This document provides a summary of key economic developments in Turkey. It includes sections on inflation, international developments, labor market, balance of payments, public finance, financial markets, and economic activity. Charts and tables present data on topics like CPI inflation, unemployment, exports, imports, current account balance, policy rates, and GDP growth. The document is a monthly economic report published by the Central Bank of Turkey to analyze the latest economic indicators and trends.

1. Main Economic Developments
July 10, 2017
Research and Monetary Policy Department
Daily data are updated every Thursday (previous office day if it is a holiday). Other data are updated on the
announcement day at 16.00

2. Contents
2
Inflation Developments p. 3-13
International Developments p.14-30
Labor Market Developments p.31-36
Balance of Payments Developments p.37-50
Public Finance Developments p.51-57
Financial Intermediation and Loans Developments p.58-73
Financial Markets Developments p.74-84
Economic Activity Developments p.85-101

3. Inflation Developments
3

4. Source: TURKSTAT.
(Annual Percentage Change)
CPI and Special CPI Indicators
Last Observation: June 2017.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CPI B C
4

5. Source: TURKSTAT.
(Annual Percentage Change)
CPI and Subgroups
Food: Food and alcoholic beverages.
Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold
Last Observation: June 2017.
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Services Core goods Food Energy
5

6. Source: TURKSTAT.
(Annual Percentage Change)
Services Inflation
Last Observation: June 2017.
-6
-1
4
9
14
19
24
-6
-1
4
9
14
19
24
Other Communication Transport Restaurants and hotels Rent
6

7. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Main Inflation Indicators
(Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized)
Inflation Trend
Last Observation: June 2017.
7
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-5
0
5
10
15
20
B C

8. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Services Prices
(Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized)
Inflation Trend
Last Observation: June 2017.
8
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16

9. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Core Goods Prices
(Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Change, 3-Month Average, Annualized)
Inflation Trend
Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold
Last Observation: June 2017.
9
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20

10. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
Diffusion Index
(Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Average)
Inflation Trend
Diffusion index is calculated as the ratio of the number of items with increasing prices minus
the number of items with decreasing prices to total number of items within a given month.
Last Observation: June 2017.
10
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
CPI B

11. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Percentage Points)
Contribution to Annual Inflation
Food: Food and alcoholic beverages.
Core goods: Goods excluding food, energy, alcoholic beverages , tobacco and gold
Last Observation: June 2017.
11
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Energy Services Core goods Food Alcoholic bev. tobacoo and gold

12. Source: TURKSTAT.
(Annual Percentage Change)
Domestic PPI
Last Observation: June 2017.
12
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Domestic PPI Manufacturing Industry Prices

13. Source: CBRT
(Annual Percentage Change)
Inflation Expectations
Last Observation: June 2017.
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
24 Months 12 Months
13

14. International Developments
14

15. Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
(Annual Percentage Change)
Global Inflation
Last Observation: May 2017.
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Advanced Countries Developing Countries
15
Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Israel.
Developing Countries: China, Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Argentina, Thailand, Czechia, Colombia, Hungary, Romania,
Philippines, Ukraine, Vietnam, Chile, Peru, Egypt, Morocco.

16. Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, CBRT.
(Annual Percentage Change)
Core Inflation
Last Observation: May 2017.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Developing Countries Advanced Countries
16
Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Israel.
Developing Countries: China, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Thailand, Czechia, Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Chile, Peru.

17. Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
(Annual Percentage Change)
Global Growth
Last Observation: 2017 Q1
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Advanced Countries Developing Countries Developing Countries excluding China and India
17
Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Israel.
Developing Countries: China, Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Argentina, Thailand, Malaysia, Czechia, Colombia, Hungary,
Romania, Philippines, Ukraine, Chile, Peru, Morocco.

18. Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
(Percent)
Global Policy Rates
Last Observation: May 2017.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Advanced Countries Developing Countries
18
Advanced Countries: USA, Euro Area, Japan, UK, Canada, S.Korea, Australia, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Hong Kong, Israel, New Zealand.
Developing Countries: Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, S.Africa, Thailand, Czechia, Colombia, Hungary, Romania, Philippines.

19. Source: Markit.
Markit Global PMI Indices
Last Observation: May 2017.
19
30
40
50
60
70
30
40
50
60
70 Manufacturing Services

20. Source: Bloomberg.
US House Prices (January 2005 = 100)
Last Observation: March 2017.
20
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (USA nationwide)
(Seasonally Adjusted)

21. Source: Markit.
PMI (Manufacturing)
Last Observation: May 2017.
21
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
US Eurozone Japan China 50

22. Source: Bloomberg.
(Percent)
Unemployment Rates
Last Observation: May 2017.
22
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
US Eurozone UK Japan

23. Source: Bloomberg.
Commodity Prices S&P-GS Indices
(January 2005 = 100)
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350 Energy Industrial Metals Agriculture Headline
23

24. Source: Bloomberg.
(Annual Percentage Change)
Commodity Prices S&P-GS Indices
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
-80
-30
20
70
120
-80
-30
20
70
120
Headline Energy Industrial Metals Agriculture
24

25. Source: Bloomberg.
Risk Appetite VIX
Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
25

26. Source: Bloomberg.
(Percent)
Spread (OIS Spread)
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
26
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
US Dollar Euro

27. Source: Bloomberg.
(over Bunds)
GIIPS Countries: Yield Spread
GIIPS: Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
27
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Portugal Spain Italy Greece (right axis)

28. Source: Bloomberg.
(Percent)
GIIPS Countries: Unemployment
GIIPS: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain
Last Observation: June 2017.
28
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Portugal Ireland Spain Italy Greece

29. Source:EPFR.
(Billion US dollars)
All developing countries, weekly fund flows
Portfolio Flows
Last Observation: 28 June 2017.
29
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Equities Bonds

30. Source: EPFR.
(Billion US dollars)
All developing countries, 52-week cumulative
Portfolio Flows
Last Observation: 28 June 2017.
30
-105
-85
-65
-45
-25
-5
15
35
55
75
95
-105
-85
-65
-45
-25
-5
15
35
55
75
95
Bonds Equities

31. Labor Market Developments
31

32. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Percent)
Unemployment Rate
Last Observation: March 2017.
32
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
6
8
10
12
14
16
18 Unemployment Rate (%) Non-farm Unemployment Rate (%)

33. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Thousand People)
Employment
Last Observation: March 2017.
33
4200
4500
4800
5100
5400
5700
6000
6300
6600
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000 Non-farm Employment Farm Employment (right axis)

34. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
(Percent)
Participation Rate
Last Observation: March 2017.
34
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
42
44
46
48
50
52
54 Participation Rate % Non-farm Labor Force/Population 15+ (%) (right axis)

35. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Thousand People)
Employment by Sectors
Last Observation: March 2017.
35
3400
3700
4000
4300
4600
4900
5200
5500
5800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200 Construction Industrial (right axis)

36. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Thousand People)
Employment by Sectors
Last Observation: March 2017.
36
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000 Services

37. Balance of Payments Developments
37

38. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Seasonally Adjusted, 3-Month Moving Average, Billion USD)
Foreign Trade
Last Observation: May 2017.
38
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
Thousands
Export Export (excluding gold) Import Import (excluding gold) Import (excluding gold and energy)

39. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(12-month cumulative, Billion USD)
Foreign Trade
Last Observation: May 2017.
39
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Thousands
Export Export (excluding gold) Import Import (excluding gold) Import (excluding gold and energy)

40. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Index 2010=100, Seasonally Adjusted, 3-month Moving
Average)
Real Import and Real Export
Last Observation: April 2017.
40
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Export Export (excluding gold) Import Import (excluding gold) Import (excluding gold and energy)

41. Source: TURKSTAT.
(Index 2010=100, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly)
Real Import and Real Export
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
41
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150 Export Import Import (excluding gold)
Import (excluding gold and energy) Export (excluding gold)

42. 42
Source: CBRT.
(Seasonally Adjusted, Billion USD)
Current Account Balance
Last Observation: April 2017.
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Current Account Current Account (excluding energy and gold) Current Account (excluding gold)

43. 43
Source: CBRT.
(Seasonally Adjusted, 3-month Moving Average, Billion USD)
Current Account Balance
Last Observation: April 2017.
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Current Account Current Account (excluding energy and gold) Current Account (excluding gold)

44. Source: CBRT.
(12-month Cumulative, Billion USD)
Current Account Balance
Last Observation: April 2017.
44
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Current Account Current Account (excluding energy and gold) Current Account (excluding gold)

45. Source: CBRT.
(Excluding Gold, Billion USD)
Current Account Balance
Last Observation : April 2017.
45
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Thousands
12-month cumulative
3-month moving average (Seas. Adj., right axis)

46. 46
Source: CBRT.
(Billion USD)
Current Account Balance
Last Observation : April 2017.
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Thousands
12-month cumulative
3-month moving average (Seas. Adj., right axis)

47. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Percent of GDP)
Current Account Balance
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
47
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Current Account Current Account (excluding energy and gold) Current Account (excluding gold)

48. 48
Source: CBRT.
(3-month cumulative, Billion USD)
Main Sources of External Finance*
*Long term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors’ long term net credit and
bonds issued by banks and the Treasury. Short term capital movements are sum of banking
and real sectors' short term net credit and deposits in banks.
Last Observation: April 2017.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Portfolio and Short Term FDI and Long Term CAD

49. 49
Source: CBRT.
(12-month cumulative, Billion USD)
Main Sources of External Finance*
*Long term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors’ long term net credit and bonds
issued by banks and the Treasury. Short term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors'
short term net credit and deposits in banks.
Last Observation: April 2017.
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Portfolio and Short Term FDI and Long Term CAD

50. Source: CBRT.
Real Exchange Rate
50
CPI Based REER*
(2003=100)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
REER
Developing Countries Based REER
Developed Countries Based REER
*Real effective exchange rate.
Last Observation: June 2017.

51. Public Finance Developments
51

52. Source: Ministry of Finance.
* Principal items have been selected.
(12-Month Cumulative, Contribution To Annual Percentage Change)
Contributions To Primary Expenditures*
Last Observation: May 2017.
52
-2
2
6
10
14
18
22
26
-2
2
6
10
14
18
22
26
Capital Expenditures Current Transfers Good and Services Purchases Compensation of Employees Primary Expenditures

53. (12-Month Cumulative, Contribution To Annual Percentage Change)
Contributions To Tax Revenues
53
Last Observation: May 2017.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
* Principal items have been selected.
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
VAT on Imports Special Consumption Tax Domestic VAT Corporation Tax Income Tax Tax Revenues

54. (12-Month Cumulative, As Percent of GDP)
Central Government Budget Revenues and Expenditures
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Medium Term Program (2017-2019).
* Medium Term Program (2017-2019) target.
54
14
17
20
23
14
17
20
23
Budget Revenues Primary Expenditures

55. Source: Ministry of Finance, Medium Term Program (2017-2019).
* Medium Term Program (2017-2019) target.
(12-Month Cumulative, As Percent of GDP)
Central Government Budget Balance
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
55
-6
-3
0
3
6
-6
-3
0
3
6
Budget Balance Primary Balance

56. Source: Ministry of Finance, Undersecreteriat of Treasury, Medium Term Program (2017-2019).
* Medium Term Program (2017-2019) target.
Program Defined Primary Budget Balance
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
56
(12-Month Cumulative, As Percent of GDP)
-2
0
2
4
-2
0
2
4
Primary Budget Balance (Program Definition)

57. (As Percent of GDP)
EU Defined Public Debt
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
Source: Undersecreteriat of Treasury, Medium Term Program (2017-2019).
* Medium Term Program (2017-2019) target.
57
0
20
40
60
0
20
40
60
Public Debt Stock

58. Financial Intermediation and Loans
Developments
58

59. Source: CBRT.
(Year on Year Change, Percent)
Total Loans*
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
Credit cards included
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
59
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 Total Loan Growth Total Loan Growth Rate (FX adjusted)

60. Source: CBRT.
(Year on Year Change, Percent)
Commercial and Consumer Loans*
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Consumer Loans Commercial Loans (FX adjusted)

61. Source: CBRT.
(Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average,
Annualized+, Percent)
Total Loans*
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
Credit cards included
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
61
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.

62. Source: CBRT.
(Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average,
Annualized+, Percent)
Commercial and Consumer Loans*
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
62
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60 Commercial Loans Consumer Loans
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.

63. Source: CBRT.
(13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent)
Consumer Loans*
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
63
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50 Housing Other Automobile

64. Source: CBRT.
(Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average,
Annualized+, Percent)
Total Loans*
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
Credit cards included
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation 30 June 2017.
64
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50 Total Loans (2017) Total Loans (2007-2016) Total Loans (2016)
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.

65. Source: CBRT.
(13-Week Average, Annualized+, Percent)
Consumer Loans*
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
65
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Consumer loans (2017) Consumer loans (2007- 2016) Consumer loans (2016)
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.

66. Source: CBRT.
(Adjusted for Exchange Rate, 13-Week Average,
Annualized+, Percent)
Commercial Loans*
*Total banking sector (Including participation banks)
NPLs Excluded
Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
66
+The annual growth rate of credit stock is calculated as the 52nd power of 13-week moving average of
weekly growth rate.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50 Commercial loans (2017) Commercial loans (2007-2016) Commercial loans (2016)

67. Non-Performing Loans
(Percent)
Last Observation: 30 June 2017.
67
Source: CBRT.
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0 Total Loans Commercial Loans Consumer Loans

68. (Percent)
Bad Cheque Ratio
Last Observation: June 2017.
68
Source: CBRT.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Bad Cheque Ratio (number) Bad Cheque Ratio (amount)

69. Source: CBRT.
(Flow, Annualized, Percent, 4 Week-Average)
Loan Rates
Last Observation: 23 June 2017.
69
5
8
11
14
17
20
23
26
5
8
11
14
17
20
23
26
Automobile Housing Commercial Other

70. Source: CBRT.
(Flow, 4-Week Average, Percent)
TL Commercial Loan Rate
Last Observation: 23 June 2017.
70
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Commercial Loan Rate Commercial Loan Rate-Deposit Rate Spread (right axis)

71. Source: CBRT.
(Flow, 4-Week Average, Percent)
TL Commercial Loan Rate
Last Observation: 23 June 2017.
71
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Commercial Loan Rate Commercial Loan Rate (Excluding Corporate Overdraft Account and Corporate Credit Cards)

72. Source: CBRT.
(Flow, 4-Week Average, Percent)
TL Commercial Loan Rate
Last Observation: 23 June 2017.
72
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Commercial Loan Rate-Deposit Rate Spread
Commercial Loan Rate (Excluding Corporate Overdraft Account and Corporate Credit Cards) - Deposit Rate Spread

73. Liabilities and Equity to Total Assets
(Conglomerates are excluded, for 259 firms, Percentage Share) 1,2
Indebtedness and Leverage Ratios of Non-Financial
Companies Listed on BIST
.
73
Source: FINNET, Public Disclosure Platform
(1) Including data for 259 non-financial corporations listed on BIST.
(2) Non- financial companies using FX fonctional currency, financial institutions and conglomerates are excluded from this sample. Last Observation: December 2016.
TL Liabilities /Total
Assets 28,3%
Euro Liabilities /
Total Asset 12,4%
USD Liabilities / Total
Assets 18,8%
Other FX Liabilities/
Total Assets 0,2%
Equity /Total Assets
40,2%

74. Financial Markets Developments
74

75. Source: CBRT.
Average Funding Cost of CBRT
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
75
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Outstanding Value (Billion TL) CBRT Average Fund Rate (Right Axis, Percent)

76. Source: BIST, CBRT.
(Percent)
BIST Repo-Reverse Repo Overnight Market Rates
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
76
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Interest Rate Corridor Repo-Reverse Repo Market Overnight Rates (5 Day MA)

77. Source: CBRT.
(Percent)
CBRT Rates and BIST Overnight Rates
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
77
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Interest Rate Corridor CBRT Average Funding Cost (5 day MA)
One Week Repo Rate Interbank Overnight Repo Rates_Closing (5 day MA)
LLW Lending Rate

78. Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
(01.11.2011=1, values vis-a-vis USD)
Turkish Lira and Emerging Market Currencies
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
78
Emerging market currencies include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Malaysia,
Mexico, Poland, Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, Romania against USD.
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
2,1
2,2
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
2,1
2,2 Turkey Average of Emerging Economies Turkey/Emerging Countries

79. Source: Bloomberg.
(1 month)
Implied FX Volatility
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
79
Emerging market currencies include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Malaysia,
Mexico, Poland, Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, Romania against USD.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Emerging Countries
Turkey

80. Source: Bloomberg.
(12 months)
Implied FX Volatility
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
80
Emerging market currencies include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Malaysia,
Mexico, Poland, Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, Romania against USD.
5
10
15
20
25
30
5
10
15
20
25
30
Emerging Countries Turkey

81. Source: Bloomberg, CBRT.
Currency Basket and EMBI
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
81
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1,7
1,9
2,1
2,3
2,5
2,7
2,9
3,1
3,3
3,5
3,7
3,9
4,1
4,3
Currency Basket EMBI+ Turkey (right axis)

82. Source: Bloomberg.
EMBI
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
82
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
EMBI Europe EMBI Turkey EMBI Latin America EMBI Asia

83. Source: Bloomberg.
(03.01.2012=1)
Relative EMBI
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
83
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
EMBI Europe EMBI Latin America EMBI Asia EMBI Turkey

84. Source: Bloomberg.
(Percent)
Yields Across Maturities
Last Observation: 05 July 2017.
84
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
0.5 year 1 year 2 year 4 year 10 year

85. Economic Activity Developments
85

86. Source: TURKSTAT.
(Percentage)
Annual GDP Growth
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
86
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15

87. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Seasonally Adjusted, 2009=100)
GDP
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
87
60
80
100
120
140
160

88. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Seasonally Adjusted, 2009=100)
Final Domestic Demand and Imports
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
* Final domestic demand approximately calculated by CBRT.
88
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180 Final Domestic Demand* Imports of Goods and Services

89. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Seasonally adjusted, 2009=100)
Imports and Exports
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
89
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services

90. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Seasonally Adjusted, Percentage)
Quarterly Growth of GDP
Last Observation: 2017 Q1.
90
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8

91. Source: TURKSTAT.
(Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100)
Industrial Production Index
91
Last Observation: May 2017.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
80
90
100
110
120
130
140

92. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100)
Import Quantity Index
Last Observation: April 2017.
92
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140

93. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100)
Capital Goods Production and Imports
Last Observation: For Production May 2017.
For Imports April 2017.
93
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
140,0
160,0
180,0
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Capital Goods Imports Capital Goods Production (rhs)

94. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100)
Intermediate Goods Production and Imports
94
Last Observation: For Production May 2017.
For Imports April 2017.
80,0
85,0
90,0
95,0
100,0
105,0
110,0
115,0
120,0
125,0
130,0
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
Intermediate Goods Imports Intermediate Goods Production (rhs)

95. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT.
(Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Average, 2010=100)
Consumption Goods Production and Imports
95
Last Observation: For Production May 2017.
For Imports April 2017.
80,0
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
130,0
140,0
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Consumption Goods Imports Consumption Goods Production (rhs)

96. Source: CBRT.
(Seasonally Adjusted, Percentage)
Capacity Utilization Rate
Last Observation: June 2017.
96
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
55
60
65
70
75
80
85

97. Source: CBRT.
(Increase-Decrease, Seasonally adjusted)
Export and Domestic Orders Expectations Over the
Next Three Months
Last Observation: June 2017.
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Export Domestic
97

98. Source: Markit.
(Seasonally Adjusted)
PMI
Last Observation: June 2017.
98
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
30
35
40
45
50
55
60

99. Source: CBRT.
(Seasonally Adjusted)
Real Sector Confidence Index
Last Observation: June 2017.
99
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125

100. Source: CBRT.
(Increase-Decrease, Seasonally Adjusted)
Investment Tendency *
*Question number 23 from Business Tendency Survey: Compared to the last 12 months, how do you expect your
fixed investment expenditure to change over the next 12 months?
Last Observation: June 2017.
100
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40

101. Source: Bloomberg HT, TURKSTAT, CBRT
Consumer Confidence Indices
101
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Bloomberg HT TURKSTAT-CBRT (rhs)
Last Observation: For TURKSTAT –CBRT June 2017.
For Bloomberg HT June 2017.

102. Main Economic Developments
July 10, 2017
Research and Monetary Policy Department