress in India Internal trade as well as External trade.
 The good progress is decline in food and beverages account in consumers
price index box of commodities, favoring to decline of inflation rate.
 The Growth of India trade helping the contraction of trade deficit which is
helping in narrowing the current account deficit.
 The cancellation of legal tender of higher denomination currency made
people to increase their saving which will helps to increase the capital
formation.
 The increase in infrastructure facility in railways, civil aviation, port,
telecom sector, roads and urban infrastructure is helping in expansion of
Indian Economic output and capturing the attention of developed
countries and the recent policies framed for rural India will sustainably help
the Indian economy and all this progress in economy will makes India to be
a Global Leader in the earning Years
48
Conclusion
Thank you…………
49
Take up one Idea. Make that one idea your life
Think of it, dream of it,
live on that Idea,
Let the brain, Muscles, nerves, every part of your body,
be full of that idea,
and just leave every other idea alone.
This is the way to Success
:Swami Vivekananda
Happy National Youth Day To All………………..
50
When our Desire changes, Our Thoughts will
Changes, our action will changes and that
action changes our life.
So Go for big Desires; it Gives big thoughts,
Big Confidence, big action and over all a Big
Success
51
Table 3.3: Crop wise area and production of different pulses in Karnataka during 2015-16
Sl.No Crops
Area (ha) % Production (t) %
1 Redgram 657354 24.01 241626 23.72
2 Bengalgram 1420431 51.89 552442 54.24
3 Greengram 340527 12.44 40983 4.02
4 Blackgram 82234 3.00 20640 2.03
5 Horsegram 53718 1.96 24923 2.45
6 Field Bean (Avare) 48970 1.79 67333 6.61
7 Cowpea 67727 2.47 28064 2.76
8 Other Pulses 66539 2.43 42544 4.18
Total 2737500 100.00 1018555 100.00

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THE PERFORMANCE OF AN INDIAN ECONOMY AND TRANSFORMATION IN RURAL INDIA: MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS

  • 1. 1
  • 2. The Performance of an Indian Economy and Transformation in Rural India : Macroeconomic analysis PRESENTED BY: AVINASH C S PH.D SCHOLAR PGS15AGR6638 DEPT.OF AGRIL.ECONOMICS 3rd DOCTORAL SEMINAR MAJOR ADVISOR: DR. B. L PATIL PROFESSOR AND HEAD DEPT.OF.AGRIL.ECONOMICS 2
  • 3. contents 3 Introduction Characteristics of Indian Economy Transformation in Rural India Interesting facts of Indian Economy Performance of different sector: A Macroeconomic Analysis Analysis of inter-relationship of Major Sectors of Indian Economy Conclusion
  • 4. Introduction  India is the world’s seventh-largest economy, sitting between France and Italy.  Its GDP growth recently dipped to 6.3% (As on September 2017); still, India is growing faster than any other large economy except for China.  By 2050, India’s economy is projected to be the world’s second-largest, behind only China.  India is home to 1.34 billion people covers 18% of the world’s population.  It has the world’s largest youth population, but isn’t yet fully capturing this potential demographic dividend – over 30% of India's youth are active participation (Acc to OECD). 4
  • 5. Contd.. As a rising economic powerhouse and nuclear- armed state, India has emerged as an important regional power. But it is also tackling huge, social, economic and environmental problems. 5
  • 6. challenges of Indian Economy Low per capita Income (1861.50 US$) Excessive dependence of Agriculture and primary producing High Rate of Population Growth (2.17%) Existence of chronic unemployment and under-employment (8.28%) Inequality in the distribution of wealth Under-Utilization of natural resources Nutritional Deficiency Inadequate development of economic organization 6
  • 7. Interesting Facts about Indian Economy 1. Indians on The Move (Migration) 7.8 8 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9 9.2 9.4 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Fig.1 : Annual New Migration (In Millions) millions Data Source: NSSO 7
  • 8. 2. Biases in Perception. According to Standard and Poors According to Moody’S Credit Rating Agencies India’s Credit Rating BBB- (2009) BBB- (2015) Baa3(2004) Baa2(2017) November 17,2017 8
  • 9. Source: The Hindu, Nov-17-2017 9
  • 10. 3. New Evidence on Weak Targeting of Social Programs Fig.2: Allocation of Social Programmes Source: Economic Survey 2016-17 10
  • 11. 4. Political Democracy but Fiscal Democracy? Fig.India has 7 taxpayers for every 100 voters ranking us 13th amongst 18 of our democratic G-20 peers. Source: Economic Survey 2016-17 Fig.3: Taxpayers to Voters 11
  • 12. 5. India Trades More Than China and a Lot Within Itself 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 China India Fig.4 Trade (As percent of GDP) 78 76 74 54 30 30 12 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 USA BRAZIL CHINA INDIA CANADA EUROPEAN UNION INDONESIA PER CENT Fig.5 Internal Trade (As percent of GDP) Data Source: Economic Survey 2016-17 12
  • 13. 6. Property Tax Potential Unexploited: Source: The Atlas of the Human Planet 2016-17 13
  • 14. ECONOMY PERFORMANCE  GDP Growth Rate  Inflation Under Control  Narrowed Current Account Deficit  Fiscal Development  Monetary Management  External Sector  Agriculture and Food Management  Industry and Infrastructure  Service Sector  Social Sector  Human Development Growth Measures Different Sector 14
  • 15. GDP Growth Rate Data Source: Central Statistical Office The slower growth is due to the decline in inventories ahead of the rollout of GST combined with the Demonetisation exercise 5.48 6.45 7.18 7.93 6.3 5.45 6.21 6.94 7.83 6.25 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Fig. 7: GDP Growth of India (2012-2017) GDP (%) GVA (%) 15
  • 16. Inflation Under Control 0 2 4 6 8 10 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10 9.4 5.8 4.9 4.5 3.8 Inflation rate (%) Data Source: www.statista.com/statistics/271322/inflation-rate-in-india 56% 3% 6% 10% 4% 21% 31% 4% 9% 14% 7% 35% Inflation rate (%) Food and Beverages Pan, Tobaco and Intoxicant Clothing and Footwear Housing Fuel and Light Miscelleaneous 2017 2016 Fig.8: Inflation Growth 16
  • 17. Narrowing Current Account Deficit -5.4 -6.2 -2.22 -1.7 -1.1 -0.7 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fig.9: Current Account Deficit (%) Current Account Deficit (%) Data Source: Reserve Bank Of India https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=40768 India’s trade deficit during the fiscal under review narrowed to $112.4 billion in 2016-17 from $130.1 billion in 2015-16. 17
  • 18. Fiscal Development Years Liabilities of the Centre Liabilities of The State Per cent Change in centre liabilities Per cent Change in State liabilities 2012-13 52.5 22.2 2013-14 52.5 22 0.0% -1% 2014-15 51.5 21.7 -1.9% -1% 2015-16 52.3 23.4 1.6% 8% 2016-17 BE 50.5 23.9 -3.4% 2% Table 1. Outstanding Liabilities of the Centre and States as per cent of GDP Data Source: Reserve Bank Of India 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.2 2 2.2 2.6 3.6 3.4 2.6 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 BE Fig.10 Brrowing of the Central and States (per cent of GDP) Centre State 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 2015-16 2016-17 RE 2017-18 BE 1.9 1.9 1.81.9 2.1 2.2 Central State Fig.11 Capital spending by Centre and States (per cent of GDP) Data Source: Union Budget and State Budget Data Source: Union Budget and State Budget 18
  • 19. Monetary Management Table 2. Year on Year Change in Monetary Aggregates as on End of March of each Year (Per Cent) Items 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 Currency in Circulation -19.7 14.9 11.3 9.2 11.6 12.4 18.8 Cash With bank 8.1 6.6 12.4 10.7 14.65 15.2 18 Currency with the public -20.8 15.2 11.3 9.2 11.5 12.3 18.8 Bankers Deposit with the RBI 8.3 7.8 8.3 34 -10 -15.9 20.2 Reserve Money (M0) -12.9 13.1 11.3 14.4 6.2 3.6 19.1 Demand Deposits 42.5 11 9.8 7.8 6 -1.7 0.7 Narrow Money (M1) 3.6 13.5 11.3 8.5 9.2 6 10 Time Deposits 12.6 9.2 10.7 14.9 15 16.1 18.3 Broad Money (M3) 10.6 10.1 10.9 13.4 13.6 13.5 16.1 Source: RBI 19
  • 20. External Sector Table 3. Sector wise Share of Export and Import (Per cent) Sl. No Sectors 2015- 16 2016-17 1 Engineering Goods 23.1 24.3 2 Gems and Jewellery 15.0 15.8 3 Chemicals and related products 14.7 14.3 4 Textiles & allied products 13.7 13.0 5 Petroleum crude & products 11.7 11.5 6 Agriculture and allied products 9.9 9.5 7 Electronic goods 2.2 2.1 8 Marine products 1.8 2.1 9 Ores and Minerals 0.8 1.2 10 Leather and Leather Product and others 7.1 1.9 Total 100 100 Sl.N o Sectors 2015- 16 2016-17 1 Petroleum Oil and Lubricants 21.8 22.6 2 Capital goods 21.1 20.7 3 Gems and Jewellery 14.8 14.0 4 Chemicals and related products 13.3 12.4 5 Electronic goods 10.5 11.0 6 Agriculture & allied Products 5.7 6.3 7 Ores and minerals 5.4 5.6 8 Others 7.4 7.4 Total 100 100 Source: Computed From Department of Commerce Data 20
  • 21. Table 4. Gross Capital Formation Period GCF in Agriculture and Allied Sector (in ₹ Crore) GVA in Agricultu re and Allied Sector in (₹Crores) GCF in Agriculture and Allied Sector As percentage of GVA of Agriculture and Allied Sector Public Private Total Public Private Total 2012-13 36077 217201 253279 1524398 2.4 14.2 16.6 2013-14 33882 250252 284134 1609016 2.1 15.6 17.7 2014-15 36725 240711 277436 1604259 2.3 15.0 17.3 2015-16 44852 218295 263147 1616461 2.8 13.5 16.3 2016-17 45782 228258 274040 1620852 2.82 14.08 16.91 Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), M/o Statistics & Programme Implementation 21 The GCF to GVA has been fluctuating from 16.6 per cent in 2012-13 to 16.9 per cent in 2016-17. The Share of Growth increased from 16.3 % to 16.91 % due to increase of public investment in the field of Irrigation and Insurance (target increased to 50 % from 20 %)
  • 22. Industry and Infrastructure Table 5. Performance of Eight Core Industries Yearly Index & Growth Rate Sector Weight 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Coal 10.3335 3.2 1 8 4.8 3.2 Crude Oil 8.9833 -0.6 -0.2 -0.9 -1.4 -2.5 Natural Gas 6.8768 -14.4 -12.9 -5.3 -4.7 -1 Refinery Products 28.0376 7.2 1.4 0.2 4.9 4.9 Fertilizers 2.6276 -3.3 1.5 1.3 7 0.2 Steel 17.9166 7.9 7.3 5.1 -1.3 10.7 Cement 5.372 7.5 3.7 5.9 4.6 -1.2 Electricity 19.853 4 6.1 14.8 5.7 5.8 Overall Index 100 3.8 2.6 4.9 3 4.8 http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=171344 22 Over all: 2017 in line with the new base year of Index of Industrial Production (IIP).The Index of Eight Core Industries growth during 2016-17 was 4.8 per cent as compared to 3 per cent in 2015-16
  • 23. Infrastructure (Highlights) Logistics Performance World Bank’s 2016 Logistics Performance, India jumped to 36th rank in 2016 from 58th rank in 2014 Road India has about 54.8 lakh kilometer of road network, which is the second largest in the world. As on Today. The Government Also proposed “Bharatmala Programme” Railway Indian Railways (IR) carried 1106.6 million tonnes of revenue-earning freight traffic (P), as against 1101.5 million tonnes during 2015-16 translating into an increase of 0.5 per cent. Civil Aviation Indian (domestic) airlines have not captured the Indian market for international travel unlike many other countries. UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Naagrik), Port And Shipping India having more than 7,517 KM coast line with more than 200 ports has both strategic and competitive advantages Telecom Sector India now has the second largest network in the world Power Sector India ranks 88th position out of 138 countries in terms of the quality of electricity supplied. 23
  • 24. Petroleum and Natural Gas Sector During 2016-17, crude oil production was 36.0 MMT as against the target of 37.1 MMT which is 97.1 per cent of the target. Urban Infrastructure Cities are regarded as “engines of growth” for economies. 24 Source:The Hindu, 11/01/2018
  • 25. Service Sector Country Rank in Services Growth Rate Share of Services in Services Export growth Overall GDP Service GVA 2001 2015 CAGR 2010-16 GVA Total Export CAGR 2010-16 2015 2016 USA 1 1 2 2.8 1.6 79.3 33.5 5.1 CHINA 2 6 10.3 8.3 8.4 49.7 90 2.6 UK 5 4 3.4 2.4 2.2 79.9 44.6 3.3 India 7 13 7.2 9 8.5 53.2 37.9 5.6 Brazil 9 10 2.2 -2.7 1.3 72 14.9 1.8 S.Korea 11 12 4.9 2.9 3 59.7 15.6 1.8 Mexico 15 9 1.1 3.6 3.4 60.4 6.1 7.9 World 2.6 2.4 2.4 67.2 23 3.8 Table 6. Performance of Services Sector: International Comparison Source: Computed from UN National Accounts Statistics for GDP/GVA, ILO and World Bank database for employment and World Trade Organization (WTO) database for services trade. 25
  • 26. Social Sector 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 47.7 47.5 46.7 46.1 42.2 42.5 19 19.1 18.7 19.4 19.1 19.8 33.3 33.4 34.7 34.6 38.7 37.7 Education Health Others Fig.12: As percentage to total expenditure on social services Data Source: Budget Documents of Union and State Governments, Reserve Bank of India. 26
  • 27. Human Development • India’s rank of 131 out of 188 countries in the latest Human Development Report (HDR) 2016 with the HDI value of 0.624. • India’s HDI Rank was Upgraded with change in Rank 4 From 2010-15 27
  • 28. Analysis of inter-relationship of Major Sectors of Indian Economy: Methodology Data: 1955 to 2016 (GDP) Nature of Data: Time Series Data Analytical tool: 1. Unit Root Test 2. Johansen’s Multiple Co-integration Analysis 3. Pair wise Granger Causality Analysis Major Sector Selected Agriculture Service Manufacturing Mining and Quarrying Industry 28
  • 29. Johansen’s Multiple Co-integration Analysis • The Johansen procedure examines a vector auto regressive (VAR) model • Where: Yt= Vector of Variables • = Metrics of Parameters • p = is the number of log • (nX1)= Vector of Innovation 29
  • 30. Pair wise Granger Causality Analysis • Used to: test the existence and the direction of long-run causal GDP relationship between the Sectors (Commonly used in markets) • It is an F-test of whether changes in GDP of one sector affect GDP of another sector • Pln Agriculture t= Agriculturet-i+ Service t-j+e1t…. • PlnServicet= Servicet-1+ Agriculturet-j+e1t….. • P ln stands for GDP in logarithm form and t is the time trend variable. The subscript stands for the number of lags of both variables in the system. The null hypothesis in Equation (1), i.e. H0:β1 = β2 = ....... = β j=0 against the alternative, i.e., H1: Not H0 , is that P ln At does not Granger cause P ln St. Similarly, testing H0: δ1 = δ2 = ....... = δj = 0 against H1: Not H0 in Equation (2) is a test that P ln St does not Granger cause P ln At. In each case, a rejection of the null hypothesis will imply that there is Granger causality between the variables 30
  • 31. Table 7. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test results of major sectors Market At level/ First Difference T-Cal (Prob*) Remarks Agriculture ln A -1.02 (0.0659) Non-Stationary ∆ ln A -.9.56 (0.0000) Stationary Industry ln I -2.36 (0.2075) Non-Stationary ∆ ln I -7.42 (0.0000) Stationary Manufacturing ln M -2.45 (0.2324) Non-Stationary ∆ ln M -6.79 (0.0000) Stationary Mining ln m -.1.43 (0.2757) Non-Stationary ∆ ln m -7.94 (0.0000) Stationary Service ln m -0.012 (0.0854) Non-Stationary ∆ ln m -7.42 (0.0000) Stationary Notes: 1. The asterisks ** indicate that unit root at level or in the first differences were rejected at 1 per cent as well as at 5 per cent significance. The (prob.*) denotes MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Note.2. ‘ln’ denotes GDP in logarithmic form and ∆ ln denotes the GDP Series in logarithm form after first difference. 31
  • 32. Table 8. Results of Johansen’s Multiple Co-integration Analysis for Major Sector Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue) Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05 No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.** None * 0.574493 51.26847 33.87687 0.0002 At most 1 * 0.408678 31.52364 27.58434 0.0148 At most 2 * 0.338726 24.81521 21.13162 0.0144 At most 3 * 0.263903 18.38360 14.26460 0.0106 At most 4 * 0.125557 8.050101 3.841466 0.0046 Max-eigenvalue test indicates 5 cointegratingeqn (s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values 32
  • 33. Table 9. Pair-wise Granger causality in major Sectors Sl.NO Null Hypothesis F-statistics Probability Granger cause Direction 1 MINING_AND_QUARYING does not Granger Cause SERVICE 0.65293 0.5244 NO None SERVICE does not Granger Cause MINING_AND_QUARYING 0.91451 0.4066 NO 2 MANUFACTURING does not Granger Cause SERVICE 0.71239 0.4949 No Unidirectional SERVICE does not Granger Cause MANUFACTURING 2.91567 0.0624** Yes 3 INDUSTRY does not Granger Cause SERVICE 2.36403 0.1000* yes Unidirectional SERVICE does not Granger Cause INDUSTRY 1.78345 0.1775 No 4 AGRICULTURE does not Granger Cause SERVICE 2.91268 0.0626** Yes Bidirectional SERVICE does not Granger Cause AGRICULTURE 2.44860 0.0640** No 5 MANUFACTURING does not Granger Cause MINING_AND_QUARYING 0.97030 0.3852 No None MINING_AND_QUARYING does not Granger Cause MANUFACTURING 0.33570 0.7103 No 6 INDUSTRY does not Granger Cause MINING_AND_QUARYING 1.33510 0.2714 No None MINING_AND_QUARYING does not Granger Cause INDUSTRY 0.56752 0.5702 No 7 AGRICULTURE does not Granger Cause MINING_AND_QUARYING 1.21642 0.3040 No None MINING_AND_QUARYING does not Granger Cause AGRICULTURE 0.01334 0.9867 No 8 INDUSTRY does not Granger Cause MANUFACTURING 1.54239 0.2228 No None MANUFACTURING does not Granger Cause INDUSTRY 0.57680 0.5650 No 9 AGRICULTURE does not Granger Cause MANUFACTURING 3.16889 0.0497** Yes unidirectional MANUFACTURING does not Granger Cause AGRICULTURE 0.65342 0.5242 No 10 AGRICULTURE does not Granger Cause INDUSTRY 1.97603 0.1482 No None INDUSTRY does not Granger Cause AGRICULTURE 0.43719 0.6480 No 33
  • 34. Fig 12. Granger causality directions between the Sector AGRICULTURE MANUFACTURINGSERVICE MINING INDUSTRY 34
  • 35. 35
  • 36. Transformation In Rural India : Pertain to present Context About Rural Economy Transformation In Rural India Agriculture Rural Digitalization Rural Road Rural trasformation through Skill 36
  • 37. About Rural Economy • India is predominantly a rural country. As per the 2011 Census, 68.8 per cent of countries population • 72.4 per cent of workforce resided in rural areas. (2011 Census) • Between 2001 and 2011, India’s urban population increased by 31.8 per cent as compared to 12.18 per cent increase in the rural population. • India’s urban population increased by 31.8 per cent as compared to 12.18 per cent increase in the rural population. • The rural areas engaged 84.1 per cent of the total workforce and produced 48.4 per cent of the total net domestic product (NDP) 37
  • 38. Transforming Agriculture for Farmer Prosperity: Prof. Ramesh Chand (Kurukshetra, june 2017, Pp15-17) DOUBLING FARMERS INCOME Why Doubling Farmers income is needed?  Agriculture Activities Generated Net Income of ₹.10000/cultivator/month in 2015-16 Which Is Less Than One Third of the Income of Non Farm Workers If Farmers Income Continue to Raise at same Rate as witnessed during The Last Two Decades, it will not Reach even ₹ 20000 mark in real terms next 20 years So Special Focus is Needed to Raise income of Farmers at a Faster Rate like “ Doubling Farmers Income by 2022” 38
  • 39. Measures Suggested 1. Price at Farm Level Can be raised in Two Ways 2. Food Processing in Rural Areas 3. Modern Methods of farming (Precision Farming) 4. High Valued Crops ENSURING MSP CREATING COMPETITVE MARKET (eg: e-NAM) 39
  • 40. Action Plan for Doubling Farmers Income Action Plan for Doubling Farmers Income TARGETD PRODUCTION OF FOODGRAINS > 275 mt (2017-18) (271.98 mt Present) Rice 108.86 mt, wheat 96.64 mt, coarse cereals 44.34 mt, Pulses 24 mt and oilseed at 36.60mt 2. PMFBY  Highest Financial Support till date in Crop Insurance  Plan to Increase Crop Insurance coverage from 20 per cent to 50 per cent by 2018- 19 Kharif: Insured Farmers = ₹ 3.90 crores Sum Insured = ₹ 1,41,883.30 crores  Rabi : Insured Farmers = ₹ 1.67 crores Sum Insured = ₹ 71,728.59 crores 3. RELIEF TO FARMERS IN DISTRESS  33 per cent or More Crop Damaged, A Farmers would get relief (Earlier 50 Per Cent) Amount of Relief Increased by 1.5 time Full Minimum Support Price to be paid for food grain damaged due to excessive Rainfall  From 2.5 Lakhs to 4.5 Lakhs assistance to deceased Persons 40
  • 41. 4. PMKSY: Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana  PMKSY to Cover 28.5 Lakh hectare area under Irrigation ₹ 50000 Crores to be invested in five year to achieve “Water to every Field” ₹ 7377 Crores of Budget increased to PMKSY Long term Irrigation Fund ₹40000 Crores (Budget 2017-18) Micro Irrigation Fund ₹ 5000 Goal of More Crop per Drop  Under “ Per Drop More Crop” 15.86 Lakh Hectare Brought Under Micro Irrigation 4. Soil Health Card  Soil Health Card to be issued to all farmers by 2018 6.04 Crores Soil health Card Distributed 2.78 Crores Soil Samples collected till 15-4-2017 5. Credit Facility  A sum of is allocated as credit to farmers ₹ 10 Lakh Crores Interest Subvention Scheme short term crop loan up to Rs. 3 lakh payable within one year at only 4% per annum.  The Government has earmarked a sum of Rs. 20,339 crore for this purpose. 41
  • 42. 7. e-NAM  Objective, Benefit  Present Performance: • More Than 39.75 Lakh farmers and 88,474 traders are registered on this Platform •Agriculture Produce worth of ₹ 15.009 Crores has transacted on e-NAM Platform (As on 23.03.2017) •₹ 75 Lakh alloted for every mandi to set up e-NAM infrastructure •417 Markets from 13 States have been intigrated with e-NAM •585 regulated mandis across the country are to be integrated with the portal by March 2018. 7. SAMPADA (SCHEME FOR AGRO-MARINE PROCESSING AND DEVELOPMENT OF AGRO- PROCESSING CLUSTER)  Fund Allocation ₹ 6000 Crores Expected investment ₹31400 Crores Handling of 334 lakh mt Agro produce valuing ₹ 1,04,125Crore, Benefits 20 Lakhs Farmers and Generate 5,30,500 direct/indirect employment in the country by the year 2019-20 So This Scheme is Umbrella Scheme incorporates ongoing scheme like Mega Food Park, Cold chain and value Addition, Food Safety and quality assurance, 42
  • 43. Table 10. Development of New Technologies Technology During 2011-14 During 2014-17 New varieties of Different Field Crop 295 571 Climate Resilient new Technologies developed 38 52 IFS model developed by ICAR 27 45 New Technologies for Livestock and Poultry 78 Technologies 7 Vaccine 29 diagnostic kits 145 Technologies 9 Vaccines 32 Diagnostic kits New Livestock breeds registered 9 17 Farm Machinery 195 new prototypes 219 new prototypes Agro processing centers established 24 51 Food testing laboratories Supported 15 34 Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Framers Welfare, Annual Report 43
  • 44. Agriculture Transformation through ICT: Rural Area Interactive Voice responseTelephones: Computer and websites Agriculture information and Markets Broadcasting Expertise Sharing, Advisory, Community Satellite Weather, Universal accessibility, remote sensing Mobile Internet and Broadband Sensor Networks Data Storage and analytical Weather, Universal accessibility, remote sensing Knowledge Sharing, Social Media, banking, market platform and trading Real time information, better data quantity and quality decision making Precession agriculture, actionable knowledge 44
  • 45. Rural Digitalization Financial Inclusion in Rural areas Through Digital India: Dr Dibakar Lenka, Kurukshetra, August 2017, Pp 35-40 Volume in Million Numbers Value in Billion ₹ July 2015 Jan 16 July 16 April 16 July 15 Jan 16 July 16 April 17 Mobile Banking 24.96 42.80 64.44 106.18 235.71 465.21 668.04 1612.17 Debit Card Use of ATM 655.17 707.63 752.13 660.32 2077.85 2181.88 2191.65 2168.60 Use at POS 94.97 109.88 129.67 268.00 140.07 146.11 170.92 374.82 Table.11: Progress card of Mobile Banking and ATM Card Data Source: RBI Digital Boost to MGNREGA  35000 Gram panchayats are covered to ensure better implementation through Mobile Monitoring 45
  • 47. TRANSFORMING RURAL INDIA THROUGH SKILL DEVELOPMENT • Status of Skill Development in India: National Skill Development Corporation has a capacity to train 82 million through 159 training partners having 1,408 centres in 356 districts in 27 states and five union territories . Schems:  Deen Dayal Upadhyay Grameen Kaushal Yojana (DDUGKY),  Skill India Mission,  USTAAD,:Upgrading the Skills and Training in Traditional Arts/Crafts for Development (USTTAD  ASPIRE: A Scheme for Promotion of Innovation, Rural Industry and Entrepreneurship  Nai Manzil scheme  Stand Up India and Digital India, 47
  • 48.  Moody’s credit rating changed the India credit rating from positive to stable outlooks which reveals India’s credit profile were broadly balanced and this outlook will absorbs more investment in the Future.  The India’s ratio of trade in goods and service to GDP has for overtaken china it’s a good progress in India Internal trade as well as External trade.  The good progress is decline in food and beverages account in consumers price index box of commodities, favoring to decline of inflation rate.  The Growth of India trade helping the contraction of trade deficit which is helping in narrowing the current account deficit.  The cancellation of legal tender of higher denomination currency made people to increase their saving which will helps to increase the capital formation.  The increase in infrastructure facility in railways, civil aviation, port, telecom sector, roads and urban infrastructure is helping in expansion of Indian Economic output and capturing the attention of developed countries and the recent policies framed for rural India will sustainably help the Indian economy and all this progress in economy will makes India to be a Global Leader in the earning Years 48 Conclusion
  • 49. Thank you………… 49 Take up one Idea. Make that one idea your life Think of it, dream of it, live on that Idea, Let the brain, Muscles, nerves, every part of your body, be full of that idea, and just leave every other idea alone. This is the way to Success :Swami Vivekananda Happy National Youth Day To All………………..
  • 50. 50 When our Desire changes, Our Thoughts will Changes, our action will changes and that action changes our life. So Go for big Desires; it Gives big thoughts, Big Confidence, big action and over all a Big Success
  • 51. 51 Table 3.3: Crop wise area and production of different pulses in Karnataka during 2015-16 Sl.No Crops Area (ha) % Production (t) % 1 Redgram 657354 24.01 241626 23.72 2 Bengalgram 1420431 51.89 552442 54.24 3 Greengram 340527 12.44 40983 4.02 4 Blackgram 82234 3.00 20640 2.03 5 Horsegram 53718 1.96 24923 2.45 6 Field Bean (Avare) 48970 1.79 67333 6.61 7 Cowpea 67727 2.47 28064 2.76 8 Other Pulses 66539 2.43 42544 4.18 Total 2737500 100.00 1018555 100.00