The document summarizes the China Economic Observer (CEO) Quarterly symposium led by experts from the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) at Peking University. It discusses the Langrun Forecast which projects China's macroeconomic indicators and is released at each symposium. Over 20 institutions now participate in the forecasting. The document also reviews projections of when China's economy will surpass the US, finding earlier projections of 2041 likely too conservative and revising the projection to the early 2020s. It notes China will still be relatively poor compared to the US and faces challenges in reforms.

1. Outlook of China’s Economy --- An Introduction to CCER China Economic Observer Feng Lu China Center for Economic Research Peking University January 2010, New York

5. 9 Macro-economic indicators are projected regularly 6.81 2.25 10.8 -4.0 15.8 33.2 15.6 0.4 10.6 Average 6.82 2.25 12.0 -9.0 15.5 30.0 17.2 0.0 10.9 CCER 6.83 2.25 21.0 5.9 15.5 31.0 14.2 0.9 11.0 BOC Internatioanl 6.82 2.25 21.5 1.3 16.5 32.8 18.5 0.6 11.1 CITIC 6.81 2.25 25.5 6.2 15.6 34.7 15.9 0.7 10.6 CSC 6.83 2.25 0.0 0.0 15.7 32.0 15.0 -0.1 10.1 CICC 6.75 2.25 15.0 -4.0 17.0 36.0 18.0 0.0 11.2 China Merchants Securities 6.77 2.25 -0.1 -10.0 16.0 35.0 16.0 -0.2 10.2 China Galaxy Securities 6.70 2.25 11.3 -8.1 15.3 35.0 18.0 1.2 11.0 Nomura 6.82 2.25 17.8 -5.2 16.8 37.0 14.3 0.3 10.5 Shenyin Wanguo 6.80 2.25 -7.0 -11.0 15.5 32.0 15.3 0.2 9.9 CASS 6.80 2.25 6.7 -1.4 15.0 31.0 14.0 0.4 10.0 UBS 6.80 2.25 9.6 -4.3 16.2 30.0 15.5 0.6 11.6 Morgan Stanley 6.83 2.25 13.2 -7.4 16.3 33.5 17.6 0.5 11.3 Merrill Lynch 6.84 2.25 5.9 -13.8 .. 42.1 16.1 0.3 11.1 Blue Ork 6.82 2.25 2.3 -3.1 15.5 34.0 13.5 0.5 10.0 BOC 6.80 2.25 8.0 6.0 15.0 30.0 13.0 0.1 9.9 HSBC 6.80 2.25 10.0 -7.5 15.5 30.0 15.1 0.8 10.4 Citibank 6.82 2.25 18.5 0.0 15.6 35.5 14.0 0.7 10.8 Guotai Junan 6.82 2.25 -8.0 -10.0 15.5 30.0 16.0 -0.1 10.0 SIC 6.83 2.25 30.0 0.0 15.8 35.0 15.2 0.4 10.2 ICBC 6.83 2.25 12.5 -8.3 15.4 30.7 16.0 1.4 10.6 BNP X rate Interest rate Import Export Resale FAI IVA CPI GDP Institutions

6. According to 11 participating institutions, China’s economy will grow nearly 10% in 2010 9.78 10.1 8.5 10 10 10.1 9.5 10.0 11.4 10.1 8.8 9.1 2010 GDP Dec 2009 Dec 2009 Dec 2009 Dec 2009 Nov 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Dec 2009 Dec 2009 Dec 2009 Releasing date Average CITIC State Information Center Standard Chartered Bank Morgan Stanley Merrill Lynch J.P. Morgan Chase Bank of Communications CCER (GSGH, Goldman Sachs) Essences Securities CICC Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institutions